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2991. Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle

Author:
Jon Faust and John S. Irons
Publication Date:
11-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics

2992. Building Aspects of Democracy before Democracy: Electoral Practices in Nineteenth-Century Chile

Author:
J. Samuel Valenzuela
Publication Date:
04-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The paper presents a detailed analysis of electoral practices in nineteenth-century Chile. It argues that such elections have been largely misunderstood in Chilean historiography, given the fact that the political system has been viewed simply as a tool in the hands of the rich. Indeed, the existence of income requirements in order to register to vote has even led analysts to assume that only wealthy males actually voted. By contrast, this paper shows that a majority of the voting public in the electoral processes that occurred every three years was drawn from the middle-lower to lower strata of society. The politicization of artisans and other working-class groups therefore began early in the nation's history. Moreover, the involvement of people in the electoral politics of the time greatly exceeded the numbers of men who actually voted. As such, the elections permitted the formation of a considerable degree of loyalty within the population at large for the emerging parties, which helps explain their strength in the Chilean case. The nineteenth century's electoral practices also created a competitive and highly militant electoral culture that affected the conduct of elections well into the twentieth century, i.e., even after crucial transformations in the early 1890s permitted them to become a vehicle for the realization of Chilean democracy.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, History, and Democracy
Political Geography:
South America and Chile

2993. Ethnicity and Elections in The Caribbean: A Radical Realignment of Power in Trinidad and the Threat of Communal Strife

Author:
Ralph R. Premdas
Publication Date:
04-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The 1995 elections in the multiethnic Caribbean state, Trinidad and Tobago, were not an ordinary affair. They not only saw a change of regime but with it a change in the ethnic identity of the new political rulers. Control of the government by one ethnic party or the other poses a threat to the welfare of excluded and defeated parties. For many years one ethnic community controlled the government and entrenched its supporters at all levels of government as well as allocating most resources for the benefit of its own community. With the arrival of a new communally based party to power following the 1995 elections, vital interests are at stake. This paper examines how the change of government occurred through the electoral process.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Elections, and Ethnicity
Political Geography:
Central America, Caribbean, and Trinidad and Tobago

2994. Poverty and Inequality in Latin America: Some Political Reflections

Author:
Guillermo O'Donnell
Publication Date:
07-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The paper begins with a brief overview of the present social situation of Latin America, arguing that during the 1980s the widespread poverty and deep social inequality already existing in the region further increased. After this the paper reviews several strategies that could be used by would-be reformers, pointing out the potentialities but also the limitations of these strategies. Consequently the present text examines the broad contours of political coalitions that might be able to deal reasonably effectively with poverty and inequality. The paper concludes by arguing that the only possible foundation for these strategies and coalitions is a morally and democratically inspired view of the respect due to the dignity of every human being. The likelihood of such an emergence is not assessed.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Poverty, and Inequality
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

2995. Disaggregating Political Regime: Conceptual Issues in the Study of Democratization

Author:
Gerardo L. Munck
Publication Date:
08-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The increasingly global scope of democratization has challenged comparativists to engage in crossregional research as part of a collective enterprise. The response to such a challenge, however, hinges upon their ability to both base their research on a set of clear concepts, a prerequisite for theory-building, and clarify their method of case selection, a prerequisite for theory-testing. While these conceptual issues have yet to be fully resolved, I show how the work of a group of 'regime analysts' provides the best starting point for scholars interested in this enterprise. For this purpose, I show how the disaggregation of the concept of political regime provides the basis for a distinction among three analytically separable problems--the process of transition, the outcome of this process of transition, and the process of consolidation--and for more nuanced distinctions in terms of modes of transition, regime types and subtypes, and degrees of consolidation. I also show how the problem of conceptual stretching is avoided by regime analysts in the course of case selection through the vertical organization of their concepts along a ladder of generality and the application of a simple rule. Finally, I show how the study of political regimes on the basis of quantitative indices of democracy fails to avoid the problems of conceptual conflation and conceptual stretching.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe and South America

2996. Democracy 'with Adjectives': Conceptual Innovations in Comparative Research

Author:
David Collier and Steven Levitsky
Publication Date:
08-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The recent trend toward democratization in countries throughout the globe has challenged scholars to pursue two potentially contradictory goals: to develop a differentiated conceptualization of democracy that captures the diverse experiences of these countries; and to extend the analysis to this broad range of cases without 'stretching' the concept. This paper argues that this dual challenge has led to a proliferation of conceptual innovations, including hundreds of subtypes of democracy-i.e., democracy 'with adjectives.' The paper explores the strengths and weaknesses of three important strategies of innovation that have emerged: 'precising' the definition of democracy; shifting the overarching concept with which democracy is associated; and generating various forms of subtypes. Given the complex structure of meaning produced by these strategies for refining the concept of democracy, we conclude by offering an old piece of advice with renewed urgency: It is imperative that scholars situate themselves in relation to this structure of meaning by clearly defining and explicating the conception of democracy they are employing.
Topic:
Globalization, Politics, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2997. The Break-Up of Czechoslovakia: The Impact of Party Development on the Separation of the State

Author:
Abby Innes
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
When Czechoslovakia separated into two independent republics on January 1, 1993, it was hailed as the "velvet divorce." Relief that a European "ethnic" conflict had been resolved without physical aggression was apparently so deep as to have blunted curiosity about the real issues underlying the conflict. This paper looks back into the file and, in particular, explores the impact of party political developments on efforts to mediate some form of constitutional compromise. The analysis is not intended as an account of the separation (which would necessarily delve deep into historical, cultural, and economic questions). The more specific aim is to consider the issues and institutional pressures that dominated party development between 1989 and 1993, and to evaluate their contribution to the split. The article concludes that the profoundly unpopular decision to separate the country emanated from irreconcilable views on the correct "transition" path rather than a deeply rooted nationalism on either side. Moreover, both Czech and Slovak electorates were, to a striking degree, "held hostage" to party choices of economic policy and a common state, presented as mutually exclusive possibilities.
Topic:
Politics, Ethnicity, Political Parties, and Post-Communism
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Czechoslovakia

2998. Gross Human Rights Violations in 1994

Author:
Brigitte Hamm
Publication Date:
12-1996
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Leaving theoretical questions aside, the measurement of human rights is often considered to be appropriate in evaluating a country's human rights situation. Such data are used as an auxiliary tool of exogenous pressure, which is known as political conditionality whereby aid is related to specific political practices. Often human rights organizations of the South ask for the instrument of political conditionality against repressive regimes. However, exogenous pressure directed mainly towards elections and the respect for political human rights may be criticized as a kind of imperialistic attitude, trying to implement Western values in Non-Western societies.
Topic:
Development, Human Rights, Politics, Terrorism, and Conditionality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2999. Numbering British Contention, 1758-1834

Author:
Thomas Chronopoulos
Publication Date:
12-1995
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Studies of Social Change
Abstract:
In the period between 1758 and 1834 repertoires of contention in Britain changed from parochial, particular, and bifurcated to cosmopolitan, modular, and autonomous. In other words, eighteenth century actions "that included a good deal of ceremonial, street theater, deployment of strong visual symbols, and destruction of symbolically charged objects" through the course of time lost their relative predominance and instead "demonstrations, strikes, rallies, public meetings, and similar forms of public interaction came to prevail during the nineteenth century." These new routines for the eighteenth century contentious events are the ones that ordinary people in the United States and Western Europe still to this date principally employ to make claims. This conclusion merges from a systematic study of more than 8,000 contentious gatherings, in Southern England (1758-1820) and Great Britain as a whole (1828-1834).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and England

3000. Symbols, Positions, Objects: Toward a New Theory of Revolutions and Collective Action

Author:
Mustafa Emirbayer and Jeff Goodwin
Publication Date:
10-1995
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Studies of Social Change
Abstract:
In 1980, Jack Goldstone wrote an influential review essay entitled "Theories of Revolution: The Third Generation." Goldstone noted that a "third generation" of theorists had emerged during the 1970s, one that placed special emphasis on the causal role of political and economic "structures" in social revolutions, especially states, transnational forces, and peasant communities. (By contrast, "second generation" theorists emphasized the role of diffuse "social strains" and their social-psychological consequences) Today, it seems increasingly apparent that this third generation, despite its impressive theoretical contributions, has largely run its course. In fact, as John Foran has recently noted, "the first signs of a new school may be appearing on the intellectual horizon." This new perspective, Foran and many other scholars agree, ought to focus much more attention on culture and ideology (as well as on agency) than did the third generation, but without losing sight of the important role played by political and economic structures.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Science and Technology