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201. Countering United Front Work: Taiwan’s Political Warfare System

Author:
Mariah Thornton
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This strategic update introduces the challenges posed by China’s united front work, which has significantly expanded due to unprecedented institutional elevation and support under Xi Jinping. Mariah argues that Taiwan—a country that has effectively resisted China’s united front activities for several decades—can serve as an instructive case for other democratic countries in institutionalising counter-interference operations. The briefing initially explores the origins of Taiwan’s political warfare system, its evolution from the martial law era to democratisation in the 1990s, and how this history informs the institution’s modern structure and operations. The information presented in this report was compiled during a period of fieldwork in Taiwan from late September to early November 2022, in which she interviewed dozens of political warfare officers as well as Taiwanese defence and security experts–a majority of whom have chosen to remain anonymous. In the conclusion, Mariah offers broad policy recommendations based on these findings that may be applicable to other countries experiencing united front work activities and or seeking to institutionalise counter-interference operations.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Propaganda, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

202. Family Rule in Iraq and the Challenge to State and Democracy

Author:
Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
After the fall of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship in 2003, Iraqi political parties proliferated in a show of enthusiasm for the country’s emerging democracy. In recent years, however, a handful of personalities and families have consumed all of the country’s political oxygen, dashing hopes for a truly pluralistic ecosystem. Especially discouraging has been the authoritarian shift in Kurdistan, once viewed as a democratic beacon in the Middle East. At the federal level, feuding between the Sadr and Maliki camps now dominates Shia politics, and Mohammed al-Halbousi has crowded out other Sunni players. Meanwhile, corruption touches every surface, and the rare official who holds to ethical standards risks being rendered entirely ineffectual. In this wide-ranging Policy Note, experts Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab outline the dispiriting state of Iraqi politics and how the United States can respond. To achieve the scaled-down goals of maintaining sovereignty and accountability, they argue, American officials must be creative, working with Iraqi institutional actors while simultaneously engaging with less central figures such as apolitical military commanders and the business community.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Democracy, State, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

203. The Palestinian Authority Thirty Years After Oslo

Author:
Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Palestinians and Israelis mark the thirtieth anniversary of the Oslo Accords, it is worth pausing to examine what remains of the original promise contained in the agreement (hint: something does remain). More than that, it is worth examining whether those remnants can survive the many challenges facing the Palestinian Authority, especially those likely to emerge “the day after” President Mahmoud Abbas exits the stage.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Democracy, Palestinian Authority, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

204. Cash Cabal: How Hezbollah Profits from Lebanon's Financial Crisis

Author:
Samara Azzi and Hanin Ghaddar
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In March 2020, Lebanon opted for a “hard default” on $32 billion in sovereign debt, allowing the government to avoid negotiating with its Eurobond holders and investors. Beirut thereafter showed little interest in addressing the consequences of default, and the country’s economic meltdown worsened. As usual, the Lebanese people were the casualties, suffering amid what the World Bank has called a “deliberate depression.” This official negligence has cleared the way for a proliferating cash economy—which in turn has spawned a currency exchange scheme involving the central bank, foreign exchange agents, and Lebanese politicians. Hezbollah specifically has profited in areas ranging from real estate to solar energy, pharmaceuticals, and the illicit Captagon trade. In this Policy Note, authors Samara Azzi and Hanin Ghaddar—a venture capitalist and a former Lebanese journalist—skillfully diagram the corrupt status quo and explain why entrenched actors want to avoid systemic change. But as the study makes clear, the future health of the Lebanese economy requires an overhaul, and the international community must now press for deep reforms and personal accountability.
Topic:
Politics, Non State Actors, Financial Crisis, Economy, Hezbollah, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

205. Turkey's Pivotal 2023 Elections: Issues, Potential Outcomes, and What Comes After

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 14, Turkey’s citizens will cast their ballots for president and parliament, and polls suggest the longtime incumbent could actually lose this time. President Erdogan’s challenger, Republican People’s Party head Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has assembled an ideologically diverse coalition united in its determination to oust the ruling bloc. Guiding the opposition, known popularly as the “Table of Six,” is a message focused on restoring competence amid sky-high inflation and a faltering response to the devastating February earthquakes. But Erdogan’s challengers still face headwinds created in part by his near-complete control of the media. In this Policy Note compilation, Turkey expert Soner Cagaptay and his fellow contributors concur that Erdogan will use polarizing tactics to keep power, whatever the results of the May 14 balloting or a possible May 28 presidential runoff. They also assess how various wild card developments—including the entry of spoiler candidate Muharrem Ince and meddling from Russia­—could aid the Turkish leader in unforeseen ways.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Strategic Competition, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

206. Sultan’s Landmark Speech to the Majlis Oman: A Window into Oman’s Economic Reforms

Author:
Jonathan Campbell-James
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As he approaches the third anniversary of his ascension to the throne in Oman, on November 14 Sultan Haitham addressed the opening of the 8th session of the Majlis Oman, a parliament that combines both the appointed Majlis ad-Dawla and the wholly elected Majlis al-Shura. This was the first occasion at which Sultan Haitham had made such a speech since assuming the throne, a formal stock-take of the progress he has made in implementing his vision for Oman. Unlike, for example, the King’s speech to the combined U.K. Houses of Parliament, where the government of the day writes the speech which the King merely reads, on this occasion the Sultan owned this speech himself[1]. It outlined both what as sovereign he had set out to achieve, and what as prime minister he had delivered. On display when he gave his speech, Haitham’s presentation is calm and understated, authoritative but less effervescent and more managerial than the style of his predecessor Sultan Qaboos. But nonetheless, he sketched out remarkable progress achieved over the last three years.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Oman and Gulf Nations

207. Why China Is Taking Sides Against Israel—and Why It Will Likely Backfire

Author:
Michael Singh
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
When news broke of the Hamas attack on Israel last month, the silence from Beijing was conspicuous amid the din of international statements. When the government finally addressed the conflict at a press conference the day after, its words were remarkable for being unremarkable. An unnamed Foreign Ministry spokesperson expressed “deep concern,” called on “relevant parties to remain calm, exercise restraint, and immediately end the hostilities,” and lamented the “protracted standstill of the peace process”—a diplomatic endeavor in which Beijing has never shown more than a passing interest. The wording was nearly identical to China’s reactions during past Gaza conflicts, despite the fact that the circumstances were radically different. Because the brief remarks failed to condemn Hamas or even recognize the scale of the horrors that occurred on October 7, Israeli commentators interpreted them not as neutral, but as hostile. Beijing soon confirmed that interpretation. On October 14, Foreign Minister Wang Yi asserted that Israel’s actions went “beyond the scope of self-defense” and demanded that it stop imposing “group punishment” on Palestinians, while still refusing to condemn Hamas. (For a full listing of Beijing’s official statements on the conflict, see The Washington Institute’s statement tracker.) Chinese media have likewise presented the war as one of Israeli aggression—despite being heavily censored, their early reports were rife with anti-Semitic, anti-Israel commentary claiming that Hamas was defending the two-state solution, even though the group’s past and present actions are patently bent on destroying the Israeli state. Notably, the strident tone in online Chinese commentary moderated in the run-up to President Xi Jinping’s November 15 meeting with President Biden, underscoring the government’s well-established influence over such messaging. This approach is a stark departure from Beijing’s past impassivity toward Middle East conflicts, in which Chinese officials had usually sought to avoid entanglement. Rather, it reflects the government’s new inclination to use far-flung conflicts as opportunities to undermine the United States and score points in the “Global South.” Yet it could also hold longer-term consequences for China, particularly regarding the government’s three-decade effort to improve relations with Israel. In addition, using the current crisis to take potshots at Washington may constrain Beijing’s ability to project impartiality in other regional conflicts.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Strategic Competition, and Palestinians
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Gaza

208. Making Sense of Iraq’s Politicized Supreme Court Rulings

Author:
Selin Uysal
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 14, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court (FSC) made waves by ruling on a complaint against Speaker of Parliament Mohammed al-Halbousi, ultimately deciding to revoke his membership in the legislature. In the absence of any appeal mechanism, Halbousi will have to step down from the speakership he has held since 2018—a development that will have ripple effects on the provincial elections scheduled for December 18.
Topic:
Politics, Supreme Court, and Judiciary
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

209. Can Federalism Work in Lebanon?

Author:
Robert Rabil
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Lebanon’s economic and socio-political conditions have spiraled downward since the rise and fractionalization of the 2019 popular protests—known as the October 17 Revolution—various proposals have emerged as to how to remedy the bankrupt and virtually failed state. All agree that the current outlook is grim; today, the Lebanese currency has lost almost all its value and the presidential seat is contested and remains vacant. Political elites are at loggerheads and blamed for robbing the state, society is polarized across intra- and inter-confessional lines, and poverty has reached a popular level not seen since the Great Famine of World War I. Among the proposed suggestions is the federal option, put as an alternative to the country’s confessional system. Such ideas are not new; in fact, the federal option had been championed and the subject of debate among mainly Christian politicians and parties prior to and during Lebanon’s civil war (1975-1990). President Camille Chamoun (1952-1958) offered a detailed plan for a federal Lebanon; the Lebanese Front, representing mainly Maronite aspirations, likewise presented a federal project during the Lebanon National Dialogue in Lausanne in 1984; and president-elect Bashir Gemayel, assassinated in 1982, toyed with the idea of federalism. However, Lebanon’s civil war ended when the antagonistic parties signed the Document of National Reconciliation of 1989, also known as the Taif Agreement, which introduced administrative decentralization instead of federalism. And while the agreement ended the civil war, it subsequently ushered in an era of Lebanese politics marked by the Syrian occupation of Beirut until 2005 and the rise of the Islamist Shia party Hezbollah, effectively building a state within a state and commanding a militia more or less better equipped than the Lebanese Armed Forces. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s political elites entered into a Faustian pact with Hezbollah under which they legitimized the ‘Party of God’ in exchange for turning a blind eye to their theft of the state. It is this bargain that has brought Lebanon to its almost total collapse as a state and a nation.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Reform, Shia, and Federalism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

210. Hakan Fidan and the New Turkish Diplomacy in Iraq

Author:
Firas Elias
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s victory in the Turkish general elections in May 2023, Turkish foreign policy in Iraq has the potential to evolve in a different direction under the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan. Though the management of Turkey’s affairs in Iraq has shifted between various Turkish institutions since 2003, President Erdoğan has consolidated decision-making into his own hands since 2017, and his recent appointment of Fidan—a former intelligence director and loyal ally of Erdoğan—signals a continuation of this process, especially vis-a-vis Iraq. As Director of National Intelligence, Fidan oversaw the most sensitive backchannels with various regional and international actors, and he played a leading role in formulating Turkish intelligence and security policy. Notably, Fidan also led Turkey's reconciliation efforts with a variety of adversaries, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He has also been intimately involved in Turkish efforts to combat the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), targeting many PKK leaders and allied factions in northern Iraq, particularly in Sinjar, Makhmur, and al-Kuwayr. In this regard, Fidan comes equipped with deep connections to Iraq’s bureaucratic circles, having already succeeded in building bridges between various Iraqi actors and institutions. In particular, Fidan has developed close ties with both Sunni and Kurdish political leaders and has good relations with Falih al-Fayyadh, chairman of the Popular Mobilization Forces, whom he met during one of his secret trips to Iraq in September 2022. Fidan notably conducted such bridge-building efforts during the formation of the current Iraqi government led by Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Given this background in Iraqi politics along with his experience in intelligence, Fidan is an important player through which Erdoğan can rethink Turkish involvement in Iraq on a number of different issues. Though Fidan’s appointment certainly indicates a shift toward more security-focused policies for Turkey, the new minister will also have to balance Turkey’s political ties, economic and energy interests, environmental concerns, and military operations in Iraq. Indeed, Erdoğan likely hopes that Fidan can both diversify Turkey’s relationship networks in Iraq and reestablish normalized energy negotiations with key partners while also curbing the threat of the PKK and Iranian-aligned militias operating in Turkey’s areas of involvement in Iraq.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, and Energy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

211. Sinjar: Challenges and Resilience Nine Years after Genocide

Author:
Izat Noah
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Nearly a decade later, many victims are still missing, and thousands now live in displacement camps in unstable, unsanitary conditions. This anniversary is an opportunity to reflect on the ongoing armed conflict in the Sinjar region and the profound influence on its inhabitants. It also serves as an opportunity to appreciate the resilience of the Yazidis, looking toward a future with new hope and new aspirations—a future where Yazidis can experience peace, stability, justice, and equitable opportunities to reconstruct their lives and their communities. Yazidi resilience is clearly evident in how they bore the burden of this genocide, how they have persevered in the face of ongoing persecution and genocide for centuries, and how they have been steadfast in maintaining their identity and heritage despite these adversities and the repeated campaigns to tarnish their image. Yet Yazidis still face significant challenges in Iraq today. Despite relative stability in the Sinjar region, there are concerns among the Yazidi population about the return of armed conflict between groups vying for influence. Even more troubling, the issue of expulsion and displacement remains unresolved despite the liberation of Sinjar from ISIS in 2015. Many Yazidis still live in displacement camps, where they are without their homes, their land, or their basic rights. These refugees have yet to be materially compensated for their losses.
Topic:
Genocide, Politics, Terrorism, and Yazidis
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Sinjar

212. How to Stop Iraqi Kurdistan’s “Bleeding”

Author:
Bilal Wahab
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In a recent letter to President Biden that was soon reinforced by three U.S. lawmakers, Prime Minister Masrour Barzani of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government expressed his alarm over the region’s survival. Noting that the KRG is “bleeding economically and hemorrhaging politically,” he laid the blame on Baghdad’s “dishonorable campaign” against Erbil. Barzani has a point—federal authorities have indeed been undoing the KRG’s hard-won autonomy in the years since the Islamic State fell and the Kurds launched an unsuccessful independence bid. Most notably, Baghdad has recentralized policymaking in the capital and blocked Kurdish oil exports amid a decade-old dispute over energy management. Yet Barzani’s narrative does not tell the whole story. The United States has long supported Iraqi Kurdistan’s autonomy, security, and development, fostering greater stability and pro-American sentiment. At the same time, however, Washington has overlooked the KRG’s vulnerabilities—namely, the internal divisions, corruption, and democratic backsliding that have diminished Erbil’s reliability and brought on the current existential crisis. The United States has a strategic interest in continuing to promote a stable and prosperous KRG, but it cannot do so without addressing the region’s internal problems.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Autonomy, and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

213. Climate Change in Egypt: Opportunities and Obstacles

Author:
Amr Hamzawy, Mohammad Al-Mailam, and Joy Arkeh
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Because of climate change, Egypt’s already arid climate will suffer from additional environmental stresses, including extreme temperatures, irregular precipitation, elevated sea levels and land subsidence, coastal flooding, shoreline erosion, deteriorating soil salinity, and persistent drought. These mutually reinforcing impacts will build on one another, worsening water scarcity, hindering food security, displacing exposed populations, and destabilizing the Egyptian economy. Climate change will therefore exert added pressures on already precarious populations and push still other groups to unprecedented levels of vulnerability. Efforts to adapt to a changing climate will also exact a steep price, exposing existing governance shortfalls and deepening deficits. As climate change escalates burdens on state capacity, it will become even more urgent for the country to take proactive measures. Egypt needs, therefore, to accelerate its climate governance efforts if it hopes to stabilize its economy and protect its vulnerable populations. Before evaluating the socioeconomic and political consequences of climate change, it is necessary to outline Egypt’s preexisting environmental challenges. This overview will establish a baseline for understanding the compounding impact of climate change, with a view to how climate change deepens existing vulnerabilities, aggravates governance challenges, and requires new public policy designs to address it.
Topic:
Climate Change, Politics, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

214. Arab Peace Initiative II: How Arab Leadership Could Design a Peace Plan in Israel and Palestine

Author:
Amr Hamzawy and Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Past peace processes in Israel and Palestine failed to offer long-term solutions to the conflict, but they showed what makes negotiations work. In the latest round of hostilities in Gaza, key Arab governments are uniquely positioned to leverage relationships with all parties to lay out the conditions that could broker a lasting peace. An Arab Peace Initiative II, with multilateral oversight, would have to offer real benefits for all parties. But for any lasting framework to take hold, these important conditions need to be met. Palestinian and Jewish national identities should be recognized as legitimate and in need of institutional expression. Individual human rights in both communities need to be protected. Antisemitic, Islamophobic, and racist rhetoric and actions must be explicitly and unconditionally repudiated by all actors. Any targeting of civilians should not be merely rejected but actively combated by all actors. Settlement activities in the Palestinian territories and forced displacement of Palestinians to Egypt, Jordan, or anywhere else should be considered outlawed actions that all actors commit to fight against. Full diplomatic, political, and economic relations among participating states should be an outcome of the negotiation process. No stateless people should be left behind at the conclusion of any set of agreements.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Reform, and Occupation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and Egypt

215. Northwestern Syria in the Time of Cholera, Earthquakes, and Environmental Degradation

Author:
Marwa Daoudy, Muzna Dureid, and Ethan Mayer-Rich
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The February 6, 2023, earthquake originating near Gaziantep, Turkey displaced thousands of people throughout Syria’s northwest. At the same time, Syrians have had to contend with a host of other challenges, including acute poverty, water insecurity, wildfires, and disease, all of which the earthquake exacerbated. As a delicate political landscape makes delivering life-saving aid in the northwest increasingly difficult, the future of Syria’s internally displaced hangs in the balance.
Topic:
Environment, Health, Politics, Natural Disasters, Reform, Humanitarian Crisis, Earthquake, and Cholera
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Levant

216. Introducing the Research Project “Sacred Narrative – The Political Dimension of Japanese Mythology"

Author:
Klaus Antoni, Julia Dolkovski, and Louise Neubronner
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The Kojiki and Nihon shoki have been integral to the formation of Japanese identity, especially since the 18th century. As such, they were constantly exposed to processes of sacralization and desacralization, i.e., the attribution and removal of authority. The research project “Sacred Narrative – The Political Dimension of Japanese Mythology” is concerned with how certain systems of thought or ideology used these texts in a way that raised them to an elevated position or deprived them of it. Organized in three focus areas, the project delves into the topic of the historical change the Kojiki and Nihon shoki underwent in terms of interpretation and instrumentalization from the Edo period up to modern-day Japan. These investigations are integrated into the research group “De/Sacralization of Texts” at the University of Tübingen that started its work in January 2022. In this interdisciplinary context, “Sacred narrative” seeks to promote the integration of East-Asian textuality into general theory formation.
Topic:
Politics, Culture, Identity, and Mythology
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

217. Kenya: Competition Over Politics and Resources Affect Recent County Border Disputes

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
From 16 September to 10 November, ACLED records 185 political violence events and nearly 120 reported fatalities in Kenya. Most events took place in Nairobi county, where at least nine incidents of mob violence and almost 40 peaceful protests were recorded. Garissa and Samburu had the highest number of reported fatalities, with 22 and 15 recorded each, respectively. The fatalities in Garissa were attributed to suspected al-Shabaab militants, while in Samburu, the deaths were linked to attacks by pastoral militias. The most common event type was protests, with approximately 200 recorded events, followed by riots, at just over 100. The protests focused on various issues, including support for Palestine in response to the conflict in the Gaza Strip. Pro-Palestine protests were held in major towns and cities like Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu.
Topic:
Political Violence, Politics, Territorial Disputes, Borders, and Resources
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Horn of Africa

218. Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour

Author:
Richard Upward and Peter Wright
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its impact on individual political outcomes for up to 10 years after the event. The availability of detailed information on households before and after the job loss event allows us to reweight a comparison group to closely mimic the job losers in terms of their observable characteristics, pre-existing political support and voting behaviour. We find consistent, long-lasting but quantitatively small effects on support and votes for the incumbent party, and short-lived effects on political engagement. We find limited impact on the support for fringe or populist parties. In the context of Brexit, opposition to the EU was much higher amongst those who lost their jobs, but this was largely due to pre-existing differences which were not exacerbated by the job loss event itself.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, European Union, Brexit, Income, and Voting Behavior
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

219. Red herrings: A theory of bad politicians hijacking media attention

Author:
Margot Belguise
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Politicians are sometimes accused of sending “red herrings”, irrelevant information meant to distract their audience from other information. When do they succeed in fooling voters? How is this affected by the media? This paper proposes a model of election with red herring. An incumbent running for re-election may send an irrelevant ”tale” to distract voters from a scandal. Some politicians may simply enjoy telling irrelevant tales, making it difficult for voters to recognize red herrings. Red herrings can thus be ”successful” in that the incumbent is re-elected despite the scandal. Equilibrium characterization sheds light on two non-trivial results. First, the game sometimes has multiple equilibria: society may coordinate on equilibria with no or some successful red herring through a self-fulfilling social norm of tale-telling. However, high media attention to tales may discipline scandal-free politicians due to voter suspicion of tales, leaving a unique equilibrium with no successful red herring. A dynamic extension introduces feedbacks between the pool of politicians and media attention. Polar cases in which red herring is predicted to increase over time or on the contrary disappear are highlighted. A second extension shows that voter polarization is predicted to have ambiguous effects on politician discipline and thereby on screening.
Topic:
Politics, Media, Voting, and Scandals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

220. Panic politics on the US West Coast

Author:
Nicolas Berman, Björn Brey, and Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This study shows that military attacks —through fear and panic— can distort political behavior and create a “conservative shift” in subsequent elections. Using the distance to the Ellwood bombardment in 1942, a shelling of civilian installations on the US mainland during WW2 which caused minimal damage but that created a large wave of panic, we find that support for Republican candidates increased in subsequent Gubernatorial, Presidential and House elections in Californian counties in the vicinity of the incident. Interestingly, the effect appears to persist for a long time, even after WW2 ended. Using a large corpus of articles from Californian newspapers and text analysis, we provide evidence that the event led to a persistent shift in conservative beliefs of local communities. We conclude that attacks, through their psychological effects, might have long-run consequences through preference-shifting and changes in voting behaviors.
Topic:
Politics, History, Conservatism, Psychology, World War II, and Voting Behavior
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

221. Impact of depenalization on drugs deaths in England and Wales. An instrumental variable approach

Author:
Alessandra Foresta and Andrew Pickering
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This article investigates the role of drug depenalization on drug related deaths in England and Wales. We use an instrumental variable approach, based on Police and Crime Commissioners elections and voters left-wing preferences corresponds a decrease in drug-related arrests. The IV results indicate that a decrease in our instrumented variables generates an increase in deaths related to drug poisoning/drug misuse. Specically, to a decrease of 1% in our instrumented variables corresponds to an increase between 0.04% and 0.07% in the drug poisoning/misuse deaths ratio. We replicate our analysis using different definitions of political preferences, lag specications, dependent and independent variables and the findings are similar.
Topic:
Politics, Law Enforcement, Drugs, Public Health, and Depenalization
Political Geography:
Europe, England, and Wales

222. Global South Versus Geopolitical South: A Debate on the Analytical Relevance of the Concepts

Author:
Hugo Bras Martins da Costa and Rubens de Siqueira Duarte
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The aim of this article is to analyze the limitations and analytical possibilities offered by the concepts of the Global South and the Geopolitical South for a more accurate understanding of the geopolitical dynamics of international relations in the first decades of the 21st century. In methodological terms, the article is based on an analysis of the history of the concept of the Global South, a critical reflection on the main shortcomings of its definition, a presentation of the concept of the Geopolitical South and, finally, a recognition of its main limitations, in order to indicate suggestions for improvement. In its conclusion, the article argues that the concept of the Geopolitical South generates greater analytical yield compared to the Global South due to its valorization of the agency of the countries of the South, the greater precision of its inclusion and exclusion criteria and its denunciation of the asymmetries and inequalities present in the North-South divide in international relations. However, we also argue that the Geopolitical South needs to be improved so that it is capable of simultaneously contemplating the dimension of the unity of the South, as a counterpoint to the North, the dimension of the diversity of the South, as an ontological phenomenon, and the dimension of change in terms of a state's affiliation to the Geopolitical South over time.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Global South

223. MIT X TAU Series: Africa's New Development Models

Author:
Nicolas Kazadi and Claude Grunitzky
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
The third webinar in the third annual webinar series focused on various aspects of sustainable development in Africa. Featuring: Nicolas Kazadi is is a Congolese politician and career diplomat who has been Ambassador-at-large for the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 7 March 2019 and Minister of Finance since 12 April 2021.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Sustainability, and Models
Political Geography:
Africa and Congo

224. Starr Forum: Chornobyl to Zaporizhzhia: The Atom and its Impact on Ukraine’s Politics and Security

Author:
Kate Brown and Mariana Budjeryn
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Speakers: Kate Brown is the Thomas M Siebel Distinguished Professor in History of Science at MIT. She is on leave from MIT AY2022-23 and at the Netherland Institute for Advanced Studies. Brown’s research interests illuminate the point where history, science, technology and bio-politics converge to create large-scale disasters and modernist wastelands. She has written four books about topics ranging from population politics, linguistic mapping, the production of nuclear weapons and concomitant utopian communities, the health and environmental consequences of nuclear fallout from the Chernobyl disaster to narrative innovations of history writing in the 21st century.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Nuclear Power, and Chernobyl Disaster
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

225. MIT X TAU Series: Africa's E-Governance, feat. President José Maria Neves

Author:
José Maria Neves and Claude Grunitzky
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
This special event is part of the MIT X TAU webinar series focused on various aspects of sustainable development in Africa. Speaker: His Excellency José Maria Neves is currently the President of the Republic of Cabo Verde. Neves was born on the island of Santiago and became interested in politics as a teenager. He graduated at the School of Business Administration of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo, Brazil. Neves was Prime Minister and Head of the Government from February 2001 to April 2016. He presided over the PAICV - Partido Africano da Independência de Cabo Verde (African Party for the Independence of Cabo Verde), having won three national legislative elections. Moderator: Claude Grunitzky is the CEO of the Equity Alliance, a fund that invests in venture capital firms and startups led by people of color and women. Claude is also the founder of TRACE and TRUE Africa, two media companies championing the creativity of African youth. A graduate of London University and MIT, where he received an MBA as a Sloan Fellow, he is launching TRUE Africa University because he wants to help find actionable ways to nurture Africa's talent.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Governance, Sustainability, and E-Government
Political Geography:
Africa

226. Plebiscitarian Origins and Temptations of Liberal Democracy

Author:
Greg Yudin
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The current crisis of representative democracy has been vigorously addressed within political theory over the last decade. Both liberals and the left generally agree that the growing disengagement and estrangement from politics, low trust in representatives, and the rise of right-wing politicians have something to do with the dysfunction of representative democracy. At this point, it is safe to assert that there is an understanding that representative democracy is ailing –– an idea shared by a much wider audience in the liberal-democratic countries. Calls for either reforming the system or abandoning unrealistic hopes are increasingly pressing. What should replace the broken model? Arguably, the most appealing plea is to substitute representative democracy with “direct democracy,” understood as delegating decisions to the popular vote. If elites are corrupt, let the people rule! How this can be done seems pretty obvious, too: let’s take a vote and learn the will of the people! This concept has recently become an important agenda for political parties and movements worldwide and made them successful. Examples include the Five Star Movement in Italy, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s campaign in Ukraine, and the Indignados Movement in Spain. In the United States, an initiative to institute national referenda in the Constitution enjoys considerable support: according to the polls (which are themselves a way to gauge swiftly the popular will), it is consistently approved by 2/3 of Americans.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

227. Territorial Loss and Ethnopopulism

Author:
Perry Jess Carter and Grigore Pop-Eleches
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
This paper highlights the overlooked role of prior grievances stemming from historical territorial loss as a significant factor behind support for ethnopopulist parties. While not essential for the emergence of ethnopopulism, territorial loss uniquely aligns with the backward-looking victimization framing crucial to these parties’ electoral success. Utilizing cross-national experimental and observational data from original surveys conducted in 2020–2021 in Romania, Hungary, Germany, and Turkey, we establish territorial loss attitudes as a robust predictor of ethnopopulist party support. In addition to variations in national context, a trade-off emerges for governing populists, revealing that priming past losses attracts concerned voters but alienates those indifferent to territorial issues. Analyzing a quasi-natural experiment involving a new ethnopopulist party that emerged in Romania between waves, we conclude that loss attitudes are stable over time and temporally prior to support for populism.
Topic:
Politics, Territorial Disputes, Populism, and Territory
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Germany, Romania, and Hungary

228. Kuwait Country Report 2022

Author:
Ghanim Alnajjar
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since 1962, Kuwait has been a relatively open country in terms of freedom of expression and political participation. Although political life in general has faced many challenges and interruptions, political culture is still present and influential. Notably, the Arab Barometer survey ended in June 2022, during a continuing political crisis in the Parliament, in deadlock with the government. The crisis manifested itself in the way several members of the Parliament boycotted the sessions, which led to a political deadlock of sorts. Since the latest elections held before the survey in 2020, the political crisis did witness a considerable escalation. This led, among other things, to a stagnated political process. Surprisingly, the Emir and Crown Prince gave an important speech on 22 June 2022, in which they both expressed their intention to call for early elections, and as such announced the dissolution of the Parliament. This procedure is not new since the Parliament was disbanded ten times out of 18 elections in the past. These reforms led to a general state of optimism in society, which positively impacted the election campaigns. The campaigns became less polarizing and less aggressive against the government. The Parliament was disbanded, and elections were held on 19 September 2022. Results brought new indicators that are worthy of highlighting, but which are outside the scope of the survey. It is likely that if the survey was delayed until after June, the results would have been different from the results that came in before the governmental reforms. It might be useful to conduct a second follow-up survey as soon as possible, even if it will be conducted through phone interviews, and be limited to certain questions only. In any case, the survey results are consistent with earlier surveys. There is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the government, especially in relation to some specific policies, like public education policies and anti-corruption measures. It is notable also that the government’s policies towards Covid-19 were evaluated positively. Moreover, certain cultural elements and concerns, especially in relation to gender, have showed some important changes worthy of more studies. The same applies to the economic situation. In spite of the generally negative economic circumstances, the overall trend towards the economy shows noticeable optimism. The survey also focused on questions related to the workforce and employment, being largely concentrated in the public sector, with less employed in the private sector. The survey shows the intensive use of social media platforms in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Politics, Governance, Media, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

229. KEI's Special Project on the South Korean Nuclear Armament Debate

Author:
Andy Hong, Karl Friedhoff, Terrence Matsuo, Clint Work, and Jennifer Ahn
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
South Korea’s nuclear armament debate received renewed attention in 2023. But, this issue is one that has animated Korean politics, both domestic and international, for the past five decades. To explore this multifaceted issue, KEI brought together 12 emerging and mid-career experts to cover the South Korean nuclear weapons debate from three angles—the historical background, the domestic discourse, and the international implications. The views expressed herein are the authors’ alone.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, and Armament
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

230. The minilateral moment in the Middle East: An opportunity for US regional policy?

Author:
Jean-Loup Samaan
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “The Minilateral Moment in the Middle East: An Opportunity for US Regional Policy,” the Atlantic Council’s nonresident senior fellow Jean-Loup Samaan analyzes how regional powers are reconsidering the multilateral balance of their foreign policy arrangements, and the emerging implications for US Middle East policy. Over the past three years, the Middle East has experienced major intra-regional changes. After a decade of fierce competition between two blocs—one led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the other by Qatar and Turkey—both parties now seem willing to cooperate. One of the key features of this new regional environment, according to Samaan, has been the growth of so-called minilateral initiatives that regroup several countries on an ad hoc basis. Samaan also addresses how powers outside the region have embarked on a similar path of building relationships with countries in the Middle East. Russia’s recent attempt to build a similar framework with Turkey and Iran, he argues, provides evidence of how minilateralism is increasingly considered an effective instrument of regional diplomacy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Resilience, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

231. A US agenda for action in Sudan’s information environment

Author:
Cameron Hudson
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
There are few African countries that have received the same degree of high-level and sustained attention from the US government, during the administrations of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as the Republic of Sudan. While this engagement stems in large part from a long history of Washington leading diplomatic efforts to isolate the Sudanese government for its support for terrorism during the 1990s, advance the peace process in the country’s north-south civil war, and eventually punish the government for the Darfur genocide, Washington’s renewed diplomatic engagement at the time of Sudan’s 2018 popular uprising reflected a sense of opportunity that real change was potentially coming to the country. The historic events during the spring and summer of 2019, beginning with longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir’s arrest and removal by senior army officers and the brokering of a civilian-military hybrid government, created both an opportunity and what many in Washington saw as an obligation to help Sudan’s transition succeed. After decades of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation, the installation of a civilian-led government created the minimal condition that allowed Washington and Western allied governments to begin the task of providing a trusted local partner with the assistance to begin reforming the political system, stabilizing the economy, and transforming the armed forces that would eventually enable a full transition to democracy, one of the popular demands of the revolution. By late 2019, during a historic visit to Washington by Sudan’s newly named prime minister, Abdallah Hamdok, the Trump administration announced a process to normalize diplomatic relations with Sudan through an exchange of ambassadors, among other steps. Privately, the Trump administration also set about the task of constructing an assistance package that would meet the moment and provide the technical, financial, and development assistance needed to demonstrate a true “democracy dividend” to the vast majority of average Sudanese who were by this time struggling under the weight of financial collapse brought on by the one-two punch of regime neglect and, soon, COVID-19 shutdowns. Washington, however, was both ill-postured and slow to foresee the monumental political opening occurring in the early days of the revolution and then further delayed by an interlocking web of restrictions and prohibitions, some of them self-imposed and some imposed by the US Congress, that limited its ability to scale up resources in a timely manner. In addition to the challenges of having to undo more than twenty-five years of bureaucratic restrictions and red tape, Washington also needed to scale up its human resources inside Sudan that had largely dwindled over the years.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Media, Internet, Conflict, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, North America, and United States of America

232. Investigating China’s economic coercion: The reach and role of Chinese corporate entities

Author:
William Piekos
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China’s economic statecraft has expanded in line with Beijing’s vision for an international environment that is more conducive to its interests. Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are willing to use every means at their disposal to achieve this goal, bringing the full force of the party-state to bear in support of Xi’s objectives abroad and against perceived enemies of the Chinese government. Economic statecraft—the use of economic means to pursue foreign policy goals—has been a consistent feature of Xi’s dealings with CCP competitors and adversaries. Intensifying US-China strategic competition and Beijing’s increasingly overt attempts to assert its preferences only further emphasize the importance of confronting China’s use of economic coercion and influence and understanding the reach of Chinese companies. The deliberate use of economic ties to achieve geopolitical objectives is underpinned by corporate entities that facilitate trade, investment, and financial flows.1 Beijing’s preference for plausible deniability and nontransparency in theory makes corporate entities an attractive mechanism through which to signal its displeasure and to achieve strategic goals. Understanding the reach and role of such entities is, therefore, key to identifying where Beijing might be best positioned to advance its economic statecraft. To that end, this report explores avenues through which researchers can investigate these issues, considers industries that could be vulnerable to future coercion and influence, and offers policy recommendations to counter China’s economic statecraft.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Global Markets, Economy, Trade, Norms, and Coercion
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

233. Palestinian Democracy: Examining Barriers to Democratic Transition and How to Overcome Them

Author:
Pal-Think for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The paper examines the obstacles to democracy in Palestine, most notably the Israeli occupation, which has distorted the structures of Palestinian society and its desired state and impeded the elections. In addition, the Palestinian division has also led to the absence of national consensus on the time and manner of holding the elections. The paper also presented internal and external factors obstructing the conduct of democratic transitions in Palestine. The paper concluded with a set of policy proposals to address these obstacles, such as holding local and general elections, turning to the international community to help the Palestinians build their democracy and hold elections, and consolidating the values of democracy through a social and political upbringing in the emerging Palestinian generation.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, Occupation, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

234. The Economic Impact of China PNTR Repeal

Author:
David Schockenhoff and Michael Kleiman
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
As scepticism towards China is rising among policymakers, businesses grow more concerned about the potential economic fallout from an escalation in US-China tariff policy. Oxford Economics was commissioned by the US-China Business Council (USCBC) to help inform the policymaking process by examining two scenarios that could materialize if China’s Permanent Normalized Trade Relations (PNTR) status was revoked – including the increase of US tariffs on Chinese goods to column 2 rates as well as a Chinese retaliation imposing pre-WTO rates on US goods. Our analysis incorporates state-of-the art trade and economic models, including the Oxford Economics GEM, and finds that the US could lose up to $1.9trn in output over the five-year period following a China PNTR repeal. This is our third study for USCBC after examining the impact of the US-China relationship and associated scenarios in two previous reports (2017 and 2021).
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, Tariffs, Trade, Supply Chains, Policymaking, Decoupling, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

235. Marcia Williams: The Life and Times of Baroness Falkender

Author:
Linda McDougall
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Over a decade before Margaret Thatcher swept to power in May 1979, another woman was running Britain from 10 Downing Street: Marcia Williams, private and political secretary to Harold Wilson. Having worked for Wilson since 1956, Williams became the Prime Minister’s trusted adviser and confidante forming, as the historian Ben Pimlott once described it, ‘the most famous and mysterious partnership in modern political history’. To mark the publication of Marcia Williams: The Life and Times of Baroness Falkender by ‪@BitebackPublishing‬, the ‪@mileendinstitute4300‬ and Tides of History welcomed her biographer, Linda McDougall, to ‪@QMUL‬‪@QMUL‬, where Marcia Field (as she then was) studied History from 1951 to 1954 and was Secretary of the Labour Society. Linda McDougall is a leading journalist, television producer and author of several books on women in politics. In addition to charting Williams’ rise through the Labour Party, Linda examined the assumptions and accusations that were a constant accompaniment to her political career and charted her influence on British politics and policy.
Topic:
Politics, Women, Domestic Politics, Labour Party, and Marcia Williams
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

236. Governing in Hard Times Conference: The UK Economy

Author:
Colm Murphy, Seema Malhotra, Diane Coyle, and Jeevun Sandher
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In the first of four thematic sessions on the urgent political and policy questions facing British politics ahead of the next general election, this panel considered how a centre-left government could maintain macroeconomic credibility, while also achieving its policy goals. It considered what institutional and political relationships it would have to renew - with trade unions, organised business, the City, and others - the appeal of 'Bidenomics' and how radical the next Chancellor of the Exchequer will be able to be. Chair: Dr Colm Murphy (Deputy Director of the Mile End Institute) Panel: Seema Malhotra MP (MP for Feltham and Heston and Shadow Minister for Business and Consumers) Professor Diane Coyle (Co-Director of the Bennett Institute for Public Policy at the University of Cambridge) Dr Jeevun Sandher (Labour Party Parliamentary Candidate for Loughborough)
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

237. Breaking the Glass Chamber: Mary Honeyball on the life and times of Edith Summerskill MP

Author:
Mary Honeyball
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
2022 marks a series of historic anniversaries for women in British politics. Forty years since the election of Harriet Harman, the Mother of the House; thirty-five years since the election of the first Black woman MP, Diane Abbott; thirty years since the first woman, Betty Boothroyd, was elected Speaker of the House; and twenty-five years since the election of more than a hundred women MPs for the Labour Party. At its landmark Breaking the Glass Chamber conference from 15 to 17 September 2022, the Mile End Institute brought together historians, political scientists, and sociologists to explore what politics meant to and for women in the second half of the twentieth century. In this video, the former Labour MEP, Mary Honeyball, presents her new biography of Edith Summerskill, the 'Pioneering Feminist Labour MP', who served in Clement Attlee's government and oversaw the creation of the National Insurance Scheme. Mary discusses how Summerskill's campaigning was instrumental in promoting women's causes throughout her life and reflects on her achievements in securing equal rights for housewives and divorced women over property.
Topic:
Politics, History, Elections, Women, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

238. Breaking the Glass Chamber: Reflections on Parliamentary Careers

Author:
Estelle Morris and Dawn Primarolo
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
2022 marks a series of historic anniversaries for women in British politics. Forty years since the election of Harriet Harman, the Mother of the House; thirty-five years since the election of the first Black woman MP, Diane Abbott; thirty years since the first woman, Betty Boothroyd, was elected Speaker of the House; and twenty-five years since the election of more than a hundred women MPs for the Labour Party. At its landmark Breaking the Glass Chamber conference from 15 to 17 September 2022, the Mile End Institute brought together historians, political scientists, and sociologists to explore what politics meant to and for women in the second half of the twentieth century. In this session - chaired by Dr Ruth Davidson - Dame Margaret Hodge (MP for Barking and Dagenham, 1994-present), Baroness (Estelle) Morris (MP for Birmingham Yardley, 1992-2005), and Baroness (Dawn) Primarolo (MP for Bristol South, 1987-2015) reflect on their lengthy parliamentary careers and their time in government and offer some lessons for women entering Parliament and public life.
Topic:
Politics, Women, Representation, and Parliament
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

239. Quo Vadis Indonesian Democracy? A Closer Look at Dynastic Politics

Author:
Irine Hiraswari Gayatri
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
While being recognized as a “reluctant global statesman” (Wee 2022), President Joko Widodo is known for his pace in advancing Indonesia’s infrastructure development and his popularity ratings have been high. However, the stability of Indonesian democracy recently faces a threat from the growing symptom of political dynasties, a recurring political feature in Southeast Asia including Indonesia. Political dynasty in Indonesia refers to the phenomenon where political power or political positions are passed down from generation to generation within one family or lineage. Establishing a political dynasty is often considered a political strategy to gain and maintain power. By using family power and influence, politicians can build strong support networks. In theory, political dynasty has both positive and negative connotations. Positive connotations can occur if the generation holding power is proven competent; however, this may happen when the institutional structure, for instance, a political party, is weak. On the other hand, negative connotations arise when the dynastic systеm is used to maintain power within a family without paying attention to leadership quality. Nevertheless, the case in Indonesia involving President Jokowi’s son in the 2024 election as a Vice President candidate has yielded more negative responses. Several fundamental variables could lead to the establishment of political dynasties. One of these reasons is the desire for personal or family power. Furthermore, there are structured collectives formed by mutual consensus and a feeling of cohesion, leading to the emergence of group leaders and participants. This is made possible by a multi-party democratic systеm. Moreover, the collaboration between leaders and businesses requires certain conditions to combine the power of financial resources with the power of political personalities. Ultimately, there is a propensity to “assign onuses” between the government and influential individuals with money, which often results in corruption.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Presidency, and Meritocracy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

240. ECOWAS and the management of political transitions in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso: Adopting a three-dimensional approach for stability and sustainable democracy and development

Author:
Mubin Adewumi Bakare
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
According to the Secretary General of the United Nations (UN), Antonio Guterres, 2021 was a year marked by ‘an epidemic’ of coups.1 The Economist noted that 2021 saw more coups than the previous five years combined.2 Scrutinising the data further reveals that the West African region experienced the largest number of military coups, both successful and failed, during 2021 and 2022. There were four successful coups d’état in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso, and failed coup attempts and mutiny in Niger and Guinea Bissau between March 2021 to January 2022. This democratic reversal portends political instability, and its attendant economic consequences for the ECOWAS are concerning considering the developmental agenda of the region.3 The focus of this article is examining measures for strengthening democratic transitions in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso by analysing responses at the national, regional and international levels to ensure rapid restoration of constitutional order. It begins by reviewing the experience of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in supporting democratic transition in the region, while stressing and recognising the interlinkages between defence, development and peacebuilding in laying the foundation for democratisation, peace and sustainable development. The article will advance certain policy prescriptions that entail long-term investments by the international community, and regional and civil society actors in West Africa in the areas of defence, development and peacebuilding, as part of a comprehensive support towards successful democratic transition in the affected countries.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Democracy, Transition, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso

241. Lebanese-Turkish Relations after the 2000s and the Neo-Ottomanist Discourse in Lebanon

Author:
Tuba Yıldız
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Lebanon, had non-visible relationships with Turkey after its independence and the post-civil war period. Although it lost the balance of political stability at times, the political affinity that emerged with the participation of Lebanon in the close relations, which Turkey sought to establish with Arab countries in the 2000s, continued with mutual negotiations at the point of cooperation. After the Lebanon-Israel war in 2006, which caused political and economic destruction in the country, Turkey increased its support for Lebanon. Accordingly, the crises appeared after the Arab Spring in the region led Turkey to follow the sensitive policy over the sectarian groups in the country. However, some reactions arose in Lebanon’s political arena against Turkey’s increasing regional activism, bringing several ideological questions on Turkey’s approach towards Lebanon. Regarding the relationship between Turkey and Lebanon, “Does Turkey desire to establish a new Ottoman administration in the Middle East?” was one of the questions asked. Moreover, a negative environment was created and used occasionally as a trump card against Turkey’s approach toward Lebanon, saying that even the Ottoman Empire did not play an active role in the Lebanon region. This study examines whether there are traces of Neo-Ottomanism and sectarianism in the political roadmap followed by the Turkish Government in its Lebanon policy. It discusses, the diplomatic response of Turkey to the anti-Ottoman rhetoric in Lebanese politics and its effect on bilateral relations. Accordingly, the study analyzes Turkey’s effort to maintain the balance against sectarian discourse that shapes Lebanon’s policy.
Topic:
Politics, Sectarianism, Neo-Ottomanism, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Lebanon

242. Opiate of the Masses: Analysing Dynamics, Rhetoric, and Sociopolitical Consequences of Populism in Contemporary Politics of Pakistan

Author:
Muhammad Kamran Fiaz and Rafida Nawaz
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Populism is a political phenomenon that has gained significant attention in recent times due to its ability to appeal to the masses for common good and to bring about changes in established political systems. It has become a significant political force in many parts of the world, including Pakistan. Pakistan is a country that has experienced political instability and economic challenges since its inception. While populism has provided a platform for addressing the grievances of marginalized communities, it has also posed significant challenges to democratic governance and economic stability. Mixed method research approach is utilized in the study to examine the role of populism in the political history of Pakistan. To study political dynamics of Pakistan, the works of scholars such as Ernesto Laclau, Chantal Mouffe, Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe Schmitter are used in the research paper. To gather empirical data, a questionnaire has been employed as a research tool. This enables a deeper understanding of recent developments in populism within Pakistan. By examining the historical and social context of Pakistan and identifying the factors that have contributed to the rise of populist movements in the country, the research paper aims to analyze the developments of populism in Pakistan offering insights into its potential benefits and pitfalls. The findings of the study will have significant implications for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners in Pakistan and beyond.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

243. Political Instability In Pakistan: Challenges and Remedies

Author:
Muhammad Imran, Ghulam Murtiza, and Muhammad Sulyman Akbar
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Political instability has become a significant worldwide threat in recent years, especially in the world's poorest and most unstable countries. This is a major problem that is stunting the development of these countries. Politics must be kept stable if society remains united and the government retains its legitimacy. It is necessary for a country's economy to thrive, society to come together, and rule of law to be upheld. The political system's stability has a direct impact on the nation and state-building processes. Political stability is essential for both of them to develop successfully. Political stability is crucial to the efficient running of government. Foreign diplomacy and international trade are both hampered by political instability because investors are reluctant to risk their money in countries with uncertain leadership. As a result of breakdown in law and order and rise in illicit activity, the public becomes increasingly worried and insecure when there is political insecurity in a country. Only political maturity and stability will be able to handle these challenges in the nation's best interests.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Instability, and Uncertainty
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

244. Tolerance on Trial: Unearthing the Determinants of Political Tolerance among Youth

Author:
Shahzad Khaver Mushtaq, Zubair Hanif, and Asma Yunus
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This research embarked on an investigation of the factors influencing political tolerance amongst young adults, specifically in the District of Sargodha. The primary focus of this study was to identify both individual and environmental variables associated with political tolerance in this demographic. The exploration scrutinized political tolerance in Sargodha's youth through the lens of various political and socio-economic determinants, including factors such as sexuality, educational attainment, political allegiance, and political mobilization. Furthermore, the study also assessed the influence of social capital, personality traits, and exposure to social media on the political tolerance of young inhabitants in the District of Sargodha. The research employed a quantitative methodology. Data collection was executed via a survey method, with a sample size of 431 students, derived using a multi-stage sampling approach from the target population. Insights gathered from the study reveal that a significant portion of students refrained from engaging in political dialogues with peers who share similar views or from participating in public assemblies organized by their respective political affiliations. Interestingly, these students prefer to utilize social media platforms as a conduit to express their political allegiance and opinions on pertinent political issues. The students also exhibited a substantial understanding and respect for varying political beliefs and ethnic backgrounds, asserting the importance of everyone's right to hold and express their viewpoints. This recognition and appreciation of the cultural diversity of political perspectives amongst different ethnic groups were prevalent amongst the majority of youth participants. Most notably, the consensus amongst these young adults demonstrated an acceptance, appreciation, and respect for diversity, thereby fostering an environment conducive to political tolerance within their society.
Topic:
Politics, Youth, Diversity, Tolerance, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

245. Democracy and the Politics of Ethnicity and Language in Pakistan During the Bhutto Regime: A Case Study of Balochistan

Author:
Changiz Ahmed, Mohammad Ali, and Adnan Riaz
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The article studies the dynamics of ethnic conflict in Balochistan and its relation to the paradigm of democracy in Pakistan during the first elected government in the Bhutto Era. Like many third-world countries, the language controversies in Pakistan have provoked ethnic and political conflicts. Due to disagreements over the national language, the government was unable to develop a constitution for nearly 9 years after independence. Though the dispute was theoretically resolved in 1956, it continues to haunt the state. Although Bhutto was an elected leader, his rule was not immune to ethnic conflicts. Ethnic sentiments garnered attention in Balochistan, triggering confrontations and secessionist tendencies. An insurgency began in Balochistan, causing harm to both the Baloch and the state, and it still exists. The article affirms that in this context, ethnic conflicts have political objectives; the main causes of such conflicts are political, such as under-representation in state institutions, unequal distribution of resources, economic disparities, and, in many cases, the state elite's reluctance to recognise the identity of a particular ethnic minority.
Topic:
Politics, Insurgency, Democracy, Ethnicity, Language, Federalism, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Balochistan

246. Impacts of Saudi-Israel Relations on the Middle East: An Analysis

Author:
Zahid Yaseen, Muhammad Muzaffar, and Kinza Tariq
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This qualitative study aims to analyze the impact of Saudi-Israel relations on the Middle East. The study also focused on the reaction of Arab countries to their bilateral ties and incidents that have arisen in the Middle East as a direct result of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The deteriorating condition of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia wreaked havoc throughout the region. The United States plays a pivotal role in the politics of the Middle East; therefore, a nation that is willing to operate as the United States' right hand was sorely needed in the region. Israel, a country that is not recognized on a global scale, has set up shop in that vacated seat. Together, they aid proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which contributes to instability in the region. The only thing that could diminish the damage would be a concerted effort by Muslim states against Israel.
Topic:
Politics, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Instability
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia

247. Tackling Russian Gray Zone Approaches in the Post-Cold War Era

Author:
Ryan Burkholder
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
To undermine U.S. military strength, state actors are increasingly operating in the ambiguous environment between peace and war known as the “gray zone.” These actions test U.S. response by exploiting the West’s rigid notion of conflict. Soviet actions toward the United States and other nations during the Cold War shared many similarities with contemporary Russian strategy. There is no current uniform definition of the gray zone, and the United States has not developed doctrine to address this challenge. Russia has adapted Soviet Cold War techniques for the digital and globalized age and effectively integrates instruments of power against the United States by targeting seams within culture, maintaining ambiguity, and controlling narratives. Countering these tactics requires that the United States modify its mindset toward conflict and improve integration of its own instruments of power.
Topic:
Cold War, Politics, Conflict, Gray Zone, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

248. Quo Vadis, Turkish IR? Mapping Turkish IR’s Footsteps within the Global

Author:
İrem Karamık and Erman Ermihan
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The International Relations (IR) discipline is ascendant because of the theoretical and methodological divisions and controversies within. As it is mostly placed in the Non-Western IR category, Turkish IR is an interesting case in that it reveals the temporal changes of theoretical debates in IR and their local resonance from the purview of a geography that is jammed between the West and the rest. For this reason, this paper examines the literature on the Turkish School of IR (if there is any) and draws some conclusions regarding its current state. This research first utilizes the Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) surveys conducted by the International Relations Council of Turkey (IRCT) between 2007 and 2018. More extensively, the top 20 journals categorized under Google Scholar’s “Diplomacy and International Relations” list are coded based on their titles containing “Turkey.” Articles from the 1922–2021 period are then analyzed considering their authors, abstracts, and keywords. From this analysis, the study finds that studies focusing on Turkey have improved over the years, although there is a need for more theoretical and methodological advancements. As a “peripheral” country in IR, Turkey is still a subject of study by the “center” countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Methodology
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

249. The EU accession prospects of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Author:
Michael Emerson, Tinatin Akhvlediani, Denis Cenusa, Veronika Movchan, and Artem Remizov
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the week following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 all three East European states associated with the EU – Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia – submitted applications to accede to the EU. In response, the European Commission published ‘Opinions’ in June, setting out in each case conditions that should be met for these applications to advance on the path towards membership. This paper reports on the first half-year of the work undertaken by the three states to meet these conditions. All three states have set in motion actions largely concerning the fundamental political and rule of law criteria for membership. In all cases there is much work in progress underway, with some conditions already met, and others at an earlier stage. For both Ukraine and Moldova, it is possible that the majority of conditions will be met in the course of 2023. For Georgia there are still some more basic political obstacles to be overcome. The Commission is due to publish in October 2023 comprehensive evaluations of the preparedness of each of the three states, and in the case that the conditions are largely met, the EU should as a next step open up the formal accession negotiation process. It is also recommended that the EU reform by that time the accession process itself, notably by switching to qualified majority voting on the details of the procedures, and better still adopting a staged accession process that would assure structured incentives for overcoming the blockages in the present system as seen in the Western Balkans.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Rule of Law, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, and Georgia

250. Turning No Tides: Union Effects on Partisan Preferences and the Working-Class Metamorphosis

Author:
Sinisa Hadziabdic
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
Relying on panel data for Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the paper examines the impact of union membership on partisan preferences. By leveraging panel data to control for time-invariant selection effects, we show that unions exert a small consistent left‑wing influence on the average wage earner who becomes affiliated, but they are no longer able to modify the preferences of working-class members. A longitudinal approach reveals that changes in partisan preferences can be linked to members’ preexisting predispositions and to the prevalent political views within unions. Unions mainly attract individuals who already share their political inclinations before joining. These preexisting left-wing convictions allow an additional left-wing shift to take place through a value congruence mechanism provoked by interactions with long-term union members who are even more left-wing oriented than the newcomers. Symmetrically, working-class joiners exhibit less pronounced left-wing inclinations before becoming affiliated, a gap that widens further after they join as a consequence of their unmet expectations.
Topic:
Politics, Class, Political Parties, Data, and Trade Unions
Political Geography:
Europe and North America