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152. The assault on Tripoli: Haftar’s military calculations and the political ramifications
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Faced with a failed offensive and weakened political influence, Haftar may decide to focus his efforts on eastern Libya, which would give added impetus to partition and deepen existing divisions.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Tripoli
153. Turkish municipal elections: AKP victory tastes like defeat in major cities
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Overall, the AKP’s vote share in the 30 biggest cities declined from 2014, continuing a trend seen first in the 2017 referendum. The reversal in AKP fortunes is most evident in Istanbul, often considered a microcosm of Turkey.
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
154. Turkish municipal elections: AKP victory tastes like defeat in major cities
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Overall, the AKP’s vote share in the 30 biggest cities declined from 2014, continuing a trend seen first in the 2017 referendum. The reversal in AKP fortunes is most evident in Istanbul, often considered a microcosm of Turkey.
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
155. Sudan demonstrations between ad-hoc economic measures and far-reaching political changes
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The conflict in Sudan is now between two competing visions: where Bashir believes no political change is needed to address the crisis, the protestors are adamant that it can only be resolved with his departure. The question is which of these two positions will be victorious
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Sudan
156. Who will Save Jerusalem:The Dichotomy of Arab Politics in Trump's Era!
- Author:
- Ramzy Baroud
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Deal of the Century will allow Trump/Kushner, Netanyahu and bin Salman to merely buy time, each for his own domestic benefit. It is likely to split up an Arab camp that has served as the American vanguard.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
157. The Algerian Crisis: Origins and Prospects for a “Second Republic”
- Author:
- Yahia H. Zoubir
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Hirak has been the relegation of the Islamists because the protesters showed no interest in an Islamist ideology. They are opposed to foreign interference and have warned the West, particularly the former colonial power France, from interfering in their movement.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
158. Russia’s Energy Strategy
- Author:
- Tatiana Mitrova
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The fate of the “Russian Energy Strategy Up to 2035” paper—a key document defining the country`s strategic priorities in this critically important industry and submitted by Russia’s Energy Ministry every five years—illustrates well the contradictory predicament of Russia’s energy sector. In 2015, after two years of preparations, the latest version was submitted to the government, but national authorities have not approved it until now. Behind the scenes, many conflicting interests prevent the setting of a clear and coherent long-term vision.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia
159. Beyond Control: Iran and its Opponents Locked in a Lopsided Confrontation
- Author:
- Borzou Daragahi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- For much of its four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been blessed with a weak political opposition. While Iran has faced competent and powerful foreign enemies—such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the United States, and Israel—its Iranian political challengers, both domestically and abroad, have been largely fragmented, unrealistic in their aims, and sometimes as authoritarian as the regime. But, though few credible Iran watchers argue that opposition groups and figures arrayed against Tehran’s establishment pose a serious threat, Iran treats them as if they are mortal dangers to the regime. This paper attempts to sketch out the landscape of the various major political opposition groups, and begin to grapple with the question of why Iran perceives them as such a challenge
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
160. The Population of Russia, Today and Tomorrow
- Author:
- Gaiane Safarova
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Like every country, Russia has a very specific demographic footprint; its fertility, mortality, and migration rates, as well as its age composition, all affect its performance domestically and on the world stage. Russia’s current demographics were shaped by its history, particularly crises like World War II, and its future will be deeply affected by conditions like its dropping fertility rate and aging population
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia
161. The Melians’ Revenge: How Small, Frontline, European States Can Employ Emerging Technology to Defend Against Russia
- Author:
- T. X. Hammes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Perhaps the most famous quote from Thucydides is “the strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must.”1 For thousands of years, it has been accepted that the weak must comply or face the fate of the Melians. Today, the technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution may be revising that truth. It is creating a wide range of small, smart, cheap weapons that can provide small states combat power previously reserved to major powers
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
162. European Energy Security and Transatlantic Cooperation: A Current Assessment
- Author:
- Richard L. Morningstar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This brief emerged from discussions during an Atlantic Council Global Energy Center roundtable on European energy security held in Brussels on March 27, 2019, as well as other events and individual meetings with government officials, private sector executives, and leading academics in the global energy sector. The collective dialogues and key takeaways are reflected in this brief. Because the conversations took place under the Chatham House Rule, the information will not be attributed to any specific individual. The brief will provide a current assessment of EU energy security focusing on the role of gas markets, while future briefs in the European Energy Security series will take a closer look at other critical issues impacting European energy security. Following these briefs, a final report in 2020 will propose specific recommendations for the US and EU governments on how to address transatlantic energy security issues.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
163. Russia and Iran in Syria— a Random Partnership or an Enduring Alliance?
- Author:
- Michel Duclos
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Russia and Iran are allies in Syria not out of mutual sympathy, but for pragmatic reasons. According to many reports, Iranian leaders—notably including Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Al-Quds force of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC)—were instrumental in convincing Vladimir Putin to send his air force to Syria and save Bashar al-Assad’s skin in September 2015
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Iran
164. When the Friend of My Friends Is Not My Friend
- Author:
- Mark Katz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- uring the Cold War, the Soviet Union posed a challenge to the United States throughout the entire world, including in the Middle East. Soviet activity in the Middle East, though, was also a challenge for many US allies in the region, and beyond. Soviet influence in the Middle East expanded during the 1950s and 1960s, in particular, as many in the Arab world became angry about US support for Israel, and as several pro-Western Arab governments were overthrown and replaced by anti-Western ones that actively sought Soviet support. Due to several factors, however, many of the gains made by the Soviets in the Middle East ended up being lost. These included: the defection of Gamal Abdel Nasser’s successor in Egypt, Anwar Sadat, from the Soviet to the US camp; Washington’s successful 1970s-era diplomacy in bringing about an Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement; genuine fear of the Soviet threat on the part of Saudi Arabia and other Arab monarchies; the 1979 Iranian Revolution, in which the downfall of a pro-Western regime did not lead to the rise of a pro-Soviet one, but to the rise of one that was both anti-American and anti-Soviet; and, finally, the collapse of both communism and the Soviet Union itself from 1989 to 1991
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
165. Beyond Control: Iran and its Opponents Locked in a Lopsided Confrontation
- Author:
- Borzou Daragahi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- For much of its four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been blessed with a weak political opposition. While Iran has faced competent and powerful foreign enemies—such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the United States, and Israel—its Iranian political challengers, both domestically and abroad, have been largely fragmented, unrealistic in their aims, and sometimes as authoritarian as the regime. But, though few credible Iran watchers argue that opposition groups and figures arrayed against Tehran’s establishment pose a serious threat, Iran treats them as if they are mortal dangers to the regime. This paper attempts to sketch out the landscape of the various major political opposition groups, and begin to grapple with the question of why Iran perceives them as such a challenge.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
166. Transatlantic Air Power and What to Do Now: Key to Deterrence, Key to Collective Defense
- Author:
- Frank Gorenc
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- As the world enters an era of great-power competition, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faces a renewed challenge from an old adversary. A Europe whole, free, and at peace is now at risk as Russian aggression challenges the traditional rules-based world order. Russia’s activities in and against Ukraine and Georgia, rampant intrusion on Western democratic processes and political discourse, blatant assassination attempts on NATO soil, support for rogue regimes in Syria and Iran, and military deployments and force accumulation in Kaliningrad and Crimea, as well as in the Sea of Azov, demonstrate that the threat is as real and compelling as it ever was
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
167. Navigating the Energy Transition
- Author:
- David Koranyi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- As energy markets and technologies rapidly change, international oil companies (IOCs) are facing a set of interconnected challenges that will fundamentally affect their business models. From changes in the supply and demand picture, to shifts in how energy is produced and consumed, to public pressure to decrease greenhouse gas footprints, companies have a wide range of issues to consider as they decide how to prepare for an unpredictable future. In a new issue brief, “Navigating the Energy Transition: International Oil Company Diversification Strategies,” Global Energy Center Senior Fellow David Koranyi provides a macro picture of select IOC’s strategic (re)thinking and explores some of the strategies IOCs have undertaken to diversify their portfolios and prepare for the unfolding energy transition.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
168. Evolution of the protection of civilians in UN peacekeeping
- Author:
- Lisa Sharland
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- his year marks twenty years since the Security Council added the ‘protection of civilians in armed conflict’ to its agenda and authorised the first UN peacekeeping mission to explicitly protect civilians. Yet efforts to carry forward that mandate in the field over the last two decades have been mixed. While there is consensus among the member states within the UN that peacekeeping missions should protect, there remain different views among the various stakeholders on the limits and expectations of peacekeepers when it comes to implementing this mandate. And the consequences for the civilians on the ground—which expect protection from the UN—can be dire.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
169. The post-caliphate Salafi-jihadi environment
- Author:
- Isaac Kfir
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- In 2019, the global Salafi-jihadi architecture is very different from the one that emerged in September 2001, when transnational terrorism burst on to the international scene, or July 2014, when ISIL controlled more than 34,000 square miles in Syria and Iraq and thousands of young men and women were flocking to be part of its ‘caliphate’.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
170. Protecting critical national infrastructure in an era of IT and OT convergence
- Author:
- Rajiv Shah
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Today, we’re seeing an increasing convergence between the digital and the physical worlds. This is sometimes referred to as the convergence of IT (information technology) and OT (operational technology)—devices that monitor physical effects, control them, or both. More and more devices are becoming interconnected to create the ‘internet of things’
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
171. Between Japan and Southeast Asia: Australia and US-China economic rivalry
- Author:
- Malcolm Cook
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Recently, the economic front of US–China major-power rivalry has deepened and expanded beyond the legalistic confines of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Many in Australia, which has the US as its security ally and main source and destination of investment and China as its main trading partner, are rightly concerned by this evolution.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
172. The threats to the European Union’s economic sovereignty
- Author:
- Jean Pisani-Ferry
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Memo to the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The authors describe the current context and the increasing interlinkages between economics and power politics and the role to play in reinforcing and defending Europe’s economic sovereignty
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe
173. Redefining Europe’s economic sovereignty
- Author:
- Mark Leonard
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This Policy Contribution delves into the position of the EU in the current global order. China and the United States increasingly trying to gain geopolitical advantage using their economic might. The authors examine the specific problems that China and the US pose for European economic sovereignty, and consider how the EU and its member states can better protect European economic sovereignty
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
174. A strategic agenda for the new EU leadership
- Author:
- Maria Demertzis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Memo to the presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament. 'A strategic agenda for the new EU leadership' by Maria Demertzis, André Sapir and Guntram Wolff is the first of our 2019 Bruegel memos to the new presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament. Focusing on the most important economic questions at EU level, these Bruegel memos are intended to be a strategic to-do list, outlining the state of affairs that will greet the new Commission
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe
175. China and the world trade organisation: towards a better fit
- Author:
- Petros C. Mavroidis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- China’s participation in the WTO has been anything but smooth, as its self-proclaimed socialist market economy system has alienated its trading partners. The WTO needs to translate some of its implicit legal understanding into explicit treaty language, in order to retain its principles while accommodating China
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- China
176. Effectiveness of cohesion policy: learning from the project characteristics that produce the best results
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This study by Zsolt Darvas, Antoine Mathieu Collin, Jan Mazza, and Catarina Midões analyses the characteristics of cohesion policy projects that can contribute to successful outcomes. Their analysis is based on a literature survey, an econometric analysis and interviews with stakeholders. About two dozen project characteristics are considered, and their association with economic growth is studied using a novel methodology. Based on the findings, the study concludes with recommendations for cohesion policy reform
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
177. How to improve European Union cohesion policy for the next decade
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This policy contribution investigates the performance of the design, implementation and effectiveness of cohesion policy, the most evaluated EU tool for promoting economic convergence. By analysing the effects of cohesion policy on economic growth through reviewing literature, conducting empirical research by comparing regions, as well as considering attitudes and expectations collected through interviewing stakeholders, the authors provide reform recommendations.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
178. Europe – the global centre for excellent research
- Author:
- Michael Balternsperger
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This report, requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Industry, Research and Energy, analyses the EU’s potential to be a global centre of excellence for research as a driver of its future growth in a complex global S&T landscape, and how EU public resources can contribute to this
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe
179. Estimating the cost of capital for wind energy investments in Turkey
- Author:
- Lynn Fredriksson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Wind power represents a key component of Turkey’s energy strategy. Increased investment will be required to meet Turkey’s wind power target and, as such, there is a need to understand the viability of wind power projects there. The cost of capital is a crucial element in wind power investment decisions owing to the high capital intensity of wind power plants. A reduction in the cost of capital through support policies can lower overall project costs and increase investment
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
180. First Nations, LNG Canada, and the Politics of Anti-Pipeline Protests
- Author:
- Will Greaves
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- In October 2018, LNG Canada – a C$40 billion joint venture supported by some of the largest multinational corporations in the world, including Shell, Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi and the Korean Gas Corporation – was approved by its investors, and a new chapter in Canadian political economy began. The project consists of a coastal liquefied natural gas terminal at Kitimat, British Columbia, which is fed by a 670-kilometre pipeline from the shale gas-producing region in the province’s northeast interior. It is the largest private-sector and natural resource investment in Canadian history, in a country where resource extraction still contributes more than 17 per cent of GDP. Moreover, LNG Canada is the cornerstone of the B.C. NDP government’s economic policy, promising to provide 10,000 jobs during construction and up to 950 permanent jobs once the project is fully operational. It will also create $5 billion in additional provincial GDP per year and $23 billion in new revenues over the project’s life, while spurring the growth of a new natural resource industry.1 Predicted economic benefits in the rest of Canada will total $2 billion per year and approximately $500 million in new federal revenues. These benefits will be in addition to an increase in the value of all Canadian liquefied natural gas exports of between $519 million and $5.8 billion per year, depending on market prices.2 Thus, it is not surprising that the federal government is also strongly supportive, and that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was seated next to B.C. Premier John Horgan when the agreement was signed.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Post Colonialism, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Canada
181. Cyberattack: What Goes Around, Comes Around
- Author:
- Ken Barker
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The Canadian government is now openly discussing the possibility of making cyberweapons part of its official national defence strategy. The new development was revealed in a recent government white paper, entitled “Strong, Secure, and Engaged” (SSE), which outlined defence policy across a wide range of activities. Specifically, the paper discusses working toward a “more assertive posture in the cyber domain by hardening our defences, and by conducting active cyber operations against potential adversaries in the context of government-authorized military missions” with an explicit commitment to developing cyberattack capabilities. This direction not only opens up new possibilities for Canadian defence, it could also represent significant new risks. Without good answers to the difficult questions this new direction could raise, the country could be headed down a very precarious path.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
182. A Canadian Primer to the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan
- Author:
- Colin Robertson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- On Friday, June 28, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hosts the leaders of the 19 major economic nations and the European Union in Osaka, Japan. As G20 finance ministers noted after their meeting earlier this month “growth remains low and risks remain tilted to the downside. Most importantly, trade and geopolitical tensions have intensified.” Created in the wake of the 2007-2008 “Great Recession”, the G20 is economic multilateralism at work, an insurance policy to prevent globalization going off the rails. This 14th G20 summit is the culmination of a year-long series of ministerial meetings, hosted throughout Japan.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Canada
183. Searching for a Middle-Power Role in a New World Order
- Author:
- Eugene Lang
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The “America First” agenda will persist well beyond the life of the Trump administration. Washington no longer “has Canada’s back”. We are living in a new age of great power rivalry. Populism poses a major challenge to the rules-based international order. Adult supervision in global politics is in short supply. These are some of the themes that surfaced during a recent CGAI conference titled What Role for Canada on the Global Stage? Implied, if unstated, was that Canada is adrift internationally on these waters, in search of a role in a new world order of which most Canadians seem unaware. The question remained: How should Canada respond to these new global currents in a way befitting a middle power entering the third decade of the 21st century?
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
184. The Sub-Optimal Effect of Decreasing Military Capability – A Canadian Study
- Author:
- Ross Fetterly
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Defence budgets seldom remain constant, despite the long-term orientation required in defence planning. However, short-term fluctuations in funding can disrupt military programs and activities, and the impact can last several years. This is, in part, due to the unique mix of personnel, equipment and operations, which the defence budget funds. In times of rapid and unplanned defence budget reductions, short-term decisions can be made that are not necessarily in the best interest of the efficient and effective management of the armed forces. Indeed, significant unforecasted funding reductions could produce and reinforce dysfunctional behaviour. Defence budget reductions, to be effective, must include reductions in each of personnel, operations and maintenance, and capital categories in order to maintain a balance between current demands and building future capability. This study uses the Royal Canadian Navy to demonstrate the fundamental cost relationships in the management and operation of defence forces, which become evident during periods of rapid funding reductions. Fiscal year 2004-2005 is used as the baseline year for the study. The Canadian navy is used as a case study, although similar case studies could have been done for the Canadian army or air force. The Canadian navy has warships divided between the East and West coasts, with one naval base on each coast. This study reduces the number of ships, and associated base support on each coast, in a defined sequence until all ships are eliminated, and illustrates potential savings throughout this process. The study concludes that unless infrastructure, as well as the number of military and civilian personnel, is reduced as ships are decommissioned, savings are minimal.
- Topic:
- National Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Canada
185. Anatomy of a Buy: The Four Dimensions of Procuring a Future Fighter for Canada
- Author:
- Alan Stephenson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Purchasing a fleet of fighter aircraft is a complex process with many variables and the Canadian government has a duty to ensure the billions of procurement dollars required are properly spent. The interplay between the four dimensions involved in military procurement (military, technological, economic, and political) defies simple analysis. The government has directed the Canadian Armed Forces to ensure Canadian sovereignty, defend North America, and engage in extraterritorial missions. The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) has responded to its responsibilities to support these commitments with a thorough, capability-based Statement of Requirements for the future fighter, taking critical functionalities of operating in the future battlespace and emerging technologies into consideration.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
186. Does Canada Need a Foreign Policy Review?
- Author:
- Randolf Mank
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Canada’s contemporary foreign policy has been shaped by deep integration with, and dependence on, the United States, offset by multilateral support for a rules-based international order. The Trump administration’s confrontational nationalism, combined with other global events and trends, has now disrupted Canada’s position and assumptions. This raises the question of whether or not it’s time for a Canadian foreign policy review. While the Trudeau government deserves credit for several initiatives, a series of discontinuities in Canada’s domestic and foreign policies suggests that our interests could be better served. The Canadian government has two main options: it can follow its current path of adjusting its policies in an ad hoc fashion, while waiting out the Trump administration and hoping for more favourable successors, or it can attempt to set Canada on a new path, in which case a foreign policy review would be warranted.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Canada
187. Overcoming ‘Boom and Bust’? Analyzing National Shipbuilding Plans in Canada and Australia
- Author:
- Jeff Collins
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- While both Canada and Australia share similar constitutional frameworks and imperial histories, they are also no stranger to procurement challenges. Cost overruns, delays, regionalism, and protracted intellectual property disputes have all been part of major defence acquisition projects in recent decades. This Policy Paper analyzes the largest and most expensive procurement projects undertaken by either country, Canada’s $73 billion (estimated) National Shipbuilding Strategy (NSS), launched in 2010, and Australia’s A$90 billion Naval Shipbuilding Plan (NSP), launched in 2017. Each project represents an attempt to implement a rational, multi-decade approach to naval acquisition. Driven by a desire to overcome previous boom-and-bust cycles, the NSS and NSP aim to create a sustainable shipbuilding sector capable of meeting the immediate and future naval demands of Ottawa and Canberra. Neither country has attempted a shipbuilding plan on this scale before.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
188. The Arctic is Warming and Turning Red: Implications for Canada and Russia in an Evolving Polar Region
- Author:
- Ron Wallace
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Canada and the Russian Federation have pursued significantly different strategies for economic development and security in their respective circumpolar regions. These policies have resulted in very different northern strategic outcomes. While Canada and its circumpolar neighbours (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, Norway and the United States) have advanced their polar resource claims through the UN, Russia has taken additional bold steps to secure its polar resources. Events since 2000 have demonstrated a fierce Russian political resolve to secure its economic independence from the West and to achieve a prominent place on the world geopolitical stage. In a steadily warming Arctic, Russia has recognized the potential economic and strategic significance of its Northern Sea Route and is now the foremost military and shipping leader in the circumpolar region. Russia continues to accelerate its efforts to re-open abandoned former Soviet Siberian military bases and to construct new operational bases. The largest Russian military build-up in the polar region since 1991 provides an indication that, consistent with its geopolitical aspirations, Russia is prepared to assert and defend its Arctic resources and sea routes. This accelerating Russian presence and military capability, paralleled by certain Chinese initiatives (China increasingly views itself as a near-Arctic state) have occasioned not just re-evaluations, but a reinvigoration of certain Arctic defence postures among circumpolar allies in NATO.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
189. Unblocking the Bottlenecks and Making the Global Supply Chain Transparent: How blockchain technology can update global trade
- Author:
- Hanna Norberg
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Blockchain technology is still in its infancy, but already it has begun to revolutionize global trade. Its lure is irresistible because of the simplicity with which it can replace the standard methods of documentation, smooth out logistics, increase transparency, speed up transactions, and ameliorate the planning and tracking of trade. Blockchain essentially provides the supply chain with an unalterable ledger of verified transactions, and thus enables trust every step of the way through the trade process. Every stakeholder involved in that process – from producer to warehouse worker to shipper to financial institution to recipient at the final destination – can trust that the information contained in that indelible ledger is accurate. Fraud will no longer be an issue, middlemen can be eliminated, shipments tracked, quality control maintained to highest standards and consumers can make decisions based on more than the price. Blockchain dramatically reduces the amount of paperwork involved, along with the myriad of agents typically involved in the process, all of this resulting in soaring efficiencies.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
190. Updating an ODA Policy in Canada: The Role of Global Remittances in Development
- Author:
- Cynthia Bansak and Nicole Simpson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The federal government has pledged to update Canada’s official development assistance (ODA) policy and this paper examines the potential important role of remittances in the development program. Remittances can serve as a significant form of cross-border capital flows and can have sizable effects on both the sending and receiving countries. This policy piece provides an overview of trends in global remittances and gives a context for the policy discussion on the relationship between remittances and ODA. The paper discusses the primary reasons behind global remittances and their impacts on sending and receiving countries, with a particular emphasis on Canada, the United States and Mexico. Past findings provide insight into the reasons and impacts of remittances on both developed and developing countries. Within the context of Canada, the paper also examines how remittances have been able to complement and possibly drive other development reform efforts domestically and abroad. The goal of the analysis is to help inform the policy discussion in Canada and concludes with a set of policy recommendations for the Canadian federal government.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
191. Refocus the European Union: Planet, Lifetime, Technology
- Author:
- Heather Grabbe
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- This report is a rallying cry for Europeans to pull together and mobilize the EU’s assets to manage the three biggest changes of our times. Each section briefly diagnoses the consequences of climate change, aging populations, and digital revolutions and then explores the role the EU could play in supporting the inevitable transitions. The purpose is not to provide a detailed blueprint for each transition, but rather to launch a new kind of debate about the EU—a debate that does not revolve around how to tweak the current institutions but instead how to address a reordered set of priorities
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Europe Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
192. Comparative Study of the Automotive Industry in Azerbaijan
- Author:
- Orkhan Huseynov
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The automotive industry is a major employment generator in many economies, with millions of people earning their livelihood, both directly and indirectly. According to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (IOMVM), the current turnover of the automobile industry is around 2 trillion EURO and is equivalent to the size of 6th largest economy in the world. While there has been a growth momentum for the global automotive industry in the past, it is also facing challenges of late, especially in view of the increasing cost of production and slowing down of demand. The world automotive industry is also faced with the challenge of undertaking R&D and designing fuel-efficient vehicles in view of volatile oil prices. The environmental challenges have also assumed critical importance to the automotive industry at the backdrop of climatic change
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
193. The Business environment: economic reforms in the context of institutional shortcomings
- Author:
- Rashad Hasanov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The existence of a well-functioning business environment is a key factor in the diversification of the economy, the efficient use of available resources and ensuring sustainable growth. The business environment, in its turn, should be regarded as a composite of conditions that incorporate quite complex components. If one or more of the composition components are not functioning appropriately, the result you will get is not adequate to the available capacity. The existence of contemporary institutions is the absolute requirement for a "good business environment", performing functions such as coordinating all other economic advantages, organizing appropriate arrangements, and risk management.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
194. CESD Research Brief: Should we expect a change in the rate of Azerbaijani manat in context of high demand for US dollar?
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- In January-February of 2019, activity in foreign exchange markets has further escalated. According to the information provided by the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), during the corresponding period 951 million US dollars were sold, including 634.9 million in January and 316.2 million in February. This is 47.2% higher than the same period of the previous year.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
195. Azerbaijani Economy 2018: Results and Perspectives
- Author:
- Rashad Hasanov
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Following the recession and stagnation of the economy of Azerbaijan in 2015-2017, a growth of 1.4% was recorded in 2018. Economic growth has been mainly driven by the following factors. Favorable foreign economic environment for Azerbaijan from the context of oil prices: the initial forecast of the oil prices by the Azerbaijani government at the beginning of 2018 was 45 US dollars per barrel. Then, during the second half of the year, the forecast was adjusted to 55 US dollars per barrel. However, the actual price of one barrel of oil for the reporting period was above 71 US dollars (29% higher than forecasted)…
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
196. The CESD Assessment on the 2019 State Budget Project
- Author:
- Dan Breban
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The current external macroeconomic conditions observed throughout the year of 2018, such as increasing rates by FED/ECB, exerts certain pressure on the economies of developing nations. Despite hovering well-over its predicted value for most of the year, the recent decline in the price of oil once again puts question marks for the future of the commodity. Considering all of the above mentioned facts in mind, dependence of 2019 state budget of Azerbaijan on oil, where 50.4% of revenues directly come from the oil sector further makes the country more vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. The largest hike is observed in the amount of revenues collected through the excise taxes while the biggest decline is in income taxes, reflecting the new amendments to the tax code. Expenditures of the state budget are going to be 7.3% higher in 2019, with the most significant boost observed in construction sector. This fact undermines the efficiency of the public funds, as the expenditures towards construction are more likely to become subject of mismanagement. When looking at the SOFAZ’s budget, a clear trend of increasingly allocating more and more funds to the state budget can be seen. As expected, new amendments were made to the fiscal rule in order to make it more flexible, however, the effectiveness of these changes are still unclear.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
197. Baku-Tbilisi-Kars: Regional Implications and Perspectives
- Author:
- Victoria Bittner
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The establishment of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) policy as a part of the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) sets new objectives for the deepening of cooperation between the EU and EaP countries, and the greater integration of the EaP based on shared norms, values and standards. Forming the eastern divide of the ENP, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia are considered official neighbors of the EU, although half of these countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) do not lie on the immediate borders of the EU. However, these South Caucasian countries play an important transit role by connecting the EU with Central Asia and China. Hence, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railroad, crossing Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, establishes a significant link in the further development and integration of regional and global transit corridors stretching from China to Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
198. Vientiane-Hanoi Expressway Project
- Author:
- Masahito Ambashi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The Vientiane–Hanoi Expressway (VHE) has been one of the most anticipated transportation projects between Lao PDR and Viet Nam. This report (1) explores the potentiality of the corridor between Hanoi and Vientiane as designated by the Greater Mekong Subregion Economic Development Program; (2) illustrates impacts on economies and industries of Lao PDR and surrounding countries of the VHE; (3) sets out industrial development strategies for Lao PDR, Viet Nam, and Thailand that take maximum advantage of the VHE; and (4) suggests appropriate financial mechanisms to construct the VHE. Thus, this report focuses on how Lao PDR and neighbouring countries can benefit from the expressway by strengthening relevant industries and forming a Bangkok–Vientiane–Hanoi industrial corridor from the perspective of global value chains and production networks developed in the Mekong region
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
199. The Next Generation Automobile Industry as a Creative Industry
- Author:
- Seio Nakajima
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The aim of this paper is to describe the recent transformation of the automobile industry from a manufacturing industry to include aspects of the service and creative industries. Firstly, it reviews the recent trend of the automobile industry as a service industry. Secondly, it discusses the automobile industry’s move toward the creative industries. It examines these two trends, mostly based on the next-generation automobile industry in Japan. Finally, it discusses the implications of the above transformation of the automobile industry on academic studies of the creative industries, and argues for what it calls a strong programme in creative industries studies. It also provides a provisional note on government policies in the era of the next-generation automobile industry.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
200. Cool Japan, Creative Industries, and Diversity
- Author:
- Koichi Iwabuchi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper critically considers the operation and objective of Japan’s ‘creative industry’ policy and suggests how to redesign it to align it with recent attention to cultural diversity. But the paper’s scope goes beyond business and extends to defining ‘creativity’ as a means to enhance civic dialogue, sympathy, and inclusion, to imagine a better society. The ‘creative industry’ can include independent and non-profit cultural projects that promote diversity by involving artists, museums, non-governmental and non-profit organisations, public service corporations, local communities, volunteers, and researchers. Such a redesign is compatible with the creative industry policy’s aim to advance social inclusion and democratisation by promoting grassroots creativity.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus