China: 5-year forecast summary

Content Type
Country Data and Maps
Institution
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract
No abstract is available.
Topic
Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, Forecast summary
Political Geography
China

Outlook for 2020-24: Forecast summary

Forecast summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
  2019a 2020b 2021b 2022b 2023b 2024b
Real GDP growth 6.1 1.0 8.4 5.3 5.1 4.7
Industrial production growth 5.8 0.9 5.6 5.1 5.0 4.8
Gross agricultural production growth 3.1 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.8
Unemployment rate (av) 5.2 7.2 6.6 4.9 4.8 4.6
Consumer price inflation (av) 2.9 4.6 4.2 3.1 2.9 2.7
Consumer price inflation (end-period) 4.5 4.4 3.6 2.9 2.8 2.6
Benchmark lending rate (end-period) 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4
Government balance (% of GDP) -4.3 -5.5 -4.8 -4.7 -4.4 -4.4
Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) 2,399.0 2,087.2 2,224.7 2,392.8 2,583.5 2,734.1
Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) 1,973.7 1,745.7 1,829.3 1,928.0 2,035.3 2,141.4
Current-account balance (US$ bn) 141.3 123.5 113.1 106.9 99.8 95.9
Current-account balance (% of GDP) 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
External debt (end-period; US$ bn) 2,069.4 2,053.8 2,326.7 2,594.0 2,844.1 3,059.7
Exchange rate Rmb:US$ (av) 6.91 7.03 7.01 7.03 6.89 6.79
Exchange rate Rmb:US$ (end-period) 6.99 7.01 7.03 6.97 6.81 6.75
Exchange rate Rmb:¥100 (av) 6.34 6.49 6.50 6.75 6.73 6.89
Exchange rate Rmb:€ (end-period) 7.85 7.71 8.05 8.25 8.35 8.37
a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

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