- CIAO Search Results

201. Data Disquiet: Concerns about the Governance of Data for Generative AI

Author:: Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The growing popularity of large language models (LLMs) has raised concerns about their accuracy. These chatbots can be used to provide information, but it may be tainted by errors or made-up or false information (hallucinations) caused by problematic data sets or incorrect assumptions made by the model. The questionable results produced by chatbots has led to growing disquiet among users, developers and policy makers. The author argues that policy makers need to develop a systemic approach to address these concerns. The current piecemeal approach does not reflect the complexity of LLMs or the magnitude of the data upon which they are based, therefore, the author recommends incentivizing greater transparency and accountability around data-set development.
Topic:: Accountability, Transparency, Artificial Intelligence, Data Governance, and Large Language Models (LLMs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

202. Digital Governance: Technology Tensions with China and Implications

Author:: Alex He and Robert Fay
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: As a superpower that is deeply integrated in global supply chains, China is becoming an economic giant, but its use of technology to capture data using methods that may pose cyber- and national security risks is raising concerns. While some view China’s motivations as an attempt to advance its status from an upper-middle-income economy to a developed economy, others see more nefarious intentions behind its authoritarian, top-down governance model. Further complicating the situation is the growing technology competition between China, the United States and Europe over the control of data, the technologies that use this data and the values upon which they should be used. The Centre for International Governance Innovation’s second annual conference on Digital Governance in China explored these and other issues related to the global implications of China’s governance model in the digital age.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Governance, Economy, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China and Asia

203. New Logics for Governing Human Discourse in the Online Era

Author:: Richard Reisman
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The democratization of access to online media tools is driving a transformation of human discourse that is disrupting freedom of thought. This shift in the flow of thought is being encoded into a global infrastructure dominated by commercial platform companies whose operations co-opt individual, collective and governmental agency. In this policy brief, Richard Reisman argues that attempts to govern these tools are relying on “yesterday’s logic.” The new logic, largely unrecognized, relates to acceleration of word-of-mouth propagation, much like rumouring, putting the listener’s freedom of impression, rather than the speaker’s freedom of expression, at the fore. Reisman writes that governance is needed to restore individual and community agency, which could re-energize the vision of technology as “bicycles for our minds,” enabling individuals and society to flourish and maintain resilience in an increasingly challenging world.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, Internet, Emerging Technology, and Discourse
Political Geography:: Global Focus

204. Machine-Learning Theory and Its Policy Implications

Author:: Naod Abraham
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The goal of this paper is to present an intuitive summary of computational learning theory, and its application for analyzing the most popular learning algorithms in machine learning, neural networks. This paper assumes no mathematical background or knowledge of machine learning from the reader. Throughout the paper, the important sections are presented using a pyramid approach (that is, in three levels). After introducing each major idea/topic, its policy implications and connection to Canada’s law are discussed. Finally, a summary of Canada’s relevant artificial intelligence law, with a case example, is given.
Topic:: Artificial Intelligence, Digital Policy, Emerging Technology, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

205. Competing Ideas: Canada’s Competition Reform Conversation

Author:: Vass Bednar and Keldon Bester
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The Government of Canada’s recent review of and updates to the Competition Act have sparked a closer examination of how competition is protected and promoted in Canada. Competition affects all Canadians, especially in the face of rising costs of living and a shrinking number of competitors in key markets. Yet the laws that govern competition are not easily understood by average consumers, leaving them out of the public policy conversation. This paper looks at why better competition law is needed and examines previous reform efforts.
Topic:: Markets, Reform, Public Policy, and Competition
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

206. Breaking Barriers: The Link between Stronger IPRs and Trade in Services

Author:: Olena Ivus
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: As innovation becomes more prevalent and systematically integrated into service industries, service firms increasingly turn to intellectual property rights (IPRs) as a means of safeguarding their intellectual assets. The reliance on these legal rights becomes even more pronounced when service companies endeavour to expand their global reach and tap into international markets where the protection of IPRs is relatively weak, and imitation is more widespread. Disparities in the level of IPRs protection and enforcement across countries can pose significant barriers to cross-border trade and investment in service sectors where the safeguarding of intellectual property (IP) is fundamental. The risk of IP infringement and the limited protection afforded to patents, copyrights and trademarks in certain countries can discourage the expansion of businesses into these markets, limiting the overall growth and accessibility of services in those areas. This paper studies the relationship between trade in services and the strength of IPRs protection at the international level. More specifically, it uses data for 94 countries over the period of 1990–2010 to put forward new empirical evidence about the impact of global strengthening of IPRs protection on cross-border trade in services.
Topic:: Intellectual Property/Copyright, Investment, Trade, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

207. Beyond the Quasi-Alliance? An Analysis of the Japan-Australia Special Strategic Partnership

Author:: Daisuke Akimoto
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This article examines a pathway of the Japan-Australia “special strategic partnership” in recent years. Both countries have developed a special strategic partnership, referred to as a “quasi-alliance”. Hence, the purpose of this research is to contextualise the development of the Australia-Japan quasi-alliance from global, regional, and bilateral perspectives. Globally, the quasi-alliance has been influenced by power transition and hegemonic competition in global politics. Regionally, the quasi-alliance has been embedded into the trilateral and multilateral strategic frameworks in the Indo-Pacific. Bilaterally, the quasi-alliance has been shaped by the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation (JDSC). Nonetheless, close security ties were temporarily adrift over Australia’s submarine deal and realigned by tangible milestones, such as the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) and the new JDSC signed off in 2022. While investigating these footsteps of the quasialliance formation, this article considers whether both countries have moved beyond the quasi-alliance toward a full military alliance in the changing strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific region
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Quad Alliance, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and Australia

208. The Regional Security Complex Theory and Energy Triangle of EU-TurkeyRussia

Author:: Mehmet Ferhat Fırat
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This study explores the application of the regional security complex theory (RCST) to the energy relations between the European Union (EU), Russia, and Turkey. It underscores the critical role of energy security in shaping international relations and highlights the mutual interdependence among these actors in the energy issue. The study sheds light on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy security and emphasizes the need for diversification of energy sources to reduce dependency on Russian natural gas. Turkey's active and neutral policy with Russia has formed a security complex in energy relations among these three actors. The claim that shared concerns or threat perceptions among actors assumed by the regional security complex theory constitutes a security complex has been used within the framework of this study to justify the existence of an energy security complex between Turkey, Russia, and the EU. Furthermore, given its strategic geographical position and energy infrastructure projects, this research outlines Turkey's potential as a critical isolator actor and energy hub in the region. Overall, this study offers valuable insights into the complex dynamics of energy relations and the evolving regional energy security landscape in the EU-Russia-Turkey triangle.
Topic:: European Union, Regional Security, Energy Security, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Turkey

209. NATO PA's Role in Consolidating Article 2 of the Atlantic Alliance Treaty

Author:: Nuno Alberto Rodrigues Santos Loureiro
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Article 2 of the North Atlantic Treaty, also known as the Washington Treaty, stipulates that international relations between member states should be conducted peacefully and with mutual respect, based on free institutions, thus creating conditions of stability, security, and satisfaction within the Alliance. It also promotes the elimination of opposition factors about international economic policies, which, in turn, are based on a collaborative foundation. Despite this more peaceful premise, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is, above all, a collective defence alliance, and over its 74-year history, there have been no further commitments that would allow for more integration despite the shared common values that were at its inception. The Parliamentary Assembly of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO PA) is an Interparliamentary Organisation (IPO) that acts independently of the North Atlantic Alliance but brings together parliamentarians from its member states and associates. Although its resolutions are merely recommendatory and advisory in nature, they have provided crucial strategic input into NATO's action, allowing parliaments to properly reflect on the organization's interests and strategies in national debates.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

210. The Judgment of Climate Change on Food Availability in Nigeria

Author:: Olubunmi David Apeloko, Celestina Ekene Chukwudi, Fadeke Esther Olu-Owolabi, and Samuel Ezennia
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Climate change is a global phenomenon that has significant implications for food security, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria. This study is set to explore the nature of the relationship between climate change and food security and the various ways to address the impact of climate change on food availability in Ogun State, Nigeria. Relying on the green theory, this study investigated climate change's impact on the agricultural sector, compromising food security in Ogun State, Nigeria. This study's qualitative data collection methods include primary and secondary data sources. This study adopted the exploratory research design. Interviews were used to gather primary data, and existing literature was used to collate secondary data. This work covered the staff of the Ministry of Agriculture in the selected state, lecturers in the Department of Economics, Covenant University, and the faculty of agriculture at Obafemi Awolowo University. The thematic content analysis was adopted in analyzing the data in this study. The findings from the data revealed that there is a clear relationship between climate change and food security. It also revealed that climate change has a negative impact on food availability in Ogun State, Nigeria. In addition, strategies and policies put in place to address the issues of climate change and food security were discussed. It was concluded that climate change has affected Ogun State's food security between 2019 and 2023.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

211. State Intervention in the Public and Private Spheres in Times of Crisis: Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:: Dilber Akbaba
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Especially in times of crisis, states can influence the public and private spheres by relying on their legitimacy power. Aside from its emergence and importance for humanity, the state reshapes individuals' private and public spheres by influencing them. The reshaped public and private spheres undoubtedly require a new perspective. Whether these areas have changed, the fate of their boundaries and the approach of individuals and the state to these areas may differ between ordinary and extraordinary periods. In the emergence of differences, the current understanding of governance is as important as how the state perceives its people and how the people perceive the state. Because these perceptions affect the parties' expectations in ordinary and crisis periods, criticism or acceptance develops due to the actual practices. In this article, the Covid-19 pandemic has been defined as a crisis period, and the Republic of Türkiye has been chosen as the subject whose policies implemented during the crisis period have been observed. The study examines the state's authority to intervene in the public and private sphere boundaries during the Covid-19 pandemic and the changes in these boundaries. Within the scope of the article, the study carried out in this direction examines how the edges of the public and private spheres were affected by the state's interventions/practices/policies during the Covid-19 crisis.
Topic:: Crisis Management, COVID-19, Public Space, Private Space, and State Intervention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

212. Defining Peace: A content analysis of Brazil's, China's, and the European Union's discourses on the Ukraine War

Author:: Luis Gouveia Junior
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many political leaders have vowed to settle this conflict. Although Brazil, China, and the European Union were among these voices, some have accused these international actors of propelling the war. This study offers a content analysis of the speeches proffered by Lula da Silva, Ursula Von der Leyen, and Xi Jinping, the political leaders of these three actors. This analysis concluded that Ursula Von der Leyen mentions peace fewer times, accounts solely for Russia’s responsibility for the war, and presents a perspective akin to International Relations neoliberal theory. Meanwhile, Lula da Silva provides some views closer to Johan Galtung’s theories. Nevertheless, the Brazilian president does not clearly explain the beginning of the war, affirming that negotiation is the pathway to peace. Finally, Xi Jinping stresses his Global Security Initiative and avoids calling “war” what is happening in Ukraine.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Peace, Russia-Ukraine War, and Discourse Analysis
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Brazil

213. How the International Investment Law Regime Undermines Access to Justice for Investment-Affected Stakeholders

Author:: Ladan Mehranvar
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: For over a decade now, the international investment law regime, which includes investment treaties and their central pillar, the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism, has been facing sustained calls for reform. These have largely centered on the concerns regarding the high costs of ISDS, the restrictions placed by the investment treaty regime on the right—or duty—of states to regulate in the public interest, and the questionable benefits arising from these treaties in the first place. Several states have taken proactive measures: some have revised investment treaty standards to better protect their regulatory powers;1 others have introduced new approaches to investment promotion, protection, and dispute settlement that more closely align with their sustainable development objectives;2 and some states have withdrawn from the investment treaty regime altogether.3 In addition, reforms to the regime are taking place at the multilateral level within the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL),4 the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),5 the World Trade Organization (WTO),6 and through other regional fora.7 Despite being the subject of extensive and prolonged public debate for several years, these reforms have continued to reinforce the binary structure of the regime. This structure restricts the focus of investment relations solely to investors and host states, disregarding the actual or potential impacts of investment projects, relations, disputes and awards on the rights and interests of other impacted stakeholders. In particular, large-scale, land-based investment projects involve a broad network of people and relations, and often intersect with local communities whose social identity, way of life, and livelihoods are intimately connected to the land and natural resources at stake.8 It is this category of investments, which result in the creation of a new “project” with a large land footprint, that is the topic of this paper. The consequences of these types of investments can be significant, as they often lead to land expropriations, negative human health consequences, water pollution, air contamination, deforestation, or shifts in migration patterns within the area,9 thereby impacting the rights and interests of people in these communities and the environment more broadly. From the perspective of investment-affected communities,10 foreign investments arise out of a partnership between the investor and the state.11 After all, it is the government that facilitates the establishment and development of these very projects. Meanwhile, these impacted people are often not consulted or involved in project establishment or development, and many may not even know that a project has been approved until after it has been approved or once it is operational. According to scholarship in this area,12 these affected individuals and communities often find themselves in a situation where they must assert their rights against the negative impacts of such projects, or resist these projects by mobilizing, protesting, or resorting to legal (and non-legal) measures against the investor and/or the state. This dynamic is frequently reflected in investment disputes, in which foreign investors challenge measures that state agencies have taken in response to, inter alia, local opposition to investments, in an attempt to safeguard their economic interests.13 However, even though the underlying investments, government measures, ISDS disputes, and any resulting awards often implicate local people and communities in profound ways, these stakeholders find it difficult, if not impossible, to assert their rights and have their concerns addressed in investment policy making, in the establishment or continuation of investment projects, and in any ensuing investor-state disputes that may arise under investment treaties (or investment contracts). In fact, the voices of investment-affected people are effectively, and in most cases, actually excluded from the “institutional logic” of the investment treaty regime.14 This is because of the narrow scope of the applicable treaties and the limited consideration given to human rights and domestic legal frameworks in ISDS proceedings. In addition, these communities often encounter legal and practical obstacles when seeking to protect their rights and interests under other instruments and fora, like international human rights law, or domestic and regional judicial systems. This is because victories won by investment-affected communities at these other fora are often pyrrhic since they may ultimately be undermined by the investment treaty regime if or when the investor succeeds in its ISDS claim. It is this local dimension, which has received little attention in public debate and action on reform at the global, regional, and national levels, that is the focus of this paper. We draw on a group of 13 investor-state claims (and two potential claims)15 that relate to the rights and interests of impacted communities and identify ways in which their access to justice is undermined, hampered or denied entirely by the ISDS mechanism.16 Before describing the ways that access to justice is undermined or denied in these ISDS cases, we first define the term “access to justice” below.
Topic:: Human Rights, Law, Investment, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:: Global Focus

214. Harms from Concentrated Industries: A Primer

Author:: Denise Hearn
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Clashes between dominant firms exercising private power across the economy, and regulatory agencies tasked with preserving democracy have oscillated in ferocity throughout history. Today there is widespread recognition that in many markets, concentrated private economic and political power has yielded a range of anti-democratic, anti-innovation, and inequitable outcomes for consumers, workers, and smaller businesses. A vast literature1 now documents the macroeconomic and social harms from concentrated markets. As a 2019 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report states, “further increases in the market power of already-powerful firms could weaken investment, deter innovation, reduce labor income shares, and make it more difficult for monetary policy to stabilize output.”2 Competition policy, or antitrust, is a subset of a broader anti-monopoly agenda, and an important foundation for the functioning of fair markets. How its laws are crafted, interpreted, and enforced has substantial economic and social effects at local and regional levels, as well as national and international levels. The way that competition policy is written, interpreted, and applied has wider societal impacts beyond competition, including effects on democracy, economic inequality, growth and innovation, racial and gender imbalances, privacy, geopolitical implications and more. Competition policy also has redistributive economic effects between stakeholders, often privileging the largest corporate actors and their shareholders at the expense of other stakeholders.3 As the largest global firms have grown in size and reach, many national jurisdictions have set up competition authorities. In the last four decades, more than 120 legal systems have created competition rules, establishing National Competition Authorities (NCA) across a significant portion of countries.4 However, competition policy includes, but is not limited to, antitrust enforcement. It can also include a broader set of legislative and regulatory reforms which provide market guardrails that protect consumers, workers, independent businesses, and fair market dealing.5 The recently introduced Digital Markets Act in the EU is an example of competition policy using additional regulatory layers to protect the rights of consumers, start ups, and to spur innovation and economic growth. Today, competition policy and antitrust law are experiencing new political potency as various global jurisdictions have strengthened and enhanced their enforcement regimes.6 New market realities like digital market platform gatekeepers, the financialization of firms, the rise of private equity, resurgent labor movements, trade wars and industrial policy, and sustainability challenges, among others, have forced reconsiderations of how to adapt competition policy to meet new 21st century market realities. Competition policy’s narrow focus on consumer welfare (typically defined as low prices)7 over the last 40-50 years saw technological giants ascend to new heights with little to no scrutiny or challenges to mergers. A focus on lowering prices for consumers meant that new assetization strategies – such as monetizing a user’s attention while offering “free” products – went ungoverned by competition regulators. Non-price effects from concentrated markets like: threats to democracy or privacy, and effects on worker’s rights or the environment were mostly ignored. Mergers largely went unchallenged, leading to concentration across many sectors of the economy which is well documented in the US,8 Canada,9 and Europe10 and increasingly so in other jurisdictions. As so-called “superstar firms” have come to dominate national and global economies – in part due to a lack of strong countervailing regulatory structures and antitrust enforcement, and in part due to new network effects or economies of scale and scope in financial, digital, and other markets – many large companies are now akin to para-state institutions, which set the terms and norms of markets, acting as de facto private regulators. Global collective action problems like inequality, climate change, and biodiversity loss, which threaten the ecological and social thresholds upon which open societies are built, have also challenged the status quo of competition policy interpretation and enforcement. This presents a moment of political opportunity for a new vision, which asserts a concerted challenge to the ways in which concentrated corporate power undermines healthy economic, political, and social functioning across a range of industries. An anti-monopoly policy agenda ensures that markets operate on fair and competitive terms, that they reward innovation, create widely shared ownership and prosperity, and allow the best ideas, products, and services to flourish. Markets are public creations, governed by democratically determined rules. Anyone can be an anti-monopolist and participate in the active governance and shaping of markets, and there is now a wide global community of people who identify as such. At the end of this document we list some civil society organizations that are working to foreground anti-monopoly policy approaches and to build communities of practice, for those interested in learning more. Below, some of the harms from market concentration are outlined, as well as industryspecific or thematic considerations in technology, agriculture, and trade.
Topic:: Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Business, and Industry
Political Geography:: Global Focus

215. Billion-Dollar Exposure: Investor-State Dispute Settlement in Mozambique’s Fossil Fuel Sector

Author:: Lea Di Salvatore and Maria Julia Gubeissi
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Mozambique is endowed with extensive untapped natural resources, particularly gas and coal. The country’s gamble on fossil fuel-based economic growth comes with signiicant economic risks and crowds out investments in the country’s enormous renewable energy potential. ◆Mozambique faces a substantial economic risk due to its exposure to investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) claims by foreign investors in its coal, oil, and gas sectors. The investment protections in the country’s international investment agreements and contracts, combined with ISDS, expose Mozambique to multi-billion-dollar financial liabilities. Even conservative estimations show that potential ISDS liabilities from oil and gas projects would cover almost a decade of Mozambique’s government expenditures for SDGs. ◆ Mozambique’s international investment agreements and publicly available oil, gas, and coal contracts allow foreign investors to bypass the national judicial system and bring multi-billion-dollar ISDS claims against Mozambique. Such claims can result in significant costs for the country, and they also have a considerable chilling effect on any new public-interest regulation in areas such as health, environment, community rights or labor protections. ISDS can undermine attempts to adopt meaningul legislation to transition away from fossil fuels and achieve sustainable development goals. This regime can therefore contribute to locking the country into a high-carbon economy. ◆In addition, multiple stabilization clauses in the analyzed contracts lock the operations into specific legal and fiscal regimes for the duration of the contracts. Stabilization clauses protect investments from unexpected regulatory changes or new fiscal rules. If a host state does introduce such changes, stabilization clauses allow investors to demand measures or compensation that would ensure their same profitability absent such changes. These clauses thus exacerbate the limits to – and chilling effect on – states’ public interest regulation. ◆Mozambique and other countries can take actions to remove ISDS from their contracts and treaties, replacing the mechanism with alternative dispute resolution mechanisms. They can also take steps to terminate investment agreements in force. Home countries of Mozambique’s foreign investors have a responsibility to support such action, especially as they, themselves, remove ISDS from their own treaties.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Gas, Investment, Fossil Fuels, Coal, and Disputes
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

216. Pakistan’s Evolving Militant Landscape: State Responses and Policy options

Author:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Muhammad Amir Rana, and Safdar Sial
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: At a time when a major shift is happening in the militant landscape of the country and a political transition is taking place, it is imperative to reevaluate the evolving positions and strategies of not only the militant groups but also the newly formed governments. Against this backdrop, this report seeks to delve into the emerging dynamics of Pakistan's militant landscape and security besides analysing state capacities and responses, along with potential policy shifts post-transition. While much of the research and analyses in Pakistan since Taliban takeover of Kabul has predominantly focused on aspects such as the Taliban regime's governance, Pak-Afghan bilateral affairs, and regional geopolitics, there remains a glaring absence of credible and comprehensive investigations into the broader repercussions of the evolving Afghan scenario on Pakistan's security landscape. Despite periodic headlines on the Pakistani government's negotiations with the proscribed TTP, there has been a dearth of empirical research exploring the overall fallout of Afghanistan's changing dynamics on Pakistan's security. In light of this context, PIPS undertook a firsthand, empirical investigation into the expanding terrorism landscape in the country, scrutinizing the formation of new alliances and networks among terrorist groups, mapping the geographical spread of insecurity and violence, and assessing their ramifications for both domestic and regional security paradigms, among other things. The insights gleaned from this investigation were subsequently utilized to formulate context-specific policy recommendations on how to manage or prevent the negative fallout from evolving Afghanistan situation on Pakistan and the region.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Minorities, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

217. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation: Pakistan's Interests and Policy Options 12

Author:: Osama Ahmad, Imran Mukhtar, and Hazrat Bilal
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: The Pak Institute for Peace Studies held its 12th quarterly consultation on “Afghan peace and reconciliation: Pakistan’s interests and policy options” in Islamabad on March 15, 2024. The consultation focused on two main themes: “Pakistan’s Afghan policy puzzle: challenges and opportunities for the new government” and “The counterterrorism and counter-extremism challenges for the new federal and provincial governments.” Participants included lawmakers from national and provincial assemblies, diplomats, retired miltary officials, academics, journalists, policy analysts, and experts on Afghan affairs. The distinguished speakers talked about the policy challenges confronting the new government. They were particularly skeptical about the new government’s ability to formulate the country’s Afghan policy, and were worried about surging terrorism in the country, India's increasing influence in Afghanistan, province-center worsening relations, and Pakistan’s deteriorating relations with the neighboring countries. In the first session, the discussion revolved around how the newly formed coalition government will address critical issues such as countering terrorism and improving relations with Afghanistan and other neighboring countries. The need for a solution to Balochistan problem was highlighted. Apart from that, various factors leading to worsening relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan were discussed, for instance the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) factor, deportation of Afghan refugees, border insecurity, and cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan. The participants also linked the success of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to peace in the region. Pakistan's failure to extend goodwill into Afghanistan was termed a significant problem. It was argued that Pakistan's forceful expulsion of Afghan refugees significantly eroded Pakistan's good image in Afghanistan. The participants urged the government to take political ownership of foreign and internal policies and strengthen the role of parliament in order to set things right both at home and abroad. However, they lamented the inability of the political government to assert itself, thereby allowing space to non-democratic forces to decide unilaterally on critical matters. In the second session, the consultation focused on the counterterrorism policies in the center and provinces. The prevailing antagonistic relations between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf’s (PTI) government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and the coalition government in Islamabad were thought to prevent the formation of an effective counterterrorism policy. Speakers also highlighted how India is exploiting the situation by funneling funds to the TPP through Afghanistan, which has led to a significant surge in the terrorist activities in Pakistan. Improving trade relations with Afghanistan also came under the discussion, and it was advised to reduce hurdles in bilateral trade which will benefit not only Afghanistan but Pakistan as well. It was also highlighted that although there is peace in a political sense in Afghanistan, poverty and economic decay have increased during the Taliban government. In the last minutes of the discussion, it was underscored that the Afghan Taliban deliberately designate Pakistan as their enemy and capitalize on this rhetoric to divert the attention of Afghans away from the system they are implementing, which might lead to further destitution.
Topic:: Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, Refugees, Reconciliation, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

218. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation: Pakistan's Interests and Policy Options 11

Author:: Osama Ahmad, Imran Mukhtar, and Hina Saleem
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: This report is outcome of the 11th PIPS-led structured consultation out of a series of twelve such events that have been designed to discuss and critically evaluate evolving aspects of Afghan conflict and political reconciliation and suggest policy options and strategies to the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan. To that end, PIPS has established a network of credible resource persons including former diplomats, academicians, government officials, and representatives of political and religious parties, security and law enforcement agencies, civil society, and media, as well as those living at the border including Afghan refugees. The underlying goal is to support Afghan peace and reconciliation and tackle its trickle-down effect for Pakistan including in terms of militancy and insecurity, among other things.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Refugees, Conflict, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

219. Episode 7: The Racial Muslim

Author:: Sahar Aziz and Deborah Amos
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Religious bigotry in the U.S. racializes Muslims and Arabs – particularly those in immigrant communities. This week’s episode tackles an ongoing trend where racism quashes religious freedom. Host Sahar Aziz and longtime war correspondent and Princeton journalism Professor Deborah Amos discuss the groundbreaking phenomenon of “The Racial Muslim: When Racism Quashes Religious Freedom” through an historical and comparative approach that demonstrates how race and religion intersect.
Topic:: Islam, Race, Religion, Immigrants, and Freedom of Religion
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

220. Legacies of the Vietnam War - Napalm Girl: After the Dragons Left

Author:: Phan Thi Kim Phuc, Nick Ut, Fox Butterfield, and Tony Bui
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: A discussion featuring Kim Phuc, the focal point of one of the most iconic photographs of the 20th century, captured on June 8, 1972, in Trang Bang, Vietnam. On this day, a napalm attack led to a moment frozen in time by photographer Nick Ut, showcasing the tragic human cost of war. Together with Kim Phuc, we will explore the enduring legacy and significance of this photograph, examining its impact on public perception of war, its role in shaping anti-war movements, and its continued relevance in today's global discourse on peace and reconciliation. The panel will give different perspectives on the power of imagery in historical memory and the journey of healing and advocacy that followed one of history's most turbulent periods.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Media, Conflict, Vietnam War, and Photojournalism
Political Geography:: Vietnam and Southeast Asia

221. Legacies of the Vietnam War - Scars of War in Indochina

Author:: George Black, Elizabeth Becker, Sera Koulabdara, and Peter Osnos
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: What are the impacts and lasting effects of the bombardments of Agent Orange, napalm, and other explosive ordnance on Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam? How has this affected the country and its people? What can we learn from what has happened and how do we move forward from here? In this panel, we get perspectives from leaders who have insider knowledge on the legacies of war.
Topic:: Vietnam War, Post-Conflict, Napalm, and Agent Orange
Political Geography:: Vietnam, Cambodia, Southeast Asia, and Laos

222. Legacies of the Vietnam War - War Reporting: Lessons from Vietnam

Author:: Peter Arnett, Fox Butterfield, Edith Lederer, Nancy Trieu Giang Bui, Lien-Hang T. Nguyen, and James Bennet
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: How did the harsh reality of the Vietnam War change war reporting, and how did these changes affect reporting for generations to come? What lessons in Vietnam remain relevant in today's war coverage? This panel features renowned Vietnam War journalists Peter Arnett, Fox Butterfield, Edith Lederer, and Nancy Trieu Giang Bui, as they explore the evolution of war reporting from the Vietnam War to contemporary conflicts. Through their firsthand experiences, the panelists will discuss the challenges, ethical dilemmas, and transformative lessons learned in the field. This discussion hopes to shed light on the significant impact of journalism in times of war and how historical insights can guide today's war correspondents.
Topic:: Media, Ethics, Conflict, Journalism, and Vietnam War
Political Geography:: Vietnam and Southeast Asia

223. Korea: A New History of South and North – A Book Talk by Victor Cha and Ramon Pacheco Pardo

Author:: Victor D. Cha, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, and Jonathan Corrado
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Victor Cha and Ramon Pacheco Pardo will talk about their new book, Korea: A New History of South and North, which charts the balance of power politics that ravaged Korea in the late 19th-early 20th centuries, the division of the two Koreas and their divergent paths thereafter. The book also includes original data on unification and how the great powers view a future single Korea.
Topic:: History, Power Politics, Conflict, Unification, and Book Talk
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

224. Mainline Islam: Islamic Associational Life in Indonesia

Author:: Kevin W. Fogg and Sidney Jone
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Indonesian Islam has a unique structure in its associational life, in the form of mass Islamic organizations. The most well-known of these, NU and Muhammadiyah, are frequently heralded by politicians and scholars as pillars of religious life and civil society in Indonesia, but there are many similar organizations that function on a provincial or regional level in a similar capacity. This project draws in a comparative study of three regional mass Islamic organizations—Jamiyatul Washliyah founded in Medan, Nahdlatul Ulama based on Lombok, and Alkhairaat headquartered in Palu—to draw broader conclusions about the nature of Islamic associational life in Indonesia, how Indonesian organizations differ from Islamic groups in other countries, and how Islamic organizations in Indonesia have changed over the last century. The project also uses a comparison with American Protestantism, the so-called “Mainline Protestant Denominations,” to articulate a category of organization that is normative in Indonesia but unknown elsewhere in the Islamic world: “mainline” Islamic organizations.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Domestic Politics, and Religious Organizations
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

225. Is Guanxi Changing? Referral Hiring and Social Networks in China

Author:: Elena Obukhova and Yao Lu
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: What is the role of guanxi in China today? To answer this question, Professor Elena Obukhova examines the relationship between social networks and referral hiring. In the first study, she compares China and the US. In the second study, she explores differences between China’s provinces. This event is part of the 2023-2024 lecture series on “Labor Market Transformations in China" and is hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by Columbia's China Center for Social Policy.
Topic:: Markets, Labor Issues, Social Networks, and Hiring
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

226. Wuhan: How the COVID-19 Outbreak in China Spiraled Out of Control

Author:: Dali Yang, Qin Gao, Junyan Jiang, and Xiaobo Lü
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: The Covid-19 pandemic, which began as an outbreak in Wuhan in late 2019, has claimed millions of lives and caused unprecedented disruptions. Despite its generation-defining significance, there has been a surprising lack of independent research examining the decisions and measures implemented in the weeks leading up to the Wuhan lockdown, as well as the missteps and shortcomings that allowed the novel coronavirus to spread with minimal hindrance. In this book talk, Wuhan: How the COVID-19 Outbreak in China Spiraled Out of Control, Dali L. Yang scrutinizes China's emergency response to the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan, delving into the government's handling of epidemic information and the decisions that influenced the scale and scope of the outbreak. Yang's research reveals that China's health decision-makers and experts had an excellent head start when they implemented a health emergency action program to respond to the outbreak at the end of December 2019. With granular detail and compelling immediacy, Yang investigates the political and bureaucratic processes that hindered information flows and sharing, as well as the cognitive framework that limited understanding of the virus's contagiousness and hampered effective decisions and enabled the outbreak to spiral out of control.
Topic:: Government, Crisis Management, Bureaucracy, COVID-19, Decision-Making, Zero-COVID, and Emergencies
Political Geography:: China and Asia

227. China and Latin America: A New Assessment

Author:: Parsifal D'Sola Alvarado and Xiaobo Lü
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Parsifal D'Sola, a MARSEA alum, will deliver a presentation offering a general overview of the current state and prospective trends in China-Latin America relations. The talk will explore the evolving interactions and strategic dynamics between China and Latin American countries, highlighting developments over the past two decades. Key areas of discussion include the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative in Latin America and the peripheral effects of US-China tensions on the region. An important aspect of the presentation will be examining the diverse perceptions of China across Latin American countries and how these views influence bilateral relations and policy decisions. D'Sola will also share his thoughts on future trends, offering a broad perspective on the likely course of China's engagement with Latin America in the coming years. Speaker's Bio: Parsifal D’Sola is the founder and executive director of the Andres Bello Foundation – China Latin America Research Center in Bogota, Colombia. He is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. Parsifal is a Chinese foreign policy analyst specializing in Sino-Latin American relations with a focus on Venezuela. Between 2019 and 2020, he acted as Chinese foreign policy advisor to the Foreign Affairs Minister of the Interim Government of Venezuela. He holds a BS in Telecommunications Engineering from Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, an MA in East Asian Studies from Columbia University, an MSc in International Politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies, London University, and an advance language diploma from Beijing Language and Culture University.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Latin America

228. The White Crane of Alagśa: Legends of the Sixth Dalai Lama in Mongolia

Author:: Sangseraima Ujeed and Gray Tuttle
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: The Sixth Dalai Lama Tsangyang Gyatso (1683-1706/46) was recognized in secrecy, lived in controversy, and passed out of history in mystery. The popular tradition holds that he died whilst travelling to Beijing. Yet in some parts of Mongolia, it is believed that the exiled Sixth Dalai Lama escaped his captors and lived out his life in the dessert Gobi region of Alagśa, Inner Mongolia. To this day in Alagśa, the figure of the Sixth Dalai Lama still serves as a central pillar of the Alagśan identity, religion, and cultural pride among the local Mongolian population. Based on new materials in the form of oral histories, local legends, folk songs, poems, and textual sources which I collected about the Sixth Dalai Lama and the reincarnation of the Desi Sanggye Gyatso in Alagśa during a research trip in 2019, this paper will explore the formation of religio-cultural identity and the invention of tradition in the Alagśa during the early eighteenth century. This is not a paper that tries to solve the mystery of Tsangyang Gyatso’s death, but rather, one that explores the role Tsangyang Gyatso played for the Alagśa Mongols in creating narratives of identity and their realm Alagśa as an authentic Buddhist central place. This is a story of how Tsangyang Gyatso, his identities, and his interpersonal relationships were reborn in Alagśa and the role he played in consolidating Alagśa’s place within the wider geopolitical spheres of the cosmopolitan Buddhist world that spanned the Himalayas, Inner Asia, and the Qing.
Topic:: Religion, History, Geopolitics, Identity, Tradition, Dalai Lama, and Reincarnation
Political Geography:: China, Mongolia, and Asia

229. Japan’s Strategic Cooperation with NATO: Connectivity between Ukraine and Taiwan Crises

Author:: Tomonori Yoshizaki and Ayumi Teraoka
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: China’s global outreach and the War in Ukraine have pushed U.S. allies in Asia and Europe closer in recent years. Professor Tomonori Yoshizaki of Tokyo University of Foreign Studies (TUFS), former Vice President of the National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS) of the Japanese Ministry of Defense, will help us understand the motivations behind the developing ties between Japan and NATO. He will explore the prospects of their cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and beyond and conclude by offering implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Alliance, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

230. Freedom Undone: The Assault on Liberal Values and Institutions in Hong Kong

Author:: Michael Davis and Junyan Jiang
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: A lot has been written about the 2019 protests in Hong Kong and the aggressive police crackdown offered in response. Much less has been written about the more severe assault on liberal values and institutions that followed. In his new book Professor Davis takes a forensic look at both the growing Beijing intervention in Hong Kong affairs from the handover forward and its culmination in the more severe crackdown that followed the 2019 protest, the 2020 passage of the National Security Law, and the 2021 Beijing imposition of a patriots-only electoral system. This talk will highlight the comprehensive impact of these developments on Hong Kong’s rule of law, its criminal justice system, and the many freedoms for which the vibrant city was long known—often previously ranking among the highest in the world. The diminution of basic freedoms has touched nearly all sectors of society, including education, the media, public broadcasting, civil society organizations, legal services, and so on. The city long known for a vibrant public debate, its vigorous media landscape, and some of the largest non-violent protests in the world has gone silent. The sheer comprehensiveness of this imposition raises questions not only for Hong Kong but for liberal democratic values globally, as autocratic regimes such as the PRC seek to advance their illiberal agenda.
Topic:: Protests, Institutions, Liberalism, and Autocracy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Hong Kong

231. Outsourcing Repression: Everyday State Power in Contemporary China

Author:: Lynette Ong and Junyan Jiang
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: How do states coerce citizens into compliance while simultaneously minimizing backlash? In Outsourcing Repression, Lynette Ong examines how the Chinese state engages nonstate actors, from violent street gangsters to nonviolent grassroots brokers, to coerce and mobilize the masses to pursue its ambitious urbanization project. She draws on ethnographic research conducted annually from 2011 to 2019--the years from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping, a unique and original event dataset, and a collection of government regulations in a study of everyday land grabs and housing demolition in China. Theorizing a counterintuitive form of repression that reduces resistance and backlash, Ong invites the reader to reimagine the new ground state power credibly occupies. Everyday state power is quotidian power acquired through society by penetrating nonstate territories and mobilizing the masses within. After the book’s publication, Lynette has extended the arguments to explain the success, failure, and implications of China’s Zero-Covid Policy in the Journal of Democracy, Foreign Affairs and the Economist etc. Outsourcing Repression has won the American Sociology Association’s Distinguished Contribution to Scholarship in Political Sociology, and the Human Rights Best Book Awards from the American Political Science Association, the American Sociological Association, and the International Studies Association.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Governance, State, Coercion, Zero-COVID, and State Power
Political Geography:: China and Asia

232. What Future Awaits Pakistani-Afghan Relations?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The ruling Taliban in Afghanistan rejected, on May 12, 2024, a scheduled visit from a Pakistani military delegation to the Afghan city of Kandahar, the headquarters of Taliban leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada. The visit aimed to discuss border management and the Pakistani branch of the Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan, TTP). The cancellation of the visit followed Islamabad's drone and missile attacks on Paktika province in southeastern Afghanistan. Earlier, on March 18, 2024, Pakistani forces carried out airstrikes on the Afghan provinces of Khost and Paktika in response to a deadly attack by the Tehreek-e-Taliban's security forces in North Waziristan. This indicates the ongoing tension marring relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in August 2021.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Taliban, and Borders
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

233. Could the Territorial Dispute Ignite Conflict Between Venezuela and Guyana?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On May 5, 2024, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced the presence of US military and intelligence bases in the Essequibo region, a disputed territory between Venezuela and Guyana. This announcement marks a new escalation in the ongoing dispute over the region, which has gained significant importance following recent major oil discoveries.
Topic:: Security, Oil, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, Guyana, and Essequibo

234. Motives for the Resurgence of the Sadrist Movement in Iraq

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Sadrist Movement has recently increased its activities throughout Iraq, hinting at a possible return to the country's political landscape. This development follows the movement's vow to boycott the political process in July 2022.
Topic:: Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Muqtada al-Sadr
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

235. How does the attempted assassination of Trump affect the American political landscape?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On July 13, 2024, former U.S. President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump faced an assassination attempt during an election rally in Pennsylvania. This incident occurred just days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Trump is anticipated to be officially nominated as the party’s candidate for the November elections. The attempt resulted in Trump being grazed by a bullet on his ear. Following the incident, he posted on his "Truth Social" platform: "A bullet grazed the upper part of my right ear." The Secret Service announced in a statement that one attendee was killed, two others were critically injured, and the assassin was also killed. It is important to note that this is not the first instance of a failed assassination attempt on Trump. Each attempt came perilously close to succeeding, but the assailants were thwarted at the last moment.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Assassination
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

236. Why has the Global Demand for Uranium Increased Recently?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: As the world transitions to electricity to combat climate change, nuclear energy is poised to become an increasingly vital component of the global energy mix. New nuclear power projects have recently reached unprecedented levels, with more than 20 countries pledging to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050. China alone plans to construct at least 150 new reactors in the next 15 years, investing over USD 440 billion. India has also announced ambitious plans to increase its nuclear capacity from 6,780 megawatts to 22,480 megawatts by 2031. This surge in nuclear energy development persists despite several factors complicating the rise of uranium as a coveted metal. Chief among these are: the significant and steady decline in investment in uranium exploration and mine development over the past decade, particularly following the Fukushima incident in 2011; governments' focus on solar and wind energy; and the recent Western sanctions imposed on Russia, which have complicated the process of importing Russian uranium (especially with a complete ban on imports to the United States). Additionally, high inflation and interest rates have led to increased costs for new and existing uranium mining projects. Furthermore, conflicts in Niger have resulted in the loss of 5% of the world's uranium supply, representing more than 24% of the European Union's uranium imports.
Topic:: Climate Change, Uranium, Nuclear Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

237. Analyzing How the Tools of the British Far-Right Have Evolved

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Since July 30, 2024, several British cities and towns have been gripped by a wave of far-right violence described as the worst since World War II. This outbreak followed the killing of three girls in a knife attack at a children's party in Southport, northwest Britain. The violence involved a series of criminal and inflammatory actions in what appear to be coordinated efforts to thwart immigration and intimidate minorities in Britain. This reflects the British far-right's ability to utilize and even evolve its traditional tools to adapt to the current context and available resources.
Topic:: Immigration, Violence, Far Right, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

238. What are the Potential Consequences of the Current Crisis in Bangladesh?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The sudden collapse of Sheikh Hasina's government after 15 years in power has left a dangerous void in Bangladesh, a nation of 170 million people. The long-standing Prime Minister resigned following violent demonstrations and fled to neighboring India after protesters stormed her official residence. The situation on the ground has become volatile amidst the power vacuum. The military has since appointed a caretaker government led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus, who was previously considered an opponent by Hasina's Awami League government and was accused of corruption. The conviction, however, was overturned by the court following the collapse of the Awami League's rule and Hasina's escape. The key question now is whether the military will play a role in the country's future or if Yunus, in collaboration with the nascent student movement, can tackle the political, economic, and regional challenges facing Bangladesh—especially since the economist has announced his intention to call for general elections after a period of "stability."
Topic:: Economy, Domestic Politics, Protests, Crisis Management, Civil Unrest, Military, and Sheikh Hasina
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

239. Outlook 2030 Brief: The U.S. and International Education

Author:: Allan E. Goodman and Mirka Martel
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: For over a century, the United States has been the leading destination for international students. Unlike higher education systems elsewhere, the U.S. maintains a decentralized public and private tertiary education system where international students may apply and enroll at the state, city, and local levels. This annual brief presents key trends in academic mobility to the United States, comparing annual findings to our projections, and suggestions for campus planning to accommodate the anticipated growth in international students.
Topic:: Education, Higher Education, Students, and International Exchange
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

240. Spring 2024 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange

Author:: Mirka Martel
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: The Spring 2024 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange continues the commitment of the Institute of International Education (IIE) to map the current state of international educational exchange to and from the United States. The report presents data from 662 U.S. higher education institutions in two sections: (1) current trends in international students studying at U.S. institutions in spring 2024 and recruitment patterns for prospective students and (2) the realities of U.S. study abroad ahead of academic year 2024/25.
Topic:: Education, Students, International Exchange, and Academic Exchange
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

241. China’s Responsibility, and Ours: The Persecution and Neglect of Stateless North Korean Children

Author:: Rob York, Hannah Cole, and Kaylin Kim
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: What happens to the children of North Korean women who are born in China? What happens when they remain in China, or when they escape to other countries? It is believed that as many as 300,000 North Koreans have fled the country—most of them since the famine of the 1990s, and most of them women. To address China’s “bare branches”—its much larger population of young men than young women—North Korean women are often sold to young Chinese men as brides. The children of these brides will be born stateless, lack legal rights, and face the ever-present danger of their mothers’ deportation back to North Korea because they are considered illegal immigrants in China. These unique challenges persist, despite China being a party to the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, among other international treaties. Even those children that eventually escape to third-party countries are haunted by their status, as their statelessness caused legal hindrances to their ability to settle and, specifically in South Korea, deprives them of government assistance. This study documents the treatment of “stateless” children born to North Korean and Chinese parents. It delineates the factors that contribute to their mistreatment—China’s unwillingness to anger the North Korean government, South Korea’s growing disinterest in North Korean defectors, and a lack of formal networks for North Korean defectors elsewhere. It further finds that, with China openly hostile toward “meddling” in its internal affairs, the most likely source of relief for these children will be a change in attitudes among South Koreans, the United States, and their allies and partners, resulting in conscious effort by their governments and civil societies to help them, both financially and in assisting with their assimilation.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Children, and Statelessness
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

242. Taiwan Strait’s Echo in Korean Peninsula Security and the US-ROK Alliance

Author:: Yerin Yoon
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: In recent years, the geopolitical landscape of East Asia has undergone significant shifts, with the Taiwan Strait emerging as a pivotal point of great power competition and regional instability. This paper delves into the intricate dynamics in this evolving scenario, examining the multifaceted implications of Taiwan contingencies and their ripple effects on the security of the Korean Peninsula and the longstanding US-ROK alliance. This study highlights the need for Korea to build strategic plans for a Taiwan contingency by examining the correlation between plausible scenarios and the security challenges of the Korean Peninsula. This paper explores the broader implications of a Taiwan contingency within the context of great power rivalry and international relations. Moreover, it analyzes specific scenarios related to the Korean Peninsula that could unfold around Taiwan, such as maritime blockades and potential Chinese armed attacks on Taiwanese territory. It then emphasizes the influence of these scenarios on the Korean Peninsula, revealing a complex web of economic security, diplomatic, and military challenges. The article thereafter turns its attention to the US-ROK alliance essential to regional security in East Asia. This analysis examines the strategic ramifications of the relocation of US Forces Korea (USFK) and the possible engagement of the ROK military to assess the potential responses by the US-ROK alliance to the Taiwan crisis. It also highlights how crucial it is to comprehend each of the points of view held by the US and the ROK, underscoring the complex intricacies of the alliance. Finally, the paper proposes strategic policy recommendations to enhance Korea’s role in regional security. This includes strategies for maritime security, military readiness against conventional threats, and the strengthening of trilateral relationships with the US and Japan, providing a proactive roadmap for Korea’s foreign and defense policy.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

243. Gender in Strategic Competition: A Non-Traditional Strategy for Building Resilience in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Charity Borg
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Today’s era is defined by strategic competition with “autocrats [who] are working overtime to undermine democracy and export a model of governance marked by repression at home and coercion abroad.”[1] The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the leading autocratic force, operating with both the intent to reshape the democratic rules-based international order and the resources to advance those aims. States interested in upholding the international rules-based order must enhance their ability to withstand PRC coercion and invest in cultivating a values-based security alliance against the spread of authoritarianism. International collaboration on the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda offers a low-cost, high-return opportunity to bolster national and regional resistance to authoritarian coercion while building a coalition of like-minded allies and partners. Increasing national resilience and building alliances that center on enhancing the security of women is a data-backed approach that ensures elevated state stability, democracy, and economic prosperity while increasing the likelihood of a coalition’s willingness to defend the current international rules-based order from those who seek to dismantle it. An overwhelming body of empirical analysis demonstrates a significant correlation between the security of women and the democratic or authoritarian tendencies of a state. That same analysis also finds that women’s security is a precondition for a state’s level of democracy. Otherwise stated, countries with higher levels of gender equality are more democratic, less corrupt, and more stable. Whereas “states with higher levels of violence against women are less peaceful [internally and] internationally, less compliant with international norms, and less likely to have good relations with neighboring states,” they are also more likely to align with autocratic governance structures.[1] Authoritarian states such as the PRC understand the benefits of empowered societies, which is why their actions on domestic and international fronts actively seek to suppress women. They fear that like-minded allies and partners will successfully improve security for fifty percent of the population and, as a result, will ultimately tip the scales of power and influence to preserve the values-based international order they desire to uproot. Interest and investment in the WPS agenda are growing around the globe, but not fast enough. Thus far, 18 Indo-Pacific states and one regional organization have sought meaningful engagement and integration of the WPS agenda by various means, opening a door for cooperation across the spectrum of civil, diplomatic, and military security cooperation engagements.[2] However, several transformative policy and operational measures must be implemented to achieve the desired end states. To be transformative and enable lasting change in governmental and national behavior, the thoughtful implementation of the WPS agenda at all levels, from national and subnational to the community and household, is required. First, domestic and international policymakers need to clearly define the security of women as a national security imperative. Second, implementing WPS in the defense sector should focus on training defense personnel to apply a gender perspective to enhance mission effectiveness. Last, those advancing WPS must take an inclusive, context-specific, and localized approach to its integration. To defend the current rules-based international order, like-minded countries must accelerate change and follow through by investing in women’s security.
Topic:: Security, Investment, Strategic Competition, Resilience, Gender, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

244. North Korea is Winning the Information War

Author:: Jonathan Corrado, Chelsie Alexandre, and Alexander Tufto
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The outside world has been presented with two contradictory images of North Korea’s younger generation. In the outside media, youth are portrayed as rebellious and radical, ignoring the Kim regime’s increasingly harsh crackdowns on foreign media and trends, and instead toting the latest South Korean fashion trends and adopting South Korean lingo. Meanwhile, state propaganda pushes the narrative that North Korean youth are extremely devoted to Kim Jong Un and the regime. Both conceptions of North Korea’s younger generation fail to acknowledge a more complex reality. Kim Jong Un understands the importance of winning over the younger generation to ensure his regime’s survival. Since coming into power, Kim has increased the severity of punishments for importing, distributing, and consuming foreign media. This strangled information environment amplifies the efficacy of a youth loyalty campaign designed to bear hug the younger generation. As a consequence, when compared with older cohorts, North Korean youth have a more favorable view of the regime, juche ideology, and Kim Jong Un himself. In short, the campaign is working. A reinvigorated foreign media distribution strategy is needed to break the impasse and win the battle over hearts and minds. Despite the dangers, North Koreans remain highly interested in foreign media. Research shows that those who consume tend to feel more fondly about South Korea and view the North Korean regime critically. Foreign media provides a powerful basis to cross check regime propaganda and can even lay the foundation for a shared understanding of concepts like human rights and civil society. A reinvigorated strategy should focus on content curation and innovative dissemination methods to maximize utility and minimize blowback for end users in North Korea.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

245. Enhancing the Cooperation between the US and Its Allies in the Mekong Subregion

Author:: Sach Nguyen
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The Mekong subregion is experiencing heightened geopolitical competition between the US and China, representing a clash between the international rules-based order and a China-led order. While the US and its allies advocate for the rules-based order, China’s intentions for its own order in the region are debated. China’s increased presence and influence in the Mekong subregion, particularly through upstream control of the Mekong water, reflect its pursuit of this order. In response, the US and its allies, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, have strengthened cooperation with one another to promote a rules-based system. Despite existing coordination, there is potential for further collaboration to enhance their role in mainland Southeast Asia. Stability and prosperity in the Mekong subregion are being challenged. Weakening international norms in governing transboundary waters threaten downstream countries’ security and livelihoods, exacerbated by climate change-induced droughts. China’s growing engagement in the region aims to establish its sphere of influence, primarily through economic development projects like dams and railways, raising concerns over environmental impacts and expanding Chinese influence. Additionally, non-traditional security threats such as the COVID-19 pandemic, cyber security, and human trafficking further complicate the region’s situation. The engagement of the US and its allies in the Mekong subregion is multifaceted, driven by various interests but united in countering China’s growing influence. The US, through initiatives like the Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI) and later the Mekong-US Partnership, seeks to maintain its relevance and preeminence in the region. Japan, South Korea, and Australia also engage with the subregion, for economic interests and to counterbalance China. Japan, for instance, aims to establish production bases and balance China’s influence through high-standard infrastructure projects. South Korea focuses on economic development and diversification of trade amid US-China tensions, while Australia prioritizes promoting a rules-based order and addressing non-traditional security threats. Despite differences in approach, the US and its allies collaborate through platforms like the Friends of the Mekong and initiatives such as the Trilateral Partnership for Infrastructure Investment in the Indo-Pacific, aimed at countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, challenges remain in realizing these initiatives, particularly in engaging the private sector and ensuring concrete outcomes amidst competing interests and complex negotiations. Recommendations for enhancing cooperation between the US and its allies in the Mekong subregion include strengthening international norms and rules, expanding economic infrastructure projects, focusing on non-traditional security issues, and fostering track 1.5 and track 2 diplomacy to promote mutual understanding and collaboration among all stakeholders, including governments, academia, businesses, and civil society organizations. These efforts, facilitated by the US and its allies, can contribute to a more stable and prosperous Mekong subregion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Geopolitics, International Order, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, United States of America, and Mekong River

246. New Caledonia and French Polynesia: New Opportunities Amid Great Power Competition

Author:: Raihaamana Tevahitua
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: New Caledonia and French Polynesia, like to other Oceanian nations, are gaining heightened significance within the Indo-Pacific framework. Consequently, both non-sovereign territories have improved leverage to assert their priorities in relation to the central French state. Simultaneously, they are increasingly engaging with foreign partners under the guidance of France. This paper offers recommendations for how these territories can expand their influence in this era of Great Power competition.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Geopolitics, and International Competition
Political Geography:: New Caledonia, Indo-Pacific, Oceania, and French Overseas Territories

247. A Subdued Environment and Missed Opportunities

Author:: Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Chinese diplomacy toward the Korean Peninsula in late 2023 sputtered forward, driven more by a calendar of bilateral anniversaries with North Korea and multilateral gatherings involving South Korea than any sense of strategic purpose. Both relationships seemed preoccupied with off-stage developments such as the September summit between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin and the momentum of US-Japan-South Korea trilateral relations, rather than any inherent dynamism of their own. Still, regular Sino-North Korean bilateral exchanges ahead of the 75th anniversary of the bilateral relationship and Sino-South Korean bilateral economic dialogues provide opportunities to overcome resistance and sustain progress in the face of deepening major power rivalries. Senior-level dialogues between China and North Korea occurred on North Korea’s 75th founding anniversary in September, with the visit of Chinese Vice Premier Liu Guozhong to Pyongyang, a visit that occurred against the backdrop of the second US-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group meeting, North Korea’s first successful indigenous satellite launch, and North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Pak Myong Ho’s visit to Beijing. Meanwhile, ministerial and working-level economic dialogues on issues such as supply-chain stability, export controls, and trade facilitation continued between China and South Korea, punctuated by a notable bilateral exchange between Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo in late September on the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou. But these exchanges did not generate the traction necessary for South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to have substantive bilateral meetings with President Xi on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in San Francisco in November. Bilateral and trilateral foreign ministerial meetings in Busan between South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and counterparts Wang Yi and Kamikawa Yoko—the first in four years—failed to generate sufficient momentum to set a date for the resumption of China-Japan-South Korea summitry. Instead, the resumption of China-South Korea or China-Japan-South Korea summitry will depend on developments in 2024.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Dialogue, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, South Korea, and North Korea

248. Both Koreas Ditch Their Border Accord

Author:: Aidan Foster-Career
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The last third of 2023 was eventful in Korea, especially the two final months. Fall found South Koreans preoccupied with events elsewhere, and their implications for the peninsula. In September, Kim Jong Un’s Siberian summit with Vladimir Putin prompted worries as to how closer Pyongyang-Moscow military ties might affect the ROK. In October, Hamas’ shocking attack on Israel added a new layer of alarm, warranted or otherwise. President Yoon Suk Yeol was among those expressing fear that the DPRK might launch a similar surprise assault. He soon had less hypothetical concerns. In November, in response to Pyongyang’s successful launch (following two earlier failures) of a military reconnaissance satellite, Seoul partially suspended 2018’s inter-Korean military accord—whereupon the North predictably scrapped it entirely. Tensions grew as both sides rearmed at the ironically named Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), and talked tough — none tougher than Kim Jong Un, who spoke openly of occupying the South. As the year ended, Kim declared a major change in DPRK doctrine. Dropping its longstanding lip service to reunification, the North now regards the peninsular situation as “relations between two belligerent states.” The implications of this shift remain to be seen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Borders, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

249. Taiwan Voters Choose Independence

Author:: David J. Keegan and Kyle Churchman
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Taiwan’s election campaign has concluded. Voters went to the polls on Jan. 13. As has been the case in almost every election, cross-Strait relations with China were the central issue, a secondary issue being President Tsai Ing-wen’s management of the economy. The outcome of the election will largely dictate the course of Taiwan-China relations over at least the next four years. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate and President Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor, William Lai Ching-te, the eventual winner, proclaims that Taiwan is already independent as the Republic of China. It should continue to diversify economic linkages away from China, strengthen military deterrence, and hope that China will eventually offer talks without one-China preconditions. The opposition Kuomintang candidate, Hou Yu-ih, called for expanded cross-Strait economic ties and dialogue with China under the one-China banner to reduce tensions while Taiwan also builds its military deterrence. China has deployed economic sticks, gray-zone military intimidation, and fake news to influence the election. Washington has expanded its support for Taiwan’s self-defense, though less vigorously than Republican critics in Congress would like. Taiwan and the US have continued to expand trade ties in ways that will benefit Taiwan businesses though without tariff concessions that Taiwan eagerly wants. Now that Taiwan voters have elected William Lai, as the polls predicted, China will likely respond with increasing coercion. Had Hou Yu-ih been victorious, his challenge would have been to navigate between Beijing’s pressure for cross-Strait concessions and Washington’s suspicions of any such steps by Taiwan.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Voting, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

250. Biden-Xi Woodside Summit and the Slow Rehabilitation of US-PRC Ties

Author:: Sourabh Gupta
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The “guardrails” that President Biden and President Xi envisaged in Bali in November 2022 began to be emplaced at their November 2023 summit in Woodside, California. In-person, leader-led communication was deepened, reassurances exchanged, and practical—albeit modest—“deliverables” locked down on several fronts, including restarting mil-mil communications, cracking down on fentanyl precursors, addressing the national security harms of artificial intelligence (AI), and increased people-to-people exchanges. The establishment of numerous bilateral working groups will ensure an almost full plate of across-the-board consultations in 2024 as well as the means to troubleshoot irritants on short notice. As stabilizing as the Woodside summit was, it failed to deflect the US-PRC relationship from its larger overall trajectory of “selective decoupling” across a range of advanced technologies and frontier industries (microelectronics; quantum; AI; biomanufacturing; clean energy). Strategic trade controls and other competitive actions were doubled down upon. With a pivotal US presidential election looming in 2024, questions abound on the longer-term durability of a rehabilitating US-PRC relationship.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Trade, Xi Jinping, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS