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21. Moldova, land of the European Union's partnership mission

Author:
Florent Parmentier
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Sharing 939 kilometres of borders with Ukraine, Moldova is closest to the epicentre of the war that began on 24 February 2022. From the very first weeks onwards, the Moldovan authorities had to build reception facilities for Ukrainian refugees fleeing the fighting in the south and east of the country. In diplomatic and strategic terms, this war has also played a role in accelerating events, since in June 2022 Moldova was, against all expectations, recognised as candidate country to the European Union. The credit for this European rapprochement goes largely to the leadership team headed by President Maia Sandu. He later, with her party (Party of Action and Solidarity, PAS), has led the nation's dynamic forces along this demanding path of transformation, despite the many difficulties that the country faces. The war has already changed Moldova’s geopolitical situation, which has to contend with a great number of hybrid threats from Russia. In other words, beyond the success of the European Political Community Summit, organised at Castelul Mimi on 1 June last, and the many political signals received on this occasion, Moldova still needs assistance on the road to European transformation. This is why the Europeans decided to launch a partnership mission on 31 May last in Chisinau together with the High Representative Josep Borrell, the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Nicu Popescu and the then Home Affairs Minister, Ana Revenco.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Regional Integration, Hybrid Threats, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Eastern Europe

22. What kind of "European sovereignty" after the Versailles Declaration?

Author:
Yves Bertoncini
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Adopted in March 2022 while Russian aggression against Ukraine was raging, the “Versailles Declaration” reflects an unprecedented political commitment by the Heads of State and government of the European Union to strengthening European sovereignty in military, energy and economic matters. While it is in line with the traditional French vision of a "powerful Europe”[1], a declaration of principles of this nature owes much to the integrating moment generated by the COVID 19 pandemic, then by the war in Ukraine[2]; it also echoes the geopolitical uncertainties encountered during Donald Trump's term of office and the increasingly hard line taken by the Chinese authorities. This convergence, which is both circumstantial and historic, has since given rise to both natural progress and tension between national players, European institutions and partisan forces, which are commensurate with the challenges to be met in terms of sharing competences and powers that have often remained largely national. It is all the more salutary to take stock of the political impetus given by Versailles at a time when the war in Ukraine continues and Sino-American tensions are escalating, since the sovereignty of our continent in the face of international challenges of all kinds will be one of the central issues at stake in the European elections of June 2024. In particular, there is a need to be clear about the political and diplomatic conditions under which "European sovereignty” can be achieved[3] to identify current or potential bottlenecks so as to overcome them more effectively[4]. This analysis also applies to France, which has initiated many of the advances made in terms of European sovereignty, but which is also beset by structural handicaps that need to be remedied if the historic significance of the Versailles Declaration is not to be weakened.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Future, Russia-Ukraine War, and Versailles Declaration
Political Geography:
Europe

23. France at the head of the Council: positive results despite the war

Author:
Eric Maurice, Justine Ducretet-Pajot, and Monica Amaouche Recchia
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The French Presidency of the Council of the European Union began on 1 January in a context of postCovid-19 recovery and the development of the dual climate and digital transition, and ends on 30 June in an environment shaken by the war in Ukraine. In the space of a few weeks, the EU-27 have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia, broken the taboo regarding financing the war, they decided to change their energy supplies and opened the door to further enlargement. They also are having to accommodate several million people fleeing war, deal with the highest inflation in decades and anticipate a global food crisis. Under the motto "recovery, power, belonging", the French presidency of the Council, commonly referred to as the FPEU[1], has had to take the new situation in its diplomatic, political and economic dimensions into consideration. Whilst, according to the institutional scheme of things, the main orientations of the European Union's response have been decided by the European Council, and the measures taken have been prepared by the Commission, the role of the FPEU has been to coordinate the adoption and implementation of these measures, and to maintain the unity of the Member States. This diplomatic and technical undertaking is what typifies a rotating Council Presidency. In the longterm work of European institutions, it organises the work of the Member States and the legislative process with the Parliament. Prepared in advance, it represents continuity in the projects that will be taken up by the next presidency, by following a programme prepared in coordination with its partners. In times of crisis such as those that Europe is currently experiencing, presiding over the Council means striking a balance between priorities defined in advance and the urgencies of the moment. An assessment of the FPEU must therefore be drawn on both levels, that of the processes and that of the events. The FPEU in its strict institutional sense, i.e. the temporary chairing of meetings of ministers and their preparatory bodies, establishes goals in terms of legislative texts to be concluded or taken forward. As part of the broader ambition of building a sovereign Europe that defends its model of society, these objectives have largely been achieved.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Sanctions, European Union, Leadership, Russia-Ukraine War, and European Council
Political Geography:
Europe and France

24. Prospects for agriculture in the new European context: the French example

Author:
Bernard Bourget
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The health crisis and the subsequent invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army has revealed the EU's dependence on agriculture and food, as well as in other strategic sectors such as energy[1]. Can French agriculture seize the opportunities offered by the new situation resulting from these major events to give it new life? As the French Presidency of the Council of the European Union enters its final month, this is an opportunity to take stock of the situation and prospects for French agriculture before the implementation of the new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 2023 and the objectives of the European Commission's Green Deal.
Topic:
Agriculture, European Union, Health Crisis, Green Deal, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and France

25. “Russia’s war in Eastern Europe is a central threat to the international architecture”

Author:
Luca Niculescu
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
n the short, medium and long term, what dangers does Russia's attack on Ukraine pose to the European Union? Is there a different perception of these dangers/threats in Eastern Europe? The Russian aggression in Ukraine, which began more than three months ago, has come at a complex time at both European and global level. Dealing with the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic already required a great deal of effort, imagination and mobilisation on the part of states and citizens. Transformations and reforms have been launched to respond to the new reality and to allow for a sustainable, environmentally friendly recovery. It was in this context that we witnessed the return of war to the European continent after 77 years of peace, with unprecedented suddenness and violence. Russia's war in Eastern Europe is not a conflict relegated to the periphery of political reality, but in its present form is a central threat to the international architecture as we know it.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Threat Perception, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Eastern Europe

26. Europe in a perfect storm

Author:
Jean-Dominique Giuliani and Pascale Joannin
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The European Union continues to encounter greater and more violent [1] crises as well as strategic surprises. The Russian war in Ukraine is the latest one in a series. However, it would seem that there are no more crises, only the acceleration of unforeseen events and profound changes. After the subprime crisis, Greek finances, Syrian refugees, the Covid pandemic, the spectre of war is back on the continent. All of these challenges are putting a strain on most EU policies and yet they confirm the relevance of the European project. In the face of these events, the European Union has made more progress in a few months than in thirty years. But it is paying for its delays and hesitations. It must revise many of its policies and resolutely project itself into a new and more brutal global world.
Topic:
European Union, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

27. “An open conflict between the West and Russia is not an option”

Author:
Dita Charanzova
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
You sit in the European Parliament in the Renew group. In what way is the re-election of Emmanuel Macron good news for the European Union? The re-election of French President Emmanuel Macron is obviously good news not only for France but also for Europe. Emmanuel Macron is one of the few leaders with a vision for Europe. His policy takes into account the realities at national level, but also the major challenges that the European Union will have to face in the coming years. In these troubled times, with a war in Ukraine, we need strong European leaders like him, and I am delighted to see that the French have put their trust in him for the next five years.
Topic:
Refugees, Conflict, European Parliament, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and France

28. Strategic dependencies, a question of sovereignty

Author:
Eric Maurice
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The Russian aggression against Ukraine triggered a massive response from Europeans and their Western allies. Instead of direct military intervention, which would have carried the risk of an armed or even nuclear escalation with Russia, the EU's response has taken the shape of sanctions against the Russian regime in many sectors of the country's economy, with the stated aim of weakening the government's ability to finance the war. The five packages of European sanctions adopted since the end of February in coordination with the sanctions of the G7 countries, have "devastated the Russian economy", deems Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The sanctions, in particular the exclusion of most Russian banks from the Swift financial messaging system, the ban on market transactions with the Russian Central Bank and the embargo on the sale of certain equipment, are having an impact because they rely on the economic and financial strength of the West and, conversely, on Russia's dependence on Western financial markets and foreign technology. Yet, after two months of war, the Russian regime continues its offensive despite numerous casualties, several tactical defeats and the impact of sanctions. Sanctions have so far failed to stop the fighting, or even to change the behaviour of the Russian President. And for the Europeans there is the question of the final stage of possible sanctions, an embargo on Russian oil and gas, which would deprive the regime of about €100 billion a year (€99 billion in 2021). In early April, EU High Representative Josep Borrell lamented that Europeans had bought €35 billion worth of gas from Russia since the war began. The reluctance of some member states, most notably Germany, to take the decisive step of an embargo highlights the fact that the other side of the EU's economic strength is its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, which is hampering its decision-making capacity and leaves it at the mercy of supplies being cut off in retaliation for sanctions. While the Commission claims to be geopolitical and the President of the Council considers the European Union's strategic autonomy to be "the aim of our generation", recent events have raised the question of its capacity to act through economic power and sanctions and its dependence on the outside world. They are forcing Europeans to rethink their relationship with the economy and trade.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Sanctions, Gas, Military Intervention, Russia-Ukraine War, and Dependency
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

29. Reception of Ukrainian refugees. Between emergency responses and long-term solutions

Author:
Ramona Bloj and Stefanie Buzmaniuk
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
By mid-April 2022, more than 7.1 million Ukrainians had been forced to move within their country. More than 4.6 million people have had to flee Ukraine since 24 February when the Russian invasion began (Figure 1). In total, more than a quarter of the population has been forced to leave their homes as a result of Russia's aggression. For Europe, this is the largest movement of a population since the Second World War, and the challenges for neighbouring countries - Moldova[1], Romania, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia - hosting the largest numbers of refugees are significant, from securing temporary accommodation and immediate access to health care, to ensuring children's education and access to labour markets.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Refugees, Borders, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

30. From the Russian Pact to the Green Deal?

Author:
Gilles Lepesant
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has, among other things, caused an energy crisis comparable to the oil crisis of the 1970s, one that goes beyond oil however since Russia is also a major supplier of gas and coal. By 2021, it was the EU's largest supplier of all three fossil fuels. The military hostilities started in a context dominated by price pressures induced by global economic recovery and by an abnormally low level of storage sites in Europe. In this context a policy of diversification as part of RepowerEU was launched in view - as put forward by the European Commission - to do away with the supply of fossil fuels from Russia by 2030. Beyond the quest for new short-term suppliers, the question of a radical acceleration of the energy transition in Europe in favour of low-carbon energy sources and sobriety is now being asked. This paper highlights the opportunity for Europeans to break not only with their dependence on Russia but also, and above all, with fossil fuels. It outlines the challenges to be met by underlining the extent to which the current stage of energy decoupling from Russia marks a turning point and closes several decades of close interdependence between Russian deposits and the European economies.
Topic:
European Union, Fossil Fuels, Green Deal, Energy Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe