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49871. Sudan: Fulfilling the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
Sudan stands today at a precipice. In 100 days the South will hold a referendum on self-determination with a vote for independence expected. Extensive early warnings exist indicating a real threat of the commission of mass atrocities surrounding the referendum, with those populations most at risk already identified. This threat looms while intertribal violence in the South is rising; conflict in Darfur persists; attacks by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in Central and Western Equatorial states continue unabated; and a return to war in the South is a possibility.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

49872. Regional Workshop on Dealing with Energy Vulnerabilities

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Much literature on energy security in East Asia has focused on the dynamics of competition over resources, and how conflicts could arise from this. While this analytical perspective identifies potential risks and is conducive to the proposing of pre-emptive solutions to likely problems, it also risks precluding necessary attention to the possibilities for cooperation between states in the region. While the themes of competition and conflict will continue to be relevant in discussions on East Asian states and societies, it ought to be a useful exercise to review case studies of how countries in East Asia have managed to overcome their respective vulnerabilities and thus meet their energy needs. Such knowledge can in turn contribute to the exploration of cooperation-based solutions for addressing energy security in the region.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia

49873. The Impact of Migration and Remittances on Wealth Accumulation and Distribution in Rural Thailand

Author:
Filiz Garip
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of internal migration and remittance flows on wealth accumulation and distribution in 22 rural villages in Nang Rong, Thailand. Using data from 943 households, the study constructs indices of household productive and consumer assets with principal components analysis. The changes in these indices from 1994 to 2000 are modeled as a function of households' prior migration and remittance behavior while correcting for potential selectivity bias with propensity score matching. The findings show that rich households face a decrease in productive assets due to migration of their members, while poor households with migrants gain productive assets and improve their relative status in their communities. These results suggest an equalizing effect of migration and remittance flows on wealth distribution in rural Thailand.
Topic:
Migration, Poverty, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

49874. Discovering Diverse Mechanisms of Migration: The Mexico-U.S. Stream from 1970 to 2000

Author:
Filiz Garip
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Migrants to the United States are a diverse population. This diversity, captured in various migration theories, is overlooked in empirical applications that describe a typical narrative for an average migrant. Using the Mexican Migration Project data from about 17,000 first-time migrants between 1970 and 2000, this study employs cluster analysis to identify four types of migrants with distinct configurations of characteristics. Each migrant type corresponds to a specific theoretical account, and becomes prevalent in a specific period, depending on the economic, social and political conditions. Strikingly, each migrant type also becomes prevalent around the period in which its corresponding theory is developed.
Topic:
Migration and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

49875. The Role of Women in Global Security

Author:
Valerie Norville
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Building lasting peace and security requires women's participation. Half of the world's population cannot make a whole peace. Ten years after the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1325 on increasing women's participation in matters of global security, the numbers of women participating in peace settlements remain marginal. While improvements have been made, women remain underrepresented in public office, at the negotiating table, and in peacekeeping missions. The needs and perspectives of women are often overlooked in postconflict disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR), as well as in security sector reform, rehabilitation of justice, and the rule of law. Many conflicts have been marked by widespread sexual and gender-based violence, which often continues in the aftermath of war and is typically accompanied by impunity for the perpetrators. A continuing lack of physical security and the existence of significant legal constraints in postconflict societies hamper women's integration into economic life and leadership. Best practices for increasing women's participation include deployment of gender-balanced peacekeeping units, a whole-of-government approach to security sector and judicial reform, and more intentional solicitation of the input of women at the community level on priori - ties for national budgets and international programs.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Globalization, and United Nations

49876. Breaking the Cycle of Electoral Violence in Nigeria

Author:
Ebere Onwudiwe and Chloe Berwind-Dart
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Nigeria's 2011 polls will mark the fourth multiparty election in Nigeria and, if a power transfer occurs, only the second handover of civilian administrations since the country's return to democracy in 1999. Past election cycles have featured political assassinations, voter intimidation, intra-and interparty clashes, and communal unrest. Party primary season, the days immediately surrounding elections, and the announcement of results have been among the most violent periods in previous cycles. Although the most recent elections in 2007 derived some benefit from local conflict management capacity, they were roundly criticized for being neither free nor fair. The 2011 elections could mark a turning point in the consolidation of Nigeria's democracy, but they could also provoke worsening ethnosectarian clashes and contribute to the continuing scourge of zero-sum politics. President Umaru Yar'Adua, who died in May 2010, kept his 2007 inauguration promise to create an Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) but failed to adopt key recommendations that the committee made. His successor, President Goodluck Jonathan, appointed a widely respected professor, Attahiru Jega, to head the Independent National Electoral Commission, inspiring hope that electoral processes will improve in 2011. The issue of “zoning,” the political elite's power-sharing agreement, has taken center stage in the current election cycle and will drive significant conflict if the debate around it devolves into outright hostilities. his unusual election cycle, local and international organizations and Electoral Management Bodies (EMBs) must redouble their efforts both to prevent and resolve conflicts and to promote conflict sensitivity. The near term requires an increasingly important role for the judiciary in combating electoral fraud, and the longer term requires the creation of the ERC–recommended Electoral Offenses Commission, which would specialize in the investigation and prosecution of crimes. Local agencies and respected community leaders must remain proactive and creative in violence-prevention programming, irrespective of international funding. Established local organizations with preexisting networks are best situated to perform early-warning and conflict management functions. High voter turnout and citizen monitoring are vital for ensuring that the 2011 elections in Nigeria are credible and civil.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

49877. Countering Radicalization in America: Lessons from Europe

Author:
Lorenzo Vidino
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The recent surge in the number of American Muslims involved in terrorism has led U.S. authorities to question the long-held assumption that American Muslims are immune to radicalization, and to follow the example of other Western democracies in devising a comprehensive counter radicalization strategy. Radicalization is a highly individualized process determined by the complex interaction of various personal and structural factors. Because no one theory can exhaustively explain it, policymakers must understand the many paths to radicalization and adopt flexible approaches when trying to combat it. The role of religion in the radicalization process is debated, but theories that set aside ideology and religion as factors in the radicalization of Western jihadists are not convincing. Policymakers who choose to tackle religious aspects should do so cautiously, however, cognizant of the many implications of dealing with such a sensitive issue. Policymakers need to determine whether a counter radicalization strategy aims to tackle violent radicalism alone or, more ambitiously, cognitive radicalism. The relation between the two forms is contested. Challenging cognitive radicalism, though possibly useful for both security and social cohesion purposes, is extremely difficult for any Western democracy.Finding partners in the Muslim community is vital to any counter radicalization program. In light of the fragmentation of that community, a diverse array of partners appears to be the best solution. There is the risk, however, that counter radicalization efforts could be perceived by Muslims as unfairly targeting them. Partnerships with nonviolent Islamists could provide results in the short term, but there are doubts as to their long-term implications. All aspects of a partnership with such groups should be carefully examined before any decision is made. Policymakers need to find ways to empirically measure their programs' effectiveness.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States and America

49878. The Constitutional History of U.S. Foreign Policy: 222 Years of Tension in the Twilight Zone

Author:
Walter A. McDougall
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
In 1973, Congress passed the infamous War Powers Resolution (WPR), over Richard Nixon’s veto. It was perhaps the most ambitious Congressional effort to bridle the President since the battle with Andrew Johnson over Reconstruction. The WPR is worth reading—once—then forgetting, because its convoluted, contradictory, and doubtless unconstitutional mix of instructions, restrictions, and ticking clocks has never been honored by any administration or upheld by any court. Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush all dispatched U.S. forces into combat situations without paying more than lip service to the WPR. In 1990, following Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, President Bush stationed 100,000 personnel in Saudi Arabia. He sought no authorization and, in fact, informed just one member of Congress: Senator Sam Nunn (D., Ga.). When he then prepared Operation Desert Storm to liberate Kuwait, 54 Congressmen led by the chairman of House Armed Services Committee, Berkeley radical Ron Dellums (D., Calif.), filed for an injunction to stop the war. U.S. District Judge Harold H. Greene ran for cover. Noting that 54 fell far short of a majority, he judged the case “not ripe for judicial determination.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Governance, Law, and Constitution
Political Geography:
United States

49879. Understanding Military Innovation: Chinese Defense S in Historical and Theoretical Perspective

Author:
Thomas G. Mahnken
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Given the high stakes involved in China's rise, both in Asia and globally, understanding the scope and pace of Chinese military modernization is an important undertaking. This brief applies insights from the theory and history of military innovation to the task of understanding China's development of anti-access and area denial capabilities and provides recommendations on how the United States can improve its ability to detect and recognize Chinese military innovation.
Topic:
International Relations and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North America

49880. The Chinese Defense Economy's Long March from Imitation to Innovation

Author:
Tai Ming Cheung
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, China's defense science, technology, and innovation (DSTI) system has been vigorously developing a comprehensive set of innovation capabilities that will eventually allow it to join the world's top tier of military technological powers. Ample access to financial, human, and research resources; strong political support; inflows of foreign technologies and know-how; and the introduction of advanced modes of governance, market competition, and management are producing significant progress, although from a low base. But long-term success is far from assured as daunting structural bottlenecks stand in the way, not the least of which is the struggle to overcome a long history of debilitating Socialist central planning.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, Markets, Science and Technology, and Governance
Political Geography:
China and Asia