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55051. The Politics of China's Shareholding System

Author:
Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper considers two questions. First, why did the Chinese government establish stock markets? Second, how have political interests shaped the key features of these markets? Based on both interviews and statistical analysis, the paper argues that China's top Party-State leaders attempted to create stock market institutions that allow the state to maintain control over listed companies, and over “the market” as a whole.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

55052. Local Governments and the Chinese Stock Market

Author:
Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper examines a key aspect of the politics of stock markets in China—the distinct differences in interests between central government leaders and local governments. Central government leaders have a powerful incentive to promote macroeconomic stability and good performance of the stock market. Local leaders, for their part, are less concerned with the overall performance of the stock market than with gaining access to the stock market for companies under their own jurisdiction. The paper demonstrates that company listing brings tangible economic benefits to municipalities. Listed companies are associated with higher levels of gross domestic product (GDP), budgetary revenue, and industrial and commercial tax revenue. Therefore, it is not surprising that local officials put substantial effort into lobbying for the right to list additional companies on the national stock exchanges.
Topic:
Communism, Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

55053. Addressing the North Korea Nuclear Challenge

Author:
Michael H. Armacost, Daniel I. Okimoto, and Gi-Wook Shin
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
North Korea's renewed bid for nuclear weapons poses an urgent, serious foreign policy challenge to the United States. The current situation—though it bears a resemblance to the events of 1993–1994—is far more dangerous and difficult. North Korea has developed longer-range ballistic missiles; South Korea's growing nationalism has put its U.S. relations on shakier ground; and the United States is distracted by the wars on terrorism and for regime change in Iraq.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Palestine

55054. Sociological Dimensions of China's Economic Transition: Organization, Stratification, and Social Mobility

Author:
Andrew G. Walder
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Despite skepticism about official economic statistics, there is little doubt that China since 1978 has undergone an economic transformation of historic proportions. This outcome stands in stark opposition to arguments that were once widely accepted in several scholarly communities, and which are still highly influential even today. In the early 1980s there was wide agreement that “partial” reform, under a single party dictatorship that sought indefinitely to preserve public ownership, was a recipe for failure. China specialists, students of comparative economic systems, and economists who advised governments and international agencies about postcommunist restructuring in Eurasia were initially in broad agreement on this point.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

55055. International Organizations and Democratization: Testing the Effect of GATT/WTO Membership

Author:
Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Does the World Trade Organization promote democracy? A large part of the heated and protracted debate over China's application for WTO membership revolved around this question. Prior to China's WTO accession in December 2001, this debate had dragged on for nearly fifteen years. While one side argued that WTO membership would promote democratization in China, others argued that the wealth generated through economic integration would provide the resources to maintain authoritarian rule. Only time will tell whether WTO accession will contribute to pressures for democratization in China. In the meantime, however, this paper examines the empirical basis for these competing claims about the effects of GATT/WTO memberships on domestic political systems. Based on statistical analysis of a global data set, this paper concludes that members of the international trade regime are more likely than nonmembers to be democracies. However, there is little evidence that WTO membership in itself can promote democratic transition. Instead, it appears to be the case that democratic countries are more likely to seek to join the WTO.
Topic:
Communism, Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

55056. Politics and Property in Transitional Economies: A Theory of Elite Opportunity

Author:
Andrew G. Walder
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Command economies gave communist-era elites administrative control and material privilege but severely restricted money income and private wealth. Markets and privatization inject new value into public assets and create unprecedented opportunities for elite insiders to extract incomes or assume ownership. These opportunities vary with the extensiveness of regime change and the barriers to asset appropriation. Within these limits, they further vary with the concentration and form of economic assets and structural changes induced by reform. Elite advantages are smallest where regime change is extensive and barriers to asset appropriation are high, and in small-scale economies that grow rapidly. In China, there has been no regime change and privatization has been delayed and slow. In the rural economy, elites keep their posts as a source of economic advantage, while low entry barriers to household enterprise and rapid growth have created new entrepreneurial elites. After two decades, rural officials nonetheless enjoy large net income advantages that grow along with the expansion of labor markets and private entrepreneurship. These are not generic outcomes of market reform, but the product of market reform in distinctive political and structural conditions.
Topic:
Communism, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

55057. The Paradox of Korean Globalization

Author:
Gi-Wook Shin
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Some months ago a Stanford freshman came to ask for help on his project on Korea. At the time, I thought he was a Korean American, given that his command of both English and Korean is excellent. To my surprise, I learned that he was educated until high school in Korea and had never been to the United States before coming to Stanford. He surprised me further when he told me about his high school, the Korean Minjok Leadership Academy (KMLA). Located in a remote area of Kwangwon province—arguably the more underdeveloped region in South Korea—KMLA aspires to be Korea's version of Eton. The school's goal is to produce Korea's future leaders, and to instill in them a strong national identity (see its website at http://www.minjok.hs.kr). Fascinated by what he told me, I made a visit to his high school in fall 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
United States, America, Asia, and Korea

55058. Electricity Restructuring

Author:
John A. Riggs and Paul Runci
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Over the July 4th weekend, seventy current and former government officials and experts from industry, academia, and consumer and environmental public interest groups met to discuss the state of the U.S. electricity industry. The lack of progress in addressing critical electricity issues will increase costs and reduce performance in the electricity sector over the next several years. The long-term future of electricity supply and demand is also clouded by the absence of clear and stable government policies.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

55059. Fundusz Mikro An Experiment In Partnership–Based Microfinance 1998 – 2002.

Author:
Witold Szwajkowski
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Fundusz Mikro's evolution has to be understood in the context of Poland's emergence from communism during the 1990s. For businesses, the challenge of that time was not merely to learn new skills, but to unlearn old habits and attitudes while at the same time taking on new ones appropriate to a market economy. Because of this shift, Fundusz Mikro (FM) found that it had to do more than lend money; it had to learn to play a more pro-active role in changing the culture in which business took place. The financial crisis of1998 and the harder economic times since then were an added incentive for FM to adapt its approach, products, and finally its mission.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

55060. Journalism, Security and the Public Interest

Author:
Adam Clymer
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In the wake of the national trauma of September 11, 2001, if there was one nostrum that dominated national commentary, it was “nothing will ever be the same again.”
Topic:
Government and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

55061. Media Convergence, Diversity, and Democracy

Author:
Neil Shister
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The complexity of democracy is both its defect and its virtue. As an idealized conception, democracy promotes equitable social order through the counter play of interests while the rule of law protects individual citizens from the arbitrariness of the state. In practice, matters are considerably more ambiguous. Contradictions exist between theory and action; the power and privileges of some people invariably make them "more equal" than hers—social equity being a relative term. Even so, belief that democracy renders "the greatest good for the greatest number" constitutes the orthodox faith of contemporary civil religion. "No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all wise," noted Winston Churchill in his oft-quoted observation. "Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried from time to time."
Topic:
Politics and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

55062. Biological Security Public Health: In Search of a Global Treatment

Author:
Kurt M. Campbell and Philip Zelikow
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
This summary is drawn from discussions held from August 4 to August 8, 2002 in Aspen, Colorado, building on the background research prepared for the participants. For four consecutive days, the Aspen Strategy Group and its guests examined the nexus of bio-logical security and global public health, focusing on national preparedness for biological attack and for new naturally occurring biological dangers, as well as global preparedness to address extreme biological dangers faced by much of humanity. The ensuing summary draws out the pol-icy recommendations from this dialogue, thereby omitting much of the detail and factual exchanges that were also extremely beneficial to all the participants. The participants were a distinguished group, and a list of them follows. They benefited from a thought-provoking and insightful set of papers, to be found in the subsequent sections of this publication.
Topic:
Security, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology

55063. The Rise of Netpolitik: How the Internet Is Changing International Politics and Diplomacy

Author:
David Bollier
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In the midst of her travels as Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright decided to venture off the standard diplomatic tour and visit the local market in Bakhara, Uzbekistan. “For all intents and purposes it could have been in the fifteenth century,” she recalled. “It was a big camel market, with rugs that looked liked they had been hanging there for a long time. Dust and all that.”
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology

55064. Balancing Policy Options in a Turbulent Telecommunications Market

Author:
Robert M. Entman and Dale N. Hatfield
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In 2002, the Aspen Institute Conference on Telecommunications Policy deviated from its traditional single annual gathering in Aspen by holding two meetings—one on spectrum policy and the other on broader telecommunications issues. The first convening, held last spring at the Aspen Wye River campus, focused on reforming spectrum policy; a subsequent meeting was held in the usual August time slot. This summer meeting went beyond the issue of spectrum policy to delve into more pressing issues surrounding an industry experiencing more than its of share of troubles. This report is a synthesis of both convenings, with an emphasis on the larger context provided by the summer colloquy.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology

55065. China's New Leadership: Paradoxes, Characteristics and Implications

Author:
Cheng Li
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In his seven-decade-long academic career, the great British historian, Joseph Needham, tried to explain what Sinologists later called “the Needham Paradox.” It was a paradox that, while traditional China had many talented people and was advanced in science, the country declined during the middle part of the last millennium. According to Needham, a primary reason for the decline of China was that the country “lost its edge” by suppressing technicians and merchants “whose power posed a threat to the Emperor.”
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

55066. The Prospects for Political Reform in China: Religious and Political Expression

Author:
Richard Madsen
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Religion is flourishing in China today. After being severely restricted in the first decade and a half of the Maoist era, virtually all forms of public religious practice were suppressed during the Cultural Revolution and replaced by a quasi-religious cult of Mao, complete with sacred texts (the Little Red Book), rituals, and claims of miracles. But the Mao cult imploded amid the chaos of the Cultural Revolution. After the death of Mao and the overthrow of his close associates, the Deng Xiaoping regime relaxed restrictions on religious practice; and the freedoms of an expanding market economy made the remaining restrictions easy to subvert. In this environment, hundreds of religious flowers began to bloom, some of them replications of pre-revolutionary religious forms, many others new mutations of the old. According to the government's own—almost certainly underestimated—figures, there are over 100 million religious believers in China today. The real number is probably several times as large.
Topic:
Politics and Religion
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

55067. Taiwan in U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Shelley Rigger
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
It is hardly a revelation that U.S. relations with Taiwan and the People's Republic of China are vexed and vexing. Managing U.S. relationships with Taiwan and China has never been easy, but the trend seems to be toward ever greater complexity and ever higher stakes. The U.S. is like a helicopter pilot carrying out a rescue at sea. The pilot is struggling to hover above the boat, which is drifting and heaving, while the wind does its best to blow his craft out of the sky. Meanwhile, the passengers on the deck are fighting over who gets to go up first. Like the helicopter pilot, U.S. policy makers must hold a steady course while they wait for Taiwan and China to resolve their differences. They also would like to do what they can to speed up the negotiations down on the deck.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, East Asia, and Asia

55068. Taiwan's Approach to Cross-Strait Relations

Author:
Ying-jeou Ma
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Civil war broke out between the Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) Government of China and the Chinese Communist forces shortly after Japan surrendered to the Allied forces in 1945. Having occupied most of the country by mid-1949, the Chinese Communists proclaimed in Beijing the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on October 1, 1949. The Nationalist Government retreated to Taiwan, an island of 13,969 square miles just 90 miles off the coast of the Chinese Mainland, in December that year and continued to call itself the Republic of China (ROC). Sporadic battles continued in coastal areas of the Chinese Mainland.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, and Island

55069. The Chinese Economy: WTO, Trade, and U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Barry Naughton
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The Chinese economy is showing extraordinary dynamism, which partly reflects the early impact of the commitments in China's WTO accession agreement to liberalize the economy. Incoming foreign investment has increased, and trade has grown rapidly. At the same time, China is grappling with serious economic problems that may worsen in the near future. The most difficult problem in crafting China policy is deciding how to respond flexibly to this extraordinary mixture of dynamism and fragility. Rapid growth gives the Chinese economy remarkable resilience; but deep-seated institutional weakness and stubborn problems of poverty and unemployment create dangers of social and economic disruption. An effective U.S. China policy must navigate between the extremes of over-estimating China's current economic strength and under-estimating her potential.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

55070. New Priorities in South Asia

Author:
Frank G. II Wisner, Nicholas Platt, and Marshall M. Bouton
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
South Asia may be halfway around the globe from the United States, but in the age of the Internet and globalization, what happens there—as the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda tragically underscored—can affect all Americans. The challenge to U.S. policy over the medium term (through 2010) is to design and implement a stable and sustained approach that will solidify bilateral ties with three of the key countries of the region—India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan—and give the United States an opportunity to influence major regional developments. This report assesses the strengths and weaknesses of India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and recommends how U.S. policy can best take advantage of the opportunities while addressing the dangers that they present. Success in dealing with South Asia will require sustained and highlevel attention, sensitive diplomacy, a realistic view of what is possible, and, especially with Pakistan and Afghanistan, investment of substantial resources.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and India

55071. Finding America's Voice: A Strategy for Reinvigorating U.S. Public Diplomacy

Author:
Peter G. Peterson, Kathy Bloomgarden, Henry Grunwald, David E. Morey, Shibley Telhami, Jennifer Sieg, and Sharon Herbstman
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The United States has a growing problem. Public opinion polls echo what is seen in foreign editorials and headlines, legislative debate, and reports of personal and professional meetings. Anti- Americanism is a regular feature of both mass and elite opinion around the world. A poll by the Times of London, taken just before the Iraq war, found respondents split evenly over who posed a greater threat to world peace, U.S. President George W. Bush or then Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. At the same time, European antiwar protests drew millions, and several national leaders ran successfully on anti- American platforms. Americans at home and abroad face an increased risk of direct attack from individuals and small groups that now wield more destructive power. The amount of discontent in the world bears a direct relationship to the amount of danger Americans face.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, and Europe

55072. Voluntary associations and region building. A post-national perspective on Baltic history

Author:
Jörg Hackmann
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Voluntary associations are a major topic of historical research on nation building and civil society in Europe. This paper focuses on the associational sphere in the Baltic provinces of Tsarist Russia and tries to outline the impact of associations on modern societies in this region. The first section addresses the legal and social frameworks of voluntary associations, followed by a sketch of developmental trends in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The next sections discuss the role of voluntary associations within the concepts of civil society and cultural nation building. Slightly different from conventional functionalist national discourses, it is argued here that, in the perspective of cultural history, voluntary associations contributed considerably to the emergence of the region of North Eastern Europe, a region shaped by close cultural contacts and inter-ethnic relations within the Baltic Sea region as well as by the strivings of the small nations to integrate with larger European structures.
Topic:
Civil Society and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

55073. Afghanistan: Are We Losing the Peace?

Author:
Marshall Bouton, Frank G. Wisner, Nicholas Platt, Mahnaz Ispahani, and Dennis Kux
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Nineteen months after the defeat of the Taliban and its al-Qaeda allies, Afghanistan remains a long way from achieving the U.S. goal of a stable self-governing state that no longer serves as a haven for terrorists. Indeed, failure to stem deteriorating security conditions and to spur economic reconstruction could lead to a reversion to warlord dominated anarchy and mark a major defeat for the U.S. war on terrorism. To prevent this from happening, the Task Force recommends that the United States strengthen the hand of President Hamid Karzai and intensify support for security, diplomatic, and economic reconstruction in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia

55074. Emergency Responders: Drastically Underfunded, Dangerously Unprepared

Author:
Warren B. Rudman, Richard A. Clarke, and Jamie F. Metzl
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
If we knew that there was going to be a terrorist attack sometime in the next five years but did not know what type of attack it would be, who would carry it out, or where in the United States it would occur, what actions would we take to prepare and how would we allocate our human and financial resources to do so? The tragic events of September 11, 2001 brought home to the American people the magnitude of the danger posed by terrorism on U.S. soil. Now, in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, the United States must assume that terrorists will strike again, possibly using chemical, biological, radiological, or even nuclear materials. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States

55075. Burma: A Time for Change

Author:
Mathea Falco
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
On May 30, 2003, the Burmese military regime orchestrated violent attacks by pro-government militia on Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and her supporters as they traveled outside Mandalay. At least four of her bodyguards were killed as well as a significant number of others. She has been held in custody since then. Following the attacks, the regime arrested more than 100 democracy activists, imprisoned at least a dozen, shut down NLD offices across the country, and closed schools and universities. This is the bloodiest confrontation between Burma's military rulers and democracy supporters since 1988, when the government suppressed a popular uprising against the regime and thousands were killed.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Burma and Southeast Asia

55076. Iraq: The Day After- Chairs' Update

Author:
Thomas Pickering and James Schlesinger
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
This memorandum focuses on key challenges in the postwar period in Iraq. It supplements the March 12, 2003, report, Iraq: The Day After, prepared by the Independent Task Force on Post-Conflict Iraq and sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations. That report contained some 30 recommendations for U.S. postwar policy in Iraq. While some of the Task Force's recommendations addressed contingencies that did not occur (such as the use of weapons of mass destruction by Iraqi forces or large-scale refugee flight), the bulk of the recommendations remain applicable some three months after the release of the initial report. This supplement highlights a few key areas of continuing concern that we believe require attention by the administration.
Topic:
Development and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

55077. Chinese Military Power

Author:
Harold Brown, Adam Segal, and Joseph W. Prueher
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The People's Republic of China (PRC) is currently engaged in comprehensive military modernization. This report addresses the state of China's military capability, assesses the current capabilities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), and establishes milestones for judging the future evolution of Chinese military power over the next twenty years. These assessments and milestones will provide policymakers and the public with a pragmatic and nonpartisan approach to measuring the development of Chinese military power. They will allow observers of Chinese military modernization to determine the degree to which changes in the quantity and quality of China's military power may threaten the interests of the United States, its allies, and its friends; and how the United States should adjust and respond politically, diplomatically, economically, and militarily to China's military development.
Topic:
Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

55078. Meeting the North Korean Nuclear Challenge

Author:
Eric Heginbotham, Morton I. Abramowitz, and James T. Laney
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Over the past two years, North Korea has advanced its nuclear weapons program and increasingly emphasized its need for a nuclear capability. Since October 2002 when it admitted to having a clandestine program to make highly enrichment uranium (HEU), the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has withdrawn from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), asserted it possesses nuclear weapons, and declared that it is reprocessing its spent fuel. In May 2003, Pyongyang declared that its 1992 “denuclearization” pledge with South Korea was dead. North Korean violations of the Agreed Framework, the basis of U.S.-North Korea relations since 1994, have left that agreement in tatters.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, and North Korea

55079. A New National Security Strategy in an Age of Terrorists, Tyrants, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

Author:
Lawrence J. Korb
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
From the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to the fall of the Twin Towers in 2001, and even now after the Iraq war of 2003, the United States has not had a consistent national security strategy that enjoyed the support of the American people and our allies. This situation is markedly different from the Cold War era when our nation had a clear, coherent, widely supported strategy that focused on containing and deterring Soviet Communist expansion. The tragic events of September 11, the increase in terrorism, and threats from countries such as North Korea and, until recently, Iraq, create an imperative once again to fashion and implement a coherent national security strategy that will safeguard our national interests.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Israel, East Asia, North Korea, and Berlin

55080. Iraq: The Day After

Author:
Thomas R. Pickering and James R. Schlesinger
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
If the United States goes to war and removes the regime of Saddam Hussein, American interests will demand an extraordinary commitment of U.S. financial and personnel resources to postconflict transitional assistance and reconstruction. These interests include eliminating Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD); ending Iraqi contacts, whether limited or extensive, with international terrorist organizations; ensuring that a post-transition Iraqi government can maintain the country's territorial integrity and independence while contributing to regional stability; and offering the people of Iraq a future in which they have a meaningful voice in the vital decisions that impact their lives.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East

55081. Towards a Proactive Immigration Policy for the EU?

Author:
Sergio Carrera and Joanna Apap
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This report involves an assessment of the legislative progress achieved towards a proactive immigration policy regarding those described as 'third country nationals' (TCNs) entering into and residing legally in the European Union (EU). We also evaluate the extent to which the attacks of 11 September 2001 in the US had a real impact on the legislative developments and policy agenda in relation to this area.
Topic:
International Law and Migration
Political Geography:
Europe

55082. Does venture capital investment spur employment growth?

Author:
Ansgar Belke, Rainer Fehn, and Neil Foster
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Anglo-Saxon countries have been successful in the 1990s concerning labour market performance compared to the former role models of Germany and Japan. This reversal in relative economic performance might be related to idiosyncracies in financial markets, with bank-based financial markets as in Germany and Japan being possibly inferior to stock-market based financial markets in turbulent times and when approaching the economic frontier. A cleavage is related to venture capital markets which are flourishing in Anglo-Saxon but not in German-type financial markets. Venture capital is crucial for financing structural change, new firms and innovations and therefore possibly also nowadays for employment growth.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, and Germany

55083. Better Safe than Sorry: Applying the Precautionary Principle to Issues of International Security

Author:
Marc Houben
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The strategic condition of the world is characterised by the fact that pre-emptive military action may be necessary. This condition is based on the realisation that legitimate national governments have lost their monopoly on the use of force while determined individuals and groups of individuals can lay their hands on weapons with which they can inflict huge, even irreversible damage to entire societies. Assuming that preemptive military action is here to stay and we should be determined not to let it escape democratic control. This paper seeks the procedures and checks that should be in place if pre-emptive military action is to be firmly embedded in democratic practices and institutions. To that end, it reviews the application of the precautionary principle in the environmental and food safety domains and assesses whether the procedural checks and practices used there can also have their utility in the international security domain.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, and War

55084. Palestinian Refugees: How can a durable solution be achieved?

Author:
Tanya Salem
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The refugee question is at the core of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Palestinians were first displaced as a direct consequence of the 1948 war and its aftermath. Twenty years later, another wave of Palestinian refugees was created as a consequence of the war during which Israel occupied the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

55085. The Arab Minority in Israel: Implications for the Middle East Conflict

Author:
Shira Kamm
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Arab minority in Israel are in a unique position to contribute to the resolution of the Middle East conflict and stabilise relations between the different nations and countries in the region. This paper reviews the history of the Arab minority in Israel and reports on their legal, socio-economic and political status. It examines relations between the Arab minority and the Jewish majority, the Israeli government and the rest of the Palestinian people. On the basis of the review, this paper makes recommendations that aim to improve the situation of the Arab minority, strengthen the dialogue between the Arab minority and Jewish majority in Israel, and enable the Arab minority to act as a mediator in the Middle East peace process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

55086. European Institutional Models as Instruments of Conflict Resolution in the Divided States of the European Periphery

Author:
Michael Emerson, Nathalie Tocci, Bruno Coppieters, Marius Vahl, and Michel Huysseune
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This study focuses on 'Europeanisation' as an instrument of conflict resolution in the south eastern periphery of the EU. By 'Europeanisation' we mean the cultural, legal, institutional and economic impact of European integration on domestic structures. The introduction of such institutional mechanisms and processes takes place at formal and informal levels. By European integration we do not only mean accession to the EU, but also participation in the wider European international organisations such as the OSCE, Council of Europe, NATO's Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council/Partnership for Peace (EAPC/PfP) and Confederation of Independent States (CIS). All these organisations have their own concepts of Europe.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe

55087. The New Walls and Fences - Consequences for Israel and Palestine

Author:
Gershon Baskin and Sharon Rosenberg
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
'Good fences make good neighbours' wrote the poet Robert Frost. Israel and Palestine are certainly not good neighbours and the question that arises is will a fence between Israel and Palestine turn them into 'good neighbours'. This paper deals with the Israeli decision to construct a fence that will divide Israel and the West Bank. Almost all public debate of the wall in Israel has been limited to the security aspects. In light of the success enjoyed so far by the wall or fence around the Gaza Strip in preventing suicide bombers from getting through, the defence for needing a similar wall around the West Bank seems like an easy task.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

55088. Progress and Obstacles in the Area of Justice Home Affairs in an Enlarging Europe

Author:
Sergio Carrera and Joanna Apap
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper assesses the legislative achievements made so far in the objectives set by the Amsterdam Treaty and the Tampere European Council. It explores why a number of Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) policy areas have experienced a greater degree of development or convergence than others. This is a most sensitive field of study that has been guarded as either an area of national sovereignty, or where sovereignty issues could be at stake. The existence of frictions and strains between member states can be considered as the main cause of differences in development. The way in which these frictions have affected the implementation of policy and how these may be further exacerbated by the forthcoming enlargement are equally analysed.
Topic:
Human Welfare and International Law
Political Geography:
Europe

55089. Fiscal Policy in the New Open Economy Macroeconomics and Prospects for Fiscal Policy, Coordination

Author:
Leonor Coutinho
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper reviews the analysis of fiscal policy in the new open economy macro-economics literature, in view of increasing interest in the question of transmission and coordination of policies across countries, stirred by developments in this literature and by the formation of the euro area. The analysis focuses on two main points: (i) the identification of welfare spillover effects to third countries; and (ii) the assessments made so far of the potential gains from pursuing non-cooperative and cooperative fiscal stabilisation policies. Regarding welfare spillovers, some additional results are derived to examine whether the exchange rate regime (flexible or fixed) matters for the size of these spillovers, and whether the type of policy pursued (balanced-budget or debt-financed) matters. Fixed exchange rates only seem to postpone the costs from the short to the long run, but the type of policy is crucial in determining the welfare impact of fiscal expansions. With respect to policy coordination, attention is drawn to the need to reflect on a potential role for fiscal policy as a stabilisation tool, and on possible interactions between fiscal and monetary policy.
Topic:
Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

55090. Trade Policy Issues for the Euro-Med Partnership

Author:
Paul Brenton and Miriam Manchin
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The economic prospects of the Mediterranean countries are currently constrained by the lack of ambition in their relationships with each other and with their major export market, the EU. These economic relationships are limited by a lack of coverage (agriculture and services are effectively excluded), by a lack of depth (substantial technical barriers to trade remain due to differences in regulatory requirements and the need to duplicate testing and conformity assessment when selling in overseas markets), and they are limited by rules (restrictive rules of origin and lack of cumulation limit effective market access). In addition, the rest of Europe, including Turkey, is integrating at a faster pace to create a Wider European Economic Space. If nothing is done to invigorate the integration process in the Mediterranean, then the region will fall (further) behind relative to other regions on the periphery of the EU, such as the Balkans and Russia and the Ukraine.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, and Balkans

55091. The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership: Unique Features, First Results and Future Challenges

Author:
Eric Philippart
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Many things have changed since the launch of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP). Despite the virtual collapse of the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP), the Partnership has survived, has slowly moved forward on many fronts and seems to be gathering pace on the economic side. This working paper aims at presenting the new contours of the Partnership, as well as evaluating its scope of action, logic of intervention, organisational setting and policy output from 1995-2003. A brief mid-term outlook is offered by way of conclusion.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

55092. Secularisation, Inter-Religious Dialogue and Democratisation in the Southern Mediterranean

Author:
Theodoros Koutroubas
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The paper discusses the relation between religion and politics in the Southern Mediterranean and its consequences for the democratisation and peaceful co-existence of the different confessional communities of the region. Its aims are to draw attention to the mechanisms responsible for the perpetuation of an "umbilical cord" between religious and political discourse in the region, to highlight the dangers this could mean for Europe's multicultural society model and to propose secularisation and inter-religious dialogue as a tool for the acceleration of the democratisation process.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East

55093. Road Maps and Final Destinations for Israel and Palestine

Author:
Michael Emerson and Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Quartet was born at a meeting of foreign ministers in Madrid in April 2002, in response to Israeli army incursions into the Palestinian territories and in an attempt to give a fresh impetus to Western efforts to revive the lapsed Middle East peace process. The Quartet consists of the EU, Russia, the US and the United Nations. Given the relative passivity of the Russian and UN participants, the Quartet is effectively being driven by the US and the EU. While not yet successful in re-activating the peace process, it confirms in principle for the EU for the first time since the end of the Clinton period that the peace process is no longer the exclusive domain of the US, and that the US appears to welcome a more active European role as a political player, rather than just a payer of aid.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations

55094. Public Opinion and Enlargement: A Gravity Approach

Author:
Erik Jones and Niels van der Bijl
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Popular support for enlargement of the European Union is a function of how close or how far removed the member states are from the candidate countries. In the absence of country fixed effects or special bilateral relationships (e.g. adjacency, historic rivalry, religious conformity), we can explain approximately 14% of the variation in attitudes across member states and with regard to specific candidate countries using factors related to trade, distance, and relative economic size and structure. Taking special bilateral relations into account we can explain approximately 30%. Once country fixed effects are incorporated, the level of explanation increases to 80%.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Europe

55095. Mapping Israel's Policy Options regarding its Future Institutionalised Relations with the European Union

Author:
Alfred Tovias
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The nature of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership will change with the Enlargement of the EU to include 13 additional members since all Mediterranean non-Arab countries will be in the EU but Israel. Israel will be obliged to revise its relations with the EU. The paper explores some possible policy options open to Israel. After discarding a continuation of Israel's present status in the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, a second policy option gauges advantages and disadvantages for Israel of obtaining membership in the European Economic Area, i.e. full economic integration without political integration in the EU. Taking into consideration quantum political changes which have taken place in and around the EU, as well as in the Middle East, a third Israeli policy option postulates EU membership, so as not to be left behind and which would bring a "new vision" for Israel, once peace with its neighbours is in the offing, allowing for a complete change of the present terms of reference.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Israel

55096. The Civil False Claims Act: Using Lincoln's Law to Protect the European Community Budget

Author:
Alan Riley
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper argues that the US Civil False Claims Act of 1986 (hereafter CFCA) could provide the European Community with a means to effectively protect the largely decentralised revenue collection and expenditure of the Community bud get. It also offers a solution to the difficulty of creating an effective means of investigation and penalisation of cross-border fraud without having to create a Community criminal law or a European Public Prosecutor.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

55097. The Draft Constitutional Treaty's Voting Reform Dilemma

Author:
Richard Baldwin and Mika Widgren
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The ongoing Intergovernmental Conference (IGC 2003) must re-shape Giscard d'Estaing's draft into a Constitutional Treaty that can be signed and subsequently ratified by all 25 members of the enlarged European Union.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

55098. Maintaining Security with Borders: Towards a Permanent State of Emergency in the EU?

Author:
Sergio Carrera and Joanna Apap
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This report carries out an assessment of the European measures and practices implemented within the scope of the Schengen borders regime after the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 in the United States. In particular we look at: the re-introduction of border checks on the basis of Art. 2.2 of the Schengen Convention, along with the plan to put protestors under surveillance and deny entry to suspected troublemakers; and the policies on intrusive surveillance through the use of biometric technologies and databases , as well as the controv ersial EU/US bilateral relations on the transfer of Passenger Name Record information (PNR).
Topic:
Security and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

55099. Institutionalising the Wider Europe

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Wider Europe has become a prominent feature in European foreign policy discourse. The EU's first policy documents on this subject, however, have been thin in substance, mainly seeking to develop more active bilateral relations with countries such as Ukraine and Moldova. At the same time, however, the EU is discussing bilaterally just with Russia a set of common European policy spaces that should be at the heart of a Wider Europe policy. This paper argues that the EU should adopt a systematic approach to defining a complete set of seven common European policy spaces, with multilateral institutional developments to match, thus bringing together the bilateral and multilateral approaches. The overarching institutional mechanism should be through transforming the present very weak 'European Conference' into a seriously structured 'Pan-European Conference', led by a Coordinating Group consisting of the EU, Russia and a few other rotating places for non-EU states, with institutionalised linkages to the Council of Europe and other European multilateral organisations for the specific common policy spaces.
Topic:
International Organization and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

55100. Reform of Corporate Governance in the EU

Author:
Karel Lannoo and Arman Khachaturyan
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief criticis es the European Commission's proposal to mandate compliance with a local corporate governance code and to set minimum criteria for these codes. It argues that the European Commission missed an opportunity to set a European corporate governance code in the mid -1990s, and that much of the proposals are simply reactive to events and new legislation in the US. Europe should have highlighted the strength of its diversity, and emphasised that the basic elements of corporate governance are better controlled in the EU than t hey are in the US, rather than embarking on a complex harmonisation exercise.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe