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53652. Republika Srpska - Poplasen, Brcko and Kosovo: Three Crises and Out?
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The early part of 1999 has been turbulent for Republika Srpska. Political life has been unsettled by three separate and hardly-related crises: the decision of the High Representative to remove from office the RS President Nikola Poplasen; the decision of International Arbitrator Roberts Owen to give the municipality of Brcko neither to RS nor to the Federation but to both as a condominium; and the NATO air-strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
53653. Macedonia Update: Challenges and Choices for the New Government
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The new Macedonian government marked its first hundred days in office in early March. Formed by the Macedonian Internal Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the Democratic Alternative (DA), and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) after the last parliamentary elections in October and November 1998, the government is headed by VMRO- DPMNE Chairman Ljubco Georgievski and has a comfortable majority of 73 out of 120 seats in the current parliament.
- Topic:
- Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
53654. Unifying The Kosovar Factions: The Way Forward
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Kosovo peace talks, held at Rambouillet (France) under the auspices of the sixnation Contact Group, have been suspended until 15 March 1999 after a provisional agreement was reached on granting substantial autonomy for Kosovo. However, neither the Kosovo Albanians nor Serbian delegates have yet signed the draft peace accord, which calls for a NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, and in which the "final status" issue has been deliberately fudged. The immense complexities of the Kosovo question were dramatically illustrated at Rambouillet by the last-minute refusal of the Albanian delegation to sign the accord, due to pressure from a hardline faction of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) which refused to attend the talks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
53655. Kosovo: The Road To Peace Critical Implementation Issues And a "Who's Who" of Key Players
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While last spring saw conflict erupt in Kosovo's central Drenica region when Serbian security forces attacked and killed residents of the villages of Prekaz and Likoshan, this spring brings the possibility of peace. The proposed deployment of a 28,000-strong international force for Kosovo will dramatically and immediately halt the sporadic low-intensity battles between Serbian security forces and ethnic Albanian rebels that have displaced 300,000 people. This peace will allow refugees to return to their homes, and provide the day-to-day sense of security on the ground that will enable Kosovo's transition to self-government.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
53656. Sidelining Slobodan: Getting rid of Europe's last dictator
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With just over two years to run before the end of his term as Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic remains entrenched in power in Belgrade. The Yugoslav constitution currently prevents the President from running for re-election in 2001, but while Milosevic may leave the presidency he shows no sign of forfeiting control and is in the process of purging both the army and secret police of all opposition. He also retains some residual influence over such cultural institutions as the Orthodox Church. Individuals who oppose his views and who are potential political opponents are invariably intimidated, often through brute force. Political party rivals are both attacked in the state and pro-regime press and also courted with the prospect of sharing power. The latest to succumb to that temptation has been Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Yugoslavia
53657. Breaking The Mould: Electoral Reform In Bosnia And Herzegovina
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Electoral reform is on the agenda this year in Bosnia and Herzegovina. For too long the country has been ruled by leaders who draw support from only one of the three main ethnic groups. These leaders have been unable to co-operate on even the simplest matters, inhibiting the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) and forcing the international community to micromanage the country. Electoral reform offers one promising way to allow Bosnians to choose less confrontational leaders, and so start to accept responsibility for their own future.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
53658. Brcko: A Comprehensive Solution
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Arbitral Tribunal on Brcko meets this month, and may or may not this time make its final decision, after postponements in 1997 and 1998. An award to either the Federation or Republika Srpska would provoke an extreme reaction: ICG advocates that a final decision should be made now, and that Brcko municipality should be reunited and made an autonomous district under the constitutional jurisdiction of the central government of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
53659. Macedonia:"New Faces In Skopje"
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The recent parliamentary elections and the change of government in Macedonia in many respects are a landmark in the country's development. The smooth transition of power from one political camp to another and the fact that the "radicals" from both major ethnic groups rather than the more moderate parties form the new government are significant in themselves. If the new government manages to solve Macedonia's problems, it might also have repercussions throughout the region. This report, prepared by ICG's field analyst in Skopje, looks back and draws lessons from the elections and the formation of the new government, looks ahead at the key policy changes facing the new administration, and assesses the capacity of the ruling coalition to meet those challenges.
- Topic:
- Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
53660. The State Of Albania
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Premier Pandeli Majko's new coalition government is slowly consolidating its hold over the administration, though the overall power of the government remains weak after the country was rocked in September by the worst political violence since the uprising of March 1997. Within the cabinet the deputy premier Ilir Meta has emerged as the key power in most decision-making and policy implementation. The new government consists of representatives of the Socialist Party (PS), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Union of Human Rights Party (PBDNj - this party represents the ethnic Greek minority), Democratic Alliance (AD), and the small Agrarian Party (AP). The largest opposition grouping the Democratic Party (DP), led by former president Sali Berisha, does not recognise the legitimacy of the Socialist-led government, is continuing its boycott of parliament and staging street rallies to push for early elections.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Albania
53661. Too Little Too Late: Implementation of the Sarajevo Declaration
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sarajevo's Bosniac authorities were given the opportunity to demonstrate their much-vaunted commitment to multi-ethnicity when, on 3 February 1998, representatives of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the Federation of Bosnia Herzegovina (Federation), Sarajevo Canton and the international community adopted the Sarajevo Declaration. The Declaration stressed the importance of the Bosnian capital “as a model of coexistence and tolerance for the rest of the country” and made it clear that: “The international community will condition continuation of assistance for Sarajevo on fulfilment of the benchmarks set out in this Declaration and on adequate progress toward meeting the 1998 goal of at least 20,000 minority returns.”
- Topic:
- Demographics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
53662. Regional Burden-Sharing for Humanitarian Action
- Author:
- David O'Brien
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The emergence of an international humanitarian system, the codification of international humanitarian law and the corresponding creation of supportive organizations, is arguably one of the most welcomed forms of multilateralism in the 20th century. At the close of this century, billions of dollars are raised annually by the UN system to alleviate the suffering caused by natural disasters and war but this financial support is declining and increasingly unable to meet humanitarian needs. This declining resource base, along with a search to diversify sources of funding and the recognition that some emergencies receive adequate attention while others do not, raises question for the need for new burden-sharing arrangements.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, International Organization, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa
53663. Underwriting Humanitarian Assistance
- Author:
- Shepard Forman
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The hopes and aspirations for international cooperation that marked the end of the Cold War had their most exuberant expression in the industrialized countries' ambitious approach to humanitarian intervention. Confronted with an unprecedented number of internal conflicts and media images of mass suffering, the Security Council charged the United Nations with more than a dozen new missions between 1987 and 1996. Conceived largely as peacekeeping operations, these interventions nonetheless took on the requirements and drama of humanitarian assistance as genocide, mass migrations and starvation took their toll on millions of people.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
53664. The Globalization of Services: What Has Happened? What Are the Implications?
- Author:
- Gary Hufbauer and Tony Warren
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Globalization has affected all facets of the world economy. This includes services, which in most economies are the single largest contributor to economic growth and employment. However, despite its importance to national output, the impact of globalization on services is only recently receiving the attention of researchers and policy-makers.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
53665. Hazards and Precautions: Tales of International Finance
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Erika Wada
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In the wake of financial crises in Mexico (1994-95), Asia (1997-98), Russia (1998) and Brazil (1998-99), respected observers have questioned the benefits of wide-open international capital markets (Bhagwati, 1998; Krugman, 1998; Rodrik, 1998; Eichengreen, 1999). Our purpose is to identify true hazards and suggest appropriate precautions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Asia, Brazil, and Mexico
53666. Does Talk Matter After All? Inflation Targeting And Central Bank Behavior
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Since 1990, a number of countries have adopted inflation targeting as their declared monetary strategy. Interpretations of the significance of this movement, however, have differed widely. To some, inflation targeting mandates the single-minded, rule-like pursuit of price stability without regard for other policy objectives; to others, inflation targeting represents nothing more than the latest version of cheap talk by central banks unable to sustain monetary commitments. Advocates of inflation targeting, including the adopting central banks themselves, have expressed the view that the transparency and communication of the inflation targeting framework grant the central bank greater short-run flexibility in pursuit of its long-run inflation goal.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
53667. Modeling Korean Unification
- Author:
- Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Tao Wang
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- For North Korea, product market integration would generate large welfare gains, sufficient to end the famine. Additional gains could be had through military demobilization. For the South, the impact of product market integration would be trivial, but the impact of factor market integration would be considerable, affecting the composition of output, distribution of income, and rate of growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, and Korea
53668. Sovereign Liquidity Crisis: The Strategic Case For A Payments Standstill
- Author:
- Marcus Miller and Lei Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Is sovereign borrowing so different from corporate debt that there is no need for bankruptcy-style procedures to protect debtors? With the waiver of immunity, sovereign debtors who already face severe disruption from short-term creditors grabbing their currency reserves are also exposed to litigious creditors trying to seize what assets they can in a 'race of the vultures'.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
53669. Panama Canal Transition: The Final Implementation
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, Jr. Gillespie, Brandon Grove Jr., and David E. McGiffert
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The implications of the transfer of the Panama Canal go well beyond U.S. relations with Panama. This complex transition provides an important lesson for Latin America and the rest of the world on how countries of vastly different size and outlook can work together. The success of this 20 year process lies mainly in first identifying the primary common interest of the United States, Panama and the major canal users: access to an open, safe and efficient canal. Important but secondary concerns, including U.S. military access to facilities in Panama, were addressed during the process but never were allowed to displace the primary interest. By focusing on this clear, compelling key objective, both Panama and the United States were able to accommodate fundamental changes in the political, economic and security context, including several changes in administrations, tough negotiations and even a military confrontation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Latin America
53670. Beyond Kosovo: A Regional Approach to the Balkans
- Author:
- Roger Kirk, Jack M. Seymour Jr., John Lampe, and Louis Sell
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Basic Factors Underlying a Regional Settlement 1. Any overall settlement in the Balkans should be area-wide and coordinated among the entities directly involved, the neighboring states, the key nations of the outside community, and the relevant political and economic international institutions. 2. It will have to include political arrangements, international security guarantees, and substantial economic assistance as a basis for genuine peace and reconciliation. 3. It must embrace generally accepted international standards, including respect for human rights and rights for ethnic minorities; right of return for all area refugees; rule of law; effective media freedom; and free elections supervised or, where necessary, organized by the international community. 4. The settlement should promote and institutionalize political and economic cooperation, regional trade and/or formal ties among the participating states and entities of the former Yugoslavia, and neighboring states as feasible, including the free flow of goods, labor and capital. 5. International assistance in reconstruction, economic reform and development of economic ties among the peoples of the region and with the European Community must be massive. It should, however, be designed to promote democratic institutions, market reform, adherence to peace agreements, and respect for human rights. 6. Such assistance should target the private sector, encourage local initiatives, and help governments pursue effective economic reform policies. It should seek to curtail corruption and the maintenance of unprofitable state industries. It should avoid encouraging international dependency. The purpose should be to build societies and practices conducive to self-reliance, international cooperation, and outside investment. Positive and negative lessons can be drawn from experiences in Bosnia. 7. The support of the broad population of Serbia will be necessary if peaceful and economically viable regional arrangements are to last. The reconstruction process implied in these arrangements will itself be an incentive for the Serbs to opt away from destructive nationalist policies and join in the regional reconstruction process. 8. Neither lasting peace in the Balkans nor democracy in Serbia can be achieved as long as Slobodan Milosevic remains in power. He has been indicted by the Tribunal in The Hague for crimes against humanity and his removal from power is a prime NATO objective. There are increasing and encouraging signs of popular Serb desire to be rid of Milosevic, but it is not certain that he will depart in the near future. 9. A regional settlement may have to be negotiated indirectly with, or imposed upon, Milosevic as the ruler of Serbia. It should nevertheless be made clear that the West condemns Milosevic\'s actions, that Serbia cannot resume its rightful place in Europe as long as it is governed by indicted war criminals, and that the West will help the people of Serbia in their efforts to bring forth new, democratic, cosmopolitan leadership in their country. 10. The Kosovar Albanians cannot be expected to live under Serbian control again for the foreseeable future. Arrangements short of formal independence such as an international protectorate or trusteeship are possible, indeed likely, for a transitional period. A more permanent and self-sustaining arrangement is highly desirable if it can be achieved without creating more instability in the former Yugoslav space and the neighboring area. 11. A credible international military presence is needed to encourage the return of the remaining Albanian-Kosovars, the continued residence of Serb-Kosovars and to maintain peace and order within Kosovo and on its borders. Such a presence will also be a lasting part of any transitional arrangement. Any foreseeable regional settlement will similarly require a prolonged foreign military presence. This settlement should, however, lay the foundation for an end to that presence by, among other things, providing for supervised demilitarization of the states and entities involved, and a comprehensive regional arms control agreement. 12. A central objective of any regional settlement should be to promote conditions that will encourage a stable political and military environment, economic growth, and increasing self-reliance. These changes will permit an end to the foreign military, political, and economic presence in the region, though no date for that termination should be set.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Kosovo, and Balkans
53671. Building an Asia-Pacific Security Community: The Role of Nuclear Weapons
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, James E. Goodby, Tomohisha Sakanaka, W. Neal Anderson, Tomohide Murai, and Shinichi Ogawa
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The main challenge for Asia is to build a security community that transforms a legacy of military competition into security cooperation. This transformation will be difficult because of the high level of distrust among the states and considerable uncertainty about future relations. Asia lacks the kinds of developed, institutionalized multilateral security arrangements that contribute to transparency, confidence-building and long-term stability. Furthermore, a “ business as usual ” approach that focuses on managing bilateral relationships is unlikely to result in a security community. More attention needs to be devoted to multilateral security efforts. Without the reassurance of a network of cooperative arrangements, including verifiable arms limitations, potential adversaries may place their hopes in achieving unilateral military advantages. Such efforts could foster fears of regional domination and, in turn, a potential arms race that includes nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
- Topic:
- Security and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
53672. An Appropriate Role for Nuclear Power in Meeting Global Energy Needs
- Author:
- Donald L. Guertin, Richard E. Balzhiser, Christian Gobert, William J. Dirks, Joy C. Dunkerley, and Stephen P. Pettibone
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Despite the recent global economic slowdown, the demand for energy services is bound to increase over the long term in order to provide improved living standards for growing populations, in particular in developing countries. In recognition of its unique characteristics, the demand for electricity will rise even faster than total energy. Several studies present scenarios that show a doubling of global installed capacity over the next twenty years.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
53673. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise
- Author:
- Philip Manow
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped there-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
53674. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise
- Author:
- Philip Manow
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped the re-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
53675. Environmental Quality and Regional Conflict
- Author:
- Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Allen Hammond, David A. Hamburg, Donald Kennedy, John D. Steinbruner, and Timothy E. Wirth
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict
- Abstract:
- This Web cast highlights issues raised by Donald Kennedy, president emeritus and Bing Professor of Environmental Science of Stanford University, in his newly released monograph Environmental Quality and Regional Conflict. David Hamburg, president emeritus of the Carnegie Corporation and Tim Wirth, president of the United Nations Foundation, will give introductory remarks. In addition to Kennedy, presenters include John Steinbruner, senior fellow at The Brookings Institution; Jessica Mathews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Allen Hammond, director of strategic analysis at the World Resources Institute
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Environment, Peace Studies, and Science and Technology
53676. From Civil War to Civil Society: The Transition from War to Peace in Guatemala and Liberia
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- Freed American slaves began to settle what is currently known as Liberia in the 1820s, often in the face of hostility from the local inhabitants. By 1847, the ex-slaves and their descendants had declared a republic and began a 150 year period of Americo-Liberian elite rule based on domination and exploitation of the indigenous population. In 1980, Americo-Liberian rule ended with a military coup staged by Samuel Doe. The ensuing regime, violently suppressed any form of opposition for the next ten years, creating deadly ethnic cleavages.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Central America, Liberia, and Guatemala
53677. Developing a Methodology for Conflict Prevention: The Case of Estonia
- Author:
- Joyce Neu and Vamik Volkan
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- In April 1994, with Russian troops still stationed in Estonia, The Carter Center's Conflict Resolution Program (CRP) joined with International Negotiation Network (INN) members Vamik Volkan of the University of Virginia's Center for the Study of Mind and Human Interaction (CSMHI) and Harold Saunders of the Kettering Foundation to implement a set of workshops. The three-year series aimed to reduce tensions on two fronts: between Russia and Estonia and between Russians in Estonia and Estonians.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Estonia
53678. Transparency Project
- Author:
- Jennifer McCoy and Shelley McConnell
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- The Carter Center's Americas Program and its Council of Presidents and Prime Ministers of the Americas have initiated a multiyear project to work with governments and civil society to develop monitoring mechanisms to help combat corruption in government transactions and serve as a model for the rest of the world. Greater "transparency" in government-business interactions can improve investor confidence, spur economic growth, provide better public services to the population, and increase public confidence in democratic institutions. At a high-level conference May 4-5, 1999, leaders from across the hemisphere came to The Carter Center to evaluate specific anti-corruption efforts and seek commitments from other governments to implement similar strategies in their own countries. In preparation for that conference, The Carter Center partnered with three countries—Ecuador, Jamaica, and Costa Rica—to develop and assess specific anti-corruption tools.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Human Rights, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean
53679. The Geopolitics of Energy Development in the Caspian Region: Regional Cooperation or Conflict?
- Author:
- Vadim Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The Caspian Basin has emerged in recent years as a major focus of international affairs for a combination of political, economic, and geostrategic reasons. In the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union's dissolution in the early 1990s the region's newly independent states were overshadowed by Russia and attracted little Western and U.S. attention. But over the past several years this region has attracted growing attention from Western policymakers and scholars, as well as the media and the private sector. One of the main reasons for this new focus on the Caspian is its sizable energy reserves. In addition to its potential as a significant oil producer, however, it is also the Caspian's geostrategic location, its diverse mix of ethnic groups, and its unsettled intrastate and interstate conflicts that make it both an enticing and challenging region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Development, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Caspian Sea
53680. The Cox Committee Report: An Assessment
- Author:
- Michael M. May, Alastair Iain Johnston, W.K.H. Panofsky, Marco Di Capua, and Lewis R. Franklin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The Cox Commission of the U.S. Congress was established in June 1998 to investigate concerns over Chinese acquisition of sensitive U.S. missile and space technology in connection with the launching of U.S. civilian satellites using Chinese launchers on Chinese territory. The investigations were broadened in October 1998 to include alleged security problems and possible espionage at the U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories. Some conclusions were released in January 1999 by the White House together with the administration's response. The full declassified (redacted) version of the report of the Cox Commission was released on May 25, 1999.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
53681. The U.S. Military and Civil Infrastructure Protection: Restrictions and Discretion under the Posse Comitatus Act
- Author:
- Gregory D. Grove
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- This article sets out the constraints of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 (the “Act”), which generally prohibits active enforcement of civilian laws by the military, and describes the discretion of the military commander to assist civilian law enforcement in protecting America's information infrastructure against computer—assisted attack. A primary purpose of this article is to help legal advisors to commanders and DoD civilian officials better understand the boundaries of command discretion so that commanders and officials can feel free to exercise proper command discretion to assist law enforcement according to military interests and their professional and personal ethics and ideals. Another primary purpose of the article is to appraise Congress of the Act, its prohibitions, and its application to assist in framing the policy debate about how to constrain or expand the discretion of commanders and other officials to most productively serve the American public.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
53682. The Nonproliferation Regime under Siege
- Author:
- George Bunn
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The nuclear nonproliferation regime was challenged in 1998 by nuclear-weapon tests in India and Pakistan, by medium-range missile tests in those countries and in Iran and North Korea, by Iraq's defiance of UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to complete its disclosure of efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and by the combination of “loose nukes” and economic collapse in Russia. Additional threats to the regime's vitality came in 1999 from the erosion of American relations with both China and Russia that resulted from NATO's 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia—with additional harm to relations with China resulting from U.S. accusations of Chinese nuclear espionage and Taiwan's announcement that it was a state separate from China despite its earlier acceptance of a U.S.-Chinese “one China” agreement. Major threats to the regime also came from the continued stalemate on arms-control treaties in the Russian Duma and the U.S. Senate, from a change in U.S. policy to favor building a national defense against missile attack, and from a Russian decision to develop a new generation of small tactical nuclear weapons for defense against conventional attack.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Korea
53683. Commercialization of Russian Technology in Cooperation with American Companies
- Author:
- David Bernstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The Soviet Union placed a high priority on science and technology and built a huge assembly of research institutes, educational programs, design bureaus, and production enterprises embodying some measure of science and/or technology. This assembly concentrated over—whelmingly on military applications. Approximately three—quarters of this complex was located in Russia, but essential elements of many programs were located in other republics. The nature, structure, size, and operation of this military—industrial complex (MIC) as well as its decline and change during the Gorbachev and post—Soviet periods of economic transition have been documented in the literature.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
53684. Climate Change and the Transformation of World Energy Supply
- Author:
- Steve Fetter
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- In December 1997, world attention turned to Kyoto, Japan, where parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) negotiated a protocol to reduce the greenhouse-gas emissions of the industrialized countries by 5 percent below 1990 levels over the next ten to fifteen years. The agreement has been attacked from both sides. Environmental groups assert that much deeper reductions are urgently needed. Opponents claim that the proposed reductions are either unnecessary or premature, would curtail economic growth, or would be unfair or ineffective without similar commitments by developing countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Japan
53685. A Cross-Regional Analysis of Civil Society and Democratic Development
- Author:
- Andrew Green
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- Domestic instability often has a deleterious effect at the international level, too, particularly as more states adopt democratic institutions and market-oriented economies. Whether we are talking about failing multi-ethnic states and their impact on the UN and NATO, or about failing economies and their impact on international markets and such international organizations as the IMF and the World Bank, it is clear that the domestic and international levels cannot be separated. While instability may arise from many different sources, the state-society connection is perhaps the most problematic: a democracy in which the only link between citizens and politicians is the electoral connection is a democracy impoverished by stagnant ideas and limited societal input. A state disconnected from society is prone to domestic instability, with negative effects at both the domestic and international levels.
- Topic:
- NATO, Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, International Political Economy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
53686. The Competitive Advantage of Hollywood Industry
- Author:
- Luc Veron
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- The author is very grateful for the support, both material and intellectual, which he received during his stay at the University of Southern California. He is particularly appreciative of the many conversations he had with colleagues at the School of International Relations, the Center for International Studies, the Marshall School of Business and the Department of Economics of USC as well as at UCLA's School of Public Policy and Social Research which greatly helped him to formulate the ideas presented here. Although the author is currently employed by the European Commission, the ideas expressed in this paper are purely personal and do not reflect the views of any institution.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and California
53687. Hollywood and Europe: A Case of Trade in Cultural Industries, the 1993 GATT Dispute
- Author:
- Luc Veron
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- The heated dispute that erupted at the end of the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) negotiations between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) on audio-visual services is fairly representative of the cultural argument in trade. Culture is often proclaimed to oppose full liberalisation of international exchanges of goods and services. In 1989, after the liberalisation of US film import in Korea, angry Koreans directors in some Seoul theatres showing US movies released poisonous snakes Japan traditionally opposed rice imports on the basis that it would endanger Japanese culture. The United States claimed that the "potato-potato-potato rhythm at idle and the staccato beat at cruising speeds" of a Harley-Davidson was part of the American culture with the obvious aim to ridicule any notion of culture, or more precisely of national culture. German director Wim Wenders replied to the latter by provocatively reminding that the essence of US national culture being trade the Americans have no sense of any possible contradiction between trade and culture. When, to justify the remarkable work of the Australian Film Commission, experts came up with a tentative definition of Australian culture, the simple evocation of Crocodile Dundee generated outrage, especially among the feminists. It is uneasy to find an acceptable and workable definition of national culture to analyse its impact on trade.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Europe, Germany, Australia, and Korea
53688. Evaluating the Post-Cold War Policy of the United States
- Author:
- Jonathan Dean
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Ambassador Jonathan Dean, Adviser on International Security Issues, Union of Concerned Scientists, presentation to the PDA symposium Ten Years After the Wall: Trends in post-Cold War U.S. Security Policy held at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 11 November 1999.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
53689. Islam In Economic Organizations
- Author:
- Ayşe Buğra
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- This project approaches the political economy of Islamic resurgence in Turkey by exploring different uses of Islam as a strategic resource. The study is organized in five parts: The first section situates Islamic resurgence in its international and domestic context and shows that Political Islam in Turkey derives its strength largely from its ability to respond to the challenges of the current environment. The second section looks at the manifestations of Islam in business life through an analysis of a) MÜSİAD (The Association of Independent Industrialists and Businessmen) that could successfully bring together a large number of enterprises of different sizes located in different geographical regions of the country, and b) special financial institutions as well as other, more informal arrangements used to generate investment funds on the basis of "relations of trust among the believers". In the third section, marketing strategies directed to Muslim consumers are explored through an analysis of certain advertising agencies and TV channels either owned by sect affiliated groups or known by their closeness to Political Islam represented by RP/FP. In the fourth section, the development of the labor union confederation Hak-Is, an important element in the RP/FP constituency, is discussed. Finally, the conclusion presents a summary of the findings. The findings of the study in these areas suggest that what could be called the economic world of Islam in Turkey is formed by networks of social relations which do not constitute a coherent whole, but appear as separate power blocs which try to reach those groups that feel alienated form the secular westernized political and economic establishment for the generation of investment of funds, for the marketing of specialized products, or in organized interest articulation and representation by business associations and labor unions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Islam, Political Economy, Business, and Labor Unions
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
53690. The American Economy: Sustaining Growth with Opportunity
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- From the June 1999 American Assembly of the same name, the report focuses on the issues of productivity, income inequality, and the aging of the baby boom generation.
53691. India and Pakistan’s Fissile Material and Nuclear Weapons Inventory, end of 1998
- Author:
- David Albright
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- Estimating the size of India and Pakistan’s inventory of separated weapon-grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU) has become more difficult following their nuclear tests in May, 1998. Both countries treat these numbers as highly classified, partly because such estimates provide a direct indication of the number of nuclear weapons they possess. In the case of Pakistan, what can be surmised is that it has resumed full-scale production of HEU, following a declared moratorium on such production since 1991. Abdul Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan’s uranium enrichment program, announced soon after the Pakistani tests that his country had never stopped making HEU. Although his comment has been greeted skeptically, it indicates that Pakistan may have resumed making weapon-grade uranium well before its tests in May, 1998.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Uranium, and Plutonium
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, and India
53692. Peacekeeping and Intervention in the Former Yugoslavia: Broader Implications of the Regional Case
- Author:
- Plamen Pantev
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- The aims of this research report are: First, to substantiate the meaning of the terms "intervention" and "peacekeeping" in the cases of Bosnia and Kosovo and how this may influence the broader interpretation of these activities in the post-Cold War period. Second, by learning from intervention and peacekeeping, as well as from conflict prevention and post-conflict rehabilitation in former Yugoslavia, to draft the prerequisites of a fundamentally new and more effective approach to international legal regulation of international relations, including to the timely management of regional conflicts. Third, to present some of the other interests beyond the moral and humanitarian ones that motivated the intervention, the peacekeeping and the strenuous peace building efforts in the post-Dayton and the post-Kosovo periods. The realisation of these tasks may facilitate theoretical and political work for shaping a more secure post-Cold War world.
- Topic:
- Peacekeeping, Humanitarian Intervention, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, and Balkans
53693. Conflict Prevention in the Baltic States: The OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
- Author:
- Rob Zaagman
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- The importance of national minority questions has long been recognised by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and this organisation has dealt with them extensively. Initially overshadowed by the East-West stand-off, minority issues were framed exclusively in terms of individual human rights, in particular the rights of persons belonging to national minorities. In “post-Wall” Europe, however, the explosive potential of many of them —e.g., in Yugoslavia and the Caucasus—became all too apparent. It also became clear that in this new era international violence would be mainly a consequence of domestic conflicts. Moreover, soon after the break-up of the Soviet Union the issue of the ethnic Russians outside the Russian Federation became an important factor in international relations in the OSCE area. As a result, minority issues are now mainly seen from the angle of conflict prevention, although this does include the continued pursuit of the implementation of human rights. The importance the OSCE attaches to minority issues as problems of peace and security is reflected most prominently in the office of the High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM) which was established in 1992 to prevent violent ethnic conflict. Equally, it finds its reflection in the mandates of most, if not all, of the long-term missions the OSCE has established over the years, of which inter-ethnic issues are the main and sometimes exclusive component. These developments fit in the increased emphasis the OSCE has been putting on conflict prevention, playing the role of an impartial, non-coercive third party. Against this background, the tense inter-ethnic relations in Estonia and Latvia were addressed early on by the OSCE. Even though no inter-ethnic violence had taken place, a number of factors made for a volatile mix in both Baltic states: firstly, the existence of domestic tensions between a large minority of mainly Russians without citizenship who had to get used to postSoviet realities and a majority determined to preserve and strengthen its own identity; and secondly, increasing international tensions because of the active interest which neighbouring Russia, mainly for geopolitical reasons, was taking in the condition of its kinfolk in Estonia and Latvia. By contrast, these factors were absent in the third Baltic state, Lithuania. As analysed in the following, the situations in Estonia and Latvia were typically cases for which the OSCE High Commissioner had been established. They demonstrate the extent to which international involvement can keep domestic conflicts tractable—by helping the parties to devise policies and positions which avoid an escalation of disputes and possibly irreconcilable differences—and thus at the same time prevent the build-up of international conflict potential. They are also showcases for the specific approach the OSCE High Commissioner has developed in dealing with tense inter-ethnic situations. Although for reasons of space the main emphasis of this paper will be on Estonia, it should be realised that many similar issues are at stake in Latvia.
- Topic:
- Security, Minorities, Conflict, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States
53694. The Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Minority Language Policies: Case Studies on Wales, Ireland and the Basque Country
- Author:
- François Grin and Francois Vaillancourt
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- The main contribution of the monograph is to demonstrate that it is possible to assess the output and costs of various language policies in such a way as to allow an explicit evaluation and ranking in terms of their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. To our knowledge, this study is the first of its kind, because it stresses the role of common units of measurement in order to make it possible to compare policies. We have therefore attempted to develop an approach different from that adopted in many existing discussions of the implementation of language policies. Such discussions often focus on the targets chosen (sometimes elaborating on targets put forward in earlier policy documents), and on the specific measures adopted to meet these targets; sometimes they offer a descriptive presentation of the effects of such measures. For example, a language planning office may set, as a target, the increase in the level of minority language skills of all teachers and school administrators in a particular region, whether they do or do not work in an establishment which uses the minority language as a medium of instruction. The authorities can then adopt corresponding measures, such as the legal requirement that all schoolteachers meet certain proficiency levels in the minority language. If some survey, five years on, confirms that the average competence level of schoolteachers in the minority language has risen, this will be a satisfactory result, but a moderately surprising one; at most, it would suggest that the “technical effectiveness condition” (condition No. 4, Section 6.2) has been met. Such an observation would, however, be of limited help in assessing whether this particular measure is effective or cost-effective with respect to a broader end-goal, such as the revitalisation of the minority language.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Ethnicity, Language, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Spain, Ireland, and Wales
53695. Language Policy in Multilingual Switzerland - Overview and Recent Developments
- Author:
- François Grin
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- Switzerland is often quoted as a success story for its handling of linguistic and cultural diversity. In this presentation, I will try to assess this success: to what extent is this reputation justified? What are the conditions that have resulted in this very particular way of dealing with diversity in a multilingual state? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the “Swiss model”? Since time and space are too limited to engage in a full-fledged historical, political, sociolinguistic and economic assessment of Swiss quadrilingualism, let alone in a comparative discussion, I will eschew the usual presentation of demo- and sociolinguistic data in favour of a more interpretative approach, with the aim to provide the reader with an analytical, rather than descriptive perspective on Swiss multilingualism today. Much relevant detail will have to be omitted, meaning that this text will concentrate on what I consider to be the essential dimensions of the problem. However, additional information (including an array of relevant figures) can be found in the references listed at the end of this paper. This paper is organised as follows. In Section 2, I review the historical foundations of Swiss multilingualism; the corresponding institutional arrangements are presented in Section 3; Section 4 is devoted to a discussion of the current challenges that Switzerland is confronted with in its handling of linguistic diversity.
- Topic:
- Multiculturalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, Diversity, and Language
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Switzerland
53696. Israel's National Security and the Myth of Exceptionalism
- Author:
- Gil Merom
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- GIL MEROM challenges the Israeli belief in national security exceptionalism. He compares strategic and moral dimensions of Israeli security with those of other states and concludes that the notion of Israel's national security exceptionalism is unfounded.
- Topic:
- National Security, Politics, and Exceptionalism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
53697. The United States and South Korean Democratization
- Author:
- James Fowler
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- JAMES FOWLER draws on interviews with State Department officials and recently declassified documents to analyze the role of the United States in South Korea's democratization, concluding that U.S. public pressure on the Korean government played a critical role in determining the timing of the transition.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and United States of America
53698. Defining Moment: The Threat and Use of Force in American Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Barry M. Blechman and Tamara Coffman Wittes
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- BARRY M. BLECHMAN and TAMARA COFMAN WITTES examine the uses of military threats and military interventions in the Bush and first Clinton administrations. Based on case studies and interviews with U.S. decision makers, they conclude that domestic and international political constraints are preventing U.S. leaders from making threats decisive enough to persuade foreign leaders to comply with U.S. demands.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Military Intervention, Bill Clinton, and George H. W. Bush
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
53699. The Escalation of U.S. Immigration Control in the Post-NAFTA Era
- Author:
- Peter Andreas
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- PETER ANDREAS examines the rapid escalation of U.S. immigration control efforts along our southwest border in recent years. He argues that enhanced border policing has less to do with actual deterrence and more to do with projecting an image of order and coping with the deepening contradictions of economic integration.
- Topic:
- Immigration, NAFTA, Borders, and Economic Integration
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
53700. Coalition Formation and the Regime Divide in Central Europe
- Author:
- Anna Grzymała-Busse
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The study examines the formation of coalitions in East Central Europe after the democratic transitions of 1989. Existing explanations of coalition formations, which focus on either office-seeking and minimum wmning considerations, or on policy-seeking and spatial ideological convergence. However, they fail to account for the coalition patterns in the new democracies of East Central Europe. Instead, these parties' flrst goal is to develop clear and consistent reputations. To that end, they will form coalitions exclusively within the two camps of the regime divide: that is, amongst parties stemming from the former communist parties, and those with roots in the former opposition to the communist regimes. The two corollaries are that defectors are punished at unusually high rates, and the communist party successors seek, rather than are sought for, coalitions. This model explains 85% of the coalitions that formed in the region after 1989. The study then examines the communist successor parties, and how their efforts illustrate these dynamics .
- Topic:
- Coalition, Post-Communism, and Democratic Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe