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352. The ramifications of the surge in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah
- Author:
- Gerald Feierstein, Eran Etzion, and Charles Lister
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- MEI experts discuss the risks of a full-blown war following the latest rounds of escalation, the political and strategic calculations inside Israel and by Hezbollah, as well as the additional steps the United States can take to help avert a broader conflict. The briefing features Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feierstein, Distinguished Senior Fellow on U.S. Diplomacy at the Middle East Institute (MEI); Eran Etzion, Former Head of Policy Planning for the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a Non-Resident Scholar at MEI; as well as Charles Lister, Director MEI's Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism Programs.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon
353. Black sea security: Romania’s military modernization and Armenia’s foreign policy reorientation
- Author:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has pushed the Black Sea region to the forefront of international attention and forced regional countries to overhaul their own security calculations. The countries of the extended Black Sea region are now undergoing some of the most profound shifts in their foreign, security, and defense policies in decades, with Romania and Armenia at the forefront of this phenomenon. Notably, the government of Romania, the United States’ staunchest regional ally, has increased its defense spending, pushed ahead with major defense acquisitions from the US, and is building out its strategic partnership with Washington; at the same time, it is looking to strengthen its domestic military industry while also expanding its security cooperation with neighboring Ukraine, Moldova, and Bulgaria. In Armenia, a long-time ally of Russia, the government is orchestrating the country’s foreign policy reorientation toward the West. But to achieve this, Yerevan must first overcome its deeply ingrained strategic dependencies on Russia and decades of regional isolation, both of which represent among the most significant challenges Yerevan has faced since independence. This panel discussion brings together two of this year’s Black Sea Program Title VIII research fellows to present their findings on the strategic challenges and opportunities facing Armenia and Romania in the context of Russia’s war of aggression. The fellowships are granted by the US State Department for the Middle East Institute’s Black Sea Program.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Armenia and Romania
354. Rethinking Democracy ep. 4: China's growing presence in the Middle East with Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman
- Author:
- F. Gregory Gause, Jon B. Alterman, and Gonul Tol
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- About the series: This is a critical year for the future of democracy. Half the world’s population will go to the polls in 2024, at a time when citizens in America and across the globe are losing faith in democratic institutions. We often view the rollback of democracy and threats to the liberal international order as separate problems, but in reality they are closely interlinked. Through a new limited podcast series, MEI’s Gonul Tol seeks to examine the interplay between democracy’s domestic and international foes as well as how to counter them. In this episode: China has made significant inroads in the Middle East through diplomacy, trade, investment, and infrastructure projects. Beijing advertises the benefits of its authoritarian development model and presents itself as a responsible alternative to the United States. What does this mean for MENA autocracies? Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman join Gonul Tol to discuss China’s growing presence in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and Asia
355. How might the second Trump administration navigate the Middle East?
- Author:
- Ryan Crocker and Gerald Feierstein
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s return to the presidency comes at a tumultuous time in the Middle East. While on the campaign trail, Trump vowed to offer strong support for Israel and insisted he can bring peace to the region. What challenges and opportunities will he face on both fronts? And how different is the strategic landscape of today’s Middle East compared to when he left the White House? This on-the-record briefing will feature Amb. (ret.) Ryan Crocker, career diplomat with the US Foreign Service. His previous appointments included US Ambassador to Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Kuwait, Afghanistan, and Lebanon. The briefing will also feature Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feierstein, former US Ambassador to Yemen and Distinguished Senior Fellow on US Diplomacy at MEI. Our experts will discuss what the incoming second Trump administration will mean for the Middle East; the current conflicts in the region; the future of US-Iran relations; and the prospects of securing more normalization agreements between Israel and its neighbors. Speakers Amb. (ret.) Ryan Crocker Fmr. US Ambassador to Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Kuwait, Afghanistan, and Lebanon Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feierstein Fmr. US Ambassador to YemenDistinguished Senior Fellow on US Diplomacy, MEI
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
356. How might US-Israeli relations evolve under the Trump administration?
- Author:
- Nimrod Goren and Ilai Saltzman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- MEI Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs Nimrod Goren and Associate Research Professor Ilai Saltzman discuss potential shifts in US policy, the outlook for Israeli politics in 2025, and the challenges to advancing peace on the Israeli-Palestinian front. Tune in for expert insights on what lies ahead.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
357. Virtual Briefing Series | End of an era: the fall of the Assad regime
- Author:
- Ryan Crocker and Charles Lister
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Following more than a year of turmoil and transformative changes reshaping the Middle East, the region witnessed another shock with the downfall of the Assad family’s 54-year rule over Syria last weekend. The rapid collapse was triggered by a lightning rebel offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former affiliate of al-Qaeda. This on-the-record briefing featured Amb. (ret.) Ryan Crocker, career diplomat with the US Foreign Service. His previous appointments included US Ambassador to Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Kuwait, Afghanistan, and Lebanon; as well as Charles Lister, Senior Fellow and Director of MEI’s Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs. Our experts discussed what the fall of Bashar al-Assad means for Syria and the region, the international community’s assessment of the Syrian conflict, what this development portends for Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” in the Levant, the influence of regional powers in Syria, and the future of US policy toward the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
358. Theorising the Hedging Strategy: National Interests, Objectives, and Mixed Foreign Policy Instruments
- Author:
- Iván Gonzalez-Pujol
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Hedging is a comprehensive foreign policy strategy that mixes competitive and cooperative approaches and is used to manage competing national interests during conditions of uncertainty over the future distribution of power. However, the literature is characterised by a lack of consensus on the central features of hedging, which leads to contradictions in how the concept of hedging is applied. First, this paper assesses the definition of hedging, identifies three rival approaches, and links the risks and opportunities of hedging with uncertainty over the future international distribution of power. Second, it discusses how the various interpretations of hedging have inspired different analytical models. Finally, it explains hedging as a theoretically intermediate and analytically mixed strategy. These claims are supported by studying the Asia-Pacific region, where hedging has become the dominant strategy for coping with the uncertainty surrounding the future distribution of power stemming from the rise of China.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, Hedging, Uncertainty, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia-Pacific
359. Examining Relationships Among Turkey, Israel, and the United States in Terms of Interest Similarity
- Author:
- Zuhal Çalık Topuz and Jonathan Michael Spector
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Interest similarity is defined as the affinity of national interests in global affairs. This research aims to examine the interest similarity among Turkey, Israel, and the US. Interest similarity of countries has been examined by taking into account the factors of (a) alliance portfolio, (b) MID data, and (c) UNGA voting records. Quantitative data regarding these factors have been analyzed with correlation and regression models. The findings show that the interest similarities among these three countries have a statistically significant correlation. This research also examines the relationships between the three states to better understand which factors affect their interest similarity, and how. Thus, this study contributes to the political science and international relations literature by analyzing quantitative data while examining the interest similarity among Turkey, Israel, and the US.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Affairs, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America
360. How the EU can – and should – enhance its security and global competitiveness
- Author:
- Stefania Benaglia, Steven Blockmans, Michael Emerson, Tinatin Akhvlediani, Ceren Ergenc, and Fanny Sauvignon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- To achieve the objectives of security and competitiveness the EU will absolutely need to prioritise its enlargement policy, defence strategy and global partnerships over the coming years to 2030 and beyond. To make the EU fit for 30+ members, it will have to start by reforming its enlargement methodology towards a ‘staged accession’ procedure and move towards more qualified majority voting, alongside adapting its budget to accommodate new members. Accession negotiations will need to have ironclad security commitments and the EU should assist candidates in shoring up their own defences, as well as beefing up its own Member States’ military capacities. The EU also has no choice but to become a security provider for the entire continent. To strengthen its overall global competitiveness, the EU should boost Europe’s defence industry, ramp up the production of much-needed capabilities, tackle procurement issues and harmonise technical and operational standards. Collaboration with regional partners through the Global Gateway is also important but the EU shouldn’t position itself as an exclusive alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. It must also actively engage all parties in the Middle East peace process to counterbalance China’s influence and (re)assert itself as a key regional player. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) will test the EU’s ability to maintain its global relevance and uphold its values.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, Competition, and Enlargement
- Political Geography:
- Europe
361. The Berlin Pulse 2024/2025 (full issue)
- Author:
- Hanno Pevkur, Stephanie Zonszein, Majed Al-Ansari, Halyna Yanchenko, and Boris Pistorius
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Körber-Stiftung
- Abstract:
- Welcome to the eight’s edition of The Berlin Pulse! As every year, we compare international expectations of Germany with public opinion in Germany. But this year’s edition is special, as it comes off the press with one part of our representative survey conducted right after the polls have closed in the United States and the German coalition collapsed. Thanks to our editors Julia Ganter and Jonathan Lehrer, this issue underlines that Germany must decide what image it wants to project and what international expectations it wants to meet. Bangladeshi analyst Shafqat Munir and Russian opposition politician Andrei Pivovarov want Germany to live up to its moral aspirations and support the revival of democratic values in their countries. Israeli journalist Mairav Zonszein argues that precisely Germany’s reputation as a defender of democratic norms complicates its arms support to Israel, calling on Berlin to ensure its weapons are not used in human rights violations. Meanwhile, Ukrainian politican Halyna Yanchenko urges Germany to supply more arms to help end Russia’s illegal war of aggression. These expectations illustrate that Germany’s international standing as a partner in upholding international law, human rights and democracy is currently at stake. Berlin faces a complex balancing act, striving to avoid perceptions of selectively applying international law. Estonia’s Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur argues that half-hearted actions will not suffice – or as he puts it, ʻDo we want Ukraine to survive, or do we want it to win?ʼ The German population has a strong opinion on many of these issues. While 57 per cent of German respondents still want Berlin to support Ukraine militarily only 25 per cent want military support for Israel. Despite these dilemmas, it is encouraging that 46 per cent of German respondents want their country to be more engaged on international crises. It is the highest level since we started surveying this in 2017 and it shows that, after three years of war in Ukraine and a year of war in the Middle East, Germans want change and want to see Germany driving change. Thanks to our partner, the Pew Research Center, we know that Germans and Americans have trusted each other to make a change in international politics over the past four years. But our new figures, conducted after the US election, show that this partnership may be threatened: 79 per cent of Germans think President Donald Trump will damage transatlantic relations. But only 35 per cent of Germans think that Germany should step in to lead the West. It is time to decide, Germany. What kind of international player do we want to be, in which areas do we want to go all in? The following pages can help us make difficult decisions in difficult times.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Taliban, Polls, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, India, Germany, and United States of America
362. Man on a Wire: A Way Forward for Iran’s New President
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Islamic Republic’s ninth president assumes office with an unenviable inheritance of domestic discontent, regional turmoil and poor relations with the West. He should work to bridge the state-society gap, while outside powers should test his administration’s willingness to shift from an escalatory posture.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Leadership, Domestic Politics, Presidency, and Masoud Pezeshkian
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
363. Informe África 2024: El pacto migratorio y de asilo europeo
- Author:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- A las puertas de las las decisivas elecciones decisivas al Parlamento Europeo de junio de 2024, Europa mira hoy con miedo a la inmigración. La cuestión de la inmigración (más de 286.000 llegadas irregulares a Europa en 2023 según la OIM) se ha convertido en un asunto central para la política europea: en un instrumento para ganar o perder elecciones. El ascenso de partidos de ultraderecha o de corte nacional-populista en importantes países receptores de migrantes mayoritariamente de origen africano, como Italia (caso Lampedusa: 153.000 llegadas en 2023) o España (Canarias: 40.000), se debe en parte a una hábil explotación del miedo a este fenómeno. Gobiernos, administraciones, o medios de comunicación han ido construyendo discursos de una “Europa fortaleza” frente a África, que tienen éxito entre amplios sectores sociales, en especial las clases medias y trabajadoras de los países europeos, a pesar de que, según Naciones Unidas, solo alrededor de una cuarta parte de los africanos que emigran lo hacen a suelo europeo.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Asylum
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
364. Informe Iberoamérica 2024: El desafío de la seguridad para las democracias latinoamericanas
- Author:
- Lucía Dammert, Thiago Rodrigues, Dorly Castañeda, Erika Rodríguez Pinzón, and Matías Mongan Marcó
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- Las crisis de inseguridad que vive América Latina se ha convertido en una amenaza real para nuestras democracias. La inseguridad ciudadana, exacerbada por el crimen organizado, el avance del narcotráfico y la violencia endémica no solo destruye vidas humanas y bienestar, sino que también erosiona la confianza en el Estado y sus instituciones. La impunidad, la corrupción y la ineficacia en la administración de la justicia crean un círculo vicioso que debilita las bases mismas de la democracia y de nuestro contrato social. Nuestro Informe Iberoamérica 2024 hace un repaso de varios asuntos centrales relativos a la actual crisis de seguridad ciudadana, incluyendo las transformaciones en el aparato policial, la economía política del narcotráfico, o el crecimiento del ciberdelito, y casos concretos como Ecuador o la frontera entre Colombia y Venezuela. España y Europa no son ajenas a este fenómeno y han empezado a tender puentes con la región para cooperar en múltiples aspectos. Con las próximas Cumbres Iberoamericana y UE-CELAC en el horizonte, invitamos a responsables políticos, expertos y agentes sociales a debatir y buscar soluciones conjuntas para Iberoamérica sobre este asunto fundamental.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Corruption, Democracy, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
365. Autonomía estratégica abierta europea y ciclo electoral: Opciones frente a EEUU y China
- Author:
- Raquel Carretero, Lisa Garcia Bedolla, Vicente Palacio, Agueda Parra, and Ana Olmedo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- La UE debe contar con capacidades propias que le permitan reducir sus dependencias frente a EEUU y China. Pero Europa afronta dificultades e incertidumbres derivadas de factores políticos y económicos internos a Europa y EEUU. Dos grandes procesos electorales en 2024 (elecciones al Parlamento Europeo el 6-9 de junio, y elecciones presidenciales en EEUU el 5 noviembre) tendrán importantes implicaciones para la llamada “autonomía estratégica europea abierta”. Teniendo cuenta este contexto político, este documento aborda varios aspectos. Primero, las dinámicas de continuidad y de cambio del nuevo ciclo político. Segundo, las tendencias actuales de las relaciones UE-EEUU en tres ámbitos principales: tecnológico-digital; política energética y nueva política industrial del Pacto Verde; y defensa y seguridad. Tercero, la necesidad de la UE de resetear y fortalecer las relaciones económicas con Beijing. Cuarto, las posibles opciones de la UE y escenarios respecto a EEUU y China. Finalmente, algunas propuestas para avanzar en la dirección de una relación estratégica más equilibrada y “abierta” respecto a EEUU, China, y el Sur Global.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Economy, and Strategic Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe
366. The State of the European Union 2024: Integration vs. Nationalism
- Author:
- Diego López Garrido
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- In the new institutional cycle, the European Union is facing unprecedented challenges. This report studies and analyses some of the most outstanding aspects such as competitiveness and reindustrialisation in the light of competition from the USA and China; the transition to a decarbonised Europe; the need to defensively strengthen the Union and its foreign action; the migratory issue; the European social pillar or the rule of law. All this comes within a complex geopolitical context that helps to approach structural reforms to renewed institutions such as the European Parliament and the European Commission, where more conservative positions have thrived.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Industrialization, Economic Competition, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe
367. The Gaza War and Europe: Can the Continent Play a Positive Role in The Middle East?
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Europe borders the Middle East, and the continent cannot insulate itself from events in this region. Its options, however, are limited: Europe is hardly a strategic actor with the political will and requisite capabilities to intervene. Moreover, the Middle East is not easily amenable to foreign intervention. Nevertheless, Europe cannot ignore developments that impact its national security and if it concentrates its efforts, it may have a modest input in ensuring that pro-stability forces gain the upper hand.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Humanitarian Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
368. Iranian Subversive Efforts in Jordan: A Strategic Threat Requiring a Robust Response
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Against the background of Hamas' ongoing war with Israel (and the expressions of support for it among Palestinians and Islamists in Jordan), the Iranian regime has intensified its efforts to subvert the Hashemite monarchy. The arrests in March 2024 of Iranian agents involved in smuggling arms to Muslim Brotherhood elements in Jordan are part of a campaign to counter the role of Tehran in bringing both drugs and weapons over the Syrian and Iraqi borders into Jordan. Tensions rose further over Jordan's supportive role in foiling the Iranian attack on Israel on 14 April 2024. For the Iranian regime, the destabilization of Jordan is a vital precursor for the strategic goal of turning Judea and Samaria into "another Gaza", as Supreme Leader 'Ali Khamenei suggested back in 2014: hence the importance of American and Israeli support for Jordan. The stability of the Kingdom (and thus the need to reduce economic and social strains) is a vital interest of both Israel and the West.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islamism, Muslim Brotherhood, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Jordan
369. Italy’s Migration Policies Amidst Climate Change: An Assessment
- Author:
- Chiara Scissa
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Since the 1990s, Italy has progressively become a country of destination for migration movements especially from Africa and South Asia. In 2022, Italy received a total of 84,289 claims for international protection. The main nationalities of origin were Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt, Tunisia and Nigeria.[1] The causes of migration are multiple and complex, and could refer to political, economic, social and/or cultural grounds. Yet, and not without hurdles, another relevant factor that contributes to driving people to move to a different country has started to emerge: climate change (and its related impacts on disasters, environmental degradation and other environmental factors). Although the nexus between climate change and migration is complex to define and to identify, it is relevant to note that many protection-seekers in Italy come from countries most exposed to climate change that, in certain cases, may have played a role either in directly shaping migration movements or in exacerbating more proximate causes of migration, such as worsening conflicts over scarce resources, violence, poverty or discrimination dynamics in the aftermath of a disaster.[2] Against this backdrop, in the following, I will first examine how the climate change-migration nexus has been approached by the Italian legal system, to then move to the Meloni government’s political strategy in the field of migration governance, followed by an assessment of their respective efficacy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Italy
370. The Tragedy behind Israel’s Ostensible Triumph
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The killing by Israel of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the Islamist Shia militia that controls South Lebanon, may well go down in history as the harbinger of a seismic change in the balance of power in the Levant and arguably the whole Middle East. Iran’s ensuing retaliatory missile strike makes war with Israel all but inevitable, though its magnitude remains uncertain. Part of it will be fought with missiles, rockets and drones flying across the sky between the two arch-enemies. Part of it will be fought across the region, possibly wherever Iran’s axis of resistance – the network of pro-Iran armed groups spanning Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Yemen is based. Most of it will likely be fought in Lebanon, home to Hezbollah, whose demise – or even severe weakening – would result in Iran’s influence in the Levant being curtailed. While Israel’s onslaught on Hezbollah has tilted the balance of power heavily in its favour, it is too early to make predictions – after all, the Middle East has disrupted expectations time and time again in the past. It is still possible though to make some considerations and discuss a few open questions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Proxy Groups, and Hassan Nasrallah
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and United States of America
371. The Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Regime: A Strategic Blow to Russia
- Author:
- Nona Mikhelidze
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, one that Middle East experts will undoubtedly scrutinise for its broader implications. Yet, for those studying Russia, the situation holds a clear message: the downfall of Syria’s dictator is a strategic blow for Moscow.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, and Syria
372. China’s security relations with Africa in the 21st century
- Author:
- Monika Magdalena Krukowska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The paper examines China’s increasing security interests in Africa. It seeks to understand the nature and scope of Chinese engagement in peace and security issues on the continent based on its engagement in international and domestic (African) politics. Through literature analysis and logical reasoning, the author intends to define the implications of China’s new role as a security provider. The paper is based on desk research using primary and secondary data and statistical and comparative analysis of official documents, academic research, and media sources. The methods include literature analysis, logical reasoning, statistical research, comparative analysis, and the inductive method to build general theorems. The paper analyses aspects of China’s security engagement on the African continent: its participation in the United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, small arms exports, and Beijing’s sharing of technology with African partners. China’s engagement in Africa’s security helps to advance its vital economic and political interests, with limited impact on African security. Key lessons for African partners are offered. The last decades have seen an extraordinary increase in China’s economic and political ties with Africa. Security cooperation followed massive Chinese investments and thousands of Chinese nationals working on the continent. China’s security engagement in Africa protects Beijing’s interests regarding access to resources, markets, political influence, and social credibility. It has little to do with a benevolent will to help Africa deal with instability or economic underdevelopment. African partners must make necessary efforts to avoid further dependence on China.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Security, Peacekeeping, Cybersecurity, and Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and Asia
373. Kosovo in Russian Foreign Policy- Discourse Fostering Instability in Kosovo and Countering Euro-Atlantic Integration
- Author:
- Ramadan Ilazi, Ardit Orana, and Jeta Loshaj
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- Russian influence and interests in the Western Balkans are primarily centered around Serbia. According to a 2024 survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI), for Kosovar citizens, after Serbia (83%), Russia (8%) is seen as the main threat to the country, while 87% say that the country’s foreign policy should only be pro-European Union and pro-West, and 59% say that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is completely unjustified. Main takeaways from this paper include: Russia deploys state-controlled media (RT, Sputnik) and partners with Iranian outlets to spread narratives portraying Kosovo as a failed state, full of instability. Russia capitalizes on deep cultural, religious, and political ties with Serbia to maintain influence in the Balkans, utilizing ties with the the Serbian Orthodox Church and with Serbian elites to the detriment of Kosovo. There are indications that Russia had prior knowledge of or involvement in the Banjska terrorist attack in Kosovo, aimed at escalating tensions. By stirring instability in Kosovo, Russia aims to divert Western attention and resources away from Ukraine, creating a multi-front challenge for NATO and the EU.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Strategic Interests, Instability, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Serbia, and Western Balkans
374. How external actors seek to influence the Western Balkans?
- Author:
- Harun Nuhanović
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- The Western Balkans, a region with a complex history and significant geopolitical value, finds itself at the crossroads of influence from major external powers—Russia, China, and Turkey. Each of these countries extends its reach through various domains such as economics, culture, religion, politics, and security, exploiting both state and non-state mechanisms to cement their influence. This report delves into the strategies employed by these state actors, highlighting their individual and collective impacts on the strategic landscape of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro. The findings reveal how these external influences pose both opportunities and significant risks, shaping the regional dynamics and the future integration of these states into larger international frameworks such as the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, Kosovo, and Western Balkans
375. Surviving the War: Russia-Western Balkan Ties After the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Maksim Samorukov
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 pushed Europe into a new era of instability. The fundamentals of the continent’s political and economic order are shifting as Russia’s brutal methods of war undermine the prospects of the slightest cooperation between Moscow and European states. Decades-old trade links have been severed, transport corridors rerouted, and people-to-people contacts have become more scarce than ever. Europe is reshaping its security architecture around Russia as the main threat, while Moscow frames its aggression against Ukraine as an existential defensive war with a duplicitous West. The only European region that stands out in this process of growing mutual alienation is the Western Balkans. More than a year into the war, Russia’s relations with several Balkan states appear to have undergone little change. Serbia is eagerly continuing with energy deals with Gazprom, Bosnian Serb leaders frequent Moscow on official visits, and some leading Montenegrin parties are sticking to pro-Russian slogans. It would appear that time stands still in the Western Balkans, with petty local grievances overriding major global developments This publication was produced with the support of the Open Society Foundations (OSF). Responsibility for the content of this publication belongs solely to Belgrade Centre for Security Policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Trade, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Balkans
376. A Feminist Foreign Policy in Practice: Introducing an Institutional Framework for Implementation in the Post-Yugoslav Sphere
- Author:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Abstract:
- In the past few years, a growing number of policy- and decision-makers seem to have heeded the tireless efforts of gender advocates: there is a strong interest in feminist perspectives and gender equality efforts, at least rhetorically. In their 2021 coalition agreement, the German government announced that they wanted “to strengthen rights, resources and representation of women and girls globally and support social diversity” […] “in line with a feminist foreign policy” (Bundesregierung 2021), picking up on a model of Feminist Foreign Policy (FFP) first introduced by the Swedish government in 2014. On International Women’s Day in 2023, Slovenia also rhetorically committed to FFP, being one of the most recent countries to announce a feminist approach to foreign policy and the first in Central-Eastern or Southeast Europe. While feminist foreign policies are mushrooming across the globe, strong anti-feminist alliances and anti-gender discourses are simultaneously re-gaining meaningful influence and mainstream appeal with palpable legal consequences, for example, through restricting reproductive rights for women.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Feminism, and Gender Equality
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
377. How to Unbind the State Capture in Serbia? Towards Security Institutions and Foreign Policy in the Service of Citizens
- Author:
- Jelena Pejic Nikic and Predrag Petrovic
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Abstract:
- There are many findings of domestic and foreign research organisations that unequivocally indicate that Serbia is a captured state, with a hybrid political regime. Security institutions play a major role in the capture of the state and the collapse of democracy in Serbia, as well as in preserving the situation the way it is. The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) was one the first organisations in Serbia to notice this negative trend; consequently, in 2019 and 2020, we investigated and documented in detail the role of the security intelligence services, the police, the army and private security companies in capturing the state, as well as the impotence of oversight and control bodies. In the research that followed in 2021, we established that the government of the Serbian Progressive Party, led by Aleksandar Vučić, had completed the capture of the state and that today’s security institutions are operating with the aim of preserving such a state of affairs. We also researched the foreign policy aspects of this negative process. Public opinion surveys conducted by BCSP have also established that the majority of the citizens are aware that Serbia is a captured state, i.e. that politicians, organised into interest groups, use state institutions together with financially powerful actors to further strengthen their political and financial power, all to the great detriment of citizens. Since state institutions are deeply captured and the citizens are aware of that fact, we have decided not to further document this process; in this study, we rather tried to determine how to organise the security institutions and strengthen their external overseers so that the security sector can no longer be easy prey for those who are politically and financially powerful. In other words, we wanted to determine how to ensure that security institutions work in the interest of citizens, precisely as the Constitution of Serbia requires. The starting point of this endeavour were the findings of the above mentioned BCSP research, in which we identified the “gray areas” and “veto points” within the security sector, that is, legal and institutional solutions that made it possible to capture these institutions quite easily. We verified the solutions for the reorganisation of these gray areas against the opinions of our interlocutors, former and current employees of the security institutions and the judiciary, diplomats, journalists, attorneys, politicians and representatives of civil society. We verified the solutions for the reorganisation of these gray areas against the opinions of our interlocutors, former and current employees of the security institutions and the judiciary, diplomats, journalists, attorneys, politicians and representatives of civil society. The interviews helped us to confirm, but also to refute our assumptions.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Institutions, and State Capture
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Serbia
378. Buckles and Holes in China’s Belt and Road – A Case Study of Belarus and Serbia
- Author:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Abstract:
- The international system is undergoing profound changes and one of the main ones is the growth of China’s global influence, which is gradually turning into a source of influence comparable to the United States. This process is accompanied by the growth of China’s political and economic presence in different regions of the world. Europe is no exception, but this process varies greatly in different countries, with some countries only cautiously developing ties with China while others seek to expand them as much as possible. This raises the question of the reasons for such differences, as well as the consequences of active development of China’s ties for political and economic development. In this regard, it seems interesting to compare the most “pro-Chinese” countries in Europe, namely Belarus, which has the closest contacts with China among countries of Eastern Europe and Serbia, and occupies a similar position in the Balkans. The analysis shows that for both countries, China is, first of all, a political and economic alternative to the EU and the US, and in the case of Belarus, also to Russia. Such cooperation expands the space for manoeuvre, but usually does not lead to the solution of the strategic goals – advanced economic development, political resilience, sustainable cooperation with the main (crucial) partners.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and International System
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
379. The Wagner Group, Russia’s Foreign Policy and Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Kemal Mohamedou
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Set up in 2014 as a private organisation, the Wagner Group has conducted numerous military activities internationally that remain shrouded in mystery. Through documented investigations, it emerges that the group is less akin to a traditional private military contractor and more a tool in Russian president Vladimir Putin’s military arsenal. Through its deployment in the Central African Republic and Mali, the group has gained an important foothold in sub-Saharan Africa and has furthered Russian foreign policy aims in the region, enabling Moscow to advance three key aims: (1) achieving recognition for Russia as a great power through global geopolitical repositioning; (2) undermining Western interests by building a Russian sphere of influence; and (3) enhancing Russian soft power. The historical anti-imperial Soviet advances in the post-colonial era had facilitated present-day Russian endeavours in Africa, providing a narrative for the Russian state’s foreign policy goals. While the Wagner Group has employed various political strategies to exert soft-power influence, it has also resorted to a coercive approach to suppress anti-government and anti-Russian activity. Russian advisors have developed repressive tactics, instrumentalising local state institutions and national armed forces to threaten opponents. The Wagner Group’s activities in sub-Saharan Africa have demonstrated a concerted effort to enhance Russia’s influence in the region and secure the country’s strategic interests. While Russia is not the sole external actor in Africa, the current political orientation adopted by the Kremlin towards sub-Saharan Africa can ultimately be read as a move to fragment and unsettle Western presence across the continent. In this context, the merging of paramilitary and non-military actions in Africa is of particular relevance, allowing Russia to project power, exert influence and – crucially – unsettle local state-building projects.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Wagner Group, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
380. Argentina's President Milei Aims for Economy "Shock Therapy"
- Author:
- Bartłomiej Znojek
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Dealing with the deepening economic crisis is the top priority for the government of ultraliberal President Javier Milei, who took over in Argentina on 10 December 2023. The scale of the challenge and the lack of a parliamentary majority will complicate the implementation of his plans, which include the dollarisation of the economy and the elimination of the central bank. In foreign policy, Milei promises to prioritise relations with the U.S. and Israel, among other goals. Although he cancelled the previous government’s decision to join BRICS, it is doubtful whether he will limit relations with key partners such as China.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economy, BRICS, Economic Crisis, and Javier Milei
- Political Geography:
- Argentina
381. Human Rights, but with CPC Characteristics, Rising in China's Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For China, human rights in relation to a sovereignty is gaining importance in its cooperation with countries of the Global South. The Chinese authorities emphasise the right of governments to make their own decisions in this area, which is welcomed by many of these, mainly authoritarian, states. For the EU, it is important both to counter the Chinese narrative on such disparities in human rights standards and to apply sanctions against China in cases of violations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Sovereignty, Sanctions, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Global South
382. Fall 2024 edition of Strategic Visions
- Author:
- Alan McPherson, Grace Anne Parker, Sophía Valdes, Aaron Gell, Nikolas Gvosdev, Andrew Santora, and Jake Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Strategic Visions
- Institution:
- Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
- Abstract:
- This issue of Strategic Visions, Volume 24, Issue 1 (Fall 2024), features the usual "News from the Director" and "Note from the Davis Fellow" sections, in which we reflect on this past semester’s colloquium series. Additionally, we are excited to share interviews with Aaron Gell, a journalist for The New Republic, who discusses campus protests related to Gaza, and Dr. Nikolas Gvosdev, Professor of Naval Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, who provides insights into foreign policy in President-Elect Trump’s second term. Sofía Valdes wrote a piece about her research which won her the 2024 Edwin H. Sherman Prize last semester. Two of our graduate students, Andrew Santora and Jake Wolff, have contributed pieces detailing their archival research, which has been supported in part by CENFAD. Additionally, PhD candidate Audrey Rankin offers a review of Kathleen Murphy's Captivity's Collections: Science, Natural History, and the British Transatlantic Slave Trade (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2023).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Protests, Higher Education, Donald Trump, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
383. The Sahel intervention as a case study of France’s security policy in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Pavlos Petidis
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The analysis traces France’s shift from a unilateral approach, exemplified by the Françafrique policy, to a more multilateral and regionally integrated strategy in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region. The Rwandan genocide in 1994 marked a pivotal moment for French policy, prompting a transition towards greater emphasis on multilateralism and regional security initiatives, influenced by lessons learned from past interventions. France’s engagement in the Sahel has been guided by the principle of “African solutions to African problems,” as evidenced by efforts to support regional initiatives and collaborate with African-led peacekeeping missions. Despite efforts to engage the European Union in Sahelian security issues, France has encountered challenges in achieving meaningful European involvement due to divergent priorities among EU member states and skepticism towards intervention in African affairs. The text highlights the complexities of operational effectiveness in French military interventions, with factors such as institutional coordination, resource allocation, and strategic objectives influencing outcomes. France’s efforts to coordinate with EU initiatives and other international actors in the Sahel have been hindered by overlapping responsibilities, divergent mandates, and competition among stakeholders, leading to implementation challenges. Public opinion in Mali regarding French military presence has evolved from initial support to skepticism and criticism, fueled by perceptions of France’s colonial legacy, operational shortcomings, and conspiracy theories. President Macron’s approach to Africa seeks to redefine France’s relationship with its former colonies, emphasizing partnership and mutual respect while addressing historical grievances and promoting economic cooperation. Rising violence, political instability, and governance challenges in the Sahel region pose significant obstacles to France’s intervention efforts and highlight the need for comprehensive, sustainable solutions. France faces a dilemma between promoting democratic values and protecting its strategic interests in Africa, amidst shifting regional dynamics and growing scrutiny of its interventionist policies. Collaborative approaches with European partners and nuanced policy conversations are deemed essential for navigating this complex landscape.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Africa, France, Sahel, and Sub-Saharan Africa
384. Turkey’s 2024 Local Elections: Potential Effects on Domestic and Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Ahmet Erdi Öztürk
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- While local elections may not be as crucial as general elections, one can argue that these upcoming local elections hold an exceptionally important position for both Turkey and its region—indeed, even for the international system. It should be remembered that President Erdoğan has control over the state apparatus, which gives him bargaining chips with which to negotiate with the various political actors. While Erdoğan has the power to use state resources to negotiate with various actors who could potentially take votes from İmamoğlu or bring votes to Kurum, İmamoğlu brings to the table a possible alternative to Erdoğan’s hegemony in Turkey’s political arena (a hegemony which has been tarnished in many areas, particularly the economy, in recent years), along with his youth and his potential to appeal to various segments of society. Ekrem İmamoğlu’s re-election will not directly impact Turkey’s foreign policy, but it will influence the stance international power centres adopt towards Turkey. İmamoğlu will once again attract the attention of many Western power centres, particularly in the European Union. Considering Turkey’s significant role as a producer and consumer in the global defence industry, we can expect multinational corporations as well as countries to show an increased interest in İmamoğlu. It is a statement of fact to say that the results of the local elections in Istanbul could be a milestone for Turkish politics. If İmamoğlu emerges victorious in Istanbul on the evening of March 31, which appears likely at the moment, the local elections will mark the beginning of a marathon general election campaign. In this context, we can say that we are on the verge of re-entering the İmamoğlu vs Erdoğan period, which was interrupted during the 2023 elections.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, and International System
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
385. Relations Between Russia and Türkiye in The Context of The Syrian Conflict: From Edge of the War to Strategic Cooperation
- Author:
- Cenk Özatıcı and Polat Üründül
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This article analyses the changing dynamics in Turkish-Russian relations during the Syrian civil war. The Syrian civil war has had a significant impact on relations between Türkiye and Russia. Initially, at odds over Türkiye’s support for Syrian opposition forces and Russia’s support for the Assad regime, tensions peaked when the Turks shot down a Russian warplane. This paper argues that Türkiye’s security concerns, including threats from the Syrian regime and the PYD and Russia’s desire to remove obstacles to its national interests in Syria, have led to strategic cooperation between the two countries. Russia’s pragmatic approach to Türkiye’s security needs and its military dominance in Syria encouraged Türkiye to cooperate with the Russians. This cooperation, evident in projects such as the Astana process and arms deals, was also seen as an opportunity by Russia to weaken NATO and strengthen the Assad regime.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Military Intervention, Syrian War, and Strategic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
386. Portuguese Neutrality during World War II - A Case Study of Portuguese Foreign Policy Analysis
- Author:
- João Tavares
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- The main object of this investigation into Portuguese neutrality during the Second World War is to understand the reasons that led to the choice of neutrality and how the conceptual elements of the Foreign Policy Analyses and the historical events relating to the conflict conditioned the decision-making process. Portuguese foreign policy decision. Portuguese foreign policy under Salazar followed a set of guidelines that were based on norms and intangible elements, which allowed the regime to carry out its mission of ensuring its autonomy on the European continent and, simultaneously, guaranteeing the security of the colonies located in the rest of the world. The Portuguese option for neutrality is conditioned by a vast series of internal and external constraints, as well as an ideological coherence that is somewhat standardised in relation to previous events, where sometimes a lack of information and uncertainty regarding the other parties demolish ideal premises of the Rational Actor model. In the Portuguese case, as it was an idiosyncratic dictatorship in which the head of government centralised all the main decision-making powers within himself. However, he surrounded himself with capable elements and an information network, which excelled in bilaterality, to help with the decision-making task. Portugal had to position itself in the face of the conflict, and this highlights the alliances to which it was linked and which would influence decision-making. Salazar was aware that he could not marginalise Spain or ignore the importance of Great Britain.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, World War II, Estado Novo, and António de Oliveira Salazar
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Portugal
387. Blind Spot: America and the Palestinians with Khaled Elgindy (Episode 21)
- Author:
- Khaled Elgindy and Sahar Aziz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- The bilateral relationship between the U.S. and Israel has effectively blinded it to the most detrimental factors to the dissolution of the peace-brokering process, most notably the impact of Israeli occupation on Palestinian sovereignty and the legitimacy of international human rights law. Host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) will discuss these complex dynamics with author and political scientist Khaled Elgindy by decentering a unilateral perspective on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a socio-historical lens.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Sovereignty, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
388. Elections Aftermath, Session III: China, Taiwan, and the U.S.-Japan Alliance After the Elections
- Author:
- Andrew J. Nathan, Thomas Christensen, Satoru Mori, Ayumi Teraoka, and George Miller
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- In the third panel of the full-day conference co-sponsored by Columbia University and Keio University, authorities on East Asian and global politics delve into the challenges and opportunities arising from leadership transitions in both Tokyo and Washington and how the two allies can address security challenges surrounding the Taiwan Strait. (Please note: This is a partial video edited in accordance with speaker preferences.) Speakers: Andrew J. Nathan, Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science, Columbia University Thomas Christensen, James T. Shotwell Professor of International Relations, Columbia University Satoru Mori, Professor, Faculty of Law, Keio University Ayumi Teraoka, Postdoctoral Research Scholar and Lecturer, Columbia University George Miller, Associate Dean, Academic Affairs and Adjunct Professor, Columbia’s Journalism School (moderator)
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Taiwan, and United States of America
389. North Korea Since the 1990s and U.S.-North Korea Relations: Problems and Prospects
- Author:
- Haksoon Paik and Arvid Lukauskas
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Speaker: Haksoon Paik, President of the Academy of Kim Dae-jung Studies Moderator: Arvid Lukauskas, Executive Director, Picker Center for Executive Education and MPA in Economic Policy Management, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University This talk examines the strategic significance of North Korea and the Korean Peninsula for the United States and the world. It then discusses North Korea's political and economic landscape since the early 1990s, focusing on current developments. The talk highlights North Korea's security and foreign policies, emphasizing: (1) its strategy of survival and development for the 21st century, and (2) U.S.-North Korea relations, with a particular focus on nuclear and ballistic missile issues. It also reviews what happened at the Hanoi summit and the deep disillusionment among key stakeholders engaged in Korean Peninsula affairs following the failed Hanoi summit. The discussion then shifts to North Korea's recent alignment with Russia post-Hanoi, examining the implications of its mutual defense treaty with Russia for the Korean Peninsula, the Russia-Ukraine War, and broader regional and global politics. The talk considers the possibility of a renewed Cold War dynamic due to the geopolitical alignments surrounding the Koreas (US-Japan-South Korea vs. China-Russia-North Korea) and the increased threat of nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula. Finally, it concludes by highlighting challenges and prospects for improvement. This event was hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
390. Diplomatic Ties and Community Engagement: A Dialogue with U.S. Ambassadors
- Author:
- Edgard Kagan, Marc E. Knapper, Heather Roach Variava, Lien-Hang T. Nguyen, and Ann Marie Murphy
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Speakers: The Honorable Edgard Kagan, U.S. Ambassador to Malaysia The Honorable Marc E. Knapper, U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam The Honorable Heather Roach Variava, U.S. Ambassador to Laos Moderators: Lien-Hang T. Nguyen, Dorothy Borg Chair in the History of the United States and East Asia, Director of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University Ann Marie Murphy, Adjunct Senior Research Scholar; Professor and Director, Center for Foreign Policy Studies, School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University Background: In the vibrant landscape of international education and cultural exchange, the connections between the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are more significant than ever. Notably, almost 50,000 students from ASEAN member states enrich U.S. campuses with their perspectives, contributing to a rich tapestry of international dialogue. Furthermore, travel and tourism statistics from 2022 highlight the deepening of people-to-people ties, with nearly 578,000 visitors from ASEAN countries to the U.S. and almost 1.8 million Americans exploring the diverse cultures of ASEAN. Additionally, the vibrant Asian American community, with more than one-third of the estimated 24 million identifying with ASEAN ethnicities, underscores these regions' profound connections. Speakers' Bios: Edgard D. Kagan, a career member of the Senior Foreign Service, was most recently the Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for East Asia and Oceania at the National Security Council. Ambassador Kagan has previously served as Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. embassies in New Delhi, India and in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Deputy Assistant Secretary in the State Department’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Consul General at the U.S. Consulate General in Mumbai, India, and Deputy Director of the Washington Office of the U.S. Mission to the United Nations. A recipient of the Presidential Meritorious Award and numerous other State Department performance awards, Ambassador Kagan speaks French, Mandarin Chinese, Hungarian, and some Spanish. He is a cum laude graduate of Yale University. Marc E. Knapper is a member of the Senior Foreign Service of the U.S. Department of State and the Ambassador to Vietnam. He most recently served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Korea and Japan from August 2018 to July 2021. Prior to assuming this position, Marc was Chargé d’Affaires ad interim in Seoul from 2017 to 2018 and Deputy Chief of Mission from 2015 to 2016. Earlier assignments include Director for India Affairs, Director for Japan Affairs, and Seoul, Baghdad, Tokyo, and Hanoi. Marc is a recipient of the Secretary of State’s Distinguished Service Award, the nation’s highest diplomatic honor. Marc has also received a Presidential Meritorious Service Award and the Department of State’s Linguist of the Year Award. He is a summa cum laude graduate of Princeton University, and also studied at the University of Tokyo, Middlebury College’s intensive Japanese program, the Army War College, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Seminar XXI program. Marc speaks Korean, Japanese, and Vietnamese. Heather Variava was sworn in as the U.S. Ambassador to the Lao People’s Democratic Republic on January 19, 2024. She is a career member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Minister Counselor. Previously, she served as Deputy Chief of Mission and Chargé d’Affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Manila, Philippines. She also served as Deputy Chief of Mission and Chargé d’Affaires at the U.S. Mission to Indonesia, and as U.S. Consul General in Surabaya, Indonesia. In Washington, Ambassador Variava was Director of the Office of Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Bhutan in the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs at the U.S. Department of State. A member of the U.S. Foreign Service since 1996, Ambassador Variava has also served overseas in India, Mauritius, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Prior to joining the Foreign Service, Ambassador Variava worked as a newspaper reporter in Waterville, Maine. Raised in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Ambassador Variava received an undergraduate degree in International Relations from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. She holds master’s degrees from the University of Missouri and from the University of Sussex in the United Kingdom. In 2012, Ambassador Variava received a master’s degree in National Security Strategy from the National War College in Washington, D.C., and in 2014 she completed a fellowship in executive leadership with the International Women’s Forum (IWF). She is the recipient of numerous Meritorious and Superior Honor Awards, as well as a Presidential Rank Award. She speaks Indonesian and has studied Vietnamese, French, and German. This event is hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and co-sponsored by the New York Southeast Asian Network (NYSEAN).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, ASEAN, and Community Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Asia and United States of America
391. Strategic Change in U.S. Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Christopher S. Chivvis, Jennifer Kavanagh, Sahil Lauji, Adele Malle, Samuel Orloff, Stephen Wertheim, and Reid Wilcox
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Making strategic changes in foreign policy is difficult for the United States. Consider, for example, the challenges that former president Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden faced in their administrations’ efforts to withdraw U.S. military forces from Afghanistan. Despite years of failing efforts to bring peace and stability to that country, and limited evidence that much improvement would come without a major reorientation of the U.S. approach, resistance to changing course was enormous. It took an outsider, Donald Trump, to set the process in motion and a long-time insider, Joe Biden, to finish it. The early 1970s U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam, which very few would criticize today, also took several years, even after a huge protest movement at home and abroad demanded it. For strategic change to materialize, the election of a president who wants change is necessary but not sufficient. Trump’s effort to put America’s global role on a new course, whatever its strengths and weaknesses, is a case in point. In areas where his ideas challenged received wisdom in the Republican Party, Congress, or the national security bureaucracy, he was stymied. Only where Trump pursued goals already favored by important groups in the foreign policy establishment did he get results. For example, he was able to tear up the Iran nuclear deal because this action had long-standing and deep support among Republican leaders, but he failed to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria because few others agreed. Trump’s approach to foreign policy generated immense drama but limited change in America’s role in the world. Regardless of whether one thinks this outcome was for better or worse, it is testimony to the power of continuity in U.S. foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, History, Donald Trump, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
392. Inevitable Fractures: The Ukraine War and the Global System
- Author:
- Ashley J. Tellis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The divisions in contemporary geopolitics are an inevitable consequence of colliding ideas and interests against the backdrop of American primacy. The United States should accept their reality while advancing its own interests in a competitive strategic environment.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America
393. Transatlantic Policies on China: Is There a Role for Türkiye?
- Author:
- Sinan Ülgen and Temur Umarov
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Türkiye is an important transatlantic actor in Sino-Western competition. It can add value to Western efforts aimed at synchronizing policies toward a rising China. And yet, at present, Ankara’s policies on China are not harmonized with those of its partners in the West.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Strategic Competition, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia
394. Cooperation Between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia: Current and Potential Future Threats to America
- Author:
- Christopher S. Chivvis and Jack Keating
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Each one of these states threatens U.S. interests. Yet they are far from a coherent bloc and largely pose threats independent of one another.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea
395. The Sources of Russia’s Soft Power in Relation to Belarus
- Author:
- Ryszard Franciszek Ławniczak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to evaluate the sources of Russia’s soft power as a tool which should enable it to integrate Belarus more closely with Russia. The research question is as follows: what are Russia’s main sources of attractiveness, and what kind of instruments of soft power is the Russian government applying to achieve that aim? To what extent was this soft policy successful? The author applied a qualitative research method. It is inductive and allows the researcher to explore meanings and insights into Russia’s notion of “soft power” in its foreign policy toward Belarus. The basis of it lies in the interpretive approach to the present reality of Russia – Belarus political and economic relations and in the evaluation of Russian efforts to integrate its closest neighbour by using only non-military means.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Soft Power, and Information Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and Belarus
396. ¡Cómo hemos cambiado! La respuesta política de la Unión Europea ante la invasión rusa de Ucrania
- Author:
- Mercedes Guinea Llorente
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- La Unión Europea se ha visto fuertemente afectada por el conflicto derivado de la invasión rusa de Ucrania de 2022, que no solo amenaza su seguridad, sino que cuestiona su propio modelo. En este artículo analizamos los elementos de innovación que entraña la respuesta de la UE a la guerra en Ucrania. En una primera dimensión, estudiamos los aspectos institucionales relativos a las politics, donde puede verificarse un desarrollo de la PESC. En segundo lugar, analizamos las políticas formuladas para incidir en el conflicto, tanto las actuaciones políticas contra Rusia, como las medidas de apoyo a Ucrania. Se detectan muchos elementos de innovación que muestran una gran ambición, compromiso y determinación por parte de los Estados miembros que atestigua que son conscientes de que en Ucrania se juega su futuro.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
397. Identity and Foreign Policy: Comparative Studies of Indonesian and Malaysian Foreign Policies in Relation to Israel
- Author:
- Ali Muhammad, Ilham Agustian Candra, and Ahmad Sahide
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- This article compares the foreign policies of Indonesia and Malaysia towards Israel. Through the use of social constructivism, the study examines the extent to which the identity of the state plays a critical role in the foreign policy of both Muslim-majority countries. It argues that Malaysia's anti-Israeli policy and refusal to establish diplomatic relations with Israel is mainly due to its Muslim identity and pressure from Muslim constituencies. In the case of Indonesia, the main factors stem from its national identity, which is strongly anti-colonialist and antiimperialist, as enshrined in its national constitution. Although Muslim identity is also important in Indonesia, it is not the primary determining factor in the country's foreign policy towards Israel.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Constructivism, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Malaysia, Middle East, Israel, and Asia-Pacific
398. Wedged between East and West – The chances of an interest-based Hungarian foreign policy and the war in Ukraine
- Author:
- Andrea Schmidt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- Hungarian foreign policy has been in the international spotlight, raising doubts about its direction. The purpose of this article is to highlight the contradictions between an interest-based and a value-based foreign policy. A theoretical introduction is followed by a brief analysis of the elements of a pragmatic foreign policy. At the same time, the second part of the paper presents a short case study from the Western Balkans. The Hungarian position on two countries, Kosovo and Serbia, will be analysed, not forgetting that these two countries are examples of the changes that have taken place in the relations between Hungary and Serbia. Despite earlier nationalist tensions, Serbia has become Hungary's almost sole ally in the region, putting the minority issue in the background and adopting a pragmatic approach. In this essay, we will also try to identify the considerations that guided Hungarian diplomacy in its position towards the West. Finally, we will discuss the extent to which the original goal of "occupying Brussels" was realistic and the consequences of Hungary's pragmatic foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Conflict, Pragmatism, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Hungary, and Western Balkans
399. Russia and China in Central Asia: Cooperate, Compete, or De-conflict?
- Author:
- Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Lisa Curtis, Kate Johnston, and Nathaniel Schochet
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- Despite the many proclamations that Russian and Chinese interests would collide in Central Asia, Moscow and Beijing continue to work together in service of their shared objectives. These include, most importantly, keeping the United States and the West—and democracy—out of the region, maintaining stability, and pursuing economic benefits. Fissures between Moscow and Beijing exist, especially in the economic sphere, where China has become the more dominant power, and over the potential development of the Middle Corridor trade route, which could significantly disadvantage Russia. However, Russia and China are managing these divergences, and the overarching imperative to weaken the United States provides a powerful motive for reducing or preventing any friction from derailing their broader partnership. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened the Central Asian states’ apprehensions about Russia, including about its capacity to uphold its security role in the region. However, the Kremlin remains committed to maintaining its influence in the region, and the war in Ukraine is restructuring economic dynamics in ways that will enable the Kremlin to limit the extent of its declining economic influence. Looking forward, the most significant change in Russia-China relations in Central Asia is likely to occur in the security sphere, where China is likely to take on a greater role, especially as Russia’s military and security services are preoccupied in Ukraine and with the domestic challenges the war creates. Any rise in instability in the region—which could result from an uptick in terrorist threats in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, or from the region’s brittle autocracies—could propel China to step into a sphere where Russia has historically played the primary role but that the Kremlin will struggle to fulfill while the war in Ukraine continues. For Russia and China, Central Asia is also likely to be an important building block in their larger counterorder-building effort. The two countries are likely to sustain—and step up—their efforts to build an alternative order in Central Asia, including by deepening cooperation and broadening the number of countries participating in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to legitimize and demonstrate the benefits of their collective global leadership. This effort will face resistance from the Central Asian states that object to the concept of a Russia-China condominium of power in their region and have shown an ability to come together to resist attempts to turn the SCO into a forum that would strengthen a collective Russia-China security role in the region. The United States has an opportunity to redouble its engagement in Central Asia. The Central Asian states highly value U.S. political support for their independence and sovereignty, especially following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Washington can encourage greater connectivity and cohesion among the countries, demonstrating its support for their increasing cooperation with one another in ways that could strengthen the region’s economic attractiveness and political agency. This contrasts with the way in which Russia has traditionally dealt with the region, which is to try to capitalize on divisions and disputes among the countries. While it cannot match China dollar for dollar or supplant Russia’s cultural and political influence in the region, the United States can enhance its trade, investment, energy, counterterrorism, and diplomatic ties to these countries. Enhancing U.S. and European investment in Central Asia, especially for development of the Middle Corridor, could help prevent Russia and China from further deepening their grip on the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, Cooperation, Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Central Asia, and Asia
400. Beyond China's Black Box: Five Trends Shaping Beijing’s Foreign and Security Policy Decision-Making Under Xi Jinping
- Author:
- Jacob Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- China’s foreign and security policymaking apparatus is often described as a metaphorical black box about which analysts know little. That is true to an extent, but at the same time, it is possible to develop a better understanding of the people, institutions, processes, and pressures that go into making China’s policies toward the world during Xi’s “new era,” that is, his time as the country’s top leader. This report pursues that objective by identifying five major trends mostly internal to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) party-state system that shape its foreign and security policymaking. In addition, the paper describes the effects that each trend generates, from bureaucratic incentives to behavioral patterns. The first trend is personalization of the system around Xi. It reduces the influence of various interest groups and therefore the need to bargain with and among them, raises the prospect of groupthink among the loyalists Xi has surrounded himself with, and potentially increases the importance of achieving certain goals for China on Xi’s watch. In addition, Xi’s centrality creates a major management bottleneck that could hamper the system during even brief absences. The second trend is empowering the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over the state. That trend has made more officials into policy-implementers rather than policymakers, even on issues below the level of strategy. It has also increased central demands for ideological activities, such as Xi Jinping Thought study sessions. At the same time, while the leadership wants to improve coordination and might be making some progress, it stops short of actions that could allow government organs to coordinate horizontally if doing so might plausibly jeopardize the center’s control. The third trend is domestic policy headwinds and the search for alternative forms of political legitimacy for the CCP. This creates two contradictory pressures: China’s reaching out and trying to improve ties with the world, and its turn to an assertive and at times even aggressive form of nationalism to counteract stalling economic growth. It also dents the power and influence China gained through its rapid rise and its role as a massive market driving global economic growth. The fourth trend is further elevation of regime security over other concerns. This trend negatively affects Beijing’s ties with foreign countries by worsening the experience of foreigners visiting and living in China, exporting repressive political ideas and techniques to the world, and complicating how China’s foreign and security bureaucracy interacts with its counterparts. The fifth and final trend is diplomatic and military assertiveness and seeking an active global leadership role, which feeds a self-reinforcing cycle of growing tensions, requires PRC diplomats to shoehorn any activities into Xi’s marquee frameworks, and leads Beijing to build out structures of an alternative international order. Examining these trends helps illuminate the macro pressures shaping China’s foreign and security policy decision-making. Still, aspects of how the party-state makes decisions about its foreign and security policies—“known unknowns” —remain particularly opaque. These include information flows to senior leaders, the dynamic among Xi and his top advisors, and the structure and frequency of important meetings. More knowledge in those areas might shed light on larger questions related to whether there are informal constraints on Xi’s power and how Xi is thinking about eventual transfer of power.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Xi Jinping, and Decision-Making
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia