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3372. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process
- Author:
- Janice Stein
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The two-state solution includes continuing but declining violence over time against Israeli and Palestinian civilians as the Palestinian state becomes entrenched and its legitimacy and authority grows, Palestinian leaders develop a commitment to the status quo, and the opposition in Israel reluctantly accepts the permanence of a Palestinian state. If the Palestinian state is poorly institutionalized, violence against Palestinian and Israeli citizens may well increase over time.
- Topic:
- Development and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
3373. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process
- Author:
- Don Sylvan
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Steve asked each of us to do the following: "Each participant will return to the next meeting with arguments on these seven driving forces. These arguments will include: Logic: what is the causal logic by which the driving force impacts on the intervening and dependent variables. Probability: what is the probability estimate of the effect. Hierarchy: is there an identifiable hierarchy among these driving forces.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
3374. Turkey Between Secularism and Islamism
- Author:
- Jacob M. Landau
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- When Mustafa Kamal (Ataturk) founded the Republic of Turkey in 1923 (he was its president until his death fifteen years later), he set as his main objective the modernization of the new republic. His preferred means was speedy, intensive secularization and, indeed, every one of his reforms was tied up with disestablishing other Islamic institutions from their hold on Turkey's politics, economics, society, and cultural life.
- Topic:
- Government, Islam, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
3375. Health Challenges for the 21st Century
- Author:
- Joshua Lederberg, Margaret Hamburg, Stephen Morse, Philip R. Reilly, and Timothy Wirth
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- New York Academy of Sciences
- Abstract:
- A crisis usually eliminates the time required to focus on the long-term: The urgent tends to drive out the important. Over the past several years, public policy perspectives on health care have often suffered from such myopia. In the United States, and in many other countries around the world, spiraling costs and shrinking budgets have focused health policy attention on perceived near-term crises over the allocation of (often public) resources. Because public resource allocation involves tax dollars, and because voters feel personally affected by changes in health services, the controversy enters the political arena. Moreover, politics itself is a very near-term business, with the ballot box and polling data providing its primary compass. In turn, this has added to the tendency to think of health care challenges in terms of immediate needs and to focus on the moment rather than on the consequences of today's changes in tomorrow's complex patterns.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
3376. Privatization and Regulation: Lessons from Argentina and Chile
- Author:
- Luigi Manzetti
- Publication Date:
- 04-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Some economists have argued that before governments privatize state-owned monopolies in public utilities, they should first try to promote competition. If this is not done, privatization does not produce gains in economic efficiency; instead, it fosters rent-seeking behavior by the new private ownership. Few empirical analyses of rent-seeking behavior for Latin America in post-privatization environments have been done — those that exist concentrate on economic issues and neglect important political motivations. The purpose of this paper is to fill that gap and address key issues of public policy by examining the cases of Chile and Argentina and providing a political explanation for why the Chilean and Argentine governments allowed rent-seeking behavior in important public utility markets. Based upon an analysis of these experiences, the paper then discusses the types of institutions most likely to avoid such negative consequences.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Political Economy
3377. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 05-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America
3378. Discourse Analysis as Foreign Policy Theory
- Author:
- Ole Wæver
- Publication Date:
- 11-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Where is Germany heading? So we have been asking ourselves since the wall fell. We had been reasonably calmed down: they were apparently not out for new adventures of their own. No Eastward going it alone -- neither in Eastern Europe, nor with the Russians. Nor any autonomous power politics. On the contrary, Germany has primarily made itself noticed in global politics through its continued restraint, from half-hearted support in the Gulf War to qualms over participation in UN operations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Germany
3379. Supranational Governance: The Institutionalization of the European Union
- Author:
- Wayne Sandholtz and Alec Stone Sweet
- Publication Date:
- 11-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- We posit a continuum of modes of governance, anchored at the poles by intergovernmental and supranational politics. Movement from intergovernmental politics toward the supranational pole implies the increasing importance of three factors in EU policymaking: EU rules, EU organizations, and transnational society. We propose that an increase in one of the three factors creates conditions that favor growth in the other two. We also offer a theory as to what drives initial movement toward supranational governance: increasing levels of cross-border transactions and communications by societal actors will increase the perceived need for European-level rules, coordination, and dispute resolution mechanisms. The theory provides a coherent answer to the question of why integration proceeds faster in some domains than in others. We expect movement toward supranational governance in sectors where the intensity and value of cross-border transactions is rising.
- Topic:
- Government and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3380. From Free Trade to Supranational Polity: The European Court and Integration
- Author:
- Alec Stone Sweet and James A. Caporaso
- Publication Date:
- 11-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we propose a dynamic theory of legal integration, test the model quantitatively, and then cross-check it by way of process tracing. We show that transnational exchange, litigation, and the production of Euro-rules have evolved interdependently, and argue that this interdependence provokes and reinforces the spillover effects that partly drive the construction of supranational governance. In case studies of the impact of the legal system on outcomes in two areas, the free movement of goods and European social provisions, we show that our model outperforms the dominant framework for understanding how the EC legal system operates - intergovernmentalism. In each of these areas, the data show that the legal system functions to reduce member-state government control over policy outcomes, and to enhance the influence of supranational institutions, national judges, and private actors.
- Topic:
- Government, International Law, International Organization, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe