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54752. Special Policy Forum Report: Democracy And The Palestinian Authority — Is Good Governance Essential For Peace?
- Author:
- David Schenker and Khalil Shikaki
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In 1996, Assistant Secretary of State for Near East and South Asian Affairs Robert Pelletreau described democracies as "the best partners for making peace and building prosperity." Nevertheless, democracy is a term seldom mentioned with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. U.S. policy toward the Palestinians and the peace process has been focused on security, but that does not necessarily have to come at the expense of democracy. In fact, a more democratic Palestinian Authority (PA) would enhance security. En route to a peace agreement with Israel, Palestinians will be required to make concessions that will be easier to achieve if a popular consensus for those concessions is built through a democratic process. Democracy will promote better governance, resulting in an improved economy and therefore a better Palestinian neighbor for Israel. Furthermore, Palestinians will be discontented without democracy, for they have a long history of democratic civil institutions, including student councils and municipal elections, as well as an extensive knowledge of and appreciation for Israeli democracy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries
54753. Special Policy Forum Report: Syria's Economy — Prospects For Peace, Aid, And Market Reform
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson, Daniela Gressani, and Eliyahu Kanovsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In many ways, Syria's economy is not very different from that of other countries in the region. Oil is important, accounting for 60 percent of exports. Agriculture is more important than might be expected on the basis of natural endowment: it contributes about 20 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) and about 30 percent of employment. Industry remains very much state led, even when not state owned. The private sector is subject to comprehensive regulations, and foreign trade is less than might be expected for an economy Syria's size. On the other hand, there is a fair amount of labor moving from Syria to neighboring countries. Syria has a young population, so the labor force is growing; young people entering the labor force have a much better education than did the previous generation and therefore seek better jobs and better opportunities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria
54754. The Multilaterals: Status And Prospects
- Author:
- Nicole Brackman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 1, the multilateral track of the Middle East peace process is scheduled to resume in Moscow with the first meeting of the Steering Committee since May 1995. In the wake of Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's election last summer, there was widespread expectation that the multilateral talks would restart, but Egypt insisted no meeting be held until negotiations reopened between Damascus and Jerusalem. The restart of those talks last month paved the way for a revival of the multilateral talks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Jerusalem, Moscow, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Damascus
54755. Syria's Critique Of The U.S. Draft Treaty: A Textual Analysis
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Syria-Israel negotiations are on hold, but Israelis and Syrians have found a way to negotiate through third parties—the media. Two weeks ago, Israel leaked the U.S. draft text of a proposed peace treaty, complete with a timeline for implementation, in the Israeli daily Ha'aretz. Over the last ten days, a surprised and embarrassed Syria has responded with its own leaks through the Lebanese media. Beirut's al-Safir newspaper is the favored recipient of these leaks, the most authoritative of which were a set of interviews by Syrian foreign minister Faruq al-Shara and a document detailing article-by-article amendments to the proposed U.S. text. The Shara interviews highlight Syria's (professed) obsession with dignity as an essential ingredient in negotiations as well as Damascus's demand that the United States procure a clear Israeli commitment to withdraw to the June 4, 1967 borders prior to the renewal of talks. More important, though, is the al-Safir critique of the original U.S. draft treaty. A close reading of that chilly document suggests that Syria is keen to project the image of offering Israel only an arctic-cold peace, correcting the impression advanced by some press reports that al-Shara had offered numerous concessions to Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak during the Shepherdstown talks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria
54756. The U.S. Draft Treaty For Syria-Israel Peace: A Textual Analysis
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson and Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After more than a week of negotiations in Shepherdstown, W.Va., the "working draft" of the Syria-Israel peace treaty reported in yesterday's Ha'aretz notes only one area of seemingly irreconcilable difference between the two parties—over the scope of the demilitarized zone separating the two sides. As currently worded, the text neither rules in nor rules out an Israeli withdrawal to the "June 4, 1967, lines." The draft reflects a document much more detailed than a Camp David-style framework accord or an Oslo-type Declaration of Principles but still far short of a full-blown peace treaty. In tone and wording, it is a throwback to the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, with few improvements and even several drawbacks from that two-decade-old document.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Syria, and Egypt
54757. Special Policy Forum Report: A Syria-Israel Summit -- Prospects For Peace
- Author:
- Raghida Dergham and Joel Singer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 4, 2000, Raghida Dergham, the senior diplomatic correspondent for Al-Hayat newspaper, and Joel Singer, a principal architect of the Oslo Accords and an Israeli participant in the 1996 Wye Plantation negotiations with Syria, addressed the Washington Institute's Policy Forum to discuss the prospects of Syrian-Israeli peace talks in Shepherdstown. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria
54758. The South Lebanon Army And Syria-Israel Talks
- Author:
- Gal Luft
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Syrian Foreign Minister Faruq al-Shara are talking peace at Shepherdstown, the fighting in south Lebanon still goes on. Last time the two leaders met in Washington in December, the party was almost spoiled after a stray shell fired by South Lebanese Army (SLA) gunners hit an elementary school in the Lebanese village of Arab Salim, wounding twenty-four children. Residents of Israel's northern settlements anticipating Hizballah's wrath had to spend the night in their bomb shelters. Only after Israel's prompt apology, describing the incident as "an unfortunate mistake," did Hizballah, breaking with its usual pattern, agree not to retaliate by firing katyusha rockets at Israel's north.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria
54759. Removing Syria From The List Of State Sponsors Of Terrorism: Between Peace And Counterterrorism
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With Syrian-Israeli peace talks underway in Shepherdstown, W.Va., media attention has focused on the shape of a possible peace agreement and the potential for U.S. financial assistance to the parties. Virtually no attention, however, has been paid to the principal legal obstacle in the way of U.S. aid to one of the two putative peacemakers: Syria's place on the State Department's list of countries recognized as "state sponsors of terrorism." It is generally assumed that Syria will "do what it takes" within the context of making peace with Israel to earn its removal from the State Department's list, or that Washington will, in the framework of peace, find enough in Syrian efforts to merit Damascus's decertification as a terrorist-supporting state. In this environment, the potential rises that U.S. antiterrorism efforts will be blurred to fit an emerging Syria-Israel political reality.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria
54760. EMU Effects on International Trade and Investment
- Author:
- Harry Flam and Per Jansson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The partial effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on exports from each EMU member to the rest of the EMU is estimated on annual data for 1967-97, using modern time-series methods. The long-run relations between exchange rate volatility and exports are mostly negative and in several cases insignificantly different from zero. Thus, these estimates do not provide much support for the hypothesis that the elimination of nominal exchange rate volatility will significantly increase trade within the EMU. However, the EMU will presumably lead to geographical concentration of production and therefore indirectly to increased trade within the EMU and, during a transitional stage, to increased foreign direct investment, both within the EMU and between the EMU and the rest of the world.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54761. The Impact of EMU on European Transition Economies
- Author:
- David Begg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- An interesting theory of transition must give a convincing account of structural adjustment and supply side improvement. In this paper, I discuss the incentives for government to undertake costly supply side improvement and how these relate to incentives governing the design of monetary and fiscal policy during transition. The government cares about deviations of inflation, output and government spending from their ideal levels, is subject to a budget constraint in which inflation yields some real revenue, and recognizes the distortionary effects of excess levels of taxation. Costly structural adjustment enhances future output by reducing supply side distortions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54762. From Rhetoric to Policy: Towards Workable Conflict Prevention at the Regional and Global Levels — Report on a Workshop
- Author:
- David Carment, Albrecht Schnabel, and Abdul-Rasheed Draman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This piece constitutes a report of the workshop “From Rhetoric to Policy: Towards Workable Conflict Prevention at the Regional and Global Level” held at INSTRAW, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic from December 14-16, 1998. Jointly organised by the United Nations University and the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, the workshop drew participants from the UN system, the academic community and practitioners in the field. The workshop, which represents the second stage of a general project aimed at 'Translating Rhetoric into Policy,' focussed on examining training needs for conflict prevention through the involvement of local actors.
- Topic:
- Security, Peace Studies, and United Nations
54763. EMU and the Developing Countries
- Author:
- Benjamin J. Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to explore economic and political implications of Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for developing countries. In strictly economics terms, influences will be communicated through both trade and financial channels. Economies in the developing world will be affected by changes in European growth rates as well as by EMU's impact on transaction costs and enterprise competitiveness within Europe; they will also be impacted by changes in the structure and efficiency of Europe's capital markets. Modifications may be anticipated in borrowing and investment practices at the private level as well as in reserve and debt-management policies at the official level. In political terms, developing countries will be most directly influences by the anticipated rivalry between Europe's new single currency, the euro, and the dollar, which will compel developing countries to reconsider their own national currency strategies. Three conclusions stand out. First, except for selected groups of countries with particularly close ties to the EU, most economic linkages appear marginal at best. It is much easier to enumerate possible channels of transmission than to find many that appear quantitatively significant. Second, among economic effects of EMU, financial channels seem to matter more than trade channels. And third, across the full range of possible linkages, the most lasting influences for developing countries may well turn out, notably, to be political rather than either trade or financial. Significant changes are likely in exchange-rates regimes in many parts of the developing world.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Government, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54764. Will the Euro Trigger More Monetary Unions in Africa?
- Author:
- Patrick Honohan and Philip R. Lane
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We analyse the prospects for greater monetary integration in Africa, in the wake of EMU. We argue that the structural characteristics of African economies are quite different to the EMU members but that much can be gained from monetary cooperation, as an external agency of restraint and in promoting stability in the financial sector. EMU has only a marginal impact on the net benefits of monetary cooperation but the euro would be a natural anchor for any African monetary unions. Indeed, the most likely route to new monetary cooperation in Africa is via a common peg to the euro.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
54765. Globalization, Marginalization and Development
- Author:
- S. Mansoob Murshed
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper surveys issues related to globalization, and the obstacles to the successful integration of vulnerable economies. For many developing countries, the positive benefits of the increased globalization that has been taking place since around 1980 remain distant and elusive. The economies of many countries in the developing world remain extremely vulnerable to domestic and external shocks. They have, effectively, become marginalized from the world system. To a great extent, the obstacles to the successful participation of vulnerable developing economies in the international system are rooted in the causes of their underdevelopment and poor economic performance. Nevertheless, the new rules of the game and the international economic environment prevalent since about 1980 following accelerated globalization, leaves them vulnerable in novel ways. Developing in the arrangements for conducting multilateral trade and technology transfer have left nations in the South more vulnerable than in the past. The ability to conduct independent macroeconomic policy is severely constrained. Nations are more reliant on volatile international capital markets, for finance and investment; many developing countries are completely eschewed by international private capital markets. The problem of poverty in many developing countries seems to have been exacerbated following globalization. When we consider the obstacles to the meaningful participation of vulnerable developing economies in the international system, many are domestic in origin, but external factors beyond the control of these countries play an important part as well. Among the former are poorly designed policies to promote growth on the supply-side, macroeconomic mismanagement on the aggregate demand side and institutional failure. In the latter category protectionist tendencies in the North are the most important factor. Many of these appear in the guise of concerns for environmental and labour standards. Globalization does, however, offer new possibilities to developing countries; particularly because shifts in the international division of labour, as well as technological innovations, could favour the South.
- Topic:
- Development, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Political Economy, and Third World
54766. Information Technology and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis
- Author:
- Matti Pohjola
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the impacts of information technology investment on economic growth in a cross-section of 39 countries in the period 1980-95 by applying an explicit model of economic growth, the augmented version of the neoclassical (Solow) growth model. The results based on the full sample of 39 countries indicate that physical capital is a key factor in economic growth in both developed and developing countries. Its influence is even bigger than what is implied by the income share of capital in national income accounts. But neither human capital nor information technology seems to have a significant impact on GDP growth. However, investment in information technology has a strong influence on economic growth in the smaller sample of 23 developed (OECD) countries. Its impact is almost as large as that of the rest of the capital stock. But since the share of IT investment in GDP, although growing, is still much lower than the share of non-IT investment, the net social return to IT capital is much larger than the return to non-IT capital: 60-80 per cent versus 4 per cent, respectively. The estimated return is very high; about twice the return to equipment investment and 10-12 times the return to R obtained in similar models as the one applied here.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Science and Technology
54767. Hong Kong Update: Fall 2000
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Ron Arculli, Steve Tsang, and Sunny Kai-sun Kwong
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Since the Hong Kong Update's first issue was published in September 1997, the purpose of the bulletin has been to gauge accurately the continuing evolution of Hong Kong by presenting a broad spectrum of views on developments in the new Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The Update has presented views from Washington, Hong Kong, and other areas of the world by inviting authors from both the U.S. Congress and Hong Kong SAR government; Washington and Hong Kong policy community; and U.S., Hong Kong, and international academics.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, and Hong Kong
54768. Hong Kong Update: Summer 2000
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Michael M.Y. Suen, and Eric Bjornlund
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Sir Winston Churchill once said, “At the bottom of all the tributes paid to democracy is the little man, walking into the little booth, with a little pencil, making a little cross on a little bit of paper—no amount of rhetoric or voluminous discussion can possibly diminish the overwhelming importance of the point.” Churchill's statement in 1944 underlines the determination of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government to encourage voters to turn out in record numbers for this September's Legislative Council ( LegCo) elections.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Hong Kong
54769. Hong Kong Update: Spring 2000
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Barry Mortimer, Byron Weng, and James C. Hsiung
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Last year was a momentous time for Hong Kong's new mini- constitution, the Basic Law. The history is too well known to detail here. In brief, the Court of Final Appeal (CFA) decided the right of abode cases (Ng Ka Ling and Chan Kam Nga). Later, the Hong Kong government sought and obtained a “clarification” of the judgment and the chief executive applied to the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (NPC) for a further interpretation of the sections interpreted by the CFA (particularly Article 24(2)(3) of the Basic Law). The decision of the CFA stood, but for the future the Standing Committee provided the interpretation contended for by the Hong Kong government. (Should it be thought that the new interpretation was entirely arbitrary it accorded with the one earlier found to be the true interpretation by the Court of Appeal.) Many lawyers, commentators, politicians, and academics alleged that, in consequence, rule of law had been damaged and even that the independence of the judiciary had been diminished. Now that the dust has settled, the time has come to assess calmly the main issues that caused the controversy and see where we now stand.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Hong Kong
54770. Europe and the Mediterranean: The Barcelona Process Five Years On
- Author:
- George Joffé
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- In November 1995, the European Union signed a wide-ranging declaration with the twelve littoral states of the South Mediterranean at the end of a major conference in Barcelona. The declaration outlined an agreed policy for future relations between the EU and its Mediterranean partners which sought to create a zone of shared stability, prosperity and peace. This policy is designed to condition relations throughout the Mediterranean on a new basis of partial economic integration and cooperation over mutual security issues, together with support for regional political, cultural and social development. It has extremely ambitious objectives and represents a new departure for the European Union, although the means proposed to achieve it have been modest. Now, almost five years after its inception, it is appropriate to consider to what degree it has begun to realize the objectives it set for itself, given the fact that they should be achieved by the year 2010.
- Topic:
- Security and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North Africa, and Barcelona
54771. Emerging Threats on the Internet
- Author:
- Mariyam Joyce-Hasham
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Fears about extremist groups operating on the Internet are on the increase. This is paralleled by concern about the ways in which such groups can use Internet technology to disrupt or undermine familiar ways of life in stable societies. The Internet appeals particularly to groups that operate at substate level, most visibly the neo-Nazis and hate groups at the forefront of the resurgent white pride movement in America.
- Topic:
- Security and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
54772. An Ever Larger Europe
- Author:
- Julie Smith
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Thirteen countries are currently seeking to join the European Union. Several more countries, including some Southeast European states that have already signed Stability and Association Agreements with the EU, not to mention some of the Caucasian and Central Asian members of the CIS, have also expressed a desire to be considered for membership at some point in the future. While those former Soviet states, with the possible exception of Moldova, are unlikely to join, the EU is committed to enlarging to the south and east.
- Topic:
- International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Moldova
54773. Trade and Environment After Seattle
- Author:
- Duncan Brack
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The interrelationship between international trade and environmental protection is becoming increasingly important – and controversial. The volume of world trade in goods topped $5 trillion for the first time in 1996, having grown at an average rate of about 8% a year since the signing of the Marrakesh agreement in 1994 which marked the completion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. The set of agreements administered by the World Trade Organization (WTO), centred around the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and covering areas such as agriculture, textiles, services, intellectual property, technical barriers to trade and health standards, represents a significant extension in scope compared with its pre-Uruguay Round version. In turn this means that international trade regulation increasingly impinges on other areas of public policy.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
54774. Gas For Oil Markets
- Author:
- Koji Morita
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Public projections by the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the European Commission suggest that, with present policies, world consumption of gas will roughly double by 2020, taking about 5% of the primary energy market from other fuels. About half this gain will be at the expense of more carbon-intensive fossil fuels, mainly coal, but the other half will replace carbon-free nuclear energy. The net effect on the growth of greenhouse gas emissions will therefore be small. For comparison, gas consumption increased in the past 20 years by almost 80%, at the expense of other fossil fuels. Half the increased gas demand is projected for developing countries, compared with 45% of the increase over the past 20 years and their present share of about a quarter of total world gas consumption.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
54775. Changing Oil
- Author:
- Norman Selley
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Black gold, as oil is sometimes called, has a double image. On the negative side crude oil is typically seen only when accidents occur – when it spills from ships, pollutes beaches or kills wildlife. The positive is taken for granted. Users rely on oil's refined products to power transport and heat or cool homes invisibly, as required. The twentieth century progressed hand in hand with increased usage of oil, in times of both war and peace, and can justifiably be described as the Oil Era.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology, and Third World
54776. Financial Services Liberalization in China: Conservative Gradualism
- Author:
- Chen Yixin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Recent years have seen increasing liberalization of trade in financial services associated with the GATT / WTO negotiations. The Agreement concluded on 13 December 1997 by 70 WTO members will result in a significant impact on the financial services sector for these members. Although China has not yet been admitted to membership of the WTO, it has come under pressure to open its financial services market. Market access in this sector has been not only one of the major issues in its WTO accession talks, but also intrinsically linked to China's ongoing domestic financial system reforms, consistent with the gradualist scheme for its overall economic reform. China has been liberalizing its financial services sector, but only gradually. This paper outlines the reforms in its financial sector since 1979, and then offers an explanation for the slow speed of reform .
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Shanghai
54777. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2000
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index declined 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index declined 0.1 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity. The slowdown of the Leading Index is primarily a result of the sustained inverted yield curve, shorter manufacturing hours brought about by tapering consumer demand, and loss of confidence on the part of both business executives and consumers in the future direction of the economy. Since reaching a peak in September, the Coincident Index remains fairly flat, consistent with a moderation in the pace of economic activity. The six-month change of the Leading Index has been declining for 7 consecutive months with the most recent two months having declined over one percent. Prior to these past seven months, the last time the Leading Index posted a decline in the six-month change was in August of 1995.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
54778. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2000
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity ahead. Since the high of 106.3 in January of this year, the Leading Index was down in eight of the past ten months. This is in sharp contrast to a 1.5 to 2 percent gain annually in the previous three years. The coincident to lagging ratio, which also tends to lead business cycle peaks, reached a high of 110.3 last March and has declined to 109.3 in November. A decrease in the ratio means a sharper increase in the Lagging Index, which measures the cost of doing business, relative to the Coincident Index. A further, more dramatic weakening of the Leading Index in the next few months, together with a continued decline in the coincident to lagging ratio, would confirm the danger of a downturn.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
54779. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2000
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index held steady in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing down to a more moderate pace. A cooling off in the economy from its faster pace earlier this year and last year is reflected in the nine straight months that the Leading Index has been either flat or declining. This was confirmed by the Coincident Index which registered a decline this month after 13 months of continuous gains. The leveling off of the leading and coincident indexes results from the sustained inverted yield curve and the tight labor market brought about by prolonged economic expansion.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
54780. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2000
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.4 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity continues to grow although more moderately. Strong income gains, together with increases in employment and industrial production, continue to drive the Coincident Index higher. The flat performance of the leading index partly results from the sustained inverted yield curve, which has the potential of hindering strong economic growth in the near term.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
54781. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 2000
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing to a more moderate pace during the second half of the year. The deceleration in the performance of the leading index appears to be showing up in the more modest growth of the coincident index. The perverse behavior of the leading indicators, particularly the sustained inverted yield curve, will nevertheless be a negative factor for the economy over the near term.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
54782. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2000
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.1 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to a slowing in the pace of economic activity for the second half of the year. The decline in the leading index over the past 6 months signifies a moderation in the momentum of the economy. After several months of strong gains, the unchanged level of the coincident index for the month of July is consistent with the deceleration in the performance of the leading index. No change in the coincident index, coupled with a decline in the lagging index, resulted in a rise in the coincident-to-lagging ratio. The decline in the leading index would be a stronger signal of an economic slowdown had it been matched by a decline in the ratio.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
54783. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 2000
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.8 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The flat pace in the leading indicators in the recent months clearly points to moderating momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index, even as growth in the leading index slows. If sharp increases in the lagging index continue, cyclical imbalance could jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
54784. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2000
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.2 percent in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The modest pace in the leading index in the recent months clearly indicates some loss of momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income, and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index. Future interest-rate increases remain to be the most significant threat to the current economic expansion.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
54785. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2000
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.5 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.6 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components continue to show a strong economy: The indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though at a slower pace than that of the last six months. The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion remains the interest-rate increases at hand, and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve action. The most immediate risk would be a sustained inverted yield curve.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
54786. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2000
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index held steady in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through March. Coupled with no change in the lagging index, the coincident-to-lagging ratio shows that last months decline was merely a one-month aberration. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though not at the pace of the last six months. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in March, but should be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
54787. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2000
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.8 percent in February. Taken together, the long-term outlook remains positive: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the second month of the year. With the release of February data, the expansion that began in the early 1990's is now the longest expansion in U.S. history. Despite a decline in the leading indicators, continued economic growth is expected. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability, as measured by the lagging index, must be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
54788. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2000
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the first month of the year. With the release of January data, the economy has tied the expansion of the 1960's as the longest expansion in U.S. history. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in January.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
54789. Re-Armament in Sierra Leone: One Year After the Lomé Peace Agreement
- Author:
- Eric Berman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- On 7 July 1999, the government of Sierra Leone and the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) signed the Lomé Peace Agreement in an effort to end over eight years of civil war between the government and the RUF. This confl ict resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of more than 2 million people – well over one-third of the total population – many of whom are now refugees in neighbouring countries. A central component of this agreement called for the RUF to disarm. But this did not happen. Instead, a year later, the RUF leader, Foday Sankoh, was in the custody of the Sierra Leonean government and the future of the peace accord was in grave doubt.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa
54790. ASEM 3: More Talk or Move Forward?
- Author:
- Yeo Lay Hwee
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Third ASEM Summit (ASEM 3) was held in Seoul on 20-21 October 2000. Openly, those who participated in the meeting, and several of the Asian newspapers, particularly the Korean papers, were happy to hail the meeting as a "success". What does it mean? With the presence of all heavy-weight European and Asian leaders - Tony Blair, Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schroeder, Zhu Rongji, Yoshiro Mori, Abdurrahman Wahid, and the adoption of three Documents - The Chairman's Statement; Seoul Declaration for Peace on the Korean Peninsula; and the Asia-Europe Cooperation Framework 2000, it is possibly the best outcome one could hope for under the cloud of rumours of forum-fatigue, acrimonious debates about human rights, increasing divergences and complaints on the slow progress of some key initiatives such as the Trade Facilitation Action Plan (TFAP) during the preparatory process. That the meeting was held smoothly under tight security without any major disruptions from anti-globalisation protestors was another triumph for the Korean government, especially in the wake of a series of street protests and demonstrations that targeted and disrupted several international meetings since the Seattle fiasco in November last year.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Asia
54791. The fall of Milosevic and the Kosovo problem
- Author:
- Kenneth Schmidt Hansen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Despite all precautions taking by Slobodan Milosevic the Presidential elections held in Yugoslavia 24 September 2000 turned out to be his Waterloo. It is an outspread belief that the political regime in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that Slobodan Milosevic represented was one of the last obstacles to bringing peace and stability to the Balkans. Despite this outspread belief, it is in this paper argued that the problems in Kosovo are not just the product of the policy pursued by Milosevic which implies that they not necessarily will be easier solved in the years to come even though a democratic revolution has taken place in Yugoslavia. No solution to the Kosovo problem seems available that will satisfy both the Serbs and the Kosovo-Albanians. But perhaps most interesting, it seems reasonable to argue that even maintaining status quo, i.e. not deciding for the final status of Kosovo, might turn out to be a problem for the current democratic developments in Belgrade.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Albania
54792. Back in the U.S.S.R.? Russia as an Actor in World Politics
- Author:
- Mette Skak
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The gap between the structural reality surrounding Russia and the cognitive level of Russian foreign policy making is highlighted. The literature on Russian foreign policy is reviewed, distinguishing between 'optimists' and 'pessimists'. The analysis differentiates between 'milieu goals' and 'possession goals' and traces the pursuit of these goals in Czarist Russian, Soviet and postcommunist Russian foreign policy. The conclusion is that possession goals – hard-core realism, as it were – remain the dominant feature of Russian foreign policy (as in the Soviet era). This challenges the theory of democratic peace. This finding is then subjected to a policy-oriented criticism of Russian foreign policy. Three examples of dysfunctional Russian foreign policy are addressed: the misguided pursuit of multipolarity, myth and reality about regional priorities, and Russian self-destructive partisanship in ex-Yugoslavia. The final section raises the eternal Russian questions of Kto vinovat? and Shto delat'?On the causal factors behind the observed traits of irrationality, the analysis emphasises the volatile, 'praetorian' decision-making environment. Concerning policy implications, the dialogue with Russia must address features of realism, for instance by marketing the virtue of internal balancing, and as for concessions, formally dismiss foreign policy doctrines of spheres-of-influence like the Monroe doctrine as anachronistic in an era of globalization.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia
54793. The Emergence of the New Nordic Co-operation
- Author:
- Tom Schumacher
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Nordic Co-operation is an outstanding example of how radically many international institutions changed their functions, working structures and not at least their motives of existence since 1989. It is significant that this regional institution is now aiming to influence developments in third countries and consequently plays its own role in the reconstruction of Europe after the end of the Cold War. This article investigates the motives behind this transformation. After reviewing theoretical and empirical research on institutional adaptation done by other scholars of International Relations, the dimensions of change in Nordic Co-operation will be shown by contrasting its motives, institutions and tasks in the decades before and after 1989. One interesting and quite relevant factor seems to be a certain dynamic of development which is a result of reciprocal interaction with other international institutions in Northern Europe. This aspect will be a special focus of this paper.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54794. "War is Never Civilised";: Civilisation, Civil Society and the Kosovo War
- Author:
- Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- 'War is never civilised', Prime Minister Tony Blair declared on 10 June 1999 as the Serb government yielded to NATO's bombing campaign, 'but war can be necessary to uphold civilisation' he went on (Blair, 1999a). Thus 79 days of war were brought to an end by the assertion that war had secured for the future the principles on which the post-Cold War European order was founded. For that reason the Kosovo war provides an opportunity to study what the West believed to be the foundation of the new European order. It is important to use this opportunity because the reflexive confusion which followed the end of the Cold War has finally settled in a new order. To understand how the West constructs this order is a major concern for anyone how wants a glimpse of what the twenty-first century has to offer international relations.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, and War
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54795. European State Formation 1900-2000
- Author:
- Birthe Hansen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This paper focuses on twentieth century European state formation. The purpose is to present a survey of these, to point at significant patterns, and to offer an explanation of why the states were formed.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54796. The NATO of the Future: Intervention and Integration in Europe
- Author:
- Bertel Heurlin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- There is good reason to take a closer look at NATO. The former Cold War alliance has dominated the international arena for a considerable amount of time. Should NATO have been dissolved long ago? What are the reasons for NATO's revival? Not only is NATO expanding, it has also recently conducted a war in the very heart of Europe. What can this renaissance and hectic NATO-activity lead to? Many politicians, commentators and observers discern the development of a new cold war, not least because of the lack of Russian support for, and understanding of, NATO's bombings in the Balkans. In May 1999, a prominent Russian security expert alleged that “if NATO commits a mistake such as the bombings in Yugoslavia, there would be a risk of Russian retaliation with nuclear weapons.2 Others, on the other hand, predict a collapse of the organisation as a whole because of internal disputes among the member states due to the extremely complex situation in the Balkans.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Yugoslavia, and Balkans
54797. Integration Policy: Between Foreign Policy and Diffusion
- Author:
- Morten Kelstrup
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This working paper is a discussion of the concept of “integration policy” and its application, in particular to the study of policies of individual states towards European integration. The paper takes its point of departure in traditional studies of foreign policy. It illustrates different approaches to the study of foreign policy. It claims that when we are dealing with policy towards integration, for instance European integration, focus has to be redirected from the study of foreign policy to what we might call integration policy. Different dimensions of integration policy are specified. European integration is interpreted at being somewhere between intergovernmental cooperation and supranational decision making. It is shown how integration policy, as integration become more intense, will develop into a proliferated and multidimensional set of policies and possibly develop further into “diffusion”. The overall contribution of the paper is to conceptualise a new, grey area and to contribute to the study of different kinds of integration policy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54798. The Coming Apathy: Africa Policy Under a Bush Administration
- Author:
- Salih Booker
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- "There's got to be priorities," George W. Bush responded when asked about Africa in the second presidential campaign debate. Africa did not make his short list: the Middle East, Europe, the Far East, and the Americas. A Bush presidency portends a return to the blatantly anti-African policies of the Reagan-Bush years, characterized by a general disregard for black people and a perception of Africa as a social welfare case. Vice President Dick Cheney is widely expected to steer the younger Bush on most policy matters especially foreign affairs. Cheney's perspective on Africa in the 1980s was epitomized by his 1986 vote in favor of keeping Nelson Mandela in prison and his consistent opposition to sanctions against apartheid South Africa.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and South Africa
54799. HIV/AIDS and Failed Development
- Author:
- Joe Collins and Bill Rau
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- HIV/AIDS continues to cut into the fabric of African households and societies. It is not uncommon to hear that a quarter to a third of the adult population in several african countries are HIV infected. Against this reality of a rapidly spreading epidemic, some two decades of prevention interventions have met with but limited success. Whatever successes there might be are not to be lightly dismissed. The reasons for those successes, however, are not well understood and thus not readily applicable elsewhere. To date, most prevention efforts have focused on increasing individual awareness about risks of transmission and promoting individual risk reduction through a variety of means.
- Topic:
- Development, Human Welfare, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- Africa
54800. Turning Points in the Korean Space-Economy: From the Developmental State to Intercity Competition, 1953-2000
- Author:
- Mike Douglass
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Territorial development processes and patterns in Korea from the 1950s have encountered four turning points. The first involved the reconstitution of the Korean nation state, which, following radical land reform, implicitly focused on the expansion of the Seoul Capital Region. The second came with the launching of strategies for export-oriented urbanindustrial growth in the early 1960s, which led to the development, in the 1970s, of an urban-industrial corridor moving from the rapidly expanding metropolis of Seoul to the southeast coast, centered on Pusan and heavy industrial complexes. The third turning point was brought about by rising wages and labor costs; the ascending value of the Korean currency; and the overseas relocation of labor-intensive industries, which saw a repolarization of growth in Seoul and a deindustrialization of other metropolitan economies. While some regions outside of Seoul began to register high rates of economic growth around automotive and electronics industries in the early 1990s, this pattern was abruptly challenged at the fourth turning point, the 1997 financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia. Recovery from the crisis is being pursued under a fundamentally new political and economic strategy of decentralized policymaking. The major territorial development question facing Korea at this turning point is whether localities can create capacities to rebuild and sustain their economies through direct engagement in a turbulent world economy.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, Korea, and Southeast Asia