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22. Leveraging Islam and Internal Conflict: Strategies and Consequences in Russia’s War Against Ukraine
- Author:
- Miriam Katherine Heß
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Assessment of the president of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov; the inner-Chechen conflict; and Chechen fighters on both sides in Russia’s war against Ukraine reveals how internal conflicts become crucial for international structures and how transnational dynamics – such as foreign fighter flows – pose challenges to the interplay of national and international law. By anticipating the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine beyond the Zeitenwende in Germany and Europe, policy-makers will increase readiness and preparedness for the ongoing but also post-war period.
- Topic:
- Islam, Conflict, Foreign Fighters, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Central Asia
23. What North Korea Has Been Learning From Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Tereza Novotná
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- A year ago, in February 2022, Russia invaded its neighbor, Ukraine. Russian aggression has upended the post-war security mechanisms in Europe and made the international multilateral system, including the UN Security Council, more fragile and ineffective than ever. Even though the war in Ukraine has implications for security in Northeast Asia, many Asian nations consider it a distant issue for Europeans to solve. However, this perspective mirrors what Europe’s Asian counterparts, especially the Koreans, have faced for decades. It serves as an apt analogy for explaining the dangers of North Korea to Europe. North Korea is also watching the war closely to discern what lessons or leverage can be extracted from the unfolding conflict. This short article reflects on two lessons and three opportunities that the War in Ukraine presents to Kim Jong Un and concludes with recommendations on what the Europeans could do in the near future.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Asia, and North Korea
24. One Year After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: The geopolitical struggle is not where you think it is
- Author:
- Roshni Menon and Faiza Shaheen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- When Russia invaded Ukraine one year ago, there were immediate concerns about the effects on food and energy security, and on geopolitical alignment in other countries. The world was right to be concerned, but the repercussions have been much wider and deeper than many predicted. There are two main ways in which conflict dynamics have shifted, neither of them solely caused by the war but both exacerbated by it: Russian’s war on Ukraine has shone the lens on inter-state conflict and proxy war Compounding the pandemic and climate change, a war started in one corner of the world has resulted in a global cost-of-living crisis and increasing debt for almost every country worldwide—countries that had no hand in Russia’s invasion or in the failure to respond to public health and socio-economic crisis. This analysis looks at the multiple and cascading crises (increasingly referred to as the polycrisis), and how we can take action in the face of polycrisis,
- Topic:
- Security, Geopolitics, Conflict, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
25. A Year of War: A Reporter's View of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (3/23/23)
- Author:
- Joshua Yaffa and Keith Gessen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year, Joshua Yaffa, who spent a decade living and reporting in Russia, has traveled across Ukraine—where he also has deep experience as a journalist—witnessing the war up close and publishing regularly in The New Yorker. He will share his impressions from his numerous reporting trips, which began in the early, fraught days in Kyiv, when the capital was the primary target of the Russian military; to Kharkiv, a historically Russian-speaking city that has faced relentless rocket and artillery fire; from the decimated towns of the Donbas to Zaporizhzhia, a regional capital in the south that became a waystation for Ukrainians fleeing the horrors of Mariupol and elsewhere. Yaffa will describe how the conflict looks and feels on the ground, whether for civilians trapped under bombardment or newly enlisted soldiers. He will also discuss a number of key questions at the start of the war's second year. What has been the role and effect of Western military aid? What sort of end to the fighting is possible? And how will both Russia and Ukraine be forever changed as a result?
- Topic:
- Conflict, Journalism, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
26. Russia after the Wagner mutiny: Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Kremlin’s gamble with the monopoly on violence
- Author:
- Jussi Lassila and Margarita Zavadskaya
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Vladimir Putin’s system is built on risk-averse loyalty and needs informal actors who can compensate for the inefficiency of official actors and partially satisfy the regime’s ambitious geopolitical visions. In Prigozhin’s mutiny, the same factors that had protected the regime’s integrity and deepening autocracy turned out to be vulnerabilities. The elimination of Prigozhin does not resolve this structural weakness but only shifts the problem elsewhere. Private military company (PMC) Wagner operated in Ukraine as an autonomous unit of the Russian army with more discretion on the ground and certain organizational advantages. However, PMCs should not be seen as private armies, but as extensions of the bureaucratic army or attempts to produce “pockets of efficiency”. The decentralization of armed groups weakens their ability to act against the political leadership. At the same time, this can be a ticking time bomb that critically weakens the state’s monopoly on violence.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Conflict, Wagner Group, Russia-Ukraine War, and Yevgeny Prigozhin
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
27. Cyber Crossover and Its Escalatory Risks for Europe
- Author:
- Lora Saalman, Fei Su, and Larisa Saveleva Dovgal
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- The crossover between cybercrime and cyberwarfare has intensified in recent years, particularly against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and mounting tensions between China, Russia and the United States. This paper delves into specific cyber incidents that employ cybercrime tactics with cyberwarfare objectives, allegedly involving Chinese, Russian or US actors. It examines responses within and among the private sector, the public sector and international forums. Although not directly involved in all of the cases, the European Union (EU) was impacted in a variety of ways, including as a result of spillover effects and intentional targeting. Drawing on an examination of cyber incidents, this paper highlights how emerging trends in actors, means and responses present escalatory risks for the EU and emphasizes the pressing need to bolster cybersecurity measures.
- Topic:
- European Union, Cybersecurity, Conflict, Risk, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
28. The Russian Bloodletting Strategy in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War: From Success to Hubris
- Author:
- Spyridon N. Litsas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- The article focuses on the role of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in shaping the balance of power in the Lesser Caucasus as a prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It argues that Russia implemented a “bait and bleed” strategy to discipline Armenia for its pro-Western agenda. In addition, it focuses on Turkey’s role as a supportive apparatus for Azerbaijan’s military efforts against Armenia, evaluating the connection established between Moscow and Ankara. The Nagorno-Karabakh case marked a new manipulative Russian strategy to influence the balance of power in regions with geostrategic significance for the Kremlin.
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
29. Tackling Russian Gray Zone Approaches in the Post-Cold War Era
- Author:
- Ryan Burkholder
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- To undermine U.S. military strength, state actors are increasingly operating in the ambiguous environment between peace and war known as the “gray zone.” These actions test U.S. response by exploiting the West’s rigid notion of conflict. Soviet actions toward the United States and other nations during the Cold War shared many similarities with contemporary Russian strategy. There is no current uniform definition of the gray zone, and the United States has not developed doctrine to address this challenge. Russia has adapted Soviet Cold War techniques for the digital and globalized age and effectively integrates instruments of power against the United States by targeting seams within culture, maintaining ambiguity, and controlling narratives. Countering these tactics requires that the United States modify its mindset toward conflict and improve integration of its own instruments of power.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Politics, Conflict, Gray Zone, and Hybrid Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America
30. The Devil's Advocate: An Argument for Moldova and Ukraine to Seize Transnistria
- Author:
- Anthony II. Roney
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- This article outlines the policy suggestion for Moldova and Ukraine to bilaterally invade the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) to strengthen their respective national security interests. The article examines the historical background of Moldova and the PMR, otherwise known as Transnistria, to provide context for the relationship between the two actors. As the PMR has acted as a tool of covert foreign influence for Russia, it is recommended that Moldova and Ukraine act now to eliminate the risk of Russian influence and interference from posing a larger threat in the future for these states. This article conveys the reasons, risks, and benefits for a joint invasion of Transnistria. It details the justifications for such a proposed action, but it also outlines its possible consequences. The policy suggestion is further justified when viewed under the lens of defensive realism, contrasted with Russia’s aggressive expansionist actions under President Vladimir Putin. Finally, the article gives basic strategic and tactical suggestions on how to accomplish this task.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Military, Defensive Realism, Foreign Influence, and Offensive Realism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, and Transnistria