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41. Reality show: Why Europe must not cave in Trump’s culture war

Author:
Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Europe is in a culture war with Trump’s America. Part of this involves Trumpists propping up their ideological allies in European politics. A deeper level involves humiliating Europeans in their dealings with the US. The two intertwine to tell a single story. Trump and his acolytes can only do this because Europeans let them. At the first level Trumpists exploit polarisation in societies and the rise of Europe’s “new right”. At the second they take advantage of division and hesitation among European leaders. It doesn’t have to be this way. A decade of crises has strengthened European sentiment among the public. Almost all member states still have mainstream-led, pro-European governments. This should give the EU’s politicians the courage to act—and defend a Europe that writes its own script. That would also help preserve a strong transatlantic alliance; one in which the EU and European countries are America’s peers, not its subordinates.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Donald Trump, and Culture War
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

42. Policy Brief 19: Fragile foundations: Niger's Assises Nationales and the challenge of political renewal

Author:
Antje Herrberg
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The policy brief analyses the Assises Nationales de la Refondation held in Niger in early 2025. It explores the process as a national dialogue aimed at redefining the country’s political order following the 2023 military coup. The brief evaluates the legitimacy, inclusiveness, and implications of the dialogue and the resulting Charter of Refoundation, which functions as a transitional constitution.
Topic:
Politics, Coup, National Dialogue, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Niger

43. The political scene in Israel a year before the Knesset elections

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2026 will be the first chance for Israeli political forces to renew their social mandate since the Gaza Strip war began. Polls show that Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition may lose its majority. This could prompt the government to use foreign policy more for electoral purposes. The opposition’s chances depend on how well it consolidates and how effective the new parties' messages are. External influences on the campaign, especially from the US, will likely intensify.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, Knesset, Parliament, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

44. Artificial Intelligence and Politics: Legal Dilemmas and Risks to Democracy

Author:
Daniele Battista and Gabriele Uva
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The rapid progress of AI has raised questions about its political, ethical, and legal impact, particularly regarding institutional transparency and citizens’ privacy. This study examined the implications of AI in European politics, evaluating whether it enhances democracy or fosters algorithmic manipulations that contravene ethical and legal norms. Adopting a deductive approach, it examined narratives, scenarios, and expectations regarding the use of AI in decision-making and governance mechanisms. The aim was to offer a critical perspective on the dynamics at play, highlighting the risks, opportunities, and legal protections available. The study contributed to the academic debate on the ethical and regulatory implications of AI in governance, providing insights for future regulation and public policy.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Democracy, Ethics, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, Data, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Europe

45. Ceuta y Melilla:aspectos militares alo largo de la historia

Author:
Luis Feliu
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
This essay, dedicated to the military aspects related to the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, includes, after a necessary introduction, the historical background of the cities and also of Morocco to understand the framework of their historical claims, which are mainly the reason for the permanent military presence in the cities.
Topic:
History, Rif War, Politics, NATO, and European Union
Political Geography:
Morocco and North Africa

46. Stepping up Engagement in the Sahel: Russia, China, Turkey and the Gulf States

Author:
Nina Wilén
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Over the past five years, since the latest wave of coups began in 2020, states in the Sahel have strategically realigned and shifted external partnerships. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger suspended their security collaboration with their long-term ally, France, following their respective coups between 2020 and 2023, and demanded for the immediate withdrawal of French troops while advancing a new narrative of sovereignty. In 2023 Mali’s regime ousted the decade-long, 13,000 troops-strong UN peacekeeping mission in the country, MINUSMA, while Niger expelled the EU’s two security and defense missions, one of which had been deployed since 2012. A few months later, Niger also broke off a decade-long defense partnership with the US. In a second wave of expulsion, yet different in manner and context, Chad, Senegal and Ivory Coast also suspended military collaboration with France in 2024. This recent expulsion of Western and multilateral partners has been accompanied by a turn by Sahelian states to old and new, predominantly authoritarian, actors. This shift reflects an effort by the military regimes to project independence, diversify their partners and ultimately maintain their hold on power. Traditional partners like China and Russia have intensified economic and security relationships with their Sahelian partners during the past few years, while newer partners like Turkey and the Gulf states have increased their presence and influence in the region through infrastructure projects, arms exports and natural resource deals. At the same time, the exit by the AES states from the regional organisation ECOWAS has resulted in both new partnerships and new tensions among member states, profoundly reshaping the regional landscape. This article, the second in a two-part series examining the security and political context in the Sahel, explores these evolving partnerships with non-Western actors, focusing in particular on the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. It examines the broader lines of cooperation and engagement by Russia, China, Turkey and the Gulf states and identifies both similarities and important differences in their approaches. The aim is to provide a clearer overview of the Sahel’s shifting international relationships and to deepen our understanding of the dynamics, tensions and strategic choices among non-Western partners. differences and tensions between the non-Western partners. With a growing number of external actors competing for influence in the Sahel, Europe must base its recalibrated (re)engagement on a solid understanding of these dynamics.
Topic:
Politics, Coup, Engagement, and Security Partnerships
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Turkey, Asia, Sahel, and Gulf Nations

47. Engendering Pluralism in Economics: Gendered Perspectives from an International Survey of Economists*

Author:
Mohsen Javdani
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This study contributes to growing calls for greater pluralism in economics by examining how gender shapes economists’ normative and epistemological orientations. Drawing on original survey data from 2,425 economists across 19 countries, we document systematic gender differences in views on a broad range of issues. Female economists are significantly more likely to support progressive equity-oriented positions, challenge mainstream assumptions, and endorse pluralistic approaches to inquiry. We also find stark gender differences in political ideology: women are far more likely than men to identify as left-leaning—particularly far-left—while men disproportionately align with centrist or right-leaning ideologies. These ideological divides account for some of the gender differences in views, underscoring the mediating role of political ideology. However, the influence of ideology itself varies by gender: moving rightward on the ideological spectrum reduces support for some progressive positions more sharply among men than women. This suggests that gendered experiences inform distinct interpretive frameworks that persist even within shared ideological categories. Taken together, our findings highlight that gender diversity in economics is not merely demographic but epistemic—and that realizing its transformative potential requires institutional environments that value and legitimize dissenting and underrepresented perspectives.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Ideology, Pluralism, and Gender Diversity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

48. The Yemen Review Quarterly: October-December 2024

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Houthi leader Abdelmalek al-Houthi sought to reposition his movement as the head of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. Israel’s destruction of Gaza and attacks on Lebanon’s Hezbollah, including the killing of its influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah, have left the alliance weakened, a point underscored by the rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran has tried to avoid direct conflict with Israel and the West, leaving the Houthis as the only undiminished group continuing to fight. Abdelmalek has increasingly spoken as if on behalf of the entire alliance, condemning the war in Gaza and chastising Saudi Arabia for pursuing normalization with Israel. The Houthis dissolved their Supreme Council for the Management and Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and International Cooperation (SCMCHA), transferring its responsibilities to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. SCMCHA oversaw humanitarian operations and was notorious for its interference and aid diversion. The move follows the arrest and detention of dozens of humanitarian workers in June, some of whom have since been charged with espionage.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, Houthis, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

49. The Yemen Review Quarterly: January-March 2025

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
On March 15, the US launched Operation Rough Rider, a massive expansion of its aerial campaign against the Houthi group (Ansar Allah). The strikes followed a Houthi threat to resume targeting Israeli ships due to the blockade of aid into Gaza on March 2. Strikes have been taking place continuously as of the time of writing. The Houthi-affiliated Health Ministry has reported that as of April 14, at least 123 civilians have been killed and another 247 wounded, though the real numbers are probably higher. The airstrikes are fundamentally different than those undertaken during the Biden administration, both in intensity and scope, targeting not just missile installations and weapons depots, but also communications infrastructure and the group’s leadership. International scrutiny of the airstrikes briefly increased when the White House mistakenly leaked operational plans to a journalist.
Topic:
Politics, Houthis, Humanitarian Crisis, Shipping, and Airstrikes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

50. Instruments of Hybrid Warfare: Dissemination of Pro-Russian Propaganda Narratives Through Populist Politicians in the Slovak Republic

Author:
Martin Solik, Dalibor Velký, and Jan Graf
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article uses thematic discursive analysis to examine selected pro-Kremlin populist politicians in Slovakia. The enforcement of one-sided propagandist thoughts and opinions, primarily through radical anti-system politicians and 'alternative' media outlets freely available on the internet, has become one of the most important aspects of hybrid warfare in today's world. This paper aims to identify the specific goals of Russian propaganda and clarify how populist politicians spread propaganda on social media through language resources. The results of the analysis are presented at the end of the paper, along with the word resources used by these politicians. The results prove that pro-Kremlin populist politicians use word and language manipulation to help spread unilaterally focused and distorted information in Slovakia. This article aims to build on and complement existing research on pro-Kremlin anti-system politicians and their role in Russia's hybrid warfare in Europe.
Topic:
Politics, Media, Populism, Propaganda, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, and Slovakia

51. The Fragility of Democracy | Interview with the Georgian first female president Salome Zourabichvili

Author:
Salomé Zourabichvili and Tomáš Sedláček
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Vaclav Havel Library
Abstract:
Salome Zourabichvili, a Georgian politician and the first female president of her country, is set to visit the Czech Republic at the invitation of the Václav Havel Library and of Pavel Fischer, Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Security of the Senate of the Czech Parliament. Following parliamentary elections in Georgia in October 2024, the pro-Western president said the result had been manipulated by Russia, pledging to remain in office until new elections were held. However, MPs from the ruling Georgian Dream party, which has a majority in parliament after October’s elections, installed Mikheil Kavelashvili as the country’s new president. The director of the Václav Havel Library, Tomáš Sedláček, conducted an interview with Salome Zourabichvili on recent developments in the country, the backsliding of democracy and Georgia’s geopolitical importance at the Václav Havel Library on Wednesday 9 April 2025.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, Democratic Backsliding, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

52. Political Humor in Communist Eastern Europe

Author:
Jonathan Rickert
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Political humor was an important aspect of daily life in communist Eastern Europe – – simultaneously an emotional escape valve and cris de coeur. Anti-regime jokes of various sorts were exchanged cautiously, within families and among trusted friends. Some ridiculed communism itself, others Russia/the Soviet Union, and in many cases the local dictator, whoever he was. Others focused on the shortages, hardships, and other privations of daily life. Examples of such political humor often appeared, disappeared, and then reappeared in altered form. Many such jokes prevalent in communist Eastern Europe hopped from country to country and were recycled versions of each other, adapted to the circumstances and personalities wherever they circulated. Where any particular witticism originated was impossible to ascertain, and where it would end up, and in what form, were equally unknowable. Extensive scholarly interest has been paid to such Eastern European humor, including multiple analyses and compendia. The flavor and content of at least some of those works are contained in the title of one such volume, First Prize: Fifteen Years! by C. Banc and A. Dundes. That title is drawn from the following Romanian joke: A competition for the best political joke was announced. Do you know what the first prize was? No. Fifteen years! The joke cleverly encompasses both the risk and “rewards” of indulging in such activity.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Memoir, Soviet Union, and Humor
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

53. Lebanon’s Energy Crisis in Context: Postwar Reconstruction and Political Fragmentation

Author:
Soha Mneimneh
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon has endured Israeli aggression for decades, most recently during the war that began in October 2023, which has completely destroyed seven towns and entire neighborhoods in at least 37 southern villages.1 The war has so far claimed over 4,000 lives, displaced approximately 870,000 people to date, and resulted in the destruction of around 361 buildings in Beirut.2 Beyond war casualties, the aggression has had profound implications for Lebanon’s political and institutional landscape. It has not only weakened Hezbollah’s activity across different locations and sectors (primarily in service delivery) but also reshaped the broader political arena.3 Since the ceasefire in October 2024, other major events have also altered the political landscape. A new president, Joseph Aoun, was elected on 9 January 2025, ending a more than two-year presidential vacuum. This was followed by the appointment of the new prime minister, Nawaf Salam, on 13 January 2025, and the formation of the Lebanese cabinet on 8 February 2025. While some view these changes with cautious optimism, others fear uncertainty, especially when it comes to the pace and outcome of reconstruction. The question that will mostly define the success or failure of this government is its ability to end the war and lead a credible reconstruction process. Reconstruction presents both a critical challenge and a rare opportunity to address Lebanon’s deep-rooted structural inequalities. A primary issue in this context is access to electricity, a basic service that has been unreliable for decades. The energy crisis, already existent, was exacerbated by the recent financial collapse, leaving the formal energy sector unable to provide consistent power to the majority of the Lebanese population.4 Decades of inadequate infrastructure, political paralysis, and economic instability have forced most people to rely on informal, costly, short-lived, and harmful energy sources, primarily neighborhood diesel generators operated by unofficial local providers.5 As stakeholders begin yet another postwar reconstruction process, they will need to address a complex web of governance issues, implement inclusive energy policies, and establish proper financing mechanisms to ensure a just and resilient energy transition. A primary financial enabler in this process is international aid.6 While foreign aid and loans offer an opportunity, past experiences have shown that without structural reform, visionary and strategic reconstruction, transparent national oversight, and clear mechanisms of accountability, aid risks reinforcing political clientelism and social inequalities rather than enabling equitable development.7 There is a need to challenge this reality by relying on energy-efficient reconstruction processes that integrate renewable energy into urban environments in order to reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports. This paper explores the challenges and opportunities for energy recovery in Lebanon’s postwar reconstruction by examining three interrelated components: (1) the actors involved in the energy sector and their fragmented strategies that influence energy provision across three timeframes (before the crises, during the current emergency, and in the near future); (2) energy-related planning regulations, with a focus on how existing and proposed laws shape the reconstruction of energy systems and the potential adoption, or hinderance, of sustainable technologies; and (3) the political economy and financial gaps in the current recovery process. It argues that Lebanon’s energy recovery must move beyond short-term fixes and rebuilding as was, and adopt a comprehensive reform agenda that integrates governance, legal, economic, and financial reforms.
Topic:
Politics, Reconstruction, Energy Crisis, Fragmentation, and Power Sector
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

54. Energy Transition Challenges in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region

Author:
Diana Kaissy
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Iraq faces formidable obstacles in shifting to a cleaner and more equitable energy system. In 2023, Iraq ranked third globally in gas flaring – behind Russia (~59 billion m³) and Iran (20.4 billion m³) – burning roughly 17 billion cubic meters of associated gas, according to the World Bank’s Global Gas Flaring Tracker.1 This flaring not only wastes potential fuel and revenue but also pollutes the air and exacerbates climate change. Most of this flaring involves associated gas produced alongside oil, which could be captured and utilized. Non‑associated flaring is comparatively minor and usually linked to operational upsets, so Iraq’s pervasive flaring is largely avoidable if policy and infrastructure gaps are addressed. A significant portion – around 20% of Iraq’s flared gas – comes from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region (KRG) in the north.2 Unlike in remote deserts, many KRG oil fields are near towns and villages, meaning local populations are heavily exposed. An estimated 1.19 million Iraqis (mostly in the north) live within 1 km of multiple flare sites, suffering elevated health risks​.3 These conditions underscore the environmental justice issues at stake: rural and minority communities near oil sites bear the brunt of pollution and health impacts​. In fact, Iraq flares more gas than it imports from Iran to power its electricity grid, underscoring an energy‑security paradox: the country wastes domestic gas while relying on costly imports. Beyond flaring, Iraq’s broader energy transition challenge stems from heavy dependence on oil for revenues and power generation, weak infrastructure for gas capture, and decades of conflict and underinvestment. Iraq’s national grid is underpowered and often supplemented by diesel generators, while renewable energy is only beginning to be introduced. Crucially, political fragmentation between Baghdad’s federal government and the KRG has led to disjointed energy policies. However, deeper than this territorial divide is the closed nature of Iraq’s energy policymaking. Decisions about oil and gas are dominated by a narrow set of actors with minimal parliamentary oversight and no comprehensive legal framework, creating a “limited access order” that hampers investment, transparency and regulatory enforcement across both federal Iraq and the KRG. This briefing focuses on Iraq’s main energy transition challenges and the power dynamics impeding progress, with a special lens on the KRG. It also examines implications for gas flaring policy and offers recommendations – including engaging regional coalitions – to advance a just energy transition, one that is fair, inclusive, and transparent.
Topic:
Environment, Politics, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

55. Divine Resistance: Hezbollah’s Theocratic Duality of Politics and Military Power

Author:
Sheikh Arslan Zafar and Humera Akhtar
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Backing Hezbollah and deterring Israel," shields are viewed as protecting Lebanon’s interests and security. The "Resistance's Arms" Discourse: Hezbollah has effectively positioned its armed faction not as an uncontrolled militia, but as an essential national defense entity against Israel. This study examines how Hezbollah's actions, influenced by Iran’s Wilayat al-Faqih doctrine, shape Lebanon’s security and political landscape. By aligning with Iran’s regional goals, Hezbollah defends Lebanon while promoting Shiite interests, including military activities near Beirut. The research explores Hezbollah’s multifaceted role as both a political party and an armed organization supported by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and its impact on Lebanon's sovereignty and regional stability. It also looks at Hezbollah’s evolution from a resistance movement to a significant political force. This study also discusses Hezbollah’s dual role and how Iran's leadership influences its actions, aiming to protect Lebanon and support the broader Shiite cause. Theocratic political theory is used as a framework to analyze Hezbollah’s connection with Iran and its influence on Lebanon's internal stability. Ultimately, the study recommends including Hezbollah in Lebanon’s political and military structures to reduce potential instability while balancing national unity and regional interests.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Hezbollah, Theocracy, and Shiite
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Lebanon

56. Is Liberalism as an Ideological Assumption Over?

Author:
Marlène Laruelle
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Much ink has been spilled debating the implications of the results of the U.S. November 2024 elections. In Europe, following the June 2024 elections, more than 40 far-right parties hold seats in the European Parliament, a growth from 25 the previous term. The far right also managed to increase its vote share in nine out of the 13 European states that held legislative elections in 2024.1 Compared to a decade ago, analysts understand that these events are not exceptional mo- ments, glitches in the system, or accidents of history. Nonetheless, many still prioritize short-term explanations such as, in the United States’ case, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ weak campaign performance, high levels of inflation, and unprecedented influxes of irregular migration. Others attribute far-right victories to either morally unacceptable sentiments such as racism and xenophobia or brainwashing via fake news and social media propaganda—whether through X (in the United States’ case and in Germany’s February 2025 elections)2 or TikTok (as in Romania’s first round of presidential elections).3 In both cases, these explanations provide moral reassurance: only citizens with bad intentions, victims of propaganda, or those unable to appreciate lib- eralism’s idealistic goals could vote for the far right. However, these arguments are insufficient in understanding the wave of rejection that societal order seems to be arousing amongst citizens. If one thinks that Donald Trump won only because his voters are systemic racists or susceptible to fake news, then one does not see that he may have won because his political program spoke to a multiracial coalition of blue-collar and white-collar voters and resonated with a growing number of Hispanics and young African American men.4 Our interpretation of Trump’s victory impacts the search for solutions: in the first scenario, the Democrats are not held responsible for their defeat; in the second, they must engage in a deep rethinking of their political platform. Far-right electoral gains are no accidents of history. Illiberal leaders and parties have expanded electorally worldwide in many countries beyond the United States and Europe in varying cultural contexts, such as in Turkey, India, the Philippines, and El Salvador. This suggests that the explanation for their success must be found in structural transformations of our socioeconomic and political landscape, not in one-off sets of issues or grievances. To truly understand the rise of illiberalism, citizens and activists anxious to defend liberal demo- cratic principles must analyze these broader systemic evolutions be- fore discussing what they mean for our vision of liberalism. They should grasp why these systemic challenges have so far been more successfully addressed, electorally speaking, by the right than by the left. The main argument of this paper is that liberalism’s cultural hegemony is over, and those defending liberal principles must recognize that they are now in genuine competition with other political ideologies. To this end, they must abandon the notion that liberalism represents “common sense,” while its op- ponents embody “nonsense.” Ironically, this very contrast is mirrored by illiberal voters, who see their recent electoral success as a return to politics grounded in reality and opposing liberal “wokeness.”
Topic:
Politics, Culture, Elections, Ideology, Voting, and Liberalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

57. Purple Rain: Temperamental Politics and Budgets in Arizona

Author:
Max Goshert, Janica Murphy, Samira Amin, Mo Abouelenin, and Amber Chisholm
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Arizona’s evolving political landscape has become a key factor in its fiscal outlook. Once a solid Republican stronghold, the state has shifted to swing status, as seen in President Joe Biden's narrow 0.3% margin win in the 2020 election and a closely divided state legislature. Strong economic growth in prior years led to FY23 General Fund revenues being revised upwards from $15.9 billion to $17.9 billion. Despite this, declining tax revenues and increased spending, particularly on a universal school voucher program, created a projected $1.71 billion deficit for FY25. The state's Republican-led legislature implemented a 2.5% flat income tax and expanded school vouchers, significantly impacting revenue. To address the deficit, the FY25 budget, finalized at $16.8 billion, included cuts to many programs, most notably a $430 million reduction in the Arizona Water Infrastructure and Financing Authority. The political status quo remained consistent after the 2024 election, where Republicans won a marginal gain in both chambers of the state legislature, Democrats kept control of the U.S. Senate seat up for reelection, and the U.S. House seats remained at 6–3 for Republicans and Democrats, respectively. This report examines the fiscal trajectory, proposed tax policy changes, and political state driving Arizona’s FY25 budget negotiations.
Topic:
Politics, Budget, Fiscal Policy, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, Arizona, and United States of America

58. Tunisia’s Transformation Into a Transit Hub: Illegal Migration and Policy Dilemmas

Author:
Hamza Meddeb and Fakhreddine Louati
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Due to structural economic, climate, and social crises in the Sahel, Tunisia has emerged as a key transit point for sub-Saharan African migrants and asylum seekers aiming to reach Europe. This has fueled a migration economy in Tunisia. Caught between Tunisia’s attempts to leverage migration to pressure the European Union (EU) on the one hand and the EU’s securitization of migration on the other, sub-Saharan African migrants find themselves trapped in a complex web of challenges.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Reform, European Union, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

59. The Violent Politics of Bangladesh’s 2024 Elections

Author:
Pearl Pandya
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Elections in Bangladesh have historically been marked by violence between the country’s two dominant political parties, the ruling Awami League (AL) and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The upcoming elections scheduled for 7 January are no different. Violence has already been on the rise in the months leading up to the elections, in which Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will seek re-election for the fourth consecutive term. Much of the recent unrest has centered around concerns about the AL’s ability to hold a free and fair election. The BNP has called for the formation of a neutral caretaker government to administer the elections. The AL has rejected this demand, giving way to increased BNP-led demonstration events1 that have often turned violent. The BNP’s decision to boycott the elections, motivated by its misgivings over the election process, suggests that the results are likely to be contested, increasing the risk of post-electoral violence. As the AL looks set to hold onto power, violence within the party is also cause for concern. Competition for power among AL factions can be seen in post-election periods as rivals seek party and government appointments.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Violence, Political Parties, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

60. Red herrings: A model of attention-hijacking by politicians

Author:
Margot Belguise
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Politicians often use “red herrings” to distract voters from scandals. When do such red herrings succeed? I develop a model in which an incumbent runs for re-election and potentially faces a scandal. Some incumbents enjoy telling “tales” (attention-grabbing stories) while others use tales to distract voters from the scandal. Multiple equilibria can arise: one with a norm of tale-telling in which red herrings succeed and another with a norm against tale-telling in which they fail. Increased media attention to tales has a non-monotonic effect, facilitating red herrings at low attention levels, but serving a disciplinary function at high levels.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, and Media
Political Geography:
Global Focus