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152. The Importance of Being Ernst: Ernst David Bergmann and Israel’s Role in Taiwan’s Defense
- Author:
- Yitzhak Shichor
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
- Abstract:
- Since the early 1960s when Taiwanese officials met Professor Ernst David Bergmann, the first chairman of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, he played a significant role in Taiwan’s nuclear (and missile) programs. In Taiwan, which he visited occasionally and maintained close relations with President Chiang Kai-shek and its military-technological-scientific complex, Bergmann also facilitated some of Israel’s conventional military transfers to Taiwan. While some of his activities in Taiwan may have been approved by the Israeli Ministry of Defense (which followed its own foreign policy), the Foreign Ministry took exception, well before Jerusalem’s rapprochement with Beijing. Israel’s military relations with the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan) had been aborted by the mid-1990s, even though attempts have been made to resume defense links. Since his death in 1975—one day after Chiang Kai-shek’s—and definitely before, Ernst Bergmann has been considered, implicitly but lately explicitly, a prominent player in Taiwan’s defense modernization and one of the forefathers of its nuclear program.
- Topic:
- International Security, Military Affairs, Nuclear Power, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Taiwan
153. Nuclear Energy Basics, Part 2: Reactors and Nuclear Fuel Making
- Author:
- Henry D. Sokolski
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- Many of the materials, facilities, and technologies used to produce nuclear energy can be used to create nuclear weapons material. In nearly all stages in the production of peaceful nuclear energy, it is difficult to differentiate between peaceful activities and those useful to produce explosive materials for nuclear weap- ons. The purpose of this primer is to inform the reader about the basic steps of the nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear energy production, and to draw attention to those aspects of the fuel cycle that present the greatest nuclear weapons proliferation risks.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
154. Nuclear Energy Basics, Part 1: Fission, Fusion, and the Bomb
- Author:
- Henry D. Sokolski
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC), a 501(c)3 nonprofit organization, is a nonpartisan, educational organization founded in 1994 to promote a better understanding of strategic weapons proliferation issues. NPEC educates policymakers, journalists, and university professors about proliferation threats and possible new policies and measures to meet them.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
155. How Dark Might East Asia’s Nuclear Future Be?
- Author:
- Henry D. Sokolski
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- Long considered unlikely, the prospect of South Korea and Japan getting nuclear weapons and China and North Korea significantly ramping up their arsenals has become the next big worry. This June, CIA Director John Brennan testified that nuclear proliferation was “a blinking red light” and spotlighted North Korea’s nuclear misbehavior as a key concern.1 His testimony came only weeks after a The New York Times interview of Donald Trump in which the Republican presidential hopeful emphasized the inevitabil- ity and possible benefits of Japan and South Korea going nuclear.2 Since then, the question of whether or not it is in Washington’s interest to push nonproliferation in East Asia has been a hot topic in and outside the Beltway.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- East Asia
156. SERIOUS RULES FOR NUCLEAR POWER WITHOUT PROLIFERATION*
- Author:
- Henry D. Sokolski and Victor Gilinsky
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- In this chapter, we try to step back from the day-to- day struggles in Washington, DC, over nuclear non- proliferation policy to ask what measures we would need to have in place to be reasonably confident that expanding nuclear power globally will not increase the number of nuclear weapons-armed states. We recognize that, since the start of the Atoms for Peace Program in the mid-1950s, the United States has sup- ported worldwide use of nuclear power. It also has op- posed the spread of nuclear weapons and supported measures to control the nuclear weapons proliferation risks inherent in spreading nuclear technology for civilian purposes. The principal administrative ele- ments of this nonproliferation effort are the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the associated in- spection activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as well as various national and inter- national export controls.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
157. Alternative North Korean Nuclear Futures
- Author:
- Shane Smith
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- On February 12, 2013, North Korea’s state media announced that it had conducted a third nuclear test “of a smaller and light A-bomb unlike the previous ones, yet with great explosive power…demonstrating the good performance of the DPRK's nuclear deterrence that has become diversified.”[1] Since then, there has been renewed debate and speculation over the nature and direction of North Korea’s nuclear program. Can it develop weapons using both plutonium and uranium? How far away is it from having a deliverable warhead and how capable are its delivery systems? How many and what kind of weapons is it looking to build? These are not easy questions to answer. North Korea remains one of the most notoriously secret nations, and details about its nuclear program are undoubtedly some of its most valued secrets. Yet, the answers to these questions have far reaching implications for U.S. and regional security.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- North Korea
158. Should We Let The Bomb Spread
- Author:
- Henry Sokolski (ed)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- In 1966, Leonard Beaton, a journalist and strategic scholar, published a short book that asked must the bomb spread.1 Mr. Beaton’s query reflected the profound alarm with which proliferation was viewed shortly after the Cuban Missile Crisis. Today that alarm is all but absent: Now, not only is proliferation increasingly viewed as a given (more of a fact than a problem), but some security experts actually see advantages in nuclear weapons spreading or, at least, little harm. Cultivation of this latter view took time—nearly a half century— and considerable scholarship. In 1981, Kenneth Waltz popularized French and American finite deterrence thinking of the late 1950s by asking whether or not nuclear weapons in more hands might be better. His answer was yes. As nuclear weapons spread, he argued, adversaries would view war as being self-defeating and peace would become more certain.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
159. The Nuclear Terrorism Threat: How Real Is It?
- Author:
- Michael Brian Jenkins and John Lauder
- Publication Date:
- 08-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- NPEC Working Paper 1602, “The Nuclear Terrorism Threat: How Real Is It?” presents two opposed views on the threat of nuclear terrorism. Brian M. Jenkins, a Rand analyst and a leading expert on nuclear terrorism, argues that the threat is overblown. John Lauder, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency’s Nonproliferation Center, argues the opposing case that the threat is growing and we need to be hedging against it now.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, International Affairs, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
160. How Dark Might East Asia’s Nuclear Future Be?
- Author:
- Henry D. Sokolski
- Publication Date:
- 08-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- NPEC Working Paper 1601, “How Dark Might East Asia’s Nuclear Future Be?” contains detailed projections of what the future holds for a more nuclear-armed China, Japan, North Korea and South Korea. None are predictions. The volume’s purpose is to encourage deeper debate about the security implications of nuclear proliferation in East Asia.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
161. Alternative North Korean Nuclear Futures
- Author:
- Shane Smith
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- On February 12, 2013, North Korea’s state media announced that it had conducted a third nuclear test “of a smaller and light A-bomb unlike the previous ones, yet with great explosive power…demonstrating the good performance of the DPRK's nuclear deterrence that has become diversified.”[1] Since then, there has been renewed debate and speculation over the nature and direction of North Korea’s nuclear program. Can it develop weapons using both plutonium and uranium? How far away is it from having a deliverable warhead and how capable are its delivery systems? How many and what kind of weapons is it looking to build? These are not easy questions to answer. North Korea remains one of the most notoriously secret nations, and details about its nuclear program are undoubtedly some of its most valued secrets. Yet, the answers to these questions have far reaching implications for U.S. and regional security.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
162. The Inflated Yet Unsolvable North Korean Nuclear Threat
- Author:
- Boyan Boyanov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- After Pyongyang conducted its fourth nuclear test on the 5th of January 2016 and declared it a successful experiment with a hydrogen bomb, the international community resumed its appeals for finding a definitive solution to the issue with North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. What impresses is the routine of the international response following the North Korean habitual act of defying the nuclear nonproliferation system: diplomatic condemnation mostly coming from the United States, South Korea, Japan, and, in a far more restrained manner – from China. When Pyongyang launched a satellite in space two days later, Seoul responded by shutting down the Kaesong industrial complex – a mutually beneficial industrial zone where South Korean companies employ North Korean labor1 . Even this seemingly harsh action does not constitute a precedent. At that time it was not very demanding to foretell the execution of consequential U.S. – South Korea military drills to display the U.S. resolution to be constantly involved in whatever is happening on the Korean Peninsula and to dismay the latest great leader of the North.
- Topic:
- International Security, International Affairs, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- North Korea
163. China and Iran Expand Relations After Sanctions’ End
- Author:
- Chris Zambelis
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- While the full implications of the JCPOA on Iran’s regional and international standing have yet to be realized, the outcome of Xi’s 2016 visit to Tehran is likely to presage years of continued Sino-Iranian engagement and cooperation. At the same time, China is steadily being confronted with outside competition for Iran’s most promising markets and similar challenges. In terms of its history of dealings with Iran in recent years, this represents unfamiliar territory for China.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia
164. White House Narratives on the Iran Nuclear Deal
- Author:
- Michael Scott Doran
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Testimony before the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, United States House of Representatives
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
165. Selected Essays on the Transition to a New Nuclear Order
- Author:
- Judith Reppy and Catherine M. Kelleher
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
- Abstract:
- What conditions are needed for a stable transition to a new nuclear order, one in which the total number of nuclear weapons would be reduced to very low numbers, perhaps even zero? We have addressed the myriad issues raised by this question with funding from a grant on “Creating Conditions for a Stable Transition to a New Nuclear Order,” co-directed by Catherine Kelleher and Judith Reppy, from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation to the Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies at Cornell University. The essays collected here are a sample of the work supported by the grant. The goals of our project are three-fold: to take a fresh look at the theoretical underpinnings of the arguments about strategic security and nuclear doctrines; to encourage members of the younger generation (NextGen) scholars working on nuclear security issues to see themselves as part of a network that stretches from scholars in the field to active participants in the policy process; and to disseminate the products of the project to the policy community, in Washington and elsewhere. We have convened four workshops—in Berlin (December 2014); Ithaca, NY (November 2015); Monterey, CA (February 2016); and Washington, DC (May 2016)—and held several discussion dinners in Washington, DC. We received very welcome assistance in organizing these events from the German Marshall Fund, which hosted our Berlin workshop, and Bill Potter and Jeffrey Lewis at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey. Elaine Scott and Sandra Kisner at Cornell provided invaluable support throughout, as did Ari Kattan, Jessica Gottesman, and Debak Das.A number of themes have emerged from these meetings, which we outline below. First, however, it is worth discussing the broader context in which the project has unfolded. In a very real sense, the seeds of our project were sown by the “Gang of Four” op-ed in the Wall Street Journal in January 2007 calling for worldwide nuclear disarmament. This call, coming from four highly respected individuals in the policy world, re-invigorated the debate over the usefulness and dangers of nuclear weapons around the world, and spurred a number of similar calls from diplomats and politicians in other countries. In April 2009, President Obama gave an important speech in Prague, in which he stated that the United States was committed “to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”2 The shift in the political discussion encouraged scholars to return to the topics of strategic security and nuclear deterrence, topics that had fallen into neglect following the end of the Cold War. One such effort was a series of meetings organized by Catherine Kelleher under a grant from the Carnegie Corporation, which resulted in our co-edited book, Getting to Zero. In that volume the question of what a transition to nuclear zero would look like was broached, but not analyzed in detail. The current project is intended as a step toward filling that gap. The dangers that nuclear weapons pose—from accidents, miscalculation in times of crisis, or their acquisition by non-state actors—have persuaded many people that a nuclear-weapons free world is desirable. The optimism that nuclear disarmament might be feasible was based in large part on the success of European countries following World War II in building a zone of peace across the European continent, historically the site of so many bloody wars, and on the peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union. The Russian annexation of Crimea in spring 2014, however, ushered in a period of conflict in Ukraine and threw the validity of the European model into question. In Asia, stability has been threatened by North Korea’s detonation of nuclear devices and a more assertive international policy on the part of China. These shifts in the international situation have made it clear that a new nuclear order will have to be robust enough to weather unexpected political shocks, as well as the challenges arising from technological changes that can undercut strategic balances and other changes that we cannot foresee. As Harald Müller has cogently argued, global nuclear disarmament will not happen in a world that looks like the world of today, minus nuclear weapons. Instead, it will be the result of a step-by-step process of changing ideas, building new modes of cooperation and trust among states, and finding ways to respect regional differences within a global order. The essays in this Occasional Paper offer ideas for this process. We have selected them from the larger number of commissioned papers and commentaries produced by the participants in the project. We have confined our choices to papers by NextGen participants and included examples from each of the four workshops. The issues discussed include new ways to frame deterrence logics, important both for understanding the history of the Cold War and current questions of nuclear learning (Harrington; Akhtar). Security perspectives both within and between regions are analyzed (Zhao; Martin), and the importance of cooperative approaches to security addressed (Kühn; Gheorghe).
- Topic:
- National Security, Nuclear Power, Denuclearization, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Asia, and North America
166. Strengthening the ROK-US Nuclear Partnership
- Author:
- Miles A. Pomper, Toby Dalton, Scott Snyder, and Ferenc Dalnkoki-Veress
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- Over the last forty years, South Korea (or the Republic of Korea, or ROK) and the United States have become essential partners on nuclear matters. The United States provided the technology and knowhow necessary for Korea to establish a nuclear sector. Koreans mastered that technology and have worked to improve on it, with the twin goals of expanding their country’s energy independence and becoming a leading exporter of nuclear power production facilities. The two states’ nuclear energy industries have become intertwined. They cooperate on multiple initiatives to strengthen international nuclear security and nonproliferation measures. Collaborative research ties amongst nuclear scientists from both countries run deep. Arguably, each state is the other’s most important nuclear partner. As with all maturing relationships, there remain differences of view and priority that must be managed. Though unlikely, a disruption in ROK-US nuclear relations would have wide-ranging, deleterious effects on both states. For this reason, the conclusion in June 2015 of a new bilateral treaty, the Agreement for Cooperation Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Republic of Korea Concerning Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy (hereafter referred to as the 123 agreement after section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act, the relevant US statute) is a critical milestone. The new agreement establishes the terms for nuclear cooperation for the next twenty years. It is expansive and forward-looking, providing the basis for unusually broad and deep nuclear ties. The 123 agreement will bring predictability to the relationship at a time when the global nuclear energy outlook remains in flux. However, the new nuclear agreement only managed to partially resolve several deep-seated differences between the two sides that were illustrated by the fact that negotiations on a new agreement lasted more than four years and required an extension to complete. The agreement creates a new political framework for managing divergent views over how to cooperate most effectively, but differences may yet re-emerge and frustrate cooperation. The challenge before the two governments now is to implement the new agreement in ways that can either resolve or remove these differences and solidify existing ties. In other words, the two countries should seek to build a nuclear partnership in deed, not just in word. This report articulates a vision for ROK-US nuclear partnership for the next two decades, a period which aligns with the duration of the new agreement for cooperation. It highlights challenges and opportunities and provides recommendations intended to deepen and expand the range of existing cooperation in ways that will support a stable and sustainable nuclear partnership. The objective of the report is to describe a desirable and stable end-state for the relationship—an enduring partnership—and to identify steps along the path to achieve it. It discusses multiple areas of cooperation, assesses strengths and weaknesses of existing ties, and identifies practical activities both parties can pursue toward building the partnership.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
167. Replacing HEU in Naval Reactors
- Author:
- George M. Moore
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- Highly enriched uranium (HEU) is the simplest nuclear material to use for an improvised nuclear device, making it a target for terrorist groups seeking to inflict mass destruction. This paper examines the current status of HEU in naval propulsion programs worldwide, with a specific focus on the U.S. Navy’s program. It includes a technical assessment of less risky low-enriched uranium (LEU) alternatives and recommendations to enable conversion to such alternate technologies.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Nuclear Power, Navy, and Uranium
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
168. Improving the Security of All Nuclear Materials
- Author:
- Mark Fitzpatrick, Elena Sokova, Miles A. Pomper, Laura Rockwood, Ferenc Dalnkoki-Veress, and Matthew Cottee
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- About four-fifths of the weapons-usable nuclear materials in the world are in non-civilian programmes. This means not only as the explosive core in active or reserve nuclear weapons, but also as fuel in naval and military research reactors, highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium at production sites, in storage, or declared excess to military uses, but not yet transferred to other programmes or eliminated. Yet coordinated global efforts to enhance the security of nuclear materials have been almost exclusively concentrated on the estimated 17% of such nuclear materials in the civilian sector. Ideally, all HEU and plutonium of the same grade should have at least the same level of adequate security regardless of the possessor or purpose, since the materials pose the same threat. In practice, however, the security of materials can vary depending on whether they are used in the civilian or military sectors. The Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and Nuclear Facilities (CPPNMNF – as the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material was renamed after the 2005 amendment came into force in May 2016), as well as International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) security guidelines such as INFCIRC/225/Rev.5, describe how civilian materials should be secured. No such explicit guidelines exist on how to secure materials outside of the civilian sector. Nor is there comprehensive public knowledge about the state of security of such materials in all countries with nuclear weapons programmes. It has often been asserted that nuclear materials in non-civilian use are well protected because they are under military control. However, the number of troubling security breaches involving nuclear material in military use, as well as some examples involving civilian nuclear facilities, belies this casual assumption, underscoring why the world should not simply accept the unsubstantiated ‘solemn word’ of authorities that security is as tight as needed. The list of incidents includes insider threats, peaceful incursions for demonstration purposes, theft, armed attack, and, most recently, over-flights by drones and computer hacking. Our report includes a number of examples of incidents at civilian facilities as well because they demonstrate areas of vulnerability that may also apply to the noncivilian sector. The record offers a compelling case for why security must be enhanced for all nuclear material.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
169. An Appraisal of Pakistan’s Nuclear Policy during War on Terror
- Author:
- Muhammad Ilyas Ansari and Iram Khalid
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- This paper seeks to analyze that why some nations to nuclear in the international structure for the sake of national security when nuclear is an expensive and hard option? Due to fragile geopolitical position of Pakistan,security concerns have always forced her to find balance of power in the south Asian region through different ways. Having fought three major wars with India in 1948, 1965 and 1971 in an asymmetric military environment, Pakistan had been in disadvantageous position. War of 1971 in which Pakistan lost its Eastern wing (now Bangladesh, as an independent state) and nuclear explosion by India in 1974 forced Pakistan to follow the nuclear path. This paper analyzes the results of nuclear policy in the form of economic sanctions imposed by US and its allies, and reversal of US policy after 9/11 regarding sanctions against Pakistan. In the wake of 9/11 incident for joining the US led Global War on Terror, General Musharraf had announced that his objective was to save the nuclear and missile assets of Pakistan. This paper analyses that how Pakistani governments of General Musharraf, and Zardari from 2001 to 2013, had been under immense pressure through different coercive tactics ( from Dr. A. Q khan’s network to safety of nuclear program) to ruin the Pakistani nuclear program which had proved to prevent wars between India and Pakistan since 1999 to 2013. What costs Pakistan had to pay and what benefits Pakistan gained due to nuclear program.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, War, History, Nuclear Power, and War on Terror
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, Punjab, and United States of America
170. Iran’s Resurgence as Power after International Sanctions Relief / El resurgimiento de Irán como potencia tras el levantamiento de las sanciones internacionales
- Author:
- José Ignacio Castro
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- Nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 Group become a reality at the beginning of 2016, with the Iranian engagement on declaration and reduction of her nuclear capabilities, for a temporary period. Parallel to the agreement accomplishment, Iran has increased her power towards her geopolitical enlargement area in the Mesopotamia and Levant region. Iran´s resurgence has caused a conventional weapons´ proliferation, where ballistic missiles are the main stress´s source. At international level, Iran has achieved better business opportunities, although her economic evolution is still slow, mainly due internal power´s dynamics. At global order level, the agreement has brought main actors power´s redesign in Middle East and other global areas. Inside Iran, the agreement has reinforced institutional authority and at the same time it is opening up the way for hope and for a better future for the Iranian people.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
171. Heavy Water Loophole in the Iran Deal
- Author:
- David Albright and Andrea Stricker
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Science and International Security
- Abstract:
- Although President-elect Donald Trump’s position on the Iran nuclear deal remains unclear, he and his allies in the Congress are expected to at least better enforce and strengthen the Iran deal. They should start by focusing on the deal’s heavy water loophole, whereby Iran can store offshore in Oman heavy water it owns and controls in excess of the nuclear deal’s limits, awaiting its eventual sale. To date, if the stocks in Iran and Oman are counted together (a reasonable view since Iran owns and controls both stocks), Iran has far exceeded the nuclear deal’s stated limit of maintaining a stock of only 130 metric tons of heavy water. Yet, this loophole was sanctioned by the executive body of the Iran deal, the Joint Commission. Despite such generous treatment, Iran has even so twice violated the narrow limit of 130 metric tons of heavy water it can hold inside Iran since the deal started in January 2016. Iran should no longer be facilitated in its overproduction of nuclear-related heavy water. Oman would do the world a favor by halting its willingness to accept Iranian heavy water and send any back to Iran for downblending. The return of the heavy water and its blending down would dramatically signal to Iran that violations of the Iran deal are no longer going to be tolerated, or worse, facilitated. Moreover, any further overproduction should be seen by the United States as a violation of the deal. It should work to end the Oman loophole and mitigate damage caused by a U.S. purchase of Iranian heavy water.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Nuclear Power, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
172. The rationale for supporting nuclear power: analysis of Taiwanese public opinion survey
- Author:
- Xiaochen Su, Chung-li Wu, Yen-chieh Liao, Tai-De Lee, and Chen Tsao
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
- Institution:
- Japan Association of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The future of nuclear energy use has become increasingly contentious across the world. This is especially the case in Taiwan, which simultaneously suffers from the instabilities associated with fossil fuel imports and widespread public doubts about the government's ability to handle a Fukushima-scale disaster, while also being increasingly dependent on nuclear energy. This study employs the 2013 Taiwan Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) survey on the Lungmen Nuclear Power Plant to gauge public opinion on the nuclear issue. The results demonstrate that while the public tends to be pro-nuclear when they are informed about the financial consequences of abandoning nuclear power and reassured about safety concerns, opponents of nuclear power, though numerically fewer, tend to be more vocal. Further research is needed to determine the exact logic of the public's decision making, based on a more precise set of preconditions.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan
173. Slow Thaw: Testing Possibilities for Cooperation with Iran After a Nuclear Deal
- Author:
- Ilan Goldenberg, Jacob Stokes, and Nicholas Heras
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- With nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States restarting today, Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Middle East Security Program Director Ilan Goldenberg, CNAS Bacevich Fellow Jacob Stokes, and CNAS Middle East Program Research Associate Nicholas Heras have produced a new policy brief on potential cooperation with Iran in the wake of a nuclear deal. The authors argue any thawing of the relationship would face tremendous challenges.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
174. Prospects for Iran's New Direction
- Author:
- Keir Giles
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This monograph, completed ahead of the November 2014 deadline, examines some of the underlying factors which will be constant in dealing with a nuclear capable Iran under President Hassan Rouhani, and which will help determine the success or failure of talks in 2015. It analyzes Rouhani's eventful first year in office in order to provide pointers to what may be possible—and to some key limiting factors—for Iran under his leadership. During that time, Rouhani has been forced to balance his own progressive instincts with the instinctual caution of more conservative elements of the Iranian ruling elite. As a result, foreign hopes for his influence on Iran’s place in the world have moved from initial optimism to a more sober assessment of the options available to him. This monograph provides an essential backdrop to the forthcoming renewed negotiations with Iran by providing an introduction to the complex interplay of issues and interests which constrain the Iranian leadership
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Nuclear Power, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Iran
175. If Japan and South Korea Go Nuclear: Two Military-Technical Scenarios
- Author:
- Ian Easton and Charles Ferguson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- America's security alliances with Japan and South Korea made headlines last month. In addition to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's address to a joint session of Congress, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter visited both Japan and South Korea. Their main focus was on how to fortify Seoul's and Tokyo's security alliance ties with the US against possible Chinese and North Korean military threats.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
176. The Long Road to Tehran: The Iran Nuclear Deal in Perspective
- Author:
- Bryan R. Gibson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- After nearly 20 months of near continuous negotiations, in 2015 Iran and the P5+1 reached a deal designed to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons capability in exchange for relief from the sanctions that have been crippling its economy over the course of the past decade. How was this momentous agreement reached? This Strategic Update traces the story of this major diplomatic breakthrough, through the historical context of long term US-Iran relations and the tireless international effort to prevent domestic political crises from derailing the negotiations.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran
177. The Third Way: Japan’s Policy on Nuclear Energy
- Author:
- Shinsuke Tomotsugu
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- On April 14, 2015, a Japanese court ordered a halt to the government’s plan to restart the Takahama Nuclear Power Plant. The ruling cited safety fears, whereas the Japanese nuclear regulatory watchdog had given the opera on its consent. There are currently 48 commercial reactors in Japan, all of which remain offline a er the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011. The Japanese government has been cri cized for its insistence on viewing nuclear energy as an important base‐load power source despite its official policy of reducing dependence on nuclear energy. But restar ng nuclear reactors—assuming that they meet the revised safety requirements—does not necessarily contradict that policy inasmuch as the transparency of the safety review process is guaranteed. Moreover, the issue is intertwined with broader concerns that extend beyond Japan’s borders, including U.S.‐Japan rela ons and the interna onal nonprolifera on regime. It is this interna onal context, o en overlooked in Japan and elsewhere, that makes it unrealis c and rather dangerous for Japan to immediately abandon nuclear energy altogether.
- Topic:
- International Security and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Japan
178. The Iran Nuclear Agreement and Iranian Energy Exports, the Iranian Economy, and World Energy Markets
- Author:
- Anthony H Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Much of the examination of the Iran nuclear agreement has focused on the funds that would be released once Iran complied with the terms of the agreement. Some estimates of the near term cash benefit that Iran will receive have gone as high as $150 billion – although U.S.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran
179. Imagining a New Security Order in the Persian Gulf
- Author:
- Richard Sokolsky and Frederic M. Wehrey
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- For over three decades, the question of who controls the Persian Gulf has formed the basis for America’s massive military buildup in the region. At the heart of the region’s security dilemma is a clash of visions: Iran seeks the departure of U.S. forces so it can exert what it sees as its rightful authority over the region, while the Gulf Arab states want the United States to balance Iranian power. Resolving this impasse will not be easy. But the Iranian nuclear agreement presents an opportunity to take a first step toward creating a new security order in the Gulf, one that could improve relations between Iran and the Gulf Arab states and facilitate a lessening of the U.S. military commitment. Read more at: http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/10/14/imagining-new-security-order-in-persian-gulf/ij3p
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States and Persian Gulf
180. How South Korea Could Acquire and Deploy Nuclear Weapons
- Author:
- James Fergusson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- Political leaders and defense planners in the Republic of Korea (ROK), or South Korea, are cognizant that worsening security in Northeast Asia could lead to additional states, including the ROK, to consider and even develop nuclear weapons. In particular, Korean President Park Geun-hye warned in May 2014 that another nuclear bomb test by North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) would be “crossing a Rubicon” and would make it “difficult for us to prevent a nuclear domino from occurring in this area
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- South Korea
181. Why should the Visegrad Group support the Iranian Nuclear Deal?
- Author:
- Erzsébet N. Rózsa
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute of International Relations Prague
- Abstract:
- On July 14, 2015 the so-called P 5 + 1 (the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) concluded a historic deal with Iran over its nuclear program. The present paper argues that the Iranian nuclear program and the international controversy over it are derivatives of both the experimental model of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its behaviour, in which it acts as an empire.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran
182. Pakistan’s Nuclear Development (1974-1998): External Pressures
- Author:
- Iram Khalid and Zakia Bano
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- Pakistan detonated its nuclear test on May 28, 1998 in the Chagai hills which is along the western border of the province, Baluchistan. Many personalities and organizations were involved in developing the nuclear device against a backdrop of political, security and economic constraints, as well as opportunities. India’s 1974 nuclear explosion had proved a fundamental flashpoint for Pakistan‘s nuclear program. Pakistan decided to accomplish its vow to “eat grass or go hungry” in its mission on its advance for the nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s nuclear program evolved under immensely intricate and challenging security dilemmas and circumstances. Historical experience, a combination of cultural nuances, idiosyncrasies of personalities, and domestic politics existed throughout the nuclearization process. Pakistan faced regional crises, geographical compulsions, technical challenges, global politics, external pressure and international propaganda to nuclear materials know-how.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, History, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Punjab
183. Weak Sanctions Breathe Life Into North Korean Defiance of International Community: FSR Interviews Joshua Stanton
- Author:
- Joshua Stanton
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Joshua Stanton, an attorney in Washington, D.C., has advised the House Foreign Affairs Committee on North Korea-related legislation, including the North Korea Sanctions Enforcement Act, and blogs at OneFreeKorea. His article, "North Korea: The Myth of Maxed-Out Sanctions", a legal analysis of North Korean sanctions, refuted the idea that there is nothing left that the world community can do to bring them to the negotiating table. In this interview, he expands further on this idea addressing why people think that nothing more can be done and how the Iranian nuclear deal will affect relation with North Korea. The views expressed are solely his own.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
184. Iran’s Failed Foreign Policy: Dealing from a Position of Weakness
- Author:
- Thomas Juneau
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- In this MEI Policy Paper, Thomas Juneau examines Iran’s role in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and the Arab-Israeli conflict to explain why Iran is not a “rising regional hegemon” but rather a “mid-sized regional power frustrated at not reaching its ambitions.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Nuclear Power, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, and Syria
185. Civil HEU Watch Tracking: Inventories of Civil Highly Enriched Uranium: National and Global Stocks, as of End 2014
- Author:
- David Albright and Serena Kelleher-Vergantini
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Science and International Security
- Abstract:
- Highly enriched uranium (HEU) is a key ingredient in nuclear weapons, making it one of the most dangerous materials in existence. As a result, governments take extraordinary measures to secure HEU against theft or diversion and to reduce the inventories of HEU in the world. To that end, it is important to track how much civil HEU exists and where it is. However, national civil HEU stocks are difficult to estimate, with transparency policies varying by country and few countries providing official declarations of their stocks. As a result, this report contains the few official civil HEU declarations and estimates civil HEU stocks in countries that do not provide public declarations. This study relies on open source information to derive these estimates. It is an update of a report published in 2005.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, and Uranium
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
186. India’s Stocks of Civil and Military Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, End 2014
- Author:
- David Albright and Serena Kelleher-Vergantini
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for Science and International Security
- Abstract:
- India has one of the largest nuclear power programs among developing nations. Utilizing plutonium produced in these power reactors and discharged in irradiated or spent fuel, India has developed a relatively large civil plutonium separation program and an associated fast breeder reactor program that is using that separated plutonium. India has a sizeable nuclear weapons effort. The weapons use separated plutonium produced primarily in a set of small, dedicated reactors and a smaller amount produced in nuclear power reactors. It has a growing gas centrifuge program able to produce significant amounts of highly enriched uranium (HEU) mostly for naval reactor fuel and perhaps for nuclear weapons, including thermonuclear weapons. India is not transparent about its fissile material stocks. This report estimates India’s stocks of separated plutonium and highly enriched uranium.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Uranium, and Plutonium
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
187. Israel’s Military Plutonium Inventory
- Author:
- David Albright
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Science and International Security
- Abstract:
- Israel developed its first nuclear weapon shortly before the 1967 Six Day War, making it the sixth nation to develop nuclear weapons.2 To this day, Israel maintains an ambiguous posture about its nuclear weapons, despite the declassification of formerly secret U.S. government documents which assert the existence of Israeli nuclear weapons. In addition, the revelations of Mordechai Vanunu in 1986 revealed a larger nuclear weapons program than commonly assessed at that time.3 The heart of Israel’s nuclear weapons production complex is the Dimona site near the city of Beersheva. This site contains a number of secret nuclear facilities for the production of plutonium, including a heavy water reactor, a fuel fabrication plant, and a plutonium separation plant, all provided by France in the 1950s and early 1960s. The site also reportedly contains facilities likely involved in tritium extraction and purification (using tritium also produced in the reactor), lithium production, and possibly facilities dedicated to uranium enrichment, at least on a research and development scale.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
188. Evaluating Project Aim 2020: Preparing to Transform the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
- Author:
- Robert Shea
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
- Abstract:
- The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has experienced significant changes over the last five years. NRC developed Project Aim 2020 (Project Aim) to improve the agency’s planning and operational functions. Project Aim set out to identify key strategies and recommendations to transform the agency during the next five years to enhance the NRC’s ability to plan and execute its mission in a more effective, efficient, and agile manner. The NRC requested the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) to conduct an independent assessment of Project Aim. The Academy’s review of Project Aim consisted of two reports: an evaluation of Project Aim processes; and an assessment of the Project Aim final report. The Academy reports were prepared by a professional Study Team, in consultation with an experienced Focus Group of five Academy Fellows and one non-Fellow. The Study Team and Focus Group utilized their knowledge of strategic planning and organizational change management in their evaluation of the NRC’s efforts, providing the NRC with several pragmatic recommendations as the agency pursues an important organizational transformation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
189. Iran Nuclear Policy Brief: An Effective, Verifiable Nuclear Deal With Iran
- Author:
- Kelsey Davenport and Daryl G. Kimball
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- The P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) have finalized a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran that will verifiably block Iran's pathways to nuclear weapons development--the uranium-enrichment route and the plutonium-separation route--and guard against a clandestine weapons program. We assess that the final agreement will be a net-plus for nonproliferation and will enhance U.S. and regional security. This two-page Iran Nuclear Policy Brief examines the key provisions and benefits of a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Nuclear Power, and Uranium
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iran
190. The Regulation and Technology of Chinese Nuclear Material Accounting
- Author:
- Wu Jun
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- Nuclear security practices have been a part of the development of China’s nuclear industry from the beginning, and they remain an important part of nuclear operations. The Chinese government pays close attention to nuclear security and has set up laws and regulations to govern the use of nuclear materials. The companies and operators that use nuclear materials have developed operational manuals and regulations to ensure the protection and control of nuclear materials based on national laws and regulations. These measures explain why there are no reported losses of nuclear materials from Chinese facilities. In light of recent reforms and the “opening” of China, which has increased communication with foreigners and has led to other changes in the international environment, threats to nuclear material security are changing and posing new challenges to Chinese nuclear management. The Chinese government is working to improve regulations to confront these new threats. Nuclear material accounting is one of the most important parts of nuclear material security. China has set up a nuclear material accounting system to account for nuclear materials, to track material inventories, to report inventory changes, and to help detect unexpected increases or decreases in inventories. This paper analyzes Chinese nuclear material accounting systems and the regulations that guide their implementation, from a technical viewpoint.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, Regulation, and Nuclear Security
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
191. Anticipating Climate Mitigation: The Role of Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs)
- Author:
- John Steinbruner
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- Global warming is likely to force assertive redirection of global energy markets in order to achieve a prudent standard of mitigation; the resulting process of energy transformation will fundamentally alter prevailing policies and institutional relationships. Efficiency gains and renewable technologies—wind, solar, and biomass—will presumably make substantial contributions, as will carbon sequestration to some extent. But at the moment it seems quite apparent that global mitigation cannot be achieved without a very substantial expansion of nuclear power generation. While current light water reactor technology will likely play a role, this paper argues that smaller modular reactors (SMRs) of innovative design, with innovative institutional arrangements, could contribute to meeting energy demands in a more safe and secure manner. Though many SMR designs are currently being developed, it is doubtful that any of them will be brought to the point of serial production by their current developers under currently projected market conditions. Completed prototype development would almost certainly have to be a public sector initiative undertaken in support of eventual mitigation. This paper explores the potential of developing international structures whereby multiple states and entities could develop several SMR prototypes and serial manufacturing hubs. The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor development process could prove to be a useful analogue to the arrangements necessary to support such large-scale SMR development and deployment.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Nuclear Power, Energy, Nuclear Security, and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
192. Iranian Attitudes on Nuclear Negotiations
- Author:
- Nancy Gallagher, Clay Ramsay, and Ebrahim Mohseni
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- This survey is one in a series of surveys related to Iran that CISSM has conducted since 2013.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Nuclear Power, Negotiation, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
193. Next steps toward a final deal with Iran
- Author:
- Steven Blockmans and Luigi Scazzieri
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- On January 20th, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had been implementing its commitments as part of the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) agreed by the E3+3 in Geneva on November 24th of last year. In particular, the Agency confirmed that Iran had not installed new centrifuges, that it had stopped enriching uranium above 5%, that it had disabled connections between cascades being used to enrich up to 20%, and that it had begun the process of diluting half of its stockpile of 20%, while the other half is to be converted to oxide over the next six months. Over the next six months, the IAEA will continue to monitor Iranian enrichment, and activities at Arak, Fordow and Natanz. Immediately following the IAEA announcement, the US and EU suspended some of the sanctions currently imposed on Iran. Sanctions relief, quantified at $7 billion, comprises both the suspension of some sanctions and the repatriation of $4.2 billion of oil revenues in tranches.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran
194. Governing Uranium in the United States
- Author:
- Sharon Squassoni, Robert Kim, Stephanie Cooke, and Jacob Greenberg
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The Proliferation Prevention Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) participated in a global project on uranium governance led by the Danish Institute for International Studies that looks at uranium accountability and control in 17 uranium- producing countries. The project seeks to identify governance gaps and provide policy recommendations for improving front- end transparency, security, and regulation. The impetus for the project is the concern that monitoring activities at the front end—uranium mining, milling, and conversion—could be strengthened.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, International Security, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States
195. Nuclear Notes
- Author:
- Sarah Weiner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the Cold War, nuclear deterrence has been a central element of U.S. national security policy. The United States' nuclear guarantee became the foundation of its security strategy and that of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which was created to deter the Soviet Union and served as a core part of the alliance's victorious emergence from the Cold War. Just as many questioned the purpose of the alliance after the Cold War, many allies along with the United States currently debate the continued role of U.S. nuclear deterrence in Europe.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
196. Creating a 'one house' culture at the IAEA through matrix management
- Author:
- Robert E. Kelley
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is currently structured along largely programmatic lines, with each programme recruiting and training its own staff. This process is wasteful as it creates bureaucratic disincentives to sharing people and resources.
- Topic:
- International Organization, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
197. President Rouhani and the IRGC
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Although President Rouhani has persuaded the Supreme Leader to adjust the IRGC's economic functions, he has not challenged its role in shaping Iran's nuclear policy. President Hassan Rouhani's relationship with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a central dynamic in the country's politics and economy. As always, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ultimately determines the roles of the president and the IRGC, so Rouhani has sought to pursue his economic imperatives without crossing the Supreme Leader or the military elite on the nuclear issue.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
198. Clear-Eyed Diplomacy: Strategic Shifts Needed in the Iran Negotiations
- Author:
- Michael Singh
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- If Washington is to secure an Iranian nuclear deal that is sustainable and advances American interests, it must make several adjustments to its diplomatic strategy. The Iran nuclear talks are set to resume in Vienna today, with the aim of reaching a long-term agreement to succeed the first-step "Joint Plan of Action" (JPOA). Negotiating an agreement that advances U.S. interests will require the Obama administration to deemphasize political battles in Washington and focus on the larger issues at stake, such as Iran's regional activities and the ultimate fate of the nuclear program. It should also endeavor to transform its fractious array of domestic and international allies from a weakness into a strength. Despite their tactical differences, these allies share an interest in preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, as well as avoiding a military conflict and promoting regional stability and global nonproliferation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- America, Iran, and Washington
199. Ayatollah Khamenei: Pessimistic Negotiator, Optimistic Strategist
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Despite offering nominal support for Iran's nuclear negotiating team, Khamenei and his circle continue to criticize the talks and could sabotage them outright if internal dynamics go against President Rouhani.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, Power Politics, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran
200. TSG IntelBrief: Economic Drivers of an Iran Nuclear Deal
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- There are clear and compelling economic imperatives for Iran to accept a nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany) by a November 24 deadline. The Iranian public has chafed under comprehensive sanctions since 2010 and expect President Hassan Rouhani to deliver a nuclear agreement that enables the economy to recover and grow. U.S. and other P5+1 officials stress the economic opportunities for Iran that will result, including the eventual re-opening of Iran's oil and gas sector to foreign investment. Major international firms are poised to re-enter the Iranian market in the event of a nuclear deal, although firms will initially be cautious due to lingering uncertainty.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Middle East