While Saied initially had popular momentum behind his programme—he came into office in 2019 with a whopping 72 percent of the vote—his popularity has eroded sharply over the last year as many Tunisians have lost faith in his ability to address economic woes, improve living conditions and fight corruption.
Topic:
Corruption, Constitution, Referendum, and Autocracy
Tunisian President Saied undertook exceptional measures to assume all powers, causing sharp internal and external polarisation between those who consider them an infringement of the democratic system and those who consider them necessary measures necessitated by the deteriorating conditions.
Tunisian President Kais Saied’s rejection of governmental alteration is a reflection of a wider political crisis, stemming from the disagreement between the presidency and the parliamentary majority over the form of the political system and the distribution of powers among its pillars.
Moscow is escalating its undisclosed intervention in Libya to set up an advanced line of defence in the Mediterranean but the chances of its success are uncertain due to the nature of the NATO’s potential countermeasures and the political legitimacy that Russia’s Libyan partners will gain.
Topic:
NATO, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Tunisian President Kais Saied tapped Hichem Mechichi to form a new government, following the resignation of Prime Minister Elyas Fakhfakh, whose government lasted a brief, though stormy, five months marred by allegations of conflict of interest and a vote of no-confidence.
Although all indications are that most of the principal players favour a political resolution, the military situation will remain volatile as long as Haftar’s forces are in Sirte and remain in control of the economically vital oil region.
Events in Egypt last Sunday, the fourth anniversary of the 25 January revolution, had been gestating for almost nineteen months. Popular opposition to the 3 July 2013 regime has continued at varying scales, ranging from massive assemblies at the Rabaa al-Adawiya and al-Nahda squares to small demonstrations all over the country, with larger ones on Fridays.
But the fourth anniversary’s events marked a deep change in the popular opposition’s temperament, and the sheer size of the demonstrations was more massive than any of last year’s popular movements. This image presents a stark contrast to the message that the regime has been trying to disseminate regionally and globally, claiming it is finally and successfully in control of the country, and that the sole challenge it has to overcome today is that of the economy. This paper presents an initial reading of the events of that day, and their implications for the futures of both the popular opposition and the regime, ending with a discussion on how regional and global forces view the regime.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Revolution, Civil Unrest, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
As analysts and observers attempt to parse out the intricacies of the current Libyan conflict, the United Nations is sponsoring a dialogue to bring together the warring parties and attempt to find a political solution. This paper proposes that while there are factors which increase the likelihood of successful dialogue, the reality is that internal disputes within each of the political parties, as well as regional and international attention to other, more pressing matters, mean that the dialogue is actually an uphill battle.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, Political Parties, and Dialogue
An armed group calling itself the Tripoli Province of the Islamic State executed twenty-one Egyptian Copts in the Libyan city of Sirte last week, sparking a global wave of anger. This provoked the Egyptian government to launch hasty air raids; however, these raids surprisingly did not target Sirte, where the executions took place, but rather the city of Darna, killing and wounding civilians. This paper argues that the Egyptian government’s strikes were retaliatory and misguided by any standards. Not only did the air strikes clearly hit civilian targets, but the extent of damage, if any, inflicted on rebels belonging to the Darna Mujahideen Shura Council is still unclear. Also unclear are the whereabouts of the rebels and their camps, raising speculations about whether the air raids were just a prelude to wider Egyptian intervention, as well as the nature and extent of any such intervention.
Topic:
Government, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Military Intervention
A string of armed attacks on military personnel and buildings in cities of the Nile Valley and Sinai Peninsula are not surprising given the Egyptian army’s past and present crackdown on villages and communities in northern Sinai. This paper examines armed attacks on these areas, questions why and how armed attacks reached the Valley, explores actors behind the attacks and projects what these attacks mean for Egypt’s security and political future.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Authoritarianism, Political stability, and Coup