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81. Can France Provide European Allies with Nuclear Deterrence?

Author:
Roberto Zadra
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In his speech to fellow citizens on 5 March, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the opening of a “strategic debate on the protection of our allies on the European continent by our (nuclear) deterrent”.[1] It is not the first time: already in the 1990s then-president François Mitterrand alluded to a vocation européenne of French nuclear deterrence.[2] Macron himself proposed, already in February 2020, the opening of a dialogue on the matter.[3] The initiative was not very successful at the time, essentially because European allies considered the security guarantees provided by the United States to Europe through NATO sufficient, together with the repeated reassurances of NATO communiqués that the British and French nuclear forces “have a deterrent role of their own and contribute significantly to the overall security of the Alliance”.[4] This time, however, the reactions by many European allied countries to the French initiative will probably be different. For a simple reason: excluding the deployment of its own forces to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire and denying security guarantees to Kyiv, the Trump administration fuels the fears of European allies that Washington’s commitment to collective defence is less solid than in the past. Indeed, the Ukraine crisis has shown the limitations of the traditional NATO distinction between Article 5 and non-Article 5 – that is, between those who are members of NATO and therefore protected by collective defence, and those who are not because collective defence is not valid for NATO partners – as it has laid bare how crisis management and cooperative security are having a direct impact on (the perceived lack of US commitment to) collective defence in Europe.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and France

82. The New Partnership among Italy, Japan and the UK on the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP)

Author:
Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) launched by Italy, Japan and the UK in 2022 represents a novel partnership among the three countries for the development and production of a next-generation crewed fighter aircraft. A partnership based on equality of rights for and investments by the founding partners, as well as on the principles of Freedom of Action and Freedom of Modification at national level – that means full operational and technological sovereignty on the core platform, differently from the F-35 experience. As such, GCAP presents new challenges and opportunities in political, military and industrial terms, in addition to the programme’s tight schedule and high level of technological ambitions. The cooperation accelerated in 2024 with the establishment of a dedicated international governmental organisation to manage the programme, and the agreement on a joint venture among the three major companies involved on equal foot from the respective countries. This study provides an in-depth and comprehensive analysis of the specific British, Italian and Japanese ways to GCAP, of the programme’s politico-institutional governance and industrial architecture, as well as of training issue and the cross-sectorial implications for Italy. Moreover, a dedicated chapter focuses on the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) and the US Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programmes in a comparative perspective. The conclusions outline 15 policy recommendations for Italy concerning GCAP.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Defense Industry, and F-35
Political Geography:
Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, and Italy

83. NATO-Europe-US Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific: Challenging Times Ahead

Author:
Gabriele Abbondanza
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As the Indo-Pacific gradually becomes the world’s geopolitical and geoeconomic epicentre, states and regional organisations are progressively pivoting to it. Due to a combination of drivers – chiefly US pressure, economic opportunities, strategic interests and politico-normative priorities – European and Indo-Pacific actors have increased cooperation with Washington and NATO in the region. However, the second Trump administration looks considerably less aligned with the conventional pillars of US foreign policy. In light of the unfolding fracture between the US and its European allies over Ukraine, what lies ahead for NATO-Europe-US cooperation in the Indo-Pacific?
Topic:
NATO, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

84. Exploring options for advancing Kosovo-NATO relations

Author:
Ramadan Iazi and Jeta Loshaj
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
NATO’s role in Kosovo has been vital since the 1999 intervention and KFOR remains integral for guaranteeing security and stability not only in Republic of Kosovo but also the wider Western Balkans. Public sentiment for full NATO membership is extremely high in Kosovo—over 90% support—reflecting Kosovars’ enduring trust in the NATP alliance. However this overwhelming public support can be affected if Kosovo’s aspirations for closer ties with NATO are not addressed. While, Kosovo’s formal progress toward full membership is politically constrained by the fact that four NATO member states have yet to recognize its independence, there are other options that NATO can pursue to advance relations with Kosovo. In this context, this paper explores options how can Kosovo and NATO advance relations and cooperation. The 1995 study provides core principles for options that are examined in this paper. These principles remain highly relevant for Kosovo. While formal membership is stalled by non-recognizing NATO member states, the paper argues that an inclusive, step-by-step approach can be adapted for a flexible, deeper engagement with Kosovo. A central recommendation is the creation of a “Kosovo Enhanced Cooperation Initiative,” a tailored version of NATO’s partnership mechanisms (e.g., Partnership for Peace, Planning and Review Process, and the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre). KECI would aim to strengthen Kosovo’s defense institutions, enhance interoperability, support civil emergency preparedness, and develop broader crisis-management capabilities. Crucially, it would not force any change in the political stance on recognition among NATO member states. The EU-facilitated normalization dialogue between Republic of Kosovo and Serbia is one of the essential elements especially for Kosovo to build the confidence of both skeptical NATO member states and international partners when it comes to Euro-Atlantic integration process of the country. Regular coordination with NATO and the EU, particularly concerning sensitive actions in the north, would affirm that Kosovo’s leaders prioritize strategic partnerships and diplomacy over moves that risks and undermine support for Kosovo. Nevertheless, without any concrete carrots such as anything close to a guarantee that Kosovo gains an open perspective for NATO’s PfP, it is rather difficult for Kosovo to be encouraged to deliver on either an agreement with Serbia or any other agreement.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Partnerships, Normalization, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

85. How Does Disinformation Target and Affect Interethnic Relations in Kosovo?

Author:
Ramadan Ilazi, Jeta Loshaj, Tamara Pavlović, and Agnesa Bytyçi
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
Disinformation and misinformation are pervasive issues in Kosovo, where they exploit existing societal divisions and low trust in institutional narratives. Participants in focus groups and interviews largely defined misinformation as unintentional inaccuracies or partial truths spread due to misunderstanding or lack of verification, while disinformation was seen as deliberately misleading information designed to create division. Though malinformation was not discussed, the distinction between misinformation and disinformation highlights the deliberate nature of the latter in destabilizing interethnic relations. According to a recent NDI Kosovo survey 67% of Kosovo Serbs believe things are moving in the wrong direction, while 41% of Kosovo Albanians believe the opposite. Kosovo Serbs prioritize unemployment (66%) and interethnic tensions (49%) as their primary issues, while Albanians focus more on unemployment (77%) and corruption (56%). There is a significant disparity in perceptions of interethnic relations, while 65% of Kosovo Serbs expect relations to worsen, 53% of Kosovo Albanians are optimistic about improvement. Media consumption is heavily segmented by ethnicity with 79% of the Kosovo Serbs relying on Serbian TV stations daily, with 66% expressing trust in these outlets. Kosovo Albanian respondents primarily use Kosovo TV stations (86%) and social media (50%) as information sources. Trust in information sources remains low across ethnic groups, with reliance on personal networks (friends and family) common for fact-checking.2 Kosovo Serbian community widely believe in disinformation narratives, such as claims of ethnic cleansing plans and mistreatment by Kosovo Police during incidents like the Banjska terrorist attack. Among Kosovo Albanians, skepticism about these narratives is higher, reflecting ethnic polarization. A significant factor enabling both misinformation and disinformation is the skepticism toward institutional narratives—whether from the government, international organizations, or national media. These institutions are widely viewed as biased or agenda-driven, misaligned with the priorities of local communities. Conversely, reliance on familiar sources, such as ethnically divided local news outlets and word-of-mouth communication, exacerbates separation and distrust. These sources, while perceived as relatable and acting in the community’s best interest, are often biased, incomplete, or inaccurate, further reinforcing community echo chambers. Relations between Kosovar Albanians and Kosovar Serbs are frequently manipulated through disinformation to fuel distrust. Actions by the Kosovo Government impacting the Serbian community—such as institutional closures—are framed in Serbian media as ethnic discrimination or even “ethnic cleansing.” Similarly, uncontextualized or sensationalized reports about past events, like the fabricated claim of Albanian children being drowned by Serbs, continue to inflame ethnic hostility. These narratives exploit the unresolved history, reinforcing grievances that hinder reconciliation efforts. Socio-economic hardships, such as high poverty rates and employment gaps, increase susceptibility to disinformation. According to the 2024 Democracy Plus Vulnerability Index, which saw Kosovo’s vulnerability score rise from 41 to 57, economic instability makes individuals more receptive to emotionally charged misinformation.3 Limited access to quality education weakens critical thinking and media literacy, leaving many unable to identify biased information. The National Democratic Institute in their report on Information Integrity in Kosovo Assessment of the Political Economy of Disinformation (July 2022) found that the education system insufficiently prepares citizens for assessing online disinformation, further enhancing vulnerability. The issue of disinformation is not merely a challenge of modern information ecosystems; it is a deliberate strategy employed by internal and external actors to destabilize communities and undermine democratic governance. As digital platforms expand access to information, they also facilitate the rapid spread of false narratives, making it increasingly difficult for communities to discern fact from fiction. This report addresses these challenges with a focus on their implications for interethnic relations between Kosovo Albanians and Serbs. This report is grounded in qualitative research, incorporating insights from two primary sources: Two focus group discussions were conducted with a total of fifteen participants, comprising a mix of Kosovo Albanians and Kosovo Serbs. These discussions provided a grassroots perspective on how disinformation affects interethnic dynamics, exploring lived experiences, perceptions, and community-level challenges. Additionally, nine in-depth interviews were conducted with a diverse range of stakeholders, including local and international experts, representatives from civil society, and government officials. These interviews offered expert insights into the structural, cultural, and political dimensions of disinformation in Kosovo. The combination of these approaches ensures a nuanced understanding of the issue, capturing both macro-level trends and micro-level experiences. The findings are contextualized within existing literature and complemented by statistical data from surveys and prior studies. The report is structured as follows: A detailed analysis of the main themes and insights that emerged from the focus groups and interviews, highlighting the impact of disinformation on interethnic relations, institutional trust, and reconciliation efforts. The next section explores the structural, cultural, and political factors that make Kosovo particularly susceptible to disinformation. A breakdown of the primary methods and stories used in disinformation campaigns, including the roles of media, political actors, and diaspora communities, is also included. An assessment of how disinformation influences community dynamics, perpetuates stereotypes, and undermines peacebuilding initiatives. Kosovo’s ongoing efforts at normalization of relations with Serbia make the issue of disinformation particularly salient. Disinformation not only perpetuates division but also undermines trust in institutions and mediation efforts to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia. By addressing the mechanisms and impacts of disinformation, this report seeks to contribute to a deeper understanding of how to better counter disinformation targeting interethnic relations, in order to foster a cohesive and democratic society. The findings and recommendations presented here are intended to serve as a resource for policymakers, civil society organizations, media practitioners, and international actors working to promote peace and reconciliation in Kosovo. At its core, this report emphasizes the importance of fostering resilience against disinformation where interethnic relations are characterized by trust, cooperation, and mutual respect. The research paper “Understanding How Disinformation Targets and Affects Interethnic Relations in Kosovo” is implemented with the support of the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID), in Kosovo. The content of this research paper belongs to the Kosovar Center for Security Studies and does not necessarily reflect the position and stances of NDI and USAID.
Topic:
Ethnicity, Institutions, Disinformation, Misinformation, Trust, and Civil Peace
Political Geography:
Europe and Kosovo

86. Botswana land policies, colonial legacy, socio-economic injustice and the politics of populism

Author:
Sheila Khama
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
This briefing highlights the key challenges and policy recommendations related to Botswana’s land tenure system, with a particular focus on the government’s recent acquisition of land from the Tati Company and its implications for land governance and socioeconomic justice. Historically, Botswana's land tenure system evolved through pre- and post-colonial eras, divided into three categories: communal (tribal), state (formerly Crown), and freehold land. Despite minimal white settler presence compared to other African nations, land ownership by former colonial settlers remains a sensitive issue, raising questions about socioeconomic equity. A 2023 government purchase of 45,000 hectares of freehold land from the Tati Company reignited debate on land ownership and absentee landlords, as well as urban land shortages. The transaction, while symbolic, was criticised for failing to address deeper land access issues. The purchase underscored ongoing tensions around land rights and the state’s need to ensure equitable land distribution and effective use.
Topic:
Post Colonialism, Populism, Socioeconomics, and Land Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

87. Leveraging 4IR for Governance and Urban Development in Johannesburg

Author:
Mmabatho Mongae
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Johannesburg’s ability to harness the transformative potential of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is hindered by persistent governance and administrative weaknesses. While the city scores well for service delivery and economic development, its poor rankings in planning, leadership, and administration on the Governance Performance Index suggest challenges in execution and institutional efficiency. While Johannesburg has demonstrated foresight in adopting 4IR policies – such as the Smart City Strategy – these efforts risk being undermined if governance bottlenecks remain unaddressed. This briefing highlights the critical role of strong leadership and efficient administration in ensuring that 4IR-driven initiatives do not exacerbate inequality, but instead respond to Johannesburg’s urban challenges. To maximize the benefits of 4IR, Johannesburg must strengthen governance structures, improve policy coordination, and foster equitable implementation, ensuring that technological advancements enhance service delivery, economic growth, and urban resilience for all residents.
Topic:
Governance, Economic Growth, Fourth Industrial Revolution, and Urban Development
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Johannesburg

88. A silver lining? The US aid freeze should spur Nigeria to greater self-reliance

Author:
Julia Bello-Schunemann
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Foreign aid has never been the solution to Nigeria’s multiple development challenges. However, the halt to US development assistance1 and the de facto shutdown of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will cause additional hardship for Nigeria’s most vulnerable. Modelling based on the International Futures model (IFs)2 , a forecasting platform housed at the University of Denver, suggests that the decision could push approximately 700 000 additional Nigerians into extreme poverty by 2030. The health sector is disproportionately affected by the freeze as it depends excessively on US aid, primarily for the fight against HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases. Nigeria is one of 10 countries globally that are most reliant on US funding3 for HIV medicines. The US policy shift is a wake-up call for the Tinubu administration to rise to the task of mobilising domestic funds to provide essential services to the population.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, USAID, and Health Sector
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, Nigeria, and United States of America

89. Enhancing Local Governance: How the private sector can support data capacity in South Africa’s municipalities

Author:
Stuart Morrison and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
According to the World Bank’s Statistical Capacity Index1 , South Africa ranks among the highest on the African continent. This strong foundation positions the country at the forefront of Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies, particularly in leveraging government and open-access data to address national and subnational challenges. Cities like Cape Town and eThekwini have established Open Data Portals (ODPs) – online open-access data repositories that enhance transparency, improve service delivery tracking, and help identify pressing socioeconomic and infrastructure challenges. These portals not only benefit municipal decision-making but also provide businesses with valuable datasets to identify investment opportunities, market trends, and areas for social innovation.2 Despite these benefits, South Africa faces challenges in expanding and sustaining ODPs, particularly at the local government level. This presents a unique opportunity for the private sector to support local governments in the development and maintenance of ODPs. Using Cape Town and eThekwini as case studies, this report examines why private sector involvement in OPDs is crucial and how such partnerships can strengthen local governance, drive economic innovation, and foster inclusive urban development.
Topic:
Governance, Private Sector, Data, and Fourth Industrial Revolution
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

90. Public Debt and the Income Share of the Top 1% in the US, 1960-2019

Author:
Aggela Papadopoulou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
This study theorizes the relationship between sovereign debt and income inequality and shows that increases in public indebtedness are robustly associated with increases in the income share of the top one percent in the US since the 1960s. First, the paper outlines the mechanisms through which public debt is linked to the top one percent income share, via interest payments and capital gains from bond trading. Subsequently, it scrutinizes the evolution of public debt and the income share of the top one percent in the US, in parallel with the historical development of political and economic institutions. Building on the historical analysis, it demonstrates econometrically that interest payments and total returns on domestic and foreign public debt are positively associated with the income share of the top one percent in the US for the period 1960 to 2019.
Topic:
Income Inequality, Public Debt, and Top One Percent
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

91. Dollar Colonisation: The Destructive Policy Implications of Modern Monetary Theory

Author:
Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Modern monetary theory argues that all governments that issue their own currency have the same policy space. The present paper argues that this position is wrong. For it to be valid, abstraction must be made from the gravitational force of the US dollar that stems from its backing mass of securities and is transmitted through international investment flows. On recognition of this gravitational force, it becomes clear that the huge size disparity separating the US financial market from those of other markets, and most notably those of the EMEs, translates into an equally huge disparity regarding policy space. The policy implications for EME governments are that they should, where possible, join their financial markets into regional blocs of sufficient sizes as can give their regional currencies enough backing mass to allow them to resist the gravitational pull of the dollar. Only by pooling their currency sovereignty can EME governments retain some scope for pursuing policies independently of those pursued by the US government. On the contrary, any such scope is destroyed if EME governments in countries with small financial markets follow the MMT's advice to retain their local currencies because that advice condemns these currencies to entrapment in the dollar's gravitational field and even possibly to outright dollar colonisation.
Topic:
Currency, Dollar, Colonization, and Modern Monetary Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

92. Black Intergenerational Mobility, Libertarian Capitalism, and Authoritarian Government, 1877–1941: A Case Study

Author:
Patrick L. Mason
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
There are persistent multigenerational Black-white gaps in occupational attainment. These racial differences in intergenerational mobility are not caused by differences in family values and behavior (Mason, 2007). For three decades, I have gathered evidence on my family’s intergenerational transition from enslavement to present social and economic circumstances. Charles and Susan Rollins were 32 and 29 years-old, respectively, as enslavement ended in 1865. During Reconstruction, they accumulated wealth, established a successful dairy and other farming, helped found a church and religious organizations, helped found multiple civic organizations, served on boards affiliated with the local university and high school, were elected to County and State public office, had savings and bank accounts for the entire family, and were leaders among an extensive social network. Jim Crow in the South and anti-black racism in the north stymied upward mobility for the Rollins family for the three generations after Charles and Susan, despite the fact that their descendants obtained greater education than their ancestors, displayed a willingness to relocate 100s of miles away from their home, possessed a culture of achievement (hard work, future orientation, married couple families, etc.), were blessed with exceptional social capital, and, perhaps, the relative advantage of being mulattoes.
Topic:
History, Authoritarianism, Capital, Libertarianism, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

93. Fracking or No Fracking? How a Green Transition Can Work for Workers

Author:
Robert Pollin and Jeannette Wicks-Lim
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Throughout the 2024 U.S. Presidential campaign, the only climate-related issue to achieve prominence was the question of whether to ban fracking operations in the United States. Donald Trump is a long-time climate denier, and therefore had no qualms in supporting fracking and all other techniques for extracting fossil fuels from the ground. By contrast, Kamala Harris had supported a nationwide ban on fracking during her 2019 presidential campaign. This was due to the severe negative environmental and public health impacts of this natural gas extraction technique and because burning natural gas to produce energy generates CO2 emissions that cause climate change. But Harris opposed a fracking ban in 2024 on the assumption that the ban would impose major costs to the economy of Pennsylvania, which has the second-largest fracking operations among U.S. states, after Texas only. Such negative economic outcomes in Pennsylvania would indeed result if fracking were banned in the U.S. and no large-scale alternative economic activities were introduced into Pennsylvania’s economy. But banning fracking must be understood as one component of a much larger program to advance a viable climate stabilization program, in Pennsylvania, and everywhere else. We find that building a clean energy-dominant infrastructure in Pennsylvania—focused on investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources—will generate approximately 160,000 jobs in the state. Meanwhile, phasing down fracking and all other fossil fuel activities by 50 percent between 2026 – 35 will entail job losses in the range of 1,700 per year within the state. We argue that these 1,700 displaced fossil fuel workers should receive just transition policies that include pension, employment and income guarantees, in addition to, as needed, retraining and relocation support. We estimate that such a just transition program for these workers will cost in the range of $240 million per year. This amounts to about 0.02 percent of Pennsylvania’s current GDP. Thus, we show how, between 2026 – 2035, Pennsylvania could phase out 50 percent of all its fossil fuel production activities—including fracking operations—while also providing generous support for workers to transition out of their fossil fuel industry jobs and into activities that both raise public health and environmental standards in the state and contribute toward a viable global climate stabilization project.
Topic:
Climate Change, Elections, Green Transition, and Fracking
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

94. Employment in Child Care and Early Education in the U.S. 2000-2021

Author:
Aritra Basu and Nancy Folbre
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Accurate assessment of trends in the availability and affordability of childcare services in the U.S. hinges on accurate assessment of a paid labor force that is difficult to precisely measure, because it spans a wide range of informal and formal institutional arrangements. This paper calls attention to these measurement problems and traces significant changes in the composition of child care and early education employment from 2000 to 2021 based on data from the American Community Survey (ACS). It shows that employment in the Child Day Care Services industry has become an increasingly poor measure of the number of those employed in Child Care and Preschool/Kindergarten occupations, due to increased provision in both Private Household Services and Elementary and Secondary Education industries. Comparisons of worker characteristics and median annual earnings across occupations and industries highlight the effects of institutional context, including differences in the composition of demand for paid care services. Consideration of these issues points to the need for specific improvements in labor force survey design.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Survey, and Child Care
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

95. IMF, Structural Adjustment, and Poverty: A Cross-National Difference-in-Differences Analysis, 1980-2018

Author:
Shih-Yen Pan, Lawrence P. King, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been one of the world’s most powerful international organizations in setting the parameters for economic reforms in the developing world. In this study, using data from 1980-2018 from 57 countries, we test competing hypotheses surrounding the impact of the IMF’s lending programs on poverty incidence in participant countries. Departing from the prevailing practice of relying on instrumental variables, we employ a novel difference-in-differences approach that ensures clean comparisons between “treatment” and “control” units based on their program participation histories. Besides providing a quantitative estimate of the average program effect, we evaluate whether the IMF’s alleged anti-poverty focus in recent decades has made any difference. We find that IMF program participation leads to large increases (3.6-5.7 percentage points) in the proportion of a country’s population living under the $3.65/day and $6.85/day international poverty lines (2017 PPP) and the countryspecific Societal Poverty Line. We also find that the poverty reduction measures incorporated by the IMF into its programs have not been effective in mitigating the poverty-increasing program effects. Overall, our findings show that IMF programs have been detrimental to the welfare of vulnerable populations in participant countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Organization, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

96. Oil and the Cameroonian Economy: A Story of Unfulfilled Potential

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana, Hans Tino Mpenya Ayamena, and Juste Lokossou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
While Cameroon is one of the most endowed African countries in a wide range of overground and underground natural resources, it has struggled to leverage these resources to secure a decent living standard for the majority of its population. Instead of boasting impressive development outcomes, Cameroon is among African resource rich countries that are known for suffering high financial hemorrhage through capital flight. In a sense, capital flight from Africa has become a chronic manifestation of the ‘resource curse’ that tends to plague countries that are endowed with vast amounts of resources in a context of poor institutions and weak regulatory frameworks. This study provides a detailed analysis of the historical emergence of an externally dominated oil sector and the institutional and regulatory arrangements governing the sector to shed light on the causes of the country’s failure to fulfill its potential considering its impressive resource endowment. The evidence may shed light on strategies to usher a new path towards a Cameroonian economy beyond oil.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

97. Do alternative households improve paid employment outcomes? A comparative analysis of same-sex partnerships in Brazil

Author:
Cicero Braga and James Heintz
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper explores the labor market implications of household formation among same-sex married couples in Brazil, comparing them with different-sex married couples and unpartnered individuals. Using data from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNADC) from 2016 to 2019, the study provides a descriptive overview of same-sex households and analyzes patterns of partnership formation, racial and educational endogamy/homogamy, and paid employment outcomes. Despite data limitations, findings suggest that same-sex couples may benefit from household formation by adopting alternatives to traditional patriarchal dynamics. Women in same-sex partnerships exhibit greater labor market participation and earnings, while men may experience reduced pressure to conform to traditional breadwinner roles. All married/partnered individuals earn a wage premium, relative to unpartnered individuals, but this premium varies by type of couple, sex, and the partner’s education and employment status. The paper highlights the importance of recognizing diverse household structures to fully understand economic well-being and inequities. Further research on the broader spectrum of "families of choice" is necessary to better capture the economic experiences of the LGBTI community in Brazil.
Topic:
Employment, LGBT+, Economic Inequality, Labor Market, Household, and Gender Roles
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

98. Investing in a Green Future: Finance, Industrial Policy and the Green transition

Author:
Ramaa Vasudevan
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
We present a framework to assess green climate finance and the pathways to building a climate aligned financial system. This would involve the strategic reorientation of central bank interventions, national development banks and multilateral and regional banks and coherent purposive collaborations between these institutions and interventions to decisively reshape the contemporary global financial system that is out of tune with the long-term imperatives of climate action. Aligning finance to climate goals at the necessary scale, pace and direction requires the calibration of financial flows across three axes: ‘public-private’; ‘real-financial’ and ‘national-international’. Along the first axis the naturedepleting, climate imperiling logic of short-term private profitability needs to be contained in order to pursue the public priorities of climate action. Along the second axis, policy efforts have to be geared to ensuring that financial flows are financing investments in climate mitigation and adaptation and not simply providing more fodder for the global portfolio glut and financial accumulation. Finally, along the third axis warding global funding and support on appropriate terms has to be provided to the most vulnerable countries while buttressing national ownership of the green mission.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

99. The Distribution of Climate Finance among Annex-II Countries: A CBDR-RC Approach for Partial Funding of the Developing Countries

Author:
Shouvik Chakraborty
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Developing nations face the significant challenge of reconciling their efforts in climate change mitigation with the urgent need for financial resources to adapt to climate-related disasters, achieve sustainable development, and stabilize their economies. The financial requirements for addressing climate impacts span various sectors, including energy transition, energy efficiency, transportation, agriculture, forestry, other land use (AFOLU), and adaptation strategies. Estimates provided by reputable international organizations, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suggest that the annual global climate finance needs may range from $4.2 trillion to $5.7 trillion. Within this framework, the share allocated to developing countries is estimated to constitute approximately $1.9 trillion to $2.0 trillion annually, mainly to support mitigation efforts. It is widely acknowledged that developing countries are unlikely to meet these financial demands independently. Consequently, it is projected that around $1 trillion must be sourced from advanced economies, particularly the AnnexII countries. This paper introduces a methodology grounded in the principles of common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability (CBDR-RC). It facilitates a structured distribution of financing responsibilities among Annex II nations. The methodology incorporates the notion of historical responsibility, quantified as carbon debt, while also measuring capability through a balanced consideration of the wealth and gross domestic product (GDP) of the AnnexII countries. The analysis conducted reveals that the United States of America (USA) is required to contribute nearly half of the total financial obligations among the AnnexII countries, with the remaining funds to be apportioned among other nations within this group.
Topic:
Development, Finance, Climate Finance, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

100. Navigating Debt Sustainability: An In-Depth Analysis of the IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework and Its Critique

Author:
Hasan Cömert, Güney Düzçay, and T. Sabri Öncü
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the IMF's debt sustainability analyses (DSAs), delving into their methodologies and implications and highlighting their problems. Since 2002, the DSAs have been the cornerstone of the IMF programs, providing the primary analytical tool to justify and determine the paths and targets specified. Although the DSAs evolved significantly over time, they have severe foundational problems. They rely heavily on strong assumptions and staff judgments, and thereby, they are primarily non-transparent. Secondly, there are significant issues regarding the conduct of DSAs. They have grown excessively complex, hindering consensus on components without necessarily improving assessment quality. Thirdly, the IMF makes very high-stakes decisions with low precision, relying on persistent over-optimism in growth forecasting and paving the way for tighter fiscal policies. Fourthly, the debt dynamics equation of DSAs is inconsistent with stock flow dynamics because it focuses heavily on the primary balance as the main driver. Fifthly, the IMF's framework does not pay enough attention to the underlying reasons for accumulating external debt in developing nations. It often treats external borrowing as a substitute for domestic debt without accounting for the asymmetric international financial architecture.
Topic:
Debt, Fiscal Policy, Sustainability, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus