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53981. National Intelligence Estimate: The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implications for the United States

Author:
David F. Gordon, Donald Noah, and George Fidas
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death, accounting for a quarter to a third of all deaths worldwide. The spread of infectious diseases results from both human behavior such as lifestyle choices, land-use patterns, increased trade and travel, and inappropriate use of antibiotic drugs, as well as mutations in pathogens. These excerpts from a January 2000 National Intelligence Estimate highlight the rising global health threat of new and reemerging infectious diseases. The National Intelligence Council argues that the infectious disease threat will complicate U.S. and global security over the next twenty years. These diseases will endanger U.S. citizens at home and abroad, threaten U.S. armed forces deployed overseas, and exacerbate social and political instability in key countries and regions in which the United States has significant interests, according to the report.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

53982. Does FDI Increase Firm Value in Emerging Markets?

Author:
Wi Saeng Kim
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper conducts an event study for a sample of firms listed on the Korean Stock Exchange. The study finds that positive and statistically significant abnormal returns occur around the announcement date of foreign direct investments. This finding suggests that security prices in the Korean stock market do reflect firm-specific information, and that FDI by Korean MNCs are, on average, value increasing investment decisions. The finding is consistent with the studies of Doukas and Travlos (1988) and Fatemi (1984) which found similar results for U.S. MNCs.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Korea

53983. Civil Society From Abroad: the Role of Foreign Assistance in the Democratization of Poland

Author:
Grzegorz Ekiert and Jan Kubik
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
For a long time, the prevailing modes of conceptualizing regime transformations underplayed the role and importance of external actors, influences, and linkages. "Domestic factors - O'Donnell and Schmitter asserted - play a predominant role in the transition" (1986:19). This statement reflects both the peculiarities of the early cases belonging to the third wave of democratization and the limitations of the analytical outlook predominant at that time. Only recently did students of regime transitions recognized the role of external factors and foreign influences in shaping democratization in Eastern Europe and other regions (Pridham 1995; Pridham, Herring, and Sanford, eds. 1997). Perhaps this is because such factors have become more pronounced in recent years.
Topic:
Democratization and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Poland

53984. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of January 20, 2000

Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $26.5 billion in November, from $25.6 billion (revised) in October, as imports increased more than exports.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

53985. U.S. Government Statistics: R Expenditures as a Percent of GDP

Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
The Division of Science Resources Studies (SRS) of the National Science Foundation publishes the biennial report, National Patterns of R Resources. This report describes and analyzes current patterns of research and development (R) in the United States, in relation to the historical record and the reported R levels of other industrialized countries. For years in which the full report is not produced, current, annual statistics on national and international R trends are released in data updates like this one.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

53986. The Next Round of NATO Enlargement

Author:
Jeffrey Simon
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Since the revolutions of 1989–90 and the fall of the Berlin Wall, NATO has emerged as the backbone of Europe's security architecture. In response to the demands of outsiders for collaboration, NATO has consistently adhered to a strategy of inclusion to create a Europe whole and undivided. This was a conscious effort at the July 1990 London Summit, where NATO invited the Soviet Union and non-Soviet Warsaw Pact members “to establish regular diplomatic liaison with NATO,” and at the November 1991 Rome Summit, where it launched the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC) to include them. When the Soviet Union disintegrated in January 1992, NATO decided to include former Soviet republics in the NACC, thus attempting to ensure a Europe free and whole. The same strategy prevailed at the Brussels Summit in January 1994, which launched the Partnership for Peace (PFP) comprising members of NACC and those members of the Conference (now Organization) on Security and Cooperation in Europe that were able and willing to contribute. The July 1997 Madrid Summit decision to invite the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland to begin accession talks also was portrayed in terms of inclusion; the Alliance reaffirmed that it remained open to new members under Article 10, adding that “[N]o European democratic country . . . would be excluded from consideration.”
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Poland, London, Hungary, Brussels, and Czech Republic

53987. China Rising: New Challenges to the U.S. Security Posture

Author:
Todd M. Koca and Jason D. Ellis
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The nature, scope, and viability of the strategic relationship between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United States have emerged as leading security policy issues. Among the many reasons for this are: China's evidently growing defense budget and its military modernization campaign; its often threatening rhetoric over Taiwan; its reputed espionage activities; and disputes over collateral security issues, such as China's continuing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Furthermore, Beijing's lack of transparency concerning its strategic capabilities and modernization programs, and the intentions that undergird each, make it difficult to confidently forecast China's future direction; yet significant strategic decisions undertaken today will have far-reaching and long-term implications. There is a growing sense among defense analysts and specialists that the future disposition of Chinese strategic forces may only modestly resemble that of the past. Looking ahead, U.S. policy- makers must address three central questions: (1) the likely extent of China's strategic modernization; (2) the degree of complementarity of U.S. and PRC regional and strategic interests over time; and (3) the implications of each for U.S. foreign and defense policy.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Taiwan

53988. Military Lessons from Desert One to the Balkans

Author:
Ike Skelton
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Military leaders are often accused, usually unfairly, of fighting the last war. It would be a pretty poor general, however, who failed to learn from what worked and what didn't work when military plans were actually put to the test. The task is to correct what went wrong and to build on what went right without losing sight of the fact that conflicts in the future may be quite different from those in the past. It is the premise of this article that a careful look at significant U.S. military operations over about the past twenty years—roughly the period the author has served in Congress—can help shape answers to a surprisingly large number of contemporary issues in defense policy. What follows is a brief review of seven of these military operations, followed by a discussion of some important lessons.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Balkans

53989. "One China" and Relations Across the Taiwan Strait

Author:
James J. Przystup, Ronald N. Montaperto, and Gerald W. Faber
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Relations across the Taiwan Strait have reached an apparent impasse. Both China and Taiwan have, in a sense, painted themselves into corners. Yet, aware of the considerable costs that will inevitably be incurred by new and higher levels of tension or conflict, both President Jiang Zemin of China and Chen Shui-bian, the newly elected President of Taiwan, share a vital interest in finding a face-saving way out of their respective dilemmas without compromising their longer term objectives. In the process, each is being influenced and constrained by a number of factors related to politics, economics, and broad strategic interests. Overall, these factors will provide incentives to seek a reduction of tensions, at least in the short term. At the same time, years of mutual mistrust and the stark and growing differences between their respective political and social cultures will continue to affect the prospects for a mutually acceptable resolution of the issues separating China and Taiwan.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Taiwan

53990. Transforming the Armed Forces of Central and East Europe

Author:
Jeffrey Simon
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
As Central and East European (CEE) armed forces are reduced and restructured over the next decade, human and financial resources will be stretched and stressed, in some cases beyond capacity. CEE governments and societies will likely experience civil-military tension. Due to resource shortages, CEE Membership Action Plan (MAP) partners, who aspire to NATO membership, will be tempted to exaggerate defense planning and enlarge forces to accommodate their political objective of Euro-Atlantic integration.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe