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251. Unleashing the Nuclear Watchdog: Strengthening and Reform of the IAEA

Author:
Trevor Findlay
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The IAEA is the principal multilateral organization mandated by the international community to deal with nuclear issues. Established in 1957 and based in Vienna, it is essentially the nucleus around which all other parts of the global nuclear governance system revolve. The IAEA has attributes and roles that cannot be matched by other organizations, groups of states or individual states, no matter how powerful or influential: It is a standing, multilateral organization, with near universal membership and a science and technology orientation. Its nuclear safeguards system and associated verification activity, including in the service of the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and nuclear weapon-free zones, is unparalleled.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Natural Disasters, Governance, and Nuclear Power

252. The P5 +1, Iran and the Perils of Nuclear Brinkmanship

Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West have had their share of dashed expectations, but even by this peculiar standard, the recent diplomatic roller coaster stands out. Brimming with hope in Istanbul, negotiators crashed to earth in Baghdad, a few weeks later. That was not unexpected, given inflated hopes, mismatched expectations and – most hurtful – conviction on both sides that they had the upper hand. But if negotiations collapse now, it is hard to know what comes next. Washington and Brussels seem to count on sanctions taking their toll and forcing Iran to compromise. Tehran appears to bank on a re-elected President Obama displaying more flexibility and an economically incapacitated Europe balking at sanctions that could boomerang. Neither is likely; instead, with prospects for a deal fading, Israeli pressure for a military option may intensify. Rather than more brinkmanship, Iran and the P5+1 (UN Security Council permanent members and Germany) should agree on intensive, continuous, technicallevel negotiations to achieve a limited agreement on Iran's 20 per cent enrichment.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

253. A History of KEDO 1994-2006

Author:
Joel Wit, Robert Carlin, and Charles Kartman
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
When the South Korean fast ferry Hankyoreh sailed out of North Korean waters into the cold wind and waves of the East Sea on the morning of 8 January 2006, it carried a sad and somber group of South Korean workers, ROK officials, and personnel from the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO). These were all that remained of a decade long multinational effort transforming what in 1994 had been only a paper notion into a modern construction complex of steel and concrete. KEDO's profile on the North Korean landscape was unmistakable, its impact on Pyongyang profound. Yet, real knowledge and understanding about the organization in public and official circles in South Korea, Japan, and the United States was terribly thin at the beginning, and remains so to this day.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Israel, South Korea, and North Korea

254. A Regional Approach to WMD Nonproliferation in the Asia-Pacific

Author:
Togzhan Kassenova
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Asia-Pacific region epitomizes the type of proliferation challenges the international community faces. Globalization turned the region into one of the most important international trade hubs, the home to leading dual-use companies, and the anticipated site of the world's most significant growth in nuclear energy. While those trends are beneficial, they also create new sources of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia

255. The 2012 Presidential Election and American Foreign Policy in the Middle East

Author:
Dov Friedman
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The United States presidential election in November comes at a crucial moment in world affairs, particularly in the Middle East. The year-long uprising in Syria has devolved into civil war. The conflict between Iran, on the one hand, and the U.S., Europe, and Israel, on the other, has not been diffused. The transition of power in Iraq and the planned force reduction in Afghanistan suggest that both countries will continue to experience marked change. The future of relations with new governments in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen must be reshaped.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, America, Europe, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Syria, and Egypt

256. What a Tangled Web: India Caught Between U.S. and Iranian Interests

Author:
Felix Imonti
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
India is caught between the consequences of provoking a United States driven by its fixation upon the Iranian nuclear program and by an Iran that is a major supplier of oil, providing India with access to its vital interests in Afghanistan. The best that the Ind
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

257. Russia's Dangerous Nuclear Legacy

Author:
Richard Rousseau
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The state of Russia’s civilian nuclear power should be cause the entire planet to shudder: Radioactive waste deposal sites are full to the bursting point, and many reactors are outdated and fail to meet even the most basic of safety standards. In short, as one reads between the lines, a new disaster is pending. The now-famous disaster in Japan has taken on tragic proportions and caused massive public health problems. Explosions in Japanese atomic power plants are forcing world experts to question once more the future of nuclear energy, as well as the existing and engineered safety level for various nuclear facilities around the world. Is nuclear energy “outdated”? Is it a source of energy that should be abandoned out of safety concerns? The time has arrived once again for a cold-eyed and careful assessment of nuclear energy security in the world. This is especially pressing in the case of Russia. Currently, 10 plants and 32 nuclear units are online within the territory of the Russian Federation. In considering the larger picture of Russia’s energy generation, inherent risks, and dismal safety record, neither modern nuclear reactors nor uranium-based fuels should be considered as a panacea for the country’s energy development. There are severe limitations in the development of the Russian modern nuclear energy. These are well noted in the scientific community and the mainstream media.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Nuclear Power, Public Health, and Radiological Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

258. Performance of the IR-1 Centrifuge at Natanz

Author:
David Albright and Christina Walrond
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
During the past year, the performance of the IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) has faltered. Although the average monthly production of 3.5 percent low enriched uranium (LEU) has increased to about 150 kg/month, the number of centrifuges needed to produce this LEU has increased disproportionately compared to the previous year. During the last year, Iran has needed 5,860 IR-1 centrifuges to produce this amount of LEU. In the previous year, it would have needed only about 4,820 IR-1 centrifuges to make this quantity of LEU.
Topic:
Nuclear Power, Uranium, and Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP)
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

259. Characterizing the Crisis at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

Author:
David Albright and Christina Walrond
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
During the crisis at the Fukushima nuclear power reactors following the earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011, the Japanese Safety Authority issued ratings for the accident on the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES). Initially, it stated that the incident was a level 4, but it subsequently raised the levels assigned to each reactor, with the majority receiving a level 5. Table 1 indicates the latest ratings issued March 18 by the Japanese authority, where it has parsed the ratings based on accidents at individual reactors. Although the radioactivity is emitted from different reactor buildings, it represents a collective hazard to public health. As such, the accident should be judged comprehensively, not only in component parts. Simply because some aspects of the crisis were not as catastrophic as others does not lessen the overall severity of the accident. ISIS continues to assess that the accident is a level 6. The INES system exists to communicate with the public about the severity and extent of a nuclear event. It is meant to provide a guide, such as the Richter scale for earthquakes, to qualify a nuclear accident. As such, it is important to accurately rate a radiological event in order to afford the public the time and information needed to take necessary precautions.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Nuclear Power, and Fukushima Disaster
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

260. Japan's Nuclear Tremors After Quake

Author:
Jayshree Bajoria
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The devastation wreaked by Japan's worst-ever earthquake and the accompanying tsunami continues to widen. Officials put the death toll at thirty-five hundred (UPI), while some reports say more than ten thousand have died (AP) in Miyagi prefecture alone. Tens of thousands of people remain unaccounted for, and the number of casualties is expected to rise, as large numbers are believed buried under rubble. Millions of survivors struggle without electricity, food, and drinking water. Fears of a nuclear meltdown from reactors damaged by the quake prompted Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan to declare the disaster the country's "most severe crisis" (BBC) since World War II.
Topic:
Natural Disasters and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Japan, East Asia, and Asia

261. Japan Crisis Not As Bad As Chernobyl

Author:
James M. Acton
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As the crisis deepens at the Daiichi reactors in Fukushima, Japanese authorities are working to cool the reactors and limit the spread of radiation. The severity of the situation is both unclear and fluid, since measuring gauges at the Daiichi reactors are unreliable and radiation levels have fluctuated greatly on-site. Speaking on NBC's Today Show, Carnegie's James Acton describes the Fukushima reactor crisis as worse than Three Mile Island, though less disastrous than Chernobyl. During the Chernobyl catastrophe, Acton said, a significant fraction of the reactor core explosively spread into the environment. In Japan, the primary threat comes from the melting of the reactor core, exposing fuel rods to the atmosphere. The amount of radiation that will be released from such melting is unclear, Acton concluded.
Topic:
Natural Disasters and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Japan, East Asia, and Island

262. Brookings Podcast: Japan's Fukushima Disaster Slows Plans for Nuclear Renaissance

Author:
Nathan Hultman
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
As the depth of the disaster at the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan becomes more clear, a long-expected increase in the global use of nuclear power to replace fossil fuels may slow down. Nonresident Fellow Nathan Hultman says planned nuclear plants in the United States and around the world were already suffering from high costs and questions about effective regulation - now, the safety concerns raised by Fukushima may increase opposition to new nuclear projects.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Natural Disasters, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States and Japan

263. US missile defence and China's nuclear posture: Changing dynamics of an offence-defence arms race

Author:
Baohui Zhang
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This article examines the rising prominence of strategic nuclear deterrence in Sino-US relations. China is the only major nuclear power that has been actively expanding its offensive capabilities. Its nuclear modernization has inevitably caused concerns in the United States. The article suggests that China's nuclear programme is driven significantly by US missile defence, which has fundamentally altered the incentive structures for Chinese nuclear deterrence. The article also assesses the latest Chinese perception of US strategic adjustment under the Obama administration and its potential impact on arms control. It reveals that recent measures by the United States to restrain its missile defense could be conducive for achieving a strategic nuclear understanding between the two countries. The article then suggests a number of concrete actions for China and the United States to realize such an understanding.
Topic:
Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States and China

264. Research, Development, and Demonstration for the Future of Nuclear Energy

Author:
Valentina Bosetti, Matthew Bunn, Michela Catenacci, Audrey Lee, and Laura Diaz Anadon
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Dramatic growth in nuclear energy would be required for nuclear power to provide a significant part of the carbon-free energy the world is likely to need in the 21st century or a major part in meeting other energy challenges. This would require increased support from governments, utilities, and publics around the world. Achieving that support is likely to require improved economics and major progress toward resolving issues of nuclear safety, proliferation-resistance, and nuclear waste management. This is likely to require both research, development, and demonstration (RD) of improved technologies and new policy approaches.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and Nuclear Power

265. Recommendations for Limiting Transfers of Enrichment and Reprocessing Technologies

Author:
Fred McGoldrick
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This policy brief is based on Limiting Transfers of Enrichment and Reprocessing Technology: Issues, Constraints, Options , a report of the Project on Managing the Atom.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Foreign Aid, Nuclear Power, and Developing World

266. Israel and Iran's Nuclear Weapon Programme: Roll Back or Containment?

Author:
Massimiliano Fiore
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The latest IAEA Report suggests that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon capability. Preventing the Islamic Republic from becoming nuclear is the most important issue on Israel's agenda, and Jerusalem will do everything it can to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear capability. Considering the limited impact of international sanctions and covert operations, it is therefore possible that at some point in the next 12-15 months Israel's policy-makers and military officials will decide whether or not to act militarily to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. Though the probability of successfully destroying all of Iran's nuclear targets is not very high, Israeli policy-makers and military officials would nevertheless still be extremely satisfied with delaying Iran's nuclear programme. But would it be worth all the trouble it would inevitably unleash? While Israeli fears are understandable, given the heavy costs and poor chances for success of the military option, containment still represents the most sensible policy for Israel.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

267. Why We Still Need Nuclear Power

Author:
Ernest Moniz
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In the years following the major accidents at Three Mile Island in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986, nuclear power fell out of favor, and some countries applied the brakes to their nuclear programs. In the last decade, however, it began experiencing something of a renaissance. Concerns about climate change and air pollution, as well as growing demand for electricity, led many governments to reconsider their aversion to nuclear power, which emits little carbon dioxide and had built up an impressive safety and reliability record. Some countries reversed their phaseouts of nuclear power, some extended the lifetimes of existing reactors, and many developed plans for new ones. Today, roughly 60 nuclear plants are under construction worldwide, which will add about 60,000 megawatts of generating capacity -- equivalent to a sixth of the world's current nuclear power capacity. But the movement lost momentum in March, when a 9.0-magnitude earthquake and the massive tsunami it triggered devastated Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant. Three reactors were severely damaged, suffering at least partial fuel meltdowns and releasing radiation at a level only a few times less than Chernobyl. The event caused widespread public doubts about the safety of nuclear power to resurface. Germany announced an accelerated shutdown of its nuclear reactors, with broad public support, and Japan made a similar declaration, perhaps with less conviction. Their decisions were made easier thanks to the fact that electricity demand has flagged during the worldwide economic slowdown and the fact that global regulation to limit climate change seems less imminent now than it did a decade ago. In the United States, an already slow approach to new nuclear plants slowed even further in the face of an unanticipated abundance of natural gas.
Topic:
Government and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Germany

268. The Future of the Nuclear Suppliers Group

Author:
Mark Hibbs
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After the first Indian nuclear explosive test in 1974, seven nuclear supplier governments were convinced that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) alone would not halt the spread of nuclear weapons—a view that developments in Iran, Iraq, North Korea, and elsewhere would later underscore. The seven governments formed the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), and over the course of more than three decades, it has become the world's leading multilateral nuclear export control arrangement, establishing guidelines that govern transfers of nuclear-related materials, equipment, and technology. Yet, as a voluntary and consensus- based organization of 46 participating governments, the NSG today faces a host of challenges ranging from questions about its credibility and future membership to its relationship to the NPT and other multilateral arrangements.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, India, Asia, and North Korea

269. Iran Sanctions: Preferable to War but No Silver Bullet

Author:
Barbara Slavin
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The broadest and toughest sanctions regime imposed on any country except Libya has not convinced Iran's leaders to abandon a program that appears aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Instead of seeking even more crippling economic penalties—such as an oil embargo—that would fracture the international consensus on Iran, the United States should tighten implementation of measures already in force and enact more sanctions linked to human rights, which have a wide constituency in Europe and demonstrate to the Iranian people that international concerns extend beyond nuclear weapons. The U.S. should also work with its diplomatic partners to craft new proposals that would couple acceptance of limited uranium enrichment with rigorous international monitoring, and encourage China, Iran's major trading partner, to use its leverage in support of nonproliferation.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Iran

270. How Reliable is Intelligence on Iran's Nuclear Program?

Author:
Barbara Slavin
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For a country that has been accumulating nuclear know-how since the Eisenhower administration, Iran has hardly been sprinting toward a bomb. Indeed, repeated prognostications that Tehran was on the verge of becoming a nuclear power have a Chicken Little quality: The sky did not fall over the past decade, and it seems unlikely to do so for the next year or two or three. Still, Iran has made steady progress accumulating the elements and expertise required to make nuclear weapons, and it would be naive and irresponsible to discount what appears to be a cottage industry of piecemeal proliferation.
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

271. Iran Turns to China, Barter to Survive Sanctions

Author:
Barbara Slavin
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Sanctions and China's growing economic clout have altered Iran's trading patterns in ways that are reducing Iran's access to hard currency but may also be insulating the Iranian government and political elite from further US unilateral pressures.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

272. NATO's Nuclear Posture Review: Nuclear Sharing Instead of Nuclear Stationing

Author:
Karl-Heinz Kamp
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
On January 25, 2011 the first meeting of NATO's "Deterrence and Defense Posture Review" (DDPR) took place. This acronym describes a new Committee consisting of the Deputy Permanent Representatives of all NATO member countries, chaired by the NATO Deputy Secretary General Claudio Bisogniero. Its task is no less than to find a new Alliance consensus on the role of nuclear weapons in NATO's overall deterrence and defense posture. DDPR is set to address the crux of the nuclear question - in other words, "how to deter whom with what?"
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

273. Coordinations Under Large Uncertainty: An Analysis of the Fukushima Catastrophe

Author:
Masahiko Aoki and Geoffrey Rothwell
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the impacts of the March 11, 2011, Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami on the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan. These impacts were amplified by a failure of horizontal coordination across plant, corporate, regulatory, and governmental levels, resulting in a nuclear catastrophe, comparable in cost to Chernobyl. Lessons learned include identifying two shortcomings of the typical Japanese horizontal coordination mechanism: instability under a large shock and the lack of defense in depth. The suggested policy response is to harness the power of “open-interface, rule-based modularity” by introducing an independent nuclear safety commission in Japan and an independent system operator to coordinate sellers and buyers on publicly-owned transmission grids.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Japan and Israel

274. Standards Regulations for the Geologic Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Waste

Author:
Rodney C. Ewing
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
This paper draws on my experience as a reviewer of the scientific programs and performance assessments of the geological repository for transuranic waste at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico and the proposed repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. In addition, I have served on numerous committees of the National Research Council that have addressed many aspects of nuclear waste management. These comments and recommendations focus on standards and regulations for licensing a geological repository for SNF and HLW; however, I have added a brief annex on the classification of nuclear wastes. The initial classification of the waste determines the disposal strategy: deep geological disposal vs. near surface disposal.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Science and Technology, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Mexico

275. Nuclear Policy Gridlock in Japan

Author:
Jacques E.C. Hymans
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Prior to the Japanese earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster of March 11, 2011, international observers frequently posed the question of whether Japan might convert its large stockpile of plutonium into nuclear weapons. Since March 11, their main question has shifted to whether Japan will decide to exit from the nuclear energy field altogether.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Natural Disasters, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Japan and Israel

276. FUKUSHIMA CRISIS: UNMONITORED RELEASES Preliminary Assessment of Accident Sequences and Potential Atmospheric Radiation Releases

Author:
David Albright, Paul Brannan, and Christina Walrond
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
instances of unmonitored radiation releases to the atmosphere from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactors. The radiation readings and ground level wind directions are from the TEPCO web site. ISIS could not validate TEPCO’s information, but the data appear adequate to conduct some scoping analysis of the releases. Using this information, ISIS has sought to understand the fate of the releases and determine whether radiation monitoring stations intersected the plume of released radioactive material. We welcome any input. Since March 11, reactor units 1-4 at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant have experienced hydrogen explosions, fires, partial melting of irradiated or “spent” fuel in the reactors, the uncovering and possible burning of irradiated fuel in spent fuel ponds at reactor 4 and perhaps other reactors. Table 1 lists several known accidents that occurred through March 18. These accidents, and perhaps ones that were not noticed or reported, released significant amounts of radiation into the atmosphere that the winds spread widely. They all require greater scrutiny. From an analysis of the limited data on atmospheric releases, ISIS has developed several key findings. The first is that the limited radiation detection capabilities at the Fukushima Daiichi plant following the earthquake and tsunami eliminated the ability to detect, characterize, or track a release of radiation. Many releases went partially or completely undetected by on-site monitoring. None of the releases from accidents were monitored as to their radioactive contents. Although the amount and type of radionuclides in these releases cannot be estimated from the existing on-site monitoring data, the existing data support that the potential for significant radiation doses to off-site population exists, particularly in sectors northwest and southwest of the reactors.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Nuclear Power, Nuclear Safety, Disaster Management, Fukushima Disaster, and Earthquake
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

277. Characterizing the Crisis at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

Author:
David Albright and Christina Walrond
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
During the crisis at the Fukushima nuclear power reactors following the earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011, the Japanese Safety Authority issued ratings for the accident on the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES). Initially, it stated that the incident was a level 4, but it subsequently raised the levels assigned to each reactor, with the majority receiving a level 5. Table 1 indicates the latest ratings issued March 18 by the Japanese authority, where it has parsed the ratings based on accidents at individual reactors. Although the radioactivity is emitted from different reactor buildings, it represents a collective hazard to public health. As such, the accident should be judged comprehensively, not only in component parts. Simply because some aspects of the crisis were not as catastrophic as others does not lessen the overall severity of the accident. ISIS continues to assess that the accident is a level 6.
Topic:
Nuclear Power, Crisis Management, Disaster Management, Fukushima Disaster, and Earthquake
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

278. Asia’s Electric Grid: The Future of Nuclear Power in the Region’s Energy Mix

Author:
Isabella Mroczkowski
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The confluence of a growing economy and increasing standard of living are causing energy demands to increase throughout Asia. Accordingly, Asia is projected to have the world’s highest growth in nuclear power through 2035. In the aftermath of the Fukushima-Daiichi disaster there has been a great deal of uncertainty in the outlook for nuclear energy and by extension the future energy-mix of the region.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Nuclear Power, Economy, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

279. Nükleer Enerji Sahibi Olma Kararını Etkileyen Faktörler ve Türkiye için Tahminler

Author:
Bülent Köksal and Abdülkadir Civan
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
Using data for 67 countries for the period 1980-2005, we analyze to what extent do the decisions of having nuclear power and the share of nuclear energy in total energy use depend on economic, political, social and geographic factors. Our econometric model that takes the selectivity problems of the sample into consideration reveals a positive relationship between per capita real income and the probability of selecting to have nuclear power. This relationship, however, weakens as the level of income further increases. We also find that, the probability of opting for nuclear power continuously increases for Turkey starting from 1990s and becomes approximately 45 per cent by 2007. When we use the new GDP series of Turkish Statistical Institute in our estimations, the estimated probability of selection of nuclear energy for Turkey increases to approximately 60 per cent. Finally, we find that if Turkey had a nuclear power generator today, the share of nuclear energy in total energy would be approximately between 14 to 16 percent.
Topic:
Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Turkey

280. Spin-On for the Renaissance? The Current State of China's Nuclear Industry

Author:
Jing-dong Yuan
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
China's nuclear industry has undergone rapid growth in recent years and is projected to further expand in the coming decades. Accounting for almost 40 percent of all nuclear reactors either under construction or that have been approved globally, the expansion of China's nuclear capacities has largely been driven by increasing demands for energy to support continued economic growth. Constraints include human resources, fuel supply, and the extent to which China can develop indigenous nuclear power capacities. The role of civil-military integration in this industry is yet to be determined partly as a result of the deliberate decision by Beijing to keep its nuclear weapons segment separate from its civilian operations.
Topic:
Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
China and Asia

281. Iran: A View From Moscow

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin and Alexey Malashenko
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Iran's emergence as a rising power is straining its relations with Russia. While many outside observers assume the two countries enjoy a close relationship, in reality it is highly complex. Although Iran and Russia have strong economic and military ties, Moscow is increasingly wary of Tehran's growing ambitions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Tehran, and Moscow

282. "Interview with Robert Baer, Author of The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower"

Author:
Michael Mylrea
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
al Nakhlah
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The ongoing showdown with Iran is one of the greatest US foreign policy challenges of this century. Iran's ambition to become the region's superpower has been bolstered by its large oil and gas supply, Shiites gaining control in Iraq, Hezbollah—an Iranian proxy army—fighting Israel to a standstill, and, its defiant move to become a nuclear power. Bold messages from Iran, such as that it will retaliate against the West and its allies if they try to impede its rise to power, are challenging to interpret.
Topic:
Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Iran

283. Nuclear Energy: Rebirth or Resuscitation?

Author:
Sharon Squassoni
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After several decades of disappointing growth, nuclear energy seems poised for a comeback. Talk of a "nuclear renaissance" includes perhaps a doubling or tripling of nuclear capacity by 2050, spreading nuclear power to new markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and developing new kinds of reactors and fuel-reprocessing techniques. But the reality of nuclear energy's future is more complicated. Without major changes in government policies and aggressive financial support, nuclear power is actually likely to account for a declining percentage of global electricity generation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Middle East and Southeast Asia

284. Turkey's Perspectives on Nuclear Weapons and Disarmament

Author:
Henri J. Barkey
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In principle, Turkey would welcome the global elimination of nuclear weapons. For the current government, the possession of nuclear weapons by other states is a factor that, indirectly at least, reduces Turkey's regional (if not global) aspirations and power. However, in the medium term, it remains deeply ambivalent on the future of nuclear weapons and its own plans regarding nuclear energy and weapons development.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Turkey, and Germany

285. U.S.-China Cooperation on Nuclear Power

Author:
John R. Lyman
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In 2007, the Atlantic Council of the United States (the Council) partnered with the U.S./China Energy and Environment Technology Center (EETC) at Tsinghua and Tulane Universities to hold a series of dialogues to foster cooperation between the United States and China on developing secure and sustainable energy supplies. Over the past several years, the Council and EETC have invited key organizations, experts from industry and government, and representatives from relevant United States (U.S.) and Chinese government agencies to become directly involved in several meetings designed to identify concrete recommendations for increasing official governmental and industry cooperation.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

286. The World Responds to Iran's Elections: An Early Assessment

Author:
Andrew Boyko, Mark Lewis, and Louise Stenfors Virenfeldt
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
As the 2009 Iranian elections came to an end, many states and groups waited with anticipation to see who would lead Iran for the next four years. To the concern of many Western governments, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s second term as president was confirmed by the Guardian Council after a questionable recount. This paper tracks reactions from countries and groups following the election and assesses their possible implications for the future. The damning exchanges between Iran and the West are reaching a level of hostility that bodes ill for a future rapprochement. If they continue to escalate, and if Iran is unwilling to scale down its nuclear programme, is the possibility of military action against this country coming closer to realization?
Topic:
National Security, Nuclear Power, Elections, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

287. U.S.-Russia Strategic Partnership against Nuclear Proliferation

Author:
Pierre Goldschmidt
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
There are presently clear indications that we are about to see a revival of nuclear energy worldwide. It is important to make this expansion of nuclear energy for the production of electricity and desalinated water as safe and secure as possible. In the coming decade, however, the rate of this expansion will be limited by several factors: in some recipient states, by the lack of an adequate industrial infrastructure, or an insufficient nuclear safety culture with a truly independent control organization; and in supplier states, by a limited capacity to produce certain types of nuclear equipment, such as reactor vessels.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Border Control, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Russia

288. Are New Nuclear Bargains Attainable?

Author:
Deepti Choubey
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Policy makers have returned to the debate over whether and how total nuclear disarmament should take place. The notion that preventing the spread of nuclear weapons is much harder without also reducing their number seems to be motivating much of this interest. Consequently, officials in both the United States and other nuclear-weapon states hope that in direct exchange for renewed action on disarmament, non–nuclear-weapon states will support nonproliferation efforts.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Bilateral Relations, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States

289. Deterring State Sponsorship of Nuclear Terrorism

Author:
Michael Levi
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The basis of nuclear doctrine during the Cold War was deterrence. Nuclear powers were deterred from attacking each other by the fear of retaliation. Today, much of the concern over possible nuclear attack comes in the context of rogue states and terrorism. And since only states are known to possess nuclear weapons, an important question is how to deter them from letting terrorists acquire a device, whether through an authorized transfer or a security breach. Michael A. Levi analyzes this aspect of deterrence in the post–Cold War world, as well as what to do if deterrence breaks down. He suggests how to discourage states from giving weapons or nuclear materials to terrorists and how to encourage states to bolster security against any accidental transfer. The report also discusses the role of nuclear attribution—the science of identifying the origin of nuclear materials—in deterring transfers, an essential link in assigning responsibility to governments for transfers of nuclear materials.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States and Soviet Union

290. The Politics of Iran's Assembly of Experts after Meshkini

Author:
Mahjoob Zweiri and Ramzy Mardini
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The recent death of Ayatollah Ali Meshkini effectively created a vacuum that was bound to lead to an ideological and political clash among Iran’s power players. Meshkini was the first and only chairman of the Assembly of Experts, objectively Iran’s most powerful institution. He has kept its inherent powers at bay to the desires of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But now that has changed and Meshkini’s passing, with the recent victory of Hashemi Rafsanjani as his successor, has come at a time when the Islamic Republic is witnessing a socio-political redefinition in its conservative establishment. The ambitions of Iran’s old and new elitists have led to a political confrontation in filling Meshkini’s vacuity, a struggle that may have changed Iranian discourse, as we know it. Though this event is little known and hardly emphasized in media circles in the West, the politics leading up to Rafsanjani’s victory over the ultra-conservatives should be of great interest to those in discussion with Iran over its nuclear program and involvement in Iraq, particularly the United States. This article analyzes the Assembly’s role and significance within the Iranian institutional realm as well as depicts the candidates and politics that shaped this historic dilemma.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Nuclear Power, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

291. Iran’s Nuclear Challenge

Author:
Colin Dueck and Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
COLIN DUECK and RAY TAKEYH describe the political, ideological and security motivations behind Iran’s nuclear program and examine various strategic alternatives available to the United States. They conclude that the United States should pursue comprehensive, direct negotiations with Tehran on the nuclear issue, within an overarching framework of containment.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Negotiation, and Containment
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America