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191. Ukraine's accession negotiations with the European Union: reforms undertaken in ten years and the challenges ahead

Author:
Snizhana Diachenko, Viktoria Melnyk, and Dmytro Naumenko
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
10 years ago, European Union representatives were still far from enthusiastic about Ukraine. Indeed, the Association Agreement signed by President Poroshenko in 2014 which came into force three years later[1], although far-reaching, lacked a clear political objective[2]. Russia's massive invasion of Ukraine has considerably accelerated the relaunch of the enlargement policy. Indeed, after Ukraine applied for membership on the fourth day after the Russian invasion, the Union took a positive decision with extraordinary speed and granted Ukraine candidate status in June 2022. On 14 February 2023, the European Council gave the green light to the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine which started on 25 June 2024. The situation was unprecedented, and the EU seems to have accepted the geopolitical challenges and responded quickly. For Ukraine, approaching the gates of the European Union is a concrete expression of the will of the people who defended the European path during the Revolution of Dignity – otherwise known as EuroMaïdan, in 2014, and which is defending European values on the front line. European integration is proving to be a matter of national security for Ukraine, since from 2019, "the European identity of the Ukrainian people and the irreversibility of Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic path" are enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine, following amendments made on the basis of the "strategic path of the State to acquire full membership of the European Union and NATO". Prior to this, Ukraine's National Security Law of June 2018 had already defined ‘Ukraine's integration into the European political, economic, security and legal space and membership of the European Union’ as one of the State's fundamental national interests. And so, Ukraine has already started working towards its rapprochement with the EU with the implementation of this text. Given its scale and ambition, the lessons learned from Ukraine's implementation of the association agreement can help to effectively organise the accession negotiation process.
Topic:
NATO, Reform, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

192. Europe's defence against Russia

Author:
Elina Valtonen
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The large-scale offensive launched by Russia against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 marked a real turning point in the history of Europe. It radically altered the European security order, and there will probably be no turning back. The cooperative, treaty-based security order has been transformed into a system based on a balance of power, deterrence and containment[1]. By waging a brutal and illegal war against Ukraine, Russia's objectives have not changed. Its actions demonstrate total disdain for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of an independent neighbouring state. This Russian aggression, in flagrant violation of international law and the United Nations Charter, demonstrates Russia's determination to undermine the foundations of the European security order. There is nothing to suggest that, in the area of our common security, Russia will resume respect for existing treaties and commitments. It is becoming increasingly isolated from the international community. Its recent hybrid operation to redirect foreign nationals to Finland's eastern border is further evidence of this trend. Russia is and will remain on the doorstep of the European Union. It is essential that, on the international stage, the European Union continues to act resolutely and in a spirit of unity to stem Russian aggression, that it prepares for the future and that it invests in defence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

193. European agriculture and Ukrainian agriculture complement each other

Author:
Alan Hervé
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Agriculture has long been the richest, most diversified and most innovative of Ukraine's economic and social activities. Since Russia launched its aggression against Ukraine in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea, it has also become the most essential for the country and the one that raises the most questions in its relations with the European Union, which it intends to join as soon as possible. Many accuse Ukraine of unfair competition: on wheat, which is seriously disrupting Poland's agrarian economy; on poultry meat, which is said to be a threat to French production; on sugar and, increasingly, on organic products. Beyond the particular circumstances we are currently experiencing, Ukraine could occupy a place of choice within an enlarged Union. Thanks to its high-performance agriculture, it could help to strengthen the Union's role in meeting the food needs of deficit countries, at a time when, without Ukraine, the European Union is losing market share all over the world, particularly to the growing competition from Russia. Ukraine's competitiveness should not be an obstacle to fruitful cooperation, if the accession negotiations agree to include all the key issues of climate change, ecological diversity and the aspiration of a majority of rural people to contribute to solving these problems. This paper outlines the issues at stake and the solutions we need to analyse together in order to take action, and thus to set a new and determined course for a Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that has lost its way.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, European Union, Innovation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

194. The European China Strategy to Enhance Economic Security

Author:
Hyun Jean Lee
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The recent strategy change of the European countries toward China has identifiable triggering factors such as the continuation of high growth in the Chinese economy, rising status of China in the international community, and China’s FDI expansion. The West has criticized the Chinese Communist Party’s dealing with human rights issues and media control, which was further aggravated by China’s pro-Russian stance upon the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Eventually, the European countries responded with confrontational strategies against China. This study analyzes these recent de-risking methods of the EU and four European countries – i.e., Germany, France, United Kingdom, and Poland – regarding economic relations with China. Finally, the Brief concludes with an assessment of the impact of the recent changes in Europe’s China strategy on Korea and policy recommendations.
Topic:
Human Rights, Foreign Direct Investment, International Community, Economic Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

195. Exploring Refugees’ Intentions to Return to Ukraine: Data Insights and Policy Responses

Author:
Ravenna Sohst, Tino Tirado, Lucía Salgado, and Jasmijn Slootjes
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
More than two years on from the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict have faded. Although some refugees have already returned to Ukraine, despite the ongoing war, millions remain abroad. And while the European Union and countries such as the Republic of Moldova have provided temporary protection, policymakers are increasingly facing questions about whether to invest in measures to further refugees’ local integration, help them prepare for return and reintegration once conditions in Ukraine allow it, or both. This study, resulting from collaboration between MPI Europe and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), examines the factors behind refugees’ intentions to return to Ukraine or stay abroad. Leveraging IOM data across ten Central and Eastern European countries, it considers the extent to which personal and household characteristics, host-country reception conditions, and origin-country factors are linked to intentions to return in either the short or the long term. The report also provides recommendations for European and Ukrainian policymakers, international organizations, and civil-society actors regarding the ongoing response to displacement from Ukraine and approaches to managing possible future returns.
Topic:
Education, Employment, Refugees, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

196. Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine

Author:
Ron Gurantz
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management, recent events in Ukraine show that counterjustification is another important objective. Russia used covert activities and deception to try and create a pretext for its invasion, and the United States aggressively countered these efforts. This monograph presents an exhaustive study of the US military, diplomatic, and informational strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine and derives lessons about counterjustification that can be applied in future crises. The study should help military officers and government officials develop effective counterjustification tactics.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

197. Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination

Author:
C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may not always be achievable, and even when it is achievable, it may not be good enough. When that is the case, actors must determine on what terms to settle, given what they think they can achieve based on relative capabilities and cost tolerances. The resulting “maximin” solution, a practical approach where actors maximize the minimum they can achieve, provides a range of solutions. But taking only these factors into account is not likely to produce an enduring or more perfect peace. To get to a “good enough” state of peace, justice concerns—in this case framed by the just-war tradition—play a role. By impacting what counts as costs and benefits and placing boundaries on what actors should accept independently of those costs and benefits, the just-war tradition can help actors construct more durable settlements. The experiences in Ukraine and Gaza further illustrate gaps in the just-war tradition, which this book also addresses.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Russia-Ukraine War, Just War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

198. The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24

Author:
John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson assess whether US allies and partners in Europe can continue providing military assistance to Ukraine or expand assistance, while preserving their own national security and fulfilling their NATO commitments. They also explore what the Russia-Ukraine War reveals about the role of European allies in future iterations of strategic competition. Their findings indicate European allies remain firmly in support of assisting Ukraine politically, even if the reasons for allied support vary across Europe. Despite agreeing support is necessary, European allies face several hurdles on the path toward scaling up military assistance to Ukraine. The reasons for the hurdles vary, and some exceptions exist, but Deni and Aronsson find without continued, sustained US engagement, leadership, and presence in Europe, Washington may find itself with few European allies by its side. To facilitate and sustain continued success in transatlantic burden sharing, the authors provide several practical recommendations for US policymakers to consider.
Topic:
NATO, Military Aid, Allies, Russia-Ukraine War, Security Cooperation, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

199. Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War

Author:
Ron Gurantz
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various restrictions to prevent escalation. This monograph examines the role of satellites and counterspace systems in the Russia-Ukraine War’s high-technology warfare and the effects of satellite proliferation and commercialization on the conduct of the war. It also analyzes the restrictions under which space-based capabilities have been operating and the implications of these limits for future conflicts—a subject that has received little attention. Relying on an exhaustive study of open-source material and the application of limited-war theory to the case of the Russia-Ukraine War, this monograph will help officials and strategists better understand the roles satellites are likely to play in future conflicts and the limits under which states will operate them as governments seek to gain military advantage and avoid escalation.
Topic:
Space, Escalation, Military, Russia-Ukraine War, and Satellites
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

200. A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force

Author:
John A. Nagl and Katie Crombe
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This book explores the changing character of war through the lens of the Russia-Ukraine War. The authors analyze the conflict’s history, each side’s warfighting functions, the role of multidomain operations, and more. The radical changes in the character of war suggest the United States is at a strategic inflection point. The authors draw lessons from both the Ukrainians and the Russians to suggest improvements for the United States. Advances in drone technology, cyber warfare, and electromagnetic warfare pose new technological vulnerabilities and possibilities. In addition, the war has highlighted the roles of allies in deterrence and training as well as how leadership styles within the military—specifically, in the implementation of mission command—can be a decisive factor. As the Russia-Ukraine War has demonstrated, modern conflict touches a plethora of domains; thus, having sufficient personnel who are ready to fill a variety of capacities will be critical in the future. Finally, the war has shown history and justice are critical aspects of going to war and achieving peace, so crafting a narrative and satisfying stakeholders will be necessary for establishing a stable world order. The Russia-Ukraine War foreshadows the challenges the United States will face in future conflict and highlights the keys to adapting to modern warfare.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military, Allies, Russia-Ukraine War, Convergence, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine