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22. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Rethinking the EU’s Eastern Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy
- Author:
- Guntram Wolff, Alexandra Gritz, Stefan Meister, and Milan Nič
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The stagnating EU accession process needs political will and procedural changes allowing eastern candidates to advance. In the meantime, they should be more supported to use the full potential of existing opportunities for gradual economic and sectoral integration with the EU. An upgraded Eastern Partnership needs a comprehensive security dimension linking resilience, connectivity, and defense policy, as well as cooperation in the area of the Common Security and Defence Policy. The protracted regional conflicts (in Moldova and the South Caucasus) require a more active EU engagement as existing OSCE formats continue to be blocked, and Russia’s role and military presence weaken. New openings for conflict resolution mean higher demand for the EU’s diplomatic, monitoring, and peacekeeping capacities. A new eastern Neighborhood Policy should be designed for the wider region, connecting the Black Sea and the South Caucasus with Central Asia and thus creating viable alternatives to the competing geoeconomic and governance “offers” of China, Russia, and Turkey.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Governance, European Union, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
23. A Year of War: A Reporter's View of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (3/23/23)
- Author:
- Joshua Yaffa and Keith Gessen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year, Joshua Yaffa, who spent a decade living and reporting in Russia, has traveled across Ukraine—where he also has deep experience as a journalist—witnessing the war up close and publishing regularly in The New Yorker. He will share his impressions from his numerous reporting trips, which began in the early, fraught days in Kyiv, when the capital was the primary target of the Russian military; to Kharkiv, a historically Russian-speaking city that has faced relentless rocket and artillery fire; from the decimated towns of the Donbas to Zaporizhzhia, a regional capital in the south that became a waystation for Ukrainians fleeing the horrors of Mariupol and elsewhere. Yaffa will describe how the conflict looks and feels on the ground, whether for civilians trapped under bombardment or newly enlisted soldiers. He will also discuss a number of key questions at the start of the war's second year. What has been the role and effect of Western military aid? What sort of end to the fighting is possible? And how will both Russia and Ukraine be forever changed as a result?
- Topic:
- Conflict, Journalism, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
24. A Conversation with Azovstal Defender Illia Samoilenko (2/24/23)
- Author:
- Illia Samoilenko and Elise Giuliano
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- 28 year-old Ukrainian Lieutenant Illia Samoilenko was the deputy commander of the National Guards of Azov. Days before the Azovstal surrender in May, Lieutenant Samoilenko held a news conference broadcast live from a bunker beneath the steelworks. At this press conference, he described for two hours the desperate conditions that wounded soldiers faced. He also said that he and all the others saw themselves as “dead men.” Samoilenko was held in solitary confinement as a prisoner of war by the Russian Federation for 120 days before he was released in a prisoner swap last month.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Azovstal
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Mariupol
25. Propaganda Addiction: How Russians Learned to Trust the Kremlin's Falsehoods
- Author:
- Anton Shirikov
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the world was shocked to learn how often Russians fell for the Kremlin’s pro-war propaganda pushed through loyal state media. Some citizens even trusted television reports more than they believed their own family members in Ukraine. In his talk, Dr. Shirikov will explain how authoritarian media can gain and cultivate such public trust, presenting evidence from surveys and experiments he conducted in Russia in recent years. He will discuss whether Russians are–as scholars often think–sophisticated and discerning news consumers, why they find propaganda messages credible, and why so few of them seek alternative information sources. This research offers insights into how Vladimir Putin’s regime manages public opinion and maintains acceptance of the war.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
26. THE IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT ON ARMENIA'S FOREIGN TRADE: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
- Author:
- Diana Galoyan and Diana Matevosyan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- This article aimed to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Armenia’s foreign trade. The research problem was to analyze how the conflict influenced Armenia’s export and import patterns regarding geographical directions and product structure. The objectives were to examine the changes in trade turnover and identify shifts in geographical trade directions and trade structure. The study employed various statistical analysis tools, including dynamic series indicators, structural analysis, time series modeling, trend and moving average approximation, and extrapolation. Through these methods, the study evaluated the effects of the conflict on Armenia’s foreign trade. The key results indicated a positive impact of the conflict on trade turnover, with increased trade activity in various geographical directions. Export diversification was also observed as a result of the conflict. Notably, re-export played a significant role in the unprecedented growth of Armenia’s trade turnover during this period. In conclusion, the findings suggest that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict had a discernible influence on Armenia’s foreign trade, leading to changes in trade patterns and increased trade activity. The study highlights the importance of the re-exports role in analyzing trade dynamics.
- Topic:
- Economy, Exports, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Armenia
27. Pursuing justice for international crimes in Ukraine: A patchwork of multi-level and long-running efforts
- Author:
- Katja Creutz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The Russian aggression against Ukraine has triggered debates and initiatives on how to address crimes under international law committed in and against Ukraine, including war crimes and the crime of aggression. A single institution capable of dealing with all international crimes is nonetheless lacking. Tens of thousands of alleged war crimes have been reported and documented, part of which the Ukrainian courts themselves are handling. The massive caseload requires international assistance, in addition to which the ICC is also investigating alleged war crimes. The international community is divided in regard to the investigation and prosecution of the crime of aggression. As the ICC lacks jurisdiction with respect to this crime in this particular situation, European states are advancing a special ad hoc tribunal. Nonetheless, the majority of countries globally, particularly in the Global South, find it hard to support the initiative. The discussion on the best way to proceed with regard to addressing the crime of aggression committed by Russia is ongoing. Many problematic issues are being debated, ranging from political desirability to the issue of head of state immunities.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, United Nations, War Crimes, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
28. The war-induced exodus from Russia: A security problem or a convenient political bogey?
- Author:
- Margarita Zavadskaya
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Since 24 February 2022, around 800,000 Russians have left Russia in reaction to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The largest proportion of new migrants was accepted by Kazakhstan, Georgia, Turkey, and Armenia. War-induced migration should be handled like any other migration, whether it involves asylum-seekers, economic migrants, or repatriates. Excessive politicization and fearmongering around migration, including political refugees and political oppositionists, is counterproductive, as it feeds into Kremlin propaganda and belligerent narratives. While there may be concerns about espionage or saboteurs, the primary focus should be on the socio-economic impact of Russian immigration. For the receiving states, especially in the post-Soviet space, the Russian migrants pose a socio-economic challenge rather than a political one. With an increasing probability of cross-border repression – persecution or intimidation of political migrants abroad – it is essential that the EU adopts a consistent response towards political migrants, including those from Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Refugees, Borders, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
29. Nuclear deterrence in the Ukraine war: Diplomacy of violence
- Author:
- Jyri Lavikainen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s nuclear blackmailing has been the primary reason why NATO has not intervened in the Ukraine war. However, the US nuclear deterrence has allowed the West to resist Russia’s nuclear coercion, which has resulted in an unprecedented delivery of military aid to Ukraine. The US has reacted to Russia’s nuclear coercion by emphasizing its readiness to retaliate if Russia uses nuclear weapons. The war progresses in line with the historical tradition of limited wars where the opposing sides regulate the conflict by issuing threats in a game of nerves. Russia’s nuclear deterrence strategy is failing because it uses nuclear deterrence for something it is not suited for: as a coercive tool in a protracted war of conquest. As long as such threats can be countered with a threat to retaliate, their credibility is low because the benefits cannot outweigh the costs in the vast majority of circumstances. The deterrence dynamic still allows more room for manoeuvre for the supporters of Ukraine. The West should increase the military aid delivered to Ukraine with the goal of defeating Russia.
- Topic:
- NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and United States of America
30. La invasión rusa de Ucrania bajo el prisma de las teorías de control reflexivo
- Author:
- Arturo Esteban Ceballos
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- El presente artículo analiza las causas del fracaso de la fase inicial de la invasión rusa de Ucrania de febrero de 2022 desde el prisma de la teoría del control reflexivo. Esta teoría fue formulada en los años sesenta por el matemático y psicólogo Vladimir Lefebvre, y constituye hoy día una de las fuentes de inspiración de la moderna doctrina político militar de Rusia. Para ello, se ha utilizado un método hipotético deductivo sobre la base de una hipótesis que relaciona este fracaso con el manejo inadecuado de los marcos de información por parte de Rusia. Dado que la moderna doctrina militar de Rusia descansa en gran parte en las teorías del control reflexivo, el fracaso de este último provocó que no se alcanzasen las condiciones decisivas del enfrentamiento en las fases iniciales del conflicto. Ucrania había resistido las medidas activas rusas, lo que ocasionó un error de cálculo en el diseño estratégico inicial del Kremlin.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Military Strategy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Reflexive Control
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe