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7121. Prospects for Europe and the Atlantic Alliance at Century's End

Author:
William I. Hitchcock
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Ever since the end of the Cold War, analysts have engaged in long discussions about what sort of international order would replace it. Though these discussions have ranged widely in their assessments, they usually took as their starting point a common assumption: that the Cold War order and the basic structure of international relations it represented, was over and done for. From 1989 until about 1995, this assessment seemed accurate: the alliance was falling apart, war broke out in Europe, the western economies were in a tailspin, and the delicate architecture that bound Germany to the states of Western Europe seemed to be in jeopardy, overburdened by the arrival of a united, powerful Germany. Whatever order we had, it didn't seem like anything we had seen before.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

7122. Security Issues for Russia in the New International Context

Author:
Yuri Nazarkin
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The starting point for this paper is the National Security Blueprint of the Russian Federation approved by Presidential Decree No. 1300 dated 17 December 1997. As the Blueprint itself clarifies, it is "a political document reflecting the aggregate of officially accepted views regarding goals and state strategy in the sphere of ensuring the security of the individual, society and the state from external and internal threats of a political, economic, social, military, man-made (technogennyy), ecological, information or other nature, in the light of existing resources and potential." It is a conceptual document of a general nature which is intended to be the basis for the elaboration of specific programmes and organisational documents in the sphere of ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

7123. Conflict Management and European Security: The Problem of Collective Solidarity

Author:
Fred Tanner
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The dynamics of European security has become considerably more difficult to comprehend in recent years. This is due primarily to two sets of developments. First an "amorphous threat-free post-Cold War security setting" has replaced the distinct Alliance-wide threat from the Soviet Union. Second, new risks and threats have increasingly affected European security from regions immediately adjoining Western Europe. Conflicts and notorious instability loom in the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Balkans and the Mediterranean region, including North Africa and the Middle East. As a consequence, security cooperation in Europe currently struggles to cope with these risks of non-military nature and ambiguous threat scenarios from the "out-of-area".
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

7124. New Security Challenge or Old? Russia's Catch—22

Author:
William C. Wohlforth
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The most important security threat Russia faces, and the main threat it poses to the rest of the world, is its own implosion. If traditional security has to do with the manipulation and managment of the use of military force by states, then Russia's major contemporary problems must be understood under the "new security" rubric. Because the world has never before had to deal with the breakdown of a nuclear superpower, the security challenges Russia presents are certainly novel. But if "new security" is supposed to encompass problems that are transnational in nature and challenge state-centric analysis, then it too does not capture today's Russian question. For at the root of Russia's security problems is the absence of an effective government. To be sure, all of these problems are made more complicated by globalization. Many of them would continue to pester world politics even if Moscow had a capable government. But the root of these problems and the reason they present such great potential dangers is the absence of a capable state in Russia.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

7125. Ideas, Culture and Political Analysis Workshop

Author:
Thomas Risse, Sarah Mendelson, Neil Fligstein, Jan Kubik, Jeffrey T. Checkel, Consuelo Cruz, Kathleen McNamara, Sheri Berman, Frank Dobbin, Mark Blyth, Ken Pollack, George Steinmetz, Daniel Philpott, Gideon Rose, Martha Finnemore, Kathryn Skikkink, Marie Gottschalk, John Kurt Jacobsen, and Anna Seleny
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The last decade or so has witnessed a resurgence in scholarship employing ideational and cultural factors in the analysis of political life. This scholarship has addressed political phenomena across a variety of national and international settings, with studies of European politics being particularly well represented. For example, the work of scholars like Peter Hall (1993), Peter Katzenstein (1996), Ronald Inglehart (1997), Robert Putnam (1994) and Daniel Jonah Goldhagen (1995) has improved our understandings of European polities, societies and economies. Yet despite a recent rise in interest, ideational and cultural explanations still meet with skepticism in many quarters of the discipline. Some scholars doubt whether non-material factors like ideas or culture have independent causal effects, and others, who accept that such factors might matter, despair of devising viable ways of analyzing their impact on political life.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Democratization, Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, France, and Latin America

7126. The Future of the European Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy

Author:
Rebecca Johnson, Fraser Cameron, Alberto Navarro, Thierry Tardy, Sophia Clement, Glenys Kinnock, Tom Spencer, John Palmer, Joao de Deus Pinheiro, Christian Kudlich, Paolo Foresti, Hubert Heiss, Peter Ricketts, Elie Marcuse, Johannes Swoboda, Patricia Chilton, Maj Theorin, Stelios Stavrides, Thomas Eckert, Karen Smith, Krister Bringeus, Alexandra Laignel-Lavastine, Ognyan Minchev, Janos Vandor, Eric Remacle, Pauline Neville-Jones, Vasilij Likhachev, Peter Truscott, Jannis Sakellariou, Jesus Nunez, Claire Spencer, Birchara Khader, Alain Gresh, Lotte Leicht, Tim Hancock, David Nyheim, Francisco Rey, Bronwyn Brady, Geraldine O'Callaghan, Peter Saveiys, Brian Wood, Kiflemariam Gebrewold, Bernd Hemingway, and Alyson J. K. Bailes
Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
In his opening remarks as Chair of the conference, Tom Spencer, Chair of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, congratulated the organisers on their excellent timing. The European Union was now in a phase of 'pragmatic' evolution of CFSP and he believed the next nine months presented opportunities for progress.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

7127. Fearful, but not MAD — Modeling the Security Dilemma of Conventional Conflict

Author:
Erik Melander
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
This paper presents a simple and straightforward model of the security dilemma in settings in which the parties lack secure second–strike capabilities with weapons of mass destruction. The model includes first–strike advantages and incomplete information as to the antagonist's preference ordering. Imperfect information is used to simulate mutual fear of surprise attack.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Government

7128. Can U.N. Conferences Promote Poverty Reduction? A Review of the Istanbul Declaration

Author:
David Satterthwaite
Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
In considering how the Istanbul Declaration on Human Settlements and the Habitat Agenda, the two key documents agreed upon at the Habitat II Conference, deal with poverty (and with other important issues, such as sustainable development1), it is easy to point to a lack of precision in some of the language used, the repetition, and the tendency toward long lists of "problems" with little consideration of their linkages (and often their underlying causes). But this might also be an inevitable result of any document that had to be endorsed by representatives of so many different governments. Where the wording on some controversial issue appears unclear or imprecise, this may be because any greater clarity or precision prevented agreement by some representative of a government or some group of countries, such as the Group of 77 or the European Union.
Topic:
Security, Industrial Policy, Poverty, and United Nations

7129. Searching for Partners: Regional Organizations and Peace Operations

Author:
William H. Lewis and Edward Marks
Publication Date:
06-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
So declared Secretary-General Boutros-Ghali in 1994. Indeed, peacekeeping emerged in the post-Cold War period as the "most prominent U.N. activity." The organization was freed of the shackles placed upon it by superpower rivalry, that heretofore had rendered U.N. machinery inoperative in coping with local crises and was suddenly becoming "the center of international efforts to deal with unresolved problems of the past decades as well as the array of present and future issues." Between 1988 and 1993, more than a dozen new peacekeeping operations were launched, involving more than 70,000 military and civilian personnel for field operations, at an annual cost to the United Nations in excess of $3 billion.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Law, and International Organization

7130. Right Makes Might: Freedom and Power in the Information Age

Author:
David C. Gompert
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
China's emergence begs a fresh look at power in world affairs—more precisely, at how the spread of freedom and the integration of the global economy, due to the information revolution, are affecting the nature, concentration, and purpose of power. Perhaps such a look could improve the odds of responding wisely to China's rise.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Soviet Union