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55351. Taiwan Strait I: What's Left of 'One China'?

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the last decade, Taiwan has moved slowly but surely away from its commitment to the idea of 'one China', the proposition, long agreed on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, that Taiwan and the mainland are parts of one country. This has led to steadily mounting tension between Taiwan and China, for both of whom the issue goes to the heart of their sense of identity. While the prospect of an outbreak of war across the Strait remains distant, action is needed by all relevant parties to contain and reverse the situation.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

55352. Sudan's Other Wars

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The two-party framework in which Sudan's peace talks are being held is not adequately addressing all the country's current armed conflicts: especially the long-running rebellions in the “Three Areas” (Abyei, the Nuba Mountains and Southern Blue Nile ) in the North, and the more recent outbreak of armed conflict in Darfur in western Sudan. The discontents in these regions have thus far largely been viewed as of secondary importance to those of the South, but they must be taken into account if a sustainable national peace agreement is to be reached. There is a real potential for those who feel ignored by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) peace process to undermine any deal that is between only the Khartoum government and the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA). It is therefore incumbent upon the IGAD mediation team and the international observer countries to ensure that the grievances driving conflict in these areas are fully dealt with in any comprehensive peace deal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Sudan and North Africa

55353. Congo Crisis: Military Intervention in Ituri

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The district of Ituri, in Oriental Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has been the theatre of spiralling violence bordering on genocide that urgently needs to be stopped. A French-led Interim Emergency Multinational Force (IEMF) is being deployed to restore peace and order in the administrative centre – Bunia – and facilitate humanitarian relief. However, this intervention, authorised by UN Security Council Resolution 1484 of 30 May 2003, is on the face of it totally insufficient.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa

55354. A Middle East Roadmap To Where?

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After several false starts, the Middle East diplomatic Quartet (composed of the U.S., the EU, the Russian Federation and the Office of the Secretary General of the UN) finally put its Roadmap to Israeli-Palestinian peace on the table on 30 April 2003. However, although the document has received widespread international endorsement, there is also widespread scepticism about its contents, about the willingness of the parties to implement its provisions and indeed of its sponsors to maintain allegiance to them.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

55355. Kosovo's Ethnic Dilemma: The Need For A Civic Contract

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A simple but effective formula exists for peace in diverse societies. It consists of a civic contract: the government recognises and supports special rights for minorities, and minorities acknowledge the authority of the government. No elements of such a contract currently exist in Kosovo. The Albanians remain reluctant to support enhanced rights for the Serb minority, and the Serb community does not recognise the authority of Kosovo's institutions. Moreover, Kosovo is not a state and the future status of the province remains unresolved. After four years of United Nations authority in Kosovo, the foundation of this civic contract and of sustainable peace has not been laid.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

55356. Aceh: Why The Military Option Still Won't Work

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In June 2001, ICG wrote of the situation in Aceh: “The military solution is certain to fail as long as the security forces are incapable of exercising the degree of control and discipline over their troops necessary to prevent behaviour that alienates ordinary Acehnese”.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

55357. Myanmar Backgrounder: Ethnic Minority

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar is one of the ethnically most diverse countries in the world and throughout its existence as an independent state has experienced a complex set of conflicts between the central government and ethnic minority groups seeking autonomy. While the world's attention for the past decade has focused on the struggle between the military government and the political opposition over national power, these underlying conflicts perhaps represent a more fundamental and intractable obstacle to peace, development and democracy.
Topic:
Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Central Asia

55358. Rwandan Hutu Rebels in the Congo: a New Approach to Disarmament and Reintegration

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While a transition government is scheduled to be installed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in June 2003, the program of the United Nations Mission in Congo (MONUC) for voluntary disarmament and demobilisation, repatriation, rehabilitation and reintegration (DDRRR, henceforth DR) of foreign armed groups has remained a failure. Authorised by Security Council mandate on 18 November 2001 to deploy in eastern Congo, MONUC has repatriated only a few hundred Rwandan ex-rebels and has opened only one demobilisation centre at Lubero in North Kivu. The participation of South African observers in the Third Party Verification Mechanism (TPVM) established by an accord between Rwanda and Congo in July 2002, has not changed anything. MONUC has still not deployed a serious force in eastern Congo or constructed a credible DR program.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

55359. Colombia and its Neighbours: The Tentacles of Instability

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While the Colombian armed conflict has deep roots in history, increasingly it is fuelled by the inflow of weapons, explosives and chemical precursors and financed by an outflow of drugs. The tentacles of instability criss-cross the 9000 kilometres of land and water that separate Colombia from and link it to its five neighbours, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, Venezuela and Panama. Those borders are largely uncontrolled, and the Colombian government has stepped up its demands for fuller regional cooperation. The neighbours are greatly reluctant, partly because of internal crises and partly because of their view of the conflict. Yet, Colombia needs more help from them to make progress in ending that conflict, while peace in Colombia would give them a better chance to solve their own serious domestic problems.
Topic:
Security and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Brazil, Colombia, South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

55360. A Marriage Of Inconvenience: Montenegro 2003

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is time for new policies and new approaches on Montenegro. International engagement with that republic in recent years has brought significant positive results. It bolstered the pro-Western government of Djukanovic when it faced the threat from Milosevic. It has helped promote reforms that have set Montenegro on the way to becoming a modern democracy, with a market economy and an independent, effective criminal justice system. However, efforts to promote regional stability have been hampered by an unnecessary obsession with keeping Montenegro and Serbia in a single state. The international community's overriding interest in the region should be to find stable, long-term solutions. Cobbling together interim solutions that lack legitimacy for those who must implement them and that are unlikely, therefore, to be functional in practice, is not the way to build stability.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Eastern Europe

55361. Central Asia: A Last Chance for Change

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Annual Meeting of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) commencing on 3 May 2003 is an opportunity to assess frankly and honestly the records of the governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. If the chance is grasped to push for reform in a more coordinated and concerted way, the controversial decision to hold this meeting in Tashkent will prove well justified. If it is not, and any impression is left that the location of the meeting is a mark of approval for Uzbekistan's current policies, there is a major risk of further deterioration in both the economic and security climate in Central Asia.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

55362. Tajikistan: A Roadmap for Development

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tajikistan's experience in ending a brutal civil war and integrating opposition factions into government has won deserved praise. Major advances have been made in security around the country, and stability has improved significantly over the past two years. Yet the economic situation remains dire; Tajikistan is one of the twenty poorest countries in the world. Widespread poverty continues to fuel a major drugtrafficking business and provides potential breeding grounds for Islamist militant or other extremist groups. There is a serious need to use development assistance to build a viable state in this geopolitically vital part of Central Asia.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Tajikistan

55363. Nepal Backgrounder: Ceasefire--Soft Landing or Strategic Pause?

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Driven by growing pressure on the battlefield, increasing international isolation and a sense that the time is ripe for political gains, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has engaged in a ceasefire with government forces since 29 January 2003. A 22- point “code of conduct” has been reached that will serve essentially as the military ground rules while peace negotiations proceed, although unfortunately each side has already accused the other of persistent violations and no strong, independent verification process is in place.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
South Asia and Nepal

55364. Angola's Choice: Reform or Regress

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
One year after more than four decades of internationally fuelled civil conflict came to an end, Angola is faced with a stark choice. If the government undertakes and sustains meaningful political and economic reforms, peace and prosperity would be assured. If it delays and obfuscates on fundamental issues of transparency, diversification and pluralism, the country will likely be condemned to further decades of poor governance and localised violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Political Economy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa

55365. Albania: State of the Nation 2003

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Political feuding virtually paralysed the Albanian government in the first half of 2002, until the European Parliament brokered an agreement between the main political parties which led to the election of retired army general Alfred Moisiu as the consensus choice for president. Although the 73-year-old Moisiu leans to the right, he has pledged to represent all Albanians equally. After a long period of confrontation, the country entered a phase of political dialogue. The opposition Democratic Party (DP) ended its boycott of local government institutions and began to work with the ruling Socialist Party (SP). In August 2002 parliament voted in a new Socialist-led government with the SP chairman, Fatos Nano, as Prime Minister for a third time. By early 2003, however, this unusual consensus appeared to have unravelled, returning politics to its more normal fractiousness. Political tensions are expected to rise as October local elections approach.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Albania

55366. Serbia After Djindjic

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The assassination of Serbian Premier Zoran Djindjic on 12 March 2003 means that Serbia has lost its most skilful and realistic politician. The great question is whether the assassination provides a catalyst that energises the governing coalition to restart the longstalled reform process and thoroughly clean out the interlocking nexus of organised crime, war criminals, and police and army officers hiding behind "nationalist-patriotic" slogans and organisations. There are some initially encouraging signs: the police appear to be energetically pursuing the prime suspects, and sweeping reforms of the military have been promised. Djindjic's successor, Zoran Zivkovic, has yet to acquire his predecessor's authority, however, and he will need encouragement . both carrots and sticks . from the international community to hold the course that should have been pursued from October 2000.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

55367. Dividing Papua: How Now To Do It

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A presidential instruction (Inpres) issued in January 2003 to divide Papua, Indonesia's easternmost province, into three parts has done more to create tension and turmoil there than any government action in years. The instruction undercuts a special autonomy law passed by the parliament in November 2001 that assumed the province to be a single territorial unit, and it has thrown Papua's administrative status into legal limbo. It undermines moderate intellectuals who saw special autonomy as a way of strengthening Papuan institutions and encouraging independence supporters to work within the Indonesian state. It has infuriated many Papuans, pro-independence and pro-autonomy alike, who have a deep attachment to Papua as a single political unit with a distinct history and who see the decree as a divide-and-rule tactic by Jakarta. All major religious leaders in the province have come out against it.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and Indonesia

55368. Pakistan: The Mullahs and the Military

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The resurgence of the religious parties in the October 2002 elections portends ill for Pakistan's political, cultural and social stability. For the first time in the country's history, an alliance of six major religious parties – the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) – has won power in two provinces, vowing to Islamise state and society through Taliban-like policies. The MMA based its electoral campaign on Islam and anti-U.S. slogans, targeting President Pervez Musharraf's pro-U.S. policies and pledging the enforcement of Sharia law. It now runs the government in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), bordering on Afghanistan, and shares power in Baluchistan.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, and Taliban

55369. Afghanistan: Women and Reconstruction

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The establishment of an Interim Administration for Afghanistan during the Bonn talks in December 2001 was heralded as offering Afghan women a chance to claim their place in public life and participate in the country's development after systemic exclusion under the Taliban. Creation of a Ministry of Women's Affairs, the commitment of substantial donor assistance to programs targeting women, and, most critically, the return of women to universities, schools, and government offices all portended a new day.
Topic:
Development, Gender Issues, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban

55370. Negotiating a Blueprint for Peace in Somalia

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The peace process in Somalia is at a critical point. Talks that began with great promise are in danger of collapsing unless the mediators, the international community and the Somali factions themselves provide stronger leadership. The Somali public's flagging interest and support for the process needs to be revived, and improvements are required in the negotiating process or the parties will be unable to tackle the many difficult outstanding issues. Unfortunately, the international community has remained reluctant to throw its full weight behind the peace talks, to take a tough line with those who are undermining it or generally to express a unified position on preferred outcomes.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
North Africa and Somalia

55371. Zimbabwe: Danger and Opportunity

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The economic meltdown, government-created food crisis, and deepening state-sponsored violence that have plagued Zimbabwe in the year since President Robert Mugabe's ruling party rigged the presidential election continue to point in one ominous direction: potential state collapse.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

55372. Radical Islam In Iraqi Kurdistan: The Mouse That Roared?

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tucked away in a handful of villages in a remote pocket of Iraqi Kurdistan, a small group of radical Islamist fighters has been accused of being the Kurdish offspring of the al-Qaeda network, and thus has become a fresh target in the international war on terrorism. To compensate for its limited reach and popularity, this group, called Ansar al-Islam (Partisans of Islam), has built on tenuous regional alliances to survive in the harsh mountainous environment above the town of Halabja in northwestern Iraq, just shy of the border with Iran. These alliances have enhanced its role as a minor spoiler in predominantly secular Kurdish politics in the Suleimaniyeh governorate.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Arabia, and Kurdistan

55373. Red Alert In Jordan: Recurrent Unrest In Maan

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In successive incidents over eight days in November 2002, the city of Maan in the south of Jordan was the scene of intense armed clashes between security forces and elements of the Maani population. What began as a routine police operation rapidly escalated into incidents in which thousands of police, soldiers, and special forces fought militants in and around the town before subduing them. The clashes left six dead, many more wounded, over 150 arrested for questioning or prosecution, and property destroyed. As of early February 2003, over 45 people remained in custody and several others were still being sought.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Government
Political Geography:
Arabia and Jordan

55374. Aceh: A Fragile Peace

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 9 December 2002, an agreement on cessation of hostilities in Aceh was concluded in Geneva, bringing hope that an end to the 26-year-old conflict between Indonesian government forces and guerrillas of the pro-independence Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka or GAM) was in sight. Since then there have been many positive developments, most strikingly, a dramatic drop in the level of violence.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Geneva, United States, Central Asia, and Indonesia

55375. Uzbekistan's Reform Program: Illusion or Reality?

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since October 2001, Uzbekistan has been a key ally of the U.S. in the military campaign in Afghanistan. A U.S. base has been established and a far-reaching Agreement on Strategic Partnership was signed in March 2002. Uzbekistan, however, sits uncomfortably in a campaign known as “Enduring Freedom.” It is one of the most authoritarian of the post-Soviet states, with a poor record on human rights and an economy that still owes much more to Soviet central planning than the market.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, and Uzbekistan

55376. A Framework For Responsible Aid To Burundi

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Within the last two months, thanks to the active engagement of the facilitation team, Burundi's peace process has exceeded expectations. Momentum has never been so strong since the civil war began ten years ago. On 3 December 2002, the transitional government led by President Buyoya signed a landmark ceasefire agreement with the Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie – Forces de défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD) of Jean- Pierre Nkurunziza. This complemented the ceasefire reached two months earlier with two minor rebel groups (the CNDD-FDD faction led by Jean-Bosco Ndayikengurukiye and the PALIPEHUTU-FNL faction led by Alain Mugabarabona). On 27 January 2003, the government and the three rebel groups signed an additional memorandum of understanding establishing a Joint Ceasefire Commission and setting a date for the return of Mugarabona and Ndayikengurukiye to Burundi. An African Union force with South African, Ethiopian and Mozambican troops is to be deployed in the next few weeks.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Burundi

55377. Dealing with Savimbi's Ghost: The Security and Humanitarian Challenges in Angola

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Emerging slowly from decades of civil war, Angola stands at a crossroads between a spectacular recovery or further cycles of instability and crisis. The government that won the fighting must now move on a number of fronts – with international support – to win the peace.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa and Angola

55378. Yemen: Coping with Terrorism and Violence in a Fragile State

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 3 November 2002, an unmanned U.S. “Predator” aircraft hovering in the skies of Yemen fired a Hellfire missile at a car carrying a suspected al- Qaeda leader, four Yemenis said to be members of the Aden-Abyan Islamic Army, and a Yemeni- American who, according to U.S. authorities, had recruited volunteers to attend al-Qaeda training camps. All six occupants were killed. Almost two months later, three American missionaries were shot and killed in the Yemeni city of Jibla. These incidents, only the latest in a series involving Yemen, reinforced its image as a weak and lawless state with porous borders, a sanctuary for al-Qaeda operatives, a country with tenuous government control over vast parts of its territory and dominated by a culture of kidnappings and endemic violence. The October 2000 attack on the USS Cole, the arrest earlier in 2002 of several Yemenis in the United States and Pakistan suspected of membership in the al-Qaeda network, the capture of Ramzi bin al-Shibah, a Yemeni citizen accused of being a key plotter of the 11 September 2001 attacks in the U.S., and the attack on the French oil tanker Limburg in October 2002 have all contributed to this perception. Indeed, during the past year, the U.S. has sent special forces to Yemen and neighbouring countries, with the purpose of pursuing presumed members of the al-Qaeda network and associated organisations in Yemen.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Yemen, and Arabia

55379. Afghanistan: Judicial Reform and Transitional Justice

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Afghanistan's legal system has collapsed. Never strong to begin with, it has been nearly destroyed by 23 years of conflict and misrule. There are few trained lawyers, little physical infrastructure and no complete record of the country's laws. Under successive regimes, laws have been administered for mostly political ends with few protections of the rights of individuals to a fair trial. Although the country has signed up to most international agreements on human rights, abuses have been widespread, and military commanders have enjoyed impunity.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

55380. The Kivus: The Forgotten Crucible of the Congo Conflict

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
December 2002 witnessed the signing of a power sharing agreement between Congolese parties under the auspices of the UN Special Envoy, Mustapha Niasse, and South Africa that should lead to finalisation of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue and a transitional government. Yet, it is unlikely that the agreement alone will bring immediate peace. Serious fighting continues in Eastern Congo, particularly Kivu and Ituri Provinces, which have been the main theatres for direct and proxy confrontation between local, national and regional participants in the Congolese conflict since the cease-fire was signed in Lusaka in 1999. The population there is suffering enormously while there is an almost complete absence of international attention.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Lusaka

55381. The Continuing Challenge Of Refugee Return In Bosnia Herzegovina

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In preparing for and orchestrating the proximity talks that marked the end of the 1992-1995 war in Bosnia Herzegovina (BiH), the authors of the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) placed a particularly high priority on the return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their pre-war homes. Annex 7 of the DPA is devoted entirely to ensuring the right of return. The peacemakers hoped that such return might one day reverse the territorial, political and national partition of the country that the DPA otherwise recognised.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

55382. Sudan's Oilfields Burn Again: Brinkmanship Endangers The Peace Process

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan's peace process survived a major challenge in the first weeks of the new year. Indeed, signature by the parties of a strengthened cessation of hostilities agreement on 4 February and a memorandum of understanding codifying points of agreement on outstanding issues of power and wealth sharing two days later indicates that the momentum to end the twenty-year old conflict is strong. However, the crisis produced by a government-sponsored offensive in the Western Upper Nile oilfields at the end of 2002 and through January raised questions about the Khartoum government's commitment to peace and showed that much more attention needs to be paid to pro-government southern militias and the commercial and political agendas for which they are being used.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Sudan and North Africa

55383. Through the Fog of Peace Building: Evaluating the Reconstruction of Afghanistan

Author:
Barnett Rubin, Abby Stoddard, and Humayan Hamidzada
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
A year and a half after the defeat of the Taliban, anger is rising in Afghanistan at the slow pace of reconstruction. Success in reconstruction means meeting goals, not fulfilling pledges or being generous. The overriding goal is enabling Afghans to build a country that contributes to, rather than threatens, their own and global security. As the government of Afghanistan becomes better organized and articulates both this goal and what is needed to reach it more clearly, it has become evident that donors underestimated the amount of assistance required. Initial pledges fell short even of underestimates of the needs and were far less than in other comparable cases. Initial disbursements, which in past cases have always exceeded subsequent ones, came relatively quickly and nearly met pledges, as donors have highlighted (see figure 1). But most of these disbursements went for emergency humanitarian needs, not reconstruction. Implementation of those reconstruction projects that have been funded has been exceedingly slow, leaving little to show on the ground. As of May 2003, donors reported that in 17 months they had completed reconstruction projects with a total expenditure of only $191 million, out of $2.1 billion pledged to reconstruction for the first twelve months. Furthermore, according to Afghan government figures, only 16 percent of the total disbursements (including for humanitarian purposes) had passed through channels controlled by the struggling Afghan government and had thus failed to build that government's capacity or legitimacy. The pervasive insecurity outside of Kabul prevented implementation of major projects and sapped the public's confidence in the new authorities. Failure to strengthen the government and provide security will doom the reconstruction effort even if contributions increase. The government has articulated an ambitious policy framework for reconstruction and asked for both reconstruction and security assistance. Success is possible, and at a modest cost. Failure by the US and other major states to respond will doom Afghanistan, the region, and the world to a repetition of anarchy that gave birth to the Taliban and refuge to al-Qaida.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban

55384. The Politics of Center-Periphery Relations in Afghanistan

Author:
Barnett Rubin and Helena Malikyar
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
The relationship of the central government of Afghanistan to the other units of government is in many ways a proxy for the relationship of state to society. It would not be so if the state were more institutionalized and in control of the territory and population of the country. But the current situation, where the direct administrative control of the government is largely limited to the capital city and environs, and in which the government relies on international support (“foreign” support to its opponents) to exercise that control, has precedents in other eras of Afghan history.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

55385. Humanitarian NGOs: Challenges and Trends

Author:
Abby Stoddard
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
Non-governmental humanitarian organisations have evolved into a crucial pillar of the international humanitarian architecture. This Briefing Paper reviews the issues and trends affecting the humanitarian non-governmental sector in the wake of the sea-change in the geopolitical agenda after 11 September. Events since threaten to change the landscape of non-governmental humanitarian action in important ways, and are likely to widen the rift between US and European NGOs. Old questions, to do with relations with governments or armed forces or the shape and proper place of advocacy, have become sharper, while new challenges, such as the consolidation of the aid oligopoly, have emerged. While humanitarian agencies have to a surprising extent carried on 'business as usual', they are steeling themselves for uncertain times ahead.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

55386. External Review of the Inter–Agency Standing Committee on Humanitarian Affairs

Author:
Abby Stoddard and Bruce Jones
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
In interpretation of the mandate provided by General Assembly Resolution 46/182 and subsequent, related resolutions, the Inter Agency Standing Committee (IASC) has set for itself the following core objectives: To allocate responsibilities among agencies in humanitarian programmes; To identify areas where gaps in mandates or lack of operational capacity exist; To resolve disputes or disagreement about and between humanitarian agencies on system-wide humanitarian issues. To advocate common humanitarian principles to parties outside the IASC; To develop and agree on system-wide humanitarian policies; and To develop and agree on a common ethical framework for all humanitarian activities.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

55387. Good Intentions Will Not Pave The Road to Peace

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
The Afghan people have been promised a lot in the last two years. New rules for a new world would be written in their country. Regime change would deliver Afghans, finally, from oppression and violence, while a Marshall Plan would give them a chance to rebuild their lives.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

55388. Revaluing the renminbi: a case of 'déjà vu all over again'?

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
There are strong parallels between today's US-China tensions over trade and US-Japan economic relations in the 1980s.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

55389. Globalization of IT Services and White Collar Jobs: The Next Wave of Productivity Growth

Author:
Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Businesses throughout the US economy continue to transform even after the technology boom has faded. The key sources of this continuing transformation are investment in the information technology (IT) package (hardware, software, and business-service applications) and reorientation of business activities and processes to use both information and technology effectively.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

55390. Next Move in Steel: Revocation or Retaliation?

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
In May 2003, the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute panel ruled that US steel safeguards imposed in March 2002 are illegal. The WTO Appellate Body is all but certain to confirm the panel's judgment, probably by December 2003. Then the Bush administration will face an important choice. It can keep the safeguards in place, pleasing steel producers and important constituencies in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. However, doing so would further anger steel users, who have probably lost more business and jobs as a direct consequence of the safeguards than steel producers have gained. Maintaining the safeguards would also send a signal to the world's trading nations that the United States is not prepared to endure the political cost of eliminating steel protection. Furthermore, the administration would run the risk that, in the middle of a presidential election season, foreign countries will exercise their rights under the WTO to retaliate.
Topic:
Government and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia

55391. EU Accession and the Euro: Close Together or Far Apart?

Author:
Peter B. Kenen and Ellen E. Meade
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
In May 2004, ten countries are due to join the European Union. They are therefore obliged to join the European Monetary Union (EMU) and adopt the euro as their national currency. Most of them, moreover, have been eager to do that. None of them sought an opt-out of the sort that Britain and Denmark obtained in 1991, when the Maastricht Treaty was drafted. Membership in EMU is not automatic, however, because the accession countries must first satisfy the preconditions contained in the Maastricht Treaty. Although those preconditions are rigorous, and some of the accession countries are still far from meeting them, most of those countries have indicated that they want to enter EMU at the earliest possible date.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, and Denmark

55392. More Pain, More Gain: Politics and Economics of Eliminating Tariffs

Author:
Gary Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
A good proposal to eliminate tariffs must take into account both the pain and gain that developing countries are likely to experience. The authors take the measure of these costs and benefits and urge rich countries to maximize the benefits to developing countries while giving them ample time to accept, and adjust to, the changes that trade liberalization will require. But trade liberalization should not stop with tariff proposals. The United States and other industrial countries should generously reduce subsidies to farmers and eliminate nontariff barriers on agricultural imports. The United States should offer more concessions on services trade, particularly in its allowances for temporary foreign workers. Unless rich countries put more on the table, a WTO agreement to eliminate tariff barriers may be postponed for years.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Third World
Political Geography:
United States

55393. Rules Against Earnings Stripping: Wrong Answer to Corporate Inversions

Author:
Gary Hufbauer and Ariel Assa
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The tax-driven expatriation of US corporations is a troubling phenomenon. In a “corporate inversion,” a new foreign corporation, typically located in a low-tax or no-tax country, replaces the existing US parent corporation of a multinational enterprise (MNE). The US corporation then becomes a subsidiary of the new foreign parent. Since the US tax treatment of an MNE operating in the United States is significantly less favorable when the top-tier parent corporation is a domestic rather than a foreign corporation, the inversion transaction averts a substantial amount of US tax. Inversions have attracted adverse attention from tax specialists, media, the US Treasury Department, and Congress. In the wake of September 11, it seemed downright unpatriotic for US firms to invert as a way of skimping on their tax payments.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

55394. The Strategic Importance of US-Korea Economic Relations

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Despite the passage of 50 years since an armistice ended military hostilities, the Korean peninsula remains divided, a Cold War vestige that seemingly has been unaffected by the evolution that has occurred elsewhere. If anything, US confrontation with North Korea—a charter member of its “axis of evil”—has intensified in recent years. Yet today, increasing numbers of South Koreans, accustomed to living for decades in the shadows of the North's forward-deployed artillery, do not regard the North as a serious threat. Growing prosperity and confidence in the South, in marked contrast to the North's isolation and penury, have transformed fear and loathing into pity and forbearance. Instead, it is the United States, an ocean away, that regards the North and its nuclear weapons program with alarm. As the United States has focused on the nuclear program, its ally, South Korea, has observed the North Koreans' nascent economic reforms and heard their talk of conventional forces reduction, and the gap in the two countries' respective assessments of the North Korean threat has widened dangerously, threatening to undermine their alliance.
Topic:
Security and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

55395. The Impact of Economic Sanctions on US Trade: Andrew Rose's Gravity Model

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Barbara Oegg
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
With the end of the Cold War, the focus of US foreign policy changed—and so did that of economic sanctions. Partly because of increased cooperation within the UN framework, economic sanctions were imposed so routinely in the early 1990s that scholars called that period the sanctions decade. This proliferation sparked intense debate about the effectiveness of sanctions as a policy tool and moved US sanctions policy to the center of public discourse.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

55396. Economic Leverage and the North Korean Nuclear Crisis

Author:
Kimberly Ann Elliott
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Almost a decade ago, as the last nuclear crisis with North Korea was reaching a peak, I concluded the following about the potential utility of economic sanctions: The debate over US policy toward North Korea boils down to one deceptively simple question: what does Kim Il-sung want? No one can be sure of the answer and different interpretations have quite different policy implications. If the Great Leader views a nuclear weapons option as important to the survival of his regime, economic sanctions are unlikely to force him to give it up. But if he views the threat of developing nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip, some combination of carrots and sticks may induce him to trade it away.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and North Korea

55397. Steel Policy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Author:
Gary C. Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
While the US steel industry has been in distress for decades, the “steel crisis” of 1999-2001 was particularly acute. More than 30 steel producing and steel processing firms fell into bankruptcy between 1997 and 2001, and most of the failures occurred after President Bush took office. During his presidential campaign, Bush promised steelworkers that he would not neglect them. As the crisis worsened, the steel industry and the United Steel Workers of America (USWA) pressed the Bush administration to make good on its campaign promise.
Topic:
Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and America

55398. The Difficulties of Discerning What's Too Tight: Taylor Rules and Japanese Monetary Policy

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Observers have relied increasingly on simple reaction functions, such as the Taylor rule, to assess the conduct of monetary policy. Applying this approach to deflationary or near-zero inflation environments is problematic, however, and this paper examines two shortcomings of particular relevance to the Japanese case of the last decade. One is the unusually high degree of uncertainty associated with potential output in an environment of prolonged stagnation and deflation. Consequently, reaction function-based assessments of Japanese monetary policy are so sensitive to the chosen gauge of potential output as to be unreliable. The second shortcoming is the neglect of policy expectations, which become critically important as nominal interest rates approach zero. Using long-term bond yields, we identify five episodes since 1996 characterized by abrupt declines in Japanese inflation expectations. Policies undertaken by the Bank of Japan during this period did little to stabilize expectations, and the August 2000 interest rate increase appears to have intensified deflationary concerns.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

55399. US-Brazil Trade Relations in a New Era

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The United States and Brazil are the largest economies in North and South America, respectively. A generation ago, both were relatively closed economies in terms of the proportion of their trade to gross domestic product (GDP), but for sharply different reasons. The US market was highly competitive except for some light manufactures (e.g., textiles, clothing, and footwear) and a few agricultural sectors with high border barriers. By contrast, Brazilian industry was largely uncompetitive and highly subsidized; important commodities like coffee provided the bulk of exports while a large share of the value of most industrial exports was attributable to export subsidies.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Caribbean

55400. Empirical Investigations of Inflation Targeting

Author:
Yifan Hu
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
A growing number of countries have anchored their monetary policy to an explicit numerical rate or range of inflation since such an inflation targeting framework was first adopted by New Zealand in 1989. This paper empirically investigates issues associated with inflation targeting using a dataset of 66 countries for the 1980–2000 period.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
New Zealand