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4851. Illusive Reform: Jordan's Stubborn Stability

Author:
Julia Choucair
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since independence in 1947, Jordan has shown a remarkable ability to survive as a political entity. Surrounded by regional conflict and starved of resources, it has endured a massive influx of Palestinian refugees and numerous coup attempts. For decades, the Hashemite monarchy has overcome these political and economic storms by weakening institutionalized opposition to its rule and relying on the distribution of benefits and privileges to create a cohesive support base and a security establishment loyal to the existing political order. The regime has been able to sustain this situation by capitalizing on Jordan's geographic centrality. Benefiting from Jordan's image as an oasis of stability in a deeply troubled region, the monarchy has been able to secure a flow of external assistance that has helped counteract the lack of natural resources and maintain domestic political stability. But the balance has always been precarious. The contemporary process of political reform in Jordan must be understood in this context.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

4852. Foreign Aid and the Weakening of Democratic Accountability in Uganda

Author:
Andrew Mwenda
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Africa is the world's poorest continent. Between 1974 and 2003, the per capita income in sub-Saharan Africa declined by 11 percent. Africa continues to trail the rest of the world on human development indicators including life expectancy; infant mortality; undernourishment; school enrollment; and the incidence of HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. The international aid lobby advocates more foreign aid and greater debt relief for Africa as solutions.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

4853. Suicide Terrorism and Democracy: What We've Learned Since 9/11

Author:
Robert A. Pape
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, terrorist organizations have increasingly relied on suicide attacks to achieve political objectives. The specific goal sought in almost all suicide terrorist campaigns in modern history is the same: to compel a democratic state to withdraw combat forces from territory prized by the terrorists. This holds true for al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization of greatest concern to most Americans. Al-Qaeda's efforts to mobilize people to kill Americans are driven principally by a simple strategic goal: to drive the United States and its Western allies from the Arabian Peninsula and other Muslim countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, America, Arabia, and Arabian Peninsula

4854. Iran's Nuclear Program: America's Policy Options

Author:
Ted Galen Carpenter
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Although it is possible that negotiations between the leading powers in the international community and Iran may produce a settlement to the vexing issue of Iran's nuclear program, it is more likely that those negotiations will fail. If that happens, U.S. policymakers face a set of highly imperfect options.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, America, Iran, and Middle East

4855. Reappraising Nuclear Security Strategy

Author:
Rensselaer Lee
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The danger posed by Russia's inadequately secured stocks of nuclear weapons and fissile material is a major national security concern for the United States. Various cooperative U.S.-Russian programs aimed at securing nuclear material, weapons, and design intelligence have been mounted since the 1990s, but clever and determined adversaries may be able to circumvent or defeat the defenses that the United States and its partners are attempting to put in place. U.S. programs are by their nature reactive: they have long time horizons; they focus preeminently on the supply side of the problem; and they face serious technological limitations. Russia's imperfect commitment to nonproliferation also undermines the effectiveness of U.S. nonproliferation efforts.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

4856. CATO Institute: KidSave: Real Problem, Wrong Solution

Author:
Michael Tanner and Jagadeesh Gokhale
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
There is growing bipartisan recognition that the pathway out of poverty is not through consumption but through saving and accumulation. That idea has led to a number of interesting and innovative experiments by state and local governments and by private charitable organizations and has helped fuel the drive for personal accounts as part of Social Security reform.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Economics, and Government

4857. The Rise and Fall of the Bush Doctrine: the Impact on Transatlantic Relations

Author:
Justin Vaisse
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Between 2002 and 2005, a relatively coherent and profoundly renewed strategic approach to international relations was developed by the Bush administration. Premised on an optimistic assessment of great power relations (”a balance of power that favors freedom”), it emphasized the importance of promoting democracy as a way to solve many of the long-term political and security problems of the greater Middle East. It rested on the view that American military power and assertive diplomacy should be used to defeat tyrannies, challenge a pernicious status quo and coerce states into abandoning weapons of mass destruction and support for terrorism - without worrying too much about legitimacy or formal multilateralism. The Bush doctrine led to tensions with the Europeans, who for the most part shared neither the world view that underpinned it nor its optimism about possible results, especially as far as geopolitical stability, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction were concerned. Then, in 2005, two silent developments took place: the Bush administration, while insisting on staying the course rhetorically (through “transformational diplomacy”), reverted to classical realism in its actual diplomacy - largely for reasons of expediency. China and India, on the other hand, imposed themselves on the global agenda, bringing multipolarity back into the picture of the world to come. While generally closer to European views, the new American realist line remains distinct from the European insistence on strengthening the rules and institutions of global governance.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Terrorism, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Middle East

4858. The Unraveling of the Atlantic Order: Historical Breakpoints in U.S.-European Relations

Author:
Charles A. Kupchan
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The argument of this paper is that the Atlantic order is in the midst of a fundamental transition. The transatlantic discord that has emerged since the late 1990s marks a historical breakpoint; foundational principles of the Atlantic security order that emerged after World War II have been compromised. Mutual trust has eroded, institutionalized cooperation can no longer be taken for granted, and a shared Western identity has attenuated. To be sure, the Atlantic democracies continue to constitute a unique political grouping. But as scholars and policy makers alike struggle to diagnose the troubles that have befallen the Atlantic community and to prescribe mechanisms for redressing the discord, they would be wise to recognize the scope of change that has been taking place in the Atlantic order.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

4859. Inevitable Decline versus Predestined Stability: The Structure of Disciplinary Explanations of the Evolving Transatlantic Order

Author:
Gunther Hellmann
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The future of NATO has been a hotly debated topic at the center of IR debates ever since the end of the Cold War. It has also been a very complicated one given the discipline's conceptual and theoretical difficulties in studying change. Most analysts now agree that NATO (and the transatlantic order more broadly) are going through some major changes. Yet while there is consensus that the depth as well as the pace of these changes is more far-reaching than in past decades it is unclear exactly how deep and how far these changes reach. In order to come to grips with these changes most of the chapters in this book are exploring the character as well as the sources of these changes. This chapter approaches the topic by examining how the discipline has dealt with the question of the evolution of the transatlantic order in the past. It argues that IR has not been very well equipped conceptually to deal with the phenomenon in question, ie. large-scale processes of change. In applying a typo-logical framework developed by Paul Pierson the chapter discusses what types of causal accounts have dominated in the IR literature – and what this may tell us about particular strengths, biases and potential blind spots in coming to grips with the evolution of this order. In essence it argues that the structure of the most prominent explanations is often quite similar irrespective of paradigmatic descent. Inspite of major differences – inspite, even, of mutually exclusive predictions – as to the expected path of the order ́s evolution realist, liberal and constructivist accounts heavily rely in equal fashion on causal arguments which emphasize large-scale causal processes which are almost always framed in rather statist structural terms even though they essentially entail slow moving causal processes. This temporal dimension of the causal processes presumably shaping the future of the transatlantic order is seldom spelled out in detail, however. Thus, if one examines the debate as a whole one sees a picture of IR scholarship which essentially oscillates between two extremes: the position that NATO (as the core institution of the transatlantic order) was (and is) certain to survive and the position that it was (and is) certain to collapse. What is more, these extremes on a spectrum of possible positions on the transatlantic order ́s evolution between breakdown on the one hand and successful adaptation on the other are not hypothetical but mostly real. Thus, the debate does not gravitate towards the center (ie. a position which, for instance, envisages a loser but still cooperative relationship) after the usual give and take of exchanging scholarly arguments. Rather it mostly sticks with either of the two extreme positions. The chapter illustrates the problems associated with this point in some details and discusses potential remedies.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, Cold War, and Politics

4860. The Idea of the West:: Changing Perspectives on Europe and America

Author:
Andrew Gamble
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
America owes its origins to Europe and is unthinkable without Europe, but there has always been a strand of American thinking which has downplayed the connection and wished to assert the exceptionalism of the American experience and the need for America to keep Europe at a distance to involve contamination from its old, corrupt power politics. Europeans were fascinated by the new world unfolding in America, which contrasted so sharply with their own, yet was so intimately related to it. At the same time they regarded America as for the most part a novice and outsider in world politics. Recently roles have been reversed, with many Europeans condemning America as a new Empire, while many Americans accuse Europe of refusing to share the burdens and make the hard choices needed for global leadership. The idea of the West which for four decades united Western Europe under American leadership after 1945 has been undermined. Different current meanings of the 'West' are explored through recent arguments about the nature of the relationship between Europe and America, focusing on narratives of security, modernity and ideology. A number of possible scenarios for the future of this relationship are then outlined.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Europe