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281. Playing with Fire: Pitfalls of Egypt's Security Tactics

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
A string of armed attacks on military personnel and buildings in cities of the Nile Valley and Sinai Peninsula are not surprising given the Egyptian army’s past and present crackdown on villages and communities in northern Sinai. This paper examines armed attacks on these areas, questions why and how armed attacks reached the Valley, explores actors behind the attacks and projects what these attacks mean for Egypt’s security and political future.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Authoritarianism, Political stability, and Coup
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

282. Globalization, Peace & Stability, Governance, and Knowledge Economy

Author:
Voxi Amavilah, Simplice A. Asongu, and Antonio Rodríguez Andrés
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
A previous analysis of the impact of formal institutions on the knowledge economy of 22 MiddleEastern and Sub-Sahara African countries during the 1996-2010 time period concluded that formal institutions were necessary, but inadequate, determinants of the knowledge economy. To extend that study, this paper claims that globalization induces peace and stability, which affects governance and through governance the knowledge economy. The claim addresses one weakness of previous research that did not consider the effects on the knowledge economy of globalization. We model the proposition as a three-stage process in four hypotheses, and estimate each hypothesis using robust estimators that are capable of dealing with the usual statistical problems without sacrificing economic relevance and significance. The results indicate that globalization has varying effects on peace and stability, and peace and stability affect governance differently depending on what kind of globalization induces it. For instance, the effects on governance induced by globalization defined as trade are stronger than those resulting from globalization taken to be foreign direct investment. Hence, we conclude that foreign direct investment is not a powerful mechanism for stimulating and sustaining the knowledge economy in our sample of countries. However, since globalization-induced peace and stability have both positive and negative effects on governance simultaneously, we also conclude that while the prospect for knowledge economy in African countries is dim, it is still realistic and attainable as long as these countries continue to engage in the kind of globalization that does indeed induce peace and stability. We further conclude that there is a need for a sharper focus on economic and institutional governance than on general governance as one possible extension of this paper.
Topic:
Globalization, Governance, Political stability, Peace, and Knowledge Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Global Focus, and Sub-Saharan Africa

283. Half Lives: A Preliminary Assessment of China’s Nuclear Warhead Life Extension and Safety Program

Author:
Ian Easton and Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Nuclear warheads and their associated delivery vehicles (ballistic and cruise missiles) represent the most powerful and potentially destabilizing weapons in the world today. While rapid advances in information and communications technology have endowed conventional weapons systems with the “intelligence” and precision to take on a greater number of strategic missions–for example targeting aircraft carrier groups and critical command nodes–nuclear weapons remain the sine qua non of deterrence. Indeed, while every nation’s leadership fears war to some degree, the threat of war is only truly horrific for a leader who faces an enemy armed with nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Communications, Weapons, and Political stability
Political Geography:
China and Asia

284. Kosovo Security Barometer - Third Edition

Author:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The third edition of the Kosovo Security Barometer continuous to serve as a platform for providing reliable and accurate data that can meaningfully inform public on the current situation. The report will provide an overview of people’s perceptions about security in Kosovo, citizens’ perceptions on security institutions (Police, EULEX, KFOR, KIA, KSF, Customs, MIA, MFA) and judicial institutions, the nature of external and internal threats, perception on corruption, the legitimacy of the Government and Assembly of Kosovo, political stability and regional cooperation and Prishtina-Belgrade dialogue. The Barometer was carried out during October 2013 through face-to-face interviews conducted around Kosovo, and using a questionnaire developed by KCSS. Sampling, piloting and interviews were conducted by KCSS team involving 30 researchers in the field and additional 10 researchers engaged on supervising the field researchers, and monitoring the data processing. A national sample was drawn that is representative of the Kosovo population that is 18 years and above and includes 1119 households of all ethnicities.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Regional Cooperation, Public Opinion, Political stability, and Survey
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

285. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Spring 2012

Author:
J. Peter Pham, Erich Wagner, Robert G. Angevine, and Kenneth H. Williams
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
What should be the role of the United States and other foreign powers in unstable areas of the world? gis question, which is as pertinent as it has ever been, may seem like an issue for presidents, cabinet members, and flag officers—and it is—but it also affects the military and foreign policy establishments all the way down to ground level, where junior officers, enlisted troops, and State Department/USAID personnel are engaging the local populations. Indeed, those of us who have served in a military or civilian capacity among the people in Iraq or Afghanistan will recognize many similarities in the challenges that we faced with those Robert Angevine describes that confronted the U.S. Army in the Philippines a century ago.ge author quotes one Constabulary officer who noted that he “had to know not only military work, but he also had to be an executive as well as a tactful politician.” It is also important to know the local culture, including landmark historical events and how the memory of them continues to have impact. In his article on the Battle of Maiwand, fought by the British in Afghanistan in 1880, Erich Wagner quotes our current commanding officer with Marine Corps Combat Development Command, Lieutenant General Richard P. Mills, as saying that the Afghans regularly reminded him in 2010 of “the Maiwand War”and of how their ancestors had made Afghanistan the “the graveyard of empires.” As Wagner writes, and vividly details in his piece, “the memory of those times is still alive in the community.” Instability has been the order of the day in Somalia for decades now, but Peter Pham’s article offers at least some hope from the northern part of that country, which is known as Somaliland. Pham, who is widely recognized as one of the leading experts on the region and is a senior advisor to U.S. Africa Command, posits that lessons from the Somaliland experience may be applicable in other countries.
Topic:
History, Armed Forces, Political stability, Conflict, and State Building
Political Geography:
Britain, Africa, and Somalia

286. Mission Revolution: The U.S. Military and Stability Operations

Author:
Jennifer Morrison Taw
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
Defined as operations other than war, stability operations were, for the entire history of the United States military, considered a dangerous distraction if not an outright drain on combat resources. Nonetheless, American troops are now deployed far more often for stability operations than for conventional war. In 2005, the U.S. Department of Defense reversed its traditional stance on stability operations, elevating them to a primary mission alongside more conventional offense and defense goals. Jennifer Morrison Taw argues that this action represented a revolutionary change with significant implications on U.S. foreign policy. Through a detailed examination of the accompanying adjustments to U.S. military doctrine and adaptations in force preparation, Taw connects the elevation of stability operations to the far-reaching, overly ambitious American preoccupation with managing international stability. She also shows how the DOD's decision reinforced and exacerbated domestic politics that already had reduced civilian agencies' capabilities while fostering an unhealthy overreliance on the military.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Political stability
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus
Publication Identifier:
9780231526821
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

287. Foreign Aid a Critical Component of Mideast Stability

Author:
Robert Brada
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
A few weeks ago I found myself on the outskirts of a remote village in the Jordanian desert. One of my travel companions received a call on his mobile phone. It was a member of Jordan’s security services, saying we should call if we needed anything as they would have people nearby at all times. It was then I began to realize that the small projects I had come to observe had a global impact. I am not a traditional international relief worker. I grew up in a small town in Kansas, became a corporate finance lawyer, worked on the management team of a movie studio, and ran a startup healthcare services company. Perhaps this corporate background contributed to my skeptical view of the value of the U.S. spending overseas during bad economic times. During my two-week trip to Jordan and Iraq, however, I witnessed first-hand how seemingly minor development programs can help support stability and international values. Although Jordan projects an image of tourist-friendly calm, its location between Israel, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia makes it a strategically important player in any Middle East peace process – or conflict. All its borders, except those with Israel, are porous, and the country has received over 750,000 Iraqi refugees since 2003. Recently, over 140,000 refugees crossed from Syria as that country’s conflict has escalated. In the small town of Mafraq in northern Jordan, I met a Syrian woman and her three daughters who had fled their home the morning after Syrian forces killed all of the males in the home next door, including children. She has had no contact with her husband and sons since she left. The Jordanian people and government have responded compassionately, absorbing refugees into their homes and neighborhoods. A consequence of this kindness, however, is that communities are finding themselves overburdened. Jordan’s severe water shortage leaves most areas with running water only two days a week. Doubling or tripling the size of households turns water rationing from inconvenience into impossibility. The same is true for sewage, waste management, and public infrastructure as antiquated systems are pushed past their capacity. Even the free market works against the Jordanian hosts, as the swelling refugee population drives up the price of housing, food, and other commodities, while pushing down wages.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Political stability, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Jordan

288. A Pocket of Stability: Understanding Somaliland

Author:
Daniel Forti
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This paper provides a comprehensive examination of Somaliland’s unusual development and current standing as a self-declared sovereign nation. Unlike Somalia, a state devastated by a perpetual twenty-year conflict, Somaliland boasts a growing civil society along with a relatively vibrant democracy and accountability to the Rule of Law. Since 1991, the region has become a pocket of security and stability, in absence of formal recognition, by creating government and societal institutions that strongly suit the values and needs of its people.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Democracy, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Africa and Somaliland

289. Debunking Chinese Thinking on a Peace Agreement and Peace Regime for the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Jaewoo Choo
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
At least for the time being, China’s foreign policy goals are focused on the preservation of the status quo in its peripheries, including the Korean Peninsula. China sees its long absence of war or military conflict as evidence of the well-preserved peace and stability of its security environment. Conversely, it conceives that this status quo has been conducive to achieving its foremost national goal, economic modernization. It continues to strive to improve its security environment within the equilibrium. There seems to be one growing exception, however, in the case of the Korean Peninsula, however. China’s support for the replacement of the Korean War Armistice with a peace agreement and a peace regime is in stark contrast to its status quo policy. Given China’s long advocacy as a peace-loving nation, it seems only logical that putting an end to Korea’s current technically-at-war status would make sense. Beijing has its own reasoning and logic behind its supportive call for a new peace arrangement on the peninsula. A confrontational international structure around the peninsula, for instance, can only be overcome by a peace agreement, a precondition necessitated by the Armistice. Hence, a peace agreement before normalization of this structure is perceived to be path-dependent. However, serious challenges arise if a call for a peace agreement and regime is put forth without much thinking regarding the strategic implications. Chinese scholars and experts tend to overlook this factor in their appraisal. On the surface, theirs is a just and righteous call that a peace agreement must replace the Armistice. It is critical to the installment of “perpetual peace” on the peninsula. It is also logical that such peace can be guaranteed by forging a peace regime, an assurance mechanism that will supplement the “peace” endowed by the agreement. If Chinese claims are correct, why are they not embraced by others? There must be something wrong in what the Chinese widely believe. Although their analysis of the imperatives for a peace agreement and regime is undeniable, as we shall see, their call for a peace agreement and regime still remains contradictory to the status quo orientation of their mother country’s foreign policy. Moreover, their work seems to lack insight regarding the strategic and structural implications of the full implementation of such a peace arrangement. Furthermore, Chinese pundits must define the meaning of a new peace in a more articulated way in the context of a new regional order to effectively defend their nation’s support for a peace agreement and regime.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Political stability, and Peace
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

290. Regionalization of the Turkish FOreign Policy

Author:
Özdem Sanberk
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
If Turkey focuses on full accession to the European Union, it would progress in political, social and economic areas, which would certainly bring about encompassing peace, stability, prosperity and democratic advances throughout the Middle East.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, European Union, Political stability, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East