China's economic reform plan will probably fail

Author
Derek M. Scissors
Content Type
Working Paper
Institution
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract
Reactions to the Chinese Communist Party's announcement of major economic reforms in November have ranged from unbridled optimism to skepticism about the party's ability to implement sweeping change. In fact, the reforms themselves are flawed in multiple ways-most are inauthentic, uncredible, or nonviable. However, the areas of land and finance offer more limited prospects for true reform. The primary means of judging reform progress should be progress in reducing excess capacity. The most likely outcome is that the party will claim success but the economy will slowly stagnate, harming China's partners.
Topic
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Reform
Political Geography
China, East Asia