Topic: Foreign Policy - CIAO Search Results

401. ¡Cómo hemos cambiado! La respuesta política de la Unión Europea ante la invasión rusa de Ucrania

Author:: Mercedes Guinea Llorente
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: La Unión Europea se ha visto fuertemente afectada por el conflicto derivado de la invasión rusa de Ucrania de 2022, que no solo amenaza su seguridad, sino que cuestiona su propio modelo. En este artículo analizamos los elementos de innovación que entraña la respuesta de la UE a la guerra en Ucrania. En una primera dimensión, estudiamos los aspectos institucionales relativos a las politics, donde puede verificarse un desarrollo de la PESC. En segundo lugar, analizamos las políticas formuladas para incidir en el conflicto, tanto las actuaciones políticas contra Rusia, como las medidas de apoyo a Ucrania. Se detectan muchos elementos de innovación que muestran una gran ambición, compromiso y determinación por parte de los Estados miembros que atestigua que son conscientes de que en Ucrania se juega su futuro.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

402. Identity and Foreign Policy: Comparative Studies of Indonesian and Malaysian Foreign Policies in Relation to Israel

Author:: Ali Muhammad, Ilham Agustian Candra, and Ahmad Sahide
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article compares the foreign policies of Indonesia and Malaysia towards Israel. Through the use of social constructivism, the study examines the extent to which the identity of the state plays a critical role in the foreign policy of both Muslim-majority countries. It argues that Malaysia's anti-Israeli policy and refusal to establish diplomatic relations with Israel is mainly due to its Muslim identity and pressure from Muslim constituencies. In the case of Indonesia, the main factors stem from its national identity, which is strongly anti-colonialist and antiimperialist, as enshrined in its national constitution. Although Muslim identity is also important in Indonesia, it is not the primary determining factor in the country's foreign policy towards Israel.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Constructivism, and Identity
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Malaysia, Middle East, Israel, and Asia-Pacific

403. Wedged between East and West – The chances of an interest-based Hungarian foreign policy and the war in Ukraine

Author:: Andrea Schmidt
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Hungarian foreign policy has been in the international spotlight, raising doubts about its direction. The purpose of this article is to highlight the contradictions between an interest-based and a value-based foreign policy. A theoretical introduction is followed by a brief analysis of the elements of a pragmatic foreign policy. At the same time, the second part of the paper presents a short case study from the Western Balkans. The Hungarian position on two countries, Kosovo and Serbia, will be analysed, not forgetting that these two countries are examples of the changes that have taken place in the relations between Hungary and Serbia. Despite earlier nationalist tensions, Serbia has become Hungary's almost sole ally in the region, putting the minority issue in the background and adopting a pragmatic approach. In this essay, we will also try to identify the considerations that guided Hungarian diplomacy in its position towards the West. Finally, we will discuss the extent to which the original goal of "occupying Brussels" was realistic and the consequences of Hungary's pragmatic foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Conflict, Pragmatism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Hungary, and Western Balkans

404. Russia and China in Central Asia: Cooperate, Compete, or De-conflict?

Author:: Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Lisa Curtis, Kate Johnston, and Nathaniel Schochet
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Despite the many proclamations that Russian and Chinese interests would collide in Central Asia, Moscow and Beijing continue to work together in service of their shared objectives. These include, most importantly, keeping the United States and the West—and democracy—out of the region, maintaining stability, and pursuing economic benefits. Fissures between Moscow and Beijing exist, especially in the economic sphere, where China has become the more dominant power, and over the potential development of the Middle Corridor trade route, which could significantly disadvantage Russia. However, Russia and China are managing these divergences, and the overarching imperative to weaken the United States provides a powerful motive for reducing or preventing any friction from derailing their broader partnership. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened the Central Asian states’ apprehensions about Russia, including about its capacity to uphold its security role in the region. However, the Kremlin remains committed to maintaining its influence in the region, and the war in Ukraine is restructuring economic dynamics in ways that will enable the Kremlin to limit the extent of its declining economic influence. Looking forward, the most significant change in Russia-China relations in Central Asia is likely to occur in the security sphere, where China is likely to take on a greater role, especially as Russia’s military and security services are preoccupied in Ukraine and with the domestic challenges the war creates. Any rise in instability in the region—which could result from an uptick in terrorist threats in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, or from the region’s brittle autocracies—could propel China to step into a sphere where Russia has historically played the primary role but that the Kremlin will struggle to fulfill while the war in Ukraine continues. For Russia and China, Central Asia is also likely to be an important building block in their larger counterorder-building effort. The two countries are likely to sustain—and step up—their efforts to build an alternative order in Central Asia, including by deepening cooperation and broadening the number of countries participating in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to legitimize and demonstrate the benefits of their collective global leadership. This effort will face resistance from the Central Asian states that object to the concept of a Russia-China condominium of power in their region and have shown an ability to come together to resist attempts to turn the SCO into a forum that would strengthen a collective Russia-China security role in the region. The United States has an opportunity to redouble its engagement in Central Asia. The Central Asian states highly value U.S. political support for their independence and sovereignty, especially following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Washington can encourage greater connectivity and cohesion among the countries, demonstrating its support for their increasing cooperation with one another in ways that could strengthen the region’s economic attractiveness and political agency. This contrasts with the way in which Russia has traditionally dealt with the region, which is to try to capitalize on divisions and disputes among the countries. While it cannot match China dollar for dollar or supplant Russia’s cultural and political influence in the region, the United States can enhance its trade, investment, energy, counterterrorism, and diplomatic ties to these countries. Enhancing U.S. and European investment in Central Asia, especially for development of the Middle Corridor, could help prevent Russia and China from further deepening their grip on the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, Cooperation, Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Central Asia, and Asia

405. Beyond China's Black Box: Five Trends Shaping Beijing’s Foreign and Security Policy Decision-Making Under Xi Jinping

Author:: Jacob Stokes
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: China’s foreign and security policymaking apparatus is often described as a metaphorical black box about which analysts know little. That is true to an extent, but at the same time, it is possible to develop a better understanding of the people, institutions, processes, and pressures that go into making China’s policies toward the world during Xi’s “new era,” that is, his time as the country’s top leader. This report pursues that objective by identifying five major trends mostly internal to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) party-state system that shape its foreign and security policymaking. In addition, the paper describes the effects that each trend generates, from bureaucratic incentives to behavioral patterns. The first trend is personalization of the system around Xi. It reduces the influence of various interest groups and therefore the need to bargain with and among them, raises the prospect of groupthink among the loyalists Xi has surrounded himself with, and potentially increases the importance of achieving certain goals for China on Xi’s watch. In addition, Xi’s centrality creates a major management bottleneck that could hamper the system during even brief absences. The second trend is empowering the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over the state. That trend has made more officials into policy-implementers rather than policymakers, even on issues below the level of strategy. It has also increased central demands for ideological activities, such as Xi Jinping Thought study sessions. At the same time, while the leadership wants to improve coordination and might be making some progress, it stops short of actions that could allow government organs to coordinate horizontally if doing so might plausibly jeopardize the center’s control. The third trend is domestic policy headwinds and the search for alternative forms of political legitimacy for the CCP. This creates two contradictory pressures: China’s reaching out and trying to improve ties with the world, and its turn to an assertive and at times even aggressive form of nationalism to counteract stalling economic growth. It also dents the power and influence China gained through its rapid rise and its role as a massive market driving global economic growth. The fourth trend is further elevation of regime security over other concerns. This trend negatively affects Beijing’s ties with foreign countries by worsening the experience of foreigners visiting and living in China, exporting repressive political ideas and techniques to the world, and complicating how China’s foreign and security bureaucracy interacts with its counterparts. The fifth and final trend is diplomatic and military assertiveness and seeking an active global leadership role, which feeds a self-reinforcing cycle of growing tensions, requires PRC diplomats to shoehorn any activities into Xi’s marquee frameworks, and leads Beijing to build out structures of an alternative international order. Examining these trends helps illuminate the macro pressures shaping China’s foreign and security policy decision-making. Still, aspects of how the party-state makes decisions about its foreign and security policies—“known unknowns” —remain particularly opaque. These include information flows to senior leaders, the dynamic among Xi and his top advisors, and the structure and frequency of important meetings. More knowledge in those areas might shed light on larger questions related to whether there are informal constraints on Xi’s power and how Xi is thinking about eventual transfer of power.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Xi Jinping, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: China and Asia

406. The China-Russia Entente in East Asia: Contending with Authoritarian Partnership in a Critical Region

Author:: Jacob Stokes, Evan Wright, and Nathaniel Schochet
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Closer cooperation between China and Russia is a major force driving global geopolitics. But how relations between the two authoritarian powers are shaping specific regional and functional areas remains understudied. This report helps to fill that gap for the critical region of East Asia. The China-Russia relationship has improved despite—and, in some ways, because of—Russia’s war in Ukraine. Beijing helps to fuel Russia’s war machine and defends the principles Moscow uses to justify the invasion. Both powers are also deepening and expanding their relationship beyond Ukraine. The pair cooperate across a range of fields, from military affairs to economics and global norms. Undoubtedly, current and potential fissures remain in the bilateral relationship. However, the leadership in both countries carefully manages these tensions to ensure they do not derail the overall relationship. Beijing-Moscow coordination extends to East Asian hot spots, including the areas around Japan, the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. Around Japan, China and Russia work together to advance their respective territorial claims and pressure a rival Northeast Asian power and close U.S. ally. China and Russia use multiple military tools in pursuit of those goals, including joint aerial and naval patrols, joint exercises, and incursions into Japan’s air defense identification zone. Together, these activities put significant operational strain on the Self-Defense Forces, Japan’s military, as they respond. On the Korean Peninsula, China and Russia have turned away from multilateral cooperation to manage the North Korea threat and toward blaming democracies and reaching out to Pyongyang instead. Russia has moved closer to North Korea to help offset Moscow’s diplomatic isolation and barter for weapons. But that cooperation has not yet undermined China’s preferences or interests. Beijing maintains its own working relationship with Pyongyang while coordinating with Moscow to blunt international pressure on North Korea. How China and Russia manage their relations in East Asia will be a major factor shaping the regional diplomatic and security environment. To the south, Russia increasingly backs Beijing’s actions to pressure Taiwan as Taipei reaches out to democracies worldwide. Moscow’s support for Beijing has been particularly pronounced during major cross-Strait events in recent years. In the South China Sea, Russia tries to balance historical relationships with Southeast Asian states even as its power wanes and subservience to China deepens. For example, Russia’s cooperation on energy projects with Vietnam shows that Beijing’s and Moscow’s regional interests sometimes diverge. How China and Russia manage their relations in East Asia will be a major factor shaping the regional diplomatic and security environment. Moscow’s presence and power in East Asia have already suffered because of its disastrous war in Ukraine. Over time, Russia likely will become even more subservient to China. The China-Russia entente might therefore prove most useful for Beijing in its home region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, Partnerships, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

407. U.S. Grand Strategy in the Early Cold War: Priorities, Concerns and Policy Actions

Author:: Humayun Javed
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The study aims to identify U.S. concerns and priorities in the immediate post-WWII era while exploring the primary American considerations in formulating a grand strategy during the early Cold War. The paper addresses the question that were Washington’s policy choices during the last stages of the Second World War and early Cold War primarily being driven by Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe. The study is qualitative in nature and uses exploratory research because the existing literature on the early Cold War does not sufficiently explain the rationale for American policymakers to adopt a global role. The research argues that the unmatched extent of U.S. power and influence, along with an ambitious vision to reshape the postwar institutional and security architecture, allowed Washington to formulate a grand strategy for its economic and political footprint in Asia and Europe, where the Soviet Union remained the only standing – yet immensely devastated – victorious power. Moscow’s own traditional insecurities on its western frontier and its considerable strategic influence and vision to shape the political and security landscape in Europe produced U.S.-Soviet tensions as their cooperation due to a common German threat had vanished. Therefore, American leadership was focused on taking global responsibility in the early Cold War to shape postwar international economic and political order in light of the prewar lessons and contain Soviet power and influence from jeopardizing U.S. preeminence on the global stage.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, Grand Strategy, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

408. India’s Strategic Choices in the Multipolar World

Author:: Surendra Kumar Yadawa
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The post-World War II landscape underwent a seismic shift, crystallising into a bipolar structure with the US-led West facing off against the Soviet Union, instigating the Cold War. However, the USSR's collapse in 1991 shattered this bipolarity, ushering in an era of American dominance (unipolarity). Yet, this once unassailable US-led global order is undergoing rapid contraction. In its wake, a fresh paradigm is unfolding as novel power centres coalesce to address shared dissatisfactions. Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran forge convergences, beckoning others to unite against US-led supremacy. Astonishingly, Saudi Arabia aligns with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a dialogue partner, relegating its erstwhile oil-for-security doctrine to antiquity. Simultaneously, the Brazilian President advocates terminating dollar supremacy. In a bold affront, Russia challenges the US world order through its Ukrainian incursion. Notably, Emmanuel Macron declares Taiwan beyond the West's scope, potentially puncturing American hegemony. This paper fervently explores how the burgeoning multipolar world order engenders arenas for regional powers, scrutinising the prospects and hurdles that confront New Delhi as it navigates India’s foreign policy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

409. Starr Forum: The 2024 US presidential election: The world is watching

Author:: Katrina Burgess, John Githongo, Prerna Singh, Daniel Ziblatt, and Evan Lieberman
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: The 2024 US presidential election: The world is watching: Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024. Experts weigh-in on how citizens and leaders from other world regions are viewing the November 5th US election. What do they believe is at stake for their countries and regions? Is America still seen as a model for democracy? How do they view the candidates? SPEAKERS: Katrina Burgess on Latin America. Katrina Burgess is professor of political economy and director of the Henry J Leir Institute of Migration and Human Security at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. Her research areas include Latin America, political economy of development, comparative politics, and migration and diasporas. She is the writer and producer of Waylaid in Tijuana, a documentary film that explores US immigration policies. "Courting Migrants: How States Make Diasporas and Diasporas Make State," is one of her award-winning books. John Githongo on Africa. John Githongo hails from Kenya, where he was a journalist and became a leading light in the international Transparency movement. He has held a variety of government, non-government and academic appointments, and was recognized by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the world’s 100 top global thinkers. Among his many posts, he serves as a senior advisor to the Office of the President of South Sudan on governance. He currently resides at the MIT Center for International Studies as its prestigious Robert E Wilhelm fellow. Prerna Singh on Asia. Prerna Singh is the Mahatma Gandhi Associate Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Brown University. Her research interests include the comparative political economy of development; identity politics; and the politics of South Asia and East Asia. Her book, "How Solidarity Works for Welfare: Subnationalism and Social Development in India," analyzes the causes of variations in social welfare institutions and development by focusing on the dramatic divergences in social policies and outcomes across Indian provinces. Daniel Ziblatt on Europe. Daniel Ziblatt is the director of Harvard University's Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies where he is also Eaton Professor of Government at Harvard University. His research focuses on Europe and the comparative study of democracy. His recent book, "Tyranny of the Minority: Why American Democracy Reached the Breaking Point," co-authored with Steve Levitsky, provides an analysis of American democracy in comparative perspective. Moderator: Evan Lieberman is the Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa and the director of the MIT Center for International Studies. He conducts research on the political-economy of development, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. He studies the democratic politics of governing ethnically and racially diverse societies, including the challenges of public health, climate adaptation, and ensuring respect for human dignity. Lieberman is the author, most recently, of "Until We Have Won Our Liberty: South Africa after Apartheid."
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, Presidential Elections, and Kamala Harris
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

410. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future

Author:: Peter Krause
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: The 2024 U.S. election and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: How the outcome here impacts the situation there
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Presidential Elections, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Kamala Harris
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

411. Starr Forum: The Israel-Gaza crisis and US policy

Author:: Dennis Ross and Melani Cammett
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: The Israel-Gaza crisis and US policy: Tuesday, September 24th, 2024. Introduction: Evan Lieberman, Director, Center for International Studies and Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa Moderator: Philip Khoury, MIT Vice Provost and Ford International Professor of History Closing remarks: Karl Reid, Vice President for Equity and Inclusion, Institute Community & Equity Office Speakers: Dennis Ross is the counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He also teaches at Georgetown University’s Center for Jewish Civilization. For more than twelve years, Ambassador Ross played a leading role in shaping US involvement in the Middle East peace process as the US point man on the peace process in both the George H W Bush and Bill Clinton administrations. He also served as special assistant to President Obama and as National Security Council senior director for the Central Region, and as special advisor on Iran to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Melani Cammett is the Clarence Dillon Professor of International Affairs and director of the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University. She also holds a secondary faculty appointment in the Harvard Chan School of Public Health. Cammett's award-winning books include "Compassionate Communalism: Welfare and Sectarianism in Lebanon" and "A Political Economy of the Middle East." Her current research projects explore "toleration" and reconciliation after ethnoreligious violence, development and identity politics. She has published numerous articles in academic and policy journals, consults for development policy organizations, and serves as a commissioner on the Lancet Commission on Syria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and United States of America

412. Iranians Don’t Want a War With Israel

Author:: Kourosh Ziabari
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Most believe that Tehran’s engagement in the battle for Palestinian emancipation is intrusive and uncalled for
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

413. China Tests the Water in Palestinian Diplomacy

Author:: Ramzy Baroud
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: While the ramifications of the recent unity agreement signed in Beijing by multiple Palestinian factions remain to be seen, it is evident that China has stepped up as a leader in the region
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, and Palestine

414. Is Israel’s Star Fading in Latin America?

Author:: Jodor Jalit
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The Latin American response to Israel’s war on Gaza could help strengthen the rich but neglected cultural ties with Arab states
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Arab Countries, and Latin America

415. A Feminist Foreign Policy Approach to Counter-terrorism

Author:: Shannon Zimmerman
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:: This brief explores what a feminist foreign policy approach to counter-terrorism might look like. A key role of foreign policy is to ensure a state’s national security. However, the field of national security in most countries is deeply gendered. State approaches to addressing terrorism and violent extremism are no exception to this, despite clear evidence that gender-sensitive approaches to counter-terrorism and preventing/countering violence extremism are more effective. This brief highlights the value added by including feminist approaches to counter-terrorism and explores what such an approach might entail. Last, it describes how Australia might apply a feminist approach to its current counter-terrorism activities to ensure initiatives are more comprehensive, effective and sustainable.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, and Feminism
Political Geography:: Australia and Global Focus

416. From Security Alliance to Comprehensive Technology Centered Partnership

Author:: Scott Snyder
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol administrations have embraced the expansion of economic cooperation within the US-ROK alliance, leading to the emergence of South Korea as a valued technology partner of the United States and an era of institutionalization for the bilateral relationship. This issue of Korea Policy examines the commitments of the two governments to cooperate on the development of critical and emerging technologies and is intended to capture major changes in the depth of cooperation reflected in the intensification and expansion of policy dialogues between the two countries in both technology development and the defense industrial base. Major themes highlighted across the papers include challenges to maintaining a technology-centered coalition among like-minded partners, the impact of political transition on the sustainability of technology-driven cooperation, the role of the private sector, and the implications of expanding the concept of an alliance beyond its core security-centered logic. As the alliance management baton passes from the Biden to the Donald Trump administration, an important question will be whether the Biden administration’s efforts to “lock in” institutionalized cooperation are sustainable through the political transition and whether such efforts will only be successful with “buy-in” from President Trump and his new administration.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

417. Spillover effects of the recent US monetary policy shocks on the South African economy: The role of monetary and fiscal policy coordination

Author:: Guangling Liu and Marrium Mustapher
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This study examines how different policy mix regimes affect the impact of recent US contractionary monetary policy on South Africa’s inflation and business cycles. The study uses a small open economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with an integrated fiscal block to analyse these effects. Regime M (active monetary policy) is more effective at containing the spillover effects but leads to higher public debt, requiring larger future fiscal surpluses. The commitment to price stability under Regime M increases real interest rates, raising domestic debt service costs and the debt-to-GDP ratio. Regime F (active fiscal policy), in contrast, stabilizes debt more quickly but at the cost of higher inflation, as it does not use future surpluses to manage public debt. These spillover effects are more amplified under both Regime M and Regime F in the case of a complete exchange rate pass-through and a higher degree of trade openness, with Regime F exhibiting a stronger amplification effect.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

418. A bipartisan Iran strategy for the next US administration—and the next two decades

Author:: Atlantic Council
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The United States needs a bipartisan strategy toward Iran that can be maintained across several administrations, one that works patiently and resolutely to counter Iran’s efforts to dominate the Middle East, drive the United States out, destroy Israel, and threaten Arab allies. Pressure to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and to halt its malign regional influence is crucial—but won’t work absent a strategic goal of new negotiations to address both challenges simultaneously. The United States must also counter Iran’s hostage taking, assassinations, and cyber and election meddling by triggering automatic penalties and responses in lockstep with allies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

419. Economic Cooperation: A Driver of Stability in the MENA Region?

Author:: Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces a complex landscape where economic cooperation is increasingly linked to regional stability. For decades, economic factors have influenced the foreign policy of MENA countries. However, since 2020, shared economic challenges – exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, oil market fluctuations and the global repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – have spurred initiatives for rapprochement. The October 7 attacks and subsequent Gaza and Lebanon conflicts pose a threat to such progresses. Can economic partnerships serve as a basis for lasting peace in MENA region? What forms of collaboration could enhance stability in the face of persistent security challenges? What are the primary constraints and challenges that limit the potential of economic cooperation as a stabilizing force in the MENA region?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economic Cooperation, COVID-19, Armed Conflict, Abraham Accords, Russia-Ukraine War, and Stabilization
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations

420. Is There Life After NATO?

Author:: Marc Trachtenberg
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: It is often claimed that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949 requires the United States to defend “every inch” of NATO territory. The historical evidence, however, shows that this is not the case at all. It is also commonly claimed that until Donald Trump came along, no American president would have dreamed of threatening not to defend the European allies. This too, it turns out, is not supported by the evidence. But it is not just a question of getting the history right. Those historical claims are important because they support the more fundamental claim that the NATO system is so obviously in America’s interest that it needs to be treated as sacrosanct. But has it been such a phenomenal success?
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

421. UK-EU Relations Tracker Q1 2024

Author:: Cleo Davies and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: This edition of UK in a Changing Europe’s UK-EU Relations Tracker covers developments in the first quarter of 2024. The Q1 2024 edition of the tracker looks at the restoration of the Northern Ireland Executive, the ongoing implementation of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), cooperation beyond the TCA such as the ‘working arrangement’ between the UK Home Office and Frontex, and bilateral engagements with European counterparts. The tracker finds that with elections on both sides of the Channel, the debate is starting to focus on what might happen afterwards. The Labour Party has set out further details on how it sees its foreign policy relationship with the EU. And the European Commission published a proposal for a youth mobility scheme with the UK which will now be discussed by member states. It highlights that whilst both sides are thinking about areas for closer cooperation, their respective reactions to each other’s proposals have been lukewarm at best. Some of these could soften post-elections. But with red lines mostly unchanged, and trust still repairing, forging a closer relationship will not be straightforward.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Trade, European Commission, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

422. UK-India relations

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The emphasis on Global Britain which followed the referendum of 2016 led to a significant shift in British foreign policy. Alongside the quest for new trade deals, the Indo-Pacific tilt also marked something of a reorientation. And both trends involved a greater focus on links with India. UK in a Changing Europe has partnered with the King’s India Institute to put together this report assessing the state of the UK-India relations. It underlines the density of ties between the two countries and the various drivers that might shape relations going forward. It covers trade, migration, cultural ties, Indian politics and the diaspora, the role of the diaspora, British Indian voters, upcoming elections in the UK and India, and the future of UK-India relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, South Asia, and India

423. UK-EU foreign, security and defence co-operation

Author:: Joelle Grogan, Jannike Wachowiak, and Richard Whitman
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: With an election looming in the UK, war raging in Ukraine, and the prospect of another Trump presidency in the United States, the possible evolution of the foreign and security policy relationship between the UK and EU has taken on additional salience. The response to Russia’s war on Ukraine has shown that global events can increase UK-EU cooperation on foreign policy. However, while such major events could in future reinforce the sense of the shared challenges faced by the EU and the UK, they may not be sufficient to propel the EU and the UK towards a truly bespoke security and defence agreement. This new report highlights how Labour and the Conservatives differ in their approach to foreign policy with the EU, and what this could mean for the future relationship. It finds that the EU has well-established models for relationships with third countries for cooperation on foreign and security policy. None of these, however, seem appropriate for a country with the foreign policy and military heft of the UK. This in-depth study of UK-EU relations finds that there is scope for a new relationship, but the EU sees the ball as being ‘in the UK’s court’ to push for closer cooperation. It finds that while the EU is likely to welcome further cooperation on foreign policy and crisis management, it is developing a defence industrial strategy focussed on single market members and Ukraine. A bespoke deal involving UK and EU defence industries therefore will encounter significant hurdles.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

424. The East China Sea Dispute: China’s and Japan’s Assertiveness from Mao to Xi

Author:: Andrew Chubb
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: Xi Jinping came to power in 2012 amid a serious foreign policy crisis following the Japanese government’s nationalization of three of the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. The move was aimed at blocking Shintaro Ishihara’s Tokyo municipal government from purchasing the uninhabited islands from their private owner and constructing a harbor and other infrastructure that would further inflame tensions. Although Beijing understood Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s goal was to prevent an even worse crisis, it nonetheless responded by sending maritime law enforcement ships into the Japanese-controlled territorial seas around the islands, backed by a furious propaganda wave that unleashed violent anti-Japanese protests in dozens of cities across China. The result was a fundamental change in the sovereign territorial seas around the islands from Japanese control to overlapping control — a situation that continues to bring ships and aircraft from both sides into close contact on the water, increasing the risk of an accident that could bring about armed conflict. How much of China’s behavior in the East China Sea is attributable to Xi Jinping? To what extent have Sino-Japanese action-reaction dynamics been at play versus longer-term processes of the shifting distribution of power in the region or changes in domestic politics? How important have the hydrocarbon deposits that originally touched off the dispute been, and to what extent have the area’s fisheries — or fisherfolk — been protagonists? This paper assesses these questions using a systematic time-series dataset of both sides’ patterns of behavior over the long term, from its origins in the early 1970s to the Xi era. It visualizes the historical trajectory of the Sino-Japanese disputes in the East China Sea, charting each side’s key moves across domestic, diplomatic, and physical domains and the balance between military, administrative, political, and resource motivations behind them. Quantifying the changes in China’s and Japan’s behaviors in the disputed area from 1970 to 2015 reveals six key dynamics: The East China Sea dispute began over oil and gas resources but switched toward a contest for military and administrative control as China rapidly expanded its naval and coast guard presence in the mid-2000s. China’s policy was already trending in an increasingly assertive direction well before Xi took power. China’s gray-zone assertiveness dates back to the mid-1990s, while coercive methods started in the mid-2000s. The key change Xi has overseen is China’s increasingly militarized — but also regularized — presence in the disputed area. Japanese actors have triggered several acute periods of tension with provocative moves, but China has driven the long-term arc, with its shifts from “shelving” the dispute in the 1970s to greater assertiveness from the mid-1990s to regular coercion from the mid-2000s. The two significant periods of non–Liberal Democratic Party rule in Japan have both preceded surges of Chinese assertiveness followed by Japanese pushback, raising questions about China’s calculations regarding domestic politics in Japan. Despite several high-profile propaganda campaigns and diplomatic blitzes, most of China’s moves have been in the physical domain on the water, while Japan has focused on diplomacy and domestic administrative moves. Xi’s precise role in the escalation around the disputed islands in September 2012 remains unclear, but his centralization of power since the 18th Party Congress has coincided with a regularization of China’s assertive behaviors. A less powerful leader might, like Xi’s predecessors, find it more difficult to prevent substate actors from taking destabilizing actions in the area, as occurred several times in the 2000s.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, History, Maritime, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, and East China

425. On U.S.-China Relations & Political Economy

Author:: Lizzi C. Lee and Neil Thomas
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: Communist leaders may not like electoral democracy but there are few events they will pay more attention to this year than the U.S. presidential election on November 5. General Secretary Xi Jinping says U.S.-China ties are “the most important bilateral relationship in the world,” and Chinese officials, scholars, and netizens are anxious to glean insights about Republican Party candidate and former President Donald Trump and Democratic Party candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris. For Beijing, the stakes are high. The presidencies of first Trump and now Joe Biden saw the United States adopt a posture of “strategic competition” toward China that has significantly impacted the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s external environment and domestic priorities. Trump imposed tariffs on most Chinese imports to the United States, which Biden ramped up in key industries including electric vehicles. Biden introduced extensive export controls aimed at curbing China’s chip industry, which could be expanded to other sectors. Trump and Biden have both elevated U.S. support for Taiwan; strengthened restrictions on inbound and outbound investment with China; and sanctioned hundreds of Chinese government agencies, state-owned enterprises, private firms, and individuals. Biden has further prioritized working with U.S. allies and partners on economic, political, and security policies to blunt China’s influence. Both countries seek “guardrails” against crisis and conflict, but bilateral diplomacy is increasingly fraught and multilateral cooperation on global challenges is increasingly difficult. This essay analyzes the China policies of both candidates, focusing on the diplomatic and economic dimensions of U.S.-China relations, highlighting how a second Trump administration could deliver acute shocks but potential openings while Harris would likely bring continuity with Biden’s approach. It argues that Beijing has no clear preference between the two candidates. Therefore, neither election outcome would fundamentally change China’s international strategy, although the result would produce different tactical responses. It concludes with recommendations for how both Washington and Beijing can safeguard global stability while preserving national sovereignty regardless of who succeeds Biden.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Political Economy, Sovereignty, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

426. On Alliances in Northeast Asia

Author:: Emma Chanlett-Avery, Duyeon Kim, and Yuka Koshino
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: Over the past two years, delegations to Washington from Japan and South Korea have one predominant question for their interlocutors: What would a Trump 2.0 administration mean for their countries and for U.S. global leadership more broadly? Both Asian capitals appreciate the upgrades to their bilateral pacts with the United States under the Biden administration’s alliance-centric foreign policy, and express anxiety about the possible return of Trump as commander-in-chief. Even before his election in 2016, Trump had expressed open disdain for U.S. alliances and that skepticism could be amplified in a second term by his “America First” approach. With Kamala Harris now at the top of the Democratic ticket, Washington analysts assume broad continuity in her foreign policy approach, although nuances may yet emerge. But while a Harris election and a second Trump presidency contrast sharply on policy and style, the views from Seoul and Tokyo point to enduring elements of American foreign policy that are likely in either outcome. In many ways, Trump and Harris share an approach to U.S. economic engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Upon taking office in 2017, Trump fractured the Obama administration’s core economic pillar of the so-called rebalance to Asia by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This divorce drew dismay particularly from Japan; Tokyo had seen the 12-nation free trade pact as its primary tool to blunt China’s rising economic sway over the region and to reinforce its Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy (FOIP). The Biden-Harris administration has similarly expressed little enthusiasm for re-joining the reformed version that Japan salvaged after the U.S. withdrawal, and its signature regional economic policy, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IFEP) lacks the market access that the region’s economies crave. Japan and South Korea also had misgivings about the passage of domestic economic legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act that would have penalized South Korean and Japanese investment in the United States. “Friend-shoring” rhetoric aside, both Seoul and Tokyo see either leader forging an industrial policy that defaults to protectionist trade practices. Both Japan and South Korea are also concerned about diminishing American leadership of the world and the ascendance of illiberal, authoritarian blocs. Biden and the Democratic Party have generally promoted U.S. alliances as underpinning a world order that promotes stability and the rule of law. Yet during Biden’s presidency, wars in Europe and the Middle East have flared, threatening to distract Washington from its Indo-Pacific priorities and driving deep divisions in public opinion both domestically and internationally. Trump and his Republican colleagues, on the other hand, mostly disapprove of U.S. military involvement in international conflict and fidelity to international alliances, particularly NATO. A Trump administration could undermine the rules-based system by brokering deals with authoritarian leaders, neglecting multilateral institutions that seek to quell conflict, and reinforcing the rising ideological isolationism in U.S. politics. Trump and Biden policy convergences aside, Seoul’s and Tokyo’s experiences with each president are starkly different. A Trump presidency would almost certainly present deeper challenges to each country and disrupt the web of security partnerships that both countries view as broadly stabilizing. How Trump would approach the China challenge is likely to be the central question: Will he be relatively supportive of U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific if he sees them as amplifying U.S. power and deterrence? Or will he seek to cut his own deals with Beijing that excludes allies’ interests? Would he demand multifold increases in the burden-sharing agreements supporting the U.S. military presence in the region that allies would resist? A separate set of questions arises considering a Democratic victory. Would Harris opt to continue Biden’s approach to alliances? Would her administration see the Indo-Pacific as equally important to the trans-Atlantic partnership? Would Harris’s foreign policy team have a different view of how to handle strategic competition with China? All of these yet-unanswered questions loom large for Japan and South Korea over the coming months.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Alliance, Donald Trump, Strategic Competition, Presidential Elections, and Kamala Harris
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, and Northeast Asia

427. On South Asia in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Farwa Aamer and Vivek Mishra
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: In the dynamic landscape of geopolitical shifts, U.S. policy toward South Asia has consistently been a critical area of focus. As the region continues to evolve amid changing political, economic, and security imperatives, the outcomes of the upcoming elections in the United States necessitate a reassessment of strategic priorities and approaches. This article delves into the interplay of continuity and change in the U.S. policy toward South Asia, analyzing the implications of the possible electoral shifts and how the United States can navigate its interests and partnerships in this pivotal region post-election.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: South Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

428. Political Turmoil in Bangladesh: Hasina’s Fall, the Rise of an Interim Government, and Regional Dynamics

Author:: Rishi Gupta
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was sworn in as chief adviser (Updeshta) of Bangladesh’s interim government on the evening of August 8, taking the oath of office at the presidential palace in Dhaka. Alongside Yunus, an advisory council consisting of representatives of civil society organizations, student leaders, freedom fighters, law professionals, medical and technical sector representatives, and business leaders also took their oaths. The 84-year-old Yunus, a renowned global figure and the founder of Grameen Bank – a microfinancing institution that provides loans to the poor – was unanimously approved by the army, political leaders, student representatives, civil society organizations, and advocacy groups to head the interim government. His appointment came after weeks of student-led protests, civil unrest, attacks against Hindu minority groups, and clashes between civilians and police in which hundreds of people died. The violence ultimately led the army, headed by Chief of Army Staff General Waker-uz-Zaman, to take control of the country, forcing Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to step down on August 5. Within 72 hours, Yunus had been appointed to stabilize the nation during a period of turmoil. Soon after Zaman’s address to the nation in the presence of opposition leaders, civil society members, and representatives of the Anti-Discrimination Students Movement (ADSM) – a united front against Prime Minister Hasina and her party, the Awami League – Hasina made a panicked call to “come for the moment to India.” For the time being, she remains in India, reportedly in a safe house, but she is expected to eventually move to a third country. According to the Bangladeshi media, Hasina has sought asylum in the United Kingdom. These developments come against the backdrop of her victory in the January 2024 parliamentary elections, when she won a fourth consecutive term.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, Interim Government, Sheikh Hasina, and Muhammad Yunus
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

429. Chinese Nationalism, PRC Resolve, and Crisis Escalation: Views from Indo-Pacific Experts

Author:: Andrew Chubb
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: How do Indo-Pacific experts assess the role of Chinese public opinion during a crisis? Does Chinese nationalist pressure boost Beijing’s resolve in the eyes of analysts, former officials, and policy advisers around the region? What effect does Chinese nationalist outrage have on these strategic elites’ views of different policy approaches? Do China specialists differ from generalists in their interpretations of Chinese public opinion’s significance? This report offers insight into these questions using data from a survey conducted with 799 international affairs experts in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, India, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States in late 2023 and early 2024. Comparing respondents’ views of a crisis before and after Beijing goes public — issuing a public threat statement, leading a wave of online outrage, and permitting street demonstrations — indicates a large majority of experts regard Chinese public opinion as a significant factor in hypothetical crisis situations involving their country. However, its effects on observers’ policy preferences generally run counter to Beijing’s interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nationalism, International Affairs, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: China and Indo-Pacific

430. Stepping up military support to humanitarian assistance in the Pacific

Author:: Blake Johnson and Adam Ziogas
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: On October 3 the South Pacific Defence Ministers Meeting (SPDMM) endorsed the establishment of the Pacific Response Group (PRG), a novel multinational military cooperation initiative that will seek to address the need for more efficient and effective cooperation between Pacific militaries to deliver military support to Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR). In the coming years, the PRG will have to address challenges surrounding the potential expansion of the group and its mission, including into areas like stability operations, and Australia will need to commit greater resources to ensuring that it successfully adapts to the region’s needs. It is important that the thinking, consultation and some of the planning for that starts now. Any decisions regarding the PRG will be made by SPDMM members as a collective, but each member state will have its own perspectives on the group’s development. This report provides 12 recommendations focused on areas including resourcing, encouraging a whole-of-government support, and expansion of the group in size and in scope. The report is intended to inform policymakers in Australia as a contributing member of the PRG, but many of the recommendations could also be valuable for, and hence adopted by, other members of the group. A summary of the recommendations contained in the report are as follows: Recommendation 1: PRG members states should consider the need for an expansion of the PRG beginning as soon as the 2025/2026 high risk weather season and must be able to deal with concurrent disasters. Recommendation 2: The end goal of the HADR component of the PRG should be dedicated forces from each military able to be readily deployed in immediate response to natural disasters in the region. Recommendation 3: PRG member states should consider ways it can guarantee capabilities for PRG use in the high-risk season from Australia, New Zealand and France for much needed transport, including maritime and air assets. Recommendation 4: The Australian government should acknowledge that the PRG is not designed to address all of Australia’s domestic HADR demands so should consider other solutions to bolster its domestic disaster response. Recommendation 5: The Australian government should consider how a whole-of-government approach can actively coordinate across departmental initiatives so that the PRG, and other initiatives, can make the best contribution to regional environmental security concerns. Recommendation 6: SPDMM member states participating in the PRG should address the potential for the inclusion of police units or paramilitary from countries such as Solomon Islands and Vanuatu in the future. Recommendation 7: The PRG should think ahead and consider outlining a role for SPDMM observers such as Japan, the UK and the US in supporting the group without changing its core makeup. This could include financial support for transport, maintenance or infrastructure and supplies. Recommendation 8: Australia should be willing and ready to support the expansion the PRG mission as desired by its member states to address instability through a coordinated multilateral response, provided this is desired by other members of SPDMM. Recommendation 9: If there is an expansion of the mission to include stability operations, Australia should lead the way in the development of a multilateral security agreement that formalises the PRG’s approach to stability operations in any SPDMM member state. Recommendation 10: Together, PRG members should publicly push-back against any narratives that suggest this initiative is competition driven and remind other states that successful security initiatives inevitably lead to a reduced need for other external support. Australia should also be more transparent about its concerns with a greater Chinese security presence in the region. Recommendation 11: Australia should encourage some of the region’s key partners to support the PRG with supplies, funding and – if needed – additional vessels and aircraft for transport. Recommendation 12: If, in the future, the PRG is requested to support alongside Chinese security forces, Australia must combat potential narratives pushed by China of welcome cooperation and partnership between Australia as a PRG-member and China in the region that legitimise a Chinese security presence while respecting the sovereign decision making of recipient countries.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Armed Forces, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Australia and Asia-Pacific

431. When China knocks at the door of New Caledonia

Author:: Anne Marie Brady
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: China’s covert foreign interference activities in the Pacific are a very important, and yet under-researched, topic. This report uses New Caledonia as the case study to examine China’s hidden front, 隐蔽战线, throughout the wider Pacific. Successive months of violence and unrest in New Caledonia in 2024, have heightened regional and international awareness of the uncertain future of the territory, and the role of China in that future. The unrest erupted after France pushed through legislation extending voting rights in the territory. The CCP has engaged in a range of foreign interference activities in New Caledonia over many decades, targeting political and economic elites, and attempting to utilise the ethnic Chinese diaspora and PRC companies as tools of CCP interests. Local elites have at times actively courted China’s assistance, willingly working with CCP front organisations. Assessing the extent of China’s foreign interference in New Caledonia is a legitimate and necessary inquiry. The debate about China’s interests, intentions and activities in the territory has lacked concrete, publicly available evidence until now. This study aims to help fill that lacuna. The report draws on open-source data collection and analysis in Chinese, French and English. It was also informed by interviews and discussions that took place during my visits to New Caledonia and France in 2018, 2019, 2022 and 2023, as well as conversations in New Zealand. My research shows that the French Government and New Caledonian authorities are working to manage risks in the China – New Caledonia relationship. Moreover, civil society, the New Caledonian media, many politicians, and Kanak traditional leadership have also had a role in restraining the extent of the CCP’s foreign interference activities in New Caledonia. Few Pacific Island peoples would welcome a relationship of dependency with China or having the Pacific become part of a China-centred order. The report concludes by recommending that New Caledonia be included in all regional security discussions as an equal partner. New Caledonia needs to rebalance its economy and it needs help with the rebuild from the riots. Supportive partner states should work with France and New Caledonia to facilitate this.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, United Nations, Foreign Interference, Regional Security, Risk Assessment, and Political Unrest
Political Geography:: China, Europe, France, Australia, New Caledonia, and Indo-Pacific

432. Preemptive Moves: Analyzing How the United States is Strengthening its Position in West Africa

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Recent Western reports suggest that the United States has redirected military aid, originally intended for Niger, to Ghana, Benin, and Côte d'Ivoire. This shift in resource allocation comes in the wake of deteriorating relations between Washington and Niamey, culminating in the United States' withdrawal of its forces from Niger. These developments have sparked widespread speculation about whether these moves signal a new American strategy aimed at bolstering its military presence in West Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Natural Resources, Strategic Interests, and Military Aid
Political Geography:: Africa, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, United States of America, and Benin

433. Movement but Minimal Progress

Author:: June Teufel Dreyer
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Signs of a possible improvement in Sino-Japanese relations followed a meeting between newly elected Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathering in Peru on November, with the two exchanging vague promises of cooperation. Separately, China softened its position on various issues, saying that an unexpected obstruction had accidentally pushed its spy plane into Japanese airspace, allowing the resumption of imports of Nishikigoi tropical fish that had been suspended since November 2023 and reinstating visa-free entry that had been suspended in the wake of CovidCOVID. The government also indicated that it will gradually resume imports of Japanese seafood and remove a buoy in what Japan considers its exclusive economic zone, though neither has happened yet. Japanese skeptics pointed out that with no resolution on these and a number of other issues such as the detention of Japanese nationals on vaguely worded charges and sporadic violent attacks against Japanese children, it is premature to speak of Xi’s long-postponed state visit to Tokyo.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

434. China and the Two Koreas’ Triangular Games

Author:: See-Won Byun
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: A rebound in China-ROK diplomacy raised optimism after a slow start to 2024, paving the way for the summit between Xi Jinping and Yoon Suk Yeol on Nov. 15. They met on the sidelines of APEC Peru before attending the G20 summit in Brazil. Foreign Ministers Wang Yi and Cho Tae-yul met in Beijing on May 13, facilitating the China-ROK-Japan trilateral summit and Yoon’s meeting with Premier Li Qiang in Seoul. As China-DPRK exchanges dwindled compared to the first third of this year, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un’s summits with Putin in May and June raised questions about the direction of China’s Korea policy. Donald Trump’s reelection in November intensified debate on the regional security and economic implications of US-China competition.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Economic Competition, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

435. Increasing Perils Ahead

Author:: David J. Keegan and Kyle Churchman
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Lai Ching-te insisted at his May inauguration that Taiwan is sovereign and not subordinate to China. Beijing reacted by increasing cross-Strait tensions. China’s latest rounds of military exercises make clear that it is preparing to use force or at least gray-zone intimidation to effect reunification. Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang continued unofficial contacts with the Chinese Communist Party, seeking reconciliation but risking aiding China’s efforts to fragment Taiwan. Taiwan’s TSMC continues to expand in Taiwan and overseas in ways that keep it at the center of the global high-tech economy. Taiwan has increased its purchases of military equipment from the US and opened negotiations on a bilateral tax agreement. Beijing views US support for Taiwan as collaboration in Lai’s separatism. US President-elect Donald Trump has said that Taiwan stole the production of semiconductors from the US and should pay for US military support. However, this animus may be balanced by the outspoken Taiwan supporters he has chosen for his national security team. Can Taiwan overcome its internal divisions and Trump’s Taiwan skepticism? Can China, Taiwan, and the US step back from a confrontational spiral? None of this will be easy, but failure may put Taiwan’s future at risk.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Economy, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

436. Preparing for Realignment

Author:: Akhil Ramesh
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: In 2021, when President Biden took office, the US-India relationship was riding on the positive momentum created by successive US presidents since President George W Bush. Over the four years of the Biden administration, with few positive developments and several other tensions, the partnership was stress-tested across domains. For watchers of the US-India bilateral partnership, the Biden administration’s denouement vis-a-vis the partnership with India was disappointing and underwhelming. While several key supply chain diversification initiatives materialized, issues surrounding India’s position toward Russia—in the aftermath of the latter’s invasion of Ukraine—its alleged involvement in the killing of a Khalistan separatist and lastly Washington’s position on the interim government in Bangladesh highlighted the divergences between the two democracies. For the US-India partnership, President Biden’s term in office could be described as one that alienated an already allyship/treaty-averse India, pushing it further into groupings such as BRICS and other emerging non-Western multilateral institutions. The last eight months were no different. Nonetheless, domestic political developments in both India and the US could potentially set the stage for a recourse in the spiraling US-India bilateral partnership.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

437. The Worst Angels of Our Nature

Author:: Mason Richey and Rob York
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The last several reporting periods of Comparative Connections have featured little drama in US relations with the two Koreas. A lot of important changes happened—a burgeoning Washington-Seoul-Tokyo trilateral, Pyongyang’s advancing nuclear weapons program, etc.—but these developments were mostly incremental. However, the June-December 2024 reporting period—the final Comparative Connections—has featured bombshells, both metaphorically and literally. The most spectacular event was South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol going full rogue authoritarian and recklessly declaring martial law at 11pm on December 3 in order to carry out a military “self-coup d’état.” That is, Yoon annulled democratic processes and civil constitutional protections, arrogated all political and executive power to himself and the military, and attempted to suspend the national assembly. This shocking step toward tyranny—considered long-relegated to the distant past of South Korea’s developmental dictatorships of the 1950s-1980s—was as badly conceived as it was executed, farcically falling apart after less than three hours, when legislators (mostly from the opposition) breached the cordon of deployed soldiers around the national assembly, entered the plenary chamber, and voted 190-0 to revoke the martial law decree.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Domestic Politics, Coup, Donald Trump, and Trilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

438. Trump’s Return Scrambles Outlook

Author:: Sourabh Gupta
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: US-China relations through 2024 remained marked by a paradox. On the one hand, ties displayed a distinct stabilization. The two sides translated their leaders’ modest “San Francisco Vision” into reality. Cabinet officials and the numerous working groups met in earnest and produced outcomes, functional cooperation was deepened though differences emerged, sensitive issues were carefully managed, and effort was devoted to improving the relationship’s political optics. US electoral politics, or threat of Chinese interference in the elections, did not materially impinge on ties. On the other hand, the negative tendencies in US-China relations deepened. With its time in office winding down, the Biden administration went into regulatory overdrive to deepen the “selective decoupling” of the two countries’ advanced technology ecosystems. China methodically responded in kind using its now-robust economic lawfare toolkit. The chasm in strategic perceptions remained just as wide. Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office portends a period of disruptive unpredictability in ties, although “Tariff Man” Trump can reliably be expected to enact additional impositions on Chinese imports. Two years to the day that they met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia to place a floor under their troubled relationship and initiate a process of emplacing guardrails, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping met for their third in-person meeting as presidents in Lima, Peru, on the sidelines of the APEC Economic Leaders Meeting. In Lima, the two presidents took stock of the gradual rehabilitation of ties over the past two years, despite its early interruption by the balloon incident, and pledged to consolidate the fragile stability and make the relationship more predictable. They also patted themselves for harvesting some of the low-hanging fruit since their summit in Woodside, California, 12 months ago. US-China relations have made important incremental progress over the past 18 months, starting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing in June 2023 (Blinken returned to Beijing again this April). In Spring 2023, aside from meetings of their senior-most officials, there was practically no active communication channel between the two sides. Fast forward to today and there are more than 20 dialogue frameworks that span the range from diplomacy, security, economy, trade, fiscal affairs, finance and military to counternarcotics, law enforcement, agriculture, climate change, and people-to-people exchanges.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Deterrence, Donald Trump, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

439. Regional Overview: The Year of Elections (Finally) Ends

Author:: Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The “year of elections” culminated in the allegedly (but not actually) “too close to call” US presidential elections on Nov. 5, which resulted in Donald Trump’s scheduled return to the oval office on Jan. 20, 2025. Trump has wasted no time identifying his preferences for key leadership positions in his incoming administration, some surprising, some shocking, and a few somewhat disturbing (to us, at least), although most of his national security/foreign policy choices appear more mainstream. While we would not be bold (or foolish) enough to make firm predictions regarding future policy, we will speculate on expected trends and characteristics, while acknowledging at the onset that Trump prides himself on being unpredictable (and has largely succeeded in this quest). While elections elsewhere have gone largely as expected, two unexpected domestic political developments promise to impact US policy and regional stability; namely, the failed attempt by Republic of Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol to declare martial law which resulted in his impeachment, and the political turmoil in Japan that has left the Liberal Democratic Party for the first time in decades finding itself at the helm of a minority government. Elsewhere (and largely overlooked), the usual spate of multilateral meetings took place in the second half of the year—the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Meeting, the G20 gathering, the East Asia Summit and companion ministerial-level ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the BRICS Summit, etc. —amid enhanced military activity and enhanced trilateral/minilateral cooperation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

440. Spring 2024 edition of Contemporary Eurasia

Author:: Levon Hovsepyan
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contemporary Eurasia
Institution:: Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
Abstract:: CONTENTS SUREN TADEVOSYAN BALANCING POWERS: AZERBAIJAN’S NATIONAL ROLE CONCEPTIONS AMIDST REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CHALLENGES ………………………….. 6 TIANPING CHE JAPAN JOINS AUKUS: MOTIVATIONS, PROGRESS, AND IMPACT ..………. 22 KNARIK SARGSYAN BETWEEN BLOCS AND BLOCKADES: QATAR’S DIPLOMATIC DILEMMA AND STRATEGIC MANEUVERS ……………………………….……………….. 44 GUO SONG THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION'S ATTEMPT TO RECONVENE THE GENEVA MIDDLE EAST PEACE CONFERENCE ………………….…………... 64 BOOK REVIEW: ARTYOM TONOYAN AHMED ZAHID SHAHAB AND ALI AKBAR. (2023). IRAN’S SOFT POWER IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN ……………………………….………………. 84
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Role Conceptions, AUKUS, Regional Security, Alliance, GCC, Diplomacy, Security, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Caucasus, Eurasia, Japan, Asia, United States of America, Qatar, Gulf Nations, Middle East, Palestine, and Israel

441. Albania and EU CFSP: Strengthening Integration

Author:: Megi Fino and Álvaro Renedo Zalba
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Albania, an EU candidate country since 2014, is often described as already a member of Europe, only missing the ‘U’ of Union, owing not only to its geographic position, but also to its deep-rooted European sentiment. Albania’s foreign policy is, in no small degree, testimony to this. The article at hand examines Albania’s alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Specifically, it assesses the degree of Albania's alignment with EU CFSP and its implications for the country’s EU integration process, particularly in the context of the evolving geopolitical landscape. The analysis draws on Albania’s efforts regarding regional and international cooperation, international restrictive measures alignment, hybrid threats and Foreign Information Manipulation Interference (FIMI), and the latest 2024 European Commission Communication on EU enlargement policy. These efforts bear high significance for Albania’s EU integration process and underscore the increasing importance of CFSP alignment in the current geopolitical landscape. Albania’s case also offers critical insights into broader dynamics of EU enlargement and confirms that effective CFSP implementation is characterized by a varying degree of flexibility and autonomy.
Topic:: European Union, Enlargement, Foreign Policy, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Albania and Europe

442. Crisisen el Sahel: la Unión Europea en la encrucijada

Author:: Laura Gogny
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: This article breaks with the predominant liberal-idealist literature by analysing the European Union’s (EU) interventions in the Sahel through a realist approach. Thus, in this theorical framework we develop the concept and function of great power politics, analysing the role of the EU and its Member States on the international stage. Discerning how power relations work, and thus how the different actors relate to each other in terms of security, is the first step towards understanding the failure of European missions and regionalisation policy in the Sahel, as well as the end of Euro-Sahelian cooperation in the cases of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The main conclusion is the absence of a strategic role for the European organisation. As well as the interest of EU states in intervening in the Sahel in relation to the opportunity to increase their influence - especially in the case of France - and acting against security threats.
Topic:: Realism, European Union, Security, Great Powers, Foreign Policy, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Sahel and Europe

443. Examining the Value of a “Soft Power” Net Assessment: Comparing Chinese and U.S. Power Projection in Africa

Author:: Michael J. McNerney, Oluwatimilehin Sotubo, and Daniel Egel
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has entered an era in which it is no longer willing to be second fiddle to the United States. After many years of quietly growing China’s economy, following Deng Xiaoping’s guidance to “hide your strength and bide your time,”1 the CCP and President Xi Jinping are overseeing a plan for a more assertive China that uses its political and economic power to influence international relations. Underpinning China’s more assertive approach is a new concept that Xi has called zonghe guoli or “comprehensive national power.” This is a concept that seeks to describe “China’s combined military, economic, and technological power and foreign policy influence,”2 particularly as it compares to that of the United States and its allies.3 Xi’s conclusion, it seems, is that China’s zonghe guoli has grown such that China no longer needs to stand in America’s shadow. The United States is well-aware of the challenge posed by China. The 2022 National Security Strategy emphasized that China “is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it.”4 Given such high stakes, it should be no surprise that the U.S. government’s strategy argues for including “all elements of national power” in “out-competing China.”5 Competing effectively against China requires a nuanced understanding – a net assessment – of the relative strengths of China and the United States.6 There are now robust U.S.-China net assessments focused on military capabilities,7 key emergent technologies,8 defense industrial base,9 and overall national competitiveness.10 But how effective are the non-military components of U.S. efforts to project power abroad in comparison to those of China? Comparable analyses of America’s “soft power” vis-à-vis China are far more limited.11
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, National Security, Economy, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

444. China in South Asia

Author:: S. L. Narasimhan
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:: China and India both give great importance to their neighbours – the former through its Friendly Neighbourhood policy, the latter through Neighbourhood First. Although China has been increasing its influence in the region, narratives that say that India is losing out to China lack in-depth analysis. To deduce the future trajectory of China in South Asia, it is important to study both China’s and India’s relations with each of these countries, as also with each other.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, and India

445. A Strategy to Free Political Prisoners in China

Author:: Olivia Enos
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has placed hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Chinese citizens behind bars as political prisoners. The scale of this brutal practice reveals something about the CCP: there are few things it fears more than its people. Taking political prisoners is one of the CCP’s core tactics for maintaining power. The United States Department of State estimates that the CCP currently detains thousands of political prisoners, in addition to an estimated 1.8 million Uyghurs in political prison camps. The CCP’s practice of extrajudicial imprisonment is uniquely unjust. The party targets anyone it believes does not align with CCP ideals. That means political activists, human rights lawyers, and in particular, religious and ethnic populations that CCP leadership views as a threat to its core interests. Uyghurs, Hong Kongers, Tibetans, and Christians are among the most targeted. Although there have been notable successes in securing political prisoners’ release from China recently, there remains a need to strengthen the US political prisoner advocacy apparatus. Political prisoner advocacy may seem tangential to US foreign policy objectives. But it is one of the most practical steps the US government can take to offer relief to persecuted populations when Washington cannot easily fix the system that extrajudicially targets these populations, as is certainly the case in China. As it stands, the US executive branch does not have a centralized system focused on freeing political prisoners. Such a system could help the government craft policies that advance US interests while safeguarding and securing the freedom and human rights of the imprisoned. Of course, US efforts to free political prisoners are not limited to China. The US rightfully seeks to aid any person extrajudicially imprisoned globally. While the focus of this paper is on China, many of the recommendations in this paper are intended to advance US policy toward freeing political prisoners more generally. The next Trump administration should prioritize political prisoner advocacy in its overarching policy toward China. To that end: Congress should create an office for political prisoner advocacy within the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor at the Department of State and appoint a special envoy for political prisoner advocacy of ambassador rank who would be responsible for prioritizing political prisoner release. Congress and the executive branch should institute a standard process for coordinating political prisoner advocacy and release. The executive branch should evaluate tools to punish key nodes of the Chinese government responsible for persecuting political prisoners. The executive branch should refine its options for permanently resettling political prisoners who want to come to the US.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Political Prisoners, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

446. 2024 Elections and the Future of Global Climate Ambition

Author:: Kalina Gibson
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: As the 2024 elections usher in new leaders and reshuffle political power, the trajectory of climate ambition is at a crossroads, with the potential to accelerate toward meaningful progress or falter in the face of new obstacles.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

447. Turkish Foreign Policy in Libya: Geopolitical Interests and Fragile Peace

Author:: Buğra Süsler
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Libya’s troubled and divided political landscape, riddled with political uncertainty and the risk of violent escalation, renders the region one of the most volatile in the world and vulnerable to outside actors. Türkiye has been one of these actors, seeking influence through various interventions. Turkish Foreign Policy in Libya: Geopolitical Interests and Fragile Peace—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—demonstrates how Türkiye’s policy reflects geopolitical and domestic drivers, and provides insights into Türkiye’s role in Libya, contributing to the broader understanding of the political stalemate in the country.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Domestic Politics, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Sahel

448. A Break with the Past: The End of French Military Presence in Chad and Senegal

Author:: Nina Wilén
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the 28th of November, only a few hours after French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot’s visit to Chad, the Chadian Minister of Foreign Affairs announced the end of the defence accord with France in what was described as a “historical turn”. The announcement coincided with Chad’s Independence Day from the former colonial power. On the same day, the newly elected Senegalese President Faye declared the intention to close French military bases in the country. The date marked the 80th anniversary of a massacre on Senegalese soldiers committed by French forces. While the two declarations – independent of each other – came without any prior notifications, they did not constitute a surprise for observers. Indeed, they are to be seen as part of a broader trend of African states rejecting Western and multilateral security actors while publicly reaffirming their sovereignty. Yet, Chad’s and Senegal’s recent breaks with France differ from how their regional neighbours, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, handled their disengagements with the former colonial power after their respective military coups. The following analysis argues that to understand the recent disengagements it is necessary to both take the broader geopolitical context into account, which offers new opportunities for actors who want to shift partners, but also to look at internal and regional reasons for a more nuanced understanding of the events. Thus, while anti-French sentiments and the possibility of engaging with new security partners certainly set the context for the Chadian and Senegalese decisions, internal political reasons are equally relevant to comprehend the disengagements. This is also reflected in the way the decisions were communicated, which emphasized continued cooperation with France in other domains. That does not mean, however, that new security partners will not attempt to take advantage of the new situation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Military Intervention, and Security Partnerships
Political Geography:: Africa, France, Senegal, and Chad

449. Deciphering Erdoğan's Regional Paradigm Shifts

Author:: Ofra Bengio
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Professor Ofra Bengio analyses the trajectory of Turkish foreign and domestic policies by examining three paradigms in Erdogan's strategy since the early 2000s. In addition, we offer our sincere condolences to the victims of the earthquake last week.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, Arab Spring, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, and Middle East

450. Less is More: A New Strategy for US Security Assistance to Africa

Author:: Elizabeth Shackelford, Ethan Kessler, and Emma Sanderson
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The US strategy toward Africa today is neither effective nor sustainable. It’s time to flip the script. US policy in Africa has for too long prioritized short-term security to the detriment of long-term stability by prioritizing the provision of military and security assistance. This is done in hopes that partner countries will use this capacity to suppress radical groups at home and reduce the likelihood that they will spread disorder in the region or create threats to US interests at home and abroad. Yet, this strategy has neither produced security in Africa nor reduced threats to the United States and its interests. Washington should rein in its use of security assistance with partners that fail to demonstrate commitment to the reforms necessary to build long-term stability. Partnerships and military assistance with illiberal, undemocratic countries have delivered little, if any, sustainable security improvements, and in many cases have prompted further instability and violence by building the capacity of abusive security forces. They have also provided harmful associations between the US government and the abuses committed by those we arm and assist. Since terrorism in Africa poses a low threat to US national security interests, there is no justification for focusing on short-term security issues at the cost of good governance, rule of law, and other factors that contribute to long-term stability. The costs of doing so are increasingly being recognized, with Congress today more likely to apply existing legal provisions to end security cooperation with abusive regimes. But these interventions typically come too late and are too inconsistent to influence behavior of illiberal regimes. A more systemic approach is needed to break the pattern of poor outcomes. The rise of great-power competition exacerbates the risk that the US national security establishment will double down on its security cooperation strategy in the region out of concern that doing otherwise would leave a vacuum that America’s competitors might fill. In reality, however, the argument for being more selective in distributing security assistance is even stronger with the return of great-power competition, as values and reputation become increasingly important in attracting support for the United States over other great powers. Security and military assistance will continue to play a role in the region. However, the United States would be better off being more deliberate and cautious, only pursuing it after completing a holistic assessment of the potential impact of such assistance on governance, human rights, and broader stability. Security assistance can and must be more closely scrutinized with enhanced US government oversight tools to ensure it does not undermine governance and stability, and Washington should be more willing to choose different tools when shaping relationships with weak partners, to condition assistance to ensure it does not facilitate bad outcomes, and to cut it off when partner countries use it to abuse civilians.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Strategic Competition, and Military Aid
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS