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1061. Iraq's Nascent Nuclear Doctrine: Insights from a Captured Document

Author:
Norman Cigar
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During Operation Desert Storm, U.S. forces captured several million Iraqi military documents. Among these was one titled "The Operational Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction; Volume 2; Part 2; Foundations for the Use of Nuclear Weapons in War." The manual was published in July 1988 by the Ministry of Defense and bears the approving signature of then-chief of staff Lt. Gen. Nizar al-Khazraji. As such, it represents official Iraqi thinking on the topic, providing the most detailed description of how Baghdad might use nuclear weapons if it were to acquire them. The existence of the manual indicates that the Iraqi military was thinking ahead to a time when Iraq would have nuclear weapons, and that it was preparing to integrate such weapons into its arsenal and its overall military doctrine
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1062. Addressing the North Korea Nuclear Challenge

Author:
Michael H. Armacost, Daniel I. Okimoto, and Gi-Wook Shin
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
North Korea's renewed bid for nuclear weapons poses an urgent, serious foreign policy challenge to the United States. The current situation—though it bears a resemblance to the events of 1993–1994—is far more dangerous and difficult. North Korea has developed longer-range ballistic missiles; South Korea's growing nationalism has put its U.S. relations on shakier ground; and the United States is distracted by the wars on terrorism and for regime change in Iraq.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Palestine

1063. New Priorities in South Asia

Author:
Frank G. II Wisner, Nicholas Platt, and Marshall M. Bouton
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
South Asia may be halfway around the globe from the United States, but in the age of the Internet and globalization, what happens there—as the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda tragically underscored—can affect all Americans. The challenge to U.S. policy over the medium term (through 2010) is to design and implement a stable and sustained approach that will solidify bilateral ties with three of the key countries of the region—India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan—and give the United States an opportunity to influence major regional developments. This report assesses the strengths and weaknesses of India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and recommends how U.S. policy can best take advantage of the opportunities while addressing the dangers that they present. Success in dealing with South Asia will require sustained and highlevel attention, sensitive diplomacy, a realistic view of what is possible, and, especially with Pakistan and Afghanistan, investment of substantial resources.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and India

1064. Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The announcement on 21 October 2003 of an agreement between Iran on the one hand and Britain, France and Germany on the other, is an important and welcome step in resolving the controversy surrounding Tehran's nuclear program. But it would be wrong to assume that it ends it. The challenge now is to use the breathing space provided by the agreement to tackle the questions – about its implementation, the future of Iran's uranium enrichment activities and Iran's own security concerns – that, for the time being, it has deferred.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:
Britain, Iran, France, Arabia, and Germany

1065. North Korea: A Phased Negotiation Strategy

Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Time is slipping away for a peaceful resolution of the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and North Korea

1066. Famine and Reform in North Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) or North Korea has been experiencing an ongoing food crisis for more than a decade. A famine in the late 1990s resulted in the deaths of perhaps 600,000 to 1 million people out of a pre-famine population of roughly 22 million. Since then, a combination of humanitarian food aid and development assistance has ameliorated the situation somewhat, but according to the World Food Programme (WFP) and other observers, as of this writing the country is once again on the precipice of another famine.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Non-Governmental Organization, Nuclear Weapons, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, North Korea, and Korea

1067. Stand-off with North Korea: War Scenarios and Consequences

Author:
Colin Robinson and Stephen H. Baker
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
North Korea's military threat and somewhat peculiar approaches to international relations have been a central difficulty in dealing with the isolated regime during the past decade. In the early 1990s, North Korea, formally known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), was expected by many observers to collapse, just as communist regimes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union did.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Asia, North Korea, and Soviet Union

1068. Coercion and Risk-Taking in Nuclear South Asia

Author:
Verghese Koithara
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The partition-bred conflict between India and Pakistan that began in 1947 went into remission in 1971 following India's emphatic victory in war that year. It reemerged in 1989 when serious disaffection in the Kashmir Valley gave Pakistan an opening to promote militancy. This created a dangerous situation because it was about the same time that both Pakistan and India also acquired nuclear weapons. There was a major confrontation between the two countries during March-May 1990. Since then there has been continuous tension with each attempting to coerce the other. In May 1998 both countries carried out several nuclear tests each. A year later, during May-July 1999, the two fought a two-month "limited war" in the Kargil region of Kashmir that caused over 1,200 fatalities. Kargil was a clear effort on Pakistan's part to test the deterrence value of its nuclear weapons. In December 2001 India resorted to an unprecedented military mobilization (Operation Parakram), holding out the clear threat of attacking Pakistan unless the latter stopped its sub-conventional operations.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and India

1069. Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons against Buried Biological Agents

Author:
Michael May and Zachary Haldeman
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
This report describes the results of some calculations on the effectiveness of penetrating nuclear weapons of yield 1 and 10 kilotons against targets containing biological agents. The effectiveness depends in detail on the construction of the bunkers, on how the bio-agents are stored, on the location of the explosions with respect to the bunkers, the bio-agent containers and the surface of the ground, and on the yield of the explosion and the geology of the explosion site. Completeness of sterilization of the bio-agents is crucial in determining effectiveness. For most likely cases, however, complete sterilization cannot be guaranteed. Better calculations and experiments on specific target types would improve the accuracy of such predictions for those targets, but significant uncertainties regarding actual geology, actual target layouts, and knowledge of the position of the explosion with respect to the target would remain. Aboveground effects of the nuclear explosions, all of which would vent to the surface, are estimated. They include intense local radioactivity and significant fallout, air blast, and seismic effects to kilometers distances. It is likely, however, that casualties from those effects would be less than the casualties that would result from the dispersal of large quantities of bio-agents.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

1070. The Bush Administration's Nuclear Strategy and Its Implications for China's Security

Author:
Tian Jingmei
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
Since the Bush administration took office, and especially since excerpts of the Nuclear Posture Review were released, there have appeared in America some heated arguments about the Bush administration's changes to the Clinton administration's nuclear strategy, what consequences these changes would produce, and what influences they would exert on international and regional security. Different people have different views. The purpose of this working paper is to find solutions to these key issues. The effects of the Bush administration's nuclear strategy on China's security are also discussed.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, America, and Asia

1071. Container Security Report

Author:
Michael May, Tonya L. Putnam, and Dean Wilkening
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
During the week of August 18–23, 2002, the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) of the Institute for International Studies (IIS) at Stanford University hosted four summer studies sponsored by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. One of these studies, the Container Security study, examined how to apply existing technology and resources most effectively to prevent the transport of illicit nuclear materials for use in terrorist activities by means of international commercial shipping.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

1072. NATO Nuclear Non-proliferation Policies in a Changing Threat Environment

Author:
Alistair Millar and Morten Bremer Maerli
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
This report summarises the conference “NATO Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policies in a Changing Threat Environment” convened in, Oslo, 12 May 2003. The conference was co-organised by the Fourth Freedom Forum, the Norwegian Atlantic Committee, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. It was co-sponsored by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Norwegian Ministry of Defence and the Ploughshares Foundation.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Climate Change, Government, and Nuclear Weapons

1073. Whose Bomb is it Anyway? Public opinion and perceptions about Nuclear Weapons and Policy in the Post-Explosions Phase in Pakistan

Author:
Haider K. Nizamani
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The Pakistani society is rid with fissures on almost every issue and aspect concerning the nature of political system, nation-building, the meaning of the national identity and the means to ensure it. When it comes to the nuclear issue mid this cacophony and chaos, General Pervez Musharraf asserts that there is complete national consensus on Pakistan's nuclear program. Leaders of Jamaat-E-Islami, the most vocal political party in espousing the cause of nuclear Pakistan, argue that barring few individuals who are against nuclear weapons, the overwhelming majority of Pakistanis consider nuclear weapons essential for the country's security. Is there really a consensus in Pakistan regarding the nuclear option? Have people thought about their country's nuclear weapons program and policy? Have they thought about the likely costs of their country's nuclear program? Do they know who is in the control of the country's nuclear infrastructure? Such questions address the perceptual, doctrinal, command and control, and future dimensions of Pakistani nuclear weapons and policy.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Brazil

1074. Is South Asian Nuclear Politics Different?

Author:
Rajesh Basrur
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The central question before us is whether it is appropriate for South Asians to learn from the US-Soviet experience of the Cold War. This raises other questions: Are the two sets of relationships comparable? Is there in South Asia a "cold war" essentially similar to the Cold War? Should the theoretical lenses we use for both sets be the same? Can we learn from the one about the other? Is the thinking and practice relating to nuclear weapons in the two sets comparable?
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, and Soviet Union

1075. Considering the Options: U.S. Policy toward Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:
Rose Gottemoeller, Ray Takeyh, Danielle Pletka, Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, Dennis Ross, Geoffrey Kemp, Henry Sokolski, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Ladan Boroumand, and Thomas McInerney
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
I'm Patrick Clawson, the Deputy Director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. I would like to thank all of our guests for attending this event today. If I could just take a couple of minutes to explain what our intention is in organizing this event, and then we can plunge right in, after we go around the table and everyone introduces themselves.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

1076. National Missile Defense, Proliferation, Arms Control, Russia, and the United States

Author:
Joshua Handler
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The history of anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defenses is long and controversial. From the late 1990s and until today, what to do about missile defenses and the 1972 ABM Treaty has been one of the central problems in U.S.-Russian relations. Several times the United States and Russia appeared to have been on the verge of a new Cold War over this question. This paper reviews the history of the missile defense debate and offers some observations on a way forward. On balance, it may be best for the international community to downplay the Bush administration's missile defense plans and instead focus on promoting diplomatic solutions to the missile proliferation problem. Moreover, the international community should examine the possibilities of banning long-range ballistic missiles. This would make U.S. plans for a national missile defense (NMD) redundant, while at the same time improving international security in general.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

1077. The Future of Russia: The Nuclear Factor

Author:
Oleg Bukharin
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
Two factors were of critical significance in shaping the international peace and security agenda after the Cold War: the emergence of nuclear security and proliferation dangers in the wake of the Soviet collapse, and the unprecedented level of cooperation between Russia and other countries to address these problems. As a result of cooperative international and Russia's domestic efforts, important progress has been made in recent years in reducing nuclear arsenals, protecting Russia's nuclear materials, and preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons expertise from Russia. Much work, however, remains to be done.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia

1078. NATO Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policies in a Changing Threat Environment

Author:
Morten Bremer Maerli (ed) and Allistair Millar(ed)
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This report summarises the conference “NATO Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policies in a Changing Threat Environment” convened in , Oslo, 12 May 2003. The conference was co-organised by the Fourth Freedom Forum, the Norwegian Atlantic Committee, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. It was co-sponsored by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Norwegian Ministry of Defence and the Ploughshares Foundation.
Topic:
NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Norway and Oslo

1079. Nuclear Dimensions of the Iraqi Crisis

Author:
Morten Bremer Maerli
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In accordance with Resolution 1441, unanimously passed by the UN Security Council, Iraq on November 7th, 2002, submitted a declaration of its activities concerning weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Copies of the declaration were forwarded to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and later to the permanent members of the Security Council. The declaration described the various methods used by Iraq in trying to produce nuclear material suitable for weapons, as well as the many sites involved in the nuclear program. In the nearly 12,000-page document Iraq claimed that it had no current WMD programs. However, intelligence analysts from the United States and other nations immediately began to scrutinize the document, and senior US officials quickly rejected the claims made by Iraq.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

1080. New Challenges in Missile Proliferation, Missile Defense, and Space Security

Author:
James Clay Moltz
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Although missiles, missile defense technology, and space issues are intricately related, most policy analysis tends to treat each in a separate category. This tendency causes policymakers to miss the linkages among them and the overlap in the issues that affect developments in each of the other sectors. For this reason, four organizations—the Mountbatten Centre of the University of Southampton, the Simons Centre of the University of British Columbia, the U.N. Center for Disarmament Research in Geneva, and the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) of the Monterey Institute of International Studies—decided to organize a joint international conference that would consciously explore these linkages and treat the relevant issues in an integrated manner, benefiting from the expertise of specialists present from each of the three fields.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Geneva and United Nations