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4501. Panama Canal Transition: The Final Implementation

Author:
C. Richard Nelson, Jr. Gillespie, Brandon Grove Jr., and David E. McGiffert
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The implications of the transfer of the Panama Canal go well beyond U.S. relations with Panama. This complex transition provides an important lesson for Latin America and the rest of the world on how countries of vastly different size and outlook can work together. The success of this 20 year process lies mainly in first identifying the primary common interest of the United States, Panama and the major canal users: access to an open, safe and efficient canal. Important but secondary concerns, including U.S. military access to facilities in Panama, were addressed during the process but never were allowed to displace the primary interest. By focusing on this clear, compelling key objective, both Panama and the United States were able to accommodate fundamental changes in the political, economic and security context, including several changes in administrations, tough negotiations and even a military confrontation.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

4502. The Cox Committee Report: An Assessment

Author:
Michael M. May, Alastair Iain Johnston, W.K.H. Panofsky, Marco Di Capua, and Lewis R. Franklin
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The Cox Commission of the U.S. Congress was established in June 1998 to investigate concerns over Chinese acquisition of sensitive U.S. missile and space technology in connection with the launching of U.S. civilian satellites using Chinese launchers on Chinese territory. The investigations were broadened in October 1998 to include alleged security problems and possible espionage at the U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories. Some conclusions were released in January 1999 by the White House together with the administration's response. The full declassified (redacted) version of the report of the Cox Commission was released on May 25, 1999.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

4503. AIDS and Developing Countries: Democratizing Access to Essential Medicines

Author:
Tom Barry, Robert Weissman, and Martha Honey
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Africa and the developing world are facing an HIV/AIDS crisis equated by the U.S. surgeon general to the plague that decimated Europe in the fourteenth century. Combinations of available pharmaceuticals-too expensive for nearly all of the infected people in the developing world-could enable many afflicted with HIV/AIDS to live relatively normal lives. Compulsory licensing and parallel importing policies could help developing country governments make essential medicines more affordable to their citizens.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Europe

4504. Bombs Away: A Call for the Unconditional Ending of the Bombing Campaign

Author:
Tom Barry and Martha Honey
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
The Foreign Policy In Focus project functions as a network of foreign policy experts. The following brief, written by one of the project's codirectors, benefits from the expert opinions about the Kosovo crisis from numerous experts and organizations that have contributed to the project's efforts to make the U.S. a more responsible global leader and partner. We see this policy brief as a living document that will be regularly updated and revised as this horrific manifestation of U.S. militarism and global irresponsibility evolves. The policy brief calls for the unconditional halt to this war of terror. Comments appreciated.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States and Eastern Europe

4505. 'Rogue' States and International Relations

Author:
Paul D. Hoyt
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Over the last few years a new concept has taken on heightened emphasis in the public rhetoric of American policymakers: that is, the “rogue state” and the related “pariah” and “outlaw state” designations. In American post-Cold War thinking, these states have emerged as one of the major, if not the most preeminent, of America's security concerns. As fears of a nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union recede into memory, “rogue states” tend to be joined with such international evils, and perceived threats to U.S. interests, as terrorism (commonly associated with rogues), drug syndicates, and organized crime.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and National Security
Political Geography:
United States and America

4506. Migration, Urbanization, and Social Adjustment

Author:
Michael J. White
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Migration is the demographic process that links rural to urban areas, generating or spurring the growth of cities. The resultant urbanization is linked to a variety of policy issues, spanning demographic, economic, and environmental concerns. Growing cities are often seen as the agents of environmental degradation. Urbanization can place stress on the land through sprawl; coincident industrial development may threaten air and water quality. In the eyes of many observers, rapid urbanization is also linked to problems of unemployment and the social adaptation of migrants in their new urban setting. Cities advertise society's inequalities in income, housing, and other social resources, whether these problems are new or just newly manifest in urban settings. Most of the migration conventionally liked to these urban issues was seen as following a conventional pattern. In this policy brief I raise some issues about the nature of contemporary, migratory behavior, both for our understanding of processes of population redistribution directly, and for understanding some of the implications of that redistribution. Contemporary research is sketching the contours of this migratory behavior and the social adjustment that accompanies it. New research is beginning to shed light on the rate of migrant adaptation, on the connection between origin and destination communities through remittances, and the demographic structure and dynamics of refugee movements.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Migration

4507. Barak's Complex Foreign Policy Agenda

Author:
Gerald M. Steinberg
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Prime Minister Ehud Barak will not get a period of grace or a post-election honeymoon. Immediately upon taking office, he faces a number of pressing issues. Many of these are domestic - including religious-secular relations and economic concerns.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

4508. American Policy Toward Iraq and Iran in Clinton's Second Term

Author:
Robert O. Freedman
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
During U.S. President Bill Clinton's second term in office, the U.S. "dual containment" policy toward Iran and Iraq, which he inherited from the Bush administration and then intensified during his first term, had come close to collapse.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

4509. The Future of the U.S. Foreign Assistance Program

Author:
J. Brian Atwood
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Overseas Development Council
Abstract:
Let me begin by thanking John Sewell and ODC for sponsoring this forum. ODC has contributed so much to development thinking over the years. I could not think of a more appropriate venue for my last message to the development community as AID Administrator. One year ago, I decided it was time to bring my tenure to a close. About that time Sandy Berger asked me if I would agree to serve as Ambassador to Brazil. That decision was obviously a mistake. I lost control over my own timetable. I would probably still be waiting for a hearing if I had not withdrawn my nomination. Timetables are important when you are trying to bring closure to both a government career and a term of office. When I leave government on July 9, I will complete six years, two months and four days as AID Administrator. That is not a record, by the way, it just feels that way ! While it is natural to want to achieve a neat closure to this experience, I have concluded that there will always be unfinished business. That is what I want to talk to you about today.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Globalization, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States

4510. United States—Iraq Policy

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
In the past nine months, the United States and the United Kingdom have pursued a low-intensity military campaign against Iraq. Such actions have been made easier by a lack of political scrutiny. However, the US administration in particular now faces mounting criticism from France, China and Russia, who favour a relaxation of policy, and domestic US interest groups favouring a more activist stance. Despite these pressures, US President Bill Clinton is unlikely to change policy significantly in his remaining 18 months of office.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and France

4511. Kosovo—New Dawn for an Ethical Foreign Policy?

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The success of NATO in forcing the Serbian army to quit Kosovo has led some western leaders, notably the UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, to espouse a new 'moral' emphasis in foreign policy. While a complete abandonment of self–interest for ethics can be dismissed, there are important new factors affecting the conduct of international affairs, which vary in regional applicability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

4512. The United States and South Korean Democratization

Author:
James Fowler
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
JAMES FOWLER draws on interviews with State Department officials and recently declassified documents to analyze the role of the United States in South Korea's democratization, concluding that U.S. public pressure on the Korean government played a critical role in determining the timing of the transition.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
South Korea and United States of America

4513. Defining Moment: The Threat and Use of Force in American Foreign Policy

Author:
Barry M. Blechman and Tamara Coffman Wittes
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
BARRY M. BLECHMAN and TAMARA COFMAN WITTES examine the uses of military threats and military interventions in the Bush and first Clinton administrations. Based on case studies and interviews with U.S. decision makers, they conclude that domestic and international political constraints are preventing U.S. leaders from making threats decisive enough to persuade foreign leaders to comply with U.S. demands.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Military Intervention, Bill Clinton, and George H. W. Bush
Political Geography:
United States of America

4514. Does U.S. Intervention Overseas Breed Terrorism?: The Historical Record

Author:
Ivan Eland
Publication Date:
12-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
According to Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, terrorism is the most important threat the United States and the world face as the 21st century begins. High-level U.S. officials have acknowledged that terrorists are now more likely to be able to obtain and use nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons than ever before.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

4515. The U.K. and Japan

Author:
Haruko Satoh
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Among the now G–8 countries, perhaps the most stable political relationship in the past decade or so has been between Britain and Japan. While the two countries do not necessarily rank high in each other's foreign policy priorities, their leaders have always made sure publicly to endorse the growing ties in strong and positive language. Prime Minister Tony Blair used the occasion of his official visit to Tokyo this January to echo Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's own positive views of the relationship, expressed to Blair at the G–8 summit in Denver. To Hashimoto's 'Britain is a special partner to Japan', Blair confirmed that UK–Japan relations were 'as strong as ever', in line with the remarks of his predecessors, which had ranged from a 'dynamic, plain-speaking partnership', 'strategic partnership' in the post-Cold War era, to 'natural partnership'. Furthermore, compared with Japan's relations with other major European states, specifically France and Germany, the contours of UK–Japan relations seem to stand out more. There is a strong economic relationship between the two. The UK–Japan Action Agenda of September 1996 was the first of its kind to be agreed between Japan and a European state, reflecting Britain's resolve to be the 'outward looking' member in the EU, and to keep ahead in the primarily economic competition for Japanese interest in Europe. Cooperation between the two countries has been credited as the key to success in some post-Cold War multilateral agreements, such as the UN arms register or the recent Kyoto conference on global warming, here reflecting the scope of official cooperation between the two governments. This track record supports the leaders' claims that Britain and Japan are special partners. Nevertheless, there is a sense that the relationship is still bound in the realm of political rhetoric. Neither the positive language nor the track record of achievements can dispel the perception that Europe—Japan relations are the weakest in the trilateral world of Europe, Japan and the United States. The Hague Declaration of 1991 — a document outlining further commitment to cooperation between Japan and the EU — the UK–Japan Action agenda, and the subsequent similar documents between Japan and France or Germany, have only received cursory attention. 2 While UK–Japan relations may be the key to genuinely strengthening Europe—Japan ties, there are issues that need to be addressed to promote further progress.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Japan, United Kingdom, Malaysia, and Netherlands

4516. Doing Democracy A Disservice: 1998 Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The stakes in Bosnia's forthcoming elections, the fifth internationally-supervised poll since the end of the war, could not be higher, for Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) and also for the international community. Having invested enormous financial and political capital in the peace process, the international community expects a return on its investment. That is why leading international figures including US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright have entered the Bosnian political fray, urging Bosnians to back parties which "support Dayton" and threatening to withdraw aid if they do not. The elections will bring some changes so the event will be hailed as a triumph. However, they will not lay the ground for a self-sustaining peace process. That can only be achieved by political reform and, in particular, a redesign of the electoral system to guarantee Bosnians ethnic security.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

4517. Third Party Arms Transfers: Requirements for the 21st Century

Author:
John D. Macomber and Charles McC. Mathias
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Can the United States collaborate with foreign nations in armaments development and production without jeopardizing US national security? This question - in light of America's global security obligations - demands a satisfactory answer. The economic and political advantages of greater international cooperation are significant. Benefits from cooperation include improved interoperability of weapons and equipment used by US allies and partners in operations with the United States, reduction in production costs, and preservation of a defense industrial base among US allies. Yet, considerations of national security are equally cogent.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and America

4518. De Gaulle and Europe: Historical Revision and Social Science Theory

Author:
Andrew Moravcsik
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The thousands of books and articles on Charles de Gaulle's policy toward European integration, whether written by historians, political scientists, or commentators, universally accord primary explanatory importance to the General's distinctive geopolitical ideology. In explaining his motivations, only secondary significance, if any at all, is attached to commercial considerations. This paper seeks to reverse this historiographical consensus by the four major decisions toward European integration taken under de Gaulle's Presidency: the decisions to remain in the Common Market in 1958, to propose the Fouchet Plan in the early 1960s, to veto British accession to the EC, and to provoke the “empty chair” crisis in 1965-1966, resulting in “Luxembourg Compromise.” In each case, the overwhelming bulk of the primary evidence—speeches, memoirs, or government documents—suggests that de Gaulle's primary motivation was economic, not geopolitical or ideological. Like his predecessors and successors, de Gaulle sought to promote French industry and agriculture by establishing protected markets for their export products. This empirical finding has three broader implications: (1) For those interested in the European Union, it suggests that regional integration has been driven primarily by economic, not geopolitical considerations—even in the “least likely” case. (2) For those interested in the role of ideas in foreign policy, it suggests that strong interest groups in a democracy limit the impact of a leader's geopolitical ideology—even where the executive has very broad institutional autonomy. De Gaulle was a democratic statesman first and an ideological visionary second. (3) For those who employ qualitative case-study methods, it suggests that even a broad, representative sample of secondary sources does not create a firm basis for causal inference. For political scientists, as for historians, there is in many cases no reliable alternative to primary-source research.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Organization, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and France

4519. The Future of the European Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy

Author:
Rebecca Johnson, Fraser Cameron, Alberto Navarro, Thierry Tardy, Sophia Clement, Glenys Kinnock, Tom Spencer, John Palmer, Joao de Deus Pinheiro, Christian Kudlich, Paolo Foresti, Hubert Heiss, Peter Ricketts, Elie Marcuse, Johannes Swoboda, Patricia Chilton, Maj Theorin, Stelios Stavrides, Thomas Eckert, Karen Smith, Krister Bringeus, Alexandra Laignel-Lavastine, Ognyan Minchev, Janos Vandor, Eric Remacle, Pauline Neville-Jones, Vasilij Likhachev, Peter Truscott, Jannis Sakellariou, Jesus Nunez, Claire Spencer, Birchara Khader, Alain Gresh, Lotte Leicht, Tim Hancock, David Nyheim, Francisco Rey, Bronwyn Brady, Geraldine O'Callaghan, Peter Saveiys, Brian Wood, Kiflemariam Gebrewold, Bernd Hemingway, and Alyson J. K. Bailes
Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
In his opening remarks as Chair of the conference, Tom Spencer, Chair of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, congratulated the organisers on their excellent timing. The European Union was now in a phase of 'pragmatic' evolution of CFSP and he believed the next nine months presented opportunities for progress.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

4520. U.S. Foreign Policy: Long Cycles — What Might They Mean for World Long Cycles?

Author:
Jack E. Holmes, Kevin Joldersma, and Aaron Keck
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
The author has studied U.S. foreign policy long cycles for two decades and has an extensive database covering 1776-1990. A good deal of attention has been paid to U.S. foreign policy in the post-1945 setting where the U.S. is a world superpower. Now that the U.S. has been freed from the immediate demands of the Cold War, it is important to study American policy over the long run, especially the period before 1945. This paper uses conclusions from the author's previous work to raise issues which have implications for the study of world long cycles. Particular attention is given to consensus (societal/governmental) variables since the U.S. is one of the few countries with a long history under the same written constitution. The American experience indicates that the U.S. is inclined toward independent action as sometimes dictated by domestic considerations. While it is clear that the U.S. will act as a superpower in part due to the nature of the international system, it is important to consider some uniquely American features which also have an important impact on policy. The author's work includes two books on long-term American foreign policy trends. The first one, The Mood/Interest Theory of American Foreign Policy, was published in 1985. It presented a general theory regarding how and why introvert and extrovert foreign policy moods alternate every two decades. This theory, as well as the dates of the cycles, is based on the work of Frank L. Klingberg (1952). Klingberg elaborates on his cycles in later works (1983 and 1996). Since the 1985 work contained a good deal of theory, it was thought that a more empirical study of these trends would be in order. Toward this end, the author created over 150 variables which have been given annual values for at least 150 years. These variables were based on the work of other authors and compilations of data. The resulting work, Ambivalent America, which has been the basis for several convention papers and is nearing completion as a book, raises a second set of conclusions which supplement those of the first book. At the same time, several authors have investigated world long cycles and raised a number of important issues. Most of these authors emphasize the period since the start of major European influence on the world while others go back prior to that period. With the exceptions of works by Klingberg and this author, however, similar attention has not been given to American trends. Pollins and Schweller (1997) do explore some issues relating to interactions of American and world cycles. The author believes that a conceptual comparison of American long cycles with world long cycles will raise some important issues, and that is the purpose of this paper.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:
United States

4521. Fearful, but not MAD — Modeling the Security Dilemma of Conventional Conflict

Author:
Erik Melander
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
This paper presents a simple and straightforward model of the security dilemma in settings in which the parties lack secure second–strike capabilities with weapons of mass destruction. The model includes first–strike advantages and incomplete information as to the antagonist's preference ordering. Imperfect information is used to simulate mutual fear of surprise attack.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Government

4522. The Growth Of Civil Society And Citizen Input To Foreign Policymaking: The Case Of Korea

Author:
Tong Whan Park
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Though a half century has passed since the creation of a modern nation-state, Korea lags far behind Western European nations in the development of a civil society. It may be due to a number of factors, the most important of which could be the different path to modernization Korea has taken and the forced imposition of the nation-state system on a Confucian social structure. As such, the Seoul government's decision-making in general and foreign policymaking in particular have often lacked sensitivity to what the citizens may think and desire.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
Israel, Korea, and Western Europe

4523. Dueling with Uncertainty: The New Logic of American Military Planning

Author:
Carl Conetta and Charles Knight
Publication Date:
02-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Examines how the new planning concepts and methods adopted by the Pentagon since 1992 have led to military requirements disproportionate to real threats and have supported overweening ambitions for the application of military power. A version appeared in the March/April 1998 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists as “Inventing Threats.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
United States of America

4524. Time to Reinvent APEC

Author:
Edward Lincoln and Kenneth Flamm
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, provides an opportunity for 18 countries with strong trade and investment ties to discuss a wide range of economic issues. APEC has scored two tangible achievements to date: a sweeping but vaguely worded 1994 pledge by its member states to open up to free trade and investment by 2010 and 2020, and a central role in the negotiation of the 1996 Information Technology Agreement (ITA). However, APEC is in danger of fading. When this year's summit begins on November 19, the United States must push for major reform of the APEC bargaining process if the organization is to have any chance of realizing its ambitious trade reform targets.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

4525. Globaphobia: The Wrong Debate Over Trade Policy

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence and Robert E. Litan
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The outcome of the fast-track debate that opened this month will determine whether the United States continues to lead the world toward a more open global economy or whether, for the first time since the end of World War II, it sends the opposite message.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

4526. Landmines: Africa's Stake, Global Initiatives

Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
The momentum for a comprehensive global ban on anti-personnel landmines is growing rapidly, and 1997 is a particularly decisive year. Africa is the most heavily mined continent, and African governments and non-governmental landmine campaigns are taking an increasingly prominent role in the global effort. The South African and Mozambican governments both announced comprehensive bans in February 1997, just as the 4th International NGO Conference on Landmines was convening in Maputo, Mozambique. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is being urged to quickly declare Southern Africa a mine-free zone, and non-governmental campaigns are gathering steam in many other African countries.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

4527. Making Connections for Africa: Constituencies, Movements, Interest Groups, Coalitions, and Conventional Wisdoms

Author:
William Minter
Publication Date:
03-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
This paper was prepared by APIC Senior Research Fellow William Minter for the Constituency Builders' Dialogue organized by the Africa Policy Information Center, held at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia, over the weekend of January 10-12, 1997. The Dialogue was designed as an opportunity for a diverse group of activists from different sectors of Africa advocacy work in the United States to step back, reflect and engage in dialogue on the strategic directions for grassroots Africa constituency-building in the current period. The Dialogue was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and by ongoing support from the Ford Foundation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and New York

4528. Future Prospects for the U.S. Defense Budget and Their Implications for Our Asian Alliance Commitments

Author:
Andrew Krepinevich
Publication Date:
08-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This talk addresses two issues. First, given the level of American defense spending, are there enough resources available to sustain the U.S. presence in East Asia, over the long term, along the lines of the current commitment of approximately 100,000 troops? Second, even if there is adequate funding to maintain forward deployed troops, are these the kinds of investments we ought to be making, given the transformations we are seeing in the geopolitical environment and, I would argue, the military-technical environment? Will these investments, in other words, achieve American security objectives in East Asia over the next ten to twenty years?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, America, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

4529. Environmentalism, Free Trade and Regionalism in Theoretical Perspective: An Unholy Developmental Trinity?

Author:
Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Why do policy outcomes invariably fall short of expectations? Almost all studies of this puzzling topic over the last generation have revolved around a study of the limits of rational behavior. Although this literature is extraordinarily enriching, as society becomes more complex, the gap between policy intentions and outcomes seems to be widening, and constrained rational behavior appears to be accounting for increasingly less of that gap. Three incompatible policy areas today are environmentalism, free trade, and regionalism. This investigation undertakes a comparative analysis of the principles and key dimensions of those three policy areas, then transforms Benjamin Cohen's unholy monetary trinity into an unholy developmental trinity to offer a theoretical framework within which this incompatible policy-mix may be explained.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance

4530. Forever in the Shadow of Churchill?: Britain and the Memory of World War Two at the End of the Twentieth Century

Author:
Nile Gardiner
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Studies at Yale University
Abstract:
This paper examines recent debates in Britain surrounding the memory of the Second World War. Part one is an examination of the controversy sparked by the publication in 1993 of John Charmley's Churchill: The End of Glory, and Alan Clark's article in The Times, “A Reputation Ripe for Revision?”
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

4531. Saudi Arabia in the 1990s: Stability and Foreign Policy

Author:
Mordechai Abir
Publication Date:
09-1997
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The stability of Saudi Arabia (and the Persian Gulf as a whole) is crucially important to the world's industrial countries. According to the Gulf Center of Strategic Studies, "oil is expected to account for 38 percent of all the world consumption of energy until 2015, compared to 39 percent in 1993. Increasing world-wide demand for oil, now about 74 million barrels per day, is projected to rise by 2015 to about 110 million" (Gulf Report, London, July 1997). Over 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia alone controls 25 percent of the total.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

4532. The Viability of U.S. Security Strategy Toward the Korean Peninsula

Author:
William J. Taylor, Jr. and Abraham Kim
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The end of the cold war resulted in a mixed bag of challenges in the Northeast Asia region. The Soviet threat is gone, but the danger of regional instability is not. Lingering conflicts, old rivalries, and security challenges pose an uncertain future for the Asia-Pacific. The U.S. military presence still remains an important stabilizer in the region. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense, William Perry stated: "It is [the U.S. military] presence that the countries of the [Asia-Pacific] region consider a critical variable in the East Asia security equation.... [and] the most important factor in guaranteeing stability and peace."
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, South Korea, and North Korea

4533. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

4534. Time to End the Certification Circus

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
More than a decade ago, the U.S. Congress established a procedure whereby each year the president must “certify” that a given country is cooperating with us in the eradication of drug production and trafficking. Governments that lag behind, show little enthusiasm for our crusade, or are found colluding with narco-lords are subject to sanctions. Those “decertified” are denied foreign assistance, as well as U.S. votes for loans at the international financial institutions. Such countries–or, rather, our investors in their countries–also become ineligible for premiums from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Narcotics Trafficking, and Drugs
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

4535. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America

4536. Arms Sales: An Old Issue Revisited

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
06-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Is the United States on the verge of pushing the major Latin American countries into a new arms race? Time seems to think so, to judge by a long article in the April 14 issue. Subtitled “the inside story of how the Pentagon and big defense contractors got the President to open the way for weapons sales to Latin America,” Time claims to provide the background to the Clinton administration’s current review of arms transfer policy. In so doing, the article revives an old controversy, namely, what role the United States plays (or should play) in the acquisition (or denial) of expensive military hardware, particularly to countries that lie within its own sphere of influence and, in the opinion of arms control experts, humanitarians, and journalists, “don’t need weapons at all.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Latin America

4537. Mexico’s Midterm Elections: A Major Turning Point?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
07-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On July 6, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a new Chamber of Deputies, renew a quarter of the Senate, and choose governors and legislators in six states. They will also have the opportunity to elect–for the first time–the governor of Mexico City, a position that, until now, has been appointive rather than elected. These races amount to both a midterm referendum on the stewardship of President Ernesto Zedillo and a crucial test of his ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Elections, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

4538. Argentina: Another Round at the Polls

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
This month President Clinton visits Argentina, a major South American country that in recent years has become one of our most valued and trusted Latin allies. His presence there will underscore the special relationship that President Carlos Sal Menem has forged with the United States, a relationship that is a mirror image of Argentina’s historic antagonism toward Washington and all its works. Clinton’s presence will also highlight Argentina’s significant victories in the economic field–in the war against inflation, in the struggle to reestablish creditworthiness, and, above all, in its efforts to attract significant new foreign investment from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The visit precedes by about ten days an important midterm election, which in all probability will determine the political lineup for that country’s 1999 presidential election. In this regard, the most important development has been the creation of a multiparty coalition, the Alliance, which will be running joint lists against the candidates of Menem’s own Peronist Party. If the Peronists hold their own on October 26, Menem will be tempted to make a bid for an unprecedented third term. If they are soundly defeated, the struggle for succession within Peronism will begin the morning after. But a victory for the Alliance by no means clearly points the way for the opposition, which is beset by profound divisions of its own. This vagueness makes these elections a particularly interesting lens through which to view Argentina’s continuing evolution.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

4539. Who’s Afraid of Big Bad Brazil?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On his trip to South America last month, President Clinton made quite a splash in Brazil. After starting off badly–dodging a torrent of manure thrown at his motorcade–he ended the week with the local media singing his praises. The secret of his success? The president (a quick study if there ever was one) immediately grasped that the best way to get along with Brazilians was to repeat back to them–with redoubled enthusiasm–what they told him about themselves. Thus, by the time Clinton had been in the country for thirty-six hours, he was expressing his conviction that Brazil, together with the United States, would lead the hemisphere in the twenty-first century. He also went out of his way to insist on his support for Mercosur, a subregional trade agreement-cum-political alliance of whose existence Clinton was probably only peripherally aware before his trip. In so doing, he seemed to be writing off an entire continent to the Brazilian sphere of influence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Politics, and Reform
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and United States of America

4540. Co-Sponsored Projects: Germany's Role In Shaping the New Europe: Architect, Model and Bridge

Author:
Daniel N. Nelson, Andrei S. Markovits, Thomas Banchoff, Patricia A. Davis, Christian Deubner, Lily Gardner Feldman, JoEllyn Murillo Fountain, Stefan Immerfall, Michael Kreile, Carl Lankowski, Barbara Lippert, Susanne Peters, Elke Thiel, and Wolfgang Wessels
Publication Date:
04-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
This paper seeks to explain the continuity in German policy in Europe across the 1990 divide. Although the collapse of the Soviet bloc and reunification transformed the context of German foreign policy, its fundamental direction remained unchanged. The new Germany, like the old, made solidarity with the western allies the cornerstone of its policy in Europe. Chancellor Helmut Kohl did address new policy challenges in the East. But he made stronger western institutions, and a deeper European Union in particular, his top priorities. Neorealism and neoliberalism, this paper argues, cannot adequately explain the strong western orientation of the Federal Republic in the early 1990s. The constellation of power and institutions at the international level left German leaders with different ways to combine association with the West and engagement in the East. In order to explain the priority accorded solidarity with the West, it is necessary to bring in the foreign policy priorities espoused by Kohl and the views of history and its lessons that informed them.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

4541. Discourse Analysis as Foreign Policy Theory

Author:
Ole Wæver
Publication Date:
11-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Where is Germany heading? So we have been asking ourselves since the wall fell. We had been reasonably calmed down: they were apparently not out for new adventures of their own. No Eastward going it alone -- neither in Eastern Europe, nor with the Russians. Nor any autonomous power politics. On the contrary, Germany has primarily made itself noticed in global politics through its continued restraint, from half-hearted support in the Gulf War to qualms over participation in UN operations.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Germany

4542. Legitimate Rule in the European Union

Author:
Frank Schimmelfennig
Publication Date:
08-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Two seemingly contradictory trends dominate the European debate over legitimate rule. On the one hand, there appears to be no ideologically viable alternative to liberal democracy following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc. On the other, the rapid progress of European integration has triggered an intense public debate over the European Union's "legitimacy deficit" and active popular opposition in many Western European countries. This paper asks whether these two seemingly contradictory developments can be reconciled. It argues that they can once it is recognized that the modern inter-state system is undergoing profound change. State sovereignty is being undermined by the trans-nationalization of foreign policy and the inter-nationalization of governance. In particular, the European Union has crossed the border from horizontal (or anarchical) interstate cooperation to vertical (or hierarchical) policy making in a multi-level political system in which states are but one level of the policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, International Organization, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe

4543. Thinking Regionally: Priorities for U.S. Policy Toward Africa

Author:
Salih Booker
Publication Date:
03-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
Recent Congressional action to significantly cut aid to Africa is only one sign among many of a trend to reduce U.S. involvement on the continent. How much further Africa is marginalized in the U.S. will ultimately depend on the ability of Africa's multiple constituencies to reverse this trend. Nevertheless, events on the continent are likely to compel a greater commitment of resources than U.S. policymakers currently contemplate. And engagement at any level needs to be based on clear identification of U.S. interests in Africa and well-defined criteria for establishing priorities.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

4544. A United States Policy for the Changing Realities of East Asia

Author:
Donald Emmerson, Henry Rowen, Michel Oksenberg, Daniel Okimoto, James Raphael, Thomas Rohlen, and Michael H. Armacost
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, the power and prestige of the United States in East Asia have suffered a worrisome degree of erosion. The erosion is, in part, the by-product of long-run secular trends, such as structural shifts in the balance of power caused by the pacesetting growth of East Asian economies. But the decline has been aggravated by shortcomings in U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly the lack of a coherent strategy and a clear-cut set of policy priorities for the post-Cold War environment. If these shortcomings are not corrected, the United States runs the risk of being marginalized in East Asia--precisely at a time when our stakes in the region are as essential as those in any area of the world. What is needed, above all, is a sound, consistent, and publicly articulated strategy, one which holds forth the prospect of serving as the basis for a sustainable, nonpartisan domestic consensus. The elements of an emerging national consensus can be identified as follows:
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

4545. The Journey to Democracy: 1986-1996

Author:
Robert A. Pastor
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
In my travels throughout Latin America, I have always found the region's leaders eager to converse with American statesmen, but with few exceptions, they mostly had to content themselves with speaking to specialists like me. The kind of transnational dialogue that would permit hemispheric relations to rise to a higher level just did not exist. When President Carter asked if I would direct a new program at The Carter Center, my thoughts turned to the question of whether I could help form a group of senior statesmen from thoughts the hemisphere, who not only could consult with each other, but also work together to advance the ideals of human rights, democracy, social justice, and equitable development that lie at the core of the inter-American promise.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

4546. Neo-conservatism: Some Theoretical and Terminological Clarifications

Author:
Jesus Velasco
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The classification of current political tendencies in the United States is sometimes confusing. Since the beginning of Ronald Reagan's first presidential campaign, American journalists and scholars have used indistinctly terms like right, conservatism, neoconservatism, ultraconservatism, extreme right, New Right, etc., to define the different political forces behind Reagan's ascent to the White House. This confusion is evident in the work of John Judis. He believes that Kevin Phillips (a conservative scholar), Paul Weyrich (a New Right activist), Irving Kristol (a neoconservative leader), and William Buckley (a traditional conservative), could all be embraced within the term "conservative" without considering any differences in their theoretical and political position.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and America

4547. Caribbean Basin Economic Development and the Section 936 Tax Credit

Author:
Richard L. Bernal and Stephen E. Lamar
Publication Date:
12-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In 1986, as part of a major overhaul of the U.S. tax code, the U.S. Congress made a valuable source of private sector financing available for Caribbean economic development. Less than 10 years later, as part of a series of measures to balance the U.S. federal budget and enact a package of tax cuts for small businesses, the Congress approved legislation to terminate this source of funds for the Caribbean.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Development, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States and Caribbean

4548. The Binational Center and U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:
Louis P. Falino
Publication Date:
06-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
The binational center (BNC) has been one of the most successful elements in U.S. cultural programs overseas and, as such, has made important contributions to U.S. foreign policy. Through the historical study of binational centers, one sees that contemporary issues in cultural relations and public diplomacy have been dealt with on many occasions in the past, and they resurface according to the demands of the moment. This historical study of BNCs thus provides a way of reflecting upon and reconsidering perennial issues involving cultural programs and the effective conduct of U.S. foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States

4549. Checklist for the Future of Intelligence

Author:
John Hollister Hedley
Publication Date:
01-1995
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
A changing world fraught with new uncertainties and complexities challenges America to understand the issues and dangers U.S. foreign and defense policy must confront. Economically and politically, however, it is a fact of life that the United States must engage the post-Cold War world with a smaller, more cost-efficient intelligence capability than the 13-organization, $28-billion-dollar intelligence apparatus of today. This might be achieved by a meat-cleaver approach—such as across-the-board cuts based on the erroneous assumption that every part of the apparatus is equally dispensable or indispensable. Preferably, it can—and will—be accomplished by prudently eliminating redundancy and by abandoning missions no longer deemed essential or affordable.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Cold War, Intelligence, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and America

4550. Bulgaria and the Balkans in the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union

Author:
Plamen Pantev, Valeri Ratchev, and Venelin Tsachevski
Publication Date:
07-1995
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Bulgaria's integration in the European Union (EU) became an undoubted strategic objective of the country, forming the basis of a national consensus among the political forces and society in general. The association stage of the integration process implies the beginning of an active, purposeful adaptation of the different branches of national policy to the main directions of EU's common undertakings. This means that the country's foreign relations and national security policy need to adapt to the Common foreign and security policy (CFSP), Common defence policy (CDP) and Common Defence (CD) of EU. A short study cannot cover all essential details about the character, history, formation and implementation of CFSP of EU, as well as specific issues touching certain Bulgarian interests. The Institute for Security and International Studies, recognising the special meaning of the forthcoming Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) in 1996 of EU member states, will carry out three other shorter studies, in addition to the present one. This should help develop a better picture of the following issues: the political dialogue of EU with the associated countries in Central and Eastern Europe (ACCEE); the economic factors of stability on the Balkan peninsula; and Russia's relations with EU and the repercussions for Southeast Europe.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Bulgaria, and Balkans