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3281. Global Trends 2010

Publication Date:
12-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In fall 1996, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held a series of conferences at National Defense University to identify key global trends and their impact on major regions and countries of the globe. The exercise was designed to help describe and assess major features of the political world as they will appear in the year 2010.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and South America

3282. Conflict in Time and Space

Author:
Richard. Tucker and Nathaniel. Beck
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Scholars in international relations (IR) are increasingly using time-series cross-section data to analyze models with a binary dependent variable (BTSCS models). IR scholars generally employ a simple logit/probit to analyze such data. This procedure is inappropriate if the data exhibit temporal or spatial dependence. First, we discuss two estimation methods for modelling temporal dependence in BTSCS data: one promising based on exact modelling of the underlying temporal process which determines the latent, continuous, dependent variable; The second, and easier to implement, depends on the formal equivalence of BTSCS and discrete duration data. Because the logit estimates a discrete hazard in a duration context, this method adds a smoothed time term to the logit estimation. Second, we discuss spatial or cross-sectional issues, including robust standard errors and the modelling of effects. While it is not possible to use fixed effects in binary dependent variable panel models, such a strategy is feasible for IR BTSCS models. While not providing a model of spatial dependence, Huber's robust standard errors may well provide more accurate indications of parameter variability if the unit observations are intra-related. We apply these recommended techniques to reanalyses of the relationship between (1) democracy, interdependence and peace (Oneal, Oneal, Maoz and Russett); and (2) security and the termination of interstate rivalry (Bennett). The techniques appear to perform well statistically. Substantively, while democratic dyads do appear to be more peaceful, trade relations, as measured by Oneal, et al., do not decrease the likelihood of particpation in militarized disputes, Bennett's principal finding regarding security and rivalry termination is confirmed; his finding on common external threats, however, is not; his results on the influence of issue salience are even more robust.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations

3283. After Hebron: Prospects for the Peace Process

Author:
Zalman Shoval
Publication Date:
03-1997
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The Hebron agreement is now finally in place. During the months that it took to reach that point, some must have been reminded of what the nineteenth century British Prime Minister Lord Palmerstone once said about the Schleswig-Holstein question: there were only three people who understood it - one of whom was dead, one was in an asylum, and he himself had forgotten it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Middle East

3284. Saudi Arabia in the 1990s: Stability and Foreign Policy

Author:
Mordechai Abir
Publication Date:
09-1997
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The stability of Saudi Arabia (and the Persian Gulf as a whole) is crucially important to the world's industrial countries. According to the Gulf Center of Strategic Studies, "oil is expected to account for 38 percent of all the world consumption of energy until 2015, compared to 39 percent in 1993. Increasing world-wide demand for oil, now about 74 million barrels per day, is projected to rise by 2015 to about 110 million" (Gulf Report, London, July 1997). Over 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia alone controls 25 percent of the total.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

3285. Possibilities and Realities of Cuba's Integration into the Caribbean: Perceptions of Cuban Entrepreneurs

Author:
Gerardo Gonzalez
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
This paper analyzes how Cuban entrepreneurs perceive the importance of their role in Cuba's reintegration into the Caribbean. In the context of recent Cuban-Caribbean economic relations, Caribbean entrepreneurs have taken the lead, and Cuban entrepreneurs are trying to conduct business under changing and challenging conditions. As the Cuban economy gradually adapts to new national and international realities, an increasing number of Cuban firms are beginning to participate directly and actively in Cuba's external economic relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Cuba and Caribbean

3286. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

3287. Discourse Analysis as Foreign Policy Theory

Author:
Ole Wæver
Publication Date:
11-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Where is Germany heading? So we have been asking ourselves since the wall fell. We had been reasonably calmed down: they were apparently not out for new adventures of their own. No Eastward going it alone -- neither in Eastern Europe, nor with the Russians. Nor any autonomous power politics. On the contrary, Germany has primarily made itself noticed in global politics through its continued restraint, from half-hearted support in the Gulf War to qualms over participation in UN operations.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Germany

3288. The Institutional Terrain of the European Union

Author:
Neil Fligstein and Jason McNichol
Publication Date:
11-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
One of the central issues in making sense of the European Union is the question of the degree to which it functions as an autonomous state. One pole of this debate conceives of the EU as a supranational entity while the other argues that it remains an intergovernmental bargain. Here, we propose to analyze the EU in terms of the structuring of its policy domains. 12 of 17 domains appear organized by nongovernmental organizations. We conclude that while the governments retain direct control over important parts of the EU, they have allowed most policy domains at the EU level to become autonomous.
Topic:
International Relations and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

3289. Mending the Ozone Layer: The Role of Transnational Policy Networks

Author:
Reiner Grundmann
Publication Date:
12-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Successful international cooperation is a puzzling problem for social scientists. The ozone layer has been subject to both international treaties and domestic legislation. It is one of the foremost success stories in international relations, yet insufficiently understood. In this paper I argue that existing approaches - including the sophisticated and highly acclaimed epistemic community approach - do not take the underlying theoretical problems seriously enough. Departing from the epistemic community approach, I propose a framework for a network analysis combining interests, knowledge and power into a coherent model, which is derived from this case but can apply to similar cases sharing similar characteristics. It is argued that one of two rivaling policy networks gained hegemony over the other, mainly by winning over allies from the competing network. Ultimately this contributed to the competing network's breakdown.
Topic:
International Relations, Environment, and International Cooperation

3290. A United States Policy for the Changing Realities of East Asia

Author:
Donald Emmerson, Henry Rowen, Michel Oksenberg, Daniel Okimoto, James Raphael, Thomas Rohlen, and Michael H. Armacost
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, the power and prestige of the United States in East Asia have suffered a worrisome degree of erosion. The erosion is, in part, the by-product of long-run secular trends, such as structural shifts in the balance of power caused by the pacesetting growth of East Asian economies. But the decline has been aggravated by shortcomings in U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly the lack of a coherent strategy and a clear-cut set of policy priorities for the post-Cold War environment. If these shortcomings are not corrected, the United States runs the risk of being marginalized in East Asia--precisely at a time when our stakes in the region are as essential as those in any area of the world. What is needed, above all, is a sound, consistent, and publicly articulated strategy, one which holds forth the prospect of serving as the basis for a sustainable, nonpartisan domestic consensus. The elements of an emerging national consensus can be identified as follows:
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia