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4512. Challenges for a New Administration
- Author:
- Aleksandar D. Jovovic
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the fall 2000 meetings of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of possible foreign policy strategic surprises facing the incoming Administration. To provide a starting point for the discussion, working group members identified more than a dozen scenarios that could: Take a new administration by surprise (an event not covered in the transition briefing books). Present a considerable challenge to the President. Pose a significant discontinuity or shift in the current trend line.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
4513. Colombia at the Crossroads
- Author:
- Aleksandar D. Jovovic
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the spring session of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of strategic surprise in Colombia. After a presentation on four potential scenarios that may face Colombia (see next page), Schlesinger Working Group core members and Colombia specialists examined the key factors driving events in this conflict-scarred country, as well as possible outcomes for current political initiatives. Among other issues, the participants touched on the range and dynamics of the present conflict, its effects on Colombian institutions, the country's neighbors, as well as on the role of powerful outside players, primarily the United States. Upon defining these key factors, participants identified a broad outline for future policy towards Colombia, which would safeguard key U.S. interests, defined as an end to the conflict, political and economic stability in the region, and the suppression of the drug trade. The following report is based on the informal and general findings of the group and is therefore not a consensus document.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America
4514. Public Opinion As A Constraint On U.S. Foreign Policy: Assessing The Perceived Value Of American And Foreign Lives
- Author:
- John Mueller
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- Although Americans are extremely sensitive to American casualties, they seem to be remarkably insensitive to casualties suffered by foreigners including essentially uninvolved—that is, innocent—civilians. Several conclusions emerge from an examination of all the cases in which American troops have been deployed on a non-advisory basis since 1941 in situations that were actually or potentially dangerous.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
4515. Report on IRFA and Annual Report on International Religious Freedom
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- One of the guiding purposes and principles behind the International Religious Freedom Act (IRFA) is to make the issue of international religious freedom an integral part of this nation's foreign policy agenda. The conditions of religious freedom in certain countries may be grave and deteriorating—in many instances on account of factors beyond the control of the United States—but not, if the IRFA process is working properly and vigorously, on account of a lack of attention paid to the issue as a matter of U.S. foreign policy. This report of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom assesses the vitality and effectiveness of certain parts of the IRFA process as it is functioning in its second year.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States
4516. East Asia and the United States: Current Status and Five-Year Outlook
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The National Intelligence Council and the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress held a one-day unclassified conference on this topic on 17 February 2000, at the Thomas Jefferson Building of the Library of Congress. Seven papers by nongovernment specialists and 11 commentaries by Intelligence Community specialists examined: The likely development of greater divergence or convergence between key East Asian states and the United States over US policies and interests in the region. Whether divergence or convergence between East Asian states and the United States was more likely on security, economic, or political/values questions. In what ways East Asian states would be likely to collaborate in opposition to US policies and interests. Sixty US Intelligence Community, other Executive Branch, congressional, and nongovernment experts participated actively in discussions following the formal papers and commentaries, reinforcing the findings presented below.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and East Asia
4517. Battling International Bribery 2000
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Bribery of foreign public officials by businesses is a serious problem in the international marketplace. This corrupt practice penalizes firms that play by the rules and compete on the merits of their products and services. But the damage is not limited to billions of dollars of lost exports. Bribery of public officials in commercial dealings undermines good governance, retards economic development and is especially damaging to developing countries and those in transition to market economies.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
4518. Prospects for WTO Trade Negotiations After Seattle: Foreign Strategies and Perspectives
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In a recent conference, trade experts identified three primary reasons the World Trade Organization (WTO) failed to launch a new trade Round at its December 1999 Ministerial. First, leading members were unable to resolve differences on critical issues prior to the gathering. In addition, many developing countries and nongovernmental organizations were more assertive than they had been at previous conferences. Finally, in recent years, the WTO has expanded the range of issues it addresses, which has made efforts to reach a consensus on any point more difficult. According to the speakers, as a result of the acrimonious Ministerial, the WTO has suffered a substantial loss of credibility, which will impair efforts to launch a new Round in the near term. There is no immediate alternative to strong US leadership, and WTO negotiations will be more complicated because developing countries and nongovernmental organizations will be more inclined to resist trade liberalization efforts that they believe do not advance their interests. Experts at the conference offered a variety of assessments regarding the course the WTO might choose to follow this year. The majority argued that if the trade body is seeking to rebuild confidence, it could continue with scheduled meetings on agriculture and services and use the time to rebuild confidence. A minority, however, held that the forum is too fractured to make progress, thus talks would only undermine the already declining prestige of the trade body. The experts identified several long-run challenges that the WTO will probably need to address to be an effective decisionmaking institution, including: Bridging the developed-developing country gap Costa Rica, Mexico, and South Africa generally support trade liberalization and have credibility among developed and developing states; thus they are in a position to meld the interests of the two sides. Enacting institutional reforms The organization's expansive agenda and large membership require that it adopt policies that facilitate decisionmaking, especially before new members such as China and Russia join. The trade body may try to increase transparency to promote greater trust in its procedures. Also, to avoid protracted and bitter selections such as the forum suffered last year, the WTO could review its procedures for electing a new director general. Managing the backlash against globalization Supporters of freer trade could launch a massive educational program to highlight the gains for all countries from expanded trade and to counter the dire assertions made by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia and China
4519. First Annual Report
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This is the first report of the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (Commission), created by the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (IRFA). IRFA established a multi-faceted program for ensuring that religious freedom has a permanent and significant place in the formulation and application of U.S. foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States
4520. Indonesian Democratic Transition: Implications for United States Policy
- Author:
- James J. Przystup, Ronald N. Montaperto, Gerald W. Faber, and Adam Schwarz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The onset of the Asian economic crisis in May 1997 assured the end of the tottering "New Order" regime of President Suharto. Economic collapse re-energized social and political grievances long muted by the cumulative effects of steady economic growth and political repression. In May 1998, the discredited Suharto regime collapsed. In June 1999, democratic elections led to the formation of a reform government led by President Abdurrahman Wahid.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia