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55102. Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Civil Violence: Guatemala 1977-1986
- Author:
- Timothy R. Gulden
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper examines detailed records from the civil conflict in Guatemala between 1977 and 1986. It reveals a number of novel patterns which support the use of complex systems methods for understanding civil violence. It finds a surprising, non-linear relationship between ethnic mix and killing; thereby inviting analysis based on group dynamics. It shows the temporal texture of the conflict to be far from smooth, with a power spectrum that closely resembles that of other, better understood, complex systems. The distribution of incident sizes within the data seems to fall into two distinct sets, one of which, corresponding to "regular" conflict, is Zipf distributed, the other of which includes acts of genocide and is distributed differently. This difference may indicate that that agents of the state were proceeding under different types of orders. These results provide an empirical benchmark for the modeling of civil violence and may have implications for conflict prevention, peace keeping, and the post-conflict analysis of command structures.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, Central America, and Guatemala
55103. The IMF's Dilemma in Argentina: Time for a New Approach to Lending?
- Author:
- Carol Graham and Paul Robert Masson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the international financial system has faced tremendous challenges, from the Asia, Russia, and Brazil crises in the late 1990s, to Argentina's default and ensuing economic collapse in 2002 to new worries about a possible default in Brazil. An increasing number of observers are questioning the way the international financial institutions manage these crises. An alternative approach that is endorsed in principle by many—including Horst Köhler, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—is a move toward more selective lending with fewer conditions, with the decision to lend based on a more general and ultimately political assessment of the recipient government's capacity to deliver on its promises. Argentina provides a potential test bed for this approach.
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Asia, Brazil, Argentina, South America, and Latin America
55104. Kashmir: Redefining the U.S. Role
- Author:
- Navnita Chadha Behera
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- India and Pakistan have fought three wars against each other since 1947, the first two of which were over Kashmir. In the past fifteen years, the two countries have been embroiled in four military crises, which the United States has played an increasingly assertive role in managing and resolving. A chief component of recent American administrations' foreign policy goals in South Asia, including the current Bush administration, has been to avert the fourth war in the subcontinent. However, attitudes in India and Pakistan are changing, and the internal situation in Kashmir is more fluid than it has been for years. After September 11, America has been able to maintain close ties to both countries. Washington should move beyond managing the crisis and help develop a road to peace in the region.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, America, South Asia, Washington, India, and Kashmir
55105. Reducing Collateral Damage to Indo-Pakistani Relations from the War on Terrorism
- Author:
- Polly Nayak
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- One of the major challenges facing Washington is how to limit unintended consequences of the war on terrorism in South Asia that could otherwise imperil both the U.S. counterterrorism strategy and the goal of preventing further conflict between India and Pakistan. Senior U.S. officials understandably hoped last fall that the war on terrorism would provide a new opportunity to draw in both India and Pakistan, to strengthen U.S. ties to each, and to nudge them to resolve their differences. Washington expected to expand cooperation with a rising India on a host of issues, while succoring a fragile Pakistan as a reward for abandoning an Afghan policy inimical to the war on terrorism.
- Topic:
- Security and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, Washington, and India
55106. Strengthening Financial Sector Governance in Emerging Markets
- Author:
- Robert Litan, Michael Pomerleano, and V. Sundararajan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Policymakers and analysts are still sifting through the wreckage of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the subsequent crises in Russia, Turkey, and Argentina to discern key lessons so that similar crises will not recur. Some lessons are by now well understood. Pegged exchange rates can encourage excessive borrowing and expose countries to financial collapse when foreign exchange reserves run dry. Inadequate disclosures by both private companies and public bodies can lead to similar dangers. Although many factors undoubtedly contributed to these crises, it is now widely recognized that each suffered from a failure in “governance,” and in particular a failure in governance in their financial sectors. Accordingly, the World Bank Group, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Brookings Institution devoted their fourth annual Financial Markets and Development Conference, held in New York from April 17-19, 2002, to the subject of financial sector governance in emerging markets. This conference report summarizes some of the highlights of the conference, whose full proceedings will be published as a Brookings book in the fall of 2002.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, New York, Turkey, Asia, and Argentina
55107. Odious Debt
- Author:
- Michael Kremer and Seema Jayachandran
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- When the international community wants to put pressure on a government that suppresses democracy and human rights, a common approach is to impose economic sanctions. Traditional sanctions, however, are often criticized as either ineffective or inhumane. The targeted government can find ways to evade them, and the sanctions may hurt rather than help the people in the country. For example, when trade sanctions are deployed, smugglers and even some national governments will likely flout them, enticed by profits boosted by the sanction itself. When trade sanctions are not evaded, the loss of national income can impoverish citizens. This policy brief proposes a new form of sanction that avoids these shortcomings and hence could be a valuable addition to the toolkit of sanctions available to the international community and national governments.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Political Economy
55108. Earnings Insurance for Germany
- Author:
- Gary Burtless and Holger Schaefer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- For more than a decade, Germany has suffered high rates of unemployment and very slow employment growth. Workers who have lost their jobs face unusually long spells of unemployment, in part because the adverse incentives of the German unemployment compensation system provide strong impetus for unemployed workers to remain jobless.
- Topic:
- Government and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Latin America
55109. The Trezise Symposium on the Japanese Economy
- Author:
- Edward J. Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The Japanese economy has undergone a decade of sluggish growth marked by three recessions, including the current one. This time, recession is accompanied by general price deflation, a situation unprecedented among industrialized nations since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Meanwhile, the financial sector sits on a rising mountain of bad loans. A serious financial crisis and deeper recession are real possibilities.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
55110. Avoiding a Cyprus Crisis
- Author:
- Philip H. Gordon and Henri Barkey
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The resumption of negotiations between the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders has led to renewed hopes that the divided island of Cyprus can be reunified ahead of its likely invitation to join the European Union (EU) in December 2002. In fact, however, there is no guarantee that the renewed talks will produce a deal. Americans and other interested observers should support the process and encourage the leaders to compromise. But they should also be prepared for a scenario in which the parties cannot overcome their differences and the EU extends an invitation to join that would only apply to the Greek portion of the island.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- America, Europe, and Island
55111. Putin's Agenda, America's Choice: Russia's Search for Strategic Stability
- Author:
- Carol Graham
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- In May, President George W. Bush travels to Moscow and St. Petersburg for his fourth summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the past year, Putin has made a number of compromises with America on key questions such as the United States' withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and the presence of U.S. troops in Central Asia. As a result, American commentators have speculated about how many concessions Putin needs from the United States to placate his domestic critics and maintain the positive momentum of U.S.-Russia relations.
- Topic:
- Human Welfare, International Organization, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, America, Central Asia, and Moscow
55112. Strengthening Institutional Capacity in Poor Countries: Shoring Up Institutions, Reducing Global Poverty
- Author:
- Carol Graham
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- In a speech preceding the recent Financing for Development Conference in Monterrey, Mexico, former International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director Michel Camdessus noted that if the summit could only deliver one thing, it should be extending assistance to enhance institutional capacity in poor countries. Addressing this problem is key to achieving the Millennium Goals—established at the September 2000 UN Millennium summit—of reducing world poverty by half by 2015. Countless development efforts have failed because countries lack institutions with the ability to sustain their economic policies. The crisis in Argentina—triggered in large part by the country's reliance on an inflexible currency regime and by its inability to rein in fiscal flagrancy by local governments—is a case in point. Meanwhile, numerous discussions at Monterrey highlighted weak institutional capacity as a major obstacle to economic development.
- Topic:
- Human Welfare, International Organization, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and Mexico
55113. Limiting the Growth of the U.S. Defense Budget
- Author:
- Michael E O'Hanlon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- In proposing a $48 billion defense budget increase for 2003 following a large increase in 2002, President George W. Bush has followed in the budgetary footsteps of former President Ronald Reagan and Reagan's defense secretary, Caspar Weinberger. Adjusted for inflation, Bush's 2003 defense budget would be $50 billion higher than the 2001 budget. By 2007, the real dollar defense budget would go up $30 billion more, approaching the peak levels of the Reagan years.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
55114. A New Agenda for Nuclear Weapons
- Author:
- Ivo H Daalder and James M Lindsay
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- George W. Bush promised on the campaign trail “to leave the cold war behind” and “rethink the requirements for nuclear deterrence.” Last November, he unveiled an arms reduction proposal that purports to do just that. It would have the United States reduce its strategic nuclear arsenal over the next ten years from its current level of 7,200 warheads to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads. Equally important, the United States would achieve that goal not by negotiating a new Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) agreement, but through unilateral action.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
55115. Should the War on Terrorism Target Iraq?
- Author:
- Michael E O'Hanlon and Philip H Gordon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- As Afghan opposition groups and U.S. armed forces continue their successes in the war against the Taliban and al Qaeda, the American debate has quickly turned to the question of where the fight against terrorism should go next. In numerous public statements, President Bush has talked about a wide-ranging campaign against global terrorism. He has not committed to military operations against any other countries or terrorist organizations, but he has made it clear that the broader struggle against terrorism will be a long-lasting effort that could include the use of military force in regions beyond Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Security and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, and Taliban
55116. Democratic Mirage in the Middle East
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway, Thomas Carothers, Amy Hawthorne, and Daniel Brumberg
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The increasingly popular idea in Washington that the United States, by toppling Saddam Hussein, can rapidly democratize Iraq and unleash a democratic tsunami in the Middle East is a dangerous fantasy. The U.S. record of building democracy after invading other countries is mixed at best and the Bush administration's commitment to a massive reconstruction effort in Iraq is doubtful. The repercussions of an intervention in Iraq will be as likely to complicate the spread of democracy in the Middle East as promote it. The United States has an important role to play in fostering democracy in the region, but the task will be slow and difficult given the unpromising terrain and lack of U.S. leverage over key governments.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, and Middle East
55117. America's New Alliance with Pakistan: Avoiding the Traps of the Past
- Author:
- Husain Haqqani
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Pakistan has become a strategic U.S. ally in the war against al Qaeda. For now, Washington's support of General Pervez Musharraf's military regime is untempered by any insistence on the restoration of democracy. But military rule is likely to increase hostility between Pakistan and India and undercut efforts to root out Islamic extremists, who have been the armed forces' political allies in the past.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, America, South Asia, and Washington
55118. New Role in U.S. Trade Policy
- Author:
- John Audley
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- On a hot day in August, President George W. Bush signed into law the Trade Act of 2002. Months of debate between the administration and members of Congress, their constituencies, and other governments were over; with the stroke of his pen President Bush became the first president in almost a decade to enjoy the benefits of trade promotion authority (TPA).
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
55119. September 11, One Year Later: A World of Change
- Author:
- Jessica T Mathews
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- For such a short period, the changes wrought by the events of 9/11 have been immense. It is too soon for judgments of historic import, though. At such a near distance one is tempted to over-ascribe cause and effect, to ignore roots of change that reach farther back, and to overlook unrelated developments of deep importance. And in the sense that “9/11” means the attacks and their aftermath, it is still unfolding. Its eventual significance will depend on future events and policy choices, key among them indicated here. Still, it is revealing to see the global upheaval at a glance, even if a report at this date should be thought of as only pencilled in.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
55120. Global Challenges: Beating the Odds
- Author:
- P.J. Simmons
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The global to-do list has never been more daunting. New arteries for transport, trade, finance, and communications require constantly updated rules. Freer, faster movement across borders necessitates filters to separate terrorists from traders and levees to contain infectious disease, pollution, invasive species, and financial disruption. Once-sovereign responsibilities such as poverty, child labor, and human rights shift to become international moral concerns. Technologies of literally world-shaking power—capable of destroying humans en masse, altering Earth's ecology, or upsetting atmospheric stability—create a set of truly global issues.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and Government
55121. Summit with Substance: Creating Payoffs in an Unequal Partnership
- Author:
- Andrew Kuchins
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- U.S. president George W. Bush and Russian president Vladimir Putin have an important opportunity at their upcoming meeting to reach key agreements, remove major irritants in U.S.–Russian relations, and initiate a genuine partnership less burdened by Cold War legacies. In Europe last summer and in the United States last November, the two leaders established personal chemistry and trust—but the meetings lacked substance. Although Putin's leadership position will not be made or broken on his foreign policies, this time it will be important for his pro-Western orientation to produce a concrete payoff for Russia. As for President Bush, if the summit fails to produce results, then his vaunted Russia policy will be seen to be drifting. Thus both men require real outcomes such as a signed, legally binding nuclear arms reduction agreement and a new institutional relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Perhaps just as important, however, Putin and Bush each must explain to his own country why this partnership is important and what are its key elements.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, North Atlantic, and Asia
55122. U.S. Climate Policy After Kyoto: Elements for Success
- Author:
- Daniel Bodansky
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- With the U.S. withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and the agreement's likely entry into force, it appears that the United States and the rest of the world will go their separate ways on climate change. The United States now faces a stark choice: Do nothing, join Kyoto, or come up with a policy of its own. The first option would be unwise, environmentally and politically. The second would require an embarrassing flip- flop by the Bush administration. This leaves the third option: proposing a credible U.S. approach separate from Kyoto.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
55123. End of a Brief Affair? The United States and Iran
- Author:
- Daniel Brumberg
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Following the September 11 atrocities, a senior U.S. administration official declared that Iran and the United States “see the situation pretty much the same way,” and thus would probably “cooperate” in the war against the Taliban and al Qaeda. This prediction soon became reality. Tehran not only contributed to the rout of the Taliban by supplying food and arms to the Northern Alliance, it also provided military advisers, some of whom probably passed their American counterparts along the road to Kabul.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Iran, and Middle East
55124. Rebalancing United States-China Relations
- Author:
- Michael Swaine and Minxin Pei
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- President George W. Bush's visit to China, Japan, and South Korea in February 2002 highlights the vital importance of the Asia-Pacific region to the United States. His stop in China will be especially significant. He will arrive in Beijing on precisely the 30th anniversary of Richard Nixon's historic journey to China, and at a time of notable—if limited—improvement in relations between China and the United States after one of periodic harsh rhetoric and tense confrontation.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, and Asia
55125. Rebuilding Afghanistan: Fantasy versus Reality
- Author:
- Anatol Lieven and Marina Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan after the Taliban may easily turn into a quagmire for the international community, and the wrong kind of international strategies may easily worsen both its problems and ours. In particular, to begin with a grossly overambitious program of reconstruction risks acute disillusionment, international withdrawal, and a plunge into a new cycle of civil war and religious fanaticism.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Taliban
55126. Preventing New Afghanistans: A Regional Strategy for Reconstruction
- Author:
- Martha Brill Olcott
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Now is the time to learn the lessons of the past decade in Afghanistan: how it declined from a failing state into a cesspool drawing in Islamic malcontents from all over the world as well as those, like Osama bin Laden, who could bankroll them. If we fail to do so, our freedom may regularly be challenged by threats emerging from the heart of Eurasia, from Afghanistan itself, or from the neighboring states whose fates are being reshaped by their troublesome neighbor.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Eurasia
55127. Environment's New Role in U.S. Trade Policy
- Author:
- John Audley
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Trade Act of 2002 integrates environmental policy priorities into U.S. trade negotiations. The manner in which resulting tensions between trade and environment are resolved requires greater involvement by Congress. Of particular short-term importance to Congress should be how bilateral negotiations with Chile and Singapore are concluded and regional negotiations with Central America begun. Congress should also use its oversight power to develop clearer instructions regarding a host of environmental policy issues, including investment and services negotiations, environmental reviews of trade agreements, and clarification of U.S. foreign assistance regarding technical assistance and capacity building for our trading partners. In short, TPA presents Congress with the leverage it needs to oversee trade negotiations, an opportunity to work with the administration and win back public support for U.S. trade policy that respects worker rights and protection of the environment.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Chile
55128. Mythmaking in the Rule of Law Orthodoxy
- Author:
- Frank Upham
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- As governments and donor agencies struggle over questions of aid and international development, a growing consensus is emerging regarding the connections between poor governance and underdevelopment. An increasing number of initiatives, from the U.S. Millennium Challenge Account to the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD), explicitly link improving governance with pursuing sustainable development and poverty alleviation. Lack of pluralism and transparency, inefficient bureaucracies, and underdeveloped public institutions contribute to corruption, reduce governmental responsiveness to citizens' needs, stifle investment, and generally hamper social and economic development. A frequent donor favorite on the laundry list of “good governance” reforms advocated for developing countries is rule of law reform. The new development model contends that sustainable growth is impossible without the existence of the rule of law: a set of uniformly enforced, established legal regimes that clearly lays out the rules of the game.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States
55129. Enhancing Nuclear Security in the Counter-Terrorism Struggle: India and Pakistan as a New Region for Cooperation
- Author:
- Rose Gottemoeller and Rebecca Longsworth
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- THIS PAPER REPORTS THE RESULTS OF A STUDY of the potential to apply the principles and practice of threat reduction cooperation to countries beyond the territory of the former Soviet Union. The study, which was funded by the MacArthur Foundation, focused on the application of concepts and tools used in the former Soviet Union to the region of South Asia. The research was designed to explore what might be done cooperatively to enhance the security of the nuclear assets of India and Pakistan, lest they fall into the hands of terrorists or leaders of rogue states who would use them to threaten other states or peoples.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union
55130. Do Judicial Councils Further Judicial Reform? Lessons from Latin America
- Author:
- Linn Hammergren
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- JUDICIAL REFORM EFFORTS IN LATIN AMERICA, and by extension worldwide, seem to fall easily prey to magic bullets. In the past two decades, reformers in the region and aid providers from North America and Western Europe have seized upon a whole series of entry points for judicial reform—including model codes, accusatory criminal justice systems, court administration reforms, information technology, alternative dispute resolution, legal services, and constitutional courts. Sometime during the late 1980s, as the issue of judicial independence came to receive more serious attention, judicial councils joined the list, and nearly a dozen countries adopted them. It was not until the late 1990s that questions about their utility began to emerge. Although Latin America is beginning to reexamine its love affair with the councils, the model has been gaining ground in other regions. Western Europeans, who invented the mechanism, have been suffering their own doubts. This has not prevented their joining with U.S. reformers in recommending it to postcommunist nations in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union and in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. The cautionary lessons from Latin America's several-decade experiment with judicial councils have not yet been analyzed and disseminated. This essay is a start in that direction.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Government
- Political Geography:
- America, Europe, France, South America, Latin America, and Central America
55131. A New Equation: U.S. Policy toward India and Pakistan after September 11
- Author:
- Lee Feinstein, David Albright, James C Clad, and Lewis A Dunn
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The shifting geopolitical furniture on the subcontinent since last September's terrorist attacks has placed the United States in the unaccustomed position of having good relations with India and Pakistan at the same time. This has helped to forge a consensus in the United States on some of the core challenges India and Pakistan face, and on the approach Washington must pursue to advance its long-term goals for the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, South Asia, and Asia
55132. Foreign Direct Investment: Does the Rule of Law Matter?
- Author:
- John Hewko
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM within the international development community is that foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important component of economic growth and prosperity in transitional and developing countries and that a crucial, if not decisive, factor in enticing such investment is a stable, consistent, fair, and transparent legal and judicial system. As a recent World Bank publication concluded: The massive move by developing and transition countries toward market economies necessitated the adoption of strategies for the encouragement of private investment, domestic and foreign. Naturally, there was a general realization that such an objective could not be achieved without modifying and, sometimes, completely overhauling the legal and institutional framework and firmly establishing the rule of law, thereby creating the necessary climate of stability and predictability.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Government, and International Trade and Finance
55133. Politics and Parallel Negotiations: Environment and Trade in the Western Hemisphere
- Author:
- John Audley and Edward Sherwin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- IN DECEMBER 1994, at the behest of then–U.S. president Bill Clinton, the leaders of the 34 Western Hemisphere democracies convened in Miami for the first comprehensive hemispheric summit in more than 25 years. The assembled heads of state pledged that their countries would forge a path toward regional integration based on four overarching principles: Governments should build strong democratic institutions, prosperity should be promoted through free trade and economic cooperation, poverty and discrimination should be eliminated, and the natural environment should be preserved through policies promoting sustainable development. “Future generations,” Clinton said at the time, “will look back on the Miami summit as a moment when the course of history in the Americas changed for the better.”
- Topic:
- Environment and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, South America, Latin America, Central America, and North America
55134. Russia's Decline and Uncertain Recovery
- Author:
- Thomas E. Jr. Graham
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- For much of the first decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the issue of reform—of transition to free-market democracy—dominated discussions of Russia in Russia itself and in the West. Russian president Boris Yeltsin advocated reform; Western governments declared their support and offered their assistance. This was particularly true of the U.S. government. President Clinton's administration came into office in 1993 determined to assist Russia in its transformation into “a normal, modern state—democratic in its governance, abiding by its own constitution and by its own laws, market-oriented and prosperous in its economic development, at peace with itself and the rest of the world,” as deputy secretary of state Strobe Talbott, the chief architect of the U.S. administration's Russia policy, was wont to put it.
- Topic:
- Economics and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
55135. Sustainable Development A Dubious Solution in Search of a Problem
- Author:
- Jerry Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- From August 26 through September 4, 2002, approximately 100 heads of state and 60,000 delegates will gather in Johannesburg, South Africa, to attend a “World Summit on Sustainable Development.” The conference—convened on the 10th anniversary of the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro and expected to be the largest U.N. summit in history— will explore domestic and international policy options to promote the hottest environmental buzzwords to enter the public policy debate in decades.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, Globalization, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- South Africa
55136. The Globalization of Human Well-Being
- Author:
- Indur M. Goklany
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Controversy over globalization has focused mainly on whether it exacerbates income inequality between the rich and the poor. But, as opponents of globalization frequently note, human well-being is not synonymous with wealth. The central issue, therefore, is not whether income gaps are growing but whether globalization advances well-being and, if inequalities in well-being have expanded, whether that is because the rich have advanced at the expense of the poor.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and Human Welfare
55137. Building Leverage in the Long War: Ensuring Intelligence Community Creativity in the Fight against Terrorism
- Author:
- James W. Harris
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Intelligence is often cited as a critical element in the war against terrorism and, indeed, it is. The U.S. intelligence community has a golden opportunity to develop the capabilities that will make a decisive difference in a war that may last a generation or more. The adversary will not disappear as the campaign to root the al-Qaeda out of Afghanistan winds down. It is essential that intelligence make the transition to the longer-term fight, and the time to begin that transition is at hand.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
55138. Responding to the Threat of Smallpox Bioterrorism: An Ounce of Prevention Is Best Approach
- Author:
- Veronique de Rugy and Charles V. Peña
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The threat of direct terrorist attack against the United States proved to be real. And the subsequent anthrax cases point to the possibility of a future bioterrorist attack, including use of the deadly smallpox virus. The nature of terrorism is such that it is impossible to accurately predict the probability of such an attack, but the potential consequences are catastrophic. Therefore, it is a serious threat that deserves serious attention.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
55139. Fighting the War against Terrorism: Elite Forces, Yes; Conscripts, No
- Author:
- Doug Bandow
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The United States possesses the most powerful military on earth, one that has proved its potency in ousting the Taliban from power in Afghanistan. Yet, even as the military was gearing up to perform so well, some people were calling for a return to conscription or, more dramatically, for institution of mandatory national service for all young people.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Europe, and Taliban
55140. Old Folly in a New Disguise
- Author:
- Gary T. Dempsey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Since September 11, 2001, there have been calls from various quarters to embrace nation building as a tool for combating terrorism. The logic behind the idea is that “good” states do not do “bad” things, so Washington should build more “good” states. That idea, however, relies on several dubious assumptions—for example, that embarking on multiple nation-building missions will reduce the potential for anti-American terrorism. If anything, nation building is likely to create more incentives, targets, and opportunities for terrorism, not fewer. The nation-building idea also draws on false analogies with the past. For example, some people assert that Europe's experience under the Marshall Plan can be readily duplicated in a whole host of countries and that, with enough economic aid, trained bureaucrats, and military force of arms, “bad” states anywhere can be transformed into open, self-sustaining, peaceful states.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Europe, and Washington
55141. Befriending Saudi Princes - A High Price for a Dubious Alliance
- Author:
- Doug Bandow
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Although the House of Saud, Saudi Arabia's royal family, has long leaned toward the West, it is a corrupt totalitarian regime at sharp variance with America's most cherished values. Despite the well-publicized ties between the two governments, Saudi Arabia has seldom aided, and often hamstrung, U.S. attempts to combat terrorism.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
55142. Should the United States "Weaponize" Space?
- Author:
- Edward Hudgins and Charles V. Peña
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Control of space is at the crux of the debate about the future of U.S. military space policy. The question is not about militarizing space. Clearly, we have been using and will continue to use space for military purposes. But, whereas we are currently using space assets to support terrestrial (ground, sea, and air) military operations, what Sen. Robert C. Smith (R-N.H.), the Space Commission (which was chaired by current Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld), and others have proposed is that the United States move toward “weaponizing” space for space control.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
55143. Why the United States Should Not Attack Iraq
- Author:
- Ivan Eland and Bernard Gourley
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- For months the Bush administration has been preparing the country for war with Iraq. The administration has argued that only a forcible regime change can neutralize the threat that Saddam Hussein is said to pose. But the assumptions that underlie the administration's policy range from cautiously pessimistic to outright fallacious. First, there is a prevalent belief that if Iraq is able to obtain nuclear weapons it will inevitably use them. Second, there is a notion that Hussein is totally irrational and cannot be trusted to act in a predictable manner; and, because of that, his leadership creates a substantial risk of instability in the Middle East. Finally, many people in the United States have come to believe that war in Iraq may be the only means of nullifying the threat posed by Iraq's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons programs.
- Topic:
- Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
55144. The Empire Strikes Out: The "New Imperialism": and Its Fatal Flaws
- Author:
- Ivan Eland
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, several commentators have advanced the idea of security through empire. They claim that the best way to protect the United States in the 21st century is to emulate the British, Roman, and other empires of the past. The logic behind the idea is that if the United States can consolidate the international system under its enlightened hegemony, America will be both safer and more prosperous. Although the word “empire” is not used, the Bush administration's ambitious new National Security Strategy seems to embrace the notion of neoimperialism.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
55145. Unsavory Bedfellows: Washington's International Partners in the War on Drugs
- Author:
- Ted Galen Carpenter
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The United States has made common cause with an assortment of dubious regimes around the world to wage the war on drugs. Perhaps the most shocking example was Washington's decision in May 2001 to financially reward Afghanistan's infamous Taliban government for its edict ordering a halt to the cultivation of opium poppies.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean
55146. Fixing Argentina
- Author:
- Kurt Schuler
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Argentina's currency crisis and economic depression have been caused by the bad policies of its government—not by banks, speculators, the International Monetary Fund (despite the bad advice it has given), or other scapegoats. The De la Rúa and Duhalde governments have made several gigantic blunders, namely, increasing tax rates, freezing bank deposits, devaluing the peso, and forcibly converting dollar bank deposits and contracts into pesos (“pesofication”).
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Latin America
55147. Rethinking the Export-Import Bank
- Author:
- Aaron Lukas and Ian Vásquez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Export-Import Bank of the United States (Ex-Im Bank) was created in 1934 as an independent federal agency operating under a renewable congressional charter. That charter most recently expired on September 30, 2001. Since then, the Ex-Im Bank has been operating under a series of continuing resolutions set to expire on March 31, 2002.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
55148. A New Response to the Kashmir Dispute
- Author:
- Jon P. Dorschner
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the current state of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India. While the dispute has been relegated to the back burner by the United States and deemed unsolvable, it could be resolved if the United States invested the resources and energy required. The Northern Ireland dispute serves as a model. Both countries would have to agree to postpone final resolution of the status of Kashmir, while demobilizing armed forces, ending terrorism, establishing a credible human rights regime, and opening the Line of Control to enable free contact by Kashmiris.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, Kashmir, and North Ireland
55149. Tax Reforms and "Modell Deutschland": Lessons from Four Years of Red-Green Tax-Policy
- Author:
- Achim Truger and Wade Jacoby
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- When the red-green (SPD-Bündnis90/DieGrünen) coalition took over the federal government from the Christian-Democrat/Free-Democrat (CDU/CSU/FDP) coalition in 1998, tax reforms had a very high political priority. And, in fact, the government pushed through an astonishing number of far-reaching tax reforms/tax changes within a period of little more than two years. This paper follows two aims. First, it gives a short description of the measures taken and evaluates them with respect to tax theory and the German tax reform debate of the 1990s. Second, it explicitly addresses the question whether the tax changes were influenced by the wish to reform the Modell Deutschland, i.e. whether something substantial was done to change Germany ́s status as a perceived high tax country and if so, whether the attempt was successful. It will be shown that even though the problem of high taxes might have been many observers ́ and, indeed, also the government ́s dominant concern, there was much more to the German debate. The chapter will also ask whether generously cutting taxes was the right thing to do. It demonstrates that under Germany ́s peculiar economic and institutional circumstances at the end of the 1990s, the attempt to cut taxes led to serious problems for fiscal policy, growth, and employment.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
55150. Back to the Nest? Europe's Relations with the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of Countries
- Author:
- John Ravenhill
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Europe's association with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries was the first of its interregional relationships. In the nearly half century since the signature of the Treaty of Rome, it developed into Europe's most institutionalized and multidimensional interregional relationship. It embraces not only trade and investment issues but also a development "partnership" that includes what has traditionally been the EU's largest single aid program, a joint parliamentary assembly, meetings of organizations representing civil society, and a dialogue on human rights. This chapter examines the factors that have shaped this relationship over the last four decades. The principal focus is on the trade regime, not just for consistency with the other contributions to this volume but also because it is in its trade dimension that the relationship has changed most dramatically over time.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Caribbean, and Rome