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1. Recycling Regime, Environment, and Exclusion of Electronic Scrap Workers in Delhi

Author:
Gayatri Jai Singh Rathore
Publication Date:
11-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
In recent years, the Indian e-waste sector has undergone a process of formalisation through the implementation of E-waste Management Rules (2016), leading to the creation of what I call recycling regime. The upper and middle classes, along with NGOs and industry actors, are frontrunners in thinking about e-waste policies. They were prompted by a twofold motive: the desire for a “world-class”, clean, and pollution-free city; and seizing business opportunities by extracting value from e-waste. Rather than replacing the State, they co-opted the State so that it would legislate to safeguard the environment, and address toxicity and health problems associated with e-waste. Recycling regime relies on formalisation processes embedded in multiple technologies – technicity, capital-intensive facilities, certifications, authorisations, and licences – that work together to exclude the “informal” sector from the e-waste governance system. Recycling technologies act as “technologies of domination” that further contribute to sidelining the “informal” labour of scrap workers or e-kabadis, who as Muslims already find themselves on the margins of society. However, the recycling regime fails to safeguard the environment in the end as e-waste trickles down back to the informal sector via authorised actors.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Environment, Globalization, Health, Markets, Poverty, Governance, Law, Urbanization, Emerging States, and Norms
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

2. Empire Salon | William Smith | Oct 14 2020

Author:
William Smith
Publication Date:
12-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:
William Smith, a distinguished former student of Committee Board member Claes Ryn, has written an insightful book on the realistic and restrained foreign policy tradition of the United States. Smith highlights the great Harvard scholar, Irving Babbitt, with his clear understanding of the crooked timber of man -- especially when acting collectively -- which reduces moral inhibitions against violence. James Madison explained in Federalist 55, “Had every Athenian citizen been a Socrates; every Athenian assembly would still have been a mob.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Imperialism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

3. The Second Republic: Remaking Egypt Under Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi

Author:
Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi is building a new republic defined by a social ethos of “nothing for free,” a new form of state capitalism, and hyperpresidential powers set within a military guardianship that secures his regime but leaves it unable to resolve political, economic, and social challenges.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, State Capitalism, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Military
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

4. What Happens If the United States Leaves the WTO?

Author:
James Bacchus
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Aresolution before Congress calls for US withdrawal from the World Trade Organization (WTO). Both international law and US law permit withdrawal. The case for withdrawal, however, is misguided and misinformed. Much of what is said and widely believed about the effects of WTO membership on the United States is simply untrue. In fact, American membership in the WTO has been for decades and remains today enormously beneficial economically to US businesses, workers, and consumers. Withdrawal by the United States from the WTO would result in the loss of many of these economic benefits, including those derived from decades of accumulated trade commitments made by the 165 other member countries on thousands of different US goods and services traded within the WTO legal framework; those resulting from the commercial shield of WTO rules forbidding trade discrimination against US exports; and those emanating from the availability to the United States of an impartial, binding, and enforceable system of WTO trade dispute settlement. Moreover, withdrawal by the United States would cede US leadership in the WTO to other leading trading countries, including the second-largest trading country in the world, China. Trade is a win-win economically for all WTO members. WTO membership maximizes the overall economic gains from engaging in trade. The United States should remain in the WTO and help lead it toward needed reforms that will make it more beneficial to all in the modern global economy of the 21st century.
Topic:
Economics, Geopolitics, Trade, and WTO
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5. The New Development Bank’s Contribution to the Energy Transition Process in the BRICS Countries (2016-2023)

Author:
Maria Elena Rodriguez, Rafaela Mello Rodrigues de Sá, Octávio Henrique Alves Costa de Oliveira, and Renan Guimarães Canellas de Oliveira
Publication Date:
12-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:
Considering the growing relevance of the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) in the task of financing the global energy transition process, it is important to understand the efforts of these institutions to establish projects aimed at reducing carbon emissions in the most diverse sectors of the economy, and especially in the energy sector. This document looks specifically at the role that the New Development Bank (NDB) plays in this process, presenting an overview of its loan portfolio and targets in terms of contributions to the energy transition process. The NDB, also known as the BRICS Bank, stands out in its institutional strategies in the area of Clean Energy, one of its operational objectives, setting a target for the year 2026 of directing 40% of all its financing to projects aimed at climate change, including operations that contribute to the energy transition (NDB, 2022a, p. 28).
Topic:
Development, Banks, BRICS, Energy Transition, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Brazil, Ethiopia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates

6. Kuwait Country Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since the last Arab Barometer survey in Kuwait, conducted in 2022, major changes have taken place, significantly affecting political stability in the country. While political life in Kuwait was saturated with crises, and its indicators were clearly visible in the dissolution of the National Assembly (Parliament) repeatedly before completing its term, the shifts, changes, and political instability that dominated the public arena, between late 2022 and the current period of 2024, included even more severe events. Kuwait faced the unconstitutional dissolution of the National Assembly and the suspension of some articles in the constitution, now for the third time in Kuwait’s history. The first two such crises were in 1967 and 1986. To summarize the events that took place from June 2022 until the dissolution of the Parliament and the suspension of the constitution in May 2024, they are as follows: On August 3, 2022, the National Assembly was dissolved constitutionally, in response to the sit-in of a number of MPs inside the Parliament and their overnight stay there. The Crown Prince (the current Emir) gave a speech in which he emphasized adherence to the constitution, and also presented initiatives in electoral reform. He emphasized that the government would not vote for the candidate for the speaker of the National Assembly, and that the elections would be through the national ID card (effectively changing electoral circuits). The protesting MPs considered these reforms a victory. As a result, Ahmed al-Nawaf was appointed Prime Minister
Topic:
Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Health, Migration, Governance, Democracy, Economy, Discrimination, Institutions, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kuwait

7. Protecting the North American Arctic and Beyond

Author:
Mathieu Boulegue, Rebecca Pincus, and Madison Lipson
Publication Date:
11-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
The United States has quickly adapted to the new security environment in a changing Arctic, as the region must deal with geopolitical tension stemming from Russia, the impact of climate change, and NATO’s increased role and presence. Many unknowns remain, however. Turning current and future US strategic documents and concepts about the Arctic into reality does not have any easy solutions. This will require continued endeavor and patience. The US should ensure prevailing in the Arctic in terms of homeland security and forward defense. Forward defense in the Arctic will require forward-thinking, notably what constitutes Arctic-specific integrated deterrence through tailored and calibrated presence as part of the Joint Force. A large part of this endeavor falls on the leadership of USNORTHCOM. USNORTHCOM must be empowered to become the Department of Defense’s Arctic “capability advocate” under the Unified Command Plan (UCP) and the Total Force concept. USNORTHCOM must be emboldened to take the lead in associated challenges to defend the US homeland, secure the region, cooperate with allies, and bridge potential security gaps. This paper seeks to help USNORTHCOM leverage its influence in shaping the future of Arctic security for the US homeland. It offers plenty of innovative policy recommendations and action points aimed at streamlining the role of NORTHCOM to keep the Arctic safe and secure for the US and its allies. Future policy must address the need to enhance Arctic domain awareness and foster a new approach to Arctic-specific capabilities, technologies, and procurement tailored to the environment. Part of this endeavor is also connected to bridging potential gaps related to logistics, sustainment, maintenance, and transportation adapted to Arctic-specific requirements. This will ensure increased mobility and reach across the region. USNORTHCOM should ensure that regular Arctic drills and exercises under its supervision systematically include logistics and sustainment as essential parts of training. Policy must also clarify the role of the primary Arctic combatant command by identifying structural gaps and bridging them, especially in times of crisis or escalation. Better synchronization of efforts will help the US reach a common operating picture of the Arctic from a whole of government perspective.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and USNORTHCOM
Political Geography:
North America and Arctic

8. Les étudiants chinois en Europe et l’Etat-parti

Author:
Jérôme Doyon
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Chinese Students in Europe and the Party-State -- Why do some Chinese students who choose to study abroad get involved in pro-regime organisations? How does this reflect the efforts of the People’s Republic of China to foster relationships of dependence and allegiance with its overseas nationals? Fieldwork conducted within branches of the Chinese Students and Scholars Association in France and the United Kingdom sheds light on the drivers of this form of long-distance authoritarian commitment. An analysis of how the association operates in two different European countries reveals how it adapts to the local environment while functioning as an enclave, isolated from host societies. The organisation’s primary objective is to maintain the Chinese partystate’s hold over its nationals outside national borders rather than influence or develop ties with foreign societies. However, students do not passively allow themselves to be co-opted, and the many pressures they experience can hinder efforts to mobilise them in support of the regime.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Political Science, and Students
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and France

9. Ilham Tohti: Jailed for Fighting for Dialogue, Ethnic Harmony and Rule of Law

Author:
Jewher Tohti, Marie Holzman, Dilnur Reyhan, Teng Biao, Enver Can, and Magdalena Slezáková
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Vaclav Havel Library
Abstract:
Six of the 13 laureates of the Václav Havel Human Rights Prize to date are currently in prison, including Professor Ilham Tohti. He is a well-known Uyghur intellectual from China and the laureate of the Václav Havel Human Rights Prize for 2019. For over 20 years, he has been engaged in promoting dialogue and mutual understanding between Uyghurs and the Chinese authorities. As a result, he was sentenced to life imprisonment in a two-day show trial in 2014. His family has not heard from him since 2017, when he was denied contact with both them and his lawyers. On the occasion of the 10th anniversary of Ilham Tohti’s arrest, the Václav Havel Library organized a commemorative and advocacy event with the participation of his daughter Jewher, who lives in exile and has been actively involved in efforts to secure her father’s release. The somber 12th anniversary of his unjust imprisonment was marked at the Václav Havel Library by French sinologist, journalist, and writer Marie Holzman; senior researcher at the Oriental Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences and president of the European Uyghur Institute Dilnur Reyhan; Chinese lawyer and political activist Teng Biao—who, as a member of the Weiquan Lawyers (Rights Defence Network) in China, was a finalist for the Václav Havel Human Rights Prize in 2013—and Ilham Tohti’s tireless defender and president of the Ilham Tohti Initiative, Enver Can. The discussion was moderated by Magdalena Slezáková, foreign desk editor at Deník N.
Topic:
Human Rights, Repression, Advocacy, Uyghurs, Ilham Tohti, Dialogue, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
China and Asia

10. MIRAGE Model Documentation Version 2.0

Author:
Antoine Bouët, Lionel Fontagné, Christophe Gouel, Houssein Guimbard, Cristina Mitaritonna, Balthazar de Vaulchier, and Yu Zheng
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
MIRAGE is a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, initially devoted to trade policy analysis and more recently applied to long-term growth and environmental issues. It incorporates energy, carbon pricing, imperfect competition, and rigid investment allocation, in a sequential dynamic setup where installed capital is assumed to be immobile. The model provides trade analysis with detailed treatment of trade costs and Armington specifications, drawing upon a detailed measure of trade barriers through the MAcMap-HS6 database. Production features nested CES functions with capital-energy bundles under both perfect and imperfect competition frameworks, while final demand follows a LES-CES utility function. The sequential dynamic framework enables longterm simulations by combining total factor productivity calibration with macroeconomic projections from the MaGE model. The most recent version offers significant improvements in electricity sector modeling with renewable energy representation, base-load and peak-load dinstinctions, and detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions accounting with carbon market mechanisms. This documentation provides complete technical specifications, calibration procedures, and implementation guidelines for researchers and policymakers using MIRAGE for economic policy analysis.
Topic:
Environment, Trade Policy, Carbon Emissions, MIRAGE, and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. Taking Stock of Brexit

Author:
Iain Begg
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
J ohn Curtice, the UK’s foremost polling expert, wrote recently that ‘politicians do not talk much about Brexit these days’ (Curtice, 2025). In Germany, too, Brexit has largely disappeared from view, according to a prominent journalist consulted in the preparation of this blog. Another expert, Anand Menon, told AP News on the fifth anniversary of the UK leaving the EU that Brexit had ‘changed our economy’, adding that ‘our politics has been changed quite fundamentally’ (Lawless, 2025). His view is that, in electoral politics, conventional political cleavages have been supplanted by ‘a new division around Brexit’ (Lawless, 2025). In much of the EU, the 2025 anniversary elicited many articles characterised by a combination of acknowledgment that Brexit had failed to deliver, resignation about the UK’s fate and a sense of growing disinterest. The Austrian newspaper Kourier summed up these sentiments: “Von skurril bis tragisch: Eine Bilanz nach fünf Jahren Brexit [From bizarre to tragic, a stocktake after five years of Brexit]” (Bauer, 2025). However, Brexit is a process, rather than a discrete event, and some of its effects are both contested and take time, and are often seen through ideological rather than analytic lenses. A useful way to assess its consequences is to distinguish between three key dimensions: economic, social and governance related. The overall economic effects of Brexit have mainly been negative on both sides of the English Channel, albeit uneven, although some critics regard the magnitudes as having been exaggerated.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

12. Energy Data Spaces and Market Power: a new challenge for data sovereignty and its governance

Author:
Emanuele Giovannetti
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This paper examines how the digitalisation of energy markets, driven by smart meter data and Energy Data Spaces, is reshaping competition in retail electricity services. It analyses the implications for market power, consumer outcomes, and data sovereignty, highlighting the regulatory challenges posed by data-driven business models that operate across national boundaries.
Topic:
Markets, Governance, Regulation, Digitalization, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
During 2025 multiple contending Ukraine peace and cease-fire proposals were put forward by the Trump administration and America’s European partners. This article examines how the leading official proposals fell short. And it presents two, simpler proposals better aligned with battlefield realities. The article also explores the evolution of US, Ukrainian, Russian, and West European public opinion on the war. The Russia-Ukraine war has been a disaster – not only for the two principal combatants, who together have suffered 300,000 deaths, but for the entire world. This fact drives the imperative to end this conflict forthwith via negotiated compromise. Yet, as the article shows, none of the official proposals embrace this imperative. Instead, all exhibit efforts to win advantage for one side or the other. They are instances of diplo-fare – war by means of diplomacy. As such, their aim may be rejection not agreement, with an eye toward painting one’s opponent as intransigent and, in this way, build support for continuing the fight – or, in the case of President Trump’s preference, establish a pretext for US withdrawal. The simplest proposals may be the most practicable but these must reflect current battlefield realities rather than attempting to “correct” or “re-balance” them. This principle guides the independent cease-fire options suggested in this article. Otherwise, the article explores the possibility that Europe’s so-called Coalition of the Willing will respond to any serious fracture of Kyiv’s effort – a distinct possibility – by establishing a new nuclearized Europe-vs-Russia “central front” inside Ukraine. (With an Appendix summarizing the official November and December peace proposal texts.)
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, European Union, Negotiation, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

14. Variables of War

Author:
Lutz Unterseher
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
This essay argues that wars do not result from immutable human nature but from political motives, cultural dispositions, and calculations of military opportunity. Wars are, therefore, preventable. The essay presents a succinct causal model of war’s outbreak. ​ The formal causal argument: War’s outbreak is treated as the dependent variable; the independent variable is a mix of expansionist or preventive motives and a supportive war culture that glorifies offensive action and soldierly virtues (the “cult of the offensive”).​ Because such motives and cultures often do not lead to war, a further “sufficient condition” is posited: leaders must judge that a rapid victory is feasible, casualties acceptable, and domestic opposition manageable, typically by identifying structural vulnerabilities or “open flanks” in the opponent’s posture.​ This feasibility variable is an intermediate link between motives/culture and war and is filtered through perceptions often distorted by ideology, institutional dysfunction, or poor intelligence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, Deterrence, Armed Conflict, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. After Ukraine: Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East

Author:
Anna Borshchevskaya and Matt Tavares
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy. Russia’s position in the Middle East has faced major setbacks in recent years, including the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, the weakening of Iran and its proxies, and the toll from Moscow's unending war of choice in Ukraine. But reports of a Russian retreat from the region are premature. Alongside traditional defense and economic relationships with Algeria, Egypt, and Iraq, Moscow has cultivated ties with a host of other countries—U.S. adversaries and allies alike. With Iran, it has reportedly begun assembling Su-35 fighters as part of a $6.5 billion deal that would boost the regime’s air force. With the United Arab Emirates, an American ally, Russia’s non-oil trade grew to $11.5 billion as of 2024. And in Syria, Russia’s pre-revolution military bases remain in place, while an October meeting between Presidents Putin and Sharaa indicated a cooperative spirit. In this comprehensive Policy Note, experts Anna Borshchevskaya and Matt Tavares argue that Russia is poised for a resurgence in the Middle East, especially once the war in Ukraine ends—a point they also make clear in a hard-hitting op-ed published in the National Interest. Washington, they argue, must recognize the multiple threats this would present to U.S. interests in the region and develop a vigorous counterstrategy in response—one that includes empowering Ukrainian commercial interests, refining sanctions policy, and rebutting Russian propaganda in real-time.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Iran, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Middle East

16. Pakistan Steps In: Sudan and the Transformation of Regional Security

Author:
Areig Elhag
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A $1.5 billion Pakistani arms deal with Sudan signals a regional shift from diplomacy toward military escalation, which may prolong the war in Sudan. At a moment that should have seen renewed momentum toward a political settlement in Sudan, reports suggest that Pakistan, with Saudi mediation, is nearing completion of a $1.5 billion arms deal with the war-torn country. Far from being a routine arms transaction, the deal encompasses Karakoram-8 aircraft, more than 200 drones, and air defense systems. It also potentially includes JF-17 multirole fighter jets, produced jointly by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. This development points to a deeper regional shift away from sponsoring dialogue and toward a military resolution to the Sudanese conflict.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Regional Security, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Africa, and Sudan

17. Prospects for Syria-Israel Relations

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israel may believe the tense status quo is sustainable, but Washington is frustrated about the potential implications for Arab normalization, Turkish military friction, and near-term economic plans.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

18. Russia Leverages Venezuela to Expand Influence in Western Hemisphere

Author:
Sergey Sukhankin
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Moscow has condemned the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro while avoiding substantive retaliation, demonstrating both symbolic solidarity and an unwillingness to jeopardize relations with Washington. The Kremlin’s relationship with Venezuela enables Moscow to project power beyond Cuba in the Western Hemisphere, access Venezuela’s oil reserves, and cultivate an alliance aligned with an anti-Western agenda. Russian energy firms have gained oil stakes and repayment-in-kind options for investments in Venezuela, while joint financial ventures and Venezuela’s crypto experiments have served as testing grounds for sanctions-evasion mechanisms later adapted by Russia. Arms transfers, military-industrial collaboration, and media partnerships through RT, Sputnik, and TeleSur expanded Russia’s military footprint and narrative reach in the Western Hemisphere, though the financial return on Russian investments remains limited and challenged by U.S. pushback.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Oil, Bilateral Relations, and Power Projection
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

19. Russia–Azerbaijan Relations Remain in State of Limbo

Author:
Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s decision to skip Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Eurasian Economic Council meetings in December 2025 signaled renewed strain with Moscow, surprising observers who believed the October 2025 Dushanbe summit had stabilized relations after the December 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) crash. Tensions resurfaced after Azerbaijan learned Russia had closed the crash’s criminal investigation, which contradicted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Dushanbe assurances of missile-related responsibility, legal accountability, and compensation, instead attributing the crash to weather and pilot error. Conflicting Russian narratives and public criticism in Azerbaijan highlight a widening gap between Moscow’s political statements and legal actions, leaving normalization stalled and Russia–Azerbaijan relations suspended in distrust rather than reconciliation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Azerbaijan

20. Aftermath of Al-Fashir’s Fall to Rapid Support Forces

Author:
Andrew McGregor
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured al-Fashir in late October after an 18-month siege, consolidating RSF control over western Sudan and providing a potential capital for a new state. After entering al-Fashir, the RSF carried out mass looting, ethnic targeting, and killed 460 people at the al-Saudi maternity hospital in an attack that brought international outrage. Parallel RSF sieges in Kordofan indicate a strategy to divide Sudan. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) is struggling to maintain control, but still currently favors a military solution over diplomatic negotiations.
Topic:
Security, Armed Conflict, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and al-Fashir

21. Toward a Fairer EU-Tunisia Agricultural Partnership

Author:
Imen Louati
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Tunisian policymakers approach agriculture as the main economic tool to improve the country’s trade balance. Optimizing the trade balance as the primary objective has led to a dual strategy for the agricultural sector: to promote exports of products for which Tunisia has a comparative advantage – olive oil, dates, citrus fruits, and fish – while reducing its dependence on imports of staple foods – cereals, milk, and beef – in the interest of safeguarding national food security. This dual strategy has created tension in the agricultural policy. The free trade liberalization facilitated by the country’s membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is counterbalanced by protections for domestic producers, using measures such as tariff and non-tariff barriers, particularly for sensitive foodstuffs (agricultural products that a country considers highly important to its national interests and therefore seeks to protect from full trade liberalization).1 The simultaneous goals of prioritizing food security and protecting national farming interests, while also integrating with international markets, prevent trade policies from effectively balancing export promotion and import needs. The inherent contradiction of these objectives has not only compromised Tunisia’s agricultural policy but also directly contributed to supply chain disruptions and the temporary disappearance of essential food items from the national market. The sustained dependence on imported staples has, in turn, exacerbated the wider economic crisis, contributing directly to a significant rise in Tunisia’s external debt and straining the foreign currency reserves needed for servicing that debt. As Tunisia is currently engaged in negotiations to update its trade agreement with the EU, there is an urgent need to reevaluate Tunisia’s trade policy framework to prevent the negotiation process from locking the country into unsustainable and irreversible policy choices. In that spirit, this policy analysis traces the roots of Tunisia’s agricultural trade policies, examining key multilateral obligations and the asymmetric outcomes of its trade agreements with the EU. It outlines how the deep power imbalance between the EU and Tunisia is affecting Tunisia’s agricultural policies and documents the critiques and resistance to deeper trade integration among Tunisian civil society, unions, and farmers. Building on the evidence gathered through analysis and semistructured interviews with stakeholders from civil society organizations, farmer unions, and the EU representative in Tunisia, this report proposes a six-point proactive strategy to redefine the EU-Tunisia trade relationship.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Food Sovereignty, and Agricultural Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Tunisia

22. Financing Water Justice: International Aid and Development in the MENA Region

Author:
Dana Abi Ghanem
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The need for water justice in the MENA region represents a pressing policy challenge, as governments confront pressures from climate change that threaten water resources. The region is considered one of the most water-scarce in the world,1 but its geographic diversity means that different countries in MENA face a litany of challenges when securing water and food for their populations in just and sustainable ways. Several of them must address systemic issues in water governance, including unequal allocation, inadequate infrastructure, and uneven access among rural, urban, and displaced populations. Others face increasing droughts, driving vast areas that rely on agriculture for their income into social and economic precarity. Climate change, population growth, and transboundary water tensions further complicate national and regional efforts to ensure fair and sustainable water management. Since the end of the Second World War, international aid and development organizations have launched technical cooperation projects, often focused on rural water supply and irrigation. Led by the WB and United Nations agencies over the last three decades, bilateral aid agencies and the EU, these international financial institutions (IFIs) have played a significant role in water development – promoting approaches like integrated water resource management (IWRM), as well as lending support for transboundary water management and water governance. This support can be traced back through reams of documentation and convenings that showcase technical assistance and financing for various water development efforts, including dam building, irrigation projects, and wastewater treatment plants, with claims often linked to sustainability principles and sound water management. Viewing these actions from a water justice lens, we argue that water development processes and structures pertaining to transparent decision-making, participation, and democracy are as important as equitability and fairness in access to water.2 In this context, the role that IFIs can play in enabling or hindering water justice across various countries in the MENA region warrants scrutiny. This report examines how IFIs might facilitate a just water future for the region, exploring how their practices, investments, and partnerships influence fairness in access, equity, sustainability, and transparency in water governance.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, Water, and Climate Justice
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

23. Land Tenure in Lebanon: The Elephant in the Room of Agricultural Policy Debates

Author:
Christophe Maroun
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
“Land for those who work it.” This popular slogan, heralded by anti-colonialists and anti-imperialists worldwide, as well as by peasant movements such as La Via Campesina and the Landless Workers’ Movement in Brazil, encapsulates a global demand for agrarian reforms that put peasants at the heart of food systems. Yet while global conversations about food production and rural development have had to confront the uncomfortable issue of land tenure, in Lebanon land remains the elephant in the room of national agrarian policy debates. The question of land distribution and access in Lebanon touches on the very foundations of the country’s political economy, which is based on rent extraction, clientelism, and elite capture. A tangle of different land regimes has enabled political and economic elites to continuously convert land into speculative private assets, slowly eroding the social value of land while turning it into a commodity and a source of political power. The persistence of land-based power and elite resistance has historically blocked any meaningful structural reform. In parallel, by preferring donor-driven, technical interventions in agrarian and food policies that avoid the core issue of unequal land access, the Lebanese state functions as a guarantor of existing class structures. This article argues that reforming land access in Lebanon is the essential structural condition for cultivating a fair and sustainable agricultural system rooted in agroecology. It also proposes specific reformist policies and measures toward that goal. In the current political landscape, redistributive land reform – the transfer of tenure rights to new beneficiaries to provide more equitable access – remains distant. Nevertheless, pragmatic alternatives exist to improve land access to vulnerable communities and safeguard precarious agricultural lands. These include strengthening the use of communal amiri lands, protecting agricultural zones from speculation, and activating idle land.
Topic:
Environment, Transitional Justice, Land Tenure, and Agricultural Policy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

24. Venezuela: The Emperor Has No Clothes

Author:
Anil Anand
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:
America’s attack on Venezuela—alongside threats to annex Greenland, incorporate Canada as its 51st state, attack Colombia, or seize control of the Panama Canal—raises existential concerns about America’s commitment to a rule-based order and the legitimacy of the prevailing system for global governance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Order, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:
South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

25. How IPLCs Can Leverage BRICS for Inclusive Environmental Governance

Author:
Metolo Foyet
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs)face a pivotal chance to influence the emerging governance architecture of the BRICS+ alliance.Western-led frameworks (UNFCCC, CBD) recognize Indigenous rights but still struggle withimplementation. BRICS, representing over half the world’s population and major biodiversity,offers an alternative platform to advance plural knowledge systems and South–South solidarity. This brief proposes embedding Indigenous leadership within BRICS institutions, aligning newnorms with UNDRIP and ILO 169, and creating financial and knowledge instruments that sustaincommunity-led conservation. The goal is shared sovereignty in environmental decision-making,not token participation. The central question is whether BRICS can evolve from a geopolitical and financial bloc into a rights-based governance platform where IPLCs become co-architects ofglobal environmental policy, and whether multipolar governance can close implementation gapsby embedding Indigenous authority at the design stage.
Topic:
Environment, Governance, Indigenous, BRICS, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. Adapting Benin’s Battle with Violent Militant Groups

Author:
Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Persistent militant Islamist group attacks in the northern border regions of Benin have posed a growing security threat to the coastal West African region. Benin has made noteworthy institutional reforms to strengthen its defense and security forces. Yet, accelerated and refocused training is needed to translate this into more adaptive, operational capabilities to effectively counter the militant insurgency. Empowering local commanders, pairing enhanced force mobility with strike capability, and fusing interagency intelligence sharing are priority operational adaptations needed to sustain pressure on the insurgents. Effective counterinsurgency in northern Benin requires operationalizing a population-centric protection model and ethos embedded within the defense and security forces.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Islamism, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa and Benin

27. Revitalizing Integrated Tactical Units to Combat West Africa’s Irregular Militant Groups

Author:
Fatai Alli
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Legacy battalion-based formations designed for conventional, linear warfare are poorly matched for the dispersed, fast-moving insurgent threats confronting multiple West African countries. Enhanced operational mobility ensures reach, speed, and tactical unpredictability. Effectiveness in contemporary irregular warfare depends on integrated tactical units, intelligence-enabled maneuver, and sustained operational reach.
Topic:
Security, Counterinsurgency, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

28. Can Indonesia Fight Disinformation Without Oppression?

Author:
Ika Idris and Eka Nugraha Putrais
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:
Indonesia is attempting to regulate disinformation and foreign propaganda, risking the country’s democracy, which is already in decline.
Topic:
Democracy, Institutions, Propaganda, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

29. AI and the Future of Work in Cameroon: Preparing theWorkforce for Emerging Opportunities

Author:
Larissa Ntoubia and Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) presents a transformative opportunity for Cameroon’s labor market andoverall economic development. With the launch of the National Artificial Intelligence Strategy(SNIA) in July 2025 , Cameroon aims to become a continental hub for AI innovation by 2040. Thestrategy includes ambitious sets ambitious targets : training 60,000 AI professionals (of whom40% will be women), creating 12,000 direct jobs AI jobs, and increasing AI’s contribution tonational GDP to around 0.8 – 1.2% by 2040 through applications in key sectors such asagriculture, health, education and justice. While these targets signal a strong political commitment, achieving them will require overcoming significant structural constraints that are common across the continent. Experience from otherAfrican countries shows that the successful implementation of national AI strategies depends onreliable digital and energy infrastructure, clear regulatory frameworks for data governance and privacy, and sufficient institutional capacity to manage complex multi-sector programme. Thefeasibility of the SNIA will therefore rest not only on its design but also on the government’s abilityto address these foundational prerequisites.
Topic:
Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Labor Market, and Jobs
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

30. The Recognition of The Palestinian Statehood and itsImplication to International Diplomacy

Author:
Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The recognition of Palestinian statehood has re‑emerged as a pivotal issue in internationaldiplomacy, reshaping alliances and testing the limits of symbolic acts in global politics. While 147UN member states now recognize Palestine, this acknowledgment remains contested, particularlyby Israel and its closest allies. The debate underscores the tension between symbolism andsubstance: recognition strengthens legitimacy but does not automatically deliver stability or peace. For Africa, the Palestinian case resonates with unresolved sovereignty disputes such as WesternSahara and Somaliland. It highlights the importance of collective positions, effective mediation,and reforms in global governance systems. The African Union and subregional blocs havehistorically intervened in contested sovereignties, but their capacity remains constrained by limitedresources and weak enforcement mechanisms. This brief argues that recognition must be paired with tangible reforms, inclusive dialogue, andinstitutional strengthening. For African states, the lesson is clear: declarations alone areinsufficient. By leveraging recognition diplomatically, advocating for UN Security Council reform, and enhancing AU mediation frameworks, Africa can transform symbolic acts into meaningfulsteps toward peace, stability, and equitable global governance.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Geopolitics, Equity, and Recognition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

31. Building an Inclusive Future : Making Public and PrivateInvestment Work in CEMAC

Author:
Vessah Mbouombouo Salim Ahmed
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, CEMAC has invested heavily in public infrastructure, yet job-rich andinclusive growth remains limited. Private investment is shallow and concentrated in extractivesectors, while SMEs face chronic financing and regulatory constraints, leading to weakdiversification and high exposure to external shocks. This brief reframes the challenge as one ofpublic–private complementarity: how to redesign public spending, financial instruments, andgovernance so that each public franc attracts private capital, capabilities, and jobs. We propose asequenced reform package. Within 12 months, governments should publish a quarterly public-investment dashboard, launch a partial credit-guarantee window for SME lending, implement twotransparent PPP pilot projects, and introduce fast-track business licensing and permitting. Over12-36 months, project appraisal and ex-post evaluation should be institutionalized, PPPframeworks standardized, and commercial courts strengthened. Over 36-60 months, regionalinvestment rules should be harmonized, and financing diversified through regional and greeninstruments. Progress will be measured by on-time project delivery, SME credit growth, non-extractive private investment, and formal job creation.
Topic:
Inclusion, Public Investment, CEMAC (Central African Economic and Monetary Community), and Private Investment
Political Geography:
Africa

32. Harnessing Critical Minerals for Industrialization inSub‑Saharan Africa: Governance, Local Processing, andRegional Value Chains

Author:
Vessah Mbouombouo Salim Ahmed
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) holds nearly 30% of global reserves of critical minerals essential for theenergy transition, including cobalt, lithium, manganese, and copper. However, the region capturesless than 10% of the projected US$16 trillion in global mineral value over the next 25 years, asmost resources are exported in raw form with minimal domestic processing. This model limits jobcreation, technological advancement, and fiscal resilience. Rising global competition for securemineral supply chains presents an opportunity for SSA to shift from resource dependence toindustrial transformation. This brief argues that mineral wealth can translate into sustainabledevelopment through three interrelated pillars: transparent governance, strategic investment inlocal processing capacity, and integration of mineral value chains under the AfCFTA. A policyroadmap is proposed to strengthen contract transparency, build energy and skills infrastructure, promote regional processing hubs, and harmonize continental standards. Timely action canconvert geological endowments into industrial capability, economic sovereignty, and inclusivegrowth.
Topic:
Governance, Industrialization, Value Chains, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

33. Health Insurance Coverage for Refugees in Cameroon:Feasibility and Perspectives for Inclusive Access

Author:
Iskandar Patrick Abadoma Mounpou, Solange Dabou, and Odette Kibu
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Cameroon hosts more than 430,000 refugees and asylum seekers, most of whom live in remoteregions with limited access to health services. Refugees face persistent barriers to care, includingfinancial constraints, unstable legal status, mobility, and a health system heavily reliant on out-of-pocket payments. These vulnerabilities heighten the risk of delayed care and catastrophic healthexpenditures. This brief examines the feasibility of creating a refugee-inclusive health insurance mechanism.Despite structural constraints, international experience shows that refugee coverage is achievablewhen financing, legal frameworks, and partnerships are well-designed. Three pathways are 1/6 particularly relevant for Cameroon: progressive integration into national schemes with subsidies,dedicated humanitarian insurance, and public-private partnerships (PPPs) to expand serviceavailability in underserved areas. Short-term priorities include establishing a legal basis for enrolment and piloting subsidizedschemes. In the long term, investments in district-level facilities and digital systems wouldstrengthen continuity of care and support national UHC goals.
Topic:
Refugees, Health Insurance, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

34. The means of prediction and the production function of AI

Author:
Maximilian Kasy
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:
The real AI governance challenge: Who gets to decide what AI systems optimize for? Current debates miss that AI conflicts are between different groups of people, not humans vs. machines. Power flows from control of AI inputs: Those who control the means of prediction (data, computing power, expertise, and energy) determine AI objectives. Current governance approaches fail: Individual privacy rights and market mechanisms can’t address AI’s collective harms and benefits. Democratic control is the solution: Give stakeholders affected by AI decisions a voice in setting AI objectives.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, and Prediction
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35. The Impact of Occupational Status on Public Attitudes Toward Syrians Under Temporary Protection in Turkey

Author:
Michelle S. Dromgold-Sermen
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
For many non-immigrants in the United States, adjusting one’s legal status to lawful permanent residence through employment-sponsorship is a unique and attractive pathway to permanent residence and prospective citizenship in the United States. However, amidst an uncertain future for non-immigrant temporary work visas, tech layoffs, and stalled legislative immigration reform, many non-immigrant visa-holders are leaving the United States and taking their talent with them. This paper specifically examines visa and immigration processing delays for employment-sponsored adjustments of status to lawful permanent residence in the United States between 2007 and 2019. Based on descriptive analysis and discrete time event history models of data posted to an online immigration forum I call “Immigration Journey,” I document how immigrant visa-holders’ waiting in the U.S. immigration bureaucracy for employment-based immigrant visa processing reflects and reproduces racial, educational, and socioeconomic hierarchies and inequities. I find that immigrants from countries of origin with smaller populations, higher skill levels, and those able to pay for premium processing have higher likelihoods of a quick adjustment of status decision. Conversely, immigrants from countries of origin with larger populations or those with lower skill levels are left waiting longer for their adjustment of status decisions — even when they pay for premium processing of their petition for an immigrant visa. Based on this finding, I introduce the concept of a hierarchy of waiting to illustrate the ways in which legislation and inequitable administrative policies in U.S. immigrant visa processing become mechanisms of waiting. By doing so, this paper makes a theoretical contribution for understanding stratification within the employment-based immigrant visa pathway and highlights how this hierarchy of waiting exacerbates inequalities in immigration more broadly. The empirical findings and conceptualization of a hierarchy of waiting inform policy recommendations for: 1. legislative reform of country caps for lawful permanent residence; 2. legislative reform of preference category caps for lawful permanent residence; 3. increased funding for United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) processing; and 4. increased transparency and communication of USCIS processes. Such policy changes would make immigrant visa availability and USCIS processing more equitable for future lawful permanent residents and citizens who are eligible to adjust their status through employment-based and other immigrant visa preference categories. Streamlined changes to the U.S. immigration legislation and administrative processes are critical for the United States’ future innovation and growth.
Topic:
Employment, Bureaucracy, Immigration Policy, and Lawful Permanent Residence
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

36. Asymmetric Trade Dependence: How India Gains from Pakistan Through Re-Export Channels

Author:
Saifullah
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The asymmetric trade interdependence between India and Pakistan is examined using the Theory of Complex Interdependence. Despite the political hostility and official trade prohibition, India has continued to beeconomically blessed by Pakistan via third-party re-exporter methods, which are the UAE, Qatar, and Singapore. Despite top-down bilateral trade falling to US$1.2 billion by 2024, compared to US$3 billion in 2018, trade experts believe the value of Indian-origin goods entering Pakistan through a backdoor channel is over US$10 billion annually. Since 2015, the trade balance has consistently been in India's favor, with Pakistan relying heavily on imports from India and having minimal potential for exports. Although this trade agreement brings some benefits to Pakistani consumers, i.e., the chance to have more inexpensive or a variety of goods, it also reveals a significant vulnerability in the Pakistani government's trade policy, which is sluggish and unnecessarily restrictive. The policy implications of the findings concern trade reform, regional interaction, and fostering economic sovereignty in Pakistan.
Topic:
Political Economy, Bilateral Relations, Exports, Trade, Trade Deficit, and Interdependence
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and United Arab Emirates

37. Navigating the Dynamics of Policy Politics: An Analysis of Contemporary Public Policy Formulation Trends in Bangladesh

Author:
Md. Akmal Hossain
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Public policy formulation is an integral part of the government's role in providing essential services to citizens. Nevertheless, available studies on the policy process in Bangladesh have not thoroughly explored the detailed procedures and tendencies of the policy formulation process. The principal objective of this paper was to investigate the recent trends in the public policy-making process in Bangladesh. Based on secondary data sources, this paper argues that no analogous model can effectively analyze all policies implemented in Bangladesh over the last decade. However, the group interest and political process model is more feasible than other models in the policy formulation process. The implications of this study are to understand the nature of the policies and the role of actors who decide which policies will be developed and whose interests will be served. Moreover, this article will help policymakers and policy theorists make informed decisions, avoiding the weaknesses and drawbacks of previous policies.
Topic:
Government, Public Policy, Domestic Policy, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

38. Electoral Clientelism and Election violence in South and South-East Asia

Author:
Fariha Tabassum
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This study aims at examining the effect of electoral clientelism on election violence under a variety of conditions. Taking motivation from earlier research denoting increased risk of violence in elections in high clientelist context, this paper examines the effect of electoral clientelism in terms of vote buying on election violence. This study extends existing literature by arguing that the effect of electoral clientelism on election violence is dependent upon certain conditions and can vary across these conditions. The region of focus for this study is South and Southeast Asia since this is an understudied region with a high level of election violence as well as electoral clientelism. The results show significant evidence for the argument that the effect of electoral clientelism on election violence is dependent upon the conditions of competitiveness, media freedom and the general level of political violence prevailing in a country.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Violence, and Clientelism
Political Geography:
South Asia and Southeast Asia

39. Decentring Western IR Theories: Unveiling Efforts from the Arab World

Author:
Lourdes Habash
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Since Stanley Hoffmann's assertion that the field of international relations (IR) is predominantly Western, several non-Western trends have emerged to challenge this dominance. This study aims to examine Arab efforts that challenge Eurocentrism, their success in doing so within the field of IR, and to draw connections with other transformative efforts, mainly Global IR and Post-Western IR. The analysis is carried out within the broader context of the "Homegrown" trend in IR that seeks to diversify and decolonize the field. The argument within this article states that while the Arab efforts, represented by the Beirut School of Critical Security Studies, the School of International Relations of the Middle East (IRME), and the Islamic IR, are important steps. However, they have had limited impact and, in some cases, replicated the problems they seek to address. It also advocates for a more self-critical and contextual approach to decentralizing Western International Relations Theories (IRT), drawing lessons from the experiences and shortcomings of other non-Western initiatives. Moreover, a vision for enhancing the Arabic efforts to overcome Western hegemony, on the level of knowledge production as well as on the pedagogical and institutional levels, will be presented. An Arab exclusivity is not advocated in this article; instead, it emphasizes the need for a thorough examination of Arab initiatives, as part of the Global South, to improve their impact in achieving their goals.
Topic:
International Relations, Hegemony, Decolonization, and Eurocentrism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global South

40. Türkiye as a Cusp State: Conceptualization and Implementation

Author:
Meliha Benli Altunışık
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article revisits the concept of the “Cusp State” with a specific focus on Türkiye, aiming to deepen both its theoretical and empirical relevance. It begins by re-examining the definitional foundations of the concept, which refers to states situated at the intersection of regional and global dynamics, exhibiting hybrid characteristics and adaptive foreign policy behaviors. The article argues that the Cusp State framework offers a valuable lens for analyzing Türkiye’s foreign policy, particularly due to its blend of ideational and material factors and its geostrategic positioning. The analysis explores how Türkiye navigates its cuspness by employing region-building strategies, enhancing connectivity, and repositioning itself within global hierarchies. The article also investigates the limitations and contradictions inherent in these strategies, including domestic-international linkages, geopolitical constraints, and normative tensions. In doing so, it demonstrates that Türkiye's trajectory exemplifies the dynamic nature of cuspness—not merely as a structural condition but as a set of evolving practices shaped by agency and context. Ultimately, the article contributes to the literature by refining the Cusp State concept and offering empirical insights into Türkiye’s foreign policy conduct in a rapidly shifting international environment.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regionalism, and Connectivity
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

41. From Bridge to Hinge: Rapprochement-Estrangement Pendulum of Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:
Mesut Özcan
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The main motivation of this paper is to uncover the logic underlying the seemingly inconsistent and erratic foreign policy behavior of countries like Turkey, which are surrounded by different subsystems. The strategic cultures of the surrounding subsystems impose different modes of behavior on borderlands and create attract-repel elements for them. The responses to such elements appear as policies of rapprochement and estrangement, representing closer or cooling relations. Therefore, as part of the attract-repel dynamic, foreign policy behavior appears to oscillate between conflicting extremes. Consequently, the borderland position presents a combination of challenges and opportunities, depending on the comprehensive national power. It can be either reduced to a buffer zone caught between different and imposing entities, or transformed into a hinge state that can change regional or global balances. The underlying logic and ultimate goal of such policy swings, which may appear contradictory and erratic at times, is to become a hinge state in this process by capitalizing on advantages and opportunities, avoiding drawbacks and gaining more power at each step. In this process, Turkey appears as a borderland country that keeps moving between pivotal and linchpin positions, trying to confirm her linchpin status while aspiring to become a hinge state.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Borders, Rapprochement, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

42. Perception and Continuity: Active Non-Alignment in Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:
Burak Çakirca
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This study analyses Turkish foreign policy between 2010 and 2025, asking whether this period marks a strategic rupture or reflects continuity with the long-standing Westernisation trajectory. Employing the emerging framework of Active Non-Alignment (ANA), the study examines how Turkey’s redefinition of strategic interests and alignments reflects shifting global and regional dynamics. The findings suggest that while institutional and ontological ties to the West persist, Turkish foreign policy demonstrates a perceptual shift characterised by strategic autonomy, diversified partnerships, and issue-based pragmatism. By applying ANA to this evolving policy orientation, the study offers both a reinterpretation of Turkish foreign policy continuity and a theoretical contribution to the emerging literature on alternative alignment strategies in global politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Diversification, Strategic Autonomy, Pragmatism, Continuity, and Westernization
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

43. A pivot or a saga? How Turkish foreign policy is torn between domestic pressures and economic needs

Author:
Başak Alpan
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The EU must take proactive steps to address longstanding issues and cultivate a more trust-based and cooperative relationship with Turkey. Bilateral relations could be rejuvenated by addressing key issues such as democratic reforms, visa liberalisation, civil society engagement and the ongoing dispute over Cyprus. This CEPS Explainer explores the recent orientation of the Turkish foreign policy, focusing on its historical Western orientation and recent efforts to achieve ‘strategic autonomy’ by scrutinising the results of the fieldwork undertaken through the CATS Network project. Interviews conducted in Ankara, Istanbul and Brussels show that while Turkish policymakers aim to diversify the country’s foreign policy by forging security and economic partnerships with non-Western actors, such as the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China and Russia, its institutional and ideological foundation remains Western-oriented. Integrating Turkey into European security alignments, such as the SAFE framework, and modernising the Turkey-EU customs union would help to strengthen bilateral ties. Additionally, the EU should substantiate the people-to-people contact approach to rebuild trust and encourage further cooperation.
Topic:
European Union, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Civil Society, Partnerships, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Europe

44. How the EU can pursue strategic cooperation on secondary raw materials with the Western Balkans

Author:
Edoardo Righetti, Deniz Tekin, and Vasileios Rizos
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Europe’s green and digital transitions are increasing demand for critical raw materials (CRMs), just as geopolitical risks and trade tensions are reshaping global supply chains. In recent years, the EU has taken steps to secure and diversify supplies through building strategic partnerships with resource-rich countries, which also includes recovering CRMs from mine waste and tailings. The Western Balkans region stands out as a natural partner, given their already close integration with EU markets and transport networks, and their legacy of old industrial sites and mine tailings. Such a partnership could lead to several mutual benefits – for the EU, more resilient and circular CRM value chains which correspond with its strategic autonomy and sustainability objectives, and for the Western Balkans, by rehabilitating legacy sites and advancing green and circular policies tied to the Green Agenda and the enlargement framework. This CEPS Policy Brief dives into three priority areas for EU-Western Balkans cooperation on secondary raw materials that policymakers should pay more attention to.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Supply Chains, Green Transition, Digital Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Europe and Western Balkans

45. Economic implications for Europe of a potential reintegration of Iran into the world economy

Author:
Gabriel Felbermayr, Mahdi Ghodsi, Heider Kariem, Robert Stehrer, and Yoto V. Yotov
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
How would fundamental political change in Iran, leading to a democratic system with a free and rules-based economic order, affect Germany and the EU economically? In the event of change, sanctions could be scaled back, allowing Iran to rejoin the global economy. This study quantifies the economic effects of such a transformation. It neither advocates for nor legitimises the lifting or easing of sanctions under the current regime or without far-reaching and credible reforms that fully address the concerns underlying the sanctions currently in place. Using the newest available data and quantitative methods, the results indicate that lifting EU sanctions alone could raise Iran’s real GDP by more than 80% in the long run while generating moderate but economically meaningful gains for Germany and the EU of around 0.3-0.4% of GDP. These gains are driven by expanded trade, lower energy and input prices, and improved allocative efficiency. When sanctions removal is combined with plausible scenarios of productivity catch-up with Turkey or South Korea, Iran’s GDP would increase by 240-388% and the gains for Europe would increase further, underscoring the strong complementarity between trade integration and productivity growth. Moreover, Iran’s reintegration would reduce energy price volatility, improve the security of maritime trade routes, and lower migration pressures. Overall, the findings suggest that a negotiated transition and rules-based reintegration of Iran would generate substantial mutual economic benefits while contributing to regional and global stability.
Topic:
Markets, Political Economy, Foreign Direct Investment, Sanctions, European Union, Economy, Inflation, Energy, and Trade Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, and Germany

46. Structural dependencies and choke points in GVCs: An industry-level analysis

Author:
Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Global value chains (GVCs) are intricate international networks in which the production and distribution of goods and services across multiple economies and industries is coordinated. Their complexity introduces strategic dependencies when economies or industries rely heavily on a limited number of foreign suppliers. Such dependencies can also create additional vulnerabilities, particularly at choke points (i.e. key links or nodes in the chain) whose disruption – whether due to political instability and geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, pandemics or policy shocks and trade restrictions – can halt production. This study builds on previous research by examining two factors: (i) size dependencies arising when an importing economy-industry pair relies largely on the inputs of a partner economies, and (ii) choke dependencies, where imports from one economy pass through another, creating potential choke points. Choke dependency is particularly concerning, as disruptions in the choke economy can impact not only its direct exports but also the flow of goods from other suppliers. Using the multi-country input-output tables (MC IOTs), this study introduces two indicators to assess dependencies: (i) ‘size dependency’, based on the share of an economy-industry’s foreign output sourced from a specific partner, and (2) ‘choke dependency’, based on the pass-through frequency (ptf) indicator, which reveals how often inputs from third economies are routed through a particular partner. An economy-industry pair is considered dependent if it meets thresholds for size dependency, choke dependency or both. This comprehensive approach aims to offer a deeper understanding of systemic vulnerabilities in global trade networks.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Global Value Chains, Vulnerability, Dependency, and Choke Points
Political Geography:
Global Focus

47. Restraint and Diplomacy in Arctic Policy: Cooperation Amid U.S.-Russia-China Tensions

Author:
Pavel Devyatkin
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
In recent years, the Arctic has become the site of both great-power cooperation and competition. While the 2025 Alaska summit between Presidents Putin and Trump reflected a thaw in U.S.–Russia relations, U.S. interest in acquiring Greenland has cast doubt on continued U.S. cooperation with both Russia and China in the region. This brief details how a combination of restraint and proactive diplomacy in the Arctic — built upon shared interests and a recognition of competitive coexistence — will best serve the United States. The second Trump administration has called for American Arctic dominance, viewing the region as an energy source and as an opportunity to monopolize resources and to establish its Western Hemisphere force posture. Russia views the Arctic through a similar lens of resources and sovereignty, as it ramps up its military presence while intensifying efforts to extract natural resources. China’s influence in the region has steadily increased, as it collaborates with Russia, while advancing scientific research, sustainable development, and multilateral climate cooperation. The United States has come to see increasing Russia–China collaboration in the Arctic as a threat to U.S. national interests. But rather than responding to this deepening relationship through unilateralism, the U.S. should recognize that competitive coexistence and trilateral cooperation are more beneficial. This approach avoids zero-sum confrontation and minimizes accidental escalation while maintaining U.S. force projection, maximizing resource extraction, and promoting scientific collaboration. Toward this end, this brief recommends that the Trump administration: Establish trilateral maritime safety and search-and-rescue, SAR, operations, a system that exchanges real-time information, conducts joint training exercises, and invests in port and coast guard infrastructure. Such cooperation would lower shipping costs, improve safety, and encourage economic development — goals shared by the United States, Russia, and China. Institutionalize direct, reliable U.S.–Russia–China communication channels, including a dedicated Arctic hotline for incident reporting and a security digital platform for real-time vessel tracking. Such transparency minimizes the chances of miscalculation, particularly with nuclear assets in the region. Revitalize the Arctic Council to enable communication among the three major powers, the eight Arctic states, and Indigenous representatives. Initiate a trilateral arms control framework, using reductions in Arctic military exercises as a springboard for broader arms control and security arrangements.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Strategic Competition, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

48. Prospects and Problems for Reinvigorating Superpower Nuclear Cooperation

Author:
Ariel Petrovics
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
A three-way nuclear arms race between the United States, China, and Russia looms — an escalation that would erode global nonproliferation and usher in an era of unchecked nuclear proliferation. This brief offers a path to preventing this destabilizing outcome through pragmatic nuclear cooperation — an approach that has strong historical precedent and accords with the strategic interests of all three nuclear superpowers. Superpower cooperation historically underpinned the global nuclear nonproliferation regime, but increasing great power competition erodes this entire system of international security. China and Russia have each modernized and expanded their nuclear programs and adopted more aggressive nuclear postures. The United States, in turn, has approved a nearly $2 trillion nuclear modernization program. This burgeoning arms race heightens risks of inadvertent escalation, as each of the superpowers become increasingly reliant on nuclear brinkmanship to hold off the growing capabilities of their adversaries. The deteriorating nuclear security environment places pressure on other states to similarly seek their own nuclear arsenals while weakening the nonproliferation tool kit that previously prevented these states from breaking out. As more armed states join the fray, they in turn multiply the number of potential nuclear flashpoints around the world. Reinvesting in superpower cooperation on nuclear security is not an idealistic bid for goodwill. Rather, halting unchecked competition is a pragmatic strategy that serves the interests of the United States, Russia, and China. It preserves a global nuclear system that has safeguarded the superpowers’ dominance for decades. Weakening it, on the other hand, undermines the international marketplace that has preserved U.S. dominance in private industry and innovation. Russia and China, in turn, risk a multifront nuclear competition, as proximate U.S. allies choose uncontrolled independent arsenals over existing security umbrellas. The superpowers can still step back from the abyss by reviving nuclear cooperation. Toward that objective, this brief recommends that the Trump administration: Accept Russia’s offer to extend New START for a year, paired with verification pathways and transparency measures. Reinvigorate existing direct lines of communication (i.e., hotline systems) with both Russia and China. Initiate trilateral nuclear discussions with Russia and China toward the goal of capping arsenals at parity on specific warheads and delivery systems.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and United States of America

49. Conceptualizing Compartmentalization in International Relations: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:
Şaban Kardaş and Bayram Sinkaya
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
How do we conceptualize compartmentalization as a foreign policy behavior? This paper will argue that compartmentalization is a practical and cognitive approach to foreign policy decision-making and behavior at times of contradictory pressures arising from domestic or external realities, when actors need to make stark choices between different alternatives. Having delineated the boundaries of this concept, the article will engage in an extensive review of the literature employing the concept of compartmentalization in the study of Turkish foreign policy. It will trace how Turkish foreign policy conduct increasingly adopted this behavior in at least two distinct forms: issue-based and actor-based. The paper will argue that the widening scope of this practical-cognitive behavior is a result of a number of systemic and domestic-state level factors, which are closely related to the evolution of Türkiye’s domestic realities and international positioning against the background of a changing international system. Moreover, the paper will argue that at the individual-ideational level as well, compartmentalization has been part of a set of cognitive priors which affect the Turkish foreign policy makers’ formulation of alternative foreign policy strategies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Compartmentalization
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

50. Rights-Based Alternatives to Incarceration for Women Lessons from Colombia’s Public Utility Law and the International Guidelines on Human Rights and Drug Policy

Author:
Claudia Cardona, Julie Hannah, Isabel Pereira-Arana, and Rebecca Schleifer
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
Women’s incarceration in Colombia is deeply linked to the disproportionate application of drug laws and to the gendered inequalities women face in poor and care demanding contexts. A novel law introduced in 2023 addresses these issues and allows certain women heads of household living in conditions of marginality to exchange prison for public service in freedom. Law 2292 - the Public Utility Law, is an expression of the International Guidelines on Human Rights and Drug Policy, and of normative shifts in Colombia around criminal policy and drug control. This paper documents how Mujeres Libres, the Center for Law, Justice and Society (Dejusticia), and the International Centre for Human Rights and Drug Policy, based at the University of Essex, came together to use the Guidelines as a shared advocacy and technical framework to strengthen the implementation of Law 2292. Aimed at policymakers, judges, public defenders, and civil society in Latin America and beyond, this paper offers a practical account of our implementation efforts: how our partnership formed, how we engaged strategic actors and identified key pathways of change, what tools we produced, what results we are beginning to see, and what should happen next.
Topic:
Human Rights, Women, Inequality, Participation, Drug Policy, and Incarceration Alternatives
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

51. La inteligencia artificial en la Unión Europea

Author:
Cristina Puente, Celia Fernández Aller, Antoni Farriols Solá, Katherin Corredor, and Elisa Gutiérrez García
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La inteligencia artificial se ha consolidado como una tecnología de impacto sistémico, acelerada en los últimos años por la irrupción de la IA generativa y los grandes modelos de lenguaje, con efectos transversales en la economía, los servicios públicos y la vida social, y con profundas implicaciones éticas, laborales y geopolíticas. En este contexto de competencia estratégica entre Estados Unidos, China y la Unión Europea, el informe analiza la evolución tecnológica, los modelos fundacionales, las aplicaciones sectoriales y los riesgos asociados, subrayando la dependencia europea de infraestructuras y hardware externos, así como su posición de liderazgo normativo frente a un rezago en inversión, escalabilidad y talento. A partir de este diagnóstico, se examinan las iniciativas europeas emergentes, los desafíos de gobernanza global y las oportunidades para que la UE impulse un modelo de IA confiable, sostenible y centrado en las personas, que combine innovación, soberanía tecnológica, protección de derechos fundamentales y cooperación internacional en un entorno global cada vez más inestable.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Youth, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

52. Criterios para una fiscalidad saludable: Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar

Author:
Julio César Muñiz Pérez
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar La forma en que compramos y consumimos alimentos está cambiando, y la fiscalidad se ha convertido en una importante herramienta para promover la salud pública. Sin embargo, ¿Está funcionando adecuadamente la tributación actual sobre la alimentación? Recientemente hemos publicado un informe que analiza cómo debe diseñarse una «fiscalidad saludable» que sea verdaderamente efectiva, coherente con la normativa europea y justa para el consumidor. Lo que descubrirás en este informe: Ingredientes, no productos: Por qué habría que poner el acento en el “ingrediente objetivo” y no en penalizar categorías completas de alimentos. El IVA como mejor alternativa: Las ventajas de usar tramos de IVA diferenciados según el etiquetado, frente al empleo impuestos especiales. Evidencia vs. Recaudación: La necesidad de evaluar si estas medidas son eficaces para mejorar la salud o si solo generan un rechazo social. El papel de la industria: Cómo la colaboración y la innovación (I+D+i) pueden ser tanto o más eficaces que la simple aplicación de impuestos
Topic:
Political Science, Legislation, Public Policy, Public Health, Sugar, and Value-Added Tax (VAT)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

53. África ante la crisis de financiación para el desarrollo

Author:
Andrea Chamorro, Jaume Portell, Olga Namasembe, Luis García Blanch, and Romeo Gbaguidi
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La Fundación Alternativas les invita a debatir en Casa África en torno al Informe África 2026. En esta edición nos centramos en los retos y oportunidades que plantea un nuevo modelo de financiación al desarrollo a resultas de factores como la retirada de EEUU del sistema de la ayuda, con el desmantelamiento de la USAID y de las agencias de Naciones Unidas; la presencia creciente de China a través de su proyecto de la Franja y la Ruta; o nuevas prioridades en Europa como el aumento del gasto en defensa. Nuestro Informe ofrece un estudio en profundidad que reflexiona y elabora propuestas en torno a un nuevo modelo de financiación del desarrollo sostenible. Estamos en un momento crítico donde la UE y España deberían contribuir a la articulación de un nuevo modelo, más horizontal, participativo y eficaz. Abordaremos cuestiones como el estado actual de la deuda y el desarrollo en África: el nexo entre seguridad y desarrollo; las tensiones entre las agendas externas y los intereses africanos en el Sahel y África Occidental; el nuevo escenario de la cooperación española y europea; el papel del sector privado, o las perspectivas para el desarrollo africano tras la IV Cumbre de Financiación de Sevilla.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, and Financing
Political Geography:
Africa

54. Irán entre protestas y geopolítica

Author:
Xavier Villar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Análisis de las protestas en Irán surgidas en un contexto de fuerte inflación y depreciación del rial —que perdió cerca de la mitad de su valor frente al dólar en 2025— y que, tras iniciarse como una movilización de carácter económico encabezada por comerciantes y pequeños empresarios, derivaron rápidamente en expresiones de descontento político más amplio. Aunque las manifestaciones se han extendido a numerosas ciudades y han adquirido una notable visibilidad social, su escala y composición difieren de ciclos previos, como los de 2009 o 2019, y hasta ahora no se han producido deserciones significativas en las fuerzas de seguridad que permitan hablar de un cambio de régimen inminente. El artículo subraya además las dificultades para verificar cifras de víctimas debido al bloqueo informativo, matiza la idea de un rechazo político unánime al régimen y sitúa las protestas en un marco político-estratégico más amplio, marcado por la posición geográfica de Irán, sus recursos energéticos y la competencia internacional entre Estados Unidos y China.
Topic:
Regime Change, Sanctions, Economy, Protests, Inflation, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

55. Universidad dual: Formación innovativa para el futuro profesional

Author:
Vicent Climent-Ferrando
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
El dinámico mercado laboral actual exige una formación universitaria más ágil y relevante. A menudo, la evolución curricular de las universidades no sigue el ritmo de la innovación empresarial, generando una brecha entre la academia y las necesidades del sector productivo. La Universidad Dual surge como una solución clave, integrando la formación académica con la experiencia práctica en empresas. Este modelo no solo impulsa la actualización de los currículos, sino que también eleva la empleabilidad de los estudiantes al ofrecerles un entorno de aprendizaje real y aplicado. Sin embargo, su implementación presenta desafíos importantes: asegurar la calidad educativa, invertir en la capacitación del personal docente en las empresas y garantizar el equilibrio entre el estudio y el trabajo para los estudiantes. Desde Fundación Alternativas, abordamos estos retos. Presentamos un Policy Paper y una jornada de debate dedicados a analizar en profundidad el modelo de formación dual universitaria. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar su estado actual y proponer recomendaciones de política pública que faciliten su adopción progresiva, minimizando los riesgos asociados a esta transformación.
Topic:
Education, Markets, Labor Issues, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

56. Hacia la Ley de Chips 2.0

Author:
Emilio García García
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
En este documento elaborado por Emilio García García se aborda la revisión de la Ley de Chips de la UE, que tuvo su origen en la crisis de la cadena de suministros posterior a los confinamientos para contener la pandemia de la COVID-19. La Comisión Europea ha acelerado su proceso de revisión junto con la globalidad de la estrategia de semiconductores comunitaria. En un escenario de inestabilidad geopolítica, el ejecutivo de la UE ha señalado la industria de semiconductores como una de las claves de la soberanía tecnológica del Viejo Continente, motivando así la urgencia del proceso. La ya denominada Ley de Chips 2.0 debe tener en cuenta los éxitos y fracasos de la estrategia actual, así como los cambios geopolíticos y del entorno tecnológico y de mercado. Se presenta en el documento un resumen de estas circunstancias y recomendaciones para la próxima revisión de la norma. Si bien destacamos la importancia de la nueva Ley, la nueva política industrial y comercial europea para semiconductores debe trascender el marco de una directiva o reglamento, y la implementación de las recomendaciones de la sección final requiere cambios en otros instrumentos de la UE y nuevas herramientas.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Law, European Union, Geopolitics, Political Science, Public Policy, and CHIPS
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

57. Ciencia, Industria y Competitividad

Author:
Gonzalo León, Francisco Marín, Carlos Marti Sempere, Raquel Jorge, and María Peñate
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La Fundación Alternativas analiza la evolución del sistema de I+D en España en el contexto internacional y geopolítico, destacando los grandes cambios recientes en ciencia, tecnología e innovación. El informe subraya que España dispone de capacidades competitivas en áreas clave como biotecnología, comunicaciones, software o IA, y puede contribuir al fortalecimiento tecnológico de la UE. Ante el ascenso de China, la inestabilidad global y la creciente importancia de la seguridad y la soberanía tecnológica, el texto defiende la necesidad de reformar el sistema español de I+D, mejorar su gestión y alinearlo con una política industrial europea más ambiciosa. El objetivo final es reforzar la competitividad, la autonomía tecnológica y el papel estratégico de España en Europa.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Youth, Digital Culture, Industry, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Spain

58. Political Violence in America: Public Perceptions, Polarization, and Accountability

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
Two-thirds of Americans (67%) believe political leaders’ failure to condemn violent rhetoric contributes a lot to violent actions in society. Majorities of Americans also believe that false or misleading information generated by AI (64%) and public displays of hate symbols (61%) contribute a lot to violent actions in society, while smaller majorities believe easy access to guns and harsh and violent political language are also drivers (both 53%). While 51% of Republicans believe public displays of hate symbols contribute a lot to violence, 76% of Democrats do. Fewer than half of Republicans (46%) believe that harsh and violent political language contributes a lot to violence in society; white evangelical Protestants are the only group of religious Americans in which a minority (45%) share that view. Very few Americans support hostile and violent actions by their political allies to advance important political goals. Very few Americans justify imprisoning a political opponent without a trial if that person poses a clear danger to the country (12%); damaging or destroying property as a form of protest (7%); pushing, shoving, or punching a political opponent (6%); posting the home address or private phone number of a political opponent online so their family will be harassed (5%); or killing a political opponent if that person poses a clear danger to the country (5%). While very strong majorities of Americans over the age of 50 completely disagree that violent and harsh actions may justify political outcomes, such sentiments are less widely shared among younger Americans, especially those who are under 30. More than three in four Americans disagree that violence may be needed to save the country; views are similar across partisan groups, though they have shifted some throughout the year. Most Americans (77%) disagree that “because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country,” compared with 20% of those who agree. Agreement about the potential need for political violence has decreased significantly among Republicans since President Donald Trump’s reelection in November 2024; agreement among Democrats has remained low over time but increased slightly in the past year. Since early 2021, support for political violence has varied across religious groups. Support among white Christians has declined since the 2024 election, though white evangelical Protestants continue to show higher support than white Christians overall. Support for political violence remains highest among Christian nationalism Adherents and lowest among Rejecters. Americans’ views on who is most responsible for political violence are deeply polarized, split largely along partisan and religious lines. Democrats overwhelmingly attribute most responsibility for political violence to right-wing groups (73%), while Republicans attribute most responsibility to left-wing groups (72%). While more Christians of color and non-Christians attribute most responsibility to right-wing groups for most political violence today, white Christian groups attribute most responsibility to left-wing groups. Most Christian nationalism Adherents (73%) and Sympathizers (64%) attribute responsibility to left-wing groups, while most Rejecters (72%) attribute responsibility to right-wing groups. Christian nationalism Skeptics are divided. Americans’ views are strongly divided by party and religion on whether National Guard deployments in American cities cause more violence than they prevent. A slim majority of Americans (52%) agree that deploying the National Guard to patrol American cities may cause more violence than it prevents. Democrats (80%) and independents (60%) are far more likely than Republicans (23%) to agree. Most Christians of color and non-Christians agree that these deployments cause more violence, while white Christian groups are far less likely to do so. Agreement is particularly lower among white evangelical Protestants (29%). Christian nationalism Rejecters (80%) are the most likely to agree, followed by Skeptics (54%), Sympathizers (37%), and Adherents (26%). Opposition to Trump’s Jan. 6 pardons is widespread, with notable exceptions among Republicans, white Christian groups, and Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers. Most Americans (68%) oppose “President Trump’s pardoning of over 1,500 people convicted for their role in the attacks on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021,” compared with 29% who favor it. Republicans (63%) are far more likely to favor these pardons than independents (22%) and Democrats (4%). White Christian groups, particularly white evangelical Protestants (58%), are more likely than non-Christians (24%), Christians of color (19%), and unaffiliated Americans (18%) to favor Trump’s Jan. 6 pardons, as are Christian nationalism Adherents (61%) and Sympathizers (49%), compared with Skeptics (25%) and Rejecters (8%). Opposition to stripping citizenship and deporting U.S. citizens deemed a threat is widespread, with notable exceptions among Republicans, white evangelical Protestants, and Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers. Four in ten Americans (41%) favor “stripping U.S. citizens of their citizenship and deporting them if they are determined to be a threat to the country.” Republicans (60%) are roughly twice as likely as independents (38%) and Democrats (27%) to agree. White evangelical Protestants (56%) are the only religious group with majority support for stripping U.S. citizens of their citizenship and deporting them, compared with fewer Hispanic Protestants (49%), white Catholics (48%), and white mainline Protestants (46%). Support among other religious groups is notably lower. Christian nationalism Adherents (67%) and Sympathizers (57%) are notably more likely than Skeptics (40%) and Rejecters (23%) to favor stripping U.S. citizens of their citizenship.
Topic:
Political Violence, Accountability, Misinformation, and Polarization
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

59. Mapping Christian Nationalism Across the 50 States: Insights from PRRI’s 2025 American Values Atlas

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
Around three in ten Americans qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents or Sympathizers. One-third of Americans qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents (11%) or Sympathizers (21%), compared with two-thirds who qualify as Skeptics (37%) or Rejecters (27%). These percentages have remained stable since PRRI first asked these questions in late 2022, with a slight decline among Americans who qualify as Christian nationalism Rejecters, who peaked at 32% in June 2023 and declined to 26% by the end of 2025. White evangelical Protestants and Hispanic Protestants are most likely to hold Christian nationalist beliefs; Americans who frequently attend religious services, especially those who are white, are more likely to be Christian nationalists. White Christians (46%) are more likely than Christians of color (39%), non-Christians (13%), and religiously unaffiliated Americans (10%) to qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers. White evangelical Protestants (67%) and Hispanic Protestants (54%) are the only major religious groups among whom a majority hold Christian nationalist beliefs. The majority of those who attend religious services weekly or more qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents or Sympathizers (54%), compared with 39% of those who attend at least a few times a year and 20% of those who seldom or never attend services. This correlation holds among those who pray outside of religious services and those who read religious texts. White Americans who attend religious services, pray, or read the Bible or other religious texts frequently are more likely than their Black and Hispanic counterparts to qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers. Christian nationalism support is also strongly linked to party, media habits, age, education, and race. A majority of Republicans qualify as either Christian nationalism Adherents (21%) or Sympathizers (35%), compared with one-quarter of independents (7% Adherents and 18% Sympathizers) and less than one in five Democrats (5% Adherents and 12% Sympathizers). Two-thirds of Americans who most trust far-right news sources qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents (34%) or Sympathizers (31%), as do a majority of those who most trust Fox News (18% Adherents and 37% Sympathizers). Support for Christian nationalism is positively associated with lower education levels and older age; AAPI Americans are far less likely to be Christian nationalists than other Americans. Christian nationalist views predominate in the South and Midwest; support for Christian nationalism is strongly correlated in all 50 states with favorable views of President Donald Trump and the proportion of Republican representation in state legislatures. The states with the highest levels of support for Christian nationalism — which includes about half of their residents — are Arkansas (54%), Mississippi (52%), West Virginia (51%), Oklahoma (49%), and Wyoming (46%). Three states emerge with more than half of their white, non-Hispanic residents supporting Christian nationalism: Arkansas (59%), Mississippi (54%), and West Virginia (53%). The higher state residents scored on the Christian nationalism scale, the more likely they are to hold favorable views of Trump and the larger the proportion of Republican elected officials in their state legislatures. Christian nationalists are more likely than other Americans to support political violence and score high on PRRI’s Right-Wing Authoritarianism Scale. Three in ten Christian nationalism Adherents (30%) and one-quarter of Sympathizers (23%) agree that “because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence to save the country,” compared with only 14% of Skeptics and 11% of Rejecters. Support for political violence among Christian nationalism Adherents was higher under President Joe Biden and declined after Trump’s reelection. Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers score high on PRRI’s Right-Wing Authoritarianism Scale; scores for Skeptics are mixed, while Rejecters score low. Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers overwhelmingly view Trump as a strong leader, while Skeptics and Rejecters overwhelmingly view him as a dangerous dictator. Christian nationalists also hold more extreme views about immigrants and are more likely to say mandatory vaccines for children should be illegal. Majorities of Christian nationalism Adherents (67%) and Sympathizers (53%) believe that “immigrants are invading our country and replacing our cultural and ethnic background.” Majorities of Christian nationalism Adherents (61%) and Sympathizers (54%) agree with “the U.S. government deporting undocumented immigrants to foreign prisons without due process.” While at least half of Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers support birthright citizenship, majorities agree with “stripping U.S. citizens of their citizenship and deporting them if they are determined to be a threat to the country” (66% and 56%). Over four in ten Christian nationalism Adherents (44%) and one-third of Sympathizers (34%) say that mandatory vaccines for children should be illegal in all or most cases, compared with one-quarter of Skeptics and one in ten Rejecters.
Topic:
Politics, Religion, Ideology, and Christian Nationalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

60. Mapping Support for LGBTQ Rights Across the 50 States: Insights from PRRI’s 2025 American Values Atlas

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
LGBTQ Americans trend younger, Democratic, liberal, and more religiously unaffiliated than other Americans. One in ten Americans identify as LGBTQ. Two in ten Americans ages 18-29 (20%) identify as LGBTQ, compared with smaller shares among those ages 30-49 (11%), ages 50-64 (5%), and ages 65 and older (4%). LGBTQ Americans are more likely to identify as Democrats (40%), compared with 28% of all Americans, and are nearly twice as likely to identify as politically liberal (51% vs. 26%, respectively). The majority of LGBTQ Americans identify as religiously unaffiliated (51%), compared with 27% of all Americans. Views on LGBTQ rights differ strongly by state. Massachusetts (85%), Maryland (82%), and Alaska (81%), along with the District of Columbia (82%), hold the highest support for nondiscrimination protections for gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people, while Mississippi (60%), Wyoming (57%), and Arkansas (53%) show the lowest support. Massachusetts (72%), Hawaii (71%), Vermont (71%), and Connecticut (70%), along with the District of Columbia (70%), show the strongest opposition to religiously based service refusals, while West Virginia (44%) shows the lowest opposition. The only states without majority support for same-sex marriage are Mississippi (47%) and Arkansas (50%). Massachusetts (85%), Rhode Island (85%), and Vermont (81%) show the highest support. Except for Christian nationalism Adherents, strong majorities of Americans — including most people of faith — support nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ individuals. Most Americans support nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ people (72%), with Democrats (90%) being the most supportive, followed by independents (76%) and Republicans (56%). Majorities of most major religious groups support non-discrimination protections, though support is highest among non-Christians and the religiously unaffiliated. Christian nationalism Rejecters (91%) are the most likely to support nondiscrimination protections, followed by 77% of Skeptics, 61% of Sympathizers, and 42% of Adherents. Over the past decade, Americans ages 18-29 have shown a gradual decrease in support for LGBTQ nondiscrimination laws, from 80% in 2015 to 70% in 2025, largely driven by young Republicans, while seniors 65 and over have increased their support from 61% to 74% over the same period. Except for Republicans, Christian nationalism Adherents, and Sympathizers, most Americans continue to oppose religiously based service refusals for LGBTQ people. Most Americans oppose allowing small businesses to refuse service to LGBTQ people on religious grounds (59%), with Democrats (82%) more likely to oppose, compared with independents (60%) and Republicans (35%). Opposition among white Christians grew from 49% in 2015 to 55% in 2020, but has declined since to 46%. Opposition among Christians of color, non-Christians, and religiously unaffiliated Americans remains high. Christian nationalism Rejecters (83%) are the most likely to oppose religiously based refusals for LGBTQ people, followed by 62% of Skeptics, 44% of Sympathizers, and 32% of Adherents. Support for same-sex marriage remains high for most Americans, but partisanship, religious affiliation, and Christian nationalist views are linked to differing opinions. Support for same-sex marriage remains higher today (65%) than in 2015 (53%). Today, Republicans (49%) are notably less likely than Democrats (83%) and independents (69%) to support same-sex marriage. Majorities of most religious groups support same-sex marriage, except for Latter-day Saints (47%), Hispanic Protestants (45%), white evangelical Protestants (37%), Muslims (37%), and Jehovah’s Witnesses (19%). Nearly all Christian nationalism Rejecters (93%) and three-fourths of Skeptics (73%) support same-sex marriage, compared with 46% of Sympathizers and 22% of Adherents. Except for young Americans under 30, support for same-sex marriage has steadily grown across older age groups, gender, race, and education levels. While most Americans agree that transgender people deserve the same rights and protections as other Americans, just 40% oppose laws that require transgender people to use bathroom of their sex assigned at birth. Seven in ten Americans (71%) agree that “transgender people deserve the same rights and protections as other Americans,” including most Democrats (88%), independents (77%), and Republicans (57%). Except for Christian nationalism Adherents (40%), solid majorities across all religious groups, Christian nationalism groups, age, gender, race, and education levels agree that transgender people deserve the same rights as other Americans. The majority of Americans (56%) favor laws that require transgender individuals to use bathrooms that correspond to their sex at birth, with most Republicans (81%) in favor, compared with 55% of independents and 32% of Democrats. Americans who agree transgender people deserve the same rights and protections as other Americans are less likely to favor laws that require transgender individuals to use bathrooms that correspond to their sex assigned at birth than those who disagree that transgender people deserve the same rights (49% vs. 77%).
Topic:
Human Rights, Religion, Discrimination, LGBT+, Transgender, and Christian Nationalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

61. The Case for Legal Reform in the IDF

Author:
Gabi Siboni
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The war has exposed a troubling pattern of legal encroachment on the battlefield, with the legal system shifting from a supporting role to a dominant force shaping security outcomes—at times at the expense of victory and at increased risk to soldiers. This paper proposes reforms to restore the balance between legal advice and security needs, remove self-imposed constraints, and return the IDF to a single clear objective: decisive victory
Topic:
Security, Armed Forces, Reform, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

62. Turkey–Israel Relations: Strategic Context and Policy Considerations

Author:
Gabi Siboni and Erez Winner
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Between Ankara’s regional ambition, ideological and religious zeal, and economic vulnerability—implications for Israel’s security and diplomacy
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

63. As Erdogan Tightens His Grip on Syria, What Can Israel Do?

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Following the agreement between the al-Sharaa regime and the Kurds, the consolidation of Turkish influence in Syria presents strategic dilemmas for Israel
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Ahmad al-Sharaa
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

64. What Lies Beneath: Hybrid Threats to Taiwan’s Submarine Cables and the Contest in the Information Domain

Author:
Aurelio Insisa
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Between 2023 and 2025, multiple disruptions affected Taiwan’s submarine cables, a critical yet vulnerable infrastructure essential to the island’s connectivity and security. Against the backdrop of China’s diplomatic, economic and military pressure targeting Taiwan, these disruptions are generally defined as “grey zone operations”. Yet, reframing them as hybrid threats allows for a better understanding of how specific threats to the infrastructure domain can spill over in the information domain. Disruptions to submarine cables may be exploited by threat actors to erode trust in domestic institutions and destabilise society. Uncertainty in the information domain emerging from these disruption presents opportunities for Taiwanese authorities to mobilise public support, international partners and resources to enhance infrastructure resilience. A strategic communications approach drawing on the experience of the EU can strengthen response through enhanced coordination among institutions, coherent messaging, constructive public engagement and improved awareness of information-domain contestation. An effective adoption of this approach may mitigate risks from threat actors while reinforcing the capacity of Taiwanese authorities to safeguard critical infrastructure and maintain societal trust.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Disinformation, Hybrid Threats, and Submarine Cable
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

65. Europe’s Migration Governance Dilemma

Author:
Elena Potitò
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The EU’s migration governance model increasingly relies on externalisation, which is widely criticised for lacking accountability and failing to respect fundamental rights. This model is particularly pronounced in the Western Balkans, where infringements of procedural rights and violent practices against migrants are frequently reported. If the EU fails to reconcile its own values with its migration policies, it will further undermine its international credibility, at the expense of individuals attempting to reach EU borders.
Topic:
Migration, Governance, European Union, Refugees, Borders, and Externalization
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

66. Netanyahu’s Long Game to Reorder the Middle East

Author:
Akram Zaoui
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As the inspirator of the ongoing war in the Middle East, Netanyahu’s actions must be read through decades of political action. US participation in the war marks the apex of years of manoeuvring in Washington to reshape the region. Goals sought include obliteration of regional strategic threats and normalisation with Arab countries from a position of undisputable strength.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Normalization, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

67. Deconstructing Kosovo's relations with Turkiye - Between Reality and Expectations

Author:
Asllan Zenunaj
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the evolution of relations between Kosovo and Türkiye from Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008 to 2025, with a specific focus on the security dimension of this partnership. Its central aim is to analyse how Türkiye’s foreign policy tools and priorities toward Kosovo have evolved under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and how these changes are perceived domestically in Kosovo, particularly in light of Kosovo’s stated Euro-Atlantic aspirations. The analysis reveal change and continuities in Türkiye’s engagement, complementing an early emphasis on historical, religious and cultural narratives associated with “Neo-Ottomanism” to a more pragmatic “Erdoganism”, an interest-driven approach, particularly evident after 2022. The initial engagement under the AKP was heavily heavily influenced by Ahmet Davutoğlu's “Strategic Depth” doctrine, which emphasized soft power, shared heritage, and a “zero problems with neighbors” policy. This included religious diplomacy through institutions like the Diyanet (Presidency of Religious Affairs) and TIKA (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency), which promoted a shared Sunni-Hanafi Islamic identity and renovated Ottoman-era heritage sites. The paper argues this has complimented by a more assertive “Erdoganism”, which combines strategic depth with hard-power tools, particularly economic and defense cooperation, where Türkiye has become a crucial partner in modernizing the Kosovo Security Force through the provision of advanced military hardware and joint industrial projects. Additionally, Türkiye’s command of KFOR in 2023 and 2025 underscores its central position in regional security underlying the strong coordination between the bilateral agreements within the spirit of NATO’s formal structure and coordination with key allies like the United States. The paper also finds out that the Strategic partnership between Türkiye and Kosovo can be seen as exceeding its line between cooperation and interference in Kosovo’s domestic affairs, nevertheless these perceptions often derive from the misconceptions regarding the excessive use of Ankara’s soft-power tools. Henceforth, although Türkiye has sought to shape the country’s cultural narratives and public discourse, leveraging historical memory and kinship ties to project influence within local institutions and communities, there is a notable divergence between public perception and strategic reality. While an overwhelming 91% of Kosovars view Türkiye favorably, strategic allegiance remains firmly with the United States, indicating that popular support is emotive and pragmatic rather than an ideological endorsement of Türkiye’s political model. The paper recommends that Kosovo navigate this complex dynamic by supporting the transition from personalized “brotherhood diplomacy” toward a more structured, transparent, and institutionalized state‑to‑state partnership, one that avoids political interference on either side, remains embedded within NATO‑compatible frameworks, and is clearly communicated as complementary to Kosovo’s Euro‑Atlantic integration. Such an approach would allow Kosovo to maximize the benefits of its partnership with Türkiye while safeguarding its secular, independent, and democratic principles.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Kosovo, and Balkans

68. With imports of around €900 million in 2025, is Kosovo moving toward a potential dependency on China’s supply chain?

Author:
Ramadan Ilazi
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
KCSS publishes new paper on Kosovo’s rising imports from China and supply‑chain risks Prishtina, February 20, 2026: The Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS) has published a new discussion paper in its Secure Futures Series examining whether Kosovo’s rapidly growing imports from China could be placing the country on a trajectory toward supply‑chain dependency, and what this might mean for Kosovo’s governance, resilience, and Euro‑Atlantic integration and alignment. Authored by Dr. Ramadan Ilazi, the paper notes that Kosovo imported approximately €920 million worth of goods from China in 2025, making China Kosovo’s third‑largest important partner after Germany, and Türkiye, despite Kosovo’s free trade agreement with Ankara, and no diplomatic relations with Beijing. The analysis highlights that Kosovo’s imports from China have expanded steadily and doubled over the past four years, with China now accounting for around 13 percent of Kosovo’s imports. “For KCSS, focusing on unwanted foreign influence in the Kosovo is about anticipating how economic exposure can translate into political leverage, and security and strategic vulnerabilities,” said Mentor Vrajolli, Executive Director of KCSS. “As Kosovo deepens trade ties with China, despite the absence of normal diplomatic relations, this trend deserves serious attention for its potential ramifications on Kosovo’s longer‑term positioning in relation to the United States and the European Union.” The paper situates Kosovo’s evolving trade pattern within the wider Western Balkans context, where several countries have already experienced politically contentious engagement with China through large‑scale infrastructure loans, procurement practices, and technology cooperation. It underscores that, unlike many of its neighbors, Kosovo has remained at political distance from Beijing, however, the paper argues that dependence can develop also quietly through market dynamics and supply chains. “The purpose is not to be alarmist,” said Dr. Ramadan Ilazi, author of the paper. “The concern is the direction of travel of our country, since imports from China have doubled since 2021, while Kosovo has almost no exports to China and no formal mechanisms for economic dispute‑resolution. In a system, such as China’s, where state and economy are not only closely intertwined, but in practice, one, economic cooperation is rarely politically neutral and especially when the country in question does not even recognise Kosovo and consistently supports Serbia’s position in international forums.” The paper points to relevant experiences, such as Lithuania’s trade disruption following tensions over Taiwan representation and South Korea’s economic exposure during the THAAD dispute, to illustrate how economic links can become instruments of pressure when political disagreements arise. The discussion paper also flags the broader normative dimension, arguing that Chinese engagement in the region has often operated in ways that can undercut rule‑of‑law standards, including through practices such as lex specialis in procurement in other Western Balkan contexts.
Topic:
Risk, Trade, Imports, Supply Chains, and Dependency
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, Kosovo, and Balkans

69. The Evolution and Ramifications of the Iran-Saudi Rivalry Through Multiple Lenses: A Review of Mabon, Fraihat and Mohammad

Author:
Ahmet Furkan Özyakar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This review endeavors to identify key themes and critical perspectives discernible in the scholarship of Simon Mabon’s The Struggle for Supremacy in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Iran, Ibrahim Fraihat’s Iran and Saudi Arabia: Taming a Chaotic Conflict, and Talal Mohammad’s Iranian-Saudi Rivalry since 1979: In the Words of Kings and Clerics, who have meticulously investigated Iranian-Saudi relations in the Middle Eastern context. Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, bilateral relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have assumed paramount importance in elucidating the multifaceted political, religious, cultural, economic, and societal dynamics of the Middle East. The postrevolutionary trajectory brought a volte-face to relations, instigating a protracted period of rivalry and conflict spanning four decades, thereby catalyzing the escalation of conflicts across the Middle East. Both countries perceive each other as existential security threats, while concurrently aspiring for regional hegemony. Amidst this backdrop, seminal events such as Saudi Arabia’s support of Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the recalibration of the political landscape after the United States (US)-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the reverberations of the Arab Spring, the execution of Nimr al-Nimr1 in 2016, and the Yemen Civil War have markedly intensified the discord in bilateral relations between Riyadh and Tehran. Although there have been short periods of restrained rapprochement and diplomatic overtures, the prevailing atmosphere of acrimony and relentless pursuit of dominance, both regionally and within the greater Islamic sphere, determine the framework of their relations. Consequently, pejorative labels such as “suspicion”, “infidel”, “enemy”, and “confrontation” often feature in describing the complicated dynamics characterizing Saudi-Iranian relations.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Book Review, Rivalry, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

70. The Image of Imperial Russia as an Enemy in the Iranians’ Collective Memory

Author:
Saeed Khavarinejad
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This research tried to uncover the historical factors that have instilled a deep-rooted distrust of Russia in the Iranians’ collective memory. The researcher employed a case study strategy to examine historical empirical data and analyzed the consequences of the conflicts between Persia/Iran and Imperial Russia through collective trauma theory. The research discovered that 1) the 9th–12th clashes and the Russo-Persian Wars in the 17th–19th centuries and their subsequent treaties of Gulistan, Turkmenchay, and later, Akhal, and 2) Imperial Russia’s interventions in Iran during Constitutional Revolution, including the shelling of the Iranian Parliament in 1911, threatening Iranian government by issuing two ultimatums in 1911, the occupation and atrocity against Iranians in Tabriz in 1909–1918, the shelling of the Holy Shrine in Mashhad in 1912, and occupying Iran during Persian Campaign in the First World War in 1914–1918, which later followed with Soviet occupation from 1941 to 1946 in World War II, were among the primary factors which led to distrust of Russia in Iranian collective memory to the present. The evidence for anti-Russian sentiments in Iranian collective memory was identified as contempt in historiographical and literary works, hatred in religious circles, and Russophobia and conspiracy theories among Iranian politicians. The author concluded that the image of Imperial Russia as an enemy in the collective memory of Iranians has been shaped by the transgenerational and lasting effects of the memory of historical events, making the feeling of victimization toward Russia an integral part of Iranian contemporary identity.
Topic:
Imperialism, War, History, Literature, Intervention, Collective Memory, and Distrust
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, and Middle East

71. Letter from Joseon to Korea: International Politics of the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Muhammad Eren Yıldırım
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
South Korea has indispensable military relations with the United States (US), especially in the context of its hostile relations with North Korea. In addition, China’s giant economic power makes South Korea reluctant to abandon its relations with China. Yet another significant factor complicating the regional dynamics for South Korea is the unresolved historical issues inherited from the imperial exploitation by the Japanese Empire on the Korean peninsula. This book aims to replace the narrative of South Korea’s as an “agent” in the global arena, considering its historical values and above-mentioned transforming conditions, with a multifaceted approach called “strategic pragmatism.” The author asks the following questions: what resources does South Korea have in its foreign policy-making processes?, what is its strategy based on these resources?, and what are the sources of the fundamental beliefs that construct the policymakers’ perception of South Korea’s foreign policy strategy?
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Book Review, Regional Politics, and Strategic Pragmatism
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

72. Power of Bonding and Non-Western Emerging Great Powers Engagement: Comparing China and India’s Soft Power Strategy in Pakistan

Author:
Abdur Rahman Fuad
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Power of Bonding and Non-Western Emerging Great Powers Engagement: Comparing China and India’s Soft Power Strategy in Pakistan by Md. Nazmul Islam is a scholarly exploration that pioneers new perspectives in International Relations. It offers a unique and fresh insight into how non-Western emerging great powers, specifically China and India, utilize soft power strategies to engage with Pakistan. The significance of this four-chapter book lies in its departure from traditional Western-centric viewpoints, providing a distinct lens to comprehend the geopolitical and cultural strategies of these major Asian powers. This unique perspective on non-Western soft power will intrigue scholars, policymakers, and individuals interested in international relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Book Review, Soft Power, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, India, and Asia

73. Myths of Modern History: From the French Revolution to the 20th Century World Wars and the Cold War

Author:
Klevis Kolasi
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
Jacques R. Pauwels’ Myths of Modern History offers a bold and accessible critique of the dominant narratives shaping our understanding of modern history, from the French Revolution to the present. As the culmination of the author’s acclaimed trilogy (The Great Class War 1914–1918, The Myth of the Good War, and Big Business and Hitler), this work provides a concise counter-history of twelve key events, analyzed in twelve chapters, that have helped define the modern world. Pauwels deconstructs myths perpetuated by the media, elites, and conventional historiography —myths that promote a sanitized and benevolent view of capitalism’s role. In doing so, he challenges readers to reconsider historical processes and their systemic causes.
Topic:
Cold War, War, History, Capitalism, Book Review, and French Revolution
Political Geography:
Global Focus

74. The Asian 21st Century

Author:
Azhar Waqar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
“The Asian 21st Century” is a compilation of essays and articles by Kishore Mahbubani that covers various topics related to the transition of power especially in the context of the geopolitical and economic rise of Asia. In this book, instead of giving an overarching definition of Asia, the author focuses on certain countries, particularly China, Japan, South Korea, India and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries. The book has been divided into four sections; the first section is titled “The End of Era of Western Domination”, the second “The Asian Renaissance”, the third is comprised of articles related to “The Peaceful Rise of China”, and the last one is titled “The Globalization, Multilateralism and Cooperation.”
Topic:
Economics, Geopolitics, Book Review, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Japan, China, India, Asia, and South Korea

75. Understanding Global South Perspectives on Taiwan

Author:
Henrietta Levin and Hugh Grant-Chapman
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
To develop a better understanding of Global South perspectives on cross-Strait dynamics and Taiwan’s engagement with the developing world, the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies convened an international task force consisting of 20 leading scholars and practitioners from Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Over the course of four workshops, task force members analyzed the increasing support that many Global South countries have offered for Beijing’s position on Taiwan, and how U.S. policy affects the position of Global South countries. They also considered opportunities for Taiwan to enhance its economic, diplomatic, and people-to-people engagement across the Global South. This brief summarizes the key takeaways from the task force’s deliberations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Global South, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and Global South

76. Europe Needs an ASAP Program for Air Defense

Author:
Max Bergmann, Otto Svendsen, and Jonathan Burchell
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Operation Epic Fury, the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, is consuming vast quantities of air defense interceptors—expensive munitions that were already in critically short supply before the operation was launched. European countries depend heavily on U.S.-produced air defense systems and munitions for their own defense and for protecting Ukraine. During the winter, Russian missiles and drones bombarded Ukrainian forces, as well as its cities and energy infrastructure, making air defense munitions vital to Ukraine’s survival. Europe now faces a looming crisis: The U.S.-made interceptors it needs, both for Ukraine today and for its own rearmament against Russia, may simply not be available. In response, European states should launch a crash program to rapidly expand production of European-made air defense systems and interceptors. Modeled on the European Union’s 2023 Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), a new “ASAP for Air Defense” would channel EU funds into European munitions and systems—such as the IRIS-T, SAMP/T, and NASAMS systems—to reduce dependence on U.S. suppliers for the medium-range and cruise missile defense systems where European alternatives exist.
Topic:
International Security, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Air Defense
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

77. Deepening Strategic Alignment: Priorities for the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Kristi Govella and Nicholas Szechenyi
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
With new leadership in both countries, Japan and the United States are facing an increasingly uncertain global environment. As Japan prepares to revise its core national strategy documents, it is a particularly important time for Tokyo and Washington to deepen their strategic alignment. Although bilateral cooperation continues to proceed relatively smoothly at the operational level, there is a pressing need to articulate a strategic vision to guide alliance priorities and facilitate effective implementation of common objectives.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

78. Monitoring Demilitarised Zones in the Age of Uncrewed and AI Systems: Lessons from the Korean DMZ

Author:
Michael M. Bosack
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:
Demilitarised zones (DMZs) have demonstrated their utility in post-war peace processes. They separate forces, mitigating the risk of deliberate aggression or accidental incidents alike. However, the effective monitoring of DMZs can be challenging, because they tend to cover wide areas, sometimes with dangerous terrain replete with human-made and natural hazards. As such, parties responsible for monitoring DMZs rely on a passive posture where they simply respond to reported incidents, an active posture using personnel or technology wherever resources and the terrain will allow, or a combination of the two. With continued advances in uncrewed systems and artificial intelligence (AI), there are now ever-increasing calls for the employment of these technologies in DMZ monitoring functions. This is true of the Korean DMZ, a 240 km-long, 4 km-wide swathe of land that bifurcates the Korean Peninsula between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (or North Korea) and the Republic of Korea (or South Korea). In this area, the South Korean government is seeking to enhance its monitoring capabilities by using uncrewed and AI-based systems. In theory, there are many benefits to this approach, but in practice, policymakers and practitioners must address five inter-related dilemmas to ensure that these technologies actually support peace implementation instead of contributing to unintended conflict and tension. The problems associated with these dilemmas are not insurmountable, but they require deliberate steps and conscious implementation to maximise the opportunities that modern technologies provide while mitigating their risks. The lessons from the Korean DMZ are applicable in any post-war demilitarized zone, including the one envisioned between Russia and Ukraine. This Policy Brief proceeds as follows. It first outlines the function of DMZs in post-war environments and the practical challenges associated with monitoring them. It then examines the potential advantages that uncrewed and AI-enabled systems offer in addressing these challenges. Next, it assesses the implications of five inter-related policy dilemmas – legal, moral, technological, practical, and security – that arise from introducing such systems into DMZ contexts. This analytical framework is then applied to the Korean DMZ as a contemporary case study. Finally, policy recommendations are advanced aimed at ensuring that the use of emerging technologies strengthens, rather than undermines, peace implementation and long-term stability in DMZs.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Post-Conflict, and Demilitarized Zones (DMZs)
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

79. Managing the Transatlantic Relationship in the Absence of US Leadership: Understanding the Trump Administration’s National Security Strategy

Author:
Paul Fritch
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:
The Trump administration’s December 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) represents a radical shift in US foreign policy, involving a move from global leadership of a rules-based international order to unabashed nationalism and regional hegemony. The new strategy no longer views the country’s sprawling network of alliances and partnerships and its ability to attract and integrate high-level talent from around the world as unique strengths, but rather as vulnerabilities to be mitigated. However, as jarring as these substantive changes are, the document’s structural changes and the irregular process that produced it may prove more significant in demonstrating just how sharply Washington is turning away from 80 years of bipartisan foreign policy consensus. The change is evident not just in the Trump administration’s policies, but – crucially – in the decision-making process that produces them. The new NSS is best understood as the formalisation of the administration’s abandonment of traditional policy coordination and strategic planning itself, an effort that has included the removal of senior career diplomats, military commanders, and intelligence officers; the systematic dismissal of senior judge advocates general and inspectors general; and the firing of many National Security Council (NSC) staff. The collective result of these steps, which find their natural culmination in the NSS and the National Defense Strategy (NDS) that followed in January 2026, is a policymaking process that is less informed by objective intelligence and analysis, less constrained by legal and policy advice or alliance consultation, and thus more subject to impulsiveness and ideological influence. Both of these developments – a new “America First” nationalism that eschews multilateral constraints and an erratic decision-making process that produces unpredictable and often impracticable outcomes – require a fundamental assessment by the country’s partners of their approach to the United States, both bilaterally and within established multilateral frameworks. This Policy Brief examines the practical implications of the 2025 NSS and the dramatically changed decision-making process it represents. For transatlantic allies and other middle powers, the central question is no longer whether US strategy has changed, but how to operate effectively in an environment of reduced predictability and diminished US strategic anchoring.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

80. Necessary Neighbors: Poland and Ukraine Must Stabilize Their Strained Partnership

Author:
Yuliia Korotia
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Polish-Ukrainian relations have moved from a phase of exceptional solidarity to one of mounting tension and deepening structural strain. What initially seemed to be a long-term strategic partnership grounded in shared security interests has evolved into a more fragmented and fragile, at times almost hostile, relationship. This shift, visible across political, economic, and social dimensions, risks undermining not only bilateral cooperation but also the broader foundations of regional stability at a moment of ongoing war, strategic uncertainty in Europe, and a potentially antagonistic transatlantic relationship. If Poland and Ukraine fail to adopt a more realistic, constructive, and mutually attentive approach to the partnership, their cooperation will weaken in ways that directly affect military logistics, EU cohesion, regional resilience, and resistance to hybrid threats. Understanding how the relationship has changed, and what deeper dynamics are driving this, is essential for assessing the risks ahead and identifying pathways to improve the relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

81. If China Attacks Taiwan: The Consequences for China of “Minor Conflict” and “Major War” Scenarios

Author:
Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Research on the possibility and likely outcome of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait has expanded rapidly in recent years. Studies have focused on a broad range of questions related to deterrence, potential conflict dynamics, and possible conflict outcomes. Tabletop exercises have been used to identify gaps in the capabilities of the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and Taiwan to assess potential escalation pathways and to better understand war termination strategies.1 Comparatively less attention has been devoted to the potential impact of cross-Strait conflict on the PRC itself and how that impact could shape President Xi Jinping’s risk calculus and decision-making about use of force against Taiwan. Xi’s risk calculus is crucial to understanding if and under what circumstances Beijing might take aggressive actions against Taiwan because any such decision would carry profound political, economic, and strategic consequences for the PRC and for him personally. Xi has tied his legitimacy to putting the PRC on an irreversible path toward the “China Dream” of national rejuvenation by 2049 and unifying Taiwan with the motherland is deemed essential to that goal. Yet a military conflict over Taiwan would risk massive economic disruption, catastrophic military losses, significant social unrest, and devastating sanctions, all of which could turn his dream into a nightmare and undermine his political authority. Xi’s calculus must therefore weigh the perceived benefits of using force to achieve unification against the potential costs. The centrality of Xi’s risk calculus to understanding future PRC decision-making about potential actions against Taiwan demands deeper investigation than has taken place so far. This report seeks to fill this research gap by examining how use of force against Taiwan would impact the PRC in four key areas: its economy, its military capabilities, its social stability, and international costs. Each issue set is evaluated in a separate paper, although all four are interrelated, a factor that the report’s conclusion addresses. Logan Wright and Charlie Vest assess potential implications for the PRC economy. Joel Wuthnow analyzes the possible impact on the Chinese military. Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Jake Rinaldi consider the potential risks for social stability. Zack Cooper examines the likely international responses and costs. There is a broad range of possible scenarios for PRC use of force against Taiwan. Potential actions taken by Beijing may vary in terms of intensity and duration. To make comparisons possible across the four papers, the authors were given two baseline scenarios, a limited conflict and a major war. Both are described in detail below. In outlining these scenarios, specific triggers were not established. They would nevertheless be important in determining international responses and subsequently would have implications for the PRC economy and possibly for social stability. Although the absence of a detailed trigger is a limiting factor, in any crisis multiple actors will draw their own conclusions about what sparked the conflict, so perceptions of who was at fault would differ across countries. The authors were also permitted to assess cases situated between a minor conflict and a major war, given that the economic, military, political, and international costs may vary discontinuously across a range of scenarios. All scenarios were assumed to occur between 2026 and 2030. The first scenario that authors assess is a minor conflict lasting several weeks. In this case, PRC ships and aircraft surround Taiwan after a series of deadly air and maritime confrontations between their forces. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) then attempts to conduct a “quarantine” of major ports in Taiwan. The United States intervenes and its warships escort commercial vessels through the blockade zone without incident. For the purposes of this scenario, dozens of PRC and Taiwan armed forces members are assumed killed in incidents in the air and at sea. There are no losses of foreign personnel. The conflict terminates when both sides agree to de-escalate the situation. This results in a relatively low intensity and short duration conflict. The second scenario that authors were asked to review was a major conflict of several months that ends in a PLA defeat. This conflict starts with an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in which initial PLA missile strikes target Taiwan’s military and US forces in Japan and Guam. PRC forces land on Taiwan but supplies and follow-on forces are hampered by sustained Taiwanese and US strikes on ships and aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait. After several months of heavy fighting, PRC forces withdraw to the mainland after losing roughly 100,000 personnel. Taiwan suffers approximately 50,000 military casualties and 50,000 civilian casualties. The United States loses 5,000 military members and 1,000 civilians, while Japan loses 1,000 military members and 500 civilians. Beyond this, no substantial foreign losses occur. The conflict terminates when the PLA withdraws from the main island of Taiwan but retains control of the Kinmen and Matsu Islands. The purpose of these scenarios is not to assert that this is how a conflict over Taiwan would play out. The intention is instead to help describe in more detail what the costs would be to the PRC of a failed crossstrait operation. An important caveat is that the authors were asked to make their own assessments of the impact on the PRC in each of the four areas examined. They were not asked to put themselves in Xi’s (or his successor’s) shoes. Xi and his colleagues might underestimate (or overestimate) the costs that the PRC would incur in these scenarios. Even if Beijing anticipates that the costs of taking an action against Taiwan are high, they might proceed despite the perceived risks. National leaders often make choices that overlook high costs if the perceived benefits are high or overridden by political considerations. Xi might conclude that not acting is more costly for him personally than taking a risky action that he believes is necessary to demonstrate resolve. For example, if Xi views a step taken by Taipei as intended to permanently separate it from the PRC, and especially if he judges that Washington supports that goal, he is likely to move against Taiwan even if he expects that the PLA would suffer high casualties in attempting to seize it. Overall, the authors of these essays demonstrate that the costs to the PRC of a failed military operation against Taiwan would be substantial. As noted above, this is not to suggest that Beijing would necessarily be deterred from starting a conflict in the first place. But it would be a mistake to simply assume that the PRC would prevail in a conflict over Taiwan. The history of failed amphibious operations is long, and these essays demonstrate that an unsuccessful PRC-initiated conflict would have severe negative consequences for the country’s economy, military, social stability, and international standing.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

82. A Long Time Coming: Europe and India have discovered a strategic partnership

Author:
Garima Mohan
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The relationship between Europe and India is on the cusp of change. Later this month, in a historic first, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will serve as guest of honor, a position reserved for India’s top partners, at the country’s Republic Day ceremony. At the subsequent EU-India summit, the two sides are likely to sign a long-elusive free trade agreement (FTA) and an expansive security and defense partnership. They are also expected to announce initiatives designed to boost skilled migration, and to foster cooperation between European and Indian industry to enhance economic security. There are several other positive developments. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz just undertook his first official visit to India, also his first to a non-NATO ally. Accompanied by a substantial business delegation, he secured many agreements on defense industrial cooperation, semiconductors, and critical minerals. Recent German governments have made a point of sending top leadership to India before official visits to China, and Merz’s visit continues that convention. French President Emmanuel Macron is due to follow in February to cement his own country’s ties with New Delhi on emerging technologies, thereby broadening an already substantial and critical strategic partnership. India’s foreign minister, in a breakthrough for India’s small-group diplomacy in Europe, just joined a Weimar Format meeting for the first time. Lastly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit the continent in spring for the next India-Nordic summit. For some observers this momentum is the result of the rocky relationships that Europe and India have with the United States. In a world of fractured alliances and partnerships, Europe and India need each other like never before. But the groundwork for their current ties was laid over the last decade. Structural factors such as competition with China, and India’s policy of diversification that led it to focus on ties with the West, have brought them closer and raised bilateral ambitions. The relationship is, however, not without divergences, particularly on approaches to Russia. Based on interviews with policymakers in New Delhi, Paris, Berlin, The Hague, and Brussels, this piece will trace the evolution of the “India agenda” in European foreign policy and lay out Europe’s position among New Delhi’s foreign policy priorities.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, and India

83. Leveraging Remittances for Economic Transformation inECCAS Countries

Author:
Salim Ahmed Vessah
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Remittances are increasingly becoming a strategic yet underutilized lever for economictransformation in the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS). Across Sub-Saharan Africa, remittance inflows reached a record USD 54 billion in 2023. Within ECCAS, theDemocratic Republic of Congo (approximately USD 1.4 billion) and Cameroon (about USD 375million) were the main recipients, while other member states received comparatively modestamounts. Although these flows do not collectively reach USD 5 billion at the regional level, theyalready surpass foreign direct investment or official development assistance in specific countriesand play a stabilizing role in household welfare. However, their developmental potential remainslargely untapped due to limited financial inclusion, high transfer costs, and the absence ofeffective institutional mechanisms to channel remittances toward productive investment and economic structural transformation. At the same time, ECCAS economies continue to grapple with persistent challenges : low industrialproductivity, weak competitiveness, fragile regulatory systems, insufficient infrastructure, and poorgovernance quality. These weaknesses are compounded by high levels of financial exclusion,limited access to affordable credit, and rising unemployment especially among young people andvulnerable populations. Combined, these constraints hinder progress toward the SustainableDevelopment Goals (SDGs) and the aspirations of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 . In thiscontext, better mobilization and strategic use of remittances constitute a viable and largelyuntapped alternative to support economic transformation and resilience.
Topic:
Economic Transformation, Remittances, and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
Political Geography:
Africa

84. Improving access to electricity for greater energy justice inEconomic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)

Author:
Salim Ahmed Vessah
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
ECCAS’s growth is constrained by a deep electrification deficit that undermines energy justice,human development, and inclusive structural transformation. Despite its immense energypotential, the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) remains one of the leastelectrified sub-regions in Africa. , access to electricity was estimated at just 56.7%, far below thesub-Saharan African average of 72%. This persistent energy deficit fuels domestic energyinsecurity, as millions of poor and vulnerable households still rely on traditional and polluting fuelsfor cooking and heating. The consequences are profound: weakened social services, health risks,reduced productivity, and slowed economic diversification. The impacts span multiple sectors. Inrural areas, health centers lack reliable power for vaccine refrigeration, emergency care, oressential equipment. Households using biomass-based fuels face heightened risks of respiratorydiseases, disproportionately affecting women and children. In education, limited lighting andinadequate digital infrastructure reduce study hours and widen the learning gap. More broadly, unreliable electricity remains a major constraint on industrialization, agro-processing, and private-sector development, weakening the region’s competitiveness and slowing progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals .
Topic:
Development, Industrialization, Energy, Sustainable Development, and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
Political Geography:
Africa

85. From International Fragmentation to Industrial Cohesion:The Missing Link in AfCFTA Implementation

Author:
Salim Ahmed Vessah, Stephane Atangana, and Larissa Ntoubia
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
As global geo-economic fragmentation accelerates, African economies face rising external shocksfrom supply chain reconfiguration, protectionism, and volatile capital flows. The AfricanContinental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a strategic pathway to build regional resilience,expand industrial capacity, and strengthen economic sovereignty. Yet, despite early trade growth,intra-African trade remains limited, constrained by persistent non-tariff barriers, regulatoryfragmentation, weak logistics infrastructure, and insufficient productive capacity. Without deeperdomestic and regional reforms, AfCFTA risks delivering trade diversion rather than sustainedindustrial transformation. This brief argues that Africa’s central challenge is not market accessalone, but the absence of industrial cohesion that enables firms to scale, integrate into regionalvalue chains, and compete globally. It proposes a reform agenda focused on accelerated NTBremoval, targeted industrial value-chain development, regulatory convergence, digital tradeintegration, and coordinated continental trade diplomacy. Translating AfCFTA from legal ambitioninto economic performance is essential for inclusive growth, resilience, and long-termcompetitiveness in a fragmenting global economy.
Topic:
Resilience, Fragmentation, Geoeconomics, African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and Global Economy
Political Geography:
Africa

86. Chinese Loans to Sub-Saharan African countries: BalancingDevelopment and Dependency

Author:
Ahmed Salim Vessah
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, China has become sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) foremost tradingpartner and the region’s main bilateral creditor, profoundly reshaping its financial and geopoliticallandscape. Between 2000 and 2022, Chinese lenders extended over USD 170 billion in loans toAfrican countries , with major recipients (such as Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia)each receiving between USD 5 and 40 billion. Today, China accounts for around 20% of SSA’sbilateral external debt , underscoring its strategic importance in the continent’s developmenttrajectory. This Policy Brief argues that while Chinese loans are instrumental in addressing Africa’smassive infrastructure deficit, they concurrently heighten debt vulnerabilities and geopoliticaldependence. The attractiveness of Chinese financing is best understood in relation to Africa’spersistent structural needs. According to the African Development Bank (AfDB, 2024) , SSA facesan annual infrastructure financing gap of USD 100-150 billion, far exceeding the capacity ofdomestic revenues and traditional donors. Chinese loans therefore stand out due to their speed of approval focus on large-scale physical infrastructure, and limited policy conditionality’s comparedto Western lenders. For many African governments, this makes Chinese credit an appealing andpragmatic alternative for accelerating development.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Infrastructure, Trade, and Dependency
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

87. Glocalising Universal Health Coverage in Cameroon:Implications for good governance, equity and inclusiveness

Author:
Constantine Asahngwa
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Despite recent health financing reforms, quality healthcare services remain largely inaccessible tomany Cameroonians with financial barriers being one of the primary reasons. The UniversalHealth Coverage (UHC) program was introduced as a way of enhancing equitable access toquality services, without heavy financial spending for patients. However, rolling out the program inCameroon has raised some conceptual ambiguity as there is no clear understanding of what UHCis all about, including its implementation. Drawing from desk review of policy documents andresearch papers, we argue that UHC has been glocalized in Cameroon and the process hasimplication for good governance, equity and inclusiveness, which are the core values in measuring and assessing its performance. We begin with a presentation of the conceptualization of UHCfrom a global perspective, followed by the glocalization of UHC in Cameroon, its implication forgood governance, access and inclusiveness, and some recommendations for action.
Topic:
Governance, Public Policy, Public Health, Health Insurance, Inclusion, and Equity
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

88. Strengthening Democracy, Deepening Practice, and Shapingthe Future of Governance in Central Africa

Author:
Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Democracy in Central Africa is at a critical juncture. While citizen demand for accountability hasgrown, political instability, fragile institutions, and shrinking civic space continue to underminedemocratic progress. Elections, though increasingly frequent, remain high-stakes events that caneither strengthen legitimacy or expose systemic weaknesses. Ensuring transparency, credibility,and institutional resilience is therefore essential. This policy brief argues that the region’s democratic future depends on translating continentalnorms into national practice, strengthening institutions, and cultivating a civically literate publiccapable of sustaining democratic culture. Without these foundations, reforms risk remainingsymbolic rather than transformative.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Africa and Central Africa

89. Lessons from Community-Based Health Insurance forScaling Universal Health Coverage in Cameroon

Author:
Regina Sinsai and Constantine Asahngwa
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Cameroon’s Universal Health Coverage (UHC) program, launched in 2023, aims to reducefinancial barriers to healthcare. However, coverage remains low (6.4%). Community-Based HealthInsurance (CBHI) schemes, despite their limitations, offer valuable lessons for UHCimplementation—particularly in governance, community engagement, and risk pooling. This briefoutlines these lessons and provides actionable recommendations to strengthen UHC.
Topic:
Governance, Health Insurance, and Community Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

90. Closing the Health Insurance Gap for Cameroon’s HealthWorkforce

Author:
Regina Sinsai, Constantine Asahngwa, and Ronald Gobina
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Healthcare workers (HCWs) are essential to Cameroon’s health system, yet most lack adequatehealth insurance coverage. Current schemes—NSIF, employer-based plans, and UHC—fail toprotect HCWs from catastrophic health costs. This brief examines the coverage gap, itsimplications, and policy actions to safeguard the health workforce.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Public Policy, Workforce, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

91. Virtual Briefing Series | US Military Posture and Strike Options Against Iran

Author:
Kevin Donegan, Mick Mulroy, and Jason Campbell
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On January 14, as the Iranian regime brutally cracked down on the largest street protests the country had seen in years, US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to persevere, posting on social media “help is on its way.” At the time, however, limited US military resources in the theater constrained the president’s military options. In the ensuing month since Trump’s post, the Pentagon has repositioned significant forces to the Middle East. This has led to wide speculation that the US is preparing for renewed strikes on Iran even as the Trump administration pursues diplomatic talks with the Iranian regime. To better understand the military planning and force posture dynamics shaping US policy choices, this briefing featured two Distinguished Military Fellows, former commander of the 5th Fleet VADM Kevin Donegan, USN (Ret.), and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Mick Mulroy. MEI Senior Fellow Jason Campbell moderated the discussion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Protests, Military, and Airstrikes
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

92. Virtual Briefing Series | Tehran’s Brewing Troubles

Author:
Zeina AlShaib, Alan Eyre, and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
This briefing discussed the ongoing Iranian protests and severe government crackdown, which have rocked Iran since last week. The street demonstrations, sparked by the country’s economic nosedive and at times turning violent, are the largest in three years. As regime arrests and killings of protesters have intensified, US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene, his remarks potentially taking on a more vivid significance in light of the American military extraction over the weekend of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro — an ally of Tehran. This conversation featured Alan Eyre, Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Eyre retired from the US Foreign Service in September 2023, after a 40-year government career, which included negotiating with the Iranian government over its nuclear program. The discussion also featured Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at MEI and author of the book The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: The United States, Foreign Policy, and Political Rivalry since 1979.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

93. Virtual Briefing Series | What is the Kurds’ place in an evolving Syria?

Author:
Zeina AlShaib, Noah Bonsey, and Amberin Zaman
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
A four-day cease-fire between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) was extended over the weekend. The truce follows a dramatic confrontation in which government forces seized large swaths of territory from Kurdish control, reshaping Syria’s political map. What do these developments mean for the country’s political transition? This briefing featured Charles Lister, Senior Fellow with MEI and Director of its Syria Initiative. The briefing will also feature Amberin Zaman, Al-Monitor’s chief correspondent, as well as Noah Bonsey, Senior Advisor on Syria with the International Crisis Group. Our experts examined the latest surge in fighting and its impact on earlier plans for the SDF’s integration with Damascus, the fate of ISIS detainees in northeastern Syria, the US response to these developments, and Turkey’s role and influence in the country.
Topic:
Syrian War, Kurds, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Post-Conflict, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

94. How can India Create More Jobs? Unleashing the 1.4 billion: A Blueprint for India s Job Led Resurrection

Author:
Ejaz Ghani
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This paper discusses that while mature firms are becoming “net job destroyers” as they automate, it is the young, agile “Ojazelles” — firms less than five years old — that are currently breathing life into the economy, creating 45% of all new jobs. Yet, these young job creators are being strangled by “Structural Brakes”: a Collateral Trap that prizes ancestral land over fresh ideas, and a Regulatory Tax that punishes firms for growing. The paper proposes a New Social Compact to release these brakes. By leveraging India’s world leading Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), we can bypass the old “Land Finance Nexus” and move to Information Based Lending, where a young person’s talent and data become their new collateral.
Topic:
Economy, Tax Systems, Labor Market, Lending, and Jobs
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

95. Evaluation of Feminist Philosophy of Begum Rokeya Shakawat Hussain with Other Scholars in the Pre-and Post-Colonial Era

Author:
Md. Habibur Rahman and Md. Aktarul Islam
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Mrs. S.R. Hussain, unanimously well-known as Begum Rokeya Shakawat Hussain or simply Begum Rokeya, was a Bengali feminist writer, and social activist who advocated throughout her lifetime for women’s education and socio-economic emancipation. Her roles in the awakening of the Bengali women of Bangladesh and India will always be remembered with reverence and inspired thousands to break the shackles of the vicious circle of backwardness and superstitions. The main objective of this research paper is to evaluate the feminist philosophy of Rokeya with that of other change makers in the pre-and post-colonial era. Furthermore, it has focused on Rokeya’s feminist philosophy and the contributions of other celebrated feminist activists around the world. This research has followed the qualitative approach by reviewing secondary data and information. The findings of this research have shown that some women who initiated various reformation movements in Bengal were vocal in bringing about socio-economic changes and fought against injustice and discrimination alongside their male counterparts. The global feminist and Islamic divine books have also played a vital role for women’s rights and empowerment. The philosophy and contributions of Begum Rokeya’s work are the major catalysts for eliminating gender disparity and balanced development in society.
Topic:
Human Rights, Women, Philosophy, Feminism, Post-Colonial, and Begum Rokeya
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

96. India's Neighbourhood PolicyA Collaborative Approach or a Bid for Dominance

Author:
Rabbani Attar and Anusha Attar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The turmoil in India's neighbouring countries can largely be attributed to the framework of India's neighbourhood policy: its underlying principles, strategy, and implementation. The principles refer to the norms and practices guiding the policy; the strategy involves how priorities are structured; and the implementation pertains to the methods of execution. These norms shape the actions taken to achieve set objectives, while priorities dictate the order and significance assigned to those objectives. The modes represent the pathways through which the policy is carried out. This paper critically examines the principles, priorities, and methods of India's policy towards its neighbors, suggesting that India seeks to establish dominance and often presents its national interests as those of the entire region.
Topic:
Hegemony, Strategic Interests, Regional Politics, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

97. Commentary: Democracy, Democratization, Institutions, and Inequality: Nobel-Winning Insights from Daron Acemoglu and His Collaborators

Author:
Ali Resul Usul
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This paper explores the seminal contributions of Daron Acemoglu and his collaborators to the understanding of democracy, democratization, institutions, and inequality, as recognized by the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. It delves into the stability and erosion of democratic institutions, emphasizing the interplay between historical legacies, class structures, and strategic political interactions. The analysis synthesizes insights from rational choice theory, historical institutionalism, and comparative political economy, highlighting the critical role of both formal and informal institutions in shaping political outcomes. Key concepts such as critical junctures, path dependence, and the dynamic balance between state capacity and societal power— termed the “Red Queen effect”—are examined to explain the persistence and transformation of political regimes. The paper also addresses the implications of economic inequality for democratic stability and the continuous process of adaptation required to maintain inclusive institutions. By integrating theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence, this work provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the complex dynamics of democratization and offers policy recommendations for strengthening democratic resilience in the face of contemporary challenges.
Topic:
Democratization, Democracy, Inequality, Institutions, and Path Dependence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

98. Forever the Frenemies of the Middle East? Türkiye’s Regional Relations with Iran, 2002 to 2023

Author:
Cem Savaş
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article investigates the puzzle of Türkiye’s fluctuating relations with Iran since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. Contrary to many scholars’ expectations, the AKP government’s relations with Iran have competition and rivalry rather than just cooperation. Having improved significantly in the early 2000s, the relations became tense following the Arab uprisings and Syria’s civil war. However, the relations between the two countries have included both cooperative and conflictual elements since 2016. This research argues that the most relevant level for analyzing Türkiye’s fluctuating foreign policy strategies toward Iran between 2002 and 2023 is regional. Using the regionalist approaches of Buzan and Wæver’s Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) and Lake and Morgan’s theory of regional orders, the article examines how the “local security externalities” of the Middle Eastern regional security complex (RSC) affect Türkiye-Iran regional relations by particularly focusing on speech acts of Turkish high-level foreign policy actors. By acknowledging the multi-layered nature of Middle Eastern politics, this study also considers the role of extra-regional actors and non-state armed groups in Turkish foreign policy attitudes toward Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, AKP, Regional Security, Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

99. The Logic of Foreign Policy: An Explanatory Model for Strategic Volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy Under the AKP Rule

Author:
Erol Kurubaş
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The AKP government in Türkiye has been following a foreign policy based on values and discourses rather than power and interests. However, despite the lack of a radical change in international conditions, contrasting approaches in terms of the nature of foreign policy, strategic orientation, foreign relations, and international image have been adopted by the same government over short intervals of time. While a first period was marked by a value-laden transformation, a second was marked by righteous and romantic discourse and actions pointing to more value-based mentality. In a third period, foreign policy was guided by a logic based on a populist and opportunist approach. This paper calls each of these bases that shape foreign policy a different logic of foreign policy. Accordingly, while the logic of the first period was constructed in “the modified base logic” and led to the quest for strategic depth in foreign policy, the logic of the second became “righteous-romantic” and resulted in “strategic instability”. The logic of third, on the other hand, was shaped by its reactive form and led to “strategic uncertainty”. In this way, the paper argues that the strategic volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy can be explained by the elements that constitute the logic of foreign policy and the interactions among them.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, AKP, and Volatility
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

100. Macroeconomic and distributional effects of fiscal consolidation measures in EU countries

Author:
Philipp Heimberger and Anna Matzner
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We provide new evidence on the effects of fiscal consolidation measures on output, unemployment, income inequality and consumer price inflation. To identify causal impacts, we use a narrative-based instrumental variable strategy drawing on historical records of exogenous fiscal changes motivated by deficit reduction, covering 12 EU countries from 1980 to 2020. Our results for the short to medium run show that fiscal consolidations (a) lower real output; (b) raise the unemployment rate; (c) increase income inequality; and d) reduce consumer price inflation. Contractionary macroeconomic effects are stronger during recessions than during non-recession periods.
Topic:
European Union, Income Inequality, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Austerity, Unemployment, and Fiscal Consolidation
Political Geography:
Europe