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41. Politics First: The Key to Understanding China’s Third Plenum

Author:
Neil Thomas and Jing Qian
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Anticipation is growing for one of the most important events in Chinese politics this year. On June 27, General Secretary Xi Jinping chaired a meeting of the 24-man Politburo that announced the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will hold its Third Plenum in Beijing on July 15–18. A plenum is a plenary meeting of the committee’s 205 members and 171 non-voting alternate members. The meeting is important because the Central Committee will issue an authoritative “decision” (jueding) that will guide policymaking for years to come. The document will center on “further comprehensively deepening reform and advancing Chinese-style modernization” amid concerns both at home and abroad about the Party’s ability to steward China’s economic, geopolitical, and social development. However, expectations should be modest. Historically, third plenums are often overrated as catalysts for transformational change and instead introduce plans that expand on existing policy themes. Xi’s first third plenum in 2013 appeared unusually ambitious, raising hopes for economic and political liberalization, but its true significance was in enabling Xi’s centralization of power. The policy signals for this month’s plenum suggest a strong emphasis on Xi’s goals of achieving technological self-reliance, addressing financial risks, streamlining central-local relations, and improving social welfare. There are also hints that Beijing may try to ease conditions for private firms and foreign investors in high-tech sectors, as well as efforts to enhance internal Party governance. Additionally, several previously sacked officials are expected to lose their seats on the Central Committee. This article analyzes the historical context, policy signals, personnel movements, and key documents related to the upcoming Third Plenum.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Domestic Politics, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

42. Lessons in leadership: Interviews with 11 of Australia’s former Defence Ministers

Author:
Brendan Nicholson
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
In a time of growing strategic uncertainty, 11 of Australia’s former defence ministers have shared valuable lessons they learned over decades running one of the toughest portfolios in government. In this compendium, the former ministers from both sides of politics give their views on topics ranging from the complexity of dealing with a massive department, to the grief they shared with families at the funerals of slain soldiers. The pieces are drawn from interviews with former ASPI executive director Peter Jennings and links to the original video interviews are available in the posts on The Strategist site.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Government, Leadership, Interview, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

43. Rubbish Balloons, Mutual Repudiation: Is This How It Ends?

Author:
Aidan Foster-Carter
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Inter-Korean relations, already bad, got worse in 2024. North Korea launched a bizarre new campaign, sending balloons bearing trash. South Korea reacted by fully suspending the already defunct North-South military pact and resuming propaganda broadcasts at the DMZ. In August, ROK President Yoon Suk Yeol announced a new policy of unification under liberal democracy, which despite offering dialogue left no place for the DPRK or Kim Jong Un. The latter took umbrage at Seoul for exaggerating flood casualties in the North, but offered no figure of his own. It is unclear whether North Korea has revised its constitution to declare South Korea irredeemably hostile, as no text has been published. In October the North blew up inter-Korean road and rail links. In December. Yoon blew up his own presidency by briefly declaring martial law, plunging South Korea into political chaos. As of now the North has not taken advantage of this.
Topic:
Government, Natural Disasters, Bilateral Relations, Democracy, and Constitution
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

44. Algeria’s Presidential Election: The Enduring Stagnation

Author:
Daniel Zisenwine
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this new edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Daniel Zisenwine analyzes the September presidential elections in Algeria, which resulted in the re-election of Abdelmadjid Tebboune.
Topic:
Government, Domestic Politics, Presidential Elections, and Abdelmadjid Tebboune
Political Geography:
Algeria and North Africa

45. Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China

Author:
The University of Sydney China Studies Centre
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held its Third Plenum from 15 July to 18 July. The Third Plenum is usually a meeting focused on economic reforms and sometimes proposes significant directions related to reforms. After the meeting concludes, a communiqué is typically issued, followed after a few days by the full text of a fuller Resolution. The Communique of this plenum was published on 18 July and the Resolution on 21 July. The full text of the Resolution appears as Appendix 1 On 26 July, the China Studies Centre hosted an online roundtable to discuss the main conclusions and resolutions of the plenum and their implications.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Reform, Domestic Politics, Macroeconomics, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

46. Recommendations for Government Development and Use of Advanced Automated Systems to Make Decisions about Individuals

Author:
Susan Landau, James X. Dempsey, Ece Kamar, and Steven M. Bellovin
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
Contestability -- the ability to effectively challenge a decision -- is critical to the implementation of fairness. In the context of governmental decision making about individuals, contestability is often constitutionally required as an element of due process; specific procedures may be required by state or federal law relevant to a particular program. In addition, contestability can be a valuable way to discover systemic errors, contributing to ongoing assessments and system improvement. On January 24-25, 2024, with support from the National Science Foundation and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, we convened a diverse group of government officials, representatives of leading technology companies, technology and policy experts from academia and the non-profit sector, advocates, and stakeholders for a workshop on advanced automated decision making, contestability, and the law. Informed by the workshop's rich and wide-ranging discussion, we offer these recommendations. A full report summarizing the discussion is in preparation.
Topic:
Government, Science and Technology, Automation, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Global Focus

47. Government, State, and National Wars in Africa

Author:
Nathaly Silva Xavier Schütz and Hernán Olmedo González
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
To what extent were internal wars in African countries after World War II conditioned by their limited levels of governmental entrenchment and statehood? This is the central issue guiding the following research, which focuses on African countries in the post-World War II period, a period in which the system of sovereign States — with its origins in modernity and formally in Europe with the Peace of Westphalia treaties of 1648 — reached the vast majority of the international system. To achieve this objective, the following article is structured as follows.The first section aims to present, in the first instance, empirical information about the relative weight that internal national wars had on the international system in general and in Africa in particular, followed by a presentation of the different propositions about the conditioning factors of this type of war in the international system and African States, and, finally, establish guiding hypotheses for the empirical research of the study. The second section describes the methodological project followed to test the hypo-theses defined in the first section. The third section presents the empirical results of the research and the data analysis. Finally, the article develops a conclusion that systematizes the main aspects of the study.
Topic:
Government, Sovereignty, War, State, and International System
Political Geography:
Africa

48. The Number of Countries with Coups d’etats and Other Constitutional Changes in Government is Rising: How should donors stay engaged?

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Renata Dwan, Betty N. Wainaina, and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
Last week, CIC released a major new joint report with Chatham House on aid to “politically-estranged” settings – countries where donor relations with national authorities are frayed or broken because of unconstitutional changes in government, internationally contested elections, and major sanctions. Development aid to these countries has been suspended or severely curtailed, often because of domestic pressures to disengage, leaving the problem to traditional humanitarian approaches. In this report, CIC and Chatham House argue that development engagement is needed, and outline the ways to do so without legitimizing unconstitutional regimes, in concertation with regional actors. This piece focuses on two major areas: Why should donors care in this current moment? What has been new in our thinking about the major challenges and solutions for how to work in these contexts?
Topic:
Government, Constitution, Multilateralism, Coup, and Donors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

49. Anti-corruption Capacities of Public Procurement in the Security Sector: Report for 2020 and 2021 - Part I

Author:
Erdin Halimić, Dajana Bašić, and Aleksandar Maletić
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Investigations into corruption in the security sector are often focused on contracting, that is, on the stages of public procurement in which civil servants prepare and sign contracts with suppliers of equipment and services and manage their implementation. However, in order to discover the functioning mechanisms of public procurement and potential critical points for the emergence of corruption, we must investigate the entire public procurement procedure and then prepare appropriate conclusions and recommendations for its suppression. In our case, this implies an indepth analysis of relevant normative acts, practices and challenges in public procurement in the security sector. The report was made on the basis of qualitative and quantitative parameters based on which the anti-corruption capacities of 13 security sector institutions from different levels of government in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) were measured and evaluated. The time period covered by the research refers to two years, 2020 and 2021.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Government, Law Enforcement, Institutions, and Public Procurement
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

50. Anti-corruption Capacities of Public Procurement in the Security Sector: Report for 2020 and 2021 - Part II

Author:
Erdin Halimić, Ajla Popović, Haris Vejezović, Aleksandar Maletić, and Dajana Bašić
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Investigations into corruption in the security sector are often focused on contracting, that is, on the stages of public procurement in which civil servants prepare and sign contracts with suppliers of equipment and services and manage their implementation. However, in order to discover the functioning mechanisms of public procurement and potential critical points for the emergence of corruption, we must investigate the entire public procurement procedure and then prepare appropriate conclusions and recommendations for its suppression. In our case, this implies an indepth analysis of relevant normative acts, practices and challenges in public procurement in the security sector. The report was made on the basis of qualitative and quantitative parameters based on which the anti-corruption capacities of 12 security sector institutions from different levels of government in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) were measured and evaluated. The time period covered by the research refers to two years, 2020 and 2021.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Government, Law Enforcement, Institutions, and Public Procurement
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina