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2. Putin’s Next, Best Move – The Logic and Limits of Russian Action on Ukraine
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Moscow will act when and if it declares that the West has escalated contention rather than responding positively to its entreaties – principally those regarding NATO expansion and implementation of the Minsk II agreement. Recent, new US/NATO troop deployments and weapon transfers to Ukraine may already count as relevant escalation. Russian forces surrounding Ukraine stand at an exceptionally high level of readiness and significantly exceed the scale of previous deployments. Nonetheless, a full-scale invasion aiming to seize the whole of Ukraine is highly unlikely. Indeed, Russian action may involve no more than large-scale conveyance of weapons and munitions to the rebel areas, possibly along with an influx of “volunteers.” Several other options ranging between these two are discussed below.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
3. Fundamental Design Principles of Confidence-Building Defense
- Author:
- Carl Conetta and Lutz Unterseher
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- A selection of slides prepared for seminars held in Holland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Belarus in 1994. The seminars were organized and co-sponsored by the Study Group on Alternative Security Policy (SAS) and the Project on Defense Alternatives (PDA). Twenty-five years later the principles of Confidence-Building Defense remain relevant to the efforts of North and South Korea to construct a “peace regime” after many decades of enmity and military standoff.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, National Security, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, North Korea, Hungary, Czech Republic, Holland, and Belarus
4. Sustainable Defense: More Security, Less Spending
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The United States must partner with other nations in addressing challenges like climate change, epidemics of disease, nuclear proliferation, and human rights and humanitarian crises. None of these challenges are best dealt with by military force. Rather, they will depend on building non-military capacities for diplomacy, economic assistance, and scientific and cultural cooperation and exchange which have been allowed to languish in an era in which the military has been treated as the primary tool of U.S. security policy.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Economy, Sustainability, and Hybrid Threats
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
5. Going for Broke: The Budgetary Consequences of Current US Defense Strategy.
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The sharp rise in the Pentagon's base budget since 1998 (46% in real terms) is substantially due to strategic choice, not security requirements, per se. It reflects a refusal to set priorities as well as a move away from the traditional goals of military deterrence, containment, and defense to more ambitious ends: threat prevention, command of the commons, and the transformation of the global security environment. The geographic scope of routine US military activity also has expanded.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Debt
- Political Geography:
- United States
6. The Pentagon's New Mission Set: A Sustainable Choice?
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Today, the United States enjoys an abundance of military power, but it is a uniquely expensive asset. During the past 20 years we have sought new ways to put this asset to work. Reviewing the change in the Pentagon's mission set, several broad trends are discernible: Mission objectives have grown much more ambitious, generally. The geographic scope for intensive US military efforts has widened significantly. Across the globe, the focus of US military action and investment has become less discriminate and more sweeping or comprehensive. Missions that put US “boots on the ground” in foreign nations in either a direct action, advisory, or capacity- building role have grown much more prominent. US policy continues to emphasize multinational approaches to addressing security issues, however the trend has been for the United States to play an ever more prominent role as the convener, governor, and quartermaster of joint action.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Debt
- Political Geography:
- United States
7. Pentagon cuts in context: No reason for "doomsday" hysteria
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Recent Obama administration defense budget requests and proposals all fall within a narrow range of possible expenditures for the 2013-2023 period. All have kept the Pentagon's base budget above Cold War spending peaks. The President's 13 April proposal is no exception. It is a modest step that, at best, aims to retract future budget plans by 6.5 percent or $400 billion. The resulting average annual Pentagon base budget f or 2013-2023 would be close to today's level in real terms. The President's slice into non-security discretionary spending plans is audacious by comparison, reversing the proportionately suggested by his Fiscal Commission, and increasing the proportion of discretionary spending allocated to the Pentagon. The President's proposed new constraints on Pentagon budget growth hardly risk America's role in the world, as some contend, and by themselves do not necessitate a strategic review. Still, the President's launch of a such a review is a welcome development. It can help return America' s military posture to a reasonable and sustainable footing – provided that it elicits broad debate, solicits alternative viewpoints, and reaches beyond a $400 billion crease in the Pentagon's future budget plans.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Cold War, and Debt
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
8. An Undisciplined Defense: Understanding the $2 Trillion Surge in US Defense Spending
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The rise in US defense spending since 1998 has no precedent in all the years since the Korean war. It most readily compares with two earlier, but lesser spending surges: the 1958-1968 surge of 43% and the 1975-1985 surge of 57%. The post-Cold War retrenchment of the US military reached its limit in 1998 with DoD's budget settling at an ebb point of $361.5 billion (2010 USD). If we treat the 1998 budget level as a “baseline” and project it forward to 2010 (adjusting for inflation), we find that the total amount of funds that have been given to DoD above this level during the years 1999-2010 is $2.15 trillion (in 2010 dollars). This figure constitutes what we call the post-1998 spending surge. (All told, DoD budget authority for the period was $6.5 trillion in 2010 dollars).
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
9. Forceful Engagement: Rethinking the Role of Military Power in US Global Policy
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- A key objective of the new administration will be to "rebalance" America's foreign and security policy "tool kit", giving greater prominence to diplomacy and other elements of "soft power". And it is easy to see why. The surge in US defense spending and military activity that began ten years ago, and then sharply accelerated after the 11 September 2001 attacks, has had disconcerting results-to say the least. But setting an effective alternative course for US policy will not be as easy to accomplish as some assume.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
10. America Speaks Out: Is the United States spending too much on defense?
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- On 1-4 February 2007, the Gallup polling organization asked a representative sample of US citizens if they thought the United States was spending too little, too much, or just the right amount on defense and the military.{1} For the first time since the mid-1990s, a plurality of Americans said that the country was spending too much. The surprising result of the survey shows current public attitudes to approximate those that prevailed in March 1993, shortly after former President Bill Clinton took office. Today, 43 percent of Americans say that the country is spending “too much” on the military, while 20 percent say “too little”. In 1993, the balance of opinion was 42 percent saying “too much” and 17 percent saying too little.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and America