As the Israeli conflict in Gaza marks its third month, Israel has been unable to achieve military decisiveness. The resolution of the hostage issue and the administration of the Strip remain uncertain. Russia and Iran have taken advantage of the situation to strengthen their positions, leading to an expansion in the circle of those opposing Israel.
Topic:
Hamas, Armed Conflict, Hostage Crisis, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
The Turkish position on Gaza was weak and lackluster in confronting the Israeli aggression on Gaza perhaps due to the external limits imposed on Turkish power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Constraints
Proposals for Gaza's future post-war vary from direct reoccupation to resistance factions' control, with an intermediary suggestion of local authority under the Palestinian Authority, supported by Arabs. The pivotal factor is the resistance's ability to defeat the occupation.
Topic:
Governance, Reconstruction, Occupation, Hamas, Armed Conflict, Palestinian Authority, 2023 Gaza War, and Armed Resistance
Indicators point to a heightened risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, with Israel leading efforts to restore security in its northern region for resident return and to deter Hezbollah from its borders. However, high war costs and US opposition could limit escalation.
Topic:
Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, Escalation, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and United States of America
Netanyahu insists on violating the rules of engagement established since 7 October 2023, relying on military solutions to achieve his political goals and Israel's strategic objectives. However, this can only be realised if the link between Palestinian resistance in Gaza and its external support fronts is severed.
Topic:
Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Rules of Engagement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon
Ukrainian forces are expanding their incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, a surprise not seen since World War II. The Russian response has been traditional and disorganised. If Russia fails to repel the advance, Ukraine could regain control over the conflict and set new negotiation terms.
Topic:
Security, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Incursion
Due to their failure to resolve disputes through negotiations, tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have escalated, potentially to the point of a new war and even armed conflict between Iran and Turkey.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Negotiation, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
The Palestinian resistance dealt a significant blow to the Israeli occupation, leading Israel to retaliate by launching an aggressive campaign on Gaza with full Western support. The objective was to eradicate Hamas and establish a pro-Israel authority in Gaza. However, several factors may impede this outcome, as seen in comparable conflicts.
Topic:
Occupation, Deterrence, Hamas, Armed Conflict, October 7, and Al-Aqsa Flood
While Russia demands a written guarantee that Ukraine will not be offered NATO membership, Western countries are warning it of dire consequences if it launches a war on Ukraine. The balance of power between the two parties, Russia and the West, may remain on the verge of collapse, leaving Ukraine unstable and Ukrainian leadership unable to control the entire country.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in its second month witnessed several developments, including the failure of the Russian forces to achieve a quick and decisive military victory and the Russian leadership's reduction of its primary objectives.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War