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54402. The U.S. Perspective on Globalization
- Author:
- Stuart Eizenstat
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- The Overseas Development Council was prescient in calling for an international dialogue on globalization last year. It is a particularly important time for a dialogue on the relationship between globalization and development, given new concerns raised by the global financial crisis.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
54403. Environment and Trade: A Framework for Moving Forward in the WTO
- Author:
- Gary P. Sampson
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Environmentalists and trade advocates have clashed frequently in recent years. Environmentalists argue that international trade rules restrict the legitimate use of trade measures to enforce environmental standards internationally and undermine environmental standards at home. Trade officials argue that trade measures are not the appropriate tools to dal with environmental problems, no is the World Trade Organization (WTO) the appropriate institution. They contend that environmentalists need to put their own house in order rather than resort to trade measures to achieve their objectives.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
54404. Croatia—Post-Tudjman Politics
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Croatia is preparing for two elections—parliamentary polls on January 3 and, following the recent death of President Franjo Tudjman, a presidential contest on January 24. Thus, the population has an opportunity to choose real change, and to set Croatia firmly on the path of economic transformation and European integration, after a period of stilted political and economic development, marked by cronyism, under Tudjman. However, this scenario is by no means certain.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Eastern Europe
54405. Middle East—Renewed Peace Negotiations
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- It was exactly 18 years ago this week that former Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin rushed from his hospital room, where he was being treated for a broken hip, descended on a surprised Knesset, and, within a few hours, forced through a bill imposing Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights. This same sense of urgency now animates Prime Minister Ehud Barak in his attempts to negotiate a peace agreement with Syria that will, perforce, require the abrogation of Begin's initiative.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Palestine
54406. Europe—Defence Cooperation
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- European defence cooperation will be a key issue at this week's European Council (EC) summit. It looks likely that ministers will agree that Europe should move towards an autonomous military capability independent of NATO. However, significant problems remain before these plans can be realised in operational terms.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54407. United States—Interest Rate Outlook
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The quarter-point increase in the fed funds rate announced at the November 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was accompanied by the adoption of a neutral directive for the inter-meeting period, in place of the bias towards tightening in force since early October. The directive indicates that the Fed intends the rise to be the last of this year. However, the OECD, in its recent Economic Outlook, predicted that another one percentage point increase in the fed funds rate will be needed to restore demand and supply to equilibrium. While the economy will probably not slow sufficiently of its own accord, the incentives to defer action into 2000 mean that rates are likely to remain as they are during 1999, though probably associated with an announced bias towards tightening.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
54408. United Kingdom—Ulster Prospects
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) Council will meet on November 27 to deliberate the political understanding reached between First Minister-elect David Trimble and the Sinn Fein leadership. Trimble will probably achieve the level of support necessary for devolution to occur in Northern Ireland, by a narrow margin. However, significant political difficulties, remain to be addressed in the months following devolution. The medium-term prospects for the peace process will primarily depend on the IRA's approach to implementing its commitment to decommission.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
54409. Vietnam—Reform Outlook
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Despite Hanoi's repeated assertions of its commitment to reform, the gap between the government's stated policies and what happens on the ground remains as wide as ever. The root of this problem is the diffusion of power throughout the multiple layers of government and bureaucracy. There are no quick-fix solutions which will centralise political power. A combination of continued global economic integration and exposure to outside ideas, allied with the government's own initiatives in areas such as administrative reform, provide the most likely route to strengthening the central administration's power.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, and Southeast Asia
54410. Indonesia—New Government
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Compromise and accommodation are the watchwords of the new Indonesian government. During the past two weeks, the top legislative and executive positions have been distributed to the leaders of four of the country's five major political parties. The new cabinet, announced on October 26, continues this trend. Active and retired members of the military hold six seats, giving them a larger representation than any single political party. Not only President Abdurrahman Wahid, but all of Indonesia's political leaders, are hoping that by sharing power, rather than struggling for supremacy, conflict can be minimised and some measure of reform achieved. However, it is likely that governmental splits will emerge in the medium term.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
54411. Russia—Caucasian Consequences
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Russia's military operations in the North Caucasus have, so far, received broad domestic support and enhanced the popularity of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This stands in contrast to the 1994-96 conflict. The difference can be explained by the successful characterisation of the enemy as terrorists combined with the low level of conscript casualties. Moscow politicians have united broadly behind the military strategy, with opposition limited to extreme reformist groups. Two key consequences emerge from this situation. Firstly, Putin's political future is tied to the continued success of the campaign. Secondly, the nationalist fervour sparked by the conflict has reduced international investor confidence and led to domestic calls for increased defence spending.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Caucasus
54412. Japan—Economic Recovery
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Pessimism surrounding the Japanese economy has lessened as, against most expectations, recovery continues to take hold. Analysts who predicted further contraction in Japan's GDP during fiscal 1999 have altered to a more optimistic outlook. The reason for this turnaround is a general change in perception of the recession. Rather than the downturn being part of a decade-long stagnation persisting since the collapse of the bubble economy in 1991, the recession was in fact of more recent origin and, therefore, of a less intractable nature than commonly supposed.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- Japan and East Asia
54413. Serbia—Opposition Division
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Daily demonstrations calling for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to resign have, over recent weeks, been poorly attended. In part this reflects the opposition parties' failure to resolve their differences. This has led to growing scepticism in the West about the Serbian people's ability to bring about political change. In these circumstances, the international community may alter its policy towards the country. However, greater efforts to support the democratic opposition could prove counter-productive in the short-to-medium term due to anti-Western sentiment in the aftermath of the NATO air campaign. In the longer term the West will need to reconsider its policy towards the Balkans if it wants to play a constructive role in regional democratisation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, NATO, Democratization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Mongolia, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Balkans
54414. Argentina—Opposition
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The outright victory of the Alliance candidate, Fernando de la Rua, on the first round of voting in the presidential elections on October 24, reflects the desire for a change of political style. De la Rua's approach to government will be less personalist and more consensual than that of the outgoing president, Carlos Menem. While economic policy is unlikely to change in any fundamental way, the new government will be under pressure to root out corruption. It will be the first time since the return to civilian rule in 1983 that a government lacks a majority in either chamber of Congress, which may strengthen democratic institutions.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Argentina
54415. Indonesia—Military Politics
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The Indonesian army has, so far, failed to derail President BJ Habibie's plans for East Timorese self-determination. Nevertheless, military leaders have reasserted themselves as key players in domestic politics by imposing a high cost on politicians who fail to take sufficient account of their agenda. Civilian contenders for political power are actively courting army support. A likely consequence will be the emergence of a civilian-led government with close ties to the military. Opposition leader Megawati Sukarnoputri is the front-runner for the presidency, possibly with Army Chief General Wiranto as her vice-president.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
54416. United States—Senatorial Stability?
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Debate surrounding the US elections in 2000 has centred on the contests for the presidency, and control of the House of Representatives. Far less attention has been placed on the partisan balance within the Senate. During the past two decades, the upper chamber has increased its influence over policy direction, a trend that appears likely to continue. Growing senatorial influence will act as a moderating force in US politics regardless of who occupies the White House or which party holds a majority in the House.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
54417. EU—Membership Indecision
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The attractions of the single european currency are likely to draw the Scandinavian countries into the euro-area by around 2003. However, the outlook for United Kingdom accession is complicated by differences in its economic profile compared with the rest of the euro-area, combined with its enduringly euro-sceptical public opinion. These factors are likely to postpone its accession until later in the decade.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
54418. Middle East—Peace Process Unfrozen
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Last week's signing of an Israeli–Palestinian agreement at Sharm al-Sheikh represents an important development in the search for a lasting settlement in the Middle East. The deal illustrates that it is possible to reach an agreement from which all parties will gain, while also exposing enduring problems. The progress made at Sharm al-Sheikh represents, as Nabil Shaath of the Palestinian authority described, an 'unfreezing' of the peace process. Whether the whole process can be infused with greater warmth depends firstly on US efforts to impel the Syrian–Israeli peace negotiations; secondly, it relies on the ability of the regional leaders to make the compromises necessary to reach a peace that all can present as a victory to their domestic constituencies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria
54419. Russia—Dagestan Crisis
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The present incursion of Islamic rebels into Dagestan is not the prelude to a re-run of the Chechen war across the Russian periphery. However, it highlights Moscow's failure to adequately monitor developments in the North Caucasus region and the lack of military preparedness for dealing with internal rebellions. Despite the potential for increased violence, weak central government control is likely to prevail across the region, but only because for the majority of the local population, the alternatives appear even less palatable.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Russia and North Caucasus
54420. United States—Iraq Policy
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- In the past nine months, the United States and the United Kingdom have pursued a low-intensity military campaign against Iraq. Such actions have been made easier by a lack of political scrutiny. However, the US administration in particular now faces mounting criticism from France, China and Russia, who favour a relaxation of policy, and domestic US interest groups favouring a more activist stance. Despite these pressures, US President Bill Clinton is unlikely to change policy significantly in his remaining 18 months of office.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and France
54421. Russia—Debt Rollover
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- On July 28, the IMF's Board of Directors announced their approval of a 4.5 billion dollar loan to Russia. Rather than representing a breakthrough deal, the agreement is merely the latest chapter in the cycle of non–compliance and renegotiation that has characterised the Fund's relationship with Moscow. With presidential and parliamentary polls scheduled during the next twelve months, electoral pressures will almost certainly prevent the latest macroeconomic programme being implemented. Moreover, unless the root cause of Russia's economic problems—its dire GDP growth rate—is rectified, a further round of comprehensive renegotiations will be required.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Moscow
54422. United States -- Economic Slowdown?
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- In recent weeks, economic data has produced conflicting signals about the strength of domestic demand within the US economy. A majority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believes that growth will decelerate and that only a small tightening of monetary policy will be necessary in the short term. However, the Federal Reserve has consistently underestimated domestic demand, and there are signs that the economy is still buoyant. Moreover, with improving economic prospects in Europe and Asia, the external forces encouraging lower US interest rates are likely to be reversed. The combination of these factors could put pressure on the Fed to tighten further.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Asia
54423. Kosovo—New Dawn for an Ethical Foreign Policy?
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The success of NATO in forcing the Serbian army to quit Kosovo has led some western leaders, notably the UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, to espouse a new 'moral' emphasis in foreign policy. While a complete abandonment of self–interest for ethics can be dismissed, there are important new factors affecting the conduct of international affairs, which vary in regional applicability.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
54424. Iran — Protest Aftermath
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Despite last week's crackdown on pro-reform demonstrations, there is still considerable momentum behind President Mohamed Khatami's political liberalisation drive. While the democratisation movement may have suffered a short-term setback and is likely to encounter further opposition from right-wing clerics, Khatami's reform coalition remains in place and is still likely to be buoyed by next year's parliamentary election results. Nonetheless, the president needs quickly to reassert his commitment to change in the run-up to the election.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
54425. India and Pakistan’s Fissile Material and Nuclear Weapons Inventory, end of 1998
- Author:
- David Albright
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- Estimating the size of India and Pakistan’s inventory of separated weapon-grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU) has become more difficult following their nuclear tests in May, 1998. Both countries treat these numbers as highly classified, partly because such estimates provide a direct indication of the number of nuclear weapons they possess. In the case of Pakistan, what can be surmised is that it has resumed full-scale production of HEU, following a declared moratorium on such production since 1991. Abdul Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan’s uranium enrichment program, announced soon after the Pakistani tests that his country had never stopped making HEU. Although his comment has been greeted skeptically, it indicates that Pakistan may have resumed making weapon-grade uranium well before its tests in May, 1998.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Uranium, and Plutonium
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, and India
54426. Evaluating the Post-Cold War Policy of the United States
- Author:
- Jonathan Dean
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Ambassador Jonathan Dean, Adviser on International Security Issues, Union of Concerned Scientists, presentation to the PDA symposium Ten Years After the Wall: Trends in post-Cold War U.S. Security Policy held at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 11 November 1999.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
54427. Islam In Economic Organizations
- Author:
- Ayşe Buğra
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- This project approaches the political economy of Islamic resurgence in Turkey by exploring different uses of Islam as a strategic resource. The study is organized in five parts: The first section situates Islamic resurgence in its international and domestic context and shows that Political Islam in Turkey derives its strength largely from its ability to respond to the challenges of the current environment. The second section looks at the manifestations of Islam in business life through an analysis of a) MÜSİAD (The Association of Independent Industrialists and Businessmen) that could successfully bring together a large number of enterprises of different sizes located in different geographical regions of the country, and b) special financial institutions as well as other, more informal arrangements used to generate investment funds on the basis of "relations of trust among the believers". In the third section, marketing strategies directed to Muslim consumers are explored through an analysis of certain advertising agencies and TV channels either owned by sect affiliated groups or known by their closeness to Political Islam represented by RP/FP. In the fourth section, the development of the labor union confederation Hak-Is, an important element in the RP/FP constituency, is discussed. Finally, the conclusion presents a summary of the findings. The findings of the study in these areas suggest that what could be called the economic world of Islam in Turkey is formed by networks of social relations which do not constitute a coherent whole, but appear as separate power blocs which try to reach those groups that feel alienated form the secular westernized political and economic establishment for the generation of investment of funds, for the marketing of specialized products, or in organized interest articulation and representation by business associations and labor unions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Islam, Political Economy, Business, and Labor Unions
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
54428. Peacekeeping and Intervention in the Former Yugoslavia: Broader Implications of the Regional Case
- Author:
- Plamen Pantev
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- The aims of this research report are: First, to substantiate the meaning of the terms "intervention" and "peacekeeping" in the cases of Bosnia and Kosovo and how this may influence the broader interpretation of these activities in the post-Cold War period. Second, by learning from intervention and peacekeeping, as well as from conflict prevention and post-conflict rehabilitation in former Yugoslavia, to draft the prerequisites of a fundamentally new and more effective approach to international legal regulation of international relations, including to the timely management of regional conflicts. Third, to present some of the other interests beyond the moral and humanitarian ones that motivated the intervention, the peacekeeping and the strenuous peace building efforts in the post-Dayton and the post-Kosovo periods. The realisation of these tasks may facilitate theoretical and political work for shaping a more secure post-Cold War world.
- Topic:
- Peacekeeping, Humanitarian Intervention, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, and Balkans
54429. Conflict Prevention in the Baltic States: The OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
- Author:
- Rob Zaagman
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- The importance of national minority questions has long been recognised by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and this organisation has dealt with them extensively. Initially overshadowed by the East-West stand-off, minority issues were framed exclusively in terms of individual human rights, in particular the rights of persons belonging to national minorities. In “post-Wall” Europe, however, the explosive potential of many of them —e.g., in Yugoslavia and the Caucasus—became all too apparent. It also became clear that in this new era international violence would be mainly a consequence of domestic conflicts. Moreover, soon after the break-up of the Soviet Union the issue of the ethnic Russians outside the Russian Federation became an important factor in international relations in the OSCE area. As a result, minority issues are now mainly seen from the angle of conflict prevention, although this does include the continued pursuit of the implementation of human rights. The importance the OSCE attaches to minority issues as problems of peace and security is reflected most prominently in the office of the High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM) which was established in 1992 to prevent violent ethnic conflict. Equally, it finds its reflection in the mandates of most, if not all, of the long-term missions the OSCE has established over the years, of which inter-ethnic issues are the main and sometimes exclusive component. These developments fit in the increased emphasis the OSCE has been putting on conflict prevention, playing the role of an impartial, non-coercive third party. Against this background, the tense inter-ethnic relations in Estonia and Latvia were addressed early on by the OSCE. Even though no inter-ethnic violence had taken place, a number of factors made for a volatile mix in both Baltic states: firstly, the existence of domestic tensions between a large minority of mainly Russians without citizenship who had to get used to postSoviet realities and a majority determined to preserve and strengthen its own identity; and secondly, increasing international tensions because of the active interest which neighbouring Russia, mainly for geopolitical reasons, was taking in the condition of its kinfolk in Estonia and Latvia. By contrast, these factors were absent in the third Baltic state, Lithuania. As analysed in the following, the situations in Estonia and Latvia were typically cases for which the OSCE High Commissioner had been established. They demonstrate the extent to which international involvement can keep domestic conflicts tractable—by helping the parties to devise policies and positions which avoid an escalation of disputes and possibly irreconcilable differences—and thus at the same time prevent the build-up of international conflict potential. They are also showcases for the specific approach the OSCE High Commissioner has developed in dealing with tense inter-ethnic situations. Although for reasons of space the main emphasis of this paper will be on Estonia, it should be realised that many similar issues are at stake in Latvia.
- Topic:
- Security, Minorities, Conflict, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States
54430. The Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Minority Language Policies: Case Studies on Wales, Ireland and the Basque Country
- Author:
- François Grin and Francois Vaillancourt
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- The main contribution of the monograph is to demonstrate that it is possible to assess the output and costs of various language policies in such a way as to allow an explicit evaluation and ranking in terms of their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. To our knowledge, this study is the first of its kind, because it stresses the role of common units of measurement in order to make it possible to compare policies. We have therefore attempted to develop an approach different from that adopted in many existing discussions of the implementation of language policies. Such discussions often focus on the targets chosen (sometimes elaborating on targets put forward in earlier policy documents), and on the specific measures adopted to meet these targets; sometimes they offer a descriptive presentation of the effects of such measures. For example, a language planning office may set, as a target, the increase in the level of minority language skills of all teachers and school administrators in a particular region, whether they do or do not work in an establishment which uses the minority language as a medium of instruction. The authorities can then adopt corresponding measures, such as the legal requirement that all schoolteachers meet certain proficiency levels in the minority language. If some survey, five years on, confirms that the average competence level of schoolteachers in the minority language has risen, this will be a satisfactory result, but a moderately surprising one; at most, it would suggest that the “technical effectiveness condition” (condition No. 4, Section 6.2) has been met. Such an observation would, however, be of limited help in assessing whether this particular measure is effective or cost-effective with respect to a broader end-goal, such as the revitalisation of the minority language.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Ethnicity, Language, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Spain, Ireland, and Wales
54431. Language Policy in Multilingual Switzerland - Overview and Recent Developments
- Author:
- François Grin
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- Switzerland is often quoted as a success story for its handling of linguistic and cultural diversity. In this presentation, I will try to assess this success: to what extent is this reputation justified? What are the conditions that have resulted in this very particular way of dealing with diversity in a multilingual state? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the “Swiss model”? Since time and space are too limited to engage in a full-fledged historical, political, sociolinguistic and economic assessment of Swiss quadrilingualism, let alone in a comparative discussion, I will eschew the usual presentation of demo- and sociolinguistic data in favour of a more interpretative approach, with the aim to provide the reader with an analytical, rather than descriptive perspective on Swiss multilingualism today. Much relevant detail will have to be omitted, meaning that this text will concentrate on what I consider to be the essential dimensions of the problem. However, additional information (including an array of relevant figures) can be found in the references listed at the end of this paper. This paper is organised as follows. In Section 2, I review the historical foundations of Swiss multilingualism; the corresponding institutional arrangements are presented in Section 3; Section 4 is devoted to a discussion of the current challenges that Switzerland is confronted with in its handling of linguistic diversity.
- Topic:
- Multiculturalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, Diversity, and Language
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Switzerland
54432. Israel's National Security and the Myth of Exceptionalism
- Author:
- Gil Merom
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- GIL MEROM challenges the Israeli belief in national security exceptionalism. He compares strategic and moral dimensions of Israeli security with those of other states and concludes that the notion of Israel's national security exceptionalism is unfounded.
- Topic:
- National Security, Politics, and Exceptionalism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
54433. The United States and South Korean Democratization
- Author:
- James Fowler
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- JAMES FOWLER draws on interviews with State Department officials and recently declassified documents to analyze the role of the United States in South Korea's democratization, concluding that U.S. public pressure on the Korean government played a critical role in determining the timing of the transition.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and United States of America
54434. Defining Moment: The Threat and Use of Force in American Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Barry M. Blechman and Tamara Coffman Wittes
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- BARRY M. BLECHMAN and TAMARA COFMAN WITTES examine the uses of military threats and military interventions in the Bush and first Clinton administrations. Based on case studies and interviews with U.S. decision makers, they conclude that domestic and international political constraints are preventing U.S. leaders from making threats decisive enough to persuade foreign leaders to comply with U.S. demands.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Military Intervention, Bill Clinton, and George H. W. Bush
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
54435. The Escalation of U.S. Immigration Control in the Post-NAFTA Era
- Author:
- Peter Andreas
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- PETER ANDREAS examines the rapid escalation of U.S. immigration control efforts along our southwest border in recent years. He argues that enhanced border policing has less to do with actual deterrence and more to do with projecting an image of order and coping with the deepening contradictions of economic integration.
- Topic:
- Immigration, NAFTA, Borders, and Economic Integration
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
54436. Coalition Formation and the Regime Divide in Central Europe
- Author:
- Anna Grzymała-Busse
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The study examines the formation of coalitions in East Central Europe after the democratic transitions of 1989. Existing explanations of coalition formations, which focus on either office-seeking and minimum wmning considerations, or on policy-seeking and spatial ideological convergence. However, they fail to account for the coalition patterns in the new democracies of East Central Europe. Instead, these parties' flrst goal is to develop clear and consistent reputations. To that end, they will form coalitions exclusively within the two camps of the regime divide: that is, amongst parties stemming from the former communist parties, and those with roots in the former opposition to the communist regimes. The two corollaries are that defectors are punished at unusually high rates, and the communist party successors seek, rather than are sought for, coalitions. This model explains 85% of the coalitions that formed in the region after 1989. The study then examines the communist successor parties, and how their efforts illustrate these dynamics .
- Topic:
- Coalition, Post-Communism, and Democratic Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe
54437. Still Dead After All These Years: Interpreting the Failure of General Equilibrium Theory
- Author:
- Frank Ackerman
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
- Abstract:
- For years after the Spanish dictator actually died, the mock television newscast on “Saturday Night Live” was periodically interrupted with a “news flash” informing viewers that “General Franco is still dead!” This served both to satirize the breathlessly urgent style of television news reporting, and to suggest that after many decades of taking an absolute ruler for granted, the world needed more than one reminder that he was no longer alive and well. Much the same is true for general equilibrium theory. In the course of its long decades of rule over the discipline of economics, general equilibrium became established as the fundamental framework for theoretical discourse. Its influence continues to spread in policy applications, with the growing use of computable general equilibrium models. It has successfully colonized much of macroeconomics, with the insistence on the derivation of rigorous microfoundations for macro models and theories. General equilibrium theory is widely cited in a normative context, often in textbooks or semitechnical discussion, as providing the rigorous theoretical version of Adam Smith’s invisible hand and demonstrating the desirable properties of a competitive economy.
- Topic:
- Economics and General Equilibrium Theory
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
54438. Disposing of Weapons-Grade Plutonium
- Author:
- Robert E. Ebel and John Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 03-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- This panel report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies considers an issue of critical importance to U.S. national security interests: Is the United States now pursuing a well-conceived and effective program of working with Russia to dispose of the vast amounts of separated plutonium that have become excess to the nuclear weapons needs of the two countries?
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
54439. The Strategy and Tactics of Hizb'allah's Current 'Lebanonization Process'
- Author:
- Dr. Magnus Ranstorp
- Publication Date:
- 06-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
- Abstract:
- This article contains a careful description and analysis of the transformation of' Hizballah from a small rag-tag militia, skillfully combining terrorist and guerrilla warfare techniques with effective social action on the local level during the chaos of Lebanon's civil war, to a formidable, legitimate political, military and social force on the Lebanese scene in the 1990's, in what has been described as its 'Lebanonization' process. This so-called 'Lebanonization' process of Hizballah has become a trademark of the movement. It is visible in the close interrelationship between its political, social, and military activity which has extended its opportunities. It shows an ability to exercise pragmatic judgement within the conditions and limitations imposed on it by Syria's agenda and within the confessional nature of Lebanon's political make-up. It also demonstrates the limits of Hizballah's manoeuvring within the framework of the wider Iranian- Syrian relationship and the limits to its ability in presenting itself as an alternative oppositional force amidst sectarian politics and Syrian hegemony. Hizballah strongly emphasizes that it is entirely Lebanese in character rather than a foreign entity directed by Iran in order to reinforce its internal legitimacy within Lebanon.
- Topic:
- Human Welfare, Politics, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Lebanon, and Syria
54440. The Role of Ideology in Terrorists' Target Selection
- Author:
- C.J.M Drake
- Publication Date:
- 06-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
- Abstract:
- Ideology plays a crucial role in terrorist's target selection; it supplies terrorists with an initial motive for action and provides a prism through which they view events and the actions of other people. Those people and institutions whom they deem guilty of having transgressed the tenets of the terrorists' ideologically-based moral framework are considered to be legitimate targets which the terrorists feel justified in attacking. As an extension of this, ideology also allows terrorists to justify their violence by displacing the responsibility onto either their victims or other actors, whom in ideological terms they hold responsible for the state of affairs which the terrorists claim led them to adopt violence. While it is not the only factor which determines whether a potential target is attacked, ideology provides an initial range of legitimate targets and a means by which terrorists seek to justify attacks, both to the outside world and to themselves.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, Peace Studies, and Terrorism
54441. Environmental Protectionism and Comparative Observations in West Europe
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Environmental concerns were seen by some as "a welcome guest in the free trade party" when they were first taken seriously in the early 1990s. Although they have since mushroomed in size and significance, the debate rages if policy measures are responding to demand. Trading behavior, for example, has not altered appreciably owing to the mounting pressures, but agreements increasingly acknowledge the need for safeguards. On the one hand is the problem of public pressure, very often of grassroots origins, upon policy-makers at all levels—multilaterally, internationally, regionally, nationally, and locally. On the other is the inquiry if policy impact is evolving differently, not only at various policy-making levels, but also in various parts of the world. How, indeed, have concerns and policy measures meshed? My broad response elaborates why environmental protectionism is chosen as a topic first, then explains the selection of cases for comparison, before turning to theoretical considerations, the empirical study itself, and finally drawing conclusions and implications, all in that order.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Maryland
54442. Westphalia in Europe as West Failure Abroad?: A Comparative Study of the Fate of the Nation-State in Non-Europe
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Conventionally viewing the state as a black box and focusing almost exclusively on its outward orientation, the Westphalia paradigm, I argue, has outlived its purpose and may even be misleading when applied to the more porous and democratic state today. Rather than measure state viability in terms of power balances abroad, three constituent elements extracted from the Westphalia literature are used to evaluate internal state viability instead: the relationship between nation and the state, the capacities of the state itself, and the state within a collectivity. Whereas the first is operationalized in terms of Buzan's four-fold typology, the second focuses on how two forms of internal divisions have been resolved-between city and country interests over policy-making, and between various classes in society through governmental income redistribution programs-while the third evaluates the propensity of the state to delegate loyalties to any supranational entity in the 1990s. Over 160 sovereign countries are pooled into 5 geographical regions for the analysis. The results strengthen the above argument, and generally portray the exceptionalism of West Europe: It is the global hub of established nation states, even though there are more state nations worldwide whose historical emergence accented internal development over external security considerations; viable states, measured in terms of established democracies, urban preponderance over policy making, and welfare redistribution; and transferring loyalties beyond the state.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Organization, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Westphalia
54443. European Integration and Franco-German Relations: Erbfeindschaft or Engrenage?
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Given the historical depth of Franco-German enmity, or erbfeindschaft, how have integrative efforts in West Europe been shaped by this rivalry? Three sets of tensions are identified in addressing that question: the theoretical tussle to explain West European integration; the explosive historical relationship between the two countries; and their cooperative, complementary relationship in European Community policy-making. For analytical purposes, two hypotheses connect these sources of tension in the multifaceted, complicated subject mater of Franco-German relations. These are that when the Cold War was in full fury, both countries found cooperation a gar superior strategy than discord; and when the Cold War ended, disagreements increased without eliminating cooperation. Both are tested through a comparative study of agricultural and monetary policies of the Community, and prefaced by a rapid historical riffle of the ups and downs in that bilateral relationship. The conclusion is drawn that the Community interlocked the two countries in such a way as to make disengagement costly in spite of increasing divergences, and that this engranage was possible because of the Cold War context.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Cold War, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
54444. Theoretical Explanations of Trade Competitiveness and a North American Application
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- How do we reconcile economic competitiveness with trade regionalism? This exploratory investigation first takes stock of how competitiveness has been defined by both economists and political scientists, then extracts an inclusive model from the different literatures, and finally broadly assesses business transactions and trends across North America using that model. Beginning with the Ricardo-Viner and Hecksher-Olin explanations, various types of competitiveness articulated by Michael Porter, Mancur Olson, and David Mares are subsequently brought in. preliminary findings presented as hypotheses for future testing, suggest that: that evaporation of hegemony has resulted in multiple claims to competitiveness across North America, policy convergences are more widespread and common than ever before, regional-level cooperation provides an efficient means for all three countries to offset global competitiveness, and domestic interests, though still a potential veto force, are slowly embracing, rather than opposing, supranational efforts.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
54445. Agriculture and Supranationalism: A Comparative Study on North American and West European Policy-Making Experiences
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- The proliferation of regional trading blocs in the 1990s raises a fundamental question: To what extent is policy-making shifting from the national government to a regional entity? The conversion of GATT into the World Trade Organization, also in the 1990s, further complicates the search for an answer since new or revitalized multilateral rules also exert influences upon policy outcomes. I apply that question to a study of farm policy, with the European Union and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as my cases. The next two sections profile the importance of agriculture and my rationale in selecting the two cases before pointing gout the organization of the remainder of the study.
- Topic:
- Agriculture and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
54446. The Role of the Private Sector in the Evolution of US Technology Policy
- Author:
- Judith Mariscal and John B. Horrigan
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Technology policy in the United States has undergone a dramatic transformation in the past ten to twelve years, as the government has increasingly played an active role in the high-tech sector and as the sector itself has faced growing competition from foreign competitors. Truths (or apparent truths) which once were unquestioned—that the U.S. government should only intervene in technology for national security reasons, that entrepreneurial high-tech firms operate best as "lone rangers" in the marketplace—have been closely scrutinized. The result of such scrutiny is that government and industry have changed their perceptions about their roles in a world in which the economic and competitive environment shifts rapidly. Another outcome is that technology policy has taken on increasing importance in U.S. policy circles. We see in the Clinton Administration plans to promote the information superhighway, proposals to overhaul the way in which the telecommunications industry is regulated, support for government-industry research consortia, closer linkage of trade and technology policy, and in general a much closer industry government relationship with the high-tech sector.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
54447. Dispute Settlement, Domestic Institutions and Political Integration in North America: A Comparative Study
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Created to cultivate interaction between domestic and supranational economic arrangements/institutions, the North American Free Trade Agreement is in increasing need of arrangements/institutions which bridge political boundaries as well. The document's binational panels, for instance, have been authorized to review domestic duty determinations, but have also dragged domestic political practices, customs, arrangements, and institutions into the supranational arena, in turn exposing potentially deep differences across national boundaries. A comparative study of both basic and complex domestic political structures, affected directly or indirectly by NAFTA's dispute settlement procedures, reveals: that as reciprocal relationships increase, arrangements and/or institutions at both levels, domestic and supranational, become more vulnerable; and that different experiences across national boundaries may produce uneven degrees of integration. These findings lead to an explorative assessment of political integration stemming form the economic integration currently underway.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- North America
54448. European Integration and Franco-German Relations: Erbreindschaft or Engrenage?
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Given the historical depth of Franco-German enmity, or erbfeindschaft, how have integrative efforts in West Europe been shaped by this rivalry? Three sets of tensions are identified in addressing that question: the theoretical tussle to explain West European integration; the explosive historical relationship between the two countries; and their cooperative, complementary relationship in European Community policy-making. For analytical purposes, two hypotheses connect these sources of tension in the multifaceted, complicated subject matter of Franco-German relations. These are that when the Cold War was in full fury, both countries found cooperation a far superior strategy than discord; and when the Cold War ended, disagreements increased without eliminating cooperation . Both are tested through a comparative study of agricultural and monetary policies of the Community, and prefaced by a rapid historical riffle of the ups and downs in that bilateral relationship. The conclusion is drawn that the Community interlocked the two countries in such a way as to make disengagement costly in spite of increasing divergences, and that this engrenage was possible because of the Cold War context.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Cold War, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, and Maryland
54449. Environmental Protectionism and Comparative Observations in West Europe and North America
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Environmental concerns were seen by some as "a welcome guest in the free trade party" when they were first taken seriously in the early 1990s. Although they have since mushroomed in size and significance, the debate rages if policy measures are responding to demand. Trading behavior, for example, has not altered appreciably owing to the mounting pressures, but agreements increasingly acknowledge the need for safeguards. On the one hand is the problem of public pressure, very often of grassroots origins, upon policy-makers at all levels—multilaterally, internationally, regionally, nationally, and locally. On the other is the inquiry if policy impact is evolving differently, not only at various policy-making levels, but also in various parts of the world. How, indeed, have concerns and policy measures meshed? My broad response elaborates why environmental protectionism is chosen as a topic first, then explains the selection of cases for comparison, before turning to theoretical considerations, the empirical study itself, and finally drawing conclusions and implications, all in that order.
- Topic:
- Development and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
54450. Banking Sector Development in Kazakhstan
- Author:
- Eugene Spiro
- Publication Date:
- 12-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The EastWest Institute convened in partnership with the Kazakhstan Institute of Management, Economics and Strategic Research (KIMEP) International Conference on Banking Policies on December 9-12, 1998. The purpose of the conference was to present Kazakh officials, academicians and bankers with practices (best and otherwise) in CEE and the West on bank privatization and reduction of the state's role in banking; costs and benefits of foreign strategic investment in the banking sector; and issues related to bank supervision, regulation and deposit insurance.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Kazakhstan and Asia