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261. Will China Allow North Korea to Collapse?

Author:
Gordon G. Chang
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Relations between China and North Korea have deteriorated during the last year, but Beijing has not fundamentally changed its approach toward its neighbor because that approach serves vital Chinese interests. If the regime of Kim Jong Un should look like it might fail—and there are several reasons why it could—Beijing’s leaders will undoubtedly do all they can to effect a rescue. The Chinese state, however, is not as stable or as capable as it appears, and it may not be in a position to lend needed assistance.
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

262. Detecting Cultural Factors in Conflictive Scenarios of Intervention: Military and Local Actors in Interaction

Author:
Marien Duran and Antonio Avalos
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The integration of cultural elements into the operational planning process is a complex task that requires practical and theroretical tools for a wide comprehension of the context to help solve the problem. This article shows the results of an empirical research which presents conflicting cultural factors as the starting point for the construction of mediating structures. The main result of our research is a partial cognitive structure, a system of ideas, represented in a template listing the basic conflictive factors at the tactical level that military could find in the development of their tasks. The template is also a valuable aid to design military training curricula and to be applied to any post-conflict stability operation in complex environments resulting from irregular or asymmetric conflicts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Culture, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Political stability, and Local
Political Geography:
Global Focus

263. Fragile States Index 2016 – Annual Report

Author:
J. J. Messner and Nate Haken
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Democracy, Refugee Crisis, Fragile States, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Global Focus

264. Challenges Facing Taiwan in the South China Sea

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
In principle, Taiwan’s sovereignty claims and territorial holdings in the South China Sea should be viewed by the U.S. as an asset. However, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been able to exploit the fundamentally flawed bilateral relationship between Washington and Taipei to convince many observers that Taiwan has no positive role to play in the dispute. This paper will examine the many challenges facing Taiwan in the South China Sea. It will first lay out some of the reasons why the South China Sea matters to Taiwan’s interests. Next, it will assess the PRC threat to Taiwanese interests at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels of analysis. Finally, the paper will conclude with an outline of areas where the U.S. and Taiwan could cooperate to impose costs on PRC expansionism and better ensure regional peace and stability.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea

265. Corruption and Political Stability in Post-Conflict Countries: Its There Really a Trade-Off?

Author:
Franziska Perlick
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
The assumption of a trade-off between the levels of corruption and political stability in a post-conflict situations is not new to the peacebuilding debate, but expert opinions deviate significantly on how the former may affect the latter. The study at hand asks whether corruption is a significant obstacle for peacebuilding in post-conflict societies, or might even have a stabilizing effect. The concept of Hybrid Political Orders is used to model post-conflict societies. The basic assumptions of the literature analysis of central concepts of peacebuilding and corruption are tested against the case study of Sierra Leone for the period 2002-2012. Assuming different concepts of factors of political stability, such as legitimacy, it becomes clear that the effect of corruption on political stability can vary significantly, depending on the socio-economic and socio-cultural context, and is not necessarily destabilizing.
Topic:
Corruption, Political stability, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Sierra Leone

266. Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy: Spring 2015

Author:
Jennifer Rowland, Nada Zohdy, Brian Katulis, Michael Wahid Hanna, Faysal Itani, Muhammad Y. Idris, Joelle Thomas, Tamirace Fakhoury, Farouk El-Baz, Kheireddine Bekkai, Amira Maaty, and Sarah McKnight
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Our Spring 2015 volume captures the troubling developments of the past year in the Middle East and North Africa. In 2014, the Syrian conflict that has so beguiled the international community spilled over into Iraq, with the swift and shocking rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). ISIS is causing the ever-complex alliances in the region to shift in peculiar ways. In Iraq, US airstrikes provide cover for Iranian-backed militias fighting ISIS; while in Yemen, the United States supports a Saudi intervention against a different Iranianbacked armed group that has taken control of the Yemeni capital. Meanwhile, simmering political disputes in Libya escalated into a full-blown civil war, sparking concern in neighboring Egypt, where the old authoritarian order remains in control despite the country’s popular revolution. The Gulf countries contemplate their responses to record-low oil prices, continuing negotiations between the United States and Iran, and the threat of ISIS. And Tunisia remains one of the region’s only bright spots. In November, Tunisians voted in the country’s first free and fair presidential elections. This year’s Journal brings new analysis to many of these complex events and broader regional trends. We begin with the positive: an exclusive interview with former Tunisian Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa. In this year’s feature articles: Brian Katulis zooms out to assess the Obama administration’s record in the Middle East over the past six years; Michael Wahid Hanna refutes the notion that the Iraqi and Syrian borders will need to be redrawn as a result of ISIS’ takeover; and Faysal Itani analyzes the US coalition’s strategy to defeat ISIS, arguing that it cannot succeed without empowering Sunni civilians. Muhammed Idris and Joelle Thomas turn to economics in an assessment of the United Arab Emirates’ efforts to go green. Tamirace Fakhoury points out a blind spot in the study of the Middle East and North Africa: how large diaspora communities affect political dynamics in their home countries. Farouk El-Baz takes us to Egypt, where he proposes a grand economic plan to pull the country out of poverty and set it on a path toward longterm growth. From Egypt, we move west to the oft-neglected country of Algeria, where Kheireddine Bekkai argues for more inclusive education policies on national identity. Finally, Amira Maaty comments on the region’s desperate need for robust civil societies, while Sarah McKnight calls for improvements in Jordan’s water policies.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Development, Environment, Migration, History, Natural Resources, Social Movement, Islamic State, Economy, Political stability, Arab Spring, Military Intervention, Identities, and Diversification
Political Geography:
Middle East, Algeria, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and United States of America

267. How to Bring Stability to Bahrain

Author:
Brian Dooley
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
Washington needs a new strategy to help bring stability and reform to Bahrain. Although the smallest country in the Middle East, Bahrain exemplifies several of the major challenges for U.S. policy in the region: Sectarian tensions exploited by ISIS and other Sunni extremists and by Shi’adominated Iran to fuel conflict Economic troubles linked to public corruption and an over-reliance on oil revenues, exacerbated by sharply falling oil prices Stalled political reform leaving the root grievances of large scale public protests unresolved De facto U.S. support for an authoritarian status quo through a government that fails to deliver good governance and continues to deny basic rights and freedoms to its people, while courting support from Russia and other U.S. rivals Falling public support for the United States Major military assets, in Bahrain’s case the basing of the U.S. Fifth Naval Fleet, threatened by protracted instability
Topic:
Imperialism, Oil, Religion, Military Strategy, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Bahrain

268. Defying Gravity: Working Toward a Regional Strategy for a Stable Middle East

Author:
Ross Harrison
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In this MEI Policy Paper, Ross Harrison asserts that a new regional order is emerging out of the conflicts of the Middle East. The relationships among the pillars of this order--Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran--are crucial, as they will largely determine "whether the future of the Middle East will be a continuation of the current chaos and destruction or a more positive transition toward stability and prosperity." Harrison argues that global powers must concentrate on creating conditions conducive to cooperation among the pillars.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

269. Ukraine’s relations with the EU and Russia: Why geopolitics and domestic reforms are linked

Author:
Iryna Solonenko
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
This paper discusses Ukraine’s choice between maintain relations with the EU and Russia, a choice that is not merely a foreign policy choice or a choice between two integration models. Rather, it represents a choice between two normative orders or two different value systems. If Ukraine succeeds in pursuing the European model and breaking away from its tradition of a “captured state,” Russian leverage in Ukraine will also diminish. Therefore, undertaking this transformation is of crucial – if not existential – importance for Ukraine. The very survival of Ukraine’s statehood will depend on it.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

270. The Notion of Stability in a Changing Climate & Environment of the MENA Region

Author:
Katarína Hazuchová
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
It has been only roughly four decades since the environmental securities in the Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) region has increasingly gained prominence. On one hand, water scarcity and on the other hand climate change, are threatening fragile social, ecological resilience and economic stability in a region already stricken by turmoil and violence.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Political stability, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa