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3181. The Dynamics of Coordination

Author:
Marc Sommers
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
This study takes a fresh look at coordination dynamics by exploring two situations that were noteworthy both for the difficult challenges humanitarian organizations faced and for their innovative responses. The cases shed light on coordination in general and two contexts in particular: coordination for a country (Sierra Leone in the 1990s) and coordination for refugee camps (Rwandan refugees in Ngara District, Tanzania).
Topic:
International Relations, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Tanzania and Rwanda

3182. Lebanon: Key Battleground for Middle East Policy

Author:
Stephen Zunes, Tom Barry, Martha Honey, and As'ad Abukhalil
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
U.S. involvement with Lebanon has extended over several decades. The Middle East was a key battleground during the cold war era, the legacy of which continues to this day. The U.S. sent combat troops into Lebanon in 1958 and again in 1982 to support unpopular right-wing presidents. The U.S. has largely supported Israeli attacks against Lebanon, furthering Lebanese resentment of the U.S. role in the region.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Lebanon

3183. Redefining Sovereignty . The Use of Force After the End of the Cold War. New Options, Lawful and Legitimate?

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The conference was organised by the Institute for International Affairs (IAI) with the support of the Centre for High Defence Studies (CASD), the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the NATO Office for Information and Press and the Thyssen Foundation. It was held in Rome, at the Centre for High Defence Studies, on 24 and 25 November 2000.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, Cold War, Human Rights, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Germany, and Rome

3184. Report of the Conference on "Ukraine's European Choice and the Partnership with Poland and Italy"

Author:
Giovanni Gasparini
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), Italy's major international affairs think tank organised an international conference on “Ukraine's European Choice and the Partnership with Poland and Italy”, in cooperation with the Ukrainian and the Polish Embassies in Rome. The event took place in Rome on 22nd March 2000 and was supported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the NATO Office of Information and Press, the Office of the European Commission in Rome, and the Centre for European and International Studies and the Institute of International Relations, Kyiv.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Italy, and Rome

3185. The Paradox of Disconnected Coalitions

Author:
J. Steven Brams, A. Michael Jones, and Marc D. Kilgour
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
The paradox of disconnected coalitions is that "disconnected" coalitions can arise from the "connected" (i.e., single-peaked) preferences of as few as five or six players. Two models of coalition formation are analyzed in which the paradox can occur, in both of which players coalesce when they all find each other mutually acceptable: Fallback (FB): Players seek coalition partners by descending lower and lower in their preferences until a majority coalition emerges. Build-Up (BU): Same as FB, except that when nonmajority subcoalitions form, they fuse into composite players, and the descent restarts.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy

3186. Reassessing the Logic of Anarchy: Rationality versus Reflexivity

Author:
Ewan Harrison
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Drawing on the insights of constructivism and recent attempts to develop a liberal model of international relations, this paper compares neorealism, institutionalism and liberalism in terms of their competing conceptualisations of the composition and dynamics of the international system. It argues that prominent institutionalists have mistakenly interpreted neorealism as a rationalist model of the international system in order to develop their own arguments countering its central propositions. Rather than relying on rational actor assumptions, neorealism instead adopts a reflexive logic focusing on processes of identity construction and socialisation arising from the generative consequences of international anarchy. Thus whilst neorealism and liberalism differ fundamentally in terms of their assessment of the nature and long term consequences of international anarchy, they may actually be closer to each other in terms of their conceptualisation of system composition and dynamics than neorealism and institutionalism. On the basis of this argument, the paper rejects a 'linear' understanding of the relationship between neorealism, institutionalism and liberalism in which institutionalism is seen as providing the point of synthesis on a spectrum than runs between neorealism and liberalism. Instead, it proposes a 'triangular' understanding of the relationship between these three models of the international system in which the debates between neorealists and institutionalists constitute its rationalist leg, and debates between neorealists and liberals constitute its reflexivist leg. Understood in these terms, liberalism's focus on the generative consequences of international anarchy and the overall trajectory of identity construction and socialisation within the international system is likely to be more productive in the search for a general synthesis of competing theories of international relations than institutionalists' attempts to refine rationalist models.
Topic:
International Relations

3187. The Global Trend of Civil Politics: The World Handbook IV Project

Author:
J. Craig Jenkins, Zeynep Benderlioglu, and Charles Lewis Taylor
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Contemporary discussions of global civil politics provide wildly different pictures of contemporary trends. Some see the end of the Cold War as unleashing a series of ethnic wars, geno/politicides, state breakdowns, rising criminality and a gradual descent into civil chaos (Rosenau 1990; Crevald 1991; Kaplan 2000). Others proclaim an "end of history" with the spread of democracy, capitalism, social peace and growing civility (Fukuyama 1991). Paralleling the latter, some have advanced a “social movement society” thesis (Meyer and Tarrow 1998) arguing that the globalization of civil society has internationalized social movements and protest, creating new transnational social movements and the creation of a truly global civil society. In contrast, others see a narrowing of the civil order with new mini-nationalisms, spreading ethnic intolerance and the rise of new civilizational struggles (Huntington 1996).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Globalization, and Politics

3188. East Asia and the United States: Current Status and Five-Year Outlook

Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The National Intelligence Council and the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress held a one-day unclassified conference on this topic on 17 February 2000, at the Thomas Jefferson Building of the Library of Congress. Seven papers by nongovernment specialists and 11 commentaries by Intelligence Community specialists examined: The likely development of greater divergence or convergence between key East Asian states and the United States over US policies and interests in the region. Whether divergence or convergence between East Asian states and the United States was more likely on security, economic, or political/values questions. In what ways East Asian states would be likely to collaborate in opposition to US policies and interests. Sixty US Intelligence Community, other Executive Branch, congressional, and nongovernment experts participated actively in discussions following the formal papers and commentaries, reinforcing the findings presented below.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States and East Asia

3189. Prime Minister Barak's First Year: Diplomacy and Politics

Author:
Zalman Shoval
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Prime Minister Ehud Barak's tenure started out with almost everything going his way. He had what was often, though misleadingly, described as a "landslide victory" in the 1999 elections (though, in truth, Jewish voters gave him only a slim 3.2 percent majority over Netanyahu - compared to the almost 12 percent margin by which Netanyahu had defeated Peres in the previous elections). Nonetheless, it is true that Barak achieved better electoral results than most other prime ministers in Israeli history. As a result, no Israeli prime minister in recent memory had begun his term with a greater degree of goodwill from different segments of the population - including many who had voted for the other candidate.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Diplomacy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

3190. Patterns of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa—A simple test of the new trade theory with multinationals

Author:
Lars C. Svindal and Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In this study, we present an empirical survey of the patterns of trade and FDI in Africa based on a sample of 28 countries and their transactions with the OECD countries. These patterns are used to test whether the predictions of the new trade theory with multinationals as described by Markusen and Venables (1995,1998) fit the development in Africa. The theory states that multinational production will gradually outgrow trade as countries converge in terms of income, yet our econometric study gives only week evidence supporting such a pattern. Alternative explanations are also investigated,and it is shown that trade barriers, geographical distance, income per capita and access to ocean explain much of the variation in trade and FDI in Africa.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

3191. CIAO: Middle East — Arafat's Ambitions

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

3192. CIAO: US/China — Trade Relations

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky and China's Prime Minister Zhu Rongji this month held talks in Beijing to discuss China's accession to the WTO. Beyond opening up commercial opportunities to US firms, the award of permanent normal trade relations status to China, and its prospective accession to the WTO, should in theory add predictability to the bilateral trade relationship.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Beijing

3193. United States -- Elian Endgame?

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Attorney General Janet Reno yesterday ordered the Miami-based extended family of Elian Gonzalez to hand him over to his Cuban father. Reno's actions are expected to bring an end to the custody drama surrounding Elian, who was brought to the United States after coastguards found him floating in the Atlantic Ocean after a failed attempt to escape from Cuba with his mother. Although superficially a dispute between the United States and Cuba, argument about the case has centred upon the demands of the Cuban-American community in Florida, a section of the electorate of sufficient importance to oblige Vice-President Al Gore to make his most public break with the administration in which he serves.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and Cuba

3194. Building a Partnership, Turkey and the European Union

Author:
David Barchard
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This paper is an attempt to identify some of the main practical issues and themes involved in Turkey's accession process in the run-up to the appearance of the Accession Partnership document in early November 2000. It is also an attempt to explore ways of bridging the gap between Turkish and EU attitudes on the political issues that have to be resolved before full membership negotiations can be started.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Partnerships, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

3195. Coming Home or Moving Home? "Westernising" Narratives in Finnish Foreign Policy and the Re-interpretation of Past Identities

Author:
Chris Browning
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War it is widely accepted that Finnish foreign policy has oriented increasingly towards the 'West', the most pertinent and concrete example of which, to date, has been accession to the EU. Implicit in many commentaries is the assumption that this orientation is a natural phenomenon, the natural culmination of an effervescent Finnish 'Western' cultural identity. Whilst the rhetorical style perhaps differs espousers of this view draw on Herderian and Hegelian assumptions, essentially arguing that after the unfortunate interruption and deviation from its true path occasioned by the Cold War the Finnish 'national spirit' is now back on its rightful historical and linear course to national fulfilment and blossoming. Looking into the nation's history such discourses see Finland's cultural and political roots as lying in the West and hence posit that with the break-up of the Soviet Union Finland is returning to these organic origins in Western civilisation, with all the effects for foreign policy such a 'Western' identity will entail. This is what we may term the 'Westernising' narrative of current debates about Finnish identity and Finnish foreign policy. On this basis the Finnish Cold War foreign policy of neutrality is characterised, either as having been a total aberration and betrayal of the Finnish 'Western' Self, or, and perhaps more commonly, as having been the best possible option available to the Finnish elite at the time: constrained by the dictates of power, agile Finnish political leaders were able to manoeuvre the Finnish ship of state through the various pitfalls and traps waiting to beguile them in the stormy waters of great power Cold War politics. Now free of such power dictates these current 'Westernising' discourses are attempting to push Finnish foreign policy towards the West, legitimising such a move to the Finnish public and the wider international audience on the grounds of Finland's claimed historical Western identity. To note the title of this panel discussion, “Defining New Identities Between East and West', for Westernising discourses there is no between about it. As an organically Western state why would Finland want to be between East and West any longer? On this basis the Finnish neutrality of the Cold War period merely disguised the true Finnish identity, a ruse so that Finland could in the future once more live as its true self when conditions once again permitted.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Finland

3196. North Korea: How Much Reform and Whose Characteristics?

Author:
Heather Smith
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper is the first of a three part project on economic reform on the Korean Peninsula. In this first paper, I focus on the question which has been subject to considerable recent debate, namely whether collapse of North Korea is imminent. In accessing this question the paper discusses the three structural bottlenecks now thought to be severely constraining the North Korean economy following a series of external shocks in the late 1980s, food shortages, energy constraints and a limited capacity to earn foreign exchange. Much speculation has focused on the deterioration in the food economy and that a prolongation of current food shortages will see North Korea collapse. One contribution of this paper lies in its attempt to analyze North Korean agricultural production and food consumption patterns using data made available by North Korea to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization. Several anomalies are found between this data and recent World Food Program assessments of food conditions and estimates of nutritional requirements which suggest caution in drawing a too deterministic link between current food shortages and collapse. The paper then discusses the role of international and regional players in prolonging North Korea's economic survival. In particular, the terms under which North Korea signed onto the 1994 Agreed Framework, a return to favorable trading terms with China, and North Korea's attempts aimed at expanding economic ties with the international community, could sustain North Korea at subsistence levels for the next 5 years at least. If collapse is not imminent in the short to medium term, then the policy implications that emerge from such a scenario are clear: that the international community will need to continue to pursue a policy approach of managing tension reduction and the integration of North Korea into the international community. Whether the North Korea regime will embrace fundamental reforms needed to ensure longer term survival remains difficult to judge. In the final section of the paper, several reasons are advanced as to why the window of opportunity for North Korea to embrace reform is now greater than at any time in the past.
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia

3197. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Author:
Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Growth targets for emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by developing countries should be part of the effort to mitigate global climate change. This policy brief advances an approach for determining appropriate targets. They should be neither so tight as to retard economic development nor so generous as to confer enormous windfall gains. But where in this range should these targets be set? A fair allocation for potential new participants would fit the present pattern of emissions reductions agreed among industrialized countries at Kyoto in December 1997. Richer countries, in effect, agreed to make bigger sacrifices (on average) than did poor ones. Given uncertainty about the future, however, fixing the precise quantitative emission target now would create great risks regarding the ultimate stringency of the target. It would raise concerns that a target could turn out either unexpectedly stringent—unintentionally constraining economic development—or unexpectedly lax—resulting in emissions greater than in the absence of an agreement. Indexing emission targets to a country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth would moderate the effects of uncertainty.
Topic:
International Relations, Emerging Markets, and Environment

3198. Blunder in the Balkans: The Clinton Administration's Bungled War against Serbia

Author:
Christopher Layne
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Clinton administration has made one miscalculation after another in dealing with the Kosovo crisis. U.S. officials and their NATO colleagues never understood the historical and emotional importance of Kosovo to the Serbia n people, believing instead that Belgrade's harsh repression of the ethnic Albanian secessionist movement in Kosovo merely reflected the will of President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia. The administration's foreign policy team mistakenly concluded that, under a threat of air strikes, the Yugoslav government would sign a dictate d peace accord (the Rambouillet agreement) to be implemented by a NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo. Even if Milosevic initially refused to sign the Rambouillet agreement, administration leaders believed that Belgrade would relent after a brief “demonstration” bombing campaign. Those calculations proved to be disastrously wrong.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

3199. The Election of Ishihara: A Symbol of Rising Nationalism in Japan?

Author:
Christopher P. Hood
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Ishihara Shintaro, known for his strong views particularly on Japan's relationship with the United States, became Governor of Tokyo on 11 April 1999. This paper considers the significance of his election, and whether it symbolizes a rise in nationalism in Japan.
Topic:
International Relations, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Israel, and Tokyo

3200. The International System of the 21st Century

Author:
Bertel Heurlin
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In 1969, 30 years ago, a large portion of the earth's population had to revise their conception of the world. Pictures of Earth as seen from the moon taken by American astronauts made a considerable impression. The pictures portrayed a very beautiful planet - shining, inviting, sunny, fertile, full of life and beauty. This was Spaceship Earth, a spaceship apparently characterised more by nature than by culture. The spaceship Earth appears hospitable and yet vulnerable. It faces space, communicating. It is a spaceship the population of which lives on the outside in stead of within.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation