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57041. Trade Policy Options for Chile: A Quantitative Evaluation

Author:
Glenn W. Harrison and Thomas F. Rutherfod
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
This paper examines the net economic benefits and government revenue implications for Chile of forming a free trade area with MERCOSUR as an associate member, forming a free trade area with NAFTA, and reducing its external tariff multilaterally and unilaterally. The research shows that NAFTA would benefit Chile, but Chile must obtain improved access in non-grain crops, one of its key export sectors, or NAFTA will result in losses for Chile. Chile will lose from the MERCOSUR agreement as presently constituted but can gain from participation in MERCOSUR by reducing its external tariff to between 6 percent and 8 percent. Such a lowering of the external tariff would lead to a reduction of costly, trade-diverting imports (on which Chile does not collect tariffs) from high-priced partner country suppliers. The paper indicates that Chile should continue to push for NAFTA membership, while moving toward broader multilateral trade liberalization. Additionally, collecting the value added tax at more uniform rates in Chile would reduce domestic distortions and enhance the effectiveness of trade policy reforms.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance

57042. Privatization and Regulation: Lessons from Argentina and Chile

Author:
Luigi Manzetti
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Some economists have argued that before governments privatize state-owned monopolies in public utilities, they should first try to promote competition. If this is not done, privatization does not produce gains in economic efficiency; instead, it fosters rent-seeking behavior by the new private ownership. Few empirical analyses of rent-seeking behavior for Latin America in post-privatization environments have been done — those that exist concentrate on economic issues and neglect important political motivations. The purpose of this paper is to fill that gap and address key issues of public policy by examining the cases of Chile and Argentina and providing a political explanation for why the Chilean and Argentine governments allowed rent-seeking behavior in important public utility markets. Based upon an analysis of these experiences, the paper then discusses the types of institutions most likely to avoid such negative consequences.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Political Economy

57043. Private Investment as a Financing Source for Microcredit

Author:
Carter Garber
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In this paper, economist and development finance consultant Carter Garber examines the process of complementing donations and commercial bank credit with private investments as a source of capital for international microenterprise finance. First, he describes the large expectations for private capital in the rapid growth of microenterprise finance. Second, Garber discusses the varied sources of private capital, especially those involving socially responsible investment. The third and central section is an examination of eight “socially responsible investment” mechanisms that currently channel $27 million of U.S. private credit to microfinance lending institutions. Garber demonstrates the variety of available mechanisms and examines their track record to date. The final section identifies policy changes that will be necessary for these types of private investment in microenterprise to grow fast enough to meet the expected demand during the coming decade.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance

57044. The New National Security Environment and its Impact on the Civilic-Military Relations in Bulgaria

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Civil-military relations as one of the indicators and factors for the consolidat ion of democracy in the national and international societies are undergoing deep - in some cases, or more gradual changes - in others. The absence of a univers al theory of how the relations between civil society and its military should loo k like is no reason to neglect the various sources of transformation in the civi l-military relations' field: First, the changing mission of the democratic military in the post-Cold War era; Second, the high-tech and especially the infotech revolutions that change largel y the roles of the military profession and its missions; Third, the social processes of the less developed South, or the so called "third " or "developing world" and, Fourth, the democratic transitions in the postcommunist or rather post-totalitar ian socialist world. Bulgaria is subjected to deep systemic social changes as a former totalitarian s ocialist society and state. At the same time the post-Cold War global, regional and sub-regional security situation strongly, and in some cases even decisively , motivates the national security and the more general social transformations an d adaptations. Bulgarian society and its military component cannot be isolated from the revolutionary technological and especially information technological ch anges - another major factor of understanding the complexity of the present situ ation in this country and in its armed forces.
Topic:
National Security, Military Affairs, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:
Europe and Bulgaria

57045. NATO Enlargement: Two Looks from Outside

Author:
Laszlo Nagy and Valeri Ratchev
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Bulgaria’s missing institutional or effective bilateral contact pillars of national security, the conscientious alienation of Bulgaria by Russia and the treatment of the country by the west as a partner of secondary or even lesser importance endangers the very integrity of the Bulgarian society, the security of the Balkan subregion as well as the stability of Europe in general. Bulgaria desperately needs an anchor for its national security system and Laszlo Nagy’s and Valeri Ratchev’s considerations add importantly for the clarification of the issue. This Research Report is a part of the research activity of ISIS of openly and honestly assessing the needs, interests and the possible solutions of the Bulgarian national security dilemmas in the context of an All-European system of cooperation and stability.
Topic:
NATO, International Cooperation, National Security, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Bulgaria

57046. America's New Deal with Europe: NATO Primacy and Double Expansion

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Including analysis relevant to the 2022 Ukraine crisis, this article addresses NATO expansion, burdensharing, the Balkans crisis, and relations with Russia and Germany. The American debate and public opinion regarding NATO enlargement is reviewed as well.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Balkans, North America, and United States of America

57047. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

57048. Time to End the Certification Circus

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
More than a decade ago, the U.S. Congress established a procedure whereby each year the president must “certify” that a given country is cooperating with us in the eradication of drug production and trafficking. Governments that lag behind, show little enthusiasm for our crusade, or are found colluding with narco-lords are subject to sanctions. Those “decertified” are denied foreign assistance, as well as U.S. votes for loans at the international financial institutions. Such countries–or, rather, our investors in their countries–also become ineligible for premiums from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Narcotics Trafficking, and Drugs
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

57049. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America

57050. Arms Sales: An Old Issue Revisited

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
06-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Is the United States on the verge of pushing the major Latin American countries into a new arms race? Time seems to think so, to judge by a long article in the April 14 issue. Subtitled “the inside story of how the Pentagon and big defense contractors got the President to open the way for weapons sales to Latin America,” Time claims to provide the background to the Clinton administration’s current review of arms transfer policy. In so doing, the article revives an old controversy, namely, what role the United States plays (or should play) in the acquisition (or denial) of expensive military hardware, particularly to countries that lie within its own sphere of influence and, in the opinion of arms control experts, humanitarians, and journalists, “don’t need weapons at all.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Latin America

57051. Mexico’s Midterm Elections: A Major Turning Point?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
07-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On July 6, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a new Chamber of Deputies, renew a quarter of the Senate, and choose governors and legislators in six states. They will also have the opportunity to elect–for the first time–the governor of Mexico City, a position that, until now, has been appointive rather than elected. These races amount to both a midterm referendum on the stewardship of President Ernesto Zedillo and a crucial test of his ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Elections, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

57052. Argentina: Another Round at the Polls

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
This month President Clinton visits Argentina, a major South American country that in recent years has become one of our most valued and trusted Latin allies. His presence there will underscore the special relationship that President Carlos Sal Menem has forged with the United States, a relationship that is a mirror image of Argentina’s historic antagonism toward Washington and all its works. Clinton’s presence will also highlight Argentina’s significant victories in the economic field–in the war against inflation, in the struggle to reestablish creditworthiness, and, above all, in its efforts to attract significant new foreign investment from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The visit precedes by about ten days an important midterm election, which in all probability will determine the political lineup for that country’s 1999 presidential election. In this regard, the most important development has been the creation of a multiparty coalition, the Alliance, which will be running joint lists against the candidates of Menem’s own Peronist Party. If the Peronists hold their own on October 26, Menem will be tempted to make a bid for an unprecedented third term. If they are soundly defeated, the struggle for succession within Peronism will begin the morning after. But a victory for the Alliance by no means clearly points the way for the opposition, which is beset by profound divisions of its own. This vagueness makes these elections a particularly interesting lens through which to view Argentina’s continuing evolution.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

57053. Who’s Afraid of Big Bad Brazil?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On his trip to South America last month, President Clinton made quite a splash in Brazil. After starting off badly–dodging a torrent of manure thrown at his motorcade–he ended the week with the local media singing his praises. The secret of his success? The president (a quick study if there ever was one) immediately grasped that the best way to get along with Brazilians was to repeat back to them–with redoubled enthusiasm–what they told him about themselves. Thus, by the time Clinton had been in the country for thirty-six hours, he was expressing his conviction that Brazil, together with the United States, would lead the hemisphere in the twenty-first century. He also went out of his way to insist on his support for Mercosur, a subregional trade agreement-cum-political alliance of whose existence Clinton was probably only peripherally aware before his trip. In so doing, he seemed to be writing off an entire continent to the Brazilian sphere of influence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Politics, and Reform
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and United States of America

57054. Organizing Diversity: Evolutionary Theory, Network Analysis, & Postsocialist Transformations

Author:
Gernot Grabher and David Stark
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
In contrast to the dominant transition framework that examines organizational forms in Eastern Europe according to the degree to which they conform to or depart from the blueprints of already existing capitalisms, this essay exam ines the innovative character. born of necessity. in whicb actors in the postsocialist setting are restructured by re defining and recombining resources. Instead of conceiving these recombinations as accidental aberrations. it explores their evolutionary potentials. Its starting premise is that the actual unit of entrepreneurshp is not the isolated indi vidual personality but the social networks that link firms and the actors within them. Drawing on recent develop ments in evolutionary theory. it cautions that although all-encompassing privatization and marketization might fos ter adaptation in the short run. the consequent loss of organizational diversity will impede adaptability in the long run. *This essay was written while David Stark was a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences sup­ported by grants from the National Science Foundation #SES-9022192 and from the U.S. Department of State Title VIII Funds Grant #1006-304101. Our thanks to Bill Barnett, Pascal Boyer, Geoff Fougere, Istvan Gabor, Szabolcs Kemeny, Ger ald McDermott, and Monique Djokic Stark for their criticisms of an earlier draft. Address correspondence to David Stark Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, 202 Junipero Serra Blvd., Stanford CA 94305 (or to stark@casbs. stanford.edu).
Topic:
Diversity, Network Analysis, Post-Communism, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

57055. The Break-Up of Czechoslovakia: The Impact of Party Development on the Separation of the State

Author:
Abby Innes
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
When Czechoslovakia separated into two independent republics on January 1, 1993, it was hailed as the "velvet divorce." Relief that a European "ethnic" conflict had been resolved without physical aggression was apparently so deep as to have blunted curiosity about the real issues underlying the conflict. This paper looks back into the file and, in particular, explores the impact of party political developments on efforts to mediate some form of constitutional compromise. The analysis is not intended as an account of the separation (which would necessarily delve deep into historical, cultural, and economic questions). The more specific aim is to consider the issues and institutional pressures that dominated party development between 1989 and 1993, and to evaluate their contribution to the split. The article concludes that the profoundly unpopular decision to separate the country emanated from irreconcilable views on the correct "transition" path rather than a deeply rooted nationalism on either side. Moreover, both Czech and Slovak electorates were, to a striking degree, "held hostage" to party choices of economic policy and a common state, presented as mutually exclusive possibilities.
Topic:
Politics, Ethnicity, Political Parties, and Post-Communism
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Czechoslovakia

57056. Gross Human Rights Violations in 1994

Author:
Brigitte Hamm
Publication Date:
12-1996
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Leaving theoretical questions aside, the measurement of human rights is often considered to be appropriate in evaluating a country's human rights situation. Such data are used as an auxiliary tool of exogenous pressure, which is known as political conditionality whereby aid is related to specific political practices. Often human rights organizations of the South ask for the instrument of political conditionality against repressive regimes. However, exogenous pressure directed mainly towards elections and the respect for political human rights may be criticized as a kind of imperialistic attitude, trying to implement Western values in Non-Western societies.
Topic:
Development, Human Rights, Politics, Terrorism, and Conditionality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

57057. The Honecker Trial: The East German Past and the German Future

Author:
A. James McAdams
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Fifty years after the Nuremberg tribunals, Germany is once again caught up in a series of controversial trials involving former dictators. This time officials of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) sit in the dock. Some observers have criticized these proceedings, maintaining that they will result in the imposition of an arbitrary form of 'victor's justice.' Others have claimed, in contrast, that the cumbersome German Rechtsstaat ('state under the law') will prove incapable of responding to public demands for retribution. In this paper the author maintains that Germany's courts have not been at a loss to answer these complaints. By grounding their judgments in preexisting East German law, the courts have managed to bring some of the GDR's former leaders to justice while at the same time guaranteeing most defendants the full protections of the rule of law. In the process the courts have even conveyed an important message about the terms under which both German populations will be brought back together again.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Social Movement, and Transitional Justice
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and East Germany

57058. The Political Economy of Distributional Equity in Comparative Perspective

Author:
Kwan S. Kim
Publication Date:
03-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Growing income inequality within a country is caused by socioeconomic factors and inadequate government policies and ultimately leads to social and political instabilities. The ideology of supply-side economics in the United States and the United Kingdom during the 1980s, for instance, induced policies of inequality which were then perceived as a way to stimulate economic growth. The demise of East European socialism since the late 1980s also led many developing countries to pursue market reforms as a way to resuscitate their moribund economies. There is evidence, however, to indicate that the distribution of income in these countries is becoming more unequal with attendant and frequently grave social and political consequences.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Poverty, Inequality, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Global Focus, and United States of America

57059. German Capitalism: Does It Exist? Can It Survive?

Author:
Wolfgang Streeck
Publication Date:
03-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
In the roughly four decades between the end of the Second World War and German unification, West German society gave rise to a distinctive kind of capitalist economy, governed by nationally specific social institutions that made for high international competitiveness at high wages and, at the same time, low inequality of incomes and living standards. Already by the late 1980s, when the differences in performance and social organization between the West German economy and its main competitors came to be widely noticed, the continued economic viability of the 'German model' began to appear doubtful to many. Shortly thereafter, the survival of the German version of advanced capitalism became tied to its successful extension to the former East Germany. With the 1992 completion of the European Internal Market, it became in addition dependent on the compatibility of German economic institutions with the emerging regime of the integrated European economy.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Governance, Capitalism, Economic Growth, Social Justice, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

57060. Poverty in Latin America: Issues and New Responses-A Rapporteurs' Report

Author:
Gabriela Ippolito-O'Donnell and Brenda Markovitz
Publication Date:
03-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The Kellogg Institute hosted an academic workshop on “Poverty in Latin America: Issues and New Responses,” from 30 September to 1 October 1995. This was the third annual workshop in the series “Project Latin America 2000,” supported by The Coca-Cola Company. The workshop gathered scholars, policymakers, business and labor leaders, grassroots practitioners, and journalists from throughout the Americas to examine current trends in poverty, inequality, and employment emerging in the aftermath of structural adjustment, and to share policy experiences aimed at improving employment opportunities, organizational capabilities, and living conditions of the urban and rural poor. Vilmar Faria (Special Advisor to the President, Brazil) and Víctor Tokman (Assistant Director General and Regional Director for the Americas, International Labor Organization, Peru) organized these events. This report summarizes the academic workshop, including abstracts of each of the papers presented, the discussants’ remarks, the issues debated, and the organizers’ conclusions.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Poverty, Economic Growth, Social Justice, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America