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11. The Logic of Foreign Policy: An Explanatory Model for Strategic Volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy Under the AKP Rule

Author:
Erol Kurubaş
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The AKP government in Türkiye has been following a foreign policy based on values and discourses rather than power and interests. However, despite the lack of a radical change in international conditions, contrasting approaches in terms of the nature of foreign policy, strategic orientation, foreign relations, and international image have been adopted by the same government over short intervals of time. While a first period was marked by a value-laden transformation, a second was marked by righteous and romantic discourse and actions pointing to more value-based mentality. In a third period, foreign policy was guided by a logic based on a populist and opportunist approach. This paper calls each of these bases that shape foreign policy a different logic of foreign policy. Accordingly, while the logic of the first period was constructed in “the modified base logic” and led to the quest for strategic depth in foreign policy, the logic of the second became “righteous-romantic” and resulted in “strategic instability”. The logic of third, on the other hand, was shaped by its reactive form and led to “strategic uncertainty”. In this way, the paper argues that the strategic volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy can be explained by the elements that constitute the logic of foreign policy and the interactions among them.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, AKP, and Volatility
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

12. Russia-Africa Relations amid Global Geopolitical Shifts

Author:
Wojciech Kotowicz
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article examines the dynamics of Russia’s relations with African states against the backdrop of the post-2022 transformation of the international system. The research objective is to identify the geopolitical motivations behind Russia’s engagement in Africa, assess the instruments used to implement this policy, and delineate the prospects and constraints for Russia-Africa relations under conditions of growing multipolarity. The author argues that Russia’s expansion in Africa – though catalyzed by the international isolation resulting from its aggression against Ukraine – forms part of a broader strategy to assemble an alternative, anti-Western bloc in which Africa plays a key legitimating and symbolic role. The analysis covers the historical foundations of Russia-Africa relations from the Cold War era, the geopolitical drivers of Russia’s post-2022 engagement, and the instruments of Russian policy toward Africa, with particular attention to the military, economic, and information domains. The study shows that African states – especially military juntas in the Sahel – are not passive objects of Russian manipulation but active players pursuing their own survival strategies by diversifying international partnerships. The material underpinnings of Russia’s engagement, however, remain fragile: limited investment, a focus on extractive and defense sectors, and rising reputational costs indicate that Moscow is maximizing influence at minimal cost. The conclusion holds that the durability of Russia’s presence in Africa will be tested by the Kremlin’s capacity to sustain engagement amid a protracted war in Ukraine, by the evolving expectations of African publics, and by the response of the West and other global actors intensifying the competition for influence on the continent.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Africa and Russia

13. Relations of the Russian Federation with African States in Russian Strategic Documents – Political and Military Dimension

Author:
Krzysztof Żęgota
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article examines the evolution of the Russian Federation’s relations with African states through the lens of Russian strategic documents and foreign policy practices. It argues that Russia’s contemporary engagement in Africa reflects the implementation of priorities defined in successive national security strategies since 1997. Moscow’s approach integrates political and military dimensions, aiming to restore great-power status, secure geopolitical footholds, and counter Western influence. Politically, Russia presents itself as an anti-colonial partner advocating multipolarity and sovereignty, while militarily it strengthens ties through arms trade, training, and the deployment of private military contractors. Case studies of Egypt, Mali, and the Central African Republic illustrate how Russia’s strategic narratives have been translated into concrete diplomatic and security partnerships. In conclusion, the article argues that Russia’s policy toward Africa represents both a continuation of Soviet-era ambitions and a pragmatic adaptation to the geopolitical realities of the twenty-first century. By selectively deploying limited resources and focusing on strategically significant states, Russia has managed to expand its influence on the African continent despite growing competition from other international actors.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, and Military Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa and Russia

14. Natural Resources of the Western Sahara Region as a Factor of International Conflicts

Author:
Bohdana Haiduk and Yuliya Lemko
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The study places particular emphasis on the role of Western Sahara’s natural resources in international relations, with special attention given to the conflict associated with the occupation by the Kingdom of Morocco. The territory of Western Sahara contains a variety of natural resources, such as phosphates, fisheries, and minor reserves of oil and gas, which are important for the energy sector, among others. These resources have become a significant factor in geopolitical processes at both regional and international levels. The paper highlights the specific features of the legal regulation regarding the use of these resources within the territory. The research examines the impact of natural resources on the political process of legitimizing Morocco’s occupation of the territory and analyzes the main export directions of these resources. Furthermore, the study characterizes Western Sahara’s resources as instruments of foreign policy. The role of the United Nations in addressing the conflict is explored, alongside an analysis of the European Union’s position on the Western Sahara dispute. Finally, the paper evaluates the involvement of international actors in the conflict.
Topic:
International Relations, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Legitimization
Political Geography:
Africa, Morocco, and Western Sahara

15. The European Union – Africa Partnership

Author:
Waldemar Tomaszewski
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
This article examines the current state of the EU’s partnership with African countries. It analyzes the state of political and economic cooperation, as well as cooperation in building civil society. The article’s structure encompasses the origins of EU-Africa relations, the main areas of cooperation, and the anticipated directions of their development. The research primarily utilizes institutional, legal, and systemic approaches. Historical methods are used to a lesser extent. The main goal is to determine the scale of EU assistance to African countries and the priority sectors of cooperation. The main hypothesis is: Africa’s importance in the international system is growing rapidly, which is why the European Union is redefining its partnership with Africa, recognizing the continent as an equal partner. This hypothesis was positively verified during the analysis. The article is based primarily on information contained in official documents of EU and African Union institutions. Furthermore, available literature relevant to the subject matter was utilized.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

16. Starr Forum: The Future of US-China Relations

Author:
Nicholas Burns and Yasheng Huang
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Starr Forum: The Future of US-China Relations | Tuesday, February 17, 2026 Speakers: Nicholas Burns is the Goodman Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He is the founder and faculty chair of the Future of Diplomacy Project and a faculty affiliate at Harvard’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. Burns worked in the United States government for over three decades, serving six presidents and nine secretaries of state. Most recently, he served as the US ambassador to the People's Republic of China from 2021-2025, leading public servants from forty-eight US government agencies at the US mission to China in overseeing one of America's most important bilateral relationships. Moderator: Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He also serves as the faculty director of the MIT-China Program at the Center for International Studies. From 2013 to 2017, he served as an associate dean of MIT Sloan’s GlobalPartnership programs and its Action Learning initiatives. His previous appointments include faculty positions at the University of Michigan and at Harvard Business School. Huang is the author of 11 books in both English and Chinese and of many academic papers. His most recent book, “The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to its Decline”, was a 2023 Best Book of the Year by Foreign Affairs magazine.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

17. Starr Forum: New World Disorder: What’s the Humanitarian Perspective?

Author:
David Miliband and John Deutch
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Starr Forum: New World Disorder: What’s the Humanitarian Perspective? | Thursday, April 9, 2026 Speaker: David Miliband, president, International Rescue Committee (IRC), and former foreign secretary for the United Kingdom (2007-2010). He oversees the IRC’s operations in more than 40 crisis-affected countries and its refugee resettlement and assistance programs throughout Europe and the Americas. He is a 1987 graduate of Oxford, with a degree in philosophy, politics, and economics, and earned a master’s degree in political science in 1989 from MIT. Moderator: John Deutch is an American civil servant and physical chemist. He was the United States deputy secretary of defense from 1994 to 1995 and director of Central Intelligence from May 10, 1995, until December 15, 1996. He is an emeritus Institute Professor at MIT.
Topic:
International Relations, Geopolitics, International Order, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. Implementing Effective U.S.-China Economic Engagement Channels

Author:
Brendan Kelly and Scott Shaw
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
As the state of U.S.-China relations has undergone significant fluctuations over the past decade, so has the structure and frequency of economic engagements between the two countries. The number and scale of such dialogues came under heavy criticism from Republican and Democratic China hawks alike—with one notable critic famously tying the rise of U.S.-China dialogues to the rise of the U.S. trade deficit with China. Some of this criticism misses the mark, however, and underestimates the value of select, well-conceived communication channels. A valid question is whether these dialogues lost the forest for the trees. U.S. officials consistently struggled to move the needle on big trade and investment issues, absent large carrots and sticks, such as WTO accession or significant tariffs. The U.S. government needs to exercise discipline in ensuring that dialogue mechanisms advance U.S. national interests and are not used by China to distract from or delay meaningful progress on core issues. Washington must also be clear-eyed that such dialogues or engagements will likely not “change China” or spur big policy and structural changes. Yet it is equally problematic that from the early stages of the pandemic in 2020 through mid-2023, the governments of the world’s two largest economies, with the world’s most complex trading relationship, had almost no engagement on economic and commercial issues. Just as national security experts emphasize the importance of U.S.-China military-to-military communications to mitigate misunderstandings and security crises, sustained channels for commercial and financial dialogues are critical for managing economic frictions. It is therefore remarkable that for multiple years the two sides lacked any such mechanisms to address commercial, financial and other economic issues. In its last year and a half, the Biden administration broadly addressed these areas through its Economic, Financial and Commercial Issues Working Groups, alongside technical consultations on issues such as export control enforcement, trade secrets, and anti-money laundering. These channels, with select cabinet-level meetings, enabled the U.S. to pursue “competitive actions”—such as export controls, tariffs, and sanctions—while maintaining a largely stable relationship. The Biden administration struggled, however, to make significant progress on the broader obstacles facing U.S. firms and exports in China, even as it was able to resolve certain company-specific issues and defuse some tensions arising from policy misunderstandings. After a sharp deterioration in bilateral economic ties in spring 2025—with tariffs essentially reaching trade embargo levels and export controls shutting down production lines in each economy—the second Trump administration has arrived at a tentative equilibrium with China on trade and technology issues. The Trump administration has an opportunity to strengthen this equilibrium, mitigate volatility, and advance U.S. interests by rebuilding and institutionalizing selective channels on key economic and technology issues. The goal should not be to return to the previous broad dialogue architecture, but rather to establish narrow mechanisms that support U.S. de-risking, reinforce policy discipline, and, with modest expectations, derive economic benefits for the U.S. from the relationship. Cabinet-level relationships with China’s top economic decisionmakers—that also address bureaucratic mismatches and silos in the two systems—are of utmost importance as the leadership dynamics and policy agendas of both governments continue to evolve. Communication mechanisms on macroeconomic, financial sector, and commercial issues have been essential—and as economic and national security issues have moved to the foreground, channels to discuss sanctions, export controls, and investment issues have become necessary as well. The Boards of Trade and Investment proposed by the two governments in recent discussions could serve as an organizing structure for most of these channels, depending on their participants and agenda. This paper reviews the historical evolution of U.S.-China economic dialogues and the key lessons learned—to suggest targeted areas where ongoing communications under these mechanisms can be most important, how these should be structured, and how to make U.S. economic statecraft toward China most effective. We appreciate the insightful inputs and comments on the paper from Craig Allen, Wendy Cutler and Paul Haenle.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Macroeconomics, Trade, Donald Trump, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

19. Hawks remain hawks, and doves remain doves

Author:
Hans Mouritzen
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This DIIS Working Paper analyses convergences and divergences in Nordic countries’ relations with Russia since the Cold War. It then reflects on the main determinants behind European states’ Russia policies: their location in relation to Russia and their historical experiences with Russia Since these determinants are ultrastable, the hawks remain hawks and the doves remain doves, and some stay in-between.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and History
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

20. In the Wake of the War on Iran: A Chance to Shape a New Regional Order

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The war on Iran has underscored the need for countries in the region to pursue a new consensus that addresses past failures, takes recent developments into account, and is grounded in rejecting policies of exclusion or imposition among its members.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Regional Politics, Regional Security, and 2026 Iran War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations