In addition to the direct losses – both human lives and damage to buildings and infrastructure – domestically, the earthquake may have implications for the coming presidential and parliamentary elections. In terms of foreign policy, it triggered a quasi-coup in Turkey’s regional and international relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, Elections, and Earthquake
With all parties still clinging to their demands, there is no end in sight to the war: Russia wants to cement its control over four Ukrainian provinces, win recognition of its sovereignty over Crimea, and secure guarantees for Ukrainian neutrality. Ukraine wants a definitive end to hostilities, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory (including Crimea), and negotiations on its strategic future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
If Erdogan and the AKP lose the election, the old class will return to power in a spirit of vengeance, armed with the legal and coercive tools of the state, which even Kilicdaroglu and his allies may be unable to restrain. If the People’s Alliance is victorious, it will have five full years to groom capable heirs who can preserve the gains made by the conservative Turkish majority in the past two decades and faithfully follow in the AKP’s footsteps.
Topic:
Elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Parliament
It is clear that identity politics still carry much weight in Turkey, that the conservative voting bloc remains the largest, and that the majority of this bloc continues to believe in Erdogan and his ability to lead the country.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
The BRICS bloc has expanded to include six new member states, but this expansion may deepen and complicate differences within it and weaken its ability to make influential decisions collectively
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Economy, Alliance, BRICS, and Consensus
Driven by various considerations, ECOWAS threatened to intervene militarily in Niger to repel the coup, but the complexities of the situation may hinder or even prevent it from achieving its objectives.
Topic:
Military Intervention, Coup, Regional Security, and ECOWAS
Syria is witnessing both nonviolent and violent turmoil that extends in an arc from the north to the east, the most prominent of which disintegrating the pillars of the regime in the Sweida region, as well as the structure that brings together the SDF with some tribal factions under American backing in the eastern areas near Deir ez-Zor. These dynamics may evolve into changes in the structure and scope of control.
Topic:
Protests, Syrian War, Civil Unrest, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Due to their failure to resolve disputes through negotiations, tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have escalated, potentially to the point of a new war and even armed conflict between Iran and Turkey.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Negotiation, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
The Palestinian resistance dealt a significant blow to the Israeli occupation, leading Israel to retaliate by launching an aggressive campaign on Gaza with full Western support. The objective was to eradicate Hamas and establish a pro-Israel authority in Gaza. However, several factors may impede this outcome, as seen in comparable conflicts.
Topic:
Occupation, Deterrence, Hamas, Armed Conflict, October 7, and Al-Aqsa Flood
While Russia demands a written guarantee that Ukraine will not be offered NATO membership, Western countries are warning it of dire consequences if it launches a war on Ukraine. The balance of power between the two parties, Russia and the West, may remain on the verge of collapse, leaving Ukraine unstable and Ukrainian leadership unable to control the entire country.