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271. FUKUSHIMA CRISIS: UNMONITORED RELEASES Preliminary Assessment of Accident Sequences and Potential Atmospheric Radiation Releases

Author:
David Albright, Paul Brannan, and Christina Walrond
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
instances of unmonitored radiation releases to the atmosphere from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactors. The radiation readings and ground level wind directions are from the TEPCO web site. ISIS could not validate TEPCO’s information, but the data appear adequate to conduct some scoping analysis of the releases. Using this information, ISIS has sought to understand the fate of the releases and determine whether radiation monitoring stations intersected the plume of released radioactive material. We welcome any input. Since March 11, reactor units 1-4 at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant have experienced hydrogen explosions, fires, partial melting of irradiated or “spent” fuel in the reactors, the uncovering and possible burning of irradiated fuel in spent fuel ponds at reactor 4 and perhaps other reactors. Table 1 lists several known accidents that occurred through March 18. These accidents, and perhaps ones that were not noticed or reported, released significant amounts of radiation into the atmosphere that the winds spread widely. They all require greater scrutiny. From an analysis of the limited data on atmospheric releases, ISIS has developed several key findings. The first is that the limited radiation detection capabilities at the Fukushima Daiichi plant following the earthquake and tsunami eliminated the ability to detect, characterize, or track a release of radiation. Many releases went partially or completely undetected by on-site monitoring. None of the releases from accidents were monitored as to their radioactive contents. Although the amount and type of radionuclides in these releases cannot be estimated from the existing on-site monitoring data, the existing data support that the potential for significant radiation doses to off-site population exists, particularly in sectors northwest and southwest of the reactors.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Nuclear Power, Nuclear Safety, Disaster Management, Fukushima Disaster, and Earthquake
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

272. Characterizing the Crisis at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

Author:
David Albright and Christina Walrond
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
During the crisis at the Fukushima nuclear power reactors following the earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011, the Japanese Safety Authority issued ratings for the accident on the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES). Initially, it stated that the incident was a level 4, but it subsequently raised the levels assigned to each reactor, with the majority receiving a level 5. Table 1 indicates the latest ratings issued March 18 by the Japanese authority, where it has parsed the ratings based on accidents at individual reactors. Although the radioactivity is emitted from different reactor buildings, it represents a collective hazard to public health. As such, the accident should be judged comprehensively, not only in component parts. Simply because some aspects of the crisis were not as catastrophic as others does not lessen the overall severity of the accident. ISIS continues to assess that the accident is a level 6.
Topic:
Nuclear Power, Crisis Management, Disaster Management, Fukushima Disaster, and Earthquake
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

273. Performance of the IR-1 Centrifuge at Natanz

Author:
David Albright and Christina Walrond
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
During the past year, the performance of the IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) has faltered. Although the average monthly production of 3.5 percent low enriched uranium (LEU) has increased to about 150 kg/month, the number of centrifuges needed to produce this LEU has increased disproportionately compared to the previous year. During the last year, Iran has needed 5,860 IR-1 centrifuges to produce this amount of LEU. In the previous year, it would have needed only about 4,820 IR-1 centrifuges to make this quantity of LEU.
Topic:
Nuclear Power, Uranium, and Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP)
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

274. Characterizing the Crisis at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

Author:
David Albright and Christina Walrond
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
During the crisis at the Fukushima nuclear power reactors following the earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011, the Japanese Safety Authority issued ratings for the accident on the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES). Initially, it stated that the incident was a level 4, but it subsequently raised the levels assigned to each reactor, with the majority receiving a level 5. Table 1 indicates the latest ratings issued March 18 by the Japanese authority, where it has parsed the ratings based on accidents at individual reactors. Although the radioactivity is emitted from different reactor buildings, it represents a collective hazard to public health. As such, the accident should be judged comprehensively, not only in component parts. Simply because some aspects of the crisis were not as catastrophic as others does not lessen the overall severity of the accident. ISIS continues to assess that the accident is a level 6. The INES system exists to communicate with the public about the severity and extent of a nuclear event. It is meant to provide a guide, such as the Richter scale for earthquakes, to qualify a nuclear accident. As such, it is important to accurately rate a radiological event in order to afford the public the time and information needed to take necessary precautions.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Nuclear Power, and Fukushima Disaster
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

275. Nükleer Enerji Sahibi Olma Kararını Etkileyen Faktörler ve Türkiye için Tahminler

Author:
Bülent Köksal and Abdülkadir Civan
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
Using data for 67 countries for the period 1980-2005, we analyze to what extent do the decisions of having nuclear power and the share of nuclear energy in total energy use depend on economic, political, social and geographic factors. Our econometric model that takes the selectivity problems of the sample into consideration reveals a positive relationship between per capita real income and the probability of selecting to have nuclear power. This relationship, however, weakens as the level of income further increases. We also find that, the probability of opting for nuclear power continuously increases for Turkey starting from 1990s and becomes approximately 45 per cent by 2007. When we use the new GDP series of Turkish Statistical Institute in our estimations, the estimated probability of selection of nuclear energy for Turkey increases to approximately 60 per cent. Finally, we find that if Turkey had a nuclear power generator today, the share of nuclear energy in total energy would be approximately between 14 to 16 percent.
Topic:
Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Turkey

276. Spin-On for the Renaissance? The Current State of China's Nuclear Industry

Author:
Jing-dong Yuan
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
China's nuclear industry has undergone rapid growth in recent years and is projected to further expand in the coming decades. Accounting for almost 40 percent of all nuclear reactors either under construction or that have been approved globally, the expansion of China's nuclear capacities has largely been driven by increasing demands for energy to support continued economic growth. Constraints include human resources, fuel supply, and the extent to which China can develop indigenous nuclear power capacities. The role of civil-military integration in this industry is yet to be determined partly as a result of the deliberate decision by Beijing to keep its nuclear weapons segment separate from its civilian operations.
Topic:
Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
China and Asia

277. Iran: A View From Moscow

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin and Alexey Malashenko
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Iran's emergence as a rising power is straining its relations with Russia. While many outside observers assume the two countries enjoy a close relationship, in reality it is highly complex. Although Iran and Russia have strong economic and military ties, Moscow is increasingly wary of Tehran's growing ambitions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Tehran, and Moscow

278. "Interview with Robert Baer, Author of The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower"

Author:
Michael Mylrea
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
al Nakhlah
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The ongoing showdown with Iran is one of the greatest US foreign policy challenges of this century. Iran's ambition to become the region's superpower has been bolstered by its large oil and gas supply, Shiites gaining control in Iraq, Hezbollah—an Iranian proxy army—fighting Israel to a standstill, and, its defiant move to become a nuclear power. Bold messages from Iran, such as that it will retaliate against the West and its allies if they try to impede its rise to power, are challenging to interpret.
Topic:
Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Iran

279. Nuclear Energy: Rebirth or Resuscitation?

Author:
Sharon Squassoni
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After several decades of disappointing growth, nuclear energy seems poised for a comeback. Talk of a "nuclear renaissance" includes perhaps a doubling or tripling of nuclear capacity by 2050, spreading nuclear power to new markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and developing new kinds of reactors and fuel-reprocessing techniques. But the reality of nuclear energy's future is more complicated. Without major changes in government policies and aggressive financial support, nuclear power is actually likely to account for a declining percentage of global electricity generation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Middle East and Southeast Asia

280. Turkey's Perspectives on Nuclear Weapons and Disarmament

Author:
Henri J. Barkey
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In principle, Turkey would welcome the global elimination of nuclear weapons. For the current government, the possession of nuclear weapons by other states is a factor that, indirectly at least, reduces Turkey's regional (if not global) aspirations and power. However, in the medium term, it remains deeply ambivalent on the future of nuclear weapons and its own plans regarding nuclear energy and weapons development.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Turkey, and Germany