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141. Strengthening Alliances: The strategic importance of the Russian foreign minister's Asian tour

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On Friday, July 11, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov embarked on a high-level diplomatic tour encompassing North Korea and China, aiming to coordinate efforts on several pressing issues of mutual concern. Lavrov's visit to Pyongyang occurred as part of the second round of strategic dialogue between senior diplomats. Meanwhile, his trip to China coincided with his participation in the ministerial meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The meeting served as preparation for the anticipated Russian-Chinese presidential summit scheduled for August 2025, during which officials are expected to discuss the current state and future prospects of the SCO's activities, along with regional and international developments.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Affairs, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, and North Korea

142. Foreign policy congruence in Africa: Evidence on free movement and free trade

Author:
Florian G. Kern, Martin C. Steinwand, and Samira Diebire
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does foreign policy of African governments reflect the preferences of their constituents? Scholars have studied public opinion in Africa and how constituents assess government performance. Yet social scientists neglect how and why foreign policy by African governments reflects public opinion, despite much anecdotal evidence of citizens expressing opinion on African foreign policy. In this paper, we investigate the congruence of governmental foreign policy positions and public opinion on issues of free movement and free trade across 34 African countries. We explore two drivers of foreign policy congruence: first democratic vs. autocratic government, and second external rents accruing from natural resources, aid, and remittances. Our descriptive evidence suggests that, on free trade, African publics tend to be more trade-sceptic than the liberalised policy positions of their governments, meaning low foreign policy congruence. On free movement, low foreign policy congruence stems from African constituents preferring more liberalisation than what governments provide. Surprisingly, multivariate analysis indicates that democracies show lower foreign policy congruence than autocracies on issues of free trade. We argue that this may be because democracies systemically oversupply market liberalisation. We cannot find an effect of external rents on foreign policy congruence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Free Trade, Freedom of Movement, and Globalism
Political Geography:
Africa

143. ‘Brazil is a Christian and Conservative Country with Family as its Foundation’: The Role of Defender of the Faith in Bolsonaro’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Mónica Salomón and Luis Gustavo de Araújo Zimmer
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
: Foreign policy analysts have used role theory for decades. Several recent studies have resorted to it to describe and explain Brazilian foreign policy. By complementing current efforts that seek to account for the restructuring of Brazil’s international identity undertaken by the Bolsonaro government, this article focuses on a role relatively neglected by literature, i.e., the one Holsti called ‘defender of the faith.’ In the case of Bolsonaro’s foreign policy, the faith to be defended is that of ‘Judeo-Christian civilisation’ values in its most conservative interpretation. After identifying this role in statements by official representatives of Brazilian foreign policy, we examine both its primary internal sources (the political actors identified with religious-conservative agendas in the National Congress) and its external sources (the ‘conservative transnational’ of governments close to Bolsonaro’s), to then illustrate its performance through two sets of initiatives representing drastic changes in Brazilian diplomatic positions: the support to Israel in the voting of UN’s resolutions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the shift from progressive to conservative positions in discussions on gender rights in multilateral venues.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Gender, Role Theory, and Ultraconservatism
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

144. Causal Explanation in Brazilian International Relations

Author:
Enzo Lenine
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
How do Brazilian IR scholars tailor causal explanations in their research? Searching for causes has become paramount to the scientific endeavour in the social sciences, and in recent years the lexicon of causality has come under scrutiny, with many scholars revising the standard Humean and covering law approaches to cause. Far from being consensual, current philosophical and meta-theoretical debates in IR reveal a rather kaleidoscopical picture of causation. However, Brazilian IR scholars seem to remain unfamiliar about what it means to advance causal claims. In this paper, I have a twofold goal: to advance the causal talk by rehearsing recent meta-theoretical debates on causality; and to examine the ways Brazilian IR scholars in the subfield of Brazilian foreign policy analysis (BFPA) tailor causal explanations. To achieve the latter, I perform a cartography of the articles published in five Brazilian top-tier journals in the discipline – Brazilian Political Science Review, Dados, Contexto Internacional, Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais and Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional – from 2018 through 2022. I conclude that BFPA research is founded primarily in non-Humean understandings of causality, but Brazilian scholars might benefit from further awareness on the various meanings of causal explanation.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Relations Theory, and Causality
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

145. The Crises and Agony of International Development Cooperation: Consequences for Brazilian Foreign Policy

Author:
Pietro Carlos De Souza Rodrigues and Patricia Andrade de Oliveira Silva
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
At the beginning of this century, International Development Cooperation (IDC) began to occupy a central position in Brazil’s international status. Political and social transformations created conditions for Brazil to begin acting as a relevant protagonist in international projects, especially in developing nations, through South-South Cooperation (SSC). However, a succession of crises after 2011 and the emergence of ideas opposed to cooperation during the Bolsonaro administration (2019-2022) altered the conditions that sustained IDC as part of Brazilian foreign policy. In this article, we will identify the political and economic conditions that ensured (1) the structuring and (2) the growth of Brazilian cooperation up until 2011, and we will argue that the loss of these conditions resulted in IDC’s (3) decline, leading to (4) its agony beginning in 2019. Finally, we will evaluate several consequences of the cooperation crisis based on an evaluation of Brazilian foreign policy in the global health agenda, and its commercial relationship with African nations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, International Cooperation, Global South, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

146. Hidden on the Stage: Racism and Brazilian Foreign Policy in the FESMAN ’66

Author:
João Montenegro Pires
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs organized the country’s contributions in the World Festival of Black Arts (FESMAN, Festival Mundial das Artes Negras) in Senegal in 1966 so as to demonstrate the exceptionality of racial relations in Brazil, expressed under the label of ‘racial democracy.’ The importance attributed to reaffirming Brazilian exceptionality was related to a strategic selectivity of the State aimed at privileging the continuous reconstitution of racism, intrinsically necessary to the reproduction of capital in general and, in particular, in the Brazilian social formation. The case illustrates how racial democracy represented a discursive reference that allowed the State to simultaneously organize the power block and disorganize the opposition from the dominated classes. The Brazilian racial fantasy taken to FESMAN covered up material inequality, made it challenging to identify Afro-Brazilians as a group, and hindered the formation of transnational ties with Pan-Africanism. The current article intends to enrich theoretical reflection on the reasons and ways racism affects the content of Brazilian foreign policy
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Pan-Africanism, Marxism, and State Theory
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

147. Bolsonaro’s Foreign Policy in Laerte Coutinho’s Cartoons

Author:
Gelson Fonseca Júnior and Cristine Koehler Zanella
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
This article examines former President Jair Bolsonaro’s foreign policy through Laerte Coutinho’s cartoons, published in the Folha de São Paulo newspaper, contextualised within Brazilian opening speeches at the UN General Assembly’s Annual Debate from 2019 to 2021. The work is epistemologically tied to the aesthetic turn in International Relations, broadly in line with a post-structuralist approach and uses iconographic analysis (including the tools of particular meanings and each cartoon’s situational context) and iconological interpretation methods (applying area concepts to explain foreign policy elements revealed through the sensitivity of the chosen works). Consequently, we identified that the cartoons effectively convey former President Bolsonaro’s approach to Brazilian foreign policy (BFP). It is an alternative epistemological and methodological approach to understanding international affairs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Jair Bolsonaro, Iconography, Cartoons, and Laerte Coutinho
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

148. Peeking Behind the Arches: An Examination of Diplomats’ Party Affiliations and Candidacies in Brazil

Author:
Vinicius Silva Santos
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
This article explores the intricate dynamics between Brazilian diplomats and political parties within the realm of foreign policy. Our central research problem is to uncover how the interplay of the party system’s structure, the attributes and ideologies of political parties, and the aspirations of bureaucrats collectively influence the extent of diplomats’ involvement in formal party-political activities. Despite the growing attention to partisanship in Brazilian foreign policy debate, empirical research and methodological approaches to measure the concept are limited. The construct validity of the term is often confused with ideologization and politicization. Moreover, the involvement of Brazilian bureaucrats in party politics lacks comprehensive investigation. To address these gaps, this study examines the relationship between diplomats and political parties, uncovering its multifaceted dimensions and implications. Using a novel data source, we explore diplomats’ affiliations and candidacies, shedding light on interaction patterns during the Nova República period. We present a set of hypotheses investigating the association between diplomats’ party affiliations and their interactions with a) party ideologies (H1) and b) professional ambitions, delineated into i) intra-bureaucratic advantages (H2.1) and ii) political career aspirations (H2.2). By employing a mixed methods approach, incorporating thematic content analysis, descriptive statistics, and hypothesis testing, we aggregated evidence that substantiates hypotheses H1 and H2.2. However, in the case of H2.1, the findings proved inconclusive, prompting the need for further exploration into the topic.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Affiliation, Political Parties, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

149. 10 Years of Observing US-Russia Relations (09/18/2025)

Author:
Timothy Frye, Samuel Greene, Nina Khrushcheva, Maria Snegovaya, Joshua Tucker, and Alexander Cooley
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
Please join the New York University Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia and Harriman Institute at Columbia University for the concluding event in the New York-Russia Public Policy series, held in person at NYU. This panel of four distinguished researchers and commentators on Russia will reflect on a decade of observing U.S.-Russia relations, how the two countries represent their relations and understand their interests, and the challenges inherent in communicating the many nuances of these relationships. Our panelists will also speculate on what we are likely to see in the next decade to come.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

150. Relaciones de España con Marruecos y Argelia y consecuencias para Ceuta y Melilla

Author:
Carlos Echeverría Jesús
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Morocco claims territories belonging to Spain and Algeria. Ceuta, Melilla, the Vélez de la Gomera and Alhucemas Rocks and the Chafarinas islands, from Spain, and the so-called Eastern Sahara from Algeria. Morocco considers that the Kingdom suffers a “territorial deficit”, and this perception remains today and will remain in the future as an obstacle for the consolidation of stable relations in the region.
Topic:
Regional Politics, Foreign Policy, Territory, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Morocco, Spain, Europe, and North Africa

151. Europe’s Strategic Imperative: Advancing Sustainability for Global Stability

Author:
Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Europe’s long-term security depends not only on military strength, but also on global stability shaped by sustainable development and effective multilateralism. From the outset, Donald Trump’s second presidency has placed additional strain on an international system already under pressure, further weakening key pillars of the rules-based international order. Geopolitical divisions continue to paralyse the UN Security Council on critical issues. In this increasingly fragmented landscape, the EU must advance a dual security imperative: strengthening its defence capabilities while tackling the root causes of instability beyond its borders. This policy note outlines six strategic priorities for the EU to advance security through sustainability: (i) implementing the UN Pact for the Future; (ii) helping finance global sustainability through more innovative and coordinated mechanisms; (iii) shaping a strategy for EU engagement with the Global South that reflects geopolitical realities and mutual interests; (iv) delivering on the promise of Global Gateway by addressing operational shortcomings and sharpening its strategic focus; (v) rethinking the SDG framework beyond 2030 to sustain global development momentum; and (vi) winning the battle of narratives through stronger, more strategic communication and credible engagement. These priorities are examined against the backdrop of growing geopolitical fragmentation and structural vulnerabilities that shape both global stability and Europe’s strategic outlook.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Political stability, Multilateralism, Economic Development, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Europe

152. Will the New Government Safely Navigate Belgium through Turbulent International Waters?

Author:
Wannes Verstraete
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
“Yes, our country is vulnerable”, said Belgian Major-General Phaleg Bernard during a hearing in the Defence Commission from the Chamber of Representatives in October 2024. The remarks by him and other senior officers stressed the urgent necessity of accelerating the modernisation of Belgium’s military forces at a moment when the government negotiations were ongoing. By the end of January 2025, these negotiations proved to be successful. The new De Wever Government released its coalition agreement and was sworn in on 3 February 2025. As is often the case in Belgium, the coalition is made up of different ideological parties, namely the N-VA (conservative Flemish nationalist); MR (Francophone liberals); cd&v (Flemish Christian democrats); Les Engagés (Francophone centrists); and Vooruit (Flemish social democrats). The national security sections of the new coalition agreement are spread throughout the document and can be found in the parts on foreign affairs, defence, and elsewhere. In comparison with former governments, the new coalition agreement showcases an increased ambition and formulates some of the minimum necessary adjustments. The previous 2020 coalition agreement was 97 pages long in total and contained 2 pages on defence, 5 pages on foreign affairs, and 2 on development. The new 2025 agreement is 199 pages long and contains 8 pages on defence and 11 pages on foreign affairs and development.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Belgium

153. Understanding Uganda’s (ambiguous) actions in Eastern DRC: Military interventions to protect roads and trade?

Author:
Kristof Titeca and Giovanni Salvaggio
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Much attention has been given to the role of Rwanda in the conflict in Eastern DRC, and its support to M23. Much less attention has been given to the role of Uganda. In this briefing, we aim to fill this gap. We will show how that Uganda’s presence in Eastern DRC has strong economic under- and overtones: much of Uganda’s actions are centered around protecting trade and roads in Eastern DRC. This builds on historical relations between Uganda and Congolese traders – particularly the Nande and Hema business community – with whom it had been discussing these issues in the years prior to their military intervention. In doing so, Uganda primarily protects its own interests, and has ambiguous relations with all key-actors in the conflict – M23, Kigali and Kinshasa. We will show this by first explaining the broader history of economic relations between Uganda and Eastern DRC, and second, link this to its current actions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, Trade, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Central Africa

154. Military policy toward China: The case against overreaction

Author:
John Mueller
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
It is often argued that the policies of containment and military deterrence worked against the Soviet threat during the Cold War, and many have urged applying these same policies to China today. However, it is not clear that containment was all that successful during the Cold War nor is it clear that it should now be applied to China. Should it pursue the “hegemonic” ambitions often attributed to it, China, like the USSR, may prove its own worst enemy by overstretching its resources and provoking its neighbors. In any case, China does not seem to harbor hegemonic ambitions. Its existing gestures at global influence, like the Belt and Road Initiative, are in disarray and unlikely to work. Rather than rushing to more forcefully contain or balance China, the United States should let China make its own mistakes. Doing nothing or next to nothing against a perceived threat isn’t always wise or politically popular but in this case it’s the most rational choice. The U.S. can wait for China to mellow while warily profiting from China’s economic size and problems to the degree possible and expanding mutually beneficial exchange. The U.S. can also help Taiwan prepare to defend itself while maintaining that the island is independent so long as it doesn’t say so.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Deterrence, and Containment
Political Geography:
China and Asia

155. From Stalemate to Solution: Rethinking EU Approaches to Bilateral Disputes in the Context of Enlargement

Author:
Steven Blockmans and Butrint Berisha
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In cataloguing the various disputes, this report distinguishes between disputes involving a member state and a candidate country, and those between candidate countries themselves, classifying them into categories such as statehood identity issues post-conflict issues, border demarcation and/or territorial disputes, minority rights protection, and economic issues. While many disputes exist among candidate countries, the more challenging ones for the EU to resolve are those which involve a member state. Member states can strategically misuse their veto power in the pre-accession process to gain political leverage over a candidate country, as currently seen with Bulgaria vis-à-vis North Macedonia and Hungary towards Ukraine. The authors argue that the ability to manage and resolve them is not merely a technical requirement for enlargement but increasingly a strategic necessity for the EU in a more conflicted geopolitical environment. In reviewing past practice, the report highlights the EU’s non-interventionist approach before the early 2000s, noting how the EU itself served as a framework for cooperation and dispute resolution, as demonstrated in the case of Northern Ireland. Around the time of the ‘big bang’ enlargement of 2004, the EU’s approach underwent a shift, with the prior resolution of disputes increasingly becoming a condition for accession. However, this long-standing expectation warrants a critical re-examination in light of inconsistencies in policy application, stagnation in existing dispute settlement mechanisms, mounting blockades, and the rise of nativist populism in Europe. The report assesses a wide range of EU instruments and third-party resolution mechanisms provided by the Council of Europe, United Nations, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, and the Permanent Court of Arbitration. Existing proposals to overcome the misuse of veto power are also analysed. The authors argue that a more strategic, consistent, and principle-based approach to dispute resolution—supported by legal tools, political incentives, and coordination with third-party actors—is essential to re-dynamise the enlargement process and sustain the EU’s credibility as a promoter of peace, stability, and integration. To that end, they emphasise that the Commission should abandon the habit of seeking unanimity at every interim step of the enlargement process, which is not prescribed by EU law, and that the EU should create an Enlargement Dispute Resolution Mechanism (EDRM) that separates between issues that fall under the aquis chapters for membership negotiations and those that should rely on external arbitration and mediation. Furthermore, they advocate that the EU should double down on its preventive efforts to manage latent bilateral disputes through early-warning diplomacy and structured dialogue.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe

156. Russia and the Red Sea since 2022: Militarised Foreign Policy or Strategy of Conflict?

Author:
Ivan Ulises Klyszcz
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Accounting for over 10% of world trade, the Red Sea is an essential waterway and a chokepoint for international shipping. Piracy, instability, and inter-state conflict are long-term challenges that have kept regional and extra-regional powers engaged in contributing to the security of the area. Since 19 October 2023, the Red Sea attacks on commercial shipping by the Yemen-based Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) have only raised the stakes. In this context, Russian engagements with the region deserve scrutiny. Crucially, between January 2022 and August 2024, Russia’s share of the total oil transit through the Suez Canal jumped from just above 0% to almost 70%.[1] Moscow’s reported support for the Houthi movement, its search for a naval base on the Red Sea shores, and its broader military diplomacy raise questions about the Kremlin’s intentions in the area. What is Russia’s approach to the Red Sea? How does it fit into Moscow’s broader aggressive foreign policy?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Piracy, Conflict, Houthis, and Shipping
Political Geography:
Russia, Yemen, and Red Sea

157. Francophonie: A Subtle Response to Revisionist Powers

Author:
Arthur Leveque and Justin Leveque
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The Organisation de la Francophonie (OIF) has long been a platform where France can reach out to its partners outside Europe. President Emmanuel Macron’s appearance at the latest 2024 Villers-Cotterêts OIF summit testifies to his willingness to defend a French concept of globalisation based on “a diplomacy that stands for sovereignty and territorial integrity” without “double standards.”[1] President Macron reiterated the outward vision of his government, extending his foreign policy to that of the entire Francophonie—seen as a French “area of influence.” The French president declaimed his resolute support for nations whose sovereignty and territorial integrity are in jeopardy, such as Ukraine, Armenia, Lebanon, and the Indo-Pacific countries. Undoubtedly, his speech was addressed to both his non-European partners tempted to apply double standards when Ukraine is mentioned and to revisionist powers like Russia and China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Globalization, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe and France

158. Seven Inaccuracies about US Support for Somaliland

Author:
Joshua Meservey
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Amid reports that President-elect Donald Trump’s administration may consider recognizing the self-governing coastal region of Somaliland as independent from Somalia, Somali Ambassador to the United States Dahir Hassan Abdi wrote an op-ed arguing that the US should support a unified Somali state. But the ambassador’s argument relies on numerous inaccuracies. Those are detailed below. 1. Somalia currently has territorial integrity, and recognizing Somaliland would break that integrity. The Somali government does not currently have territorial integrity. Islamist terror group al-Shabaab still controls parts of the country. Somaliland has not been functionally a part of Somalia for decades. And Puntland and Jubaland frequently defy Mogadishu. Arguments premised on fictions are irretrievably broken. 2. The US-Somalia partnership has “bolstered regional stability.” The region is as unstable as it has been for decades. 3. “Clan-based ambitions threaten to fracture Somalia’s national cohesion.” There is no national cohesion to fracture, in part because clans remain the fundamental ordering principle of Somalia’s society. Rather than denying that reality, Somalis should build a highly decentralized order that accounts for their preeminent loyalty to clan. The US and its partners should stop pretending that a strong centralized government can work in Somalia. 4. “The United States must remain committed to Somalia’s sovereignty within its recognized 1960 borders—an enduring policy that has helped stabilize one of the world’s most strategically vital regions.” This is one of Abdi’s strangest claims. Somalia has consistently been among the least stable countries in the world since 1969, and it has in turn caused massive regional unrest. US policy built on the fiction that Somalia is a unified nation with territorial integrity has demonstrably failed. 5. “A divided Somalia would distract the central government from counterterrorism operations and disrupt the successes already achieved.” Again, Somalia is already divided. Also, Mogadishu already allows all sorts of things, usually petty political squabbles, to distract it from fighting al-Shabaab. The Somali government’s easily distracted nature has proven time and again that it is not a competent counterterrorism partner for the US. 6. “A unified Somalia . . . can foster transparency, attract responsible investment, and ensure its people benefit from [the country’s] resources—all while reinforcing the stable environment in which US interests can flourish.” The Somali government cannot achieve these lofty goals because Somalia is not unified. Decades of experience demonstrate the country will continue to be divided for the foreseeable future. And it is not clear that unity in Somalia would lead to transparency or competent governance. Mogadishu currently demonstrates neither of those things. There is no reason to believe it will magically improve, even if Somalia somehow, for the first time in its people’s history, becomes unified. 7. “By helping Somalia strengthen its institutions, enhance security forces, and foster inclusive political dialogue, the United States ensures that clan affiliations enrich national identity rather than fracture it into competing states.” The US and others have formed policy based on this belief for over a decade. It has not worked. Why should it suddenly begin working now? What has changed? Fundamentally, the ambassador’s arguments—and Washington’s current policy toward Somalia—rest on fictions: (a) that Somalia is united, politically or societally, (b) that the government in its current form contributes to regional stability, and (c) that Mogadishu’s actions are a net positive for the US. Washington cannot achieve its goals in the Horn of Africa without first acknowledging reality and building policies that reflect that reality, rather than comforting fictions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Africa, Somaliland, and United States of America

159. A Better Understanding of Nigeria’s Problems

Author:
James Barnett
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
In a recent post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump instructed the United States military to prepare to go into Nigeria “guns-a-blazing.” The development may be surprising for some, but those who closely follow US-Nigeria relations should not be surprised that the president, or Republicans more broadly, would express concern over violence against Christians in Nigeria. The president cited this violence as his basis for threatening military action on November 1, one day after announcing that he would redesignate Nigeria as a country of particular concern (CPC) for violations of religious freedom. But there are two fundamental problems with the approach the president has outlined: The nature of militant violence in Nigeria is more complicated. First, the premise that Christians in Nigeria face something akin to nationwide persecution is questionable, as Christians and Muslims alike suffer from Nigeria’s rampant insecurity. Nigeria is not, as some believe, the site of a concerted war against Christians. Rather, the country faces something more like a death by a thousand cuts, in which various militant groups in different corners of the country degrade state sovereignty, causing increased violence and extremism. Military intervention comes with serious risks. Depending on their scale, scope, and form, US military operations in Nigeria could recklessly destabilize Africa’s most populous country. On the other hand, operations could be limited in impact and largely symbolic. The latter scenario is more likely but not without its own risks. If the US insists on being a more highly visible military partner than it has traditionally been, its strategy may contradict Nigerian preferences and further polarize Nigerian society. The Nigerian government could have taken steps to reduce the chances of American intervention. But officials have at least made it clear over the past 48 hours that they do not seek to escalate the situation. It is entirely conceivable that President Trump will walk back his maximalist initial salvo and settle for some form of renewed bilateral security cooperation. While this is unlikely to affect the state of Nigeria’s conflicts in the near term, it would be politically agreeable to both governments. The Trump administration and Nigerian officials should both recognize certain truths. The US administration needs to understand that (a) Nigeria cannot immediately and effortlessly dismantle all militant networks within its borders, and (b) religiously divisive narratives will make it harder for the Nigerian government to achieve the necessary political consensus to tackle insecurity. Abuja, for its part, should understand that many in Congress are frustrated with Nigeria, in part because they believe the country has repeatedly failed to utilize American security assistance effectively against terrorists. With sufficient political will, President Bola Tinubu’s administration could use this crisis to (1) reform Nigerian security forces so that they can combat terrorism better, and (2) address some of the conflict’s underlying drivers. This would be the best potential outcome of the current situation, one that is by no means guaranteed. Before considering what this resolution might entail, American policymakers should understand some essential context about insecurity in Nigeria.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

160. Next Steps for Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace

Author:
Luke Coffey
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
History was made at the White House on August 8, 2025, when President Donald Trump hosted Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for a landmark meeting. Against all odds, and after more than three decades of failed diplomacy by the international community, the two leaders from the Caucasus signed a joint declaration committing to a final peace treaty that will normalize relations between their countries. Their foreign ministers also initialed a draft version of that treaty, which the countries plan on fully ratifying within the next 12 months. Diplomats brokered this breakthrough not in Moscow, Paris, or Brussels—but in Washington. For decades, the South Caucasus has been a flashpoint for regional competition, unresolved wars, and missed diplomatic opportunities. Now, with US reengagement, real peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan may finally be within reach. It is reasonable to assume that President Trump’s instinctive urge to cut deals—along with his desire to go down in history as an international peacemaker and statesman—drove his determination to lead efforts to end the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. The deal also gave him the chance to tie up a loose end from his first administration. Despite Trump’s frequent claims that no new wars started under his watch, the 2020 Second Karabakh War erupted in the final year of his presidency. His administration made no meaningful effort to bring it to a close, creating a vacuum that Moscow filled by brokering a ceasefire agreement—one it ultimately proved unable to enforce. But President Trump could also recognize an opportunity when presented with one. In many ways, he was pushing at an open door. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan understand the importance of normalization and peace. Both are also exhausted by Moscow’s failed mediation efforts and its waning regional clout. The White House would be mistaken in assuming that since the headlines have passed, the cameras have stopped recording, and the signing ceremony is complete, the job is finished. Three big challenges are still on the horizon: Questions remain about Prime Minister Pashinyan’s political stability, which could be undermined, especially in the lead-up to Armenia’s parliamentary elections next June, as hardline nationalists and Moscow-backed groups inside Armenia challenge his authority and the legitimacy of the peace process. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan should expect Russia and Iran to try to discredit the peace process by launching disinformation campaigns. Many questions remain unanswered about how the regional transport links envisioned in the peace agreement—including the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)—will be funded and financed. Without a resolution of these challenges, President Trump might lose interest in the peace initiative. Only his direct oversight can ensure its success.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and United States of America