Special Commentary: Scenarios for a Post-COVID Middle East

Author
Christopher J. Bolan
Content Type
Commentary and Analysis
Institution
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract
It is worth approaching an assessment of the likely impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Middle East with a strong dose of humility. Nonetheless, it is clear that the spread of this disease has already had major impacts on the global economy, drastically reducing demand for Middle East oil exports, and leading to a historic collapse in oil prices. The immediate challenges of dealing with the monumental health and economic challenges posed by COVID-19 will add to the troubles of a region already burdened by multiple civil wars, poorly performing economies, growing civil discontent, and intensified sectarian divisions. This article offers a preliminary assessment of the potential impacts of COVID-19 on the security landscape of the Middle East and advances recommendations for how US military strategy and operations might adapt.
Topic
Security, Oil, Military Strategy, Economy, Exports, Pandemic, COVID-19
Political Geography
Middle East