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891. Putin’s Friends? The Complex Balance Inside Italy’s Far-Right Government Coalition

Author:
Raimondo Lanza
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Italy’s new far-right government has been widely perceived as the potential weak spot of the anti-Kremlin European front following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: traditionally pro-Putin politicians such as Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi are back in power. Yet, after Mario Draghi’s hawkish Euro-Atlantic government fell in July and Giorgia Meloni was looking forward to a probable victory, she immediately sided with the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in a firm condemnation of Russia. Putin’s Friends? The Complex Balance Inside Italy’s Far-Right Government Coalition Download 0.66 Mo Key takeways: Italy’s good relations with Putin’s Russia have not been the prerogative of a specific party. Political, economic and energy ties developed significantly with center-left and center-right governments alike. In line with most far-right parties in the EU, Salvini’s Northern League and Meloni’s Brothers of Italy developed an appreciation for Putin’s neo-conservative regime while criticizing the EU and NATO for damaging Italy’s entente with Moscow. A potential reconciliation with Moscow goes against Italy’s national interest at this point. Russia accounts for only 1.5% of Italy’s exports against its Western partners’80%. Besides, the EU’s interconnected gas market requires a coordinated plan to overcome the energy crisis. Finally, the reconquest of Kherson by Ukraine in November makes support for the Kremlin political suicide. Meloni’s sudden pro-NATO shift has taken much of her electorate by surprise, while support for Ukraine is low in the country. Coalition allies Salvini and Berlusconi are ready to take advantage of this gap to weaken Meloni’s leadership. This is typical of Italy’s fragile parliamentary democracy. To avoid further disappointing her electorate, Meloni is rapidly satisfying other demands of theirs, on issues such as migration, family values and tax policies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Right-Wing Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Italy

892. The impact of EU sanctions on Belarus will be limited

Author:
Izabela Surwillo
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The current Belarusian crisis was set off by a disputed presidential election on 9 August 2020, which gave Alexander Lukashenko his sixth term in office. Once again, the EU’s capacity for leadership was put to the test. When faced with the escalating post-election crisis in Belarus, the EU acted relatively fast, and after at­tempts to establish a dialogue failed, first sanctions followed in October 2020. The sanctions policy sent a signal to the Belarusian regime that EU member states can reach a common agreement. However, according to regional experts, the sanctions should have been broader and implemented earlier to show support for Belarusian society. Tougher sanctions were introduced when a Ryanair flight was forced to land in Minsk in May 2021. The extended sanctions package that followed increased the targeting of financial assets and state companies that are important contributors to the Belarusian state’s budget. Broader personal and sectoral sanctions hit Belarusian national industry and Alexander Lukas­henko’s immediate political circles. In response, he has engineered a migration crisis on the EU’s external border in Poland, Lithuania and Latvia that is destabili­sing the security situation in the region. The effectiveness of the new sanctions remains limited, as even those high state officials who have been targeted generally do not travel extensively or hold assets abroad. Moreover, while some of the sectoral sanctions are particularly aggravating to, for example, Belarusian transportation and logistics sectors (e.g., banning air carriers such as Belavia), they have sometimes targeted companies that do not have very strong trading links with the West, but that cooperate extensively with Russia (e.g., the production of ma­chines for exports to the east). There are also nume­rous loopholes in the sanction’s regime (e.g., exceptions made for imports of potash fertilizers) that undermine its effectiveness and have been blamed on certain lobby groups in Europe connected to businesses that trade with the Belarusian regime. Furthermore, loopholes seem to have been left in place intentionally to leave room for future dialogue with Belarus.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

893. CHOOSING AN ETHICAL AND EFFECTIVE RESPONSE TO RUSSIAN AGGRESSION IN UKRAINE

Author:
Danielle L. Lupton
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
It’s been over two months since the crisis between Ukraine and Russia escalated with the Kerch Strait incident in November 2018. Since then, the global news media has devoted little attention to the conflict and references to the dispute from senior American and European policy makers have grown increasingly sparse. Despite an immediate public condemnation of Russia’s actions by the EU and NATO, European and American leaders have yet to coordinate a significant response. In short, the reaction has been underwhelming. This is problematic for three reasons. First, Russia’s latest act of aggression has been interpreted by many as a test of Western resolve and America’s commitment to its European allies. A failure to present a united front carries reputational consequences for the United States, the EU, NATO, and other European powers as well as their leaders. Second, the conflict in Ukraine is ongoing and the humanitarian consequences for civilians of this “forgotten” war—not to mention for Ukrainian democracy itself—are dire. Third, a lack of response to such acts of aggression could further embolden Putin, not just in Ukraine, but also in the Baltics and Eastern Europe.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Ethics, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

894. HYBRID WARFARE IS HERE TO STAY. NOW WHAT?

Author:
Kristina Hook
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
“Hybrid warfare is the new normal,” announced NATO Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges Antonio Missiroli at November’s NATO-Ukraine Forum in Kiev, Ukraine. He spoke these words at a fitting venue: Ukraine holds the dubious honor, along with Georgia, as the world’s two nations who have experienced the full gamut of Russia’s modern hybrid war tactics. These methods operate through a mixture of kinetic violence and subversive tactics to destabilize while avoiding retribution. Grounded in historic military strategies, a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia in 2007 signified an emerging form of political violence. The later invasions and annexations of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 demonstrate the Kremlin’s particular hybrid strengths, including exploiting international law by couching their presence in these countries as humanitarian or anti-piracy.
Topic:
NATO, Conflict, Hybrid Warfare, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Ukraine, France, Germany, Estonia, Georgia, Syria, Montenegro, and United States of America

895. Corruption, Impunity, and Current Reforms in Ukraine

Author:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
This briefing paper assesses the situation in Ukraine with respect to democratic reforms being undertaken in the country following the mass uprising that ousted former President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014. It examines issues of corruption and impunity, as well as the historical divide between eastern and western Ukraine at the root of ongoing conflict in the country. It is based largely on extended interviews conducted with representatives of government, civil society and international organizations in Kyiv.
Topic:
Corruption, Reform, Democracy, Conflict, Impunity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine