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1. Transgressive Sexual Politics, Structural Homophobia: Wilders and Milei in the Global Populist Radical Right

Author:
Luca Ghislandi
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
This article examines how sexuality operates as a strategic instrument within the ideological configurations of the Populist Radical Right (PRR) by comparing Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Javier Milei in Argentina. Both leaders appear to challenge the PRR’s traditional sexual conservatism: Wilders by portraying himself as a defender of LGBT rights and Milei by performing a libertarian, sexually transgressive persona. Yet, both ultimately reproduce structural forms of homophobia. Drawing on discourse analysis, frame analysis, and process tracing, the paper argues that these seemingly divergent stances constitute localized rearticulations of the PRR’s core triad of nativism, authoritarianism, and populism. Wilders’ “civilizational liberalism” weaponizes queer rights to define Dutch identity against a racialized Muslim “Other,” enacting conditional inclusion and rendering migrant and Muslim queer subjects invisible. Milei’s “libertarian anti-statism” fuses sexual libertarianism with anti-gender politics, using anti-elitist and market-oriented rhetoric to dismantle the state infrastructures that sustain gender and sexual equality, a form of institutional subtraction. Despite opposite performances–Wilders as celibate guardian, Milei as transgressive iconoclast–both mobilize sexuality to police the boundaries of citizenship, legitimize masculine authority, and reinforce exclusionary national imaginaries. The analysis situates these cases within broader global trends in the PRR, demonstrating that contemporary far-right sexual politics no longer depend on explicit moral conservatism but instead on the modernization of homophobia: maintaining inequality through the languages of freedom, tolerance, and civilization.
Topic:
Politics, Populism, Ideology, Radical Right, and Homophobia
Political Geography:
Europe, Argentina, South America, and Netherlands

2. Duterte’s Populist Foreign Policy as Illiberal Defiance: Consequences and Prospects

Author:
Aries A. Arugay
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Barely two months into his presidency of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte attended the 2016 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Vientiane, Laos. The former mayor of Davao City had just swept the presidential election to become the first executive from outside of the Manila-based political establishment. Rather than reading a scripted speech, he launched into an impromptu tirade about colonial atrocities by the United States. Duterte went on to defend his violent war on drugs and rebut the criticisms of his equally violent purge of suspected criminals.1 The world was shocked by the bad manners exhibited by Duterte, especially his insult to then U.S. president Barack Obama.2 This was the beginning of the shift in Philippine foreign policy toward a more populist, illiberal, and revisionist posture—one that would last until Duterte’s presidency ended in 2022. This essay advances two core arguments about how Duterte’s right-wing populism shaped Philippine foreign policy. First, Duterte’s foreign policy was not motivated by an ideology, so much as by a performance anchored in symbolic defiance, personalized diplomacy, and selective norm rejection.3 Second, Duterte’s populist revisionism ultimately collided with entrenched structural constraints, including the country’s enduring security dependence on the United States, institutional resistance within the bureaucracy, and the democratic political succession that brought the nonpopulist President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to power. Taken together, these constraints exposed the limits of populist foreign policy in a small and militarily vulnerable state situated on the front lines of the U.S.-China rivalry. Since Duterte was elected, there has been widespread recognition that populism’s impact goes beyond national borders. In Europe, for instance, populists tended not to touch traditional foreign policy and security issues until the 2015 refugee crisis. The wave of populism that followed was marked by a contempt for the cosmopolitan European outlook that had long underpinned support for the European Union, liberal migration policies, and Europe’s reliance on the United States for its security.4 Populists on both the left and right are often skeptical of multilateral institutions because they restrain state power. Venezuela’s former president Hugo Chávez, for example, attempted to form alternative regional institutions in the Americas to counter U.S. hegemony.5 The revisionist impulse inherent in populism inclines its leaders toward foreign policy adventurism, even though abrupt shifts are uncommon given the durability of national strategic interests. Populist leaders also often exhibit a high risk tolerance—especially personalist leaders in command of highly concentrated state power.6 Moreover, they often see foreign policy as a means of weakening their political opponents and consolidating power at home. They also crave international recognition, which they pursue through “megaphone diplomacy” that foregrounds their personality and charisma.7 The burden of managing foreign relations is bearable for the populist up to the point that strategic reality intervenes, imposing itself in ways that leave scant room for performance. Populist politics, therefore, are unable to resist the water’s edge. This essay proceeds by tracing the right-wing populist currents in Philippine foreign policy under Duterte through three major international issues: disputes with China in the South China Sea, the attempted abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States, and the country’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Respectively, each of these issues foregrounds one of the foundations of Philippine foreign policy that Duterte attempted to undermine: international law, the Philippines’ alliance with the United States, and human rights. The essay goes on to analyze how these foreign policy stances resonated with the revisionist orientations of countries that Duterte sought inspiration from—namely China and Russia. These revisionist narratives were reinforced in the Philippines through domestic disinformation networks that learned strategies from Russia and China.8 Finally, the essay highlights the implications of Duterte’s populist policies under the Marcos Jr. administration and examines the prospects of their revival in the future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Populism, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

3. The French Far Right’s Foreign Policy: Big Ambitions, Uncertain Direction

Author:
Catherine Fieschi
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
France occupies a singular position in Europe when it comes to right-wing populist and far-right politics. The country is home to one of the oldest and most electorally successful far-right and populist traditions in Western Europe—from its pre–Second World War thinkers such as Charles Maurras and groups such as Action Française to the tax revolt movement of Pierre Poujade in the 1950s and now the political party known as the Rassemblement National (National Rally)—yet no right-wing populist or far-right party has captured the presidency since the Second World War. At the same time, in France of all European countries, such a takeover would have the most immediate and consequential foreign policy effects, given the extraordinary concentration of diplomatic and military authority vested in the French presidency itself. The case of the National Rally offers a useful window into the intersection of populism, foreign policy, and strong presidentialism. Specifically, it highlights the difficulties populist leaders encounter in building alliances, both globally and within Europe, and helps explain why populists may end up hedging on key foreign policy positions. The possibility of a Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella presidency, moreover, underscores a broader risk: that right-wing populism in middle powers could erode the very international order that has enabled middle powers to attain and sustain their influence. The differences between the National Rally’s two leaders—Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella—are also emblematic of a broader divide among right-wing populists in Europe: On the one side, there are those who aim to reshape Europe from within by steering EU institutions in a conservative-national direction. Hungary’s ousted Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni loosely embody this side, which in France is represented by Jordan Bardella. On the other side, there are those who reject the EU’s supranational constraints altogether. Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, represents the latter, which in France is closer to Le Pen. What makes France distinctive is that this divide exists within a single party and between its two potential presidential candidates for 2027—with Le Pen retaining the loyalty of much of the party’s cadre, but with Bardella, despite internal resistance, also commanding broad electoral support.1 In France, the question of who will campaign for the presidency will therefore be critical.2 Le Pen—and her “brand”—remains the party’s strongest electoral asset and would likely have a better chance of winning a presidential election than Bardella. Yet her instincts remain more confrontational toward Europe and multilateral institutions. By contrast, while Bardella is more market-friendly and potentially less disruptive internationally, he remains—despite his popularity with voters—untested in the uniquely demanding environment of French presidential campaigning.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Populism, Domestic Politics, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe and France

4. Hungary as a Trailblazer: the Rise of Illiberal Democracy and its Discontents

Author:
Péter Magyar
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In the fast-changing political landscape of Europe, Hungary has set a controversial example of a new style of governance[1]. Viktor Orbán’s Hungary is often seen as the pioneer of illiberal democracy, rejecting liberal democratic norms in favour of centralizing power, manipulating narratives, and eroding the checks and balances of the state. Orbán’s rise and methods have had a profound impact on the political trajectories of other European nations, influencing populist leaders from Poland to Serbia, but also from France to the Netherlands. Yet, Hungary’s transformation and its broader implications for the future of European politics remain largely misunderstood by many in the West.
Topic:
Governance, Populism, Illiberal Democracy, Viktor Orbán, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

5. American Populism, American Personhood

Author:
Colin Anthony MacNairn
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Current American populism—an endogenous product of liberal capitalism— functions less as an interruption of liberal democracy than as the political form through which its contradictions are expressed. Starting from that premise, this essay traces how citizens, rendered economically superfluous and politically abstracted, reach for meaning through affective grievance—grievance that populism captures, reroutes, and converts into allegiance. By placing C.B. Macpherson’s critique of possessive individualism in dialogue with Dietrich Bonhoeffer’s analysis of moral incapacitation, A.N. Whitehead’s insights on simplified ideals, and Kant’s republican account of public right, this essay reconstructs the mechanisms by which structural dispossession is transformed into cultural antagonism. Through political-theoretical argument augmented with empirical illustrations, this essay provocatively demonstrates that American populism’s emotional economy reinforces the very structure it claims to resist and why any democratic renewal ought to begin with a reconstruction of personhood itself
Topic:
Politics, Capitalism, Populism, Donald Trump, Illiberal Democracy, Critical Democratic Theory, and New Democratic Theory
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

6. Botswana land policies, colonial legacy, socio-economic injustice and the politics of populism

Author:
Sheila Khama
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
This briefing highlights the key challenges and policy recommendations related to Botswana’s land tenure system, with a particular focus on the government’s recent acquisition of land from the Tati Company and its implications for land governance and socioeconomic justice. Historically, Botswana's land tenure system evolved through pre- and post-colonial eras, divided into three categories: communal (tribal), state (formerly Crown), and freehold land. Despite minimal white settler presence compared to other African nations, land ownership by former colonial settlers remains a sensitive issue, raising questions about socioeconomic equity. A 2023 government purchase of 45,000 hectares of freehold land from the Tati Company reignited debate on land ownership and absentee landlords, as well as urban land shortages. The transaction, while symbolic, was criticised for failing to address deeper land access issues. The purchase underscored ongoing tensions around land rights and the state’s need to ensure equitable land distribution and effective use.
Topic:
Post Colonialism, Populism, Socioeconomics, and Land Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

7. Slovakia: civil society opposes its leaders

Author:
Radovan Gura and Gilles Rouet
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
For some years now, Slovakia has been going through a period of profound political change. Marked by a complex history influenced by the Pan-Slavic movement and the legacy of the communist period, the Slovak political scene is characterised by growing instability, a division of society and a rise in populist discourse. Successive events have fuelled discontent and protests, which are now directed at the Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Topic:
Civil Society, Elections, Populism, Domestic Politics, and Post-Communism
Political Geography:
Europe and Slovakia

8. Europeans still want climate action, but don't trust governments to deliver

Author:
Jan Eichhorn and Heather Grabbe
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The vast majority of Europeans continues to support action to combat climate change, but many are losing faith in governments to deliver a transition that is effective and fair. Based on a large-scale questionnaire answered by nearly 8000 people in five EU countries in 2024, with a comparison to responses from 2020, we find that Europeans continue to worry about climate change and want effective action to combat it, even though the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly increased their concerns about economic and physical insecurity. Scepticism about the causes of climate change has risen a bit, and concern about adapting to its impact has grown. People across all income groups, particularly in France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, feel negative about the outlook for their economic future and their governments’ ability to improve it. People who feel politically disaffected think that decisionmakers are not taking their views and interests into account when making economic and climate policies. Some people are now shifting their attention away from action against the climate crisis towards adaptation, but this does not mean they are less concerned about climate change. Instead, for some people, it is an expression of their disillusionment with state institutions – and this feeling is present among supporters of parties across the political spectrum. Worry about climate change is equally spread across all socio-economic groups. Closer examination of attitudes in Germany, using evidence from focus groups, which we also discuss in this Policy Brief, reinforces the finding of increasing scepticism about the German government’s ability to manage the climate crisis. If political leaders want the public to continue to support climate policies, they must engage proactively now to avoid even greater loss of confidence in government. If governments go soft on efforts to combat the climate crisis now or delay action, they will not meet voters’ demand for an effective and just transition. Moreover, hesitation and delay would boost populist and far-right actors’ efforts to sow doubt about the causes of climate change and whether policies will be effective.
Topic:
Climate Change, Elections, Populism, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

9. The Rise of the Authoritarian Populist Right: The Illiberal Defenders of Freedom?

Author:
Péter Krekó
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In recent years, political forces promoting exclusionary, nationalist, and illiberal ideologies are undeniably on the rise—not only in authoritarian regimes, but across the democratic world as well. Symbols once believed to be buried in the past, such as the Nazi or Roman salute, have resurfaced in mainstream political movements. For instance, in 2018, members of the far- right group Generation Identity were filmed performing the Roman salute in Austria, reminiscent of historical fascist movements.1 In 2024, members of the youth wing of Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s governing party were caught on tape making Nazi salutes.2 Similarly, far-right activists and politicians in the United States have been seen engaging in or defending such gestures, thus normalizing them in contemporary politics.3 As recently as January 2025, prominent U.S. public figures—including Elon Musk and Steve Bannon— have used the salute, only to deny it afterward. But this game only adds to the gesture’s theatrical appeal, turning it into a secret expression of one’s “true” beliefs under supposed ideological oppression. This flashy shift in symbolism has occurred alongside the growing prevalence of overtly racist and exclusionary rhetoric. In countries such as Hungary and Italy, mainstream politicians have adopted narratives that frame migrants as existential threats to national identity, often using openly racist language previously thought to be taboo. Prior to this decade, mainstream far-right parties typically used softer, more “politically correct” ethno-nationalist language, blaming certain cultural patterns and traditions (e.g., the treatment of women among Muslims) instead of making explicit references to the color of skin.4 But many politicians no longer feel the need to mask their agenda behind subtle or restrained language. For example, in July 2022, Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, made his point clear when he declared, “We [Hungarians] are not a mixed race ... and we do not want to become a mixed race.”5 Meanwhile, in the American media, figures like journalist Tucker Carlson have promoted the “Great Replacement” conspiracy theory—a set of unsubstantiated claims that the “globalists” are deliberately replacing white Americans with immigrants and people of color to erode traditional American values and deprive “old America” of political power. This theory, previously confined to the fringes of white supremacist circles, became a cornerstone of the politics of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán as an official explanation for the demographic trend in Europe. Conspiracy theories now flourish at the highest levels of political decision-making, shaping policies on immigration, public health, and election integrity, among others, in Europe and the United States.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Populism, Right-Wing Politics, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Informe sobre la democracia en España 2024

Author:
Lluís Orriols, Oriol Bartomeus, Sandra León, Miguel Artola Blanco, and Antonio M. Jaime-Castillo
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La democracia española en 2024 se situó en una posición paradójica entre la fragmentación y el equilibrio. Por un lado, los principales indicadores internacionales de calidad democrática la incluyen entre las democracias plenas y consolidadas del mundo; sin embargo, esa fortaleza contrasta con un cierto descontento interno más difuso, donde la desconfianza ciudadana hacia algunas instituciones, así como el avance de los discursos populistas y polarizadores dominaron la esfera pública. España refleja así una tensión común a muchas democracias contemporáneas, y es la distancia entre los indicadores formales y la percepción subjetiva de los ciudadanos, o los expertos consultados. En 2024 algunos contextos amplificaron dicha distancia, entre ellos el procés en Cataluña y la ley de amnistía, pero también hubo una búsqueda de cierto equilibrio. De hecho, ha sido necesaria una negociación constante para llegar a acuerdos de gobierno que permitieran la gobernabilidad. La cuestión central es si este equilibrio puede sostenerse en el tiempo o si, por el contrario, la acumulación de tensiones erosionará la confianza en el sistema. En este informe, los autores señalan algunas alternativas para ayudar a mantener o incrementar el equilibro, alejándolo de la fragmentación. Las prioridades identificadas pasan por cambios en el poder judicial, reformas en política de vivienda o anticiparse a posibles efectos de las reformas de los modelos de financiación autonómica.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Violent Extremism, European Union, Democracy, Inequality, Economy, Populism, Political Science, Industry, Polarization, and Fragmentation
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

11. Liberty, Affect, and The Rise of Populism

Author:
Colin Anthony MacNairn
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
In this essay, I reinterpret Hartley B. Alexander’s early 20th-century account of liberty and democracy in light of the 21st-century populist resurgence, integrating the economic analysis of Jonathan Hopkin and Mark Blyth. By combining Alexander’s concerns surrounding the ethical collapse of democratic citizenship with Hopkin and Blyth’s diagnosis of structural economic disenfranchisement, I construct a dual account of populism’s rise as the convergence of moral atrophy and institutional decay. From Trump’s America to Modi’s India, populism emerges as a liberty weaponised against itself. I argue that populism is a condition wherein the form of democracy is preserved, but its substance is debased, thereby reduced to spectacle, demagoguery, and institutional dysfunction. Drawing on specific examples and institutional analysis, I further argue for a reconstruction of liberty grounded in moral formation and institutional responsiveness, thus offering a normative pathway beyond the populist condition.
Topic:
Economics, Ethics, Populism, Liberty, and Political Philosophy
Political Geography:
India, South America, North America, and United States of America

12. Global Islamophobia and the Rise of Populism with Audrey Truschke and Ivan Kalmar (Episode 35)

Author:
Audrey Truschke and Ivan Kalmar
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Dr. Audrey Truschke and Professor Ivan Kalmar analyze the alarming global surge in Islamophobic violence and discriminatory policies, particularly in Eastern Europe and South Asia. Our guests explore how economic and political insecurities have fueled dangerous scapegoating of Muslim citizens and refugees, transforming vulnerable religious minorities into targets of state-sanctioned persecution. This thought-provoking episode examines the human cost of populist rhetoric and offers critical insights into one of today's most pressing human rights issues: the systematic marginalization of Muslim communities across national borders. Listen to the conversation on the intersection of religious identity, nationalism, and the global struggle for dignity and belonging. The conversation is based on their contributions to the book Global Islamophobia and the Rise of Populism published by Oxford University Press in 2024.
Topic:
Minorities, Refugees, Populism, Discrimination, and Islamophobia
Political Geography:
South Asia and Eastern Europe

13. The Impact of Trump’s Anti-Immigration Discourse on Asylum Applications in the Balkans (2017–2021)

Author:
Vasil Pavlov and Siddharth Kanojia
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Immigration has become an increasingly contentious political and social issue in Europe over the past decade. The growing influx of asylum seekers has been driven by deteriorating security conditions, armed conflicts, and political and economic instability in various regions, alongside the comparatively higher living standards in Europe. As a global hegemon, the United States has indirectly shaped migration patterns in peripheral regions such as the Balkans. This paper examines how President Donald Trump’s anti-immigration discourse during his first term (2017–2021) coincided with an approximately 45% decrease in asylum applications from the Balkans. Drawing on official statistics and employing Critical Discourse Analysis, the study explores how US rhetoric influenced regional policy emulation. The findings underscore the transnational impact of populist discourse and call for a critical reassessment of migration governance in key transit regions.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Populism, Donald Trump, Asylum, and Securitization
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

14. Instruments of Hybrid Warfare: Dissemination of Pro-Russian Propaganda Narratives Through Populist Politicians in the Slovak Republic

Author:
Martin Solik, Dalibor Velký, and Jan Graf
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article uses thematic discursive analysis to examine selected pro-Kremlin populist politicians in Slovakia. The enforcement of one-sided propagandist thoughts and opinions, primarily through radical anti-system politicians and 'alternative' media outlets freely available on the internet, has become one of the most important aspects of hybrid warfare in today's world. This paper aims to identify the specific goals of Russian propaganda and clarify how populist politicians spread propaganda on social media through language resources. The results of the analysis are presented at the end of the paper, along with the word resources used by these politicians. The results prove that pro-Kremlin populist politicians use word and language manipulation to help spread unilaterally focused and distorted information in Slovakia. This article aims to build on and complement existing research on pro-Kremlin anti-system politicians and their role in Russia's hybrid warfare in Europe.
Topic:
Politics, Media, Populism, Propaganda, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, and Slovakia

15. The Vicious Circle of Xenophobia: Immigration and Right-Wing Populism

Author:
Frédéric Docquier and Hillel Rapoport
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We investigate the bidirectional relationship between immigration and right-wing populism, which we characterize as a self-reinforcing dynamic process where anti-immigrant rhetoric and populist policies lead to a deterioration in the average education and skill level of immigrants. The deterioration in the ratio of high-skill to low-skill immigrants in turn fuels populist support and anti-immigration attitudes, creating what we call “the vicious circle of xenophobia”. We review some historical and contemporary studies that are suggestive of such vicious circle. In particular, recent crosscountry evidence shows that low-skill immigration tends to exacerbate populism, while high-skill immigration tends to mitigate it. Conversely, populist policies and xenophobic attitudes have a strong repulsive effect on highly-skilled immigrants and result in adverse immigrant selection. We use the empirical results from those studies to inform a theoretical model of joint determination of immigrants’ skill-ratio and right-wing populism levels. The model displays multiple equilibria, with the inferior equilibrium – corresponding to our vicious circle – characterized by high levels of right-wing populism and a high proportion of low-skill workers among immigrants. In this framework, structural trends such as internet penetration, economic erosion of the middle class, demographic pressure from poor countries as well as adverse cyclical shocks make the good, efficient equilibrium less likely and the inferior equilibrium of explosive populism and deteriorated immigrants’ skill-ratio more likely.
Topic:
Immigration, Populism, Xenophobia, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Global Public Opinion and the Growth of Right-Wing Populism

Author:
Richard Wike
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The “super year” of elections in 2024 was unprecedented in voting history, with citizens in more than 60 countries going to the polls. While it was generally a difficult year for incumbents, it was a strong one for challengers, including several from the populist right. Leveraging economic frustrations, divisive cultural issues, and anger at a political class perceived to be out of touch with ordinary citizens, right-wing populist leaders and parties made gains at the ballot box in several nations, building on the growing success they have seen in recent years.1 One of the most high-profile results in 2024 was Republican Donald Trump’s defeat of Democrat Kamala Harris in the United States presidential election, which returned the leader of the populist “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement to the White House after four years of Demo- cratic control. Right-wing populists also gained ground in European parlia- mentary elections. Austria’s Freedom Party, for example, had its best election result ever. The Alternative for Germany Party became the first far-right political party to win a state election in the country since World War II. And even though the cordon sanitaire—a bargain among political parties to keep the far right out of governing coalitions—ultimately kept Marine Le Pen’s National Rally out of power in France, the party nonetheless increased the number of seats it holds in the National Assembly. Parties on the right did well outside Europe and the United States too. For example, El Salvador’s incumbent President Nayib Bukele won reelection with over 80 percent of the vote, buoyed by strong support for his crackdown on criminal gangs. In Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto won the presidential election amid public concerns about his human rights record. And—though forced to form a coalition government for the first time—Indian Prime Min- ister Narendra Modi won a third consecutive victory, and his Bharatiya Janata Party, which captured 240 of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, remains a dominant force in the country’s politics.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, Populism, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
India, Global Focus, and United States of America

17. Decoding India’s 2024 National Elections

Author:
Niranjan Sahoo
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
India’s 2024 national election is billed to be the biggest election in history. The mammoth exercise which involves the participation of 986 million voters and more than 600 political parties will last 44 days before the results are announced on June 4. It is also billed to be the most expensive elections in the world (Pradhan 2024), overtaking the United States elections. The noteworthy fact about this mega exercise is that nearly the entire process will be conducted through Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). A staggering 5.5 million EVMs will be used to conduct this mammoth exercise spanning over two months (Business Standard 2024-03-16). Further, the 2024 national elections will determine who gets to occupy the Lok Sabha or Lower House of the Parliament. The party or a coalition of parties that gets a majority in the LoK Sabha will get to nominate its Prime Minister and run the government for next five years.
Topic:
Elections, Populism, Domestic Politics, Welfare, Misinformation, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

18. Paying Off Populism: How Regional Policies Affect Voting Behavior

Author:
Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper shows that regional policies can decrease populist support. We focus on the “development objective” (Objective-1) of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), meant to support lagging-behind regions. For causal inference, we exploit three sources of quasi-exogenous variation in a Regression-Discontinuity-Design (RDD), a Difference-in- Differences framework (DiD), and with matching techniques. Using NUTS3-level panel data on the outcomes of elections to the EU parliament, observed over the period 1999-2019, we consistently find that Objective-1 transfers reduces the vote share of right-fringe parties by about 2.5 pp. Left-fringe party support is not affected. Complementary analyses of individual-level survey data from the Eurobarometer show that the European Regional Policy increases trust in democratic institutions and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:
Political Economy, European Union, Populism, Regional Integration, Currency, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

19. Paying Off Populism: EU-Regionalpolitik verringert Unterstützung populistischer Parteien

Author:
Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
How to break the populist wave? With the elections to the European Parliament ahead, and the Presidential Elections in the US looming, this question bothers policymakers in many Western democracies. Our study shows that regional policies effectively decrease populist support. Specifically, EU Regional Policy investing into the development of lagging-behind regions decreases the vote share obtained by right-fringe populist parties by 15–20 percent. Moreover, regional policy investments increase trust in democratic institutions, and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:
Political Economy, European Union, Populism, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

20. Between Tradition and Transformation: The Impact of Illiberal Populism on Georgia’s Democratic Aspirations

Author:
Giorgi Iakobishvili
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The article examines the role of Georgian far-right illiberal populist groups in Georgian politics and their influence on Georgia’s foreign policy and the ongoing democratization process, emphasizing Euroscepticism, liberal institutional development, and the pro-Russian narrative. Using qualitative research methodology, we analyzed the programs, manifestos, and public speeches of well-known groups active in Georgian politics, such as People's Power, Georgian March, Georgian Idea, Unity, Essence, Hope (ERI), and Alliance of Patriots of Georgia. Analysis of the mentioned material, as well as various scientific studies, shows that the discourse of these groups is dominated by xenophobic, nationalist, populist, and racist rhetoric, which represents a significant challenge to Georgia’s European integration path and in the direction of democratization of its governance system. In the long term, we concluded that the existence and development of these illiberal populist actors threaten Georgia’s aspirations for European integration and democratic development. This study contributes to a broader discourse about populism and illiberal views in the Georgian reality, focusing on the influence of these ideologies on the formation of the country’s foreign policy and orientation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democracy, Populism, Domestic Politics, Illiberalism, and Euroskepticism
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

21. Populist Neo-Nationalism: The Example of Austria

Author:
Maria Marczewska-Rytko
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This article aims to analyze the phenomenon of populist neo-nationalism in Austria and answer the following research questions: 1. How can populism and its type of populist neo-nationalism be characterized?; 2. What are the determinants of populist neonationalism in Austria? 3. What are the ways populist neo-nationalism has been utilized in Austria? The Chantal Mouffe thesis was verified, according to which the development of populism is a response to the shortcomings of liberal and deliberative democracies. The research process used a methodology typical of the social sciences, especially the political sciences. Since the 1980s, we have addressed the growing importance of radical right-wing populism in European politics. Some researchers refer to this phenomenon as new populism or populist neo-nationalism. The party’s growing importance since 1986 was related, among other things, to the principles of Euroscepticism it proclaimed and its demands to limit or even ban immigration. The FPÖ’s achieved the most tremendous success under the government of Jörg Haider. Its entry into the ruling coalition has confused international relations.
Topic:
Nationalism, Populism, and Neo-Nationalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

22. Teaching Difficult Histories: Key Principles For Democracy

Author:
Stuart Austin
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This project report details the discussions and findings of the Teaching History Programme of the Ratiu Forum from 2023 to 2024, sitting under the Central and South-East Europe Programme. The workshops and conferences engaged with History teachers of post-communist Europe to address the challenges of politicised History curricula and explore methods for teaching difficult and dark pasts – facilitating and improving cross-border understanding within the region. The report concludes with recommendations for teachers generated by the workshops, geared towards open and democratic societies to counter political extremism and autocratic populism, as well as considering the direction for future workshops.
Topic:
Democracy, Populism, History, Political Extremism, and Post-Communism
Political Geography:
Europe

23. Populist Dichotomy in Homogenous Societies: Internal and External Others in South Korean Politics

Author:
Nurcan Ceyhan
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
This study aims to analyze populism in the scope of South Korean politics. It addresses the contexts in which political actors adopt dichotomous populist discourses and the implications of populist mentality on the social fabric of country. Populism can be defined in three different dimensions as an exclusionary, divisive and marginalizing ideology, discourse politics and a mobilization strategy. It is typically built on others that take on various forms. In this framework, the recent reflections of populism in the case of South Korea are discussed through the dichotomies and constructed perceptions of the other. It seeks to shed light on how political actors in South Korea which is assumed to have a homogenous social structure, point out the internal and external others that constitute the essence of populist politics. While populism’s understanding of the other is relatively uniform in different contexts, in South Korea the reflections of populism are differentiated and concretely understood through a range of internal and external others. South Korea, which is considered as one of the successful democracies in East Asia, is also affected by populist wave. The reflections of populism in South Korea are not severe and can generally be expressed as soft populism. Moreover, it is predominantly effective on discourse politics and is not observed in the form of concrete policies.
Topic:
Populism, Domestic Politics, Discourse Analysis, and Others
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

24. Populism and Income Inequality: Is Income Inequality in Türkiye a Political Choice?

Author:
Dila Asfuroğlu
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The argument that national inequalities are political and thereby driven by political decisions implies that income distribution is not merely an economic phenomenon but also a political one. Hence, this study explores the impact of populist governance on income inequality in Türkiye. In doing so, this study addresses whether income inequality in Türkiye is a political choice, drawing on economic, social, and political data over the years 2008- 2022. According to the results of the quantitative analysis, the share of income for the working class has fallen, the income gap between the lowest and highest deciles of the working class has narrowed, and the potential for fiscal interventions to reduce income inequality is not realised. In return, the income inequality that existed in 2008 has persisted at the same magnitude over the years. In other words, even if income inequality is not an explicit political choice, the populist governance in Türkiye between 2008 and 2022 has chosen not to contribute to the solution to this prevailing inequality.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Income Inequality, and Populism
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

25. Senegal Redefines International Partnerships

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The new Senegalese authorities, who vowed radical reforms during the campaign, have begun a review of the state’s international relations. As part of this process, they plan, among other things, to renegotiate the fisheries agreement with the EU, expel French troops, and reform or leave the regional monetary union. Despite the revolutionary rhetoric, similar to that of the populist military regimes from the Sahel, the Senegalese approach to the economy and regional politics is rational and, in the long term, aligned with EU interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Partnerships, and Populism
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Senegal

26. The Potential Rise of Populism among the Indonesian Muslim Middle Class Post Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:
M. Hasan Syamsudin and Siti Malaiha Dewi
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The economic and political insecurity faced by Indonesia's Muslim middle class may create opportunities for the rise of populism in Indonesia. This study aims to examine the potential for populism supported by Indonesia's Muslim middle class in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. The critical political economy approach, specifically the class-based approach, has been used in this study. This article uses qualitative research methodology and draws on literary sources. The findings suggest the likely emergence of populist politics in Indonesia, triggered by the economic instability caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, which severely affected the Muslim middle class. This has been exacerbated by long-standing socio-economic insecurity caused by unfavorable labor policies. Furthermore, the emergence of Indonesian populist politics is reinforced by the political polarization of the last decade. The mobilization of the vulnerable Muslim middle class by a charismatic leader could fuel the potential rise of populist politics in Indonesia.
Topic:
Populism, COVID-19, Middle Class, Economic Security, and Muslims
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

27. Illiberal Populism as a Polarizing Factor of Regional Cooperation in Central Europe

Author:
Ladislav Cabada
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Central European identity and regionality are very traditional and deeply rooted discourses. Over the past 35 years, a number of regional cooperation formats have emerged, among which the Visegrad Group has acquired a special position. This weakly institutionalised and thematically selective regional organisation has nevertheless established itself in the last 15 years as one of the visible actors of socalled populist regionalism. The (partial) transformation of the V4 towards populist foreign policy, national conservatism and Euroscepticism is the subject of our analysis. Using the concepts of populist regionalism and illiberal populism, it focuses on the formation of a monolithic discourse of the V4 as a group opposed to the international liberal order and the "Brussels agenda" in terms of values and public policies. We also examine the negative implications of this populist appropriation of the V4 for the region's position within the EU.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Populism, Polarization, Russia-Ukraine War, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Central Europe

28. «We are not pro-Russian, but…». Comparing Communication of Czech ANO Movement and Slovak SMER-SD Regarding the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine.

Author:
Ondřej Filipec and Petra Měšťánková
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 represented a significant change in the geopolitical situation in Central and Eastern Europe, which was almost immediately reflected in the communication of political parties and their leaders. The main aim of this article is to analyse the communication of two populist parties: the Czech ANO movement of billionaire Andrej Babiš and the Slovak SMER-SD, mainly associated with its leader Robert Fico. Although both parties occupy important positions within the party systems of their respective countries and both are considered populist, they use different communication strategies and levels of pro-Russian orientation. The different communication strategies are analysed in the context of the electorate, inter-party relations, the coalition/opposition dichotomy and the personal influence of their leaders.
Topic:
War, Communications, Populism, Political Parties, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Slovakia, and Czechia

29. Populist opposition is threatening progress on climate change

Author:
Edoardo Campanella and Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Driven by the push to decarbonize the world and achieve net zero emissions by 2050, a new anti-elite revolt is in the making in developed economies: If mainstream parties ignore the losers of the green transition as they did with globalization, climate populism not only will slow the adoption of climate policies but could also shake Western democracies. Climate policies are a perfect target for populist rhetoric: They rely on expert knowledge, entail globalist thinking and action, and the counterfactual nature of their benefits—avoiding disasters that would otherwise happen—gives ample fodder for conspiracy theories. And their costs are unevenly shared, hitting those at the bottom of the income distribution significantly harder than those at the top. Climate populism is particularly a problem on the far right, where doubts about science and opposition to international cooperation are strongest. Policies need to deal with this rising political opposition. Given the depth of their grievances, and as it is often the case with populism, it is unlikely that voters antagonistic to climate policies will be persuaded by rational arguments. What will change their behavior are economic incentives. If green technologies are cheaper than fossil fuel ones, they will be adopted to save money rather than the planet. Thus the costs of the green transition need to be reduced through more open trade in the short run and more innovation in the long run. In addition, those who support climate policies need to be mobilized through more engaging political strategies, more emotional narratives, and more bottom-up policy approaches.
Topic:
Climate Change, Populism, Decarbonization, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. The False Concept of Populism and the Challenges facing the Left: A Conjunctural Analysis of Politics in the North Atlantic

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Over the past 15 years, the term populism has widely been used to refer to political forces that seem to challenge the neoliberal consensus, but do these forces truly represent a break from neoliberalism?
Topic:
Politics, Populism, Neoliberalism, and Leftist Politics
Political Geography:
North Atlantic

31. What Explains Support for Populism in Latin America?

Author:
Dinorah Azpuru
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:
In the 21st century, populism has resurfaced in Latin America, but it has also emerged as a political force in other developing countries, as well as in Eastern European countries and several advanced industrial democracies. The support for populism in Latin America offers a lens through which to understand this phenomenon globally.
Topic:
Democracy, Populism, Ideology, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America

32. Los retos de Honduras en materia de inseguridad. El dilema de Xiomara Castro ante el populismo punitivo y de la seguridad.

Author:
Javier Lozano Cobos
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La militarización y el combate como herramienta casi exclusiva contra la violencia y la inseguridad ha sido el paradigma de profundo calado en Honduras y la mayor parte de la región, lo que implica la solución a los problemas de inseguridad en clave de guerra. Este conflicto asimétrico entre los grupos criminales y los Estados se recrudeció a raíz de la Guerra contra las Drogas iniciada por el presidente mexicano Calderón, y no es sino la continuación de las diversas guerras contra ya ensayadas en Centroamérica bajo inspiración de los EEUU. Con la llegada al poder de la presidenta hondureña, Xiomara Castro, se advertía un cambio en relación a las políticas de seguridad que no se enfocaran exclusivamente en la mano dura, sino que abordara la reforma integral del Estado priorizando la lucha contra la corrupción y la impunidad, así como la mejora de la calidad de la democracia. Una ola de populismo punitivo recorre la región, pero la mejora en los niveles de inseguridad en Honduras no será sostenible mediante el uso exclusivo de la fuerza ni estados de excepción.
Topic:
Corruption, Human Rights, War on Drugs, Democracy, Geopolitics, Inequality, Populism, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Latin America, Honduras, and United States of America

33. Territorial Loss and Ethnopopulism

Author:
Perry Jess Carter and Grigore Pop-Eleches
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
This paper highlights the overlooked role of prior grievances stemming from historical territorial loss as a significant factor behind support for ethnopopulist parties. While not essential for the emergence of ethnopopulism, territorial loss uniquely aligns with the backward-looking victimization framing crucial to these parties’ electoral success. Utilizing cross-national experimental and observational data from original surveys conducted in 2020–2021 in Romania, Hungary, Germany, and Turkey, we establish territorial loss attitudes as a robust predictor of ethnopopulist party support. In addition to variations in national context, a trade-off emerges for governing populists, revealing that priming past losses attracts concerned voters but alienates those indifferent to territorial issues. Analyzing a quasi-natural experiment involving a new ethnopopulist party that emerged in Romania between waves, we conclude that loss attitudes are stable over time and temporally prior to support for populism.
Topic:
Politics, Territorial Disputes, Populism, and Territory
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Germany, Romania, and Hungary

34. Opiate of the Masses: Analysing Dynamics, Rhetoric, and Sociopolitical Consequences of Populism in Contemporary Politics of Pakistan

Author:
Muhammad Kamran Fiaz and Rafida Nawaz
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Populism is a political phenomenon that has gained significant attention in recent times due to its ability to appeal to the masses for common good and to bring about changes in established political systems. It has become a significant political force in many parts of the world, including Pakistan. Pakistan is a country that has experienced political instability and economic challenges since its inception. While populism has provided a platform for addressing the grievances of marginalized communities, it has also posed significant challenges to democratic governance and economic stability. Mixed method research approach is utilized in the study to examine the role of populism in the political history of Pakistan. To study political dynamics of Pakistan, the works of scholars such as Ernesto Laclau, Chantal Mouffe, Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe Schmitter are used in the research paper. To gather empirical data, a questionnaire has been employed as a research tool. This enables a deeper understanding of recent developments in populism within Pakistan. By examining the historical and social context of Pakistan and identifying the factors that have contributed to the rise of populist movements in the country, the research paper aims to analyze the developments of populism in Pakistan offering insights into its potential benefits and pitfalls. The findings of the study will have significant implications for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners in Pakistan and beyond.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

35. Security Paradigm in the Age of Mass Surveillance

Author:
Gulshan Majeed and Muhammad Naveed Sial
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
In this age of social media and technological advancement, people are more connected than ever. People are connected to each other, to their physician, grocery and clothing store. They are shopping online and sending personal and intimate messages. People are being tracked wherever they go simply from their phones. These are the foot prints which they are leaving. The foot prints through CCTV cameras, their social media and their internet searches. Spy agencies use these foot prints for profiling and to keep citizens safe from antisocial elements. There is a draw back of these measures as they cost citizens of their fundamental right of privacy and most importantly, the breach of trust. Analytical approach has been employed to identify the risks involved into mass surveillance and data breach of the citizens. Right activists believe that this data is at risk and it might go into the hands of terrorists, populist far-right or authoritarian governments who in turn might use this data to target political opponents. In this fast-changing environment, national security paradigm is shifting in these recent times.
Topic:
National Security, Cybersecurity, Social Media, Populism, Surveillance, Data, Civil Liberties, and Edward Snowden
Political Geography:
Global Focus

36. Drugs and State Vigilantism as a Strategy of Political Activity: The Example of Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia

Author:
Kornel Bielawski
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The problem of distribution and consumption of intoxicating substances is considered a socially harmful phenomenon and Southeast Asia is a region particularly affected by drugs. In the face of this challenge, the heads of many states undertake radical actions, going beyond the legal framework, referred to as state vigilantism. Based on the example of three selected political leaders (Thaksin Shinawatra, Rodrigo Duterte and Joko Widodo), the author points out how radical strategies for fighting the drug problem contribute to increasing popularity, even though the problem has not been resolved since the early 1970s. Cross-comparison analysis of the three mentioned cases aims at identifying sources of effectiveness and attractiveness of populist methods that have not changed significantly for fifty years. Among them the author argues that vigilantism grows out of populism and takes the form of a spectacle containing such elements as dehumanising discourse, extrajudicial killings and the theme of the nation’s morality at risk.
Topic:
Politics, Populism, Drugs, and Vigilantism
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

37. Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years

Author:
Frédéric Docquier, Lucas Guichard, Stefano Iandolo, Hillel Rapoport, Riccardo Turati, and Gonzague Vannoorenberghe
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We analyze the long-run evolution of populism and explore the role of globalization in shaping such evolution. We use an imbalanced panel of 628 national elections in 55 countries over 60 years. A rst novelty is our reliance on both standard (e.g., the "volume margin", or vote share of populist parties) and new (e.g., the "mean margin", a continuous vote-weighted average of populism scores of all parties) measures of the extent of populism. We show that levels of populism in the world have strongly fluctuated since the 1960s, peaking after each major economic crisis and reaching an all-time high – especially for right-wing populism in Europe – after the great recession of 2007-10. The second novelty is that when we investigate the "global" determinants of populism, we look at trade and immigration jointly and consider their size as well as their skill-structure. Using OLS, PPML and IV regressions, our results consistently suggest that populism responds to globalization shocks in a way which is closely linked to the skill structure of these shocks. Imports of low-skill labor intensive goods increase both total and right-wing populism at the volume and mean margins, and more so in times of de-industrialization and of internet expansion. Low-skill immigration, on the other hand, tends to induce a transfer of votes from left-wing to right-wing populist parties, apparently without aecting the total. Finally, imports of high-skill labor intensive goods, as well as high-skill immigration, tend to reduce the volume of populism.
Topic:
Globalization, Immigration, Elections, Populism, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

38. The Impact of Populist Executive on the Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America

Author:
Seungho Lee
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Populist forces have been resilient in Latin America and continue to cause instability and uncertainty across the region. Populist figures in the region first rose to prominence during the period of import substitution industrialization in the 1930s, capitalizing on the growing demands for mass politics and better social benefits from the rapidly expanding urban working class. Populism, which had been rampant in Latin America for more than 30 years since then, seemed to fade into obscurity with military regimes which have dominated regional politics in the 1960s and 1970s. However, after a series of democratic transitions, Latin American democracies witnessed yet another wave of populism. A notable number of candidates with a populist discourse have achieved victories in presidential elections in the 1980s and 1990s. With the wave of democratization and the accumulation of public dissatisfaction due to a series of economic crises, some so-called neopopulists took power in a number of Latin American countries. They attracted voters by combining neoliberal economic policies with the typical “us-versus-them” discourse, demonstrating that any economic ideology can be linked to populist ideas. The new millennium witnessed another tide of populist presidents across the region. While a rapid transition to neoliberal policies led to various socioeconomic problems, traditional parties and politicians could not respond effectively to the emerging problems. This time around, left-wing populist figures dominated the region’s political landscapes, combining populist ideas with so-called 21st-century socialism. While the era of radical left-wing populists came to an end, new breeds of populists appeared one after another and were elected to office in the 2010s. Not many expect that populist executives will cease to exist across the region in the near future. Social and economic inequality is worsening in the aftermath of COVID-19, and the public distrust of established party politics and existing democratic institutions is growing more than ever. All in all, there is fertile ground for populist forces to spread even more, who claim that they are the only ones who can eliminate the "incompetent and corrupt" establishment and truly represent the "virtuous" people. Against this backdrop, there is a growing need to improve our understanding of the characteristics of populist governments that have repeatedly emerged in the region. Among many channels through which populist rule influences Latin American countries, Lee et al. (2022) dedicate one of their chapters to analyzing the impact of populist rule on the inflow of foreign direct investment, a variable of much importance in Latin American economies.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Populism, and Instability
Political Geography:
Latin America

39. Regional Deprivation and Populism - Evidence from Germany and the U.S.

Author:
Michael Bayerlein
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
A widely held view is that increasing globalisation and inequality are fostering support for populist actors. Surprisingly, when focusing on Germany and the U.S., populist voting is highest in less globalised regions with rather equal income distributions. Addressing this puzzle, I ask how the regional variance in populist voting can be explained. In my answer, I introduce the concept of spatial inequality, which describes the regional inequality within countries, and construct a measure of public goods scarcity. I argue that the spatial inequality induced feeling of being left behind is positively correlated with populist voting and that this effect is mitigated by public goods provision. Using county level data to develop spatial inequality and public good scarcity indices, I can provide empirical support for these arguments. The findings have important implications for understanding the sub-national variance in populist voting and the role of relative economic deprivation as well as public goods provision.
Topic:
Globalization, Inequality, Populism, Voting, Regional Economy, and Public Goods
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

40. One world, many knowledges: Epistemological pluralism and African scholarship (Full Issue)

Author:
Moliehi Ramonate, Nnaemeka Ohamadike, Helen Acton, Malvern Kudakwashe Marewo, Senzo Ncube, Nene-Lomotey Kuditchar, Ross Harvey, Terence Corrigan, Kendra Connock, Jordan McLean, and Laura Rubidge
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Africa Governance Papers (TAGP)
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
This issue reflects something of the journal’s multi- and interdisciplinary ambitions, with articles employing a range of research methodologies and looking at very different topics in Lesotho, Zimbabwe and South Africa, as well as broader-ranging issues in West Africa and the continent.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Research, Populism, Maritime, Accountability, Innovation, Oversight, Pluralism, Epistemology, and Traditional Leaders
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

41. Understanding and Responding to Global Democratic Backsliding

Author:
Thomas Carothers and Benjamin Press
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, democratic backsliding has become a defining trend in global politics. However, despite the extensive attention paid to the phenomenon, there is surprisingly little consensus about what is driving it. The most common explanations offered by analysts—ranging from the role of Russia and China and disruptive technologies to the rise of populism, the spread of political polarization, and democracies’ failure to deliver—fall short when tested across a wide range of cases. A more persuasive account of backsliding focuses on the central role of leader-driven antidemocratic political projects and the variety of mechanisms and motivations they entail. This paper identifies and analyzes three distinct types of backsliding efforts: grievance-fueled illiberalism, opportunistic authoritarianism, and entrenched-interest revanchism. In cases of grievance-fueled illiberalism, a political figure mobilizes a grievance, claims that the grievance is being perpetuated by the existing political system, and argues that it is necessary to dismantle democratic norms and institutions to redress the underlying wrongs. Opportunistic authoritarians, by contrast, come to power via conventional political appeals but later turn against democracy for the sake of personal political survival. In still other backsliding cases, entrenched interest groups—generally the military—that were displaced by a democratic transition use undemocratic means to reassert their claims to power. Although motivations and methods differ across backsliding efforts, a key commonality among them is their relentless focus on undermining countervailing governmental and nongovernmental institutions that are designed to keep them in check. As international democracy supporters continue to refine their strategies of responding to democratic backsliding, they must better differentiate between facilitating factors and core drivers. Such an approach will point to the need for a stronger focus on the nature of leader-driven antidemocratic projects, identifying ways to create significant disincentives for backsliding leaders, and bolstering crucial countervailing institutions. Moreover, they should deepen their differentiation of strategies to take account of the diverse motivations and methods among the three main patterns of backsliding. Only in this way will they build the needed analytic and practical capacity to meet the formidable challenge that democratic backsliding presents.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Populism, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. A New Populist President: William Ruto’s victory and Kenya’s future

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Across Kenya, anticipating supporters of outgoing government candidate Raila Odinga had anxiously been listening in on radios or staring at television screens, waiting for the country’s presidential elections results. Their favourite candidate had lost the elections. At Nairobi’s national election centre, Chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), Wafula Chebukati, had announced Ruto’s narrow win but fled the building quickly after. Chaos ensued: police forces stormed the hall as Odinga supporters punched through to the stage. Chairman Chebukati left the centre under police protection, national music blaring through the speakers. The country seems to be on the verge of another wave of violent unrests.
Topic:
Populism, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

43. How do Economies in EU-CEE Cope with Labour Shortages?

Author:
Vasily Astrov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Hermine Vidovic, and Zuzana Zavarská
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe (EU-CEE) have been experiencing increasing labour shortages, which only briefly subsided in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ongoing demographic decline suggests that labour shortages will only get stronger over time. As a result, the bargaining power of labour has increased, wages have been generally rising ahead of labour productivity, and industrial action (strikes) – the level of which has remained low in recent decades – has emerged in some instances. In the face of labour and skill shortages, people have been investing in education. The share of employees with tertiary education has increased, and vocational training has gained in importance, although active labour market policies have been used only selectively. Employers have increasingly been investing in fixed assets, especially in manufacturing, and the degree of robotisation has risen strongly. Despite domestic concerns that automation would generate massive job losses, our findings suggest that capital deepening has taken place faster where labour was in higher demand. Thus, labour was not substituted with capital, but rather the complementary effect prevailed. Employment actually increased in EU-CEE over the past two decades – despite the shrinking working-age population. Employers could hire not only the formerly unemployed, but also the formerly inactive, and used the relaxed immigration policies to attract foreign workers, especially from Ukraine and the Western Balkans. Czechia, Hungary, Slovenia and Slovakia and most recently Poland have become net receivers of migrants, while in Bulgaria immigration largely compensates for the natives who go abroad. However, immigration from non-European countries as a general solution to the problem of labour shortages in the region is highly problematic in the current domestic political context. Overall, both our findings for the EU-CEE region over recent years and the experience of Western Europe during the ‘golden age’ (1950-1973) suggest that labour shortages are not in themselves an obstacle to rapid structural change and income growth. However, for such an economic model to be sustainable, more active government policies will be needed, such as greater public investment in education and training, higher minimum wages in order to encourage automation, and more extensive welfare networks in order to deal with the possible negative short-run side-effects of automation.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, Populism, Vocational Training, Investment, Labor Market, Trade Unions, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

44. Who are the populists and how to respond to them: Evidence from mainstream European Parliament parties

Author:
Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The main research questions of this paper are how mainstream European Parliament parties conceptualize populism, and how they respond to the rise of populism. The paper, which has come out of the Horizon 2020 project “Demos”, is based on semi-structured interviews with top officials of non-populist parties in the European Parliament (“Europarties”), such as the ALDE, EPP, the Party of European Socialists and the European Greens. The research technique of the paper is thematic analysis, performed on the responses obtained from the aforementioned interviews. Europarty officials identified populist parties by associating them with core themes such as anti-migration, Euroscepticism, and the tendency to make undeliverable policy promises. As for the effectiveness of anti-populist strategies, the interviewees converged on the idea that the problems posed by populists cannot be ignored and that clear and concrete policy solutions are what mainstream parties need, if they are to defend themselves against the evasive political discourse of populist parties. Non-populist parties in the European Parliament may use three strategies to prevent the rise of populists, namely clashing with, marginalizing, or co-opting the populists. Non-populist parties may prefer to incorporate selected questions raised by the populists into their political agendas, and provide non-populist replies to them. Mainstream parties seem aware that while populists may not win arguments over concrete policy measures, they might win voters’ hearts.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Populism, Domestic Politics, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe

45. Duterte’s pandemic populism: Strongman leadership, weak state capacity, and the politics of deployment in the Philippines

Author:
Julio C. Teehankee
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic undermined the populist legacy of Philippine president Rodrigo R. Duterte. Despite implementing one of the longest and strictest lockdowns globally, the country has struggled with controlling the pandemic. While Duterte looks to have triumphed in his attack on human rights and press freedom, his government’s record in combating the virus has been spotty at best. Yet Duterte’s populism has proven to be resilient. He has remained extremely popular, with a September 2021 national survey reporting 81 per cent approval of his government’s response to the pandemic and 91 per cent of respondents expressing trust in his leadership. The irony of Duterte’s populist resilience amid his poor pandemic response serves to highlight his mastery of political deployment within a weak state. Two significant inputs are required to deploy state capacity into a range of outcomes: political coalitions (including leadership, classes, and parties) and a balance of social forces. The ‘politics of deployment’ depends on the quality of decision-making of state leadership and the political coalitions forged to support such decision-making. Decisions, in turn, depend on the balance of social forces—the resistance or support of various sectors in society. This paper will unpack Duterte’s deployment of ‘brute force governance’ (which he earlier employed in his bloody ‘war on drugs’) in addressing the COVID19 crisis in the Philippines.
Topic:
Populism, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Rodrigo Duterte
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

46. The Crisis of Civilization Paradigm: Co-Radicalization of Islamist and Populist Groups in Europe

Author:
Ayhan Kaya
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Europe is facing several problems, some of which revolve around the issues of migration and integration of third-country nationals. Civilizational and culturalist paradigms seem to have poisoned how many European citizens have perceived Muslim-origin people. In this short intervention, Islamophobism, populism, nativism, Islamism, radicalization, extremism, violence, and terrorism are among the issues to be discussed, deliberated, and communicated. This intervention attempts to elaborate the destructive nature of the civilizational paradigm in Europe, leading to the co-radicalization of Islamist and right-wing populist groups.
Topic:
Radicalization, Populism, Discrimination, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Europe

47. The Pandemic Exposes and Exacerbates Existing Problems of Inequality and Polarization

Author:
Joshua Kurlantzick
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
During the COVID-19 pandemic, while some democracies (such as Canada and Australia) have been able to respond effectively, the five large democracies of the United States, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines have suffered severe effects on public health. In this commentary, Joshua Kurlantzick, a Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains how social and economic inequalities in these countries are the cause of their ineffective responses to the pandemic. He then points out how populist politicians in these countries have exacerbated inequality during the pandemic with their rhetoric and policy. The author then argues that despite political, economic, and social problems in these countries, leaders have an opportunity to alleviate inequality through major democratizing reforms, as there is a public sentiment of wanting to work together to overcome the pandemic.
Topic:
Democracy, Inequality, Populism, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Indonesia, India, Brazil, Philippines, and United Nations

48. Sri Lanka’s Arab Spring Moment: Can Asia’s Oldest Democracy Weather the Crisis?

Author:
Niranjan Sahoo
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Sri Lanka, Asia`s oldest democracy, faces political and economic crisis, and protests continue on the streets day after day. Niranjan Sashoo, a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, discusses the deeper structural factors and historical background behind the political and economic crisis in this issue briefing. Dr. Sahoo states that it`s hard to predict where Sri Lanka`s future democracy will go, but the long-running rule of the Rajapaksa family is likely to end as protests continue to demand the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He argues that the resignation of the pro-China Rajapaksa family is an opportunity for Sri Lanka to move away from China`s influence and deepen ties with major democracies in Asia and the West.
Topic:
Corruption, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

49. Authoritarian Populism as a Response to Crisis: The Case of Brazil

Author:
Esra Akgemci
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article demonstrates that the authoritarian populist strategy is most appealing when leaders create a sense of crisis and present themselves as having the only solution. The article underlines three performative methods of how Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil offered simple answers for a crisis and portrayed other political actors as the responsible ones to be removed. Firstly, nativism presents a conservative view on how politics should be structured by perceiving all “non-natives” as threatening. Secondly, messianism, the fetishism of Bolsonaro as a “messiah” who leads the way in the battle between “good” and “evil,” serves to reinforce the support of the Evangelist base against “PT members.” Finally, conspiracism provides an easy way to eradicate ambiguities and helps to fuel an antagonism against the “enemy.”
Topic:
Security, Authoritarianism, Populism, Nativism, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

50. The ghost people and populism from above: The Kais Saied case

Author:
Malek Lakhal
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Since Kais Saied dismissed Hichem Mechichi’s government in July 2021, several political concepts emerged to interpret what happened in Tunisia, either to legitimize or denounce Saied’s measures. This article examines Saied’s brand of populism and looks at how his failure to mobilize the people he claims to represent is slowly sinking Tunisia into authoritarianism.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Populism, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia