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54151. Minorities in the Context of Forced Displacement in the South East European Region

Author:
Udo Janz
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The UN Special Rapporteur for the Sub-Commission on the Prevention of Discrimination and Protection of Minorities, F. Capotori, offered a formulation of a definition of minorities in 1979: a minority must be a "non-dominant" group; its members must possess "ethnic, religious or linguistic characteristics differing from those of the rest of the population", and they must also show, if only implicitly, a sense of solidarity, directed towards preserving their culture, traditions, religion or language".
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Population
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and United Nations

54152. Multiethnic State, Ethnically Homogenous State and the Future of the Nation-State in the Balkans

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
Approaching and testing the capacity and effectiveness of the nation-states in the Balkans is a long-term research necessity for many reasons: First, despite the tendency of making the state boundaries less and less significant in the era of new information technology, global economy and new communications capabilities the nation-state will remain the key organisational unit of the international system and the features of national sovereignty will continue to dominate and influence the management toolbox of international relations and domestic politics. Hence, any form and nuance of the nation-state in the Balkans will have a decisive meaning for dealing with the political and security agenda of the region.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

54153. Innovation and Social Capital in Silicon Valley

Author:
Martin Kenney and Donald Patton
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
The high cost regions of Europe, North America, and Japan recognize that the key to their economic vitality is innovation. Increasingly, many also accept that the primary units of competition based on high quality, innovative products are not nations, but firms within regions, some of which occasionally bridge national boundaries. This has resulted in a significant increase in interest in the nature and functioning of such regional economies, variously known as clusters or industrial districts.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and North America

54154. Sponsors, Communities and Standards: Winning in the Local Area Networking Business

Author:
Martin Kenney and Urs von Burg
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Economics has treated technological standards creation as an outcome of network externalities and decisions on the demand side. They pay little attention to the supply side, where firms make strategi choices on which standard to support. These choices can ignite a contest between adherents to the different proposed standards. This case study examines the contest btween the Ethernet and Token Ring standards for local area networking. We find that the critical difference in explaining the success of Ethernet vibrancy was the nature and strategy of the standard's sponsors in assisting the growth of a community of firms supporting the standard.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54155. Went for Cost, Stayed for Quality?: Moving the Back Office to India

Author:
Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Will the next great wave of globalization come in services? Increasingly, components of back-office services, such as payroll and order fulfillment, and some front-office services, such as customer care are being relocated from the U.S. and other developed countries to English-speaking, developing nations especially India, but also other nations such as the Phillipines. Though moving service activities offshore is not entirely new, the pace has of late quickened. The acceleration of this offshoring is intertwined, though not synonymous, with another phenomenon, namely an increasing willingness by firms to outsource what formerly were considered core activities. The importance of the fact that a substantial number of service activities might move offshore is that it was service jobs that were thought to be the future growth area for developed country economies as manufacturing relocated to lower labor cost regions offshore. This is especially important, because these services commonly known as "business processes" (BPs) are among the fastest growing job categories in the US (Goodman and Steadman 2002). Should these jobs begin to move offshore, a new tendency may be underway in the global economy that will be as important or more important than the relocation of manufacturing offshore, and might necessitate a rethinking of government policies across a wide spectrum.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, and India

54156. The Spatial Distribution of Entrepeneurial Support Networks: Evidence from Semiconductor Initial Public Offerings from 1996-2000

Author:
Martin Kenney and Donald Patton
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Theory and recent research demonstrates that entrepreneurship is a spatially and socially embedded activity. In certain regions, dense support networks of institutions dedicated to assisting entrepreneurial start-ups have been established and a wide variety of authors have given credit to these networks for supporting regional entrepreneurship (Kenney and von Burg 1999; Saxenian 1994; Bahrami and Evans 2000). As Marshall (1890) recognized many, but not all, industries exhibit a strong clustering effect (see also, e.g., Storper and Walker 1988; Porter 1990; 1998). Research on these networks has been hampered by a lack of empirical data that contains spatial variables and identifies the relationship between various actors (i.e., venture capitalists, law firms and investment bankers) and the start-up firm. Thus research has been qualitative and anecdotal or when quantitative limited to certain industries usually biotechnology.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
United States

54157. Enron's Missed Opportunity: Enron's Refusal to Build a Collaborative Market Turned Bandwidth Trading Into a Disaster

Author:
Andrew Schwartz
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Why did Enron fail? The easy answer is that Enron was a fraud, a Ponzi scheme designed to enrich scoundrels. But beneath the off-balance sheet transactions and partnerships that have drawn such intense scrutiny, Enron's efforts to reduce complex products into tradable commodities represented one of the most promising ideas of the past twenty-five years. Enron's failure was due in part to a business strategy that regarded competitors as ruthless and uncompromising. That mentality led the company to reject the very real possibility that rivals could, working together, create the new markets that in turn would open up profit opportunities for all. Enron's brilliant vision of the New Economy didn't go far enough; it required a New Economy business model that emphasized cooperation among competitors.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

54158. Secrets or Shields to Share?: New Dilemmas for Dual Use Technology Development and the Quest for Military and Commercial Advantage in the Digital Age

Author:
Jay Stowsky
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
For a brief period in the early 1990's the U.S. Department of Defense pursued an R policy that was explicitly “dual-use,” funding projects aimed at simultaneously developing both military and civilian applications of the same underlying technologies. The policy emerged from more than a decade of bipartisan agitation in Congress and segments of the military-industrial establishment, spurred by a shared belief that more advanced technologies now “spun on” from civilian to military applications than “spun off” in the other direction (US Department of Defense, Office of the Undersecretary for Acquisition, 1987; Gansler, 1989; Alic et al., 1992; Stowsky 1992, 1999). With the end of the Cold War and mushrooming budget deficits constraining defense spending, Pentagon planners saw dual-use development as a strategy for improving efficiency and lowering costs as well as enhancing quality by enabling the construction of sophisticated weapons systems off a more integrated civil-military technology base (US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, 1995; US Department of Defense, 1995).
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54159. Executive Leadership and the Role of “Veto Players” in the United States and Germany

Author:
Ludger Helms
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
In recent comparative works on the constitutional structures of contemporary liberal democracies, the United States and Germany have been grouped together as examples of democratic systems with an exceptionally high degree of “institutional pluralism”. In other typologies both countries have even been classified as “semisovereign democracies”. Whereas such classifications are of some use, especially in the field of public policy research, they fail to pay reasonable attention to the fundamental difference between parliamentary and presidential government that dominated the older literature on comparative political systems. As the comparative assessments offered in this paper suggest, the difference between parliamentary government and presidential government does not only constitute very different conditions of executive leadership in the core executive territory and at the level of executive-legislative relations, but has also a strong impact on the role and performance of the various “veto players” that characterize the political systems of the United States and Germany, and which are at the center of this paper.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Germany

54160. European Corporate Governance Reform and the German Party Paradox

Author:
Martin Höpner
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper addresses the current discussion on links between party politics and production regimes. Why do German Social Democrats opt for more corporate governance liberalization than the CDU although, in terms of the distributional outcomes of such reforms, one would expect the situation to be reversed? I divide my analysis into three stages. First, I use the European Parliament's crucial vote on the European takeover directive in July 2001 as a test case to show that the left-right dimension does indeed matter in corporate governance reform, beside cross-class and cross-party nation-based interests. In a second step, by analyzing the party positions in the main German corporate governance reforms in the 1990s, I show that the SPD and the CDU behave “paradoxically” in the sense that the SPD favored more corporate governance liberalization than the CDU, which protected the institutions of “Rhenish,” “organized” capitalism. This constellation occurred in the discussions on company disclosure, management accountability, the power of banks, network dissolution, and takeover regulation. Third, I offer two explanations for this paradoxical party behavior. The first explanation concerns the historical conversion of ideas. I show that trade unions and Social Democrats favored a high degree of capital organization in the Weimar Republic, but this ideological position was driven in new directions at two watersheds: one in the late 1940s, the other in the late 1950s. My second explanation lies in the importance of conflicts over managerial control, in which both employees and minority shareholders oppose managers, and in which increased shareholder power strengthens the position of works councils.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

54161. Elements for a Structural Constructivist Theory of Politics and of European Integration

Author:
Niilo Kauppi
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Pierre Bourdieu's structural constructivist theory of politics offers powerful instruments for a critical analysis of political power. In this paper, I explore structural constructivism as a theory of politics and of European integration. By structural constructivism I refer to a mostly French research tradition that develops some of Bourdieu's theoretical tools. In European studies, social constructivism has provided an alternative to traditional approaches such as intergovernmentalism and neofunctionalism. Structural constructivism remedies some of the weaknesses of most versions of social constructivism, such as their diffuse conception of power and ideational notion of culture. This paper develops a structural constructivist approach that examines the European Union as a multileveled and polycentric emerging political field.
Topic:
International Organization and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

54162. Hard and soft economic policy coordination under EMU: problems, paradoxes and prospects

Author:
Iain Begg
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Although the launch of the euro went better than many expected, sluggish growth, persistent unemployment and growing disenchantment with key elements of the economic governance system have led to demands for change, especially in policy coordination. This paper examines the criticisms of economic policy in the EU and the mechanisms through which it is coordinated, and considers how the EMU policy system might be reformed. It points to problems and paradoxes in the way economic governance operates, notably those surrounding its ability to deliver a coherent policy mix that brings together monetary fiscal and supply-side policies. The paper concludes with a discussion of whether gouvernment économique might offer a way forward.
Topic:
Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

54163. Does the process really matter? Some reflections on the "legitimating effect" of the European Convention

Author:
Paul Magnette
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The European Convention, set up by the Heads of state and governments during the Laeken Summit of December 2001, was presented by its initiators as a means of strengthening the legitimacy of the EU. Is this a rhetorical argument of politicians, which could be explained by the intense electoral cycle of 2002- 2004? Or is there something, in the process of the Convention, that could change the nature of the EU constitution?
Topic:
International Organization and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

54164. Portugese Ministers, 1851-1999: Social Background and Paths to Power

Author:
Pedro Tavares de Almeida and António Costa Pinto
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of regime changes in the composition and patterns of recruitment of the Portuguese ministerial elite throughout the last 150 years. The 'out-of-type', violent nature of most regime transformations accounts for the purges in and the extensive replacements of the political personnel, namely of the uppermost officeholders. In the case of Cabinet members, such discontinuities did not imply, however, radical changes in their social profile. Although there were some significant variations, a series of salient characteristics have persisted over time. The typical Portuguese minister is a male in his midforties, of middle-class origin and predominantly urban-born, highly educated and with a state servant background. The two main occupational contingents have been university professors - except for the First Republic (1910-26) - and the military, the latter having only recently been eclipsed with the consolidation of contemporary democracy. As regards career pathways, the most striking feature is the secular trend for the declining role of parliamentary experience, which the democratic regime did not clearly reverse. In this period, a technocratic background rather than political experience has been indeed the privileged credential for a significant proportion of ministers.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

54165. Ministerial Elites in Greece, 1843-2001: A Synthesis of Old Sources and New Data

Author:
Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos and Dimitris Bourikos
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The study of Greek political elites used to be concentrated on parliamentary deputies. Ministerial elites were rarely studied. In this paper, we take a long-term view of the Greek ministerial elites, studying their socio-political profile from the mid-nineteenth century to the present. We find that this profile does not change so much with regime change, but instead follows political developments at certain time points within specific regime periods. At these points, new political leaders were ushered into power. Examples were Eleftherios Venizelos in 1911 and Andreas Papandreou in 1981. Changes in personnel were not accompanied by changes in geographical origin or professional outlook, which took much longer to effect. In the nineteenth century mainly landowners and state officials dominated cabinets. After the beginning of the twentieth century, however, liberal professions, particularly lawyers, were overrepresented among ministers. This pattern continued throughout the twentieth century. Both the predominance of lawyers and the changes in the profile of ministers over time are attributed to the type of state built in modern Greece, a clientelist, overcentralized and legalistic state which only recently has started its transformation, requiring a different, more modern type of politician.
Topic:
Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

54166. Labor Market Institutions and Unemployment: A Critical Assessment of the Cross-Country Evidence

Author:
Dean Baker, John Schmitt, and Andrew Glyn
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
In the last twenty five years, there has been a sharp divergence in trends in the unemployment rate among OECD countries, with some seeing much larger increases in unemployment than others. This divergence is usually explained by institutions that lead to labor market inflexibility – generous unemployment benefits, employment protections, and strong unions – in countries with high unemployment rates. This paper examines the evidence for this view. It shows that there is no simple bivariate relationship between standard measures of labor market institutions and unemployment rates across countries. It then critically examines several of the most often cited studies that support the labor market inflexibility view. It finds that these studies present relatively weak and to some extent contradictory support for the labor market inflexibility view. Finally, the paper presents the results of a set of tests designed to replicate some of the earlier multivariate analyses with more current data. These tests consistently fail to find robust evidence to support the labor market inflexibility view.
Topic:
Economics and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

54167. The Carter Center News, Spring 2003

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Leaders from the Western Hemisphere called on their governments at the conclusion of a Carter Center conference to implement partial public funding of campaigns and fully disclose election donations and expenditures to help restore confidence in government.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and South America

54168. The Carter Center News, January-June 2003

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
People everywhere share the same dream of a caring international community that prevents war and oppression,” said President Carter after the Nobel Peace Prize was announced last October.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Development, and Peace Studies

54169. The Kashmiri Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
In late March 2003, terrorists thought to be members of Pakistan-supported Islamic groups killed 24 Hindu villagers in Kashmir. This incident evoked memories of the suicide attack by Muslim terrorists on the Indian Parliament in New Delhi in December 2001. Events like these raise the potential threat of war between India and Pakistan. South Asia is thought by many observers to be the most dangerous place in the world, with both antagonists armed with nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

54170. Evolution of U.S. Policy on Small Arms

Author:
Victoria Garcia
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The following is a compilation of speeches, official documents, and policy notes by U.S. government officials on small arms from 1995-2003. This summary is intended to be a survey of the evolution of U.S. governmental policy, in order to give a broad history, as well as insight, into the U.S. position on the small arms issue in future international fora.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States

54171. Air Force Space Command Strategic Master Plan FY06 and Beyond

Author:
Lance W. Lord
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) develops the Strategic Master Plan (SMP) as the capstone document of the command's Integrated Planning Process (IPP). The SMP presents the AFSPC Vision, outlines a strategy to implement that Vision, and defines a 25-year plan. That plan is integrated across the AFSPC mission areas to provide the space capabilities required to achieve the Vision.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54172. The Truth About Missile Defense: Will Science Make A Difference?

Author:
Philip E. Coyle
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
In political Washington, one can get the impression that everything is “spin”, that there are no real truths. In the news media different views are aired and debated, but one view is said to be no better than another, and certainly political views cannot be proven the way we learn mathematical proofs in school.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54173. Boost-Phase Intercept: Billions Spent, Little Return

Author:
Victoria Samson
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The American Physical Society's July 16 study on boost-phase intercept missile defense programs provides an exhaustive and objective analysis of the science and technology behind the programs. However, it lacks one key element: the cost of boost-phase intercept.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and America

54174. Data Sheet on Coalition Fatalities in Operation Iraqi Freedom and Subsequent Occupation

Author:
Eli Jellenc
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
For the most “official” figures: As of July 21, the Department of Defense's “Defend America” site acknowledges the following fatalities. (Note: the DoD's figures lag behind most major news sources by a few days but details tend to be more accurate overall)
Topic:
Demographics, Human Welfare, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

54175. Stand-off with North Korea: War Scenarios and Consequences

Author:
Colin Robinson and Stephen H. Baker
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
North Korea's military threat and somewhat peculiar approaches to international relations have been a central difficulty in dealing with the isolated regime during the past decade. In the early 1990s, North Korea, formally known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), was expected by many observers to collapse, just as communist regimes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union did.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Asia, North Korea, and Soviet Union

54176. A First-hand Report: Cuban Biotechnology

Author:
Glenn Baker
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
John Bolton, U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, triggered a furor when on May 6, 2002, he stated, “The United States believes that Cuba has at least a limited offensive biological warfare research and development effort.” Two days later, I was meeting with a representative from the Cuban Interests Section on an unrelated matter when I posed the question, “How would Cuba respond if CDI asked to bring a group of experts down to learn more about these charges?” I had no expectations of hearing any more about it. But less than two weeks later, I was told that not only was there an interest, but that we were invited to bring anyone, come anytime, and visit anywhere we wanted. Clearly, Bolton's comments had struck a nerve in Havana.
Topic:
Security, Human Welfare, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Caribbean, and Havana

54177. A Swift, Elusive Sword: What if Sun Tzu and John Boyd Did a National Defense Review?

Author:
Chester W. Richards
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
What kind of question is: “What if Sun Tzu and John Boyd did a National Defense Review?” Sun Tzu, if he existed at all, has been gone some 2,500 years. The late Col. John R. Boyd, U.S.A.F., while intimately involved in fighter aircraft design during his active duty years, wrote practically nothing on hardware or force structure after he retired, when he created the strategic concepts for which he is best known today.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

54178. Honing the Sword: Strategy and Forces After 9/11

Author:
Marcus Corbin
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
In 2001, prior to the attacks of Sept. 11, the Center for Defense Information published a national security review and force structure entitled Reforging the Sword: Forces for a 21st Century Security Strategy. Happily for the authors of Reforging, the Sept. 11 attacks did not make it obsolete. To the contrary, its emphases on working more closely with allies, on lighter, more agile forces, on intelligence, and on the importance of nonmilitary components of a conflict were important elements of the conduct of the counterattack by the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush. The events of Sept. 11 and Operation Enduring Freedom have reinforced the need raised in Reforging to prepare for new threats, and have enhanced the prospects for some of its proposed new directions, particularly in the area of allied collaboration if a multilateralist administration took office. This report updates Reforging the Sword in light of events on and since Sept. 11, 2001. The suggestions here use as a foundation the predilections spelled out in Reforging for working with allies, for taking the nonmilitary elements of modern war into consideration, and for trying to keep humans in the war-fighting loop.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

54179. The Defense Monitor, Vital Statistics: The U.S. Military

Author:
Marcus Corbin and Olga Levitsky
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
This issue of the defense monitor provides basic information about U.S. and foreign military forces, including facts on size, equipment, and cost. It is intended as a snapshot reference guide — more data is available on the CDI website at www.cdi.org/ news/vital-statistics/ and on the government Internet sources listed at the back of the issue.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States

54180. The Defense Monitor: Little Room in Politics for the Facts of the Matter

Author:
Philip E. Coyle, Rachel Stohl, Winslow Wheeler, Theresa Hitchens, Victoria Garcia, Colin Robinson, Krista Nelson, and Jeffrey Lewis
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Few things are more routinely abused than facts when people in government — any party, any branch — set out to make a decision. I've been reminded of this truth watching the current administration parry revelations that it manipulated “facts” about weapons of mass destruction as a pretext for the war against Iraq that Congress authorized a year ago this past week. But I'd learned it the hard way much earlier. During a 31-year career as an evaluator for the General Accounting Office and a staffer for four different U.S. senators from both parties, I spent a lot of time trying to use facts to influence decisions made by the U.S. government. The facts took a beating all too often.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

54181. The Defense Monitor: Liberation and Occupation in Iraq

Author:
Michael Donovan
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
S of this writing, 39 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq in the 10 weeks following the declared conclusion of the campaign to over throw Saddam Hussein on May 1. This fact stands in sharp contrast to the optimistic pre-war rhetoric of the George W. Bush administration regarding the “liberation” of Iraq and testifies to the arduous road that lies ahead.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and War
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

54182. The Defense Monitor: Nuclear Recollections

Author:
Bruce Blair
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Rear Adm. Eugene (Gene) Carroll, our beloved colleague who passed away this February, often shared with me his recollections of the role he once played in planning for nuclear war. As quoted in his obituary in the Washington Post, Gene once wrote: “During the horrible confrontation with the Soviet Union we called the Cold War, I frequently stood nuclear alert watch on aircraft carriers. For a period of time my assigned target was an industrial complex and transportation hub in a major city in Eastern Europe … My bomb alone would have resulted in the death of an estimated 600,000 human beings. Multiply that by 40 or 50 times and you can understand what two carriers alone would have done.”
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Soviet Union

54183. The Defense Monitor: The World At War

Author:
Col. Daniel Smith
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
At the start of 2003, the United States remains focused on fighting global terrorism in general even as it zeroes in on Iraq as the nexus of evil. But a number of factors in play today make international support for such a venture less effusive than in 1990-91, when the last anti-Saddam “coalition of the willing” formed. Many economies, including those of three of the four big financial supporters of the 1990-91 war — Japan, Germany, and Saudi Arabia — are weaker. Any war would be relatively more expensive. Suspicions about U.S. motives, fueled by the Bush administration's initial unilateralism, remain alive despite Washington's patient work in obtaining a UN Security Council resolution on new inspections. Germany has declared it will provide no forces; use of Saudi Arabian airbases to launch combat missions against Iraq remains unclear; and troop contributions, as well as moral support, from other Arab states such as Egypt and Syria may not materialize.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Iraq, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt

54184. Coercion and Risk-Taking in Nuclear South Asia

Author:
Verghese Koithara
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The partition-bred conflict between India and Pakistan that began in 1947 went into remission in 1971 following India's emphatic victory in war that year. It reemerged in 1989 when serious disaffection in the Kashmir Valley gave Pakistan an opening to promote militancy. This created a dangerous situation because it was about the same time that both Pakistan and India also acquired nuclear weapons. There was a major confrontation between the two countries during March-May 1990. Since then there has been continuous tension with each attempting to coerce the other. In May 1998 both countries carried out several nuclear tests each. A year later, during May-July 1999, the two fought a two-month "limited war" in the Kargil region of Kashmir that caused over 1,200 fatalities. Kargil was a clear effort on Pakistan's part to test the deterrence value of its nuclear weapons. In December 2001 India resorted to an unprecedented military mobilization (Operation Parakram), holding out the clear threat of attacking Pakistan unless the latter stopped its sub-conventional operations.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and India

54185. Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons against Buried Biological Agents

Author:
Michael May and Zachary Haldeman
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
This report describes the results of some calculations on the effectiveness of penetrating nuclear weapons of yield 1 and 10 kilotons against targets containing biological agents. The effectiveness depends in detail on the construction of the bunkers, on how the bio-agents are stored, on the location of the explosions with respect to the bunkers, the bio-agent containers and the surface of the ground, and on the yield of the explosion and the geology of the explosion site. Completeness of sterilization of the bio-agents is crucial in determining effectiveness. For most likely cases, however, complete sterilization cannot be guaranteed. Better calculations and experiments on specific target types would improve the accuracy of such predictions for those targets, but significant uncertainties regarding actual geology, actual target layouts, and knowledge of the position of the explosion with respect to the target would remain. Aboveground effects of the nuclear explosions, all of which would vent to the surface, are estimated. They include intense local radioactivity and significant fallout, air blast, and seismic effects to kilometers distances. It is likely, however, that casualties from those effects would be less than the casualties that would result from the dispersal of large quantities of bio-agents.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

54186. The Bush Administration's Nuclear Strategy and Its Implications for China's Security

Author:
Tian Jingmei
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
Since the Bush administration took office, and especially since excerpts of the Nuclear Posture Review were released, there have appeared in America some heated arguments about the Bush administration's changes to the Clinton administration's nuclear strategy, what consequences these changes would produce, and what influences they would exert on international and regional security. Different people have different views. The purpose of this working paper is to find solutions to these key issues. The effects of the Bush administration's nuclear strategy on China's security are also discussed.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, America, and Asia

54187. Container Security Report

Author:
Michael May, Tonya L. Putnam, and Dean Wilkening
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
During the week of August 18–23, 2002, the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) of the Institute for International Studies (IIS) at Stanford University hosted four summer studies sponsored by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. One of these studies, the Container Security study, examined how to apply existing technology and resources most effectively to prevent the transport of illicit nuclear materials for use in terrorist activities by means of international commercial shipping.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54188. International Law for an Uncertain Environment

Author:
Barbara Koremenos
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
For the past twenty years, the theoretical literature on international cooperation has focused on overarching questions about whether cooperation is possible and how important it is. The seminal contributions of the 1980s increased our theoretical understanding of the possibility of cooperation. Yet we know empirically that cooperation is pervasive. Hundreds of multilateral agreements are signed each year. If we count bilateral agreements as well, the number jumps to thousands. This is not to say that cooperation is easy. In fact, given the challenges of successful cooperation, it is time for the theoretical literature to focus not on whether cooperation can occur at all, but on more focused questions regarding how the actual institutions of cooperation work and through what means they have their impact on state behavior.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Government, International Cooperation, and International Law

54189. The Preventive Use of Force: A Cosmopolitan Institutional Proposal

Author:
Allen Buchanan and Robert Keohane
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Since 9/11/2001 fears of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction have fueled a vigorous world-wide debate about the use of preventive force. “Preventive force” may be defined as the initiation of military action in anticipation of harmful actions that are neither presently occurring nor imminent.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Government, and Politics

54190. Democratic Politics in Latin America: New Debates and Research Frontiers

Author:
Gerardo Munck
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
This assessment of research on contemporary democratic politics in Latin America is organized around the distinction between institutional and alternative approaches. Initially it considers institutionalism on its own terms and, through an assessment of the debate about the institutional causes of gridlock, draws attention to key strengths of this literature. Thereafter, some of the limitations of an institutional approach are addressed and the possibility of combining insights developed from institutional and alternative theoretical perspectives is emphasized. The suggested terms of integration, however, are not symmetric. With regard to causal theorizing, the need for institutionalists to borrow ideas, especially from the broader literature on political regimes, is underlined. With regard to theorizing outcomes, in contrast, the need for students of the quality of democracy to incorporate contributions made by institutionalists is highlighted. Throughout, various pointed suggestions to advance research are offered.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

54191. Picking Up the Pieces: Comparing the Social Impact of Finacial Crisis in Mexico and Argentina

Author:
Manuel Pastor and Carol Wise
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
After a committed process of macroeconomic stabilization that began during the mid-1980s in most of Latin America, many observers began to speak of the need for a “second generation” of reforms that could more firmly establish the bases for economic growth and correct for longstanding distributional inequities. By the mid-1990s serious reformers like Argentina and Mexico seemed to be on the cusp of tackling this distributional backlog by launching so-called second phase market reforms meant to correct for earlier shortcomings in the social realm (Naím 1995; Pastor and Wise 1999). However, in both cases, financial crises erupted: Mexico's crash of December 1994, which saw a forty percent devaluation of the peso and a massive outflow of portfolio capital; and, more recently, Argentina's 2002 meltdown, which while simmering since the Brazilian devaluation of 1999, finally caused the country's commitment to a fixed exchange rate to be abandoned.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

54192. Why Delegate the Allocation of Foreign Aid to Multilateral Organizations? Principal-Agent Problems and Multilateralism

Author:
Helen Milner
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Why do countries delegate the distribution of foreign aid to international institutions? Specifically, why have the advanced industrial countries chosen to distribute part of their foreign aid through multilateral organizations, such as the European Union (EU), World Bank, IMF, UN, and regional development banks (RDBs)? The delegation of aid provision to an international institution is puzzling. Why would governments relinquish control over their aid if they are a useful instrument of statecraft? Governments delegate aid delivery to international institutions when their publics lack information about the consequences of aid and fear that their governments will deviate from their wishes concerning its use. By using the international organization to send aid, the government issues a credible signal to voters about the use of foreign aid. This signal leaves all actors better off by helping to solve a principal-agent problem in domestic politics. When publics are skeptical about the benefits of aid, governments are more likely to turn aid over to multilateral organizations in order to reassure taxpayers that their money is being well spent. Using data on about 20 donor countries of the OECD from 1960-2000, I investigate the sources of multilateral giving, showing that public opinion has the expected negative relationship to multilateral aid-giving.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and United Nations

54193. The Bombardier-Embraer Dispute and its Implications for Western Hemisphere Integration

Author:
Jonathan P. Doh
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Government subsidies are a pervasive problem for international trade and economic development. Subsidies distort investment decisions, generally squander scarce public resources, skew public expenditures toward unproductive uses, unfairly discriminate against efficient industries and firms, and prompt wasteful overconsumption of some products over others. Despite efforts to limit subsidies through trade and investment policy disciplines, subsidization remains a constant on the global trade policy and international business landscape.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

54194. Managing Canada-U.S. Relations in the Post 9-11 Era: Do We Need a Big Idea?

Author:
Donald Barry
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The remarkable growth of Canadian-U.S. economic integration, combined with the security implications of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, have brought the management of Canada-U.S. relations into sharp focus. The most important challenge facing Canadian decisionmakers is how to respond to the new security environment while ensuring the uninterrupted flow of people and commerce across the 3, 989-mile common border. The dimensions of the challenge became apparent in the immediate aftermath of September 11 when the United States temporarily closed its borders in reaction to the attacks. Quick action by the Canadian government led to the “Smart Border Declaration” in December 2001, to secure the border while facilitating the flow of low-risk people and goods. Since then, Ottawa and Washington have been working to flesh out the principles contained in the declaration and to bolster other aspects of their cooperation.
Topic:
NATO and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Canada, and North America

54195. Canada and the Future of Continental Defense - A View from Washington

Author:
Dwight N. Mason
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The United States and Canada have had a long and successful defense relationship. This relationship is based on a shared understanding that North America is a single military theater and that each country has an obligation to the other for its defense. Over time this basic understanding had led to a steady expansion and deepening of our defense relationship and the creation of a number of institutional arrangements to manage it. One product of these arrangements has been a partnership style of continental defense management that has proved to be successful despite the disparities in resources and responsibilities and, sometimes, the policy differences between our two countries. This structure is now beginning to be threatened by the decline in the resources and capabilities of the Canadian Forces. Nevertheless, there are things that both countries separately and together could do to improve the situation.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Canada, and North America

54196. Radical Groups in Mexico Today

Author:
Gustavo Hirales Morán
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Since January 1, 1994, the day when the armed uprising of the Zapatista Army for National Liberation (EZLN) was announced, it has been evident that Mexico is facing a second generation of radical organizations. The first generation, dating back to the 1970s, consisted of armed groups made up mainly of students, rural classroom teachers, and campesinos (i.e., subsistence farmers and agricultural workers along with their families). This generation's choice to pursue armed struggle revealed a trio of influences: Cuba's experience, socialist ideology, and the outrage and indignation produced by the repression and crackdown on nonviolent avenues of political opposition unleashed under the governments of Gustavo Díaz Ordaz (1964–1970) and Luis Echeverría Álvarez (1970–1976).
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

54197. Canada as a Minor Ally: Operational Considerations for Relations with the United States

Author:
Christopher Sands
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Good morning. I want to thank the organizers of this year's Canadian Crude Oil Conference for bringing me out here to join you today. Albertan hospitality is hard to beat, and for a kid from Detroit, I am happy to say that I had the chance to live here as a temporary Albertan one summer. My Dad is a professor of geography and urban planning, and one summer our family relocate d to Alberta while he researched a book on the patterns of suburban development in four cities: Edmonton, Calgary, Phoenix, and Houston. It was a great adventure for me, especially camping and hiking in Banff and Jasper. You will get a sense of how long ago this was when I tell you that my souvenir from that summer was a t-shirt with Chewbacca, C3PO, and R2-D2 posing with a bear.
Topic:
Energy Policy and Environment
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, and North America

54198. North American Economic Integration Policy Options

Author:
Earl H. Fry
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
At the end of 2003, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will have been in effect for a decade, and although the accord will not be fully implemented for another five years, almost all of its important provisions are already in place. The model for NAFTA was the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), which was put in motion in 1989 and was to be fully implemented within 10 years but was superseded by NAFTA after only five years in operation. NAFTA itself has created the world's largest free-trade area, encompassing the United States, Mexico, and Canada; 21.3 million square miles of territory; 422 million people; almost $12 trillion in yearly production; and $615 billion in annual three-way merchandise trade. North American trade, investment, government-to-government, and people-to-people exchanges have increased dramatically over the past decade and decisionmakers in Washington, D.C., Mexico City, and Ottawa will soon have to consider whether continental economic integration should move to the next level in the form of a customs and monetary union or even a common market possessing many of the attributes of the European Union (EU).
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Central America, North America, Mexico, and Ottawa

54199. Remarks by Under Secretary Asa Hutchinson on the Launch of the US-VISIT Program

Author:
Asa Hutchinson
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
At the Department of Homeland Security-my responsibility centers on the borders of the United States. What we do at our borders impacts our security, our economy and our relationship with the international community.
Topic:
Security and Migration
Political Geography:
United States and North America

54200. Authentication Report

Author:
James A. Lewis
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
How does a machine know you are who you say you are and what you are allowed to do? A car 'knows' you are authorized to drive it when you insert a metal key. An automatic teller knows who you are and how much is in your account when you insert a magnetic card and enter a Personal Identification Number. The machine isn't actually confirming your identity; it is accepting a token issued to you by someone else, who may have taken steps to confirm at the time of issuance that you are who you say you are.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Science and Technology