As the Israeli conflict in Gaza marks its third month, Israel has been unable to achieve military decisiveness. The resolution of the hostage issue and the administration of the Strip remain uncertain. Russia and Iran have taken advantage of the situation to strengthen their positions, leading to an expansion in the circle of those opposing Israel.
Topic:
Hamas, Armed Conflict, Hostage Crisis, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
The Turkish position on Gaza was weak and lackluster in confronting the Israeli aggression on Gaza perhaps due to the external limits imposed on Turkish power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Constraints
The Houthis have succeeded throughout the period following the initiation of their military support for Gaza in disrupting commercial shipping passing through the Red Sea to countries they consider hostile; and the military operations of the US alliance inadvertently aided them in achieving their objective.
Topic:
Maritime Commerce, Houthis, Shipping, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, United States of America, and Red Sea
Turkey’s municipal elections were held on 31 March 2024, just nine months after the presidential and parliamentary elections that returned Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the presidency and gave the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a parliamentary majority. While local elections do have the import of national polls, they are a good indicator of trends in public opinion and the relationship between the governing party and its grassroots base.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and AKP
Proposals for Gaza's future post-war vary from direct reoccupation to resistance factions' control, with an intermediary suggestion of local authority under the Palestinian Authority, supported by Arabs. The pivotal factor is the resistance's ability to defeat the occupation.
Topic:
Governance, Reconstruction, Occupation, Hamas, Armed Conflict, Palestinian Authority, 2023 Gaza War, and Armed Resistance
Indicators point to a heightened risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, with Israel leading efforts to restore security in its northern region for resident return and to deter Hezbollah from its borders. However, high war costs and US opposition could limit escalation.
Topic:
Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, Escalation, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and United States of America
Turkish President Erdoğan has expressed his desire to meet with Syrian President Assad after years of hostility. However, reconciliation is complex due to conflicting goals: Erdoğan seeks to legitimise arrangements securing his gains, while Assad demands a full Turkish withdrawal from Syrian affairs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Rapprochement, and Bashar al-Assad
Netanyahu insists on violating the rules of engagement established since 7 October 2023, relying on military solutions to achieve his political goals and Israel's strategic objectives. However, this can only be realised if the link between Palestinian resistance in Gaza and its external support fronts is severed.
Topic:
Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Rules of Engagement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon
In addition to the direct losses – both human lives and damage to buildings and infrastructure – domestically, the earthquake may have implications for the coming presidential and parliamentary elections. In terms of foreign policy, it triggered a quasi-coup in Turkey’s regional and international relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, Elections, and Earthquake
If Erdogan and the AKP lose the election, the old class will return to power in a spirit of vengeance, armed with the legal and coercive tools of the state, which even Kilicdaroglu and his allies may be unable to restrain. If the People’s Alliance is victorious, it will have five full years to groom capable heirs who can preserve the gains made by the conservative Turkish majority in the past two decades and faithfully follow in the AKP’s footsteps.
Topic:
Elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Parliament