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101. Evaluation of Feminist Philosophy of Begum Rokeya Shakawat Hussain with Other Scholars in the Pre-and Post-Colonial Era

Author:
Md. Habibur Rahman and Md. Aktarul Islam
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Mrs. S.R. Hussain, unanimously well-known as Begum Rokeya Shakawat Hussain or simply Begum Rokeya, was a Bengali feminist writer, and social activist who advocated throughout her lifetime for women’s education and socio-economic emancipation. Her roles in the awakening of the Bengali women of Bangladesh and India will always be remembered with reverence and inspired thousands to break the shackles of the vicious circle of backwardness and superstitions. The main objective of this research paper is to evaluate the feminist philosophy of Rokeya with that of other change makers in the pre-and post-colonial era. Furthermore, it has focused on Rokeya’s feminist philosophy and the contributions of other celebrated feminist activists around the world. This research has followed the qualitative approach by reviewing secondary data and information. The findings of this research have shown that some women who initiated various reformation movements in Bengal were vocal in bringing about socio-economic changes and fought against injustice and discrimination alongside their male counterparts. The global feminist and Islamic divine books have also played a vital role for women’s rights and empowerment. The philosophy and contributions of Begum Rokeya’s work are the major catalysts for eliminating gender disparity and balanced development in society.
Topic:
Human Rights, Women, Philosophy, Feminism, Post-Colonial, and Begum Rokeya
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

102. India's Neighbourhood PolicyA Collaborative Approach or a Bid for Dominance

Author:
Rabbani Attar and Anusha Attar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The turmoil in India's neighbouring countries can largely be attributed to the framework of India's neighbourhood policy: its underlying principles, strategy, and implementation. The principles refer to the norms and practices guiding the policy; the strategy involves how priorities are structured; and the implementation pertains to the methods of execution. These norms shape the actions taken to achieve set objectives, while priorities dictate the order and significance assigned to those objectives. The modes represent the pathways through which the policy is carried out. This paper critically examines the principles, priorities, and methods of India's policy towards its neighbors, suggesting that India seeks to establish dominance and often presents its national interests as those of the entire region.
Topic:
Hegemony, Strategic Interests, Regional Politics, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

103. Commentary: Democracy, Democratization, Institutions, and Inequality: Nobel-Winning Insights from Daron Acemoglu and His Collaborators

Author:
Ali Resul Usul
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This paper explores the seminal contributions of Daron Acemoglu and his collaborators to the understanding of democracy, democratization, institutions, and inequality, as recognized by the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. It delves into the stability and erosion of democratic institutions, emphasizing the interplay between historical legacies, class structures, and strategic political interactions. The analysis synthesizes insights from rational choice theory, historical institutionalism, and comparative political economy, highlighting the critical role of both formal and informal institutions in shaping political outcomes. Key concepts such as critical junctures, path dependence, and the dynamic balance between state capacity and societal power— termed the “Red Queen effect”—are examined to explain the persistence and transformation of political regimes. The paper also addresses the implications of economic inequality for democratic stability and the continuous process of adaptation required to maintain inclusive institutions. By integrating theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence, this work provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the complex dynamics of democratization and offers policy recommendations for strengthening democratic resilience in the face of contemporary challenges.
Topic:
Democratization, Democracy, Inequality, Institutions, and Path Dependence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

104. Forever the Frenemies of the Middle East? Türkiye’s Regional Relations with Iran, 2002 to 2023

Author:
Cem Savaş
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article investigates the puzzle of Türkiye’s fluctuating relations with Iran since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. Contrary to many scholars’ expectations, the AKP government’s relations with Iran have competition and rivalry rather than just cooperation. Having improved significantly in the early 2000s, the relations became tense following the Arab uprisings and Syria’s civil war. However, the relations between the two countries have included both cooperative and conflictual elements since 2016. This research argues that the most relevant level for analyzing Türkiye’s fluctuating foreign policy strategies toward Iran between 2002 and 2023 is regional. Using the regionalist approaches of Buzan and Wæver’s Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) and Lake and Morgan’s theory of regional orders, the article examines how the “local security externalities” of the Middle Eastern regional security complex (RSC) affect Türkiye-Iran regional relations by particularly focusing on speech acts of Turkish high-level foreign policy actors. By acknowledging the multi-layered nature of Middle Eastern politics, this study also considers the role of extra-regional actors and non-state armed groups in Turkish foreign policy attitudes toward Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, AKP, Regional Security, Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

105. The Logic of Foreign Policy: An Explanatory Model for Strategic Volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy Under the AKP Rule

Author:
Erol Kurubaş
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The AKP government in Türkiye has been following a foreign policy based on values and discourses rather than power and interests. However, despite the lack of a radical change in international conditions, contrasting approaches in terms of the nature of foreign policy, strategic orientation, foreign relations, and international image have been adopted by the same government over short intervals of time. While a first period was marked by a value-laden transformation, a second was marked by righteous and romantic discourse and actions pointing to more value-based mentality. In a third period, foreign policy was guided by a logic based on a populist and opportunist approach. This paper calls each of these bases that shape foreign policy a different logic of foreign policy. Accordingly, while the logic of the first period was constructed in “the modified base logic” and led to the quest for strategic depth in foreign policy, the logic of the second became “righteous-romantic” and resulted in “strategic instability”. The logic of third, on the other hand, was shaped by its reactive form and led to “strategic uncertainty”. In this way, the paper argues that the strategic volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy can be explained by the elements that constitute the logic of foreign policy and the interactions among them.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, AKP, and Volatility
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

106. Macroeconomic and distributional effects of fiscal consolidation measures in EU countries

Author:
Philipp Heimberger and Anna Matzner
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We provide new evidence on the effects of fiscal consolidation measures on output, unemployment, income inequality and consumer price inflation. To identify causal impacts, we use a narrative-based instrumental variable strategy drawing on historical records of exogenous fiscal changes motivated by deficit reduction, covering 12 EU countries from 1980 to 2020. Our results for the short to medium run show that fiscal consolidations (a) lower real output; (b) raise the unemployment rate; (c) increase income inequality; and d) reduce consumer price inflation. Contractionary macroeconomic effects are stronger during recessions than during non-recession periods.
Topic:
European Union, Income Inequality, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Austerity, Unemployment, and Fiscal Consolidation
Political Geography:
Europe

107. Pugwash workshop on Nordic Security: Deterrence and Risk Reduction

Author:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
With much of the arms control architecture dismantled in recent years, there is an urgent need to assess common interests, redefine security priorities, and identify workable approaches to reduce nuclear dangers between NATO and Russia. In particular, the Arctic and Baltic sub-regions have become unformed strategic spaces, creating novel escalation risks. This project will map the impact of NATO membership on the security policy of Nordic states on issues such as Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA), military readiness for article 5 commitments, and examine prospects for nuclear risk reduction and arms control initiatives.
Topic:
Deterrence, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Risk, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Nordic Nations, Russia, and Europe

108. Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026

Author:
Jessica Anania, Vicka Heidt, Anna Tuohey, and Jessica M. Smith
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
Entering 2026, the global security landscape is defined by record-high levels of armed conflict, democratic backsliding, geopolitical fragmentation, and an accelerating climate crisis—dynamics unfolding alongside unprecedented cuts to foreign aid and development assistance. These converging pressures are reshaping conflict environments in ways that disproportionately endanger women and girls while eroding the systems meant to protect them, even as women remain central actors in humanitarian response, peacebuilding, and civic resistance. Women, Peace and Security: Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026 integrates gender-responsive analysis into conflict forecasting by drawing on insights from the Women, Peace and Security Conflict Tracker and expert consultations. This report identifies three cross-cutting trends expected to shape conflict dynamics in the year ahead: the increasing weaponization of hunger as a tactic of conquest and control, with devastating gendered consequences; political transitions that intensify repression, violence, and women’s exclusion at critical decision-making moments; and worsening climate shocks that compound displacement, insecurity, and economic loss for women and girls. The report also profiles 10 settings—Colombia, Ethiopia, Iran, Israel & Palestine, Mali, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan, Ukraine, and Venezuela—where these dynamics are likely to be especially acute in 2026. By centering gendered risks as early warning indicators of instability, this report addresses a critical gap in mainstream conflict analysis and offers policymakers, donors, multilateral institutions, and civil society leaders a more inclusive framework for anticipating crises, protecting civilians, and advancing more durable and inclusive peace and security outcomes.
Topic:
Security, Women, Armed Conflict, Inclusion, Democratic Backsliding, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iran, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Colombia, Palestine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan, and Global Focus

109. Advancing Accountability in Development Finance: The Sandra Smithey Fellowship

Author:
Rachel Nadelman and Anushka Bose
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
The Sandra N. Smithey Fellowship for Equity and Accountability in International Development was created to honor the career of Sandra Smithey, particularly her legacy in amplifying frontline voices that champion transparent and accountable approaches to development finance. Between 2023 and 2025, the Smithey Fellowship, administered by the Accountability Research Center (ARC) at American University, provided support to eight advocates advancing accountability in development finance. The central premise of the Fellowship is that accountability work is most effective when driven by those directly affected by development decisions and supported by flexible, trust-based funding. ARC worked with each of the fellows to define their own strategic goals and approaches within the time or resources available, seeking to ensure that each could meet the most pressing opportunities or challenges they faced. It provided them with significant flexibility to make mid-course changes to respond to political realities on the ground. The philosophy of “putting the fellows first” resulted in eight bespoke fellowships that reflected the breadth of civil society efforts to promote community- and context-based accountability in international development finance. Across these experiences, several key lessons emerge: Flexibility is a foundation for impact and sustainability. When fellows were given space to adapt to rapidly changing contexts, they achieved outcomes that rigid programs might have constrained. Altering conventional fellowship designs can change the balance in north-south knowledge hierarchies. An adaptable fellowship structure enabled some fellows to pursue their projects whilst embedded in their local communities, accessing support where their work was already taking shape. Translating knowledge can enable power shifts. Fellows who converted technical or bureaucratic language into practical tools enabled communities to engage institutions on their own terms. Collaboration is a vehicle for continuity of both projects and relationships. Collaboration among mentors, allies, and civil society organizations extended the reach of individual projects and embedded learning in broader movements. Longer-term influence depended on intentional efforts to maintain networks, communication, and financial stability after formal support ended. Enabling frontline expertise to shape accountability narratives can effectively support existing movements for rights and remedy. The fellows demonstrated that it is those closest to injustice that have the insight and credibility to define what accountability should mean in their own contexts as a basis for transformative change. This Accountability Note describes the work of these fellows and explores how a targeted package of direct funding, reflecting the fellows’ priorities and accompanied by trusted partners, enabled them to respond effectively to new and changing conditions. Ultimately, the Smithey Fellowship demonstrated that modest, well-structured support, grounded in trust, autonomy, and solidarity, can enable progress towards accountability and enable advocates to define and pursue their own paths in building durable movements for justice.
Topic:
Accountability, Sustainability, Fellowships, and Development Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

110. Compounded Vulnerability: Spatial Patterns of Energy Burden, Heat Exposure, and Pollution in New York City

Author:
Ximena Aristizabal and Paola Jaimes
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Energy insecurity and climate risk increasingly intersect in urban areas, yet they are often treated as separate challenges. This paper examines how household energy affordability stress, extreme heat exposure, and ambient air pollution overlap across urban space, using New York City as a case study. We introduce the concept of compounded vulnerability to describe neighborhoods where high energy burden and high heat exposure coincide, potentially intensifying environmental and health risks. Drawing on tract-level energy burden estimates, satellite-derived surface temperature measures, and summer PM2.5 concentrations, we combine a place-based interpretation of urban infrastructure and historical disinvestment with a tract-level empirical analysis of co-located risks. We document spatial co-location of economic and environmental stressors: neighborhoods facing higher energy burden are, on average, hotter, and areas experiencing joint exposure to heat and energy stress are also situated in environments characterized by elevated summer pollution. These patterns point to a plausible urban mechanism through which climatic extremes interact with energy systems and the built environment, shaping unequal exposure during periods of peak stress.
Topic:
Climate Change, Pollution, Vulnerability, Energy Security, and Heat
Political Geography:
New York, North America, and United States of America

111. The Under-theorisation of Dollar Dominance

Author:
Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
The recent period has seen an upsurge in predictions that the dollar's international dominance will at some point be challenged by a rival currency, notably the euro. This paper counters these predictions. It argues that the overestimation of the euro's ability to challenge dollar dominance is due to the under-theorisation of the foundations of that dominance, the root problem being macroeconomic theories' tradition of taking the household investor to be the representative investor when it should in reality be an institutional asset manager. If financial securities are viewed through the lens of the institutional investor it becomes clear that there can be no exodus from the dollar because it becomes clear that foreign investors remain attracted to the US capital market for reasons as much to do with its mass and consequent gravitational force as to do with a shortage of securities that can be supplied by other capital markets.
Topic:
Political Economy, Investment, Macroeconomics, Currency, Dollar, Euro, and Capital Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

112. Contesting and Reassessing the 'Too Much Finance' Hypothesis: A Literature Review

Author:
Tania Rojas
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper reviews recent contributions that reassess and contest the “too much finance” hypothesis. It surveys a predominantly empirical body of work that, in contrast to earlier studies focused mainly on advanced economies, increasingly incorporates developing and less-developed regions. The evidence reviewed suggests that an inverted-U-shaped relationship between financial development and economic growth is more consistently identified in studies of advanced economies. In contrast, analyses of samples of less-developed countries more frequently report positive linear or U-shaped relationships, pointing to conditions of “too little finance.” The review also documents methodological shifts in the literature, including a growing adoption of nonlinear modeling strategies, the use of alternative measures of financial development, and a greater focus on mediating factors in the finance-growth nexus. The paper concludes that a clear consensus remains elusive. The literature faces persistent methodological challenges, sensitivity to model specification and sample composition, and a prevailing emphasis on empirical estimation rather than theoretical discussion.
Topic:
Finance, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Literature Review, and Financial Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

113. Analysis of Van Province’s Migration from Iran by Geographically Weighted Regression Method

Author:
Bahadır Yüzbaşı and Çetin Görür
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The ability of migrants to adapt to their new environment in a short period of time while establishing a new life is an important factor affecting the welfare of both individuals and societies. The process of adaptation can determine the quality of life of the individual, reflecting the migrant’s ability to adapt socially, economically and culturally to their new environment. Adaptation in the new life after migration is usually associated with factors such as age, post-migration support from public institutions, postmigration support from relatives, post-migration support from neighbors, and inadequate educational opportunities. In this study, migration from Iran to Van province was analyzed using the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. The analysis focused on identifying the factors that influence individuals’ responses to the statement “I adapted to my new life in a short time after migration”. According to the analysis results, it is observed that the GWR method gives stronger results. In comparison to the ordinary least squares (OLS) model, the GWR model demonstrates clear superiority across all evaluation criteria, indicating that the GWR model provides a substantially better fit to the data by capturing spatial variability more effectively.
Topic:
Migration, Integration, Forced Migration, Spatial Heterogeneity, and Local Modeling
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Van

114. Impact of Migration Policies on Ukrainian Migrants in Turkey: Embrace vs Provision

Author:
Şebnem Köşer Akçapar and Filiz Tutku Aydın
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to elucidate decision-making processes of Ukrainian forced migrants of diverse ethnic and religious backgrounds relocated in Turkey in the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian War since 2022. We examine trends in prospective plans, including return, settlement, migration to third countries, and identify key factors influencing social integration in Turkey. To this end, extensive field research was conducted in five provinces in Turkey – İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir, Eskişehir and Antalya – between 2022 and 2024. This study employed qualitative method consisting of in-depth interviews with a wide range of stakeholders, including Ukrainian diplomatic representatives, migrant organizations, Turkish provincial migration management officials, and post-2022 Ukrainian migrants who were residing in Turkey under various statuses. The findings indicated that decisions between permanence and transience were determined by the state’s migrant and asylum policies along the embrace and provision continuum. In addition, active involvement of ethnic organizations of Ukrainians in migration processes appear to act as a factor that either triggers or hinders social cohesion.
Topic:
Asylum, Decision-Making, Forced Migration, Migrants, Russia-Ukraine War, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

115. Diplomacy Meets Paradiplomacy: Unpacking Central Government Responses through Evidence from Turkey’s Paradiplomac

Author:
Esra Kaya Erdoğan and Emrah Atar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This study examines the central government’s response to the paradiplomacy of sub-state actors through an analysis of the Turkish case, using a qualitative approach. As part of this research, a total of twelve face-to-face or virtual interviews were conducted with the representatives from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Marmara Municipalities Union, and academics between June 2023 and November 2023. It views paradiplomacy as an outcome of the ongoing trend to localize diplomacy and aims to identify varying central government responses to paradiplomacy. These responses are analyzed using a three-fold categorization: positive, negative and mixed. The characteristics of each category explored in the context of the Turkish case. The study suggests that, despite the central government’s opportunistic approach to paradiplomacy, its response has shown a cyclical tendency. The central government’s stance on paradiplomacy is therefore complex and politically driven. It fluctuates along a broad spectrum, ranging from direct support to outright exclusion. This reflects the shifting political dynamics in Turkey.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Governance, Municipalities, and Sub-state Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

116. The European Court of Human Rights Framework of the Property Issue in Cyprus: An Evaluation of the Immovable Property Commission

Author:
Perçem Arman and Özde Bayraktar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Despite being physically divided in 1974, no peace agreement has been made in Cyprus since then. Amongst the issues awaiting solution, perhaps the most difficult one is the property issue. Problems related to property rights have been brought to the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) on several occasions. This study focuses on the Immovable Property Commission (IPC), which was established in accordance with the jurisprudence of the ECtHR. In a frozen conflict environment, the ECtHR, although not a transitional justice mechanism for resolving human rights violations in armed conflicts, occasionally plays an effective role in pressuring national authorities to repair the destructive effects of conflict periods. This study assesses the effectiveness of the IPC’s role in addressing property issues in general and within this specific context.
Topic:
Displacement, Transitional Justice, Property, Compensation, and European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

117. Lost in Definition: How Confusion over Agentic AI Risks Undermining U.S. Governance Frameworks

Author:
Yasir Atalan, Ian Reynolds, and Benjamin Jensen
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
“Agentic AI” is an umbrella term that covers a wide range of systems from basic chat assistants to complex autonomous workflows. This ambiguity risks undermining U.S. governance frameworks and creating procurement vulnerabilities that expose organizations to mismatched capabilities and unaccounted risks. If the same vague word is applied to a helpful chatbot and a combat-ready swarm, the United States could accidentally deploy a system with the power to start an operation before that system understands the context or risks involved. The danger is not that the AI lacks intelligence, but that it lacks judgment; a system might be smart enough to execute a task perfectly yet fail to realize that a sudden change in the local situation makes that task a catastrophic mistake. This is particularly critical in national security environments where decisionmaking stakes are high. There is a need for clearer context charts for AI workflows so that commanders know exactly which tasks a machine can handle alone and exactly which who is responsible if the machine makes a mistake. The U.S. government must establish a relational, capability-based taxonomy that specifies where systems sit in workflows, what authorities they exercise, and how accountability is distributed. This approach shifts acquisition and oversight from a narrow focus on technical features to understanding broad organizational impact and ensuring evaluation matches real operational risk.
Topic:
Governance, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, Economic Security, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

118. The Rise of “Watt’s Law” and Why Power Could Put a Ceiling on American Innovation

Author:
Maryam Cope
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
A foundational advantage of the U.S. digital economy is weakening. For decades, Moore’s Law and Dennard scaling delivered steady improvements in computing performance while keeping energy costs manageable and underpinning productivity growth, industrial competitiveness, and national security capabilities. AI workloads upend these assumptions. Modern AI systems depend on massive parallelism, continuous data movement, and sustained operation across large clusters, making energy utilization and availability more important than peak chip performance. This shift defines the emergence of “Watt’s Law.” Under Watt’s Law, AI capability scales with available power growth multiplied by system-wide innovation driven by full-stack optimization across hardware, software, networking, and operations. This can be measured by growth in tokens per joule of energy. Power is now the significant binding constraint on AI progress. National competitive advantage increasingly depends on who can most efficiently convert electricity into sustained, real-world AI output, rather than who builds the smallest transistors. The implications are strategic. Failure to adapt to a power-constrained scaling regime risks forfeiting a key source of productivity growth and long-term advantage in AI-enabled economic and national security capabilities. It also has implications for U.S. partnerships with energy-rich allies.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

119. China’s Solar Industry Is in Upheaval—The Effects Will Be Global

Author:
Michael Davidson and Sandy Qian
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Over the past few years, China’s solar industry has entered a period of intense upheaval. Price wars and margin compression have forced industry leaders—including Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, and JA Solar—to report significant losses. These firms, along with LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei—the industry’s top five—slashed their workforce by over 30 percent in 2024. The market is facing industry consolidation and exits not seen in over a decade, as over 40 smaller firms have filed for bankruptcy, been acquired, or exited the market. Chinese regulators are accelerating this process, which will have ripple effects across global solar markets. Several critical questions arise: Does this phase erode China’s leadership in solar, or entrench it further? Is it a window for others to close the gap, or a prelude to deeper market displacement? And when the current wave of capacity consolidation settles, what will the next global competitive order look like? The answer is already emerging. Rather than opening space for rivals to catch up, the current shocks are forging a more resilient Chinese solar core. By embedding deeper into global value chains and securing a technological lead, China is effectively reshaping the industry’s future trajectory to its own long-term advantage.
Topic:
Sustainability, Industry, Solar Power, and Energy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

120. Practical H-1B Reforms to Serve U.S. Economic Interests

Author:
Philip Luck and Thibault Denamiel
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
In its first year, the second Trump administration has implemented substantial changes to the H-1B immigration program. Some of these changes will create significant economic harm; others have the potential to improve efficiency and support industrial policy goals, with further adjustments. In September 2025, the administration announced a $100,000 fee on new petitions for H-1B visas outside of the United States, a likely prohibitive increase in costs for many firms seeking to hire skilled immigrant labor. In parallel, the administration released a final rule last December to increase the visa lottery system’s allocation efficiency. The administration’s lottery reform would benefit from additional changes to better distribute the economic dividends of skilled immigration to underserved geographies and priority sectors. Such policy changes are critically important to U.S. competitiveness, given the program’s track record of success in attracting global talent and driving economic growth. To strengthen the United States’ technological advantage, innovation ecosystem, and economic prosperity, policymakers should look to expand the H-1B program and reform its incentives while limiting costly new barriers to its use.
Topic:
Reform, Innovation, Economic Security, Immigration Policy, and H-1B Visa
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

121. Energy Infrastructure and the Defense Industrial Base

Author:
Joseph Majkut, Alexander Palmer, and Raj Sawhney
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Can the energy infrastructure serving the U.S. defense industrial base sustain production under mobilization? This paper focuses on three scenarios for mobilization consistent with baseline production, defense buildup, and peer war. Using embodied energy methods, the research team estimates that war production rates would require 17.4 petajoules (PJ) of energy annually, a relatively small amount nationally, but one that would need to be concentrated at facilities in already stressed grid regions. Facilities for the defense-critical production of steel, aluminum, titanium, and semiconductors are clustered in regions already facing eroding reserve margins and surging data center demands. Natural gas deliverability constraints compound these risks, as key facilities depend on gas both as direct fuel and as the primary source of regional electricity generation. This paper recommends extending defense-critical electric infrastructure designations to industrial nodes, creating dedicated permitting and finance pathways to facilitate energy production, and integrating energy resilience into supply chain risk assessments.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Sustainability, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Global Focus

122. Using Minerals and Energy to Rebuild the U.S.-South Africa Relationship

Author:
Gracelin Baskaran
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The United States is quietly losing access to the minerals that underpin its defense systems, semiconductor manufacturing, and reindustrialization agenda—not through geopolitical confrontation, but through commercial neglect. South Africa is the dominant U.S. supplier of platinum group metals, chromium, manganese, and military-grade vanadium, and no allied nation comes close to matching its combination of mineral wealth, processing capacity, and technical expertise. Yet rising energy costs and crumbling infrastructure are pushing South Africa’s processing sector toward closure, and without intervention, that capacity will continue migrating to China by default. As political tensions between Washington and Pretoria have intensified, it is worth remembering what is actually at stake: a supply relationship built over more than a century that would be extraordinarily costly to lose and nearly impossible to replace.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Trade, Economic Security, Semiconductors, Energy, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

123. Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine: Massive Losses and Tiny Gains for a Declining Power

Author:
Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power. Since February 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, more losses than any major power in any war since World War II. At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026. After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century. Meanwhile, Russia’s war economy is under mounting strain, with manufacturing declining, slowing growth of 0.6 percent in 2025, and no globally competitive technology firms to help drive long-term productivity.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, Intelligence, Science and Technology, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

124. Trump’s New Nuclear Architecture for Modernization and Arms Control

Author:
Heather Williams and Nicholas Adamopoulos
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Expanding upon the National Defense Strategy (NDS), Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno recently announced a new nuclear architecture “that addresses the threats of today, not those of a bygone era,” including nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) and China’s growing nuclear arsenal. Facing this increasingly volatile security environment, the United States under the Trump administration must simultaneously modernize its nuclear arsenal and pursue arms control and risk reduction measures. To deter adversaries and manage escalation especially in theater conflicts, the United States may need to diversify and expand its nuclear arsenal, including by investing in nuclear-capable standoff weapons. Following this new architecture, the administration should also continue to work toward arms control agreements with both China and Russia, including risk reduction measures, such as a Presidential Nuclear Summit.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, Modernization, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

125. The Agency of Middle Powers in a Fragmented and Polarised World

Author:
Thomas Greminger
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:
The international system is entering a period of intensified fragmentation and geopolitical polarisation. Competition among China, Russia, and the United States is reshaping the global order and redefining spheres of influence. These dynamics create both challenges and opportunities for middle powers, which must navigate contested spaces where alignment with one great power can generate tensions with others. Middle powers face a delicate balance: they seek to preserve their autonomy, influence multilateral institutions and maintain credibility in international networks, and their choices whether to align with a particular great power, hedge their international relationship bets, or engage in principled diplomacy can either stabilise fragmented regions or amplify systemic competition. Yet debates about the future of the international order tend to focus on great powers and institutional reform, leaving the behaviour of middle powers under-explored. This Policy Brief examines how middle powers can exercise strategic autonomy and influence in a fragmented world. It emphasises behaviour, relational positioning, and policy choices rather than material capacity alone by analysing how middle powers balance principles with pragmatism; manage geography and alignment; and engage in bridge-building, coalition-building, and mediation. It then assesses their capacity to stabilise regional and global orders, support multilateralism, and enhance systemic resilience.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, Polarization, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, Global Focus, and United States of America

126. Guidelines for Decarbonizing Industry in Time to Meet Global Climate Goals

Author:
Chris Bataille, Seton Stiebert, and Francis Li
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Near-term guidance for decarbonizing global industry is needed to ensure it happens on pace to meet Paris Agreement climate goals. Such insights would help industry and financial decision-makers as well as inform government policies meant to support the transition toward lower-carbon energy sources. This report combines a review of country diplomatic commitments, policies, and industrial roadmaps with decarbonization scenarios and new global modeling to suggest timelines, carbon prices, regulations, and lead markets for clean products, to replace unabated fossil fuel–powered industrial facilities and equipment with near-zero carbon emissions alternatives. It also estimates the capital and operating expenditures required, and provides policy options to support these efforts.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industry, Paris Agreement, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

127. Assessing US Government Efforts to Support Fossil Fuel–Reliant Communities

Author:
Noah Kaufman
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The decline of domestic fossil fuel production in the United States poses serious economic risks for communities that rely on fossil fuel industries for jobs and public revenues. Many of these communities lack the resources and capacity to manage those risks on their own. The absence of viable economic strategies for affected regions is a barrier to building the broad, durable coalitions needed for an equitable national transition to cleaner energy sources. President Joe Biden touted investments into fossil fuel–reliant communities as part of his administration’s broader place-based economic and climate change strategies. This study assesses those federal efforts, examining the rationale, design, and implementation status of the major programs involved.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Government, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

128. Predicting protest participation: Insights from the year before Kenya’s 2024 anti-tax demonstrations

Author:
Daniel Iberi and Kamal Yakubu
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Protests – often described as “unconventional” or “non-institutional” forms of political participation (Barnes & Kaase, 1979; Hooghe & Marien, 2013) – have increased markedly across Africa since 2010, a trend sometimes referred to as the continent’s “third wave of protests” (Mueller, 2018; Najimdeen, 2024). Protests such as South Africa’s #RhodesMustFall (2015) and #FeesMustFall (2016), Zimbabwe’s #ThisFlag protests (2016), Nigeria’s #EndSARS demonstrations (2020), and Madagascar’s 2025 demonstrations that toppled President Andry Rajoelina illustrate both the breadth and political significance of this wave (Fihlani, 2019; Lawal, 2024; Princewill, 2025). In Kenya, patterns of protest participation have evolved considerably over the past two decades. While the country has experienced repeated episodes of mass protest – most notably around contested elections in 2007, 2013, and 2017 – the character of protest activity has shifted, with recent protests increasingly centred on economic grievances, cost-of-living pressures, and perceptions of fiscal injustice rather than electoral disputes.
Topic:
Economics, Protests, Tax Systems, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

129. Democracy and its discontented: What drives demand for democracy in South Africa?

Author:
Rehan Visser
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Support for democracy rests on a range of foundations. Citizens may value democracy intrinsically, as the most legitimate form of rule regardless of outcomes, or instrumentally, as a system judged by its capacity to deliver material well-being, security, and effective governance. Understanding which of these logics predominates is central to assessing the resilience of democratic regimes. In the early years after the end of White-minority rule, South Africans were more likely than their continental peers to evaluate democracy in material terms, valuing it for what it could deliver rather than for its inherent virtues. Attitudes were closely tied to assessments of government performance and expectations of improvements in quality of life (Bratton & Mattes, 2001). As the regime matured, delivery of political goods entered the equation (Mattes, 2012). A generation after apartheid’s end, it is worth returning to this question: Is demand for democracy in South Africa still performance-driven?
Topic:
Government, Governance, Democracy, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

130. Pressure points: Africa’s health systems amid global aid contraction

Author:
Joseph Asunka, Boniface Dulani, and Kamal Yakubu
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, African governments have been compelled to reassess how best to protect hard-won public health gains while ensuring equitable and reliable care. These reassessments are taking place against a background of shifting geopolitical alignments, tightening fiscal space, and growing public expectations of quality public services. This reckoning intensified in 2025 with the disbanding of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the cancellation of major foreign-funded health programmes, effectively dismantling one of the pillars of Africa’s health-support architecture.
Topic:
Health, Foreign Aid, Social Services, Public Health, USAID, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

131. Nuclear Energy’s New Momentum: Can World Capacity Triple by 2050?

Author:
Julius Cesar Imperial Trajano
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The second Nuclear Energy Summit highlighted renewed global momentum to expand nuclear power as countries face volatile fossil-fuel supplies amid ongoing Middle East tensions. With governments pledging to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, nuclear energy is once again being positioned as a reliable low-carbon pillar of energy security. However, the speed and credibility of this expansion will ultimately depend not only on financing and technology, but also on regulatory institutions, industrial capacity, and a skilled workforce needed to govern it safely.
Topic:
Carbon Emissions, Nuclear Energy, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

132. Global Water Bankruptcy: Southeast Asia’s Water Future Is a Peace and Security Issue

Author:
Adam Hansen and Julius Cesar Imperial Trajano
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
As the world enters an era of water bankruptcy, Southeast Asia faces a future with increased competition over shared water resources. With data centres reliant on water-intensive cooling systems, adding to the region’s drivers of water insecurity, stronger multistakeholder cooperation and confidence-building measures are crucial to reduce tensions and enhance sustainable water management.
Topic:
Security, Natural Resources, Water, Peace, Competition, and Data Centers
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

133. Food Security in ASEAN’s 2026 Agenda: Perspectives on Human Security and Inclusiveness Amidst Crises

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Kayven Tan, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Farmers form the backbone of ASEAN agriculture but are increasingly vulnerable amidst crises and longer-term structural challenges, including ageing, urbanisation, and natural disasters. A human security approach that prioritises these vulnerabilities is integral to resilience.
Topic:
Agriculture, Natural Disasters, Urbanization, Food Security, Human Security, ASEAN, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Asia and Global Focus

134. The UN Climate Regime and the US Withdrawal

Author:
Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Trump administration announced the US withdrawal from the international climate regime earlier this year. One possible explanation lies in the growing influence of the IPCC’s scientific authority in domestic spheres, which may have altered the perceived costs and benefits of continued participation. Despite the US absence, the UNFCCC remains an important platform for international climate cooperation.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

135. Securing ASEAN’s Food Resilience Amidst the Middle East Conflict

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Kayven Tan, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Middle East conflict is set to have a double-whammy impact on both ASEAN’s import of fertilisers, and its energy-intensive fertiliser production. The timing is critical as in the coming months, the five major crops, including rice, are being planted in ASEAN.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, Resilience, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Middle East and Asia

136. Effective Sustainable Development

Author:
Barry Buzan
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
How can we make the concept of sustainable development more effective? Finding a pathway towards effective sustainable development (ESD) becomes more urgent as global warming specifically, and the Anthropocene crisis generally, intensify. It helps to take a long view of development and its role in global society (the anthroposphere) before focusing on what characteristics ESD needs to have.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Anthropocene, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Asia

137. Emerging Challenges and Opportu-Nities in Humanitarian Assistance in Mozambique: A Case Study from Cabo Delgados

Author:
Fátima Chimarizeni Papelo
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
This paper aims to analyze the emerging challenges and opportuni-ties derived from the humanitarian assistance actions applied in Cabo Del-gado in the context of violent extremism that has been ravaging the province since 2017. This topic is relevant because the traditional concept of huma-nitarian assistance presupposes support for victims of a disaster caused by nature or man-made, and the province of Cabo Delgado presents a growing demand for humanitarian assistance due to the ongoing prolonged violent conflict. In Cabo Delgado, there are victims of a violent, unconventional, low-intensity conflict. More than 1 million people are in need of humanita-rian assistance, of which more than 50% are women and children (OCHA 2021). Along with terrorism, climate disasters, such as Cyclone Keneth in 2019, and the COVID-19 Pandemic, which began affecting Mozambique in 2020, are exacerbating the state of vulnerability of humanitarian victims. Combined, these events force non-state humanitarian actors to operate in an environment characterized by uncertainty, insecurity, and unpredictability. Nevertheless, these humanitarian actors may operate beyond what is defined by traditional humanitarian principles, which concern saving lives and allevia-ting the suffering of humanitarian victims, including developmental actions that may result in the reduction of state power in the humanitarian space and that lead to the implementation of political action by external forces. If prolonged, this scenario may accentuate the weakening of state power. Given this context, one wonders what challenges and opportunities are derived from the humanitarian support process in Cabo Delgado. This paper seeks to reflect on the emerging challenges and oppor-tunities arising from the humanitarian assistance process in Cabo Delgado. Specifically, it sought to a) define what humanitarian assistance is; b) analyze the emerging challenges for humanitarian actors in Cabo Delgado; and c) analyze the emerging opportunities for humanitarian actors within the pro-cess of humanitarian assistance in the region. We started from the hypothesis that the problem of the humanitarian assistance process in the context of violent extremism creates emerging challenges and opportunities for non--state humanitarian actors that are linked to human security, management, and coordination of humanitarian actions.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Armed Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgados

138. Situation Analysis of the Chissano Government: Domestic Transitions and Economic Pragmatism in Mozam-Bique (1986–2004)

Author:
Ercilio Neves Brandao Langa
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
This article analyzes the political situation of Mozambique during Chissano’s Government between 1986 and 2005, as well as the internal and external factors that contributed to the fulfillment or unfulfillment of the government’s objectives. Political, economic, and historical events are observed in order to evaluate the Chissano Government. Situation analysis is a plural methodology that allows interpreting events, facts, and causes, as well as describing the behavior of the actors involved, the correlations of force, and the internal and external interests that influence the course of politics. Another aspect that justifies using this tool is the historical time involved – 18 years between the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century – characterized by transformations, transitions, and dis-tinct domestic, regional, and international political-economic changes. The situation analysis proved to be an effective tool to reach a broader and deeper perspective of the Chissano Government and the national and international context in which it developed. This methodology requires historical knowle-dge of the object of study, its context and political dynamics, the organization of local society, its behavior patterns and social values, as well as its politi-cal groups, their objectives, and interests. The text constitutes a subjective perspective, a point of view on the “Chissano era”, a political, economic, and social period in the history of Mozambique. It is an ex-post-facto analysis, as it is written decades after the events have occurred, and although it limits its scope to a short period of time, it nonetheless covers long and complex socio-economic transformations. Despite systemic changes in Mozambican society, the structure of the country’s politics has remained almost the same, led by the party-state.
Topic:
History, Economy, Domestic Politics, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

139. The Evolution of Un Peace Operations from a Human Security Perspective: The Dilemma in the Issue of Western Sahara

Author:
Guilherme Moreira Dias, José Maria Sydow de Barros, and Túlio Pires Barboza
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The question of Western Sahara, “Africa’s last colony”, is quite pecu-liar in the context of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, when compared to other ongoing missions, and it is also quite unique from a geo-political point of view since the international community differs regarding this territory (Barros 2020).In this context, this article seeks to address the following issue: why didn’t the evolution of UN peace operations, which occurred after the expan-sion of the international security agenda and the emergence of the concept of human security, provide any significant change in the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO)? We will consider the hypothesis that, although there is a consensus at the international level on the importance of the concept of human security, there has been no significant change in MINURSO’s mandate, such as the incorporation of new assign-ments, due to Morocco’s close relationship with some permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), namely France and the United States.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Human Security
Political Geography:
Africa and Western Sahara

140. Contemporary Terrorism: A Theoretical Perspective

Author:
Yoslán Silverio González
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Studying the impact of terrorism on international relations is of vital importance due to the implications not only local and regional but also within the international system. The phenomenon of terrorism is not exclusive to a region or a country, it can affect everyone in indirect ways. In this sense, it crosses borders and does not understand nationalities. The most dangerous thing is the treatment given to it in international forums, multilateral orga-nizations, and the media since it is presented as a threat to security, but to legitimize military actions by Western powers or to delegitimize governments “not prone to the West”.This article is based on a conceptual proposal that helps to understand the phenomenon of terrorism from a non-Western perspective, criticizing the positions of the United States in this regard. The main objective is to deepen the debate around the concept of terrorism, its erroneous link to Islam, and to nationalist and/or revolutionary movements. It is also pertinent to see how it has been legally defined by international law, through resolutions, conventions, and protocols of different multilateral organizations, including the African Union (AU).
Topic:
International Relations, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Global South, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

141. Asia’s Growing Global Influence: A Study of India’s Africa Policy

Author:
Hamdy A. Hassan
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The 21st century could become an Asian and African century, which will result in a radical global transformation of the world. Thus, the past decade has witnessed a large Asian presence in Africa, especially, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Not surprisingly that the rise of Asia in global politics has worried the traditional Western powers. Analyzing contemporary Asian approaches to Africa should be performed through their historical contexts, in particular the history of competition and rivalry between Asian rising powers. It is no secret that this point has not been adequately addres-sed in previous studies on African-Asian relations (Iwata 2019). This state of rivalry is reflected in the African policies of major Asian countries. For example, the Sino-Indian conflict and the Sino-Japanese conflict, in addition to the Taiwan issue, have definitely affected these countries’ interactions with Africa. In contrast to European policies towards Africa after the founding of the European Union, there is no consensus framework for Asian international relations. The experience of struggle against colonialism and engagement in the Non-Aligned Movement represented the most prominent components of the mutual relations between Asia and Africa, especially since the Ban-dung Conference in 1955 (Adem 2017). When the Cold War ended, Asian countries began to achieve high and rapid rates of economic development. Hence, the Asian countries that previously received development aid have become among the most important international donors. This means that the concept of “donor powers” has undergone a major change that it is not limited to Western industrialized countries (including Japan). Perhaps all of this requires studying and analyzing Asian-African relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Global South, Donors, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Africa and India

142. Monitoring Report | Public consultation in Albania: The illusion of inclusion

Author:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
The Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM) has released a new report: Public Consultation in Albania: The Illusion of Inclusion. This report presents the results of an in-depth monitoring of 50 laws, public policies, and strategic documents consulted by the central government during the years 2022-2023. The assessment covers 10 key government institutions, evaluating their public consultation processes in terms of: Transparency and accessibility of consultation documents; Effectiveness of the public consultation process; Public accountability during this process; Citizen participation in consultations; Ensuring inclusivity and non-discrimination. In addition to the qualitative analysis of public consultation previously conducted by IDM, this assessment for the first time provides statistical data related to this important governance process. The evaluation system applied in this report provides the opportunity to compare institutions’ performance in the consultation of different acts, in relation to the aforementioned principles. Ultimately, the findings highlight a ‘’long distance’’ between transparency and participation in government consultations. The goal of this study is to contribute to evidence-based advocacy for legal reforms and the improvement of institutional practices, so that public consultations fulfill their core function – citizens’ participation and impact in decision-making.
Topic:
Transparency, Inclusion, Monitoring, and Civic Space
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Albania

143. Military Implications of PLA Aircraft Incursions in Taiwan’s Airspace 2024

Author:
Cheng-kun Ma and K. Tristan Tang
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In 2024, the number of days and sorties involving Chinese military aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line reached a peak, but the total sorties of Chinese aircraft around Taiwan and the number of peak incursion periods were not significantly higher than in 2023. While the number of Chinese military aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s airspace has surged, the operational capacity of the PLA Eastern Theater Command Air Force is likely already at its maximum peacetime readiness level. The sharp increase in Chinese military aircraft incursions targeting Taiwan is not solely aimed at President Ching-te Lai but also reflects changes in the scope and intensity of the PLA’s training and exercises around Taiwan. Unless new airbases are constructed or logistical support capabilities are significantly improved within the PLA Eastern Theater Command, the number of sorties into Taiwan’s airspace is unlikely to increase substantially in 2025.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Air Force, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

144. Dreams Deferred in Xi’s New Year’s Speech

Author:
Arran Hope
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Xi Jinping’s New Year’s speech hinted at weaknesses in the People’s Republic of China. The speech emphasized the many hardships that people are currently facing at home while acknowledging fears about a turbulent external environment. Xi did not mention “national rejuvenation” and he conceded that the “China dream” was far from being realized. Doubling down on the ideology of struggle, a hard work ethic, and enforcing nationalist sentiment as crucial factors for escaping the current malaise, Xi’s speech suggested a shortage of tangible solutions for the country’s problems.
Topic:
Politics, Ideology, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

145. Untangling the Transatlantic Knot: Germany, France, and the United States

Author:
Gesine Weber and Jacob Ross
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
France’s and Germany’s reactions to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reveal their significantly different relationships with the United States. Their interpretations regarding the European security architecture are almost diametrically opposed. While Berlin concluded that European security must be constructed transatlantically, Paris saw confirmation of its interpretation that Europeans must be able to address security challenges independently of Washington. Donald Trump’s reelection constitutes a challenge for the two countries because both need to fundamentally rethink their respective relationships with the United States and Europe-US relations more generally. The scope of the US withdrawal from European security remains to be seen, but it will be similarly challenging for Paris and Berlin.
Topic:
NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

146. China: From Systemic Rival to Systemic Threat

Author:
Andrew Small and Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
For the United States and Europe, dealing with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now a challenge of such wide-ranging nature that it will cut across almost the entire transatlantic agenda of the incoming Trump administration. From addressing Beijing’s role as the “decisive enabler” for Russia’s war of aggression to rethinking the way that US-EU trade and technology ties need to be organized, China policy no longer occupies a separate silo but conditions every element of the security and economic landscape. Under the Biden administration, Europe and the United States undertook an unprecedented effort not only to coordinate their approaches to the PRC itself, but also to advance on other fronts where the China challenge was the main motivating factor, such as EU-US efforts to negotiate agreements on steel, aluminum, and critical minerals. The two sides’ analysis has grown much closer, and in some areas, this translated into tangible results—whether conveying common red lines to Beijing on the delivery of lethal aid to Moscow and the use of force against Taiwan or tightening controls on advanced semiconductor equipment exports. Overall, however, progress still fell short of the high stakes. Some EU member states treated the Biden administration’s partner-friendly approach as a holiday from difficult strategic choices on China rather than an optimal window in which to make them. EU-level efforts to build more effective approaches on economic security, trade defense, and cyber security were often slow-rolled or undercut by major capitals. There were also areas in which the Biden administration allowed domestic political considerations to undermine efforts to build a common strategic economic approach among US partners—particularly the use of national security tools against US allies, whether the blocking of Nippon’s takeover of US Steel or the initial retention (and suspension rather than lifting) of Section 232 tariffs against the EU. While the two sides are certainly more closely aligned and better coordinated, moving in the right direction is no longer enough. If Europe and the United States are unable to achieve results in several critical areas in the next few years, it will come at a growing cost to their security and economic interests, as well as to the broader transatlantic relationship. Success, on the other hand, would put a new set of foundations under it. Three issues are likely to loom over the agenda for the incoming Trump administration: the threat of the “Second China Shock” to US and European industry; Beijing’s deepening coordination with Russia and other authoritarian states; and intensifying PRC pressure on Taiwan.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

147. Reflections on WTO Reform: Lecture series by Ignacio Garcia Bercero

Author:
Ignacio Garcia Bercero
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This special edition of our Expert Analysis presents four lectures (edited for publication) on World Trade Organization reform delivered by the author at LSE IDEAS during June-November 2022 and concluding in May 2023. The paper ends on a postscript reflecting on the perspectives on the different issues discussed in the lectures following the outcome of the 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO in February-March 2024, as well as the November 2024 re-election of Donald Trump—on the basis of a disruptive trade policy agenda.
Topic:
Reform, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and WTO
Political Geography:
Global Focus

148. Lift the Sanctions: The Principal Danger in Syria Today is Instability

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
The most critical international security goal regarding Syria today is the country’s stabilization – and that requires immediate and substantial aid and sanction relief. The question on which recognition of the new government should most hinge is whether it can achieve sovereign authority in the country and do so without the type of human rights abuses or cross-border militancy that pose a threat to regional peace. Given the urgency of stabilizing the country, the new government provisionally meets this criteria. Should it change course and pose a threat to regional peace, the international community can adjust policy accordingly. Two outstanding challenges to sovereignty and legitimacy are the presence of foreign troops – Israeli, Turkish, and US – and the status of Kurdish areas. Especially acute is the triangular relationship among Damascus, Ankara, and Syria’s Kurdish community, which is among the issues addressed in this viewpoint. As for foreign troops: 15,000-20,000 currently occupy the country. Affirming Syrian sovereignty entails expeditiously withdrawing all those forces not explicitly invited by the new government. A related concern is the remnants of the Islamic State (ISIL) in Syria, including the 40,000+ cadre, family members, and displaced persons interned in camps run by the Kurdish authorities. Going forward, the task of managing and combating IS remnants on Syrian territory should fall to Damascus, acting together with Kurdish and foreign partners as it sees fit. The threat that IS affiliates and aspirants pose to the United States and the broader international community have been and are most effectively addressed through measure of homeland security and law enforcement. Securing the US homeland does not require the ongoing deployment of US troops in Syria, which would inadvertently undermine the legitimacy of the new government.
Topic:
International Security, Sanctions, Syrian War, and Instability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

149. Shipment of a Controlled Vacuum Furnace to North Korea via Multiple States: An HS Code Case Study

Author:
David Albright
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
In tracking trade data and trade flows, Harmonized System (HS) codes are routinely used to aid searches for dual-use commodities and to help guide the identification of dual-use items that require a license or greater scrutiny. A recurring concern is shipper falsification of HS codes to evade detection or payment of duties. An illustration of such falsifications is a case we learned about via government sources from around 2022 that involved North Korea and a dual-use vacuum furnace suitable for uranium melting that wound its way from Spain to North Korea, via Mexico, South Africa, and China. Such a furnace is typically controlled under the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) Part 2 list and is banned for export to North Korea under United Security Council resolutions. This type of furnace is a mainstay of a nuclear weapons program, particularly one that uses weapon-grade uranium as the nuclear explosive material, as North Korea is known to do. With North Korea expanding its uranium enrichment program and producing greater quantities of weapon-grade uranium, this new furnace would be especially important.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Trade, and Dual Use Items
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

150. New Information on Shenyang Machine Tool Company’s Illicit Sales to North Korea and Russia

Author:
David Albright and Spencer Faragasso
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Several years ago, the Institute reported about the relatively large, multinational Chinese company Shenyang Machine Tools Company supplying sophisticated computer numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools, equipped with Western controlled software, to North Korea in violation of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions and a supplier country’s trade control laws that banned re-export of this software. New information details the disingenuous way in which the Chinese government investigated this case, indicating nonetheless inadvertently that North Korea received these machine tools, while also demonstrating China’s utter disregard for enforcing UNSC sanctions or its own or others’ export control laws. This case serves as another of the many cases highlighting China as a long-time irresponsible trading partner that responsible companies should avoid when sensitive dual-use goods are involved, lest they be complicit in outfitting North Korea’s, Iran’s, or Russia’s military programs. Today, responsible suppliers are inadvertently facilitating Russia’s prosecution of an illegal war against Ukraine. Given Shenyang Machine Tools Company’s recent exports of goods to Russia with Harmonized Shipments (HS) codes found on the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Common High Priority List (CHPL), this company should be considered for sanctions.
Topic:
Sanctions, Trade, Illegal Trade, and Shenyang Machine Tool Company
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and North Korea